A Hazard Assessment Method for Potential Earthquake-Induced Landslides – A Case Study in Huaxian County, Shaanxi Province

The hazard assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides is an important aspect of the study of earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, we assessed the hazard of potential earthquake-induced landslides in Huaxian County with a new hazard assessment method. This method is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the Newmark cumulative displacement assessment model. The model considers a comprehensive suite of information, including the seismic activities and engineering geological conditions in the study area, and simulates the uncertainty of the intensity parameters of the engineering geological rock groups using the Monte Carlo method. Unlike previous assessment studies on ground motions with a given exceedance probability level, the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides obtained by the method presented in this study allows for the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides in different parts of the study area in the future. The assessment of the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides in this study showed good agreement with the historical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides. This indicates that the assessment properly reflects the macroscopic rules for the development of earthquake-induced landslides in the study area, and can provide a reference framework for the management of the risk of earthquake-induced landslides and land planning.     

活动构造研究及其应用--谨以此文深切悼念先师陈国达院士

活动构造反映的是现代构造活动,与地震及多种地质灾害密切相关,是地震预测、减灾及城市和工程安全评价工作的重要基础,也是研究现代地球动力学的重要基础资料。断裂分段及其长度,滑动速率,同震位移,古地震及重复间隔,最近一次事件至今的离逝时间是活动构造的基本定量参数。立足于这些定量参数,可以进一步开展活动构造地震危险性和未来断裂错动量和构造变形量的评价,并进行现代构造运动学和动力学理论研究。     

2008年汶川地震同震滑移特征、最大滑移量及构造意义

2008年汶川地震（M_s8.0）形成了迄今为止空间上分布最为复杂、长度最大的逆冲型同震地表破裂带。沿约275km长的地表破裂带的同震滑移及其最大滑移量的确定,对认识和理解汶川地震地表破裂过程及其变形机制具有重要意义。我们沿地表破裂带进行了详细的滑移特征考察及其同震位移测量,发现沿映秀-北川破裂带分布南北两个滑移峰值区段,南段以深溪沟-虹口破裂段为中心,以逆冲为主伴随右旋走滑运动为特征,最大垂直位移量为6.0～6.7m,北段以北川破裂段为中心,以右旋走滑为主伴随逆冲运动为特征,最大垂直位移量为11～12m,南北两滑移峰值区段所代表的两次地表破裂事件与地震波数据反演结果一致。通过对北川段破裂带的精细地形剖面测量,以及地震前后对比,在北川县曲山镇沙坝村一组获得该破裂段的最大右旋水平位移为12～15m,最大垂直位移为11～12m,这是目前世界上一次地震产生的最大同震垂直位移,最大斜向滑移量为14～17m,为整个汶川地震地表破裂最大滑移量,是汶川地震的宏观震中。北川破裂段高角度的地震断裂、逆冲断裂面的倒转作用以及具最大滑移量的强烈变形作用是北川县城遭受到最强的地表破坏和地质灾害的主要原因。具有走滑量和逆冲量近一致（走滑水平位移/逆冲垂直位移比值为1）的斜向逆冲作用可能是山脉快速隆升的重要机制。     

Analysis of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake’s Co-seismic Stress and Displacement Change by Using the Finite Element Method

The variation of in situ stress before and after earthquakes is an issue studied by geologists. In this paper, on the basis of the fault slip dislocation model of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the changes of co-seismic displacement and the distribution functions of stress tensor around the Longmen Shan fault zone are calculated. The results show that the co-seismic maximum surface displacement is 4.9 m in the horizontal direction and 6.5 m in the vertical direction, which is almost consistent with the on-site survey and GPS observations. The co-seismic maximum horizontal stress in the hanging wall and footwall decreased sharply as the distance from the Longmen Shan fault zone increased. However, the vertical stress and minimum horizontal stress increased in the footwall and in some areas of the hanging wall. The study of the co-seismic displacement and stress was mainly focused on the long and narrow region along the Longmen Shan fault zone, which coincides with the distribution of the earthquake aftershocks. Therefore, the co-seismic stress only affects the aftershocks, and does not affect distant faults and seismic activities. The results are almost consistent with in situ stress measurements at the two sites before and after Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. Along the fault plane, the co-seismic shear stress in the dip direction is larger than that in the strike direction, which indicates that the faulting mechanism of the Longmen Shan fault zone is a dominant thrust with minor strike-slipping. The results can be used as a reference value for future studies of earthquake mechanisms.     

历史强震对渭河中游群发大型滑坡的诱发效应反演

以渭河中游地区为例,探索提出了开展历史地震对区域群发滑坡诱发效应反演研究的思路和方法。首先,基于汶川地震在渭河中游地区形成的高烈度异常和震害启示,通过区域活动构造和斜坡带断裂控滑分析,指出历史强震对区内群发大型滑坡的诱发效应不容忽视。然后,利用强震诱发滑坡的最远致灾震中距分析法,筛选出研究区周边300 km范围内需要重点考察其诱发效应的4次关键历史强震:公元前780年岐山MS7.0级地震、1654年天水南MS8.0级地震、1556年华县MS8.25级地震及1920年海原MS8.5级地震。随后,以岐山地震为例,具体阐述了基于Newmark位移模型的地震诱发滑坡位移及危险性反演评估方法;同时反演了其他3次历史强震诱发区内滑坡位移及危险性。最后,定量比较了反演历史强震诱发滑坡的位移与实际大型滑坡分布的空间匹配程度,结果显示天水南MS8.0级地震对渭河中游现存群发大型滑坡的诱发效应最强。     

Co‐seismic Faults and Geological Hazards and Incidence of Active Fault of Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake,Sichuan, China

Abstract: There are two co-seismic faults which developed when the Wenchuan earthquake happened. One occurred along the active fault zone in the central Longmen Mts. and the other in the front of Longmen Mts. The length of which is more than 270 km and about 80 km respectively. The co-seismic fault shows a reverse flexure belt with strike of N45°–60°E in the ground, which caused uplift at its northwest side and subsidence at the southeast. The fault face dips to the northwest with a dip angle ranging from 50° to 60°. The vertical offset of the co-seismic fault ranges 2.5–3.0 m along the Yingxiu-Beichuan co-seismic fault, and 1.5–1.1 m along the Doujiangyan-Hanwang fault. Movement of the co-seismic fault presents obvious segmented features along the active fault zone in central Longmen Mts. For instance, in the section from Yingxiu to Leigu town, thrust without evident slip occurred; while from Beichuan to Qingchuan, thrust and dextral strike-slip take place. Main movement along the front Longmen Mts. shows thrust without slip and segmented features. The area of earthquake intensity more than IX degree and the distribution of secondary geological hazards occurred along the hanging wall of co-seismic faults, and were consistent with the area of aftershock, and its width is less than 40km from co-seismic faults in the hanging wall. The secondary geological hazards, collapses, landslides, debris flows et al., concentrated in the hanging wall of co-seismic fault within 0–20 km from co-seismic fault.     

Seismic landslides hazard zoning based on the modified Newmark model: a case study from the Lushan earthquake,China

Seismically triggered landslides can cause great damage to the road construction in mountainous areas. The permanent displacement analysis based on Newmark sliding-block model can evaluate risk of these landslides from the perspective of deformation damage and overall failure probability of slopes. However, the sliding-block model does not consider the attenuation effect of the shear strength on the sliding surface during earthquake, causing the calculated value of Jibson method to be less than the actual value. Therefore, the Newmark model was modified by adding attenuation coefficients to the effective internal friction angle and the effective cohesion of geologic units. The landslide areal density was proposed for hazard zoning with the Wenchuan earthquake data. The results showed that the predicted values agreed well with the real distribution of the landslides triggered by the Lushan earthquake. The proposed hazard zoning method in this paper can predict the severity of seismic landslides in consideration of the environmental changes in mountainous regions after the earthquake and provide support for the site selection in highly seismic areas.

     

Surface Rupture of the 1515 Yongsheng Earthquake in Northwest Yunnan,and Its Seismogeological Implications

The 1515 M7? Yongsheng earthquake is the strongest earthquake historically in northwest Yunnan. However, its time, magnitude and the seismogenic fault have long been a topic of dispute. In order to accurately define those problems, a 1:50000 active tectonic mapping was carried out along the northern segment of the Chenghai–Binchuan fault zone. The result shows that there is an at least 25 km–long surface rupture and a series of seismic landslides distributed along the Jinguan fault and the Chenghai fault. Radiocarbon dating of the ~(14) C samples indicates that the surface rupture should be a part of the deformation zone caused by the Yongsheng earthquake in the year 1515. The distribution characteristics of this surface rupture indicate that the macroscopic epicenter of the 1515 Yongsheng earthquake may be located near Hongshiya, and the seismogenic fault of this earthquake is the Jinguan–Chenghai fault, the northern part of the Chenghai–Binchuan fault zone. Striations on the surface rupture show that the latest motion of the fault is normal faulting. The maximum co–seismic vertical displacement can be 3.8 m, according to the empirical formula for the fault displacement and moment magnitude relationship, the moment magnitude of the Yongsheng earthquake was Mw 7.3–7.4. Furthermore, combining published age data with the ~(14) C data in this paper reveals that at least four large earthquakes of similar size to the 1515 Yongsheng earthquake, have taken place across the northern segment of the Chenghai–Binchuan fault zone since 17190±50 yr. BP. The in–situ recurrence interval of Mw 7.3–7.4 characteristic earthquakes in Yongsheng along this fault zone is possibly on the order of 6 ka.     

汶川地震中锚固岩质边坡的动力响应特征

岩质边坡的地震响应是当前岩土工程界所关注的重要问题之一。以紫坪铺工程进水口边坡为研究对象,以现场监测数据为基础,从时间和空间的角度综合分析了汶川地震前、后支护荷载和边坡位移的变化特征,并讨论了坡体形态、岩体结构以及支护荷载对地震力作用的协同影响。研究结果表明：受地震力作用影响,坡体变形和支护荷载发生突变,主要受主震影响;地震引起的支护荷载变化量在100 kN以内,未超出设计荷载的5%;边坡水平向产生的永久位移在12 mm范围内,岩体变形深度受结构面分布控制;边坡中部变形最大,沿水平方向具有明显的临空面放大效应,而沿高程方向,没有明显垂直放大效应。研究成果可加深对锚固岩体动力响应机制的认识,同时为以位移控制的边坡工程抗震设计提供参考。     

祁连山北缘—河西走廊地区大地形变与地震的关系

河西走廊—祁连山北缘地区地处青藏高原北缘,受印度板块与欧亚板块中生代末—新生代早期的碰撞及持续至今的向北推挤作用的远程效应的影响,该地区是现今的地壳活动地区,其中地壳形变是最主要的表现形式。地壳形变监测显示,隆起区垂直位移速率最大可达15mm/a,沉降区最大位移速率为-15mm/a。祁连山和河西走廊的相对隆升变化与该区地震具有密切的关系,河西走廊相对下降、祁连山相对隆升的后期是地震多发时期,河西走廊相对隆升、祁连山相对下降的后期是地震少发时期,这与该区处于挤压体制下的区域构造背景密切相关。GPS水平位移监测显示,河西走廊—祁连山北缘地区全区都一致向东位移,且位移速率非常大,大者大于10mm/a;位移速率具有南部大于北部、东部大于西部的特点,水平位移速率变化与现代活动断裂具有非常密切的关系,并以主要断裂构造为区带的边界;水平位移速率矢量与2002年玉门地震的震源机制解所显示的沿地震破裂面发生的滑动方向非常一致。     

Earthquake imprints on a lacustrine deltaic system: The Kürk Delta along the East Anatolian Fault (Turkey)

Deltas contain sedimentary records that are not only indicative of water‐level changes, but also particularly sensitive to earthquake shaking typically resulting in soft‐sediment‐deformation structures. The Kürk lacustrine delta lies at the south‐western extremity of Lake Hazar in eastern Turkey and is adjacent to the seismogenic East Anatolian Fault, which has generated earthquakes of magnitude 7. This study re‐evaluates water‐level changes and earthquake shaking that have affected the Kürk Delta, combining geophysical data (seismic‐reflection profiles and side‐scan sonar), remote sensing images, historical data, onland outcrops and offshore coring. The history of water‐level changes provides a temporal framework for the depositional record. In addition to the common soft‐sediment deformation documented previously, onland outcrops reveal a record of deformation (fracturing, tilt and clastic dykes) linked to large earthquake‐induced liquefactions and lateral spreading. The recurrent liquefaction structures can be used to obtain a palaeoseismological record. Five event horizons were identified that could be linked to historical earthquakes occurring in the last 1000 years along the East Anatolian Fault. Sedimentary cores sampling the most recent subaqueous sedimentation revealed the occurrence of another type of earthquake indicator. Based on radionuclide dating (¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb), two major sedimentary events were attributed to the ad 1874 to 1875 East Anatolian Fault earthquake sequence. Their sedimentological characteristics were determined by X‐ray imagery, X‐ray diffraction, loss‐on‐ignition, grain‐size distribution and geophysical measurements. The events are interpreted to be hyperpycnal deposits linked to post‐seismic sediment reworking of earthquake‐triggered landslides.     

Surface Rupture and Co-seismic Displacement Produced by the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12th, 2008, Sichuan, China: Eastwards Growth of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

An earthquake of Ms 8 struck Wenchuan County, western Sichuan, China, on May 12^th, 2008 and resulted in long surface ruptures （〉300 km）. The first-hand observations about the surface ruptures produced by the earthquake in the worst-hit areas of Yingxiu, Beichuan and Qingchuan, ascertained that the causative structure of the earthquake was in the central fault zones of the Longmenshan tectonic belt. Average co-seismic vertical displacements along the individual fault of the Yingxiu-Beiehuan rupture zone reach 2.514 m and the cumulative vertical displacements across the central and frontal Longmenshan fault belt is about 5-6 m. The surface rupture strength was reduced from north of Beichuan to Qingchuan County and shows 2-3 m dextral strike-slip component. The Wenchuan thrust-faulting earthquake is a manifestation of eastward growth of the Tibetan Plateau under the action of continuous convergence of the Indian and Eurasian continents.     

Evidence of a hidden landslide slip surface beneath a mountain hamlet

Earthquake-triggered landslides are some of the most destructive natural disasters. Although remote detection of landslides is economic and efficient, it may miss the more subtle signs of hidden landslides. The Kizawa Tunnel and facilities in its vicinity were severely damaged in the 2004 mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake. After investigation of the most prominent cracks, the damage was attributed to the slip along a hidden weakness plane. Evidence supporting this argument is summarized in this paper. However, the extent of the shear plane is not limited to the interior of the northern part of the tunnel. The dislocation observed in the two wells to the south of the Kizawa Tunnel together with other findings from previous studies indicates that Kizawa hamlet lies on the southern extension of the same shear plane. Taking account of the presence of flat sedimentary structures, the shear plane may extend in all directions. The authors also surveyed other signs of damage along the perimeter where the shear plane intersects the ground surface. The geological and geomorphological features of the hidden landslide are discussed. Reactivation of interlayer sliding is a threat to the local residents, and thus more attention should be paid to monitoring the movement of the slope to avoid devastating damages.     

四川九寨沟Ms7.0级地震滑坡应急快速评估

基于地震滑坡危险性评估的Newmark累积位移模型,利用震前获取的震区地形数据、区域地质资料,结合地震动近实时获取技术,开展了四川九寨沟M_s7.0级地震诱发滑坡的应急快速评估。地震滑坡位移分析结果表明,同震滑坡活动的中—高强度区分布在断层两侧宽约4 km的带状区域内,整体沿北西方向延伸。其中,极震区的丰雪塘、日则和干海子等城镇驻地及附近道路的滑坡强度相对较高;震前、震后影像对比表明九寨沟地震诱发的滑坡类型以浅表型碎屑流及小规模崩塌为主,且同震碎屑流多是在震前已有碎屑流的基础上进一步活动扩展而来,震后汛期泥石流隐患也不容忽视;通过典型地区滑坡位移分析结果与震前、震后影像对比,表明滑坡位移分析结果能够较好的反映同震滑坡的宏观分布特征,但在场地尺度上吻合程度欠佳,后续将通过提升岩性和地形等数据质量进行改进。研究结果可为灾情研判提供宝贵信息,对提高灾害应急救援效率具有重要意义。     

Rapid Identification and Emergency Investigation of Surface Ruptures and Geohazards Induced by the M_s 7.1 Yushu Earthquake

<正>The rapid identification based on InSAR technology was proved to be effective in our emergency investigation of surface ruptures and geohazards induced by the Yushu earthquake.The earthquake-generating fault of the Yushu earthquake is the Yushu section of the Garze-Yushu faults zone.It strikes NWW-NW,23 km long near the Yushu County seat,dominated by left-lateral strike slip,and appearing as a surface rupture zone.The macroscopic epicenter is positioned at Guo-yang-yan -song-duo of Gyegu Town(33°03'11"N,96°51'26"E),where the co-seismic horizontal offset measured is 1.75 m.Geohazards induced by the Yushu earthquake are mainly rockfalls,landslides,debris flows, and unstable slopes.They are controlled by the earthquake-generating fault and are mostly distributed along it.There are several geohazard chains having been established,such as earthquake,canal damage,soil liquefying,landslide-debris flow,earthquake,soil liquefying,roadbed deformation,etc.In order to prevent seismic hazards,generally,where there is a visible surface rupture induced by the Yushu earthquake,reconstruction should be at least beyond 20 m,on each side,from it.Sufficient attention should also be given to potential geohazards or geohazard chains induced by the earthquake.     

Spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,China

The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 is one of the most disastrous earthquakes in China. The earthquake triggered tens of thousands of landslides over a broad area, including shallow, disrupted landslides, rock falls, deep-seated landslides, and rock avalanches, some of which buried large sections of some towns and dammed the rivers. The purpose of this study is to investigate correlations between the occurrence of landslides with geologic and geomorphologic conditions, and seismic parameters. Over 56,000 earthquake-triggered landslides, with a total area of 811 km², are interpreted using aerial photographs and remote sensing images taken following the earthquake. The spatial distribution of these landslides is analyzed statistically using both landslide-point density (LPD), defined as the number of landslides per square kilometer, and landslide-area density (LAD), the percentage of the area affected by landslides, to determine how the occurrence of landslides correlates with distance from the epicenter, distance from the major surface rupture, seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration (PGA), slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, and lithology. It is found that both LAD and LPD have strong positive correlations with slope steepness, distance from the major surface rupture and seismic intensity, and that Pre-Sinian schist, and Cambrian sandstone and siltstone intercalated with slate have the most concentrated landslide activities, followed by the Permian limestone intercalated with shale, and Devonian limestone. Statistical analyses also indicate that the major surface rupture has influence on the spatial distribution of landslides, because LAD and LPD are relatively higher on the hanging wall than on the footwall. However, the correlation between the occurrence of landslides with distance from the epicenter of the earthquake is complicated, rather than a relatively simple negative correlation as found from other reported cases of earthquakes. This is possibly due to complicated rupture processes of the earthquake.     

2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震发震构造浅析

2017年8月8日21时19分,四川阿坝州九寨沟县发生7.0级地震,震中位于巴颜喀拉块体东边界虎牙断裂和东昆仑断裂带东段塔藏断裂交汇区域,地震构造背景较为复杂。地震导致了房屋和道路破坏、滑坡崩塌。根据高分辨率卫星影像解译、阶地坎变形的测量和测年数据得到：塔藏断裂东段晚第四纪以来以左旋走滑为主,兼逆分量,水平滑动速率为2.7~4.1 mm/yr,垂直滑动速率为0.56~0.6 mm/yr。结合此次地震的主余震分布、主震震源机制解等综合结果,初步建立了三维发震构造模型,分析认为此次地震属于走滑型地震,主破裂倾角57°~77°,发震断层可能是塔藏断裂的一条分支,是青藏高原块体向东推挤的一次地震事件。基于历史地震、活动断裂和形变观测方面的研究,巴颜喀拉块体具备显著的强震构造背景,对于该块体边界带周缘的强震活动和变形需要继续关注。     

秦岭北麓古滑坡分布特征与地震活动关系研究

地震滑坡是严重的次生地质灾害,也是改变地球表层地貌形态的重要力量,对地震诱发滑坡的规模、数量、类型等研究是地震危险性评价的重要手段,也是认识地震地质灾害的主要方法和途径。位于西安市以南的秦岭山脉北麓中段发育有一条长约50 km的古滑坡群,且基本与山前秦岭北缘断裂带平行展布,普遍认为该古滑坡群可能是由于秦岭北缘断裂的强震活动所诱发,但对于诱发地震的震级大小和影响范围尚没有细致研究。本文通过利用资源3号卫星立体影像制作的高分辨率数值高程模型(DEM)和高分辨率多光谱遥感影像对秦岭北麓古滑坡区域进行了详细的解译工作,并结合对部分古滑坡体进行了野外调查,制作了详细秦岭北麓古滑坡分布图。结果表明:解译出了43处古滑坡,主要集中分布在70 km×10 km的范围内,总滑坡面积是16.57 km2。通过利用地震震级与滑坡面积频度分布的关系分析了诱发秦岭北麓古滑坡群的地震规模,得到了诱发秦岭北麓古滑坡群的地震震级应在7.6~8.1之间。并结合区域地震构造环境以及与现代地震诱发滑坡事件的对比,认为秦岭北麓具有发生7.5级以上地震的潜在能力。该研究对认识现今秦岭北麓古滑坡的成因提供了定量化的数据支持,也对理解秦岭北缘断裂的地震危险性具有重要的现实意义。     

龙门山晚新生代均衡反弹隆升的定量研究

龙门山位于青藏高原东缘与四川盆地的交接部位,是青藏高原周边山脉中地形梯度变化最大的山脉,其隆升过程和机制一直是国际地学界关注的焦点。晚新生代经过大量的滑坡、泥石流等快速剥蚀作用,龙门山的高程却不断升高。讨论了龙门山构造隆升的3种地球动力学机制,即下地壳通道流机制、地壳挤压缩短变形机制、地壳均衡反弹机制。晚新生代龙门山的隆升与剥蚀引起的均衡反弹作用相关,剥蚀作用使得地壳岩石逐步被移去,剥蚀区重力损失,岩石圈或地壳卸载作用导致山脉顶峰的隆升。结合数字高程模型数据研究表明,巨大地震的长期同震构造变形以及滑坡、泥石流等引起的快速剥蚀所导致的地壳均衡反弹,可能是龙门山晚新生代构造隆升的地球动力学新机制。龙门山地区现今高程受构造作用与剥蚀引起的均衡反弹作用的共同影响,其中剥蚀引起的均衡反弹作用对龙门山隆升的影响贡献率约占30%。