Magnetic field variations in the umbra of single sunspots during their passage across the solar disk

Temporal variations of the maximum (B _max) and average (〈B〉) magnetic inductions, minimum (α _min) and average (〈α〉) inclination angles of the field lines to the radial direction from the center of the Sun, and areas of the sunspot umbra S in the umbra of single sunspots during their passage across the solar disk are investigated. The variation of the properties of single sunspots has been considered at different stages of their existence, i.e., during formation, the “quiet” period, and the disappearance stage. It has been found that, for the majority of the selected single sunspots, there is a positive correlation between B _max and S and between 〈B〉 and S defined at different times during the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. It is shown in this case that the nature of the dependence between the parameters α _min and B _max, α _min and S, as well as between 〈α〉 and 〈B〉, 〈α〉 and S, can vary from sunspot to sunspot, but for many sunspots the inclination angle of the field lines decreases on average with the growth of the sunspot umbra area and the field strength.     

Properties of solar activity and ionosphere for solar cycle 25

Based on the known forecast of solar cycle 25 amplitude (Rz _max ≈ 50), the first assessments of the shape and amplitude of this cycle in the index of solar activity F10.7 (the magnitude of solar radio flux at the 10.7 cm wavelength) are given. It has been found that (F10.7)_max ≈ 115, which means that it is the lowest solar cycle ever encountered in the history of regular ionospheric measurements. For this reason, many ionospheric parameters for cycle 25, including the F2-layer peak height and critical frequency (hmF2 and foF2), will be extremely low. For example, at middle latitudes, typical foF2 values will not exceed 8–10 MHz, which makes ionospheric heating ineffective in the area of upper hybrid resonance at frequencies higher than 10 MHz. The density of the atmosphere will also be extremely low, which significantly extends the lifetime of low-orbit satellites. The probability of F-spread will be increased, especially during night hours.     

A preliminary study for spatial representiveness of flux observation at ChinaFLUX sites

The results of eddy covariance observation system could represent the physical process at certain area of the surface. Thus point-to-area representativeness was of primary interest in flux observation. This research presents a preliminary study for flux observation at ChinaFLUX sites by the use of observation data and Flux Source Area Model (FSAM). Results show that the footprint expands and is further away from flux tower when atmosphere becomes more stable, the observation height increases, or the surfaces become smoother. This suggests that the area represented by the flux observation becomes larger. The distances from the reference point to the maximum point Smax and the minimum point x1 of source weight function (Dmax and Dmin, respectively) can be influenced by atmosphere stability which becomes longer when atmosphere is more stable. For more rough surfaces and lower observation point Dmax and Dmin become shorter. This research gives the footprint at level P=90% at ChinaFLUX sites at different atmosphere stability. The preliminary results of spatial representiveness at ChinaFLUX sites were given based on the dominant wind direction and footprint response to various factors. The study also provides some theoretical basis for data quality control and evaluating data uncertainty.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux evaluation over the evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest in Dinghushan,China

The Dinghushan flux observation site, as one of the four forest sites of ChinaFLUX, aims to acquire long-term measurements of CO₂ flux over a typical southern subtropical evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest ecosystem using the open path eddy covariance method. Based on two years of data from 2003 to 2004, the characteristics of temporal variation in CO₂ flux and its response to environmental factors in the forest ecosystem are analyzed. Provided two-dimensional coordinate rotation, WPL correction and quality control, poor energy-balance and underestimation of ecosystem respiration during nighttime implied that there could be a CO₂ leak during the nighttime at the site. Using daytime (PAR > 1.0 μmol^?1·m^?2·s^?1) flux data during windy conditions (u* > 0.2 m·s^?1), monthly ecosystem respiration (Reco) was derived through the Michaelis-Menten equation modeling the relationship between net ecosystem C0₂ exchange (NEE) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Exponential function was employed to describe the relationship between Reco and soil temperature at 5 cm depth (Ts05), then Reco of both daytime and nighttime was calculated respectively by the function. The major results are: (i) Derived from the Michaelis-Menten equation, the apparent quantum yield (α) was 0.0027±0.0011 mgCO₂·μmol^?1 photons, and the maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate (Amax) was 1.102±0.288 mgCO₂·m^?2·s^?1. Indistinctive seasonal variation of α or Amax was consistent with weak seasonal dynamics of leaf area index (LAf) in such a lower subtropical evergreen mixed forest, (ii) Monthly accumulated Reco was estimated as 95.3±21.1 gC·m^?2mon^?1, accounting for about 68% of the gross primary product (GPP). Monthly accumulated WEE was estimated as ?43.2±29.6 gC·m^?2·mon^?1. The forest ecosystem acted as carbon sink all year round without any seasonal carbon efflux period. Annual NEE of 2003 and 2004 was estimated as ?563.0 and ?441.2 gC·m^?2·a^?1 respectively, accounting for about 32% of GPP.     

Study on the processing method of nighttime CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> eddy covariance flux data in ChinaFLUX

At present, using Eddy Covariance (EC) method to estimate the “true value” of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystem arrests more attention. However, one issue is how to solve the uncertainty of observations (especially the nighttime CO₂ flux data) appearing in post-processing CO₂ flux data. The ratio of effective and reliable nighttime EC CO₂ flux data to all nighttime data is relatively low (commonly, less than 50%) for all the long-term and continuous observation stations in the world. Thus, the processing method of nighttime CO₂ flux data and its effect analysis on estimating CO₂ flux annual sums are very important. In this paper, the authors analyze and discuss the reasons for underestimating nighttime CO₂ flux using EC method, and introduce the general theory and method for processing nighttime CO₂ flux data. By analyzing the relationship between nighttime CO₂ flux and air fraction velocity u*, we present an alternate method, Average Values Test (AVT), to determine the thresholds of fraction velocity (u*_c) for screening the effective nighttime CO₂ flux data. Meanwhile, taking the data observed in Yucheng and Changbai Mountains stations for an example, we analyze and discuss the effects of different methods or parameters on nighttime CO₂ flux estimations. Finally, based on the data of part ChinaFLUX stations and related literatures, empirical models of nighttime respiration at different sites in ChinaFLUX are summarized.     

Altitudinal effect of soil <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-alkane <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis>D values on the eastern Tibetan Plateau and their increasing isotopic fractionation with altitude

Stable isotope paleoaltimetry has provided unprecedented insights into the topographic histories of many of the world’s highest mountain ranges. However, on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), stable isotopes from paleosols generally yield much higher paleoaltitudes than those based on fossils. It is therefore essential when attempting to interpret accurately this region’s paleoaltitudes that the empirical calibrations of local stable isotopes and the relations between them are established. Additionally, it is vital that careful estimations be made when estimate how different isotopes sourced from different areas may have been influenced by different controls. We present here 29 hydrogen isotopic values for leaf wax-derived n-alkanes (i.e., _δD_wax values, and abundance-weighted average δD values of C₂₉ and C₃₁) in surface soils, as well as the δD values of soil water (δD_sw) samples (totaling 22) from Mount Longmen (LM), on the eastern TP (altitude ~0.8–4.0 km above sea level (asl), a region climatically affected by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM). We compared our results with published data from Mount Gongga (GG). In addition, 47 river water samples, 55 spring water samples, and the daily and monthly summer precipitation records (from May to October, 2015) from two precipitation observation stations were collected along the GG transect for δD analysis. LM soil _δD_wax values showed regional differences and responded strongly to altitude, varying from?160‰ to?219‰, with an altitudinal lapse rate (ALR) of?18‰ km^?1 (R ²=0.83; p<0.0001; n=29). These _δD_wax values appeared more enriched than those from the GG transect by ~40‰. We found that both the climate and moisture sources led to the differences observed in soil _δD_wax values between the LM and GG transects. We found that, as a general rule, ε _wax/rw, ε _wax/p and ε _wax/sw values (i.e., the isotopic fractionation of _δD_wax corresponding to δD_rw, δD_p and δD_sw) increased with increasing altitude along both the LM and GG transects (up to 34‰and 50‰, respectively). Basing its research on a comparative study of _δD_wax, δD_p, δD_rw(δD_springw) and δD_sw, this paper discusses the effects of moisture recycling, glacier-fed meltwater, relative humidity (RH), evapotranspiration (ET), vegetation cover, latitude, topography and/or other factors on ε _wax/p values. Clearly, if ε _wax-p values at higher altitudes are calculated using smaller ε _wax-p values from lower altitudes, the calculated paleowaterδD_p values are going to be more depleted than the actual δD values, and any paleoaltitude would therefore be overestimated.     

Diagnostics of Turbulent Dynamo from the Flux Emergence Rate in Solar Active Regions

Line-of-sight magnetograms acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) and by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for 14 emerging ARs were used to study the derivative of the total unsigned flux–the flux emergence rate, R(t). We found that the emergence regime is not universal: each AR displays a unique emergence process. Nevertheless, two types of the emergence process can be identified. First type is a “regular” emergence with quasi-constant behavior of R(t) during a 1–3 day emergence interval with a rather low magnitude of the flux derivative, R_max = (0.57 ± 0.22) × 10²² Mx day^–1. The second type can be described as “accelerated” emergence with a long interval (>1 day) of the rapidly increasing flux derivative R(t) that result in a rather high magnitude of R_max= (0.92 ± 0.29) × 10²² Mx day^–1, which later changes to a very short (about a one third of day) interval of R(t) = const followed by a monotonous decrease of R(t). The first type events might be associated with emergence of a flux tube with a constant amount of flux that rises through the photosphere with a quasi-constant speed. Such events can be explained by the traditional largescale solar dynamo generating the toroidal flux deep in the convective zone. The second-type events can be interpreted as a signature of sub-surface turbulent dynamo action that generates additional magnetic flux (via turbulent motions) as the magnetic structure makes its way up to the solar surface.     

Photosynthetic characteristics of dominant tree species and canopy in the broadleaved Korean pine forest of Changbai Mountains

Based on the light-photosynthesis response measurement at leaf level, combined with over-and under-canopy eddy covariance measurements, research on photosynthetic characteristics of single trees and forest canopy was conducted. The relationship between light intensity and photosynthetic rates for leaves and canopy can be well fitted by a non-rectangular hyperbola model. Mongolian oak presented a high light compensation point, L _cp (28 μmol·m^?2·s^?1), a light saturation point L _sp (>1800 μmol·m^?2·s^?1), and a maximal net photosynthetic rate P _max (9.96 μmol·m^?2·s^?1), which suggest that it is a typical heliophilous plant. Mono maple presented the highest apparent quantum efficiency α (0.066) but the lowest, L _cp (16 μmol·m^?2·s^?1), L _sp (≈800 μmol·m^?2·s^?1), and P _max (4.51 μmol·m^?2·s^?1), which suggest that it is heliophilous plant. Korean pine showed the lowest α value but a higher P _max, which suggest that it is a semi-heliophilous plant. At the canopy level, the values of both α and P _max approached the upper limit of reported values in temperate forests, while L _cp was within the lower limit. Canopy photosynthetic characteristics were well consistent with those of leaves. Both showed a high ability to photosynthesize. However, environmental stresses, especially high vapor pressure deficits, could significantly reduce the photosynthetic ability of leaves and canopy.     

Parameters of the Geomagnetic Activity,Thermosphere, and Ionosphere for the Ultimately Intense Magnetic Storm

Equations of regression are derived for the intense magnetic storms of 1957?2016. They reflect the nonlinear relation between Dst_min and the effective index of geomagnetic activity Ap(τ) with a timeweighted factor τ. Based on this and on known estimations of the upper limit of the magnetic storm intensity (Dst_min =–2500 nT), the maximal possible value Ap(τ)_max ~ 1000 nT is obtained. This makes it possible to obtain initial estimates of the upper limit of variations in some parameters of the thermosphere and ionosphere that are due to geomagnetic activity. It is found, in particular, that the upper limit of an increase in the thermospheric density is seven to eight times larger than for the storm in March 1989, which was the most intense for the entire space era. The maximum possible amplitude of the negative phase of the ionospheric storm in the number density of the F₂-layer maximum at midlatitudes is nearly six times higher than for the March 1989 storm. The upper limit of the F₂-layer rise in this phase of the ionospheric storm is also considerable. Based on qualitative analysis, it is found that the F₂-layer maximum in daytime hours at midlatitudes for these limiting conditions is not pronounced and even may be unresolved in the experiment, i.e., above the F₁-layer maximum, the electron number density may smoothly decrease with height up to the upper boundary of the plasmasphere.     

A way of estimating the characteristic slip displacement

During the ruptures of an earthquake,the strain energy.△E,.will be transferred into,at least,three parts,i.e..the seismic radiation energy(E_s),fracture energy(E_g),and frictional energy(E_f),that is,△E = E_s + E_g + E_f.Friction,which is represented by a velocity- and state-dependent friction law by some researchers,controls the three parts.One of the main parameters of the law is the characteristic slip displacement.D_c.It is significant and necessary to evaluate the reliable value of D_c from observed and inverted seismic data.Since D_c controls the radiation efficiency.η_R = E_s/(E_s+ E_g),the value of η_r is a good constraint of estimating D_c.Integrating observed data and inverted results of source parameters from recorded seismograms.the values of E_s and E_g of an earthquake can be measured,thus leading to the value of η_R.The constraint used to estimate the reliable value of D_c will be described in this work.An example of estimates of D_c.based on the observed and inverted values of source parameters of the September 20,1999 M_S 7.6 Chi-Chi(Ji-Ji).Taiwan region,earthquake will be presented.     

Seismic source zoning and maximum credible earthquake prognosis of the Greater Kashmir Territory,NW Himalaya

We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m _max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M _w 7.7, M _w 8.5, and M _w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m _max of M _w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m _max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m _max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (～900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.     

Effect of water stress on ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration of a <Emphasis Type="Italic">Leymus chinensis</Emphasis> steppe in Inner Mongolia

Many studies on global climate have forecast major changes in the amounts and spatial patterns of precipitation that may significantly affect temperate grasslands in arid and semi-arid regions. As a part of ChinaFLUX, eddy covariance flux measurements were made at a semi-arid Leymus chinensis steppe in Inner Mongolia, China during 2003–2004 to quantify the response of carbon exchange to environmental changes. Results showed that gross ecosystem production (F _GEP) and ecosystem respiration (R _eco) of the steppe were significantly depressed by water stress due to lack of precipitation during the growing season. Temperature was the dominant factor affecting F _GEP and R _eco in 2003, whereas soil moisture imposed a significant influence on both R _eco and F _GEP in 2004. Under wet conditions, R _eco showed an exponentially increasing trend with temperature (Q ₁₀ = 2.0), but an apparent reduction in the value of R _eco and its temperature sensitivity were observed during the periods of water stress (Q ₁₀=1.6). Both heat and water stress can cause decrease in F _GEP. The seasonality of ecosystem carbon exchange was strongly correlated with the variation of precipitation. With less precipitation in 2003, the steppe sequestrated carbon in June and July, and went into a senescence in early August due to water stress. As compared to 2003, the severe drought during the spring of 2004 delayed the growth of the steppe until late June, and the steppe became a CO₂ sink from early July until mid-September, with ample precipitation in August. The semi-arid steppe released a total of 9.7 g C·m^?2 from May 16 to the end of September 2003, whereas the net carbon budget during the same period in 2004 was close to zero. Long-term measurements over various grasslands are needed to quantify carbon balance in temperate grasslands.     

A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Propagation of internal gravity waves to the altitudes of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">D</Emphasis> and dynamo regions in the seismic region (Kamchatka): Preliminary results

A spectral analysis of simultaneous diurnal variations in the E _z component of the quasi-static electric field in the near-Earth atmosphere, VLF radio noise, and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field, observed at Kamchatka in September 1999, has been performed. These geophysical parameters are indirectly used to study wave processes in the near-Earth atmosphere and in the ionospheric D and dynamo regions within the band of periods of internal gravity waves (T = 0.5?3.5 h). The correlation method in the frequency region is used to analyze the interrelation between the wave processes in these atmospheric regions. The power cross-spectra of various pairs of geophysical parameters have been studied depending on meteorological, seismic, and geomagnetic activities. It is shown that the oscillations in the power spectra in the T ～ 1–1.5 h band of periods are caused by the sources of internal gravity waves in the near-Earth atmosphere and by the remote sources above the dynamo region of the ionosphere within the T ～ 1.5–3 h band of periods.     

Effects of temporally correlated infiltration on water flow in an unsaturated–saturated system

Effects of temporally correlated infiltration on water flow in an unsaturated–saturated system were investigated. Both white noise and exponentially correlated infiltration processes were considered. The moment equations of the pressure head (ψ) were solved numerically to obtain the variance and autocorrelation functions of ψ at 14 observation points. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to verify the numerical results and to estimate the power spectrum of ψ (S _ψψ ). It was found that as the water flows through the system, the variance of the ψ (\( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \)) were damped by the system: the deeper in the system, the smaller the \( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \), and the larger the correlation timescale of the infiltration process (λ _I ), the larger the \( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \). The unsaturated–saturated system gradually filters out the short-term fluctuations of ψ and the damping effect is most significant in the upper part of the system. The fluctuations of ψ is non-stationary at early time and becomes stationary as time progresses: the larger the value of λ _I , the longer the non-stationary period. The correlation timescale of the ψ (λ _ψ ) increases with depth and approaches a constant value at depth: the larger the value of λ _I , the larger the value of λ _ψ . The results of the estimated S _ψψ is consistent with those of the variance and autocorrelation function.     

Scaling relations of moment magnitude,local magnitude,and duration magnitude for earthquakes originated in northeast India

In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude (M _W), local magnitude (M _L), and the duration magnitude (M _D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M _W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M _W-M _L and M _W-M _D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M _W values can be considered consistent with M _L and M _D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region.     

Standard prediction of solar cycles

To make a long-term prediction of the solar cycle in a standard way (GOST 25645.302-83), it is necessary to know the instant of the activity minimum onset, the determination of which is difficult during the decline stage of the previous cycle. The dependence of the long-term prediction error on the time of shift (t) relative to the solar activity minimum instant (i.e., the situation when a certain time before the minimum onset, rather than the time of this minimum, is the initial point of calculations) has been studied. It has been indicated that one should not know the exact time of the activity minimum onset in order to make prediction according to GOST, and such a prediction can be performed with an approximately identical error if the lead time is t ～ 1 year and more relative to the activity minimum onset. An analysis of the dependence of prognostic W _max values on t for cycles 18–23 indicated that prognostic W _max values are overestimated at small (to ～ 1 year) uncertainties in the time of activity minimum onset. It has been obtained that W _max = 96 ± 13 for cycle 24 on the assumption that this cycle began in April 2007.     

Experimental study on the shear behavior of the interface between cushion materials and the concrete raft

Cushion is a layer of granular materials between the raft and the ground. The shear behavior of the interface between the cushion and the raft may influence the seismic performance of the superstructure. In order to quantify such influences, horizontal shear tests on the interfaces between different cushion materials and concrete raft under monotonic and cyclic loading were carried out. The vertical pressure P_v, material type and cushion thickness h_c were taken as variables. Conclusions include: 1) under monotonic loading, P_v is the most significant factor; the shear resistance P_(hmax) increases as P_v increases, but the normalized factor of resistance μ_n has an opposite tendency; 2) for the materials used in this study, μ_n varies from 0.40 to 0.70, the interface friction angle δ_s varies from 20° to 35°, while u_(max) varies from 3 mm to 15 mm; 3) under cyclic loading, the interface behavior can be abstracted as a "three-segment" back-bone curve, the main parameters include μ_n, the displacement u_1 and stiffness K_1 of the elastic stage, the displacement u_2 and stiffness K_2 of the plastic stage; 4) by observation and statistical analysis, the significance of different factors, together with values of K_1, K_2 and μ_n have been obtained.     

Comparison of Bayesian estimates of peak ground acceleration (<Emphasis Type="Italic">A</Emphasis>max) with PSHA in Iran

Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (A_max) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of A_max and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of A_max on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the A_max is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of A_max for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.     

Estimation of monthly evaporative loss using relevance vector machine,extreme learning machine and multivariate adaptive regression spline models

The forecasting of evaporative loss (E) is vital for water resource management and understanding of hydrological process for farming practices, ecosystem management and hydrologic engineering. This study has developed three machine learning algorithms, namely the relevance vector machine (RVM), extreme learning machine (ELM) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) for the prediction of E using five predictor variables, incident solar radiation (S), maximum temperature (T _max), minimum temperature (T _min), atmospheric vapor pressure (VP) and precipitation (P). The RVM model is based on the Bayesian formulation of a linear model with appropriate prior that results in sparse representations. The ELM model is computationally efficient algorithm based on Single Layer Feedforward Neural Network with hidden neurons that randomly choose input weights and the MARS model is built on flexible regression algorithm that generally divides solution space into intervals of predictor variables and fits splines (basis functions) to each interval. By utilizing random sampling process, the predictor data were partitioned into the training phase (70 % of data) and testing phase (remainder 30 %). The equations for the prediction of monthly E were formulated. The RVM model was devised using the radial basis function, while the ELM model comprised of 5 inputs and 10 hidden neurons and used the radial basis activation function, and the MARS model utilized 15 basis functions. The decomposition of variance among the predictor dataset of the MARS model yielded the largest magnitude of the Generalized Cross Validation statistic (≈0.03) when the T _max was used as an input, followed by the relatively lower value (≈0.028, 0.019) for inputs defined by the S and VP. This confirmed that the prediction of E utilized the largest contributions of the predictive features from the T _max, verified emphatically by sensitivity analysis test. The model performance statistics yielded correlation coefficients of 0.979 (RVM), 0.977 (ELM) and 0.974 (MARS), Root-Mean-Square-Errors of 9.306, 9.714 and 10.457 and Mean-Absolute-Error of 0.034, 0.035 and 0.038. Despite the small differences in the overall prediction skill, the RVM model appeared to be more accurate in prediction of E. It is therefore advocated that the RVM model can be employed as a promising machine learning tool for the prediction of evaporative loss.