热带东风气流中低压形成的非线性过程

从有水平辐合辐散的赤道β平面浅水方程出发,采用变量替换和小参数展开法,推导出了热带纬向气流作用下的非线性近似方程,给出了非线性方程孤立波解和一阶近似方程u1、v1、1的形式解.由此讨论了热带东风气流中的低压形成.结果表明:(1)在热带东风气流或热带东风弱切变气流中,可以得到低压形势结构;东风气流弱切变不影响低压纬向宽度,而对低压强度和低压中心位置有一定的影响.(2)当热带东风气流减弱时,低压中心位置偏北,低压强度增强,低压纬向宽度变大;在东风气流中,低压中心位于15～20°N之间,低压中心位置跟实际热带东风气流中低压形成位置比较一致.     

南海热带辐合带的气流分型

利用2001～2005年Micaps每日08:00的850hPa天气图,及相关海区指标站实时资料,对出现在南海的热带辐合带进行分析,结果表明:南海热带辐合带按其组成气流和所出现的地理位置大致可分为4种类型,即偏东型、偏西型、东西相连型和南压型,这4种类型与其组成气流和出现季节有密切关系,对南海不同海区天气的影响有较大差异。     

东风和西风切变环境下西北太平洋热带气旋快速增强特征的对比

利用1980-2009年美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)整编的热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)最佳路径资料,定义西北太平洋TC 24 h强度变化达到总体样本96%累积概率的变化值,即35 kn作为TC快速增强的阈值。根据NCEP/NCAR资料将200~850 hPa之间 TC所处的环境纬向风切变(wind shear,WS)划分为东风切变(east wind shear,EWS)和西风切变(west wind shear,WWS)。对比了EWS和WWS环境下快速增强热带气旋(rapid intensification tropical cyclones,RITC)的统计和大尺度环境合成场特征,结果表明,近70%的TC快速增强发生在东风切变环境下。TC快速增强概率最高的月份在9月,初始强度区间为[65,75) kn。大的EWS下,850 hPa有来自南海地区的西南气流为RITC输送充沛水汽,500 hPa、200 hPa高压势力强但脊线位置偏北,RITC流出层温度低于-79 ℃,垂直结构上底层的辐合与高层的辐散也相对较强。大WWS下,850 hPa的水汽主要为来自西北太平洋的东南气流,500 hPa副热带高压断裂为几个分散的中心,200 hPa辐散相对较弱,RITC合成位置位于副热带高压西北侧的西风气流,流出层温度约-76 ℃。     

1982—2009年冬夏两季热带季节内振荡的趋势特征

采用1982—2009年美国国家海洋与大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)逐日向外长波辐射(outgoing longwave radiation,OLR)资料,利用EOF方法,分析了20～70 d北半球夏季(6—9月)季节内振荡(boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation,BSISO)与冬季(12月—次年2月)季节内振荡(也称Madden-Julian Oscillation,MJO)不同的强度趋势。结果表明:BSISO指数有明显加强的趋势,而MJO指数的趋势则不明显。进一步利用频率—波数分析方法将季节内振荡(intraseasonal oscillation,ISO)分成西传和东传两部分。结果表明:东传的BSISO在其活动中心——热带印度洋地区有显著加强的趋势,而东传的MJO在其活动中心的趋势则不明显,仅在其活动中心西南部即热带印度洋西南部有减弱的趋势。为探究其原因,文章进一步分析了海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)和纬向风垂直切变的趋势变化。结果表明:1982—2009年,西太平洋和印度洋SST无论冬夏均持续增暖,SST并不能解释冬夏两季ISO不同的趋势特征;而夏季热带印度洋地区对流层中低层东风垂直切变减弱,冬季海洋性大陆地区东风垂直切变增强。由此认为:热带印度洋东风垂直切变减弱有可能有利于东传的BSISO加强;而海洋性大陆地区东风垂直切变加强有可能削弱东传的MJO,但这种减弱效应被冬季海洋性大陆地区增强的上升运动产生的加强效应抵消,所以MJO的变化趋势并不显著。     

西北太平洋双热带气旋相互作用统计分类及其特征分析

采用中国气象局与上海台风研究所提供的1949-2007年西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径资料,统计分析了西北太平洋上的双(多)热带气旋相互作用现象.针对统计出的双热带气旋样本,根据相互作用两气旋的单独移动路径和它们相互作用的路径特征,归纳得到7种相互作用类型( A～G),并用聚类分析方法拟合得到每种类型的平均回归路径.分析讨...     

基本气流的垂直切变对热带行星尺度大气波动的影响

通过一个赤道β平面上的绝热无摩擦的两层模式,讨论了线性垂直切变的纬向基本气流对热带行星尺度大气波动的影响。在长波近似下,当有纬向基本气流垂直切变时,可得到与东传Kelvin波和西传Rossby波对应的不稳定模态。对不稳定的Kelvin波模态,其相速受垂直切变的影响不大,而对不稳定的Rossby波模态,切变越大,西传速度越小。基本气流的垂直切变主要影响热带Rossby波。     

斜压涡旋中的通风气流与热带气旋移动的关系

应用准地转斜压模式数值模拟了热带气旋的移动。将热带气旋的流场分解为轴对称分量和非对称分量,研究非对称流场中的通风气流矢量与热带气旋移动矢量的关系。数值试验结果表明:(1)在热带气旋的非对称流场中,不但有大尺度β涡旋,而且还有小尺度涡旋。(2)小尺度涡旋与大尺度β涡旋之间的相互作用导致热带气旋移向的摆动和移速的振荡。(3)应用Fiorino和Elsberry的方法计算的通风气流矢量与热带气旋移动矢量有很大偏差。(4)应用改进的方法计算的通风气流矢量与热带气旋移动矢量相关密切。     

夏季热带东风急流的结构、变化及其与亚非季风降水的关系

使用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究热带东风急流(TEJ）的长期变化及其与亚非降水分布的关系。用150～100 hPa纬向风代表TEJ, 并定义了一个指数(TEJI)来度量急流的变率。分析发现, TEJ主要覆盖了热带地区从日界线向西延伸到非洲西海岸的大片地区, 其核心位于150～100 hPa印度半岛南部10°N～15°N, 中心风速超过30 m/s。急流中线大致位于70°E, 以东是急流的入口区, 以西是出口区。在入口区急流轴线有两个分支, 南支位于0°～10°N, 呈西北东南走向, 北支位于10°N～20°N, 呈西南东北走向。TEJ存在40～60天和20～30天的季节内振荡周期, 以及2～4年和7～10年的周期变化。出现暖事件时TEJ减弱, 出现冷事件时TEJ加强。TEJ存在明显的年代际变化, 1978年是其气候突变点, 突变前为强TEJ时期, 突变后TEJ显著减弱。亚洲和中非的主要降水带、对流区、高层辐散及大尺度上升运动都出现在东风急流入口区的右侧及出口区的左侧, 但出口区西非的情况略显复杂。在急流的入口区和出口区存在两个近于相反的垂直环流, 它们与降水分布密切有关。在急流的入口区, 强TEJ年其垂直环流更强, 其右侧的降水也更大; 但在急流的出口区, 强、弱TEJ年的垂直环流没有明显差异, 其左侧的降水也没有明显差异。     

Impact of the Western Pacific Tropical Easterly Jet on Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

Although it is well known that the tropical easterly jet(TEJ)has a significant impact on summer weather and climate over India and Africa,whether the TEJ exerts an important impact on tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)remains unknown.In this study,we examined the impact of the TEJ on the interannual variability of TC genesis frequency over the WNP in the TC season(June-September)during 1980-2020.The results show a significant positive correlation between TC genesis frequency over the WNP and the jet intensity in the entrance region of the TEJ over the tropical western Pacific(in brief WP_TEJ),with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.66.The intensified WP_TEJ results in strong ageostrophic northerly winds in the entrance region and thus upper-level divergence to the north of the jet axis over the main TC genesis region in the WNP.This would lead to an increase in upward motion in the troposphere with enhanced low-level convergence,which are the most important factors to the increases in low-level vorticity,mid-level humidity and low-level eddy kinetic energy,and the decreases in sea level pressure and vertical wind shear in the region.All these changes are favorable for TC genesis over the WNP and vice versa.Further analyses indicate that the interannual variability of the WP_TEJ intensity is likely to be linked to the local diabatic heating over the Indian Ocean-western Pacific and the central Pacific El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation.     

一次东风波暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规气象资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,结合自动站加密资料对2009年9月29日20:00至10月1日20:00发生在浙江东部沿海的一次东风波暴雨过程进行了分析.结果发现:0916号台风"凯萨娜"外围环流为此次东风波的形成提供了扰动作用,副热带高压的加强使得低层形成了明显的东南急流,为暴雨或强降水的发生提供了...     

夏季逐月东亚高空西风急流经向偏移与热带中、东太平洋海温的关联

Previous studies have shown that meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) dominates interannual variability of the EAJS in the summer months. This study investigates the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with meridional displacement of the monthly EAJS during the summer. The meridional displacement of the EAJS in June is significantly associated with the tropical central Pacific SST anomaly in the winter of previous years, while displacements in July and August are related to tropical eastern Pacific SST anomalies in the late spring and concurrent summer. The EAJS tends to shift southward in the following June (July and August) corresponding to a warm SST anomaly in the central (eastern) Pacific in the winter (late spring-summer). The westerly anomaly south of the Asian jet stream is a result of tropical central Pacific warm SST anomaly-related warming in the tropical troposphere, which is proposed as a possible reason for southward displacement of the EAJS in June. The late spring-summer warm SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific, however, may be linked to southward displacement of the EAJS in July and August through a meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia.     

Intraseasonal variability of the Tropical Easterly Jet

Summary By analyzing 12-year (1979–1990) 200 hPa wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, we demonstrate that the intraseasonal time scale (30–60 days) variability of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) reported in individual case studies occurs during most years. In the entrance region (east of ∼70° E), axis of the TEJ at 200 hPa is found along the near equatorial latitudes during monsoon onset/monsoon revivals and propagates northward as the monsoon advances over India. This axis is found along ∼5° N and ∼15° N during active monsoon and break monsoon conditions respectively. Examination of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis wind data also confirms the northward propagation of the TEJ on intraseasonal time scales. During the intraseasonal northward propagations, axis of the TEJ is found about 10°–15° latitudes south of the well-known intraseasonally northward propagating monsoon convective belts. Because of this 10°–15° displacement, axis of the TEJ arrives over a location about two weeks after the arrival of the monsoon convection. Systematic shifting of the locations by convection, low level monsoon flow and TEJ in a collective way during different phases of the monsoon suggests that they all may be related.     

东亚西风急流变化与热带对流加热关系的研究

应用OLR资料和高空格点资料,研究了东亚地区西风急流及其附近的纬向西风与热带地区对流加热场的关系。结果表明西风急流中心的季节变化是和热带加热场的季节变化紧密的联系在一起的。东亚地区的纬向西风强度的年变化与热带加热场的同期及前期状况也密切相关,这种关系可以作为预测我国江淮地区夏季梅雨的一个强信号。     

Seasonal Variation of the Meridional Wind in the Temperate Jet Stream and Its Relationship to the Asian Monsoon

The features of the temperate jet stream including its location, intensity, structure, seasonal evolution and the relationship with the Asian monsoon are examined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It is indicated that the temperate jet stream is prominent and active at 300 hPa in winter over the region from 45°-60°N and west of 120°E. The temperate jet stream is represented by a ridge area of high wind speed and dense stream lines in the monthly or seasonal mean wind field, but it .corresponds to an area frequented by a large number of jet cores in the daily wind field and exhibits a distinct boundary that separates itself with the subtropical jet. A comparison of the meridional wind component of the temperate jet stream with that of the subtropical jet shows that the northerly wind in the temperate jet stream is stronger than the southerly component of the subtropical jet, which plays an important role in the temperate jet stream formation and seasonal evolution, and thus the intensity change of the meridional wind component can be used to represent the temperate jet stream＇s seasonal variation. Analysis of the temperature gradient in the upper troposphere indicates that the temperate jet stream is accompanied by a maximum zonal temperature gradient and a large meridional temperature gradient, leading to a unique jet stream structure and particular seasonal evolution features, which are different from the subtropical jet. The zonal temperature gradient related to the land-sea thermal contrast along the East China coastal lines is responsible for the seasonal evolution of the temperate jet. In addition, there exists a coordinated synchronous change between the movement of the temperate jet and that of the subtropical jet. The seasonal evolution of the meridional wind intensity is closely related to the seasonal shift of the atmospheric circulation in East Asia, the onset of the Asian summer monsoon and the start of Meiyu in the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valleys, and it correlates well with summer and wint     

东亚副热带急流的空间结构及其与中国冬季气温的关系

本文利用1950～2012 年NCEP/NCAR 逐月再分析风场资料和中国542 个台站逐日观测资料研究东亚副热带急流(EAJ)的空间结构及其与中国冬季气温的关系。结果表明,东亚副热带急流在空间呈不规则管状结构,冬季急流体积最大,垂直厚度范围自500 hPa 至100 hPa;夏季急流体积最小,仅存在于200 hPa 附近。急流管在秋、冬、春季略呈西南—东北走向,在夏季呈西—东走向。不同高度上的最大风速轴线在南北方向的移动不尽一致,春、秋季低层风速轴比高层偏北。东亚急流管不同区域下方的垂直运动及其年变化存在差异。冬季东亚副热带急流强度与同期中国气温关系密切,特别是高原上空的急流越强时,中国大部分地区冬季气温偏低。     

一次大暴雨过程低空急流脉动与强降水关系分析

应用香港天文台提供的时空分辨率都非常高的风廓线雷达资料对深圳2005年8月19—20日大暴雨过程强降雨时段进行了详细分析。结果表明,风廓线雷达资料每小时风场揭示每次强降水的发生都对应一次西南急流的迅速加强和向下扩展。低空急流指数I可以说明低空急流的脉动向地面扩展程度与中小尺度降水的密切关系,对强降水的出现及雨强大小有一定的预示性。