Solar eclipse of the 29 March 2006: Results of the optical measurements by MORTI over Almaty (43.03°N, 76.58°E)

The observations of the upper mesosphere region (∼95 km altitude) in the period of 27–30 March 2006 using mesopause oxygen rotational temperature imager (MORTI) at Almaty (43.03°N, 76.58°E) are presented in this report to illustrate the mesosphere response to the solar eclipse (SE) event, which occurred on 29 March 2006. The nighttime volume emission rates and rotational temperatures, obtained from MORTI measurements, show appreciable differences in the pattern of wave-like oscillations observed during the period of interest. These oscillations are possibly due to the SE. Using a periodogram method the spectra of the observed wave-like oscillations, observed in the mesosphere, are examined. A physical mechanism is proposed to interpret the effects observed in terms of the mesosphere response to the total SE.     

The 11-year solar cycle,the sun’s rotation,and the middle stratosphere in winter: Part I: Response of zonal means

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of the stratospheric geopotential height and temperature fields at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations with periods related to the period of the Sun’s rotation (27.2 days) is discussed, applying methods of statistical spectral analysis to daily data for the period from 1965 to 1996. Atmospheric responses for three periodicities — 27.2 days (period of the Sun’s rotation), 25.3 days (periodicity caused by the modulation of the 27.2 days oscillation by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 days (doubled period of the solar rotation) — are studied. A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the atmospheric response to the 27.2 days solar periodicity has not been found. We explain it by a frequency shift of the response from the 27.2 days to the 25.3 days periodicity via amplitude modulation. For the 25.3 days oscillation, prominent differences between the maximum and minimum of the 11-year solar cycle have been found in the coherence between the 10.7 cm solar radio flux and the height/temperature fields: the relationships are stronger at solar maximum than at the minimum of the 11-year cycle. The same differences, but to a greater extent, are revealed for the oscillation with a period of 54.4 days. Coherence and amplitude estimates for this doubled solar rotation periodicity exhibit strong differences between extrema of the 11-year solar cycle. Phase estimates also demonstrate a clear difference between high and low solar activity: on the average, the delay of the atmospheric response after the solar signal is smaller at solar maximum than at solar minimum. Thus, we conclude that the mechanism of the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the winter middle stratosphere can include both a direct effect of the frequency corresponding to the doubled solar rotation periodicity and an indirect effect of modulation of the intensity of the interaction between the solar 27.2 days oscillation and seasonal atmospheric variations.     

The Dicke cycle: A ∼27-day solar oscillation

Measurements of solar EUV irradiance show, besides the ～11-year Schwabe cycle, a series of oscillations with a ～27-day period. They are generally explained by the passage of active regions across the solar surface resulting from the Sun's rotation, but the calculated amplitude underestimates the observed long-term variation in irradiance (Lean 1991). The variant of this model proposed here is modulation of EUV emission from the corona by rotation of the Sun's radiative zone. The response would be immediate, raising the prospect of short-term forecasting of EUV effects on space weather and on the Earth's atmospheric circulation.     

Variations in the amplitude and phase of VLF radiowaves in the ionosphere during the August 1, 2008, solar eclipse

Time variations in the amplitude and phase of signals of the Russian telecommunication station (the frequency is 25 kHz) on the Arkhangelsk—Kharkov path with a length of about 1600 km on the day of the August 1, 2008 solar eclipse (SE) and on the adjacent days are analyzed. Two types of effects are detected. An increase of the signal amplitude by approximately 32% in comparison with the background days and the 2.1 μs time shift of the signal during 2—2.5 h is referred to the first type. Changes in the spectral composition of the quasiperiodic disturbances in the ionosphere presented the second type of the effects. For spectral analysis of the quasiperiodic variations in the amplitude and phase of the radio signal, the window Fourier transform, adaptive Fourier transform, and wavelet transformation were applied simultaneously. In the period of SE and after it, oscillations with periods of 10—15 min (according to the amplitude data) and also about 10 and 18 min (according to the phase data) were intensified. Based on radio signal characteristics, the parameters of ionospheric disturbances are estimated.     

Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond

Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical–statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number R_max=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60–100 years).     

The 11-year solar cycle, the Sun's rotation, and the middle stratosphere in winter. Part II: Response of planetary waves

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation (27.2 day) is discussed in terms of statistical spectral analysis. The three oscillations studied are the 27.2 d (period of the Sun's rotation), 25.3 d (periodicity caused by modulation of the 27.2 d stratospheric response by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 d (doubled period of the solar rotation). A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle is found for the 54.4 d periodicity in planetary wavenumber 1, and for the 27.2 and 25.3 d periodicities in planetary wavenumber 2. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is expressed in the evident differences between the amplitudes of responses of planetary waves at maximum and minimum of the solar cycle: the amplitudes are much larger at high than at low solar activity. The 11-year modulation of planetary wave activity is most pronounced at mid-latitudes, mainly at 40–60°N, where the observed variability of planetary waves is large. The results obtained are in good agreement with results of the recent modeling study by Shindell et al. (Science 284 (1999) 305).     

磁暴活动与云南新一轮地震活跃期分析

对通海地磁台记录的磁暴(K指数≥5)年频次分析发现,磁暴活动的周期有强弱之分,与云南省地震活跃期和平静期对比分析看到,磁暴活动较强的周期时段与云南地震的活跃期相对应,磁暴活动较弱的周期时段与云南地震活动平静期相对应.目前,云南地震平静期已持续15年,即将进入第Ⅴ活跃期,大震发生的危险逐日增强.磁暴发生的数目和太阳活动有...     

Spectral Structure of Temperature Variations in the Midlatitude Mesopause Region

Long-term series of midnight temperature in the mesopause region have been obtained from spectral observations of hydroxyl airglow emission (OH(6-2) λ840 nm band) at the Tory station (52° N, 103° E) in 2008–2016 and Zvenigorod (56° N, 37° E) station in 2000–2016. On their basis, the Lomb-Scargle spectra of the variations in the period range from ~12 days to ~11 years have been determined. Estimates of the amplitudes of statistically significant temperature fluctuations are made. The dominant oscillations are the first and second harmonics of the annual variation, the amplitudes of which are 23–24 K and 4–7 K, respectively. The remaining variations, the number of which was 16 for the Tory and 22 for Zvenigorod stations, have small amplitudes (0.5–3 K). Oscillations with combinational frequencies, which arise from modulation of the annual variation harmonics, are observed in a structure of the variation spectra in addition to interannual oscillations (periods from ~2 to ~11 years) and harmonics of the annual variation (up to its tenth harmonic).     

Oscillations of galactic cosmic rays and solar indices before the arrival of relativistic solar protons

Using modern wavelet analysis techniques, we have made an attempt to search for oscillations of intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), sunspot numbers (SS) and magnitudes of coronal index (CI) implying that the time evolution of those oscillations may serve as a precursor of Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays (SCR). From total number of 70 GLEs registered in 1942–2006, the four large events — 23 February 1956, 14 July 2000, 28 October 2003, and 20 January 2005 — have been chosen for our study. By the results of our analysis, it was shown that a frequency of oscillations of GCR decreases as time approaches to the event day. We have also studied a behaviour of common periodicities of GCR and SCR within the time interval of individual GLE. The oscillations of GLE occurrence rate (OR) at different stages of the solar activity (SA) cycle is of special interest. We have found some common periodicities of SS and CI in the range of short (2.8, 5.2, 27 and 60 days), medium (0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.3, 1.8 and 3.2 years) and long (4.6 and 11.0 years) periods. Short and medium periodicities, in general, are rather concentrated around the maxima of solar cycles and display the complex phase relations. When comparing these results with the behaviour of OR oscillations we found that the period of 11 years is dominating (controlling); it is continuous over the entire time interval of 1942–2006, and during all this time it displays high synchronization and clear linear ratios between the phases of oscillations of η, SS and CI. It implies that SCR generation is not isolated stochastic phenomena characteristic exclusively for chromospheric and/or coronal structures. In fact, this process may have global features and involve large regions in the Sun’s atmosphere.     

On the 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation in the ionosphere

The presence and persistence of an 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation in the ionospheric electron density variations were studied. The data of lower ionosphere (radio-wave absorption at equivalent frequency near 1 MHz), middle and upper ionosphere (critical frequencies f₀E and f₀F2) for the period 1970–1990 have been used in the analysis. Also, solar and geomagnetic activity data (the sunspot numbers Rz and solar radio flux F10.7 cm, and a_N index respectively) were used to compare the time variations of the ionospheric with the solar and geomagnetic activity data. Periodogram, complex demodulation, auto- and cross-correlation analysis have been used. It was found that 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation exists and persists in the temporal variations of the ionospheric parameters under study with high level of correlation and mean period of 18–19 days. The time variation of the amplitude of the 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation in the ionosphere seems to be modulated by the long-term solar cycle variations. Such oscillations exist in some solar and geomagnetic parameters and in the planetary wave activity of the middle atmosphere. The high similarities in the amplitude modulation, long-term amplitude variation, period range between the oscillation of investigated parameters and the global activity of oscillation suggests a possible solar influence on the 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation in the ionosphere.     

Generation of magnetic field Pc5 pulsations and particle fluxes during the recovery phase of a magnetic storm on October 31, 2003

The spatial structure of intensive Pc5 pulsations of the geomagnetic field and riometer absorption during the recovery phase of a strong magnetic storm that occurred on October 31, 2003, have been considered in detail. The global structure of disturbances has been analyzed based on a global network of magnetometers and riometers supplemented by the data of magnotometers and particle detectors on geostationary satellites GOES and LANL. The local spatial structure was studied by the data of a regional network of Finland vertical riometers and the stations at the IMAGE magnetic network. Quasiperiodic variations in the magnetic field and riometer absorption are generally similar and have a close frequency composition; nevertheless, their local spatial structures are different, as a result of which the concept that riometer absorption pulsations represent a purely modulation process is doubtful. It is assumed that the observed variations are oscillations of two related systems: the magnetospheric MHD waveguide/resonator and systems including cyclotron noise and electrons. Geomagnetic Pc5 oscillations during the recovery phase of a strong magnetic storm supposedly result from the generation of the magnetospheric waveguide on magnetospheric flanks. An analysis of azimuthal propagation phase velocities indicates that these oscillations depend on intramagnetospheric parameters rather than on the solar wind velocity. The magnetospheric waveguide is in a metastable state when solar wind velocities are high, and the quasiperiodic fluctuations of the solar wind pressure stimulate the excitation of the waveguide.     

Natural climatic oscillations driven by solar activity

Many climatic parameters (ground and ocean surface temperatures, pressure, atmospheric precipitation, etc.) have temporal variations with characteristic periods from several to several tens of years or more. The unknown cause of these oscillations, together with the similarity of some of them to known solar cycles, has stimulated attempts to relate these two phenomena. The basic arguments against the existence of such a relationship are that variations in climatic parameters do not always occur synchronously with the corresponding 11- and 22-year solar cycles: the phase shift between climatic and solar variations is inconstant and changes with time from 0° to 180°. In addition, the energy of terrestrial manifestations of solar activity seems insufficient to stimulate the considered weather-climatic processes, at least within the limits of the linear approach. In the present work, it is shown that in some cases, these contradictions can be removed for variations with a period more than 11 years under the assumption that climatic variations are forced oscillations driven by an external force (for example, a force related to solar activity), that implies the existence of intrinsic (natural) climatic oscillations. The result serves as an additional argument in favor of the reality of a sun-climate connection and probably points to its probable nonlinear mechanism.     

Manifestation of the Identity of Brightness Temperatures of the Polar Coronal Hole and Low-Latitude Coronal Holes in the Centimeter Wave Range

This paper is devoted to an analysis of brightness temperatures of the polar and low-latitude coronal holes on the Sun in the cm-wave range during periods of minimum solar activity. Data from observations of the polar coronal hole received by the RATAN-600 radio telescope during the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006, and low-latitude observations of coronal holes and quiet Sun received earlier with the RATAN-600 and BPR radio telescopes in the period of minimum solar activity have been used in the paper. The obtained good agreement between the brightness temperatures of cm-wave emission of the polar coronal hole above the North Pole of the Sun and of the low-latitude coronal holes against the background of the quiet Sun reveals the identity of the temperature properties of large coronal holes, irrespective of the mode of their arrangement and location on the Sun during the periods of minimum solar activity.     

Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications

We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 and 0.25°C, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon's orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21st century. It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030–2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.     

Solar activity and cosmic ray variations as a factor of intensity of cyclonic processes at midlatitudes

Long-period variations in the cyclonic activity at middle and subpolar latitudes of the North Atlantic are studied on the basis of the data from the MSLP archive of the surface pressure (Climatic Research Unit, UK) for 1874–1995. It has been found that in the cold half year (the period of the most intense formation and development of extra-tropical cyclones) in the studied region, oscillations of the surface pressure with periods close to the main periods of solar activity (～80 and ～11 years) are observed. The obtained results make it possible to assume that solar activity and related variations in the galactic cosmic rays are one of the factors influencing the intensity of cyclonic processes at midlatitudes on the time scales of ～10 to ～100 years.     

Dusty plasma in the midlatitude ionosphere during meteor showers

The emission (or modulation) line, which manifests itself during high-speed (the speed of entry into the atmosphere is about 70 km/s) meteor showers (Perseids, Orionids, Leonids), has been detected in the fluctuation spectra of ionospheric plasma radio noise at λ = 2 m. The line frequency varies from 12 to 60 Hz depending on activity of ionospheric ionization sources and local characteristics of a meteor shower, time of day, etc. The line has a width of 2–3 Hz and can have satellites. The dusty plasma characteristics have been estimated on the assumption that ionospheric noise is modulated or emitted due to dusty plasma oscillations.     

Long-period oscillations of sunspots according to simultaneous ground-based and space observations

An analysis of oscillatory processes with periods not shorter than several tens of minutes in three isolated sunspots, which were observed during identical periods in the optical and radio bands, is illustrated. SDO/HMI magnetograms at an interval of 45 s and radio maps at a wavelength of 1.76 cm, obtained using a Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH), have been used. The time profiles, which were constructed based on the NoRH and SDO/HMI data, indicate that the oscillations of the radioemission correlate with those of the sunspot magnetic field. The wavelet spectra and cross-wavelet transform reveal common oscillation periods of 30–40, 70–100, and 150–200 min. The identical oscillation periods, found using fundamentally different methods from ground-based and space observations, confirm the solar nature of these oscillations, which can be interpreted as oscillations of a sunspot as a whole.     

Cosmic ray modulation during the solar activity growth phase of cycle 24

Recent years allowed us to study long-term variations in the cosmic ray (CR) intensity at an unusually deep solar activity (SA) minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and during the SA growth phase in cycle 24, which was the cycle when SA was the lowest for the epoch of regular ground-based CR observations since 1951. The intensity maximum, the value of which depends on the particle energy, was observed in CR variations during the period of an unusually prolonged SA minimum: the CR density during the aformentioned period (2009) is higher than this density at previous CR maxima in cycles 19–23 for low-energy particles (observed on spacecraft and in the stratosphere) and medium-energy particles (observed with neutron monitors). After 2009 CR modulation at the SA growth phase was much weaker over three years (2010–2012) than during the corresponding SA growth periods in the previous cycles. The possible causes of this anomaly in CR variations, which are related to the CR residual modulation value at a minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and to variations in SA characteristics during this period, were examined. The contribution of different solar magnetic field characteristics and indices, taking into account sporadic solar activity, has been estimated.     

Observations of long-period oscillations of the solar active regions in the visible and UV spectral intervals

The variation of intensity in spectral line wings, which was obtained from observations of the patrol telescope at the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Russian Academy of Science (KMAS) and the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) space observatory, are considered. A series of observations lasting a few hours near the solar active regions, in which both short- and longperiod oscillations were observed simultaneously during 2014–2015, are analyzed. It is found out that oscillations with a period of 3–5 min can exist at one time and in one place with oscillations with a period of about 100 min. The amplitude of long-period oscillations can be comparable with that for short-period oscillations. The conditions for excitation of the wave processes are considered. Oscillations with a period of 100 min have a weak dependence on the area of the active region.