国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究

基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。     

Responding to the coffee crisis: a pilot study of farmers' adaptations in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras

This article explores the impacts of market shocks and institutional change on smallholder livelihoods, and the challenge of adaptation in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras. The rapid decline in coffee prices since the dissolution of the International Coffee Agreement in 1989 has had widespread and profound impacts across coffee-producing regions. The data collected in the three case studies of this project confirm the severity of the impact, particularly in the Mexican and Guatemalan communities. They also illustrate the importance of the historical relationship between farmers and public institutions in defining farmers' perception of risk, their awareness of the nature of the changes they face, and thus the flexibility of their responses to present and future uncertainty. The project's findings indicate that the existence and development of local networks among farmers, service providers and information sources may be critical for facilitating adaptation, particularly in the context of economic liberalization and globalized agriculture.     

高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化适应策略——以甘南高原为例

气候变化对生态脆弱区以自然资源为生计基础的农户产生了严重影响,急需寻求有效的适应策略。以地处青藏高原东缘的甘南高原为研究区,基于1963-2013年气象数据分析甘南高原气候变化趋势,采用入户调查数据分析了气候变化对农户生计的影响及农户采取的适应策略,并利用多元线性回归模型和多项logistic回归模型分析了影响农户适应策略选择的因素。结果显示：① 近50年甘南高原气温呈增加趋势,倾向率为0.23 ℃/10 a,降水呈减少趋势,倾向率为-5.21 mm/10a,63.45%的农户认为气候变化对其生计带来了严重影响;② 甘南高原农户的适应策略多样化指数为2.65,农户的人力资本、自然资本、金融资本及其对气候变化的严重性感知、适应效能感知及自我效能感知与适应策略多样化程度呈显著正相关;③ 甘南高原65.30%的农户采取各种组合型策略应对气候变化,尤以采取扩张+调整型组合策略的农户为多,农户的人力资本是影响其适应策略选择的最显著因素,社会资本与气候变化风险感知的影响次之,金融资本及气候变化适应效能感知的影响最弱。最后,提出提高农户适应气候变化能力的对策建议。     

An Ecosystem Services Approach to Sustainable Livelihoods in the Homegardens of Kandy,Sri Lanka

ABSTRACT

The Kandyan homegardens, or forest gardens, of central Sri Lanka are diverse, smallholder agroforestry ecosystems that for 2000 years have reflected evolving environmental, economic, and social livelihood needs. An ecosystem services approach interrogated homegarden changes over the last 10 years in 31 Kandyan households. Livelihood strategies favouring homegardens were found to have broader benefits across household, national, and global scales than those favouring commercial simplification or those abandoning cultivation for alternative incomes. Livelihood benefits beyond income included resilience to economic and environmental shocks; food security; and higher stocks of biological and agricultural diversity. This revealed overlooked socio-ecological feedbacks between drivers that frustrated interventions to sustain homegarden livelihoods, including increased wild animal incursions thwarting household climate adaptation and disaster recovery; global organic and fair trade incentives reducing food security and livelihood resilience; and national seed and animal regulations counteracting homegarden sustainability programs. Despite these pressures, households maintained homegarden systems for their cultural, aesthetic and eating preferences. An ecosystem services approach can complement sustainable livelihood approaches by identifying overlooked environmental and cultural benefits; reveal livelihood feedbacks from drivers of ecosystem change; avoid unintended consequences from interventions; and capitalise on synergies between stakeholder priorities.     

“How Much Does Property Cost Up There?”: Exploring the Relationship between Women,Sustainable Farming,and Rural Gentrification in the US

Using in-depth interviews with women engaged in sustainable farming in the western United States, this project explores an unanticipated finding: migration from an urban area to rural “Prairie County” was necessary for these farmers to secure farm land and sustain their farming operations. This article interrogates the role of migration in women’s access to farmland as both an economic and cultural phenomenon. My findings highlight the necessity of migration for women’s participation in sustainable farming and suggest that women’s success in sustainable farming may align with the processes of rural gentrification, by which cultural and economic in-migrants amplify their social privilege and transform the values and economy of rural communities. This project, then, situates gender as a key structure to understanding both the classed dynamics of sustainable agriculture and rural gentrification.     

石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知及其影响因素

农户对气候变化的感知是影响其选择有效适应策略的关键因素。基于农户调查数据,构建了农户对气候变化的感知度指数,分析了石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知特征,并采用多元线性回归法分析了影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素。结果表明：（1）石羊河流域农户对气温的感知比较准确,但对降水的感知出现偏差,农户对干旱、沙尘暴的感知强度明显高于其他气象灾害;（2）农户对气候变化的严重性感知较强,大部分农户认为气候变化对其生计产生了严重影响;（3）农户感知到的气候变化适应功效及适应成本均较高,但感知到的自我效能较弱;（4）影响气候变化敏感性感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平、务农年限、气候变化信息获取渠道;影响气候变化严重性感知与适应成本感知的关键因素均为户主性别、受教育水平及与村民的交流频率;影响适应功效感知的关键因素为与村民的交流频率;影响自我效能感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平。     

The Cap and Water Trading in Australian Murray-Darling Basin for Wetlands Protection:The Possible Lessons for China

As the consequence of climate change, water that is received in Australian Murray-Darling Basin wetlands is declining and agricultural water demands are increasing. In order to keep the water use balance between environment protection including wetland protection and irrigation water use, the Australian government adopted a series of reforms in Murray-Darling Basin to address the environmental water shortage problem and encourage irrigators to use water more efficiently and plant high economic value crop. The water trading and cap are two major reforms in this process.In order to match up the environmental water demand such as wetland water use, based on the seasonal rainfall, dam level and environmental water demand, the cap system seasonally allocate how much water the irrigators can access as per water licenses. As the cap dramatically reduced the water access for irrigators, the water trading is aiming to use limited agricultural water more efficiently. The water trading scheme separate the water use right from the land property right and allow Australian farmers to trade their water licenses in the market. Water trading encouraged farmers who plant low value crops such as wheat and canola transfer their water entitles to farmers who plant high value crops such as grape. In the drought seasons, The Australian government can purchase the water licenses from irrigators to increase the environmental flows.This Australian water management system represents the most complicated and effective environmental and agricultural water use management in this world. There are possible many lessons that will help China to better manage the water use for wetland protection and farming practices.     

Whose knowledge matters in climate change adaptation? Perceived and measured rainfall trends during the last half century in south‐western Tanzania

Parts of eastern Africa have experienced substantial climatic variability and extremes during the last few decades. Here we explore the extent to which local place‐based knowledge is used and is relevant to understanding and appropriately responding to place‐based climate variability and change (specifically rainfall) in an area of considerable rainfall variability in south‐western Tanzania. Primary data were collected using focus group discussions and household questionnaire surveys, and secondary data obtained from government institutions. Various changes associated with the frequency, intensity and consistency of rainfall during the period 1960 to 2014 are explored. Findings indicate that knowledge and perceptions associated with climate operate at a local level, and that these are not necessarily applicable to neighbouring regions. Smallholder farmers in the Great Ruaha River Sub‐Basin rely on incremental adaptations of agricultural practices, in response to climatic stresses which have long‐term implications. We argue that incremental adaptations ought to be supplemented by more transformative changes of existing agricultural practices, such as using more climate‐adapted crops and livestock. Moreover, caution is required when examining human perceptions and responses to climate variability and change at the site‐specific scale, as such findings may not necessarily be applicable to broader regions in all cases.     

Economic drivers of contemporary smallholder agriculture in a transitional economy: A case study of Hu Village from southwest China

Based on an in‐depth case study of a rural community, this paper documents the contemporary state of Chinese smallholder agriculture and the changes that it has been experiencing in the context of dramatic socio‐economic transition through the lens of three main economic drivers: livelihood diversification, market conditions and government interventions. Results reveal that the change in Chinese smallholder agriculture has been complex and multidimensional. All three factors exert profound influence and shape the current state of Chinese agriculture. Massive rural‐urban migration has resulted in labour shortages, which in turn have led to a reduction in agricultural diversity and land use intensity and a shift from traditional labour‐intensive technologies to modern capital‐intensive technologies. However, because of well‐developed agricultural markets, input use levels are similar across farmer categories (such as income diversification), helping to maintain productivity. Furthermore, reduced profits from farming due to increasing input prices and decreasing output prices have exerted pressure on smallholders to increasingly turn to nonfarm activities and have also triggered a thriving informal land transfer market, which was previously non‐existent. Policy implications include the need to strengthen local economies, improve market conditions, invest in rural infrastructures and facilitate smallholders' mobility.     

A Rising Tide in Bangladesh: livelihood adaptation to climate stress

ABSTRACT

Bangladesh is at the forefront of countries experiencing and debating climate change, despite having contributed little to global emissions, and has the greatest vulnerability to climate change due to inadequate institutional support for the dense population dispersed in low-lying terrain. A micro-level study of livelihoods in the Panpatti Union, a district of the coastal zone exposed to climate stress and an array of other social, economic and political stresses, demonstrated that adaptation strategies to a range of shocks were both reactive and proactive. The persistent nature of shocks, and the limited margins in which to respond, meant that achieving sustainable long-term livelihoods was unusually difficult. Despite cases of dynamism and flexibility, where livelihoods had been effectively diversified, rural people largely failed to reduce their exposure to vulnerability. That was especially true of extremely poor, landless and female-headed households. In such challenging circumstances external interventions were required to ensure sustainable development, but were unlikely because of the isolation of Panpatti and the number of villages and people in similar circumstances. This emphasised the need to develop a more robust livelihoods framework to support the most vulnerable communities in severe economic and environmental contexts where climate change is likely to exacerbate all existing problems.     

农户行为视角下的乡村生产空间系统运行机制及重构启示

农户行为转变是乡村生产空间系统量变或从量变到质变的重要驱动力,乡村生产空间系统的运行实质上是农户行为作用的外在表现,厘清农户行为可为诠释乡村生产空间系统的运行机制提供平台。本文在剖析农户行为转变与乡村生产空间系统运行响应的理论框架基础上,从农户行为转变和乡村生产空间系统响应入手构建指标体系,建立模糊综合评价量化模型,并以重庆市江津区恒和村作为实证,诠释乡村生产空间系统运行机制。主要研究结论为：不同农户行为对乡村生产空间系统运行的影响程度各异,大体为生产大户>合作社农户>传统农户;不同农户行为对系统运行响应结果的作用差异明显,生产大户行为主要影响乡村生产空间的利用效率,合作社农户行为对提升生产空间系统经济效益作用明显,传统农户行为对生产空间系统环境改善的贡献作用最小。并从经济、社会、空间重构视角提出发展多种形式的适度规模化经营、培育新型农业经营主体和职业农民、合理引导农户技术和资本投入等建议,以实现乡村生产空间系统协调与均衡发展。     

Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho

Seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in Africa. The manifestations of this are still to be seen. This paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. The case study of a mountainous village in southern Lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users – smallholder farmers – might make in response to the forecast. A participatory role-play exercise explores what information households presently receive and how new climate forecast information could be integrated into seasonal decision making. Results show that there are a number of low-input options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast. Adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users' needs. The case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups.     

渭河流域全新世环境演变对人类文化发展的影响

通过对渭河流域10000 多年来环境资源演变的高分辨率实验数据资料和考古文献资料的分析, 探讨了全 新世以来, 渭河流域人类文化的演进与环境演变之间的耦合关系。分析表明:在8 500～3 100 a B.P.全新世大暖期, 渭河流域水、土、生物资源条件优越, 人类逐步形成了原始定居旱作农业类型文化, 从而奠定了渭河流域农业文明 的基础; 其间4 000～3 000 a B.P., 渭河流域北部的农牧交错带, 由于气候的逐渐冷干化, 导致水、土、生物资源退化, 造成旱作农业土地利用方式由游牧业取而代之; 在3 100 a B.P, 由于季风格局的突变, 整个渭河流域进入了一个相 对干旱缺雨、成壤环境的恶化时期, 环境的恶化导致了水土资源的退化, 大大动摇了旱作农业和游牧业的经济基 础, 影响了先周和西周社会的发展。     

雨养农业区农户的气候变化适应行为及影响因素路径分析

厘清农户的气候变化适应行为类型以及农户属性、气候变化感知对适应行为的影响机制,对于制定合适的适应政策至关重要。论文将适应行为分为技术性行为、经济性行为和迁移性行为3类,并构建了以气候变化感知为中介变量的“属性-感知-适应”多变量路径分析模型,在对农户属性对适应行为的影响进行多元方差分析的基础上探讨了变量间的影响路径。结果表明：① 农户适应气候变化会优先选择技术性行为,其次是经济性行为,选择迁移性行为的农户最少;② 农户属性对适应行为的影响具有显著差异;③ 根据中介变量的中介效应,将多变量路径分析模型分解为3类：完全中介模型、部分中介模型和无中介模型。通过分析以上3种模型可以发现,农户属性对适应行为既有通过中介变量产生的间接影响,也有不通过中介变量产生的直接影响,说明适应行为的选择并不仅仅依赖于气候变化感知,农户属性对于适应行为的选择也是一个重要的直接影响因素。最后针对提高农户应对气候变化的能力提出了相关政策建议。     

Soil degradation assessment in mixed farming systems of southern Africa: use of nutrient balance studies for participatory degradation monitoring

Soil degradation assessments for mixed farming systems of the Molopo Basin (North West Province, South Africa and Southern District, Botswana) are provided from farmer–based research, designed to quantify nutrient fluxes across the farming system and to analyze the social, economic, political and environmental factors affecting nutrient management practices. This paper discusses the practical difficulties of how to use participatory farmer–led studies to assess soil degradation extent and its causes, and of then disseminating this information to farming communities and policymakers. Nutrient balance studies show that land degradation is evident on arable fields as soil nutrient depletion (the main threat to poorer manure–reliant farmers) and soil acidification (the main threat to wealthier farmers who have become dependent on inorganic fertilizer additions). Integrated nutrient management strategies involving both compound fertilizer additions and regular manure inputs can mitigate most soil degradation even on the sandy infertile Kalahari soils, but remain infrequently practised. The need to retain nutrient flows through the livestock sector from rangeland to arable land is thus vital to environmental sustainability and offers an applicable entry point for agricultural development initiatives and support. Factors identified as threatening the flow of nutrients from rangelands to arable lands include policy settings in terms of the different support programmes offered to communal farmers, village–level extension advice, household poverty levels and labour constraints.     

Agriculture as Carework: The Contradictions of Performing Femininity in a Male-Dominated Occupation

Women in the US have farmed for centuries, but have infrequently had the farmer title. Rural sociologists have explored women’s on-farm roles, as well as rural conceptualizations of gender that influence who can be a farmer. As the proportion of women claiming the farmer title increases, it is important to explore women farmers’ experiences. This article focuses on sixteen farmers in Colorado across the conventional-alternative spectrum. Through engagement with feminist and rural sociological theory, and based on analysis of semi-structured interviews, we contend that women in this study expand what it means to be a farmer by performing femininity through carework within their farming practice. This study demonstrates how some women farmers adapt a variety of predominantly feminine-coded work—such as education, customer support, and feeding work—to make agriculture a space of carework, and farming a role expanded beyond a masculine ideal.     

Farming and environmental degradation in Zambia: the human dimension

Farming and environmental degradation are inextricably linked through a complex of political, social, economic and physical forces. A connection is drawn between the initiation and maintenance of distinct farming systems (commercial, emergent and subsistence) by largely human influences, and the effect these farming systems have in turn on the environment. There are important implications for the environment through indirect effects on plant cover, cultivation methods and systems of bush fallowing. In many respects subsistence cultivation is probably the safest.A case study from Mkushi District, Central Province exemplifies the influence of external factors on environmental degradation in general, and soil erosion in particular. In the survey, traditional practices show fewer signs of soil erosion than commercial farming because of rational decisions taken by each group of farmers. The implication for conservation strategies is briefly reviewed.     

Perceptions of Environmental Change and Climate Concern Among Idaho’s Farmers

Climate change public opinion research has identified conservative political ideology as the primary predictor of skepticism about climate change’s anthropogenic causes. Most farmers in Idaho are politically conservative, but they are also a unique group for whom observing their environment is part of daily life and work. We use data from in-depth interviews with 30 Idaho farmers to examine the relationship between observations of specific environmental changes and climate concern. We find that while most farmers report noticing changes in precipitation patterns, growing season length, and winter temperatures, few farmers connect these with long-term global climate change. These findings have two important implications: 1) direct experience, even in the form of disruption to an individual’s economic security, is not enough to overcome the influence of political ideology on climate change beliefs, and 2) acknowledging climate variation is not sufficient to convince individuals that the changes are produced by human activities.     

North Island hill country farmers' management response to issues of sustainability

Abstract:  This paper explores the impediments to optimizing the economic and environmental performance of agriculture in the North Island hill country. The work draws on a range of data sources including consolidated statistical data obtained from The New Zealand Meat and Wool Board's Economic Service (NZMWB) for all North Island hill and hard country farms for the period 1976–77 to 1996–97 and interviews in June and July 1999 with 35 farm households throughout the North Island. Despite generally low levels of profitability, there is considerable evidence that New Zealand farmers have engaged in moves to sustainability to a significant extent.     

气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域蓝水绿水影响研究

以渭河流域为研究对象,探讨了1980~2009年气候变化和人类活动对蓝绿水资源的影响。结果表明：① 研究时段内,在气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下,蓝水流、绿水流和绿水储量分别下降了23.56 mm/a、39.41 mm/a和17.98 mm/a,中北部的蓝水流和绿水储量呈现增加的趋势,流域上游地区的绿水流呈现下降趋势。② 归因分析表明,蓝水流、绿水流和绿水储量在气候变化驱动下分别下降了13.17 mm/a、44.99 mm/a和22.79 mm/a;土地利用/覆盖变化则导致蓝水流和绿水流分别减少0.42 mm/a和0.37 mm/a,绿水储量增加了0.79 mm/a;而农业灌溉使蓝水流减少了9.97 mm/a,绿水流和绿水储量分别增加了5.95 mm/a和4.02 mm/a。③ 气候变化导致研究区东南部绿水系数呈现增加趋势,而泾河流域绿水系数呈现减小趋势。同时,土地利用/覆盖变化使得东南部的一些子流域绿水系数呈减小的趋势,而在加入农业灌溉情景后,平原地区灌区绿水系数呈明显的上升趋势。