Analysis of laminated structure in ozone vertical profiles in central Europe

Using statistical techniques, we study the relationship between the long-term changes in the laminar structure of the ozone vertical profile at two central-European stations - Hohenpeissenberg and Lindenberg - and other quantities potentially affecting the state of the lower stratosphere, and total-ozone content. We consider only positive laminae greater than 30 nbar. Laminae contribute non-negligibly to total ozone, and this contribution varies strongly with season. The maximum laminae-occurrence frequency in late winter/early spring is five-times higher than the minimum in early autumn. The main result of the paper is the discovery of a strong negative trend in the frequency of laminae occurrence, about -15% per decade, and even a slightly stronger negative trend in ozone content in laminae. Strong negative trends in laminae occurrence imply negative changes in total ozone as well. No pronounced effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle on laminae was found, whereas the 100-hPa temperature had a clear effect, and there was an indication of substantial effects of volcanic eruptions and El Niño southern oscillation events. Long-term changes in individual time series of meteorological parameters measured over Hohenpeissenberg do not indicate their significant role in the observed trend in laminae occurrence. On the other hand, there is some increase in the occurrence of very zonal circulation patterns, as well as slight decrease in very meridional circulation patterns. Together with other indications this allows us to say that dynamical effects are expected to be a principal contributor. Thus changes in laminae occurrence will probably be able to serve as an indicator/tracer of long-term changes in lower-stratospheric dynamics.     

Influence of stratospheric ozone changes on long-term trends in the meso- and lower thermosphere

As predicted by model calculations, long-term changes in the stratospheric ozone content should influence trends in the meso- and thermosphere also. These predictions have been tested by means of ionospheric reflection height data in the low-frequency (LF) range and critical frequency data series of the ionospheric E layer, foE, observed at different stations around the world. It was shown that an essential part of the derived trends in the mesosphere and in the lower thermosphere is correlated with long-term changes of the atmospheric ozone content. During the sub-interval with the strongest ozone decrease (1979–1995) the detected ionospheric trends are most pronounced. Additionally was also demonstrated that the longitudinally dependent ozone trends are related to similar variations in the foE trends.     

Global pattern of trends in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere: Recent progress

The global pattern of long-term trends and changes in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere has been presented by Laštovička et al. [2006a. Global change in the upper atmosphere. Science 314 (5803), 1253–1254]. Trends in the mesospheric temperature, electron concentration in the lower ionosphere, electron concentration and height of its maximum in the E-region, electron concentration in the F1-region maximum, thermospheric neutral density and F-region ion temperature qualitatively agree with consequences of the enhanced greenhouse effect and form a consistent pattern of global change in the upper atmosphere. Three groups of parameters were identified as not-fitting this global pattern, the F2-region ionosphere, mesospheric water vapour, and the mesosphere/upper thermosphere dynamics. The paper reports progress in development of the global pattern of trends with emphasis to these three open problems. There are several other factors contributing to long-term trends, namely the stratospheric ozone depletion, mesospheric water vapour concentration changes, long-term changes of geomagnetic activity and of the Earth's magnetic field.     

Long-term changes (1980–2003) in total ozone time series over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes

Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980–2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980–2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.     

Structural changes in trend parameters of the MLT winds based on wind measurements at Obninsk (55°N, 37°E) and Collm (52°N, 15°E)

Recent analysis of the long-term behavior of different geophysical data has demonstrated that trend parameters can change during a period of observation. Sophisticated general methods for an objective analysis of structural changes in linear trends have been developed during the last 10 years. Such methods are applied for an analysis of changes in trend parameters of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere wind observed over Obninsk (55°N, 37°E) from 1964 to 2007 and Collm (52°N, 15°E) from 1979 to 2008, respectively. We found that trend models with breakpoints are generally preferred against straight lines. At Obninsk, there are break-years in trends of the winter prevailing winds close to 1977, when a climatic regime shift was observed. The break-years in trends of the semidiurnal tides for both stations are close to years of possible changes in stratospheric ozone. Correlations of the Obninsk and Collm winds with atmospheric indices are also considered.     

A method to anchor floating chronologies in annually laminated speleothems with U–Th dates

Stalagmites occasionally present laminae which, when demonstrated to be annual, may be used to construct an annually resolved chronology. Such annually laminated records provide an opportunity to improve the precision of age models based on other dating techniques. Since annually laminated stalagmites sometimes present a complex stratigraphy with lateral variations in lamina thickness associated with changing macroscopic growth shapes, a procedure for lamina counting is developed here, which complements other methods of speleothem lamina counting. Regardless of the complexity of laminae, when the exact date of a laminated section is unknown, lamina counting provides a floating chronology. This paper describes a method to anchor floating chronologies in speleothems using the least-squares fit of the lamina counting to the radiometric dates (typically U–Th). The estimation of uncertainties in the age model is also considered, which accounts for uncertainties in the lamina counting as well as the fit of the lamina count to the radiometric dates. The uncertainty of this fit does not depend on the analytical uncertainty of the radiometric dates or the precision in the lamina counting, and simply considers all the available dates and their distance to the proposed age model. As an example, the method was applied to a stalagmite from Northern Spain and its accuracy was compared with the annually resolved and cross-dated Greenland chronology during the 8.2 ka event. Although this method has been described for stalagmites, it could be applied to other records in which cross-dating techniques would not be suitable.     

Characteristics of annual laminae gray level variations in a stalagmite from Shihua Cave, Beijing and its climatic significance (II)

The annual laminae gray level variations in the stalagmite TS9501 of Shihua Cave, Beijing are studied in detail. The environmental factors influencing the laminae gray level are also analyzed. The following conditions may be necessary to the study on the lamina gray level. A) The seasonal differences of climate in the studied area are strong. B) The cave has a rapid and simple hydrological connection with the surface, such that the gray level variation is great; therefore, climatic changes can be more clearly recorded in a stalagmite. C) No water from other sources due to lateral flow adds to the seepage over the cave. D) There are more organic impurities than inorganic ones, whose content changes distinctly with time in the sample. By comparison with the modern instrumental climate records, it was found that the gray level of laminae is mainly related to the air temperature, especially the summer mean temperature. Therefore, the gray level can be used as a proxy of the air temperature. The variation of the lamina gray level also represents the oscillation of Indian summer monsoon as identified in the modern climate records. The variability of the temperature in Beijing area over the last 1 ka is reconstructed. The results show that there are several cold periods corresponding to historical records. An important phenomenon is noticed that the climatic pattern before about 1400AD is different from that after about 1400AD. In Beijing area, before about 1400AD, low amplitude and high frequency temperature oscillations dominated the signal. The climate pattern is warm-dry and cold-wet. After about 1400AD, both the temperature and rainfall varied synchronously, temperature oscillated strongly and the Little Ice Age occurred. The climate pattern is cold-dry and warm-wet. This transition of the climate pattern is also observed in other worldwide paleoclimatic records, demonstrating that there was a global climate event at about 1400AD.     

Late Holocene annual growth in three Alpine stalagmites records the influence of solar activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter climate

Annual growth rates and the ratio of dark to light-colored calcite within single annual laminae in three contemporaneously deposited Holocene speleothems from Grotta di Ernesto, an Alpine cave in northern Italy, respond to changes in surface temperature rather than precipitation. Based on monitoring of present-day calcite growth, and correlation with instrumental data for surface climatic conditions, we interpret a higher ratio of dark to light-colored calcite and the simultaneous thinning of annual laminae as indicative of colder-than-present winters. Such dark and thin laminae occur in those parts of the three stalagmites deposited from AD 1650 to 1713 and from AD 1798 to 1840, as reconstructed through lamina counting. These periods correspond to the well-known Maunder and Dalton Minima of solar activity. An 11-yr cyclicity in growth rate, coupled with reduced calcite deposition during the historic minima of solar activity, is indicative of a solar influence on lamina thickness. Spectral analysis of the lamina thickness data also suggests that the North Atlantic Oscillation variability influenced winter temperatures. Based on the present-day controls on cave calcite formation, we infer that high-frequency changes in solar activity modulated the seasonal duration of soil CO₂ production.     

On the relationship between vertical ozone distribution and the synoptic situation

Summary The purpose of the paper is to provide a statistical view of the role of circulation patterns and the origin of low stratospheric air in connection with vertical ozone distribution below the ozone maximum, and also with the total ozone amount. Ozonesonde data from the aerological observatory of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) Prague-Libu (50·0N, 14·7E) for January to April during the period 1979–1990 have been analyzed using an objective method to find the distribution of laminae in the vertical profile of the ozone partial pressure related to the different types of circulation patterns. The synoptic classification following Grosswetterlagen (GWL) was used, the parameters of the ozone profile such as number, magnitude, thickness and height of laminae, or the appearance of the large laminae were obtained for the individual types of GWL and used in other procedures. The total ozone data from the ozone observatory of CHMI in Hradec Králové (50·2N, 15·8E) was also included together with the height of the tropopause and parameters of ozone profiles in the cluster analysis to investigate connections between the ozone distribution and circulation patterns (types of synoptic situation). The ozone low-level index (LLI), defined as the ratio of the integral amount of ozone in D.U. from the surface up to 50 hPa and total ozone were introduced to provide better information about ozone profile response to circulation patterns and thus provide a better grouping of similar types of GWL. The presented results imply the strong confirmation of the huge ozone laminae below the ozone maximum as the source of total ozone positive extremes under appropriate synoptic situations with the near location of the polar vortex edge, which could be used in common forecasts of atmospheric ozone as well as in remote sensing applications.     

Midlatitude mesopause region winds and waves and comparison with stratospheric variability

We present time series of January–May mean mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) mean winds and planetary wave (PW) proxies over Europe together with stratospheric stationary planetary waves (SPW) at 50°N and time series of European ozone laminae occurrence. The MLT winds are connected with stratospheric PW and laminae at time scales of several years to decades. There is a tendency for increased wave activity after 1990, together with more ozone laminae and stronger MLT zonal winds. However, possible coupling processes are not straightforward. While mean MLT winds before the 1990s show similar interannual variations than stratospheric PW at 100 hPa, later a tendency towards a connection of the MLT with the middle stratosphere SPW is registered. There is also a tendency for a change in the correlation between lower and middle stratosphere SPW, indicating that coupling processes involving the European middle atmosphere from the lower stratosphere to the mesopause region have changed.     

大气臭氧层,紫外辐射与人类健康

本文首先评述了近数十年来大气Ｏ３层的演变,其中包括全球与中国地区及南极臭氧洞的情况,之后,评述了由此引发的达地面太阳紫外辐射强度的变化,以及对人类健康与环境的影响。     

The global distribution of long-term total ozone variations during the period 1957–1975

Total ozone observations in the international network have been used as a basis for the analysis of the mean monthly ozone distribution over the globe for the period 1957–75. It has been found that during the period 1961–70 the total ozone amount increased in the Northern Hemisphere by about 12 percent and that this increase seems to be significant at all latitudes. Although the data were sparse for the Southern Hemisphere, there did not appear to be any significant ozone changes during the 10 year period. Relatively large geographic variations were found in the ozone trends and it is suggested that these variations are related to large scale changes in the atmospheric circular pattern.     

Ground-based lidar and atmospheric studies

This review considers the requirements and possibilities for the development of a ground-based network for long-term observations of the atmosphere. This network would be specifically designed to provide early detection of changes in the composition and structure of the stratosphere. The species and parameters identified as being important and amenable to ground-based measurements are summarized, as are the currently available techniques capable of making the required measurements. Ultraviolet laser remote sensing is identified as the most promising technique for the measurement of ozone and temperature profiles which are considered to have the highest priority for network measurements. The laser techniques, and the research at JPL Table Mountain Observatory, to implement ozone and temperature measurements are discussed in greater detail.     

Fourteen-year series of vertical ozone distribution over Arosa,Switzerland, from Umkehr measurements

Summary Observations of the vertical ozone distribution over Arosa, Switzerland, have been carried out routinely since 1956 (with one two-year gap). Long-term trends of ozone concentration at different levels indicated by this series are discussed in the light of the results obtained from five years of parallel measurements with two Dobson spectrophotometers. Further substantiation of the suggested correlation between ozone concentration in the upper stratosphere and solar activity (with a two- to three-year lag of ozone against sun-spot numbers) is needed because no full agreement was obtained from the two instruments with respect to the secular variation at those top levels.     

Evidence for vertical ozone redistribution since 1967

Long-term measurements of the ozone concentration in the vicinity of the city of Berlin have been performed with ground based Dobson spectrophotometers and balloon borne systems. The respective experiments cover the past 24 years. All data have been reevaluated and corrected towards uniform calibration standards, leading to the longest European data set of total column density, altitude-dependent ozone partial pressures and the corresponding temperatures. Smoothing algorithms unravel significant long-term trends.The analysis shows an increase of ozone concentration within the middle stratosphere (below 31 km height) as well as in the troposphere over the past 24 years. On the contrary, ongoing ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere has been found.The large scale vertical redistribution of atmospheric ozone in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere seems to be in agreement with model calculations and trend predictions that have their roots in changes of the chemical composition and the ozone photochemistry due to anthropogenically induced trace gas concentrations.Deutscher Wetterdienst, Meteorologisches Observatorium Potsdam.Deutscher Wetterdienst, Meteorologisches Observatorium Lindenberg.     

Seasonal acceleration of the rate of total ozone decreases over Central Europe: impact of tropopause height changes

Total ozone data from some European stations have been analyzed to detect the ozone decrease in different seasons from 1979 to 1995. The differences between the winter–spring (December–March) and summer (May–August) total ozone means have decreased distinctly during the last three decades, by 10 Dobson Units per decade, showing that the winter–spring decrease is significantly stronger than the summer one. Applying a multiple regression model to the monthly means of tropopause height, positive trends in the summer and winter–spring seasons have been found, especially since 1979. This corresponds to the accelerating ozone decrease then. The possibility of using tropopause height variations as an indicator of dynamical variability in the total ozone trend model is discussed. The total ozone response to the changes of tropopause height seems to be independent of timescale over which the tropopause-total ozone relationship has been examined (month-to-month, interannual). The total ozone trends, as well as the accelerated rate of ozone decrease since 1979 in the winter–spring and summer seasons, respectively, are reduced by about 0.5–1% per decade after inclusion of the tropopause height effect on the ozone model.     

北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素分析

本文基于1979—2014年臭氧总量的卫星遥感数据,利用多元线性回归模型对臭氧总量数据序列进行模拟计算,考察了北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素的作用.结果表明,北太平洋地区大气臭氧总量长期变化呈现减少趋势,但是减少速率随季节和纬度带表现出差异性,在各纬度带臭氧峰值季节臭氧下降趋势最为显著.在0°—15°N地区臭氧高值出现在夏秋季节并在8月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率约为0.2DU/a;15°—30°N亚热带地区臭氧高值出现在春夏季并在5月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降速率约为0.22DU/a;而在30°—45°N中纬度地区臭氧高值出现在冬春季并在2月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率0.75DU/a.在臭氧分布年平均态基础上,影响臭氧总量分布变化的因素主要有臭氧损耗物质(EESC)、太阳辐射周期(Solar)、准两年振荡(QBO)和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)等.其中,EESC导致臭氧损耗效应随着纬度升高而增大,在从低到高的三个纬度带损耗最大值分别为11DU、16DU和66DU;Solar增强导致臭氧增加,在三个纬度带的增加效应最大值分别为16DU、17DU和19DU;QBO@10hPa和QBO@30hPa对臭氧影响幅度基本在±10DU内波动,只有QBO@10hPa对30°—45°N区域的影响作用达到14DU,值得注意的是QBO影响作用随着纬度变化存在相位差异,在0°—15°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相同相位,而在15°—30°N和30°—45°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相反相位;ENSO对各个纬度带臭氧影响幅度也在±10DU内,ENSO影响作用在不同纬度带也存在相位差异,臭氧总量变化在0°—15°N、15°—30°N区域与ENSO相位相反,在30°—45°N区域与ENSO相位一致.     

Trends in total ozone and the effect of the equatorial zonal wind QBO

Trends in total column ozone have been analyzed in terms of the equatorial zonal wind. We used zonal monthly mean total ozone from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and monthly mean zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere at 30 hPa to define the phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Total column ozone trends have been assessed during the period 1979–2004, for both Hemispheres, and for each month, under three conditions considering, all the ozone dataset, ozone values during easterly phase and ozone values during westerly phase of the QBO. When the whole dataset is considered, negative trends are observed. From low to midlatitudes a zonal pattern is noticed with increasing negative values toward higher latitudes. When the data is filtered according to the QBO phase, statistically significant positive trends appear in the westerly case during January to May at low latitudes .The trend pattern in the case of the easterly phase presents more negative values.     

我国上空平流层中微量气体的垂直分布和变化趋势

利用1992～2005年卤素掩星试验（HALOE）的观测资料分析了中国上空平流层的几种微量气体（NO, NO2, HF, HCl, CH4, H2O 和O3）混合比的垂直分布和变化趋势,以期为研究平流层的辐射和化学过程提供一些有用的数据. 文中除给出我国上空平流层各高度上平均的各种微量气体的含量外,还给出青藏高原上空这些微量气体的含量. 分析结果表明,平流层各种微量气体混合比的垂直分布有其不同的特征,在对流层上层到平流层底部各种微量气体的混合比分布和季节变化与平流层相比有明显的差异;分析结果还表明,这些微量气体的季节变化、准两年周期振荡和长期变化趋势都很明显,并且在平流层的不同高度上它们的变化趋势是不相同的. 在平流层中层,NO, NO2, HCl 和H2O 混合比在1998年以前都是增加而后则是明显下降的,但O3相反,在1998年以前明显减少,1998年后其减少的趋势不明显. 这表明,近年来平流层中层这些微量气体的减少使得它们对臭氧的破坏有所缓解. 但在平流层下层,臭氧的耗损仍然很明显.