1521号台风“杜鹃”生成阶段中尺度对流系统和降水演变特征

在热带气旋的生成过程中,从热带扰动向热带低压增强的过程研究较少,而这一过程必定伴随着中尺度对流系统（MCS）的生成、合并和发展。本文利用FNL分析资料和高分辨率模式对1521号台风“杜鹃”生成前3天进行数值模拟,着重探讨了“杜鹃”生成过程中MCS的发展演变特征。在“杜鹃”生成过程中,对流层上部槽（TUTT）位置偏东,“杜鹃”主要从季风涡旋（MG）的东南侧边缘向西北方向移动,因此,减弱的大尺度垂直风切和MG东南侧的低层辐合都为“杜鹃”的生成提供了有利的动力条件。在“杜鹃”生成前期阶段,新生成更多的MCS有利于在热带扰动阶段“杜鹃”的增强;“杜鹃”生成的中后期阶段,对流爆发,MCS发生合并使得MCS个数减少,MCS结构变得更加紧凑,面积最大的MCS逐渐向热带扰动中心区域收缩,“杜鹃”生成速度加快。对比MCS中的层云降水和对流云降水的特征发现,MCS中层云降水覆盖面积更大;对流云降水的降雨率比层云的降雨率更大,同时变化幅度更明显。层云降水百分比的增加与“杜鹃”增强的过程关系密切,但对流云降水的降雨率增加有利于MCS增强,层云和对流云的共同作用促进了“杜鹃”生成。     

Estimates of intensity and formation frequency of ice pile-up on the northwestern coast of the Caspian Sea from the results of model computations

The technique and results of computations of statistical parameters of ice pile-up formation on the western coast of the northern Caspian Sea are presented. The dynamic model of ice pile-up formation on the shores is described. The main ice, meteorological, and morphologic factors influencing the shore pile-up formation are analyzed. The test computation enabling to estimate the model adequacy is described. The estimation principle of the probability of the formation of the ice pile-up of certain size is given and the distribution functions of geometrical parameters of the pile-ups on the western coast of the northern Caspian Sea are obtained. The limits of the proposed model are specially stipulated.     

The investigations of aerosol particle formation in urban background area of Helsinki

In this study the possible conditions for new aerosol particle formation in a background area of Helsinki have been analysed. The measurements of aerosol particle size distribution, main gaseous pollutant compounds, UV spectra and meteorological parameters were performed during April–May 1993. The main interest was concentrated on the investigations of photochemical OH radical formation, the oxidation of gas phase SO₂ to H₂SO₄ and the formation of H₂SO₄---H₂O aerosol particles. The measurements were analysed using a model for OH radical formation and aerosol dynamics. The analysis of aerosol size distributions was carried out using positive matrix factorization. The main conclusion is that based on our model analysis no evidence of new particle formation in the vicinity of the measurement station was found. However, the high concentrations of aerosol particles in the ultrafine size range indicate that some other particle formation pathways are to be considered.     

基于双幂次滑模的多机器人编队控制

本文研究了基于领航跟随法的多机器人系统编队控制问题.首先,基于队形约束,给出跟随者期望的轨迹,将编队问题转化为单个跟随者的轨迹跟踪问题.在此基础上,基于双幂次滑模趋近律,设计了跟随者的线速度和角速度控制器,保证了跟踪误差能够快速收敛到零,从而保证了编队队形的稳定.最后,通过仿真验证了所提方法的有效性.     

Effect of nonlinear dynamic process on formation and breakdown of blocking

With the L-P approximate method (variation of parameter method), a barotropic channel model in β-plane is used to study the effect of nonlinear interaction between two waves with different scales on the formation of blocking. The approximate analytical solution, which can describe the process of the blocking formation, maintenance and breakdown, has been obtained by using the method of approximate expansion. The importance of nonlinear interaction between two waves with different scales is stressed in the solution. The result suggests that the nonlinear interaction is the main dynamic process of the blocking formation. Some required conditions of blocking formation are also discussed.     

Resolution dependence of tropical cyclone formation in CMIP3 and finer resolution models

Detection of tropical lows is performed in a suite of climate model simulations using objectively-determined detection thresholds that are resolution-dependent. It is found that there is some relationship between model resolution and tropical cyclone formation rate even after the resolution-dependent tropical cyclone detection threshold is applied. The relationship is investigated between model-simulated tropical cyclone formation and a climate-based tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI). It is found that coarser-resolution models simulate the GPI better than they simulate formation of tropical cyclones directly. As a result, there appears to be little relationship from model to model between model GPI and the directly-simulated cyclone formation rate. Statistical analysis of the results shows that the main advantage of increasing model resolution is to give a considerably better pattern of cyclone formation. Finer resolution models also simulate a slightly better pattern of GPI, and for these models there is some relationship between the pattern of GPI simulated by each model and that model’s pattern of simulated tropical cyclone formation.     

A numerical experiment of mesolow on the eastern side of the taihang mountains

A numerical experiment on the formation and decay process of a mesolow on the plain east to the Taihang Mountains has been conducted. The dynamical effect of the special topography of the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains on the formation of the mesolow is very important. Namely, the difference of the heating be-tween the Taihang Mountains and the North China plain plays an important role in the formation and decay of the mesolow.     

Re-examination of tropical cyclone formation in monsoon troughs over the western North Pacific

The monsoon trough(MT) is one of the large-scale patterns favorable for tropical cyclone(TC) formation over the western North Pacific(WNP). This study re-examines TC formation by treating the MT as a large-scale background for TC activity during May–October. Over an 11-year(2000–10) period, 8.3 TC formation events on average per year are identified to occur within MTs, accounting for 43.1% of the total TC formation events in the WNP basin. This percentage is much lower than those reported in previous studies. Further analysis indicates that TC formation events in monsoon gyres were included at least in some previous studies. The MT includes a monsoon confluence zone where westerlies meet easterlies and a monsoon shear line where the trade easterlies lie north of the monsoon westerlies. In this study, the large-scale flow pattern associated with TC formation in the MT is composited based on the reference point in the confluence zone where both the zonal and meridional wind components are zero with positive vorticity. While previous studies have found that many TCs form in the confluence zone, the composite analysis indicates that nearly all of the TCs formed in the shear region, since the shear region is associated with stronger low-level relative vorticity than the confluence zone. The prevailing easterly vertical shear of zonal wind and barotropic instability may also be conducive to TC formation in the shear region, through the development of synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in the MT that are necessary for TC formation.     

The synoptic setting of thunderstorms in western Europe

This paper discusses the synoptic factors contributing to the formation of thunderstorms in western Europe and in particular gives reasons for the existence of the preferred areas for thunderstorms. These areas are all found in the vicinity of the Alps. The synoptic features playing a role in promoting thunderstorm formation in particular areas in western Europe are identified. The principle synoptic features or processes promoting the formation of intense thunderstorms are a high level of potential instability, convergence lines associated with frontogenesis and cyclogenesis and upper level potential vorticity advection. Additional features playing a role in thunderstorm formation are land and seabreeze circulations and (thermally) forced upward motion at slopes.     

Theoretical Modeling of the Size-Dependent Influence of Surface Tension on the Absorptive Partitioning of Semi-Volatile Organic Compounds

The influence of surface tension on the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is investigated in this study using a size-dependent absorptive partitioning model. A theoretical framework is offered to estimate the surface tension of multi-component aerosols consisting of organic compounds and water. The size-dependent influence of surface tension on the absorptive partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds is examined via numerical simulations of systems of representative pre-existing aerosol (PA) components and semi-volatile organic compounds that have been observed to constitute SOA. Results indicate that if nonpolar organic species constitute a significant fraction of the PA, the Kelvin effect on SOA formation may be negligible. However, if PA is dominated by polar organic compounds, the Kelvin effect on SOA formation is significant when the PA initial diameter is smaller than approximately 200 nm. If the PA is an aqueous aerosol, the Kelvin effect on SOA formation is most important. A simplified computational scheme for estimation of the Kelvin effect is developed in this study and feasibly could be coupled into three-dimensional air quality models that simulate SOA formation. Available observations also suggest that future modeling and analysis of SOA formation may need to consider the Kelvin effect. Concrete testing of the purely theoretical model presented here requires carefully designed observations that examine the phase distribution of secondary organic compounds between the gas phase and aerosol particles small enough to be affected by surface tension.     

江苏省冰粒过程的天气特征和预报着眼点探讨

利用常规气象观测资料、微波辐射计资料和FNL再分析资料对2016年3月8日和2015年2月27日江苏省两次冰粒过程进行了对比分析,研究结果表明:(1)两次过程均是在后倾槽系统和东路冷空气的影响下产生的,环流形势为冰粒的产生提供了有利的大尺度条件;(2)在临近冰粒形成前,融化层和冻结层形成,而干层的形成时间要明显早于融化层和冻结层;(3)偏北的冷气流与偏南的暖气流随时间和空间分布不同导致温度平流分布不同,进而导致融化层和冻结层产生;(4)干层的形成主要是由于湿度平流随高度的分布差异造成的,水滴在干层中的蒸发吸热作用促进冻结层产生和维持。     

安徽沿长江东部春季一次大范围雾天气过程诊断分析

利用地面气象观测资料、高空探测资料、NCEP再分析资料、芜湖市边界层风廓线雷达资料和高速公路气象观测站资料,分析了2012年3月6日安徽省沿长江东部大范围雾天气过程形成的环流背景及雾生消的物理条件。结果表明：安徽沿江东部地区此次春季大范围雾的性质为辐射雾,雾发生时雾区上空为西到西南风为主,无明显冷空气影响,地面为高压控制的均压场,有利于雾的生成和维持。由雾生消的物理条件可知,近地面水汽条件较好和长波辐射降温造成的水汽凝结是此次大范围雾形成的重要原因。地面辐射降温形成的近地面逆温层有利于雾的维持,且随着近地面逆温层的抬升,雾层变厚并发展。低空的逆温层则形成稳定的层结,阻止水汽向上传输。近地面风速大小合适,风垂直切变小,低层有湍流,中层无明显上升运动,构成雾形成的有利动力条件;而湿层变厚又阻止了水汽向高层交换,有利于雾的生成和维持。日出后,太阳辐射增强,有利于雾发生和维持的地面辐射降温、逆温和动力条件逐渐消失,雾逐渐消散。     

实验室模拟研究大气二次有机气溶胶的形成

二次有机气溶胶（SOA）是大气中重要的气溶胶组分,主要由挥发性有机物（VOCs）经化学转化形成,对天气、气候、大气环境和人体健康有重要影响,但至今其确切的化学成分和形成机制还十分不清楚。研究SOA的方法主要采用实验室单个物种或多物种的化学过程的模拟研究,野外实际大气的SOA化学成分、源汇和多尺度分析的观测研究,以及大气中SOA形成的数值模拟的回报和预报研究。实验室研究是对SOA形成过程中获取基础数据和推究SOA生成机制的最主要手段。在过去的几十年中,特别是近五年,SOA的研究取得了较大的进展,其中包括SOA前体物、SOA形成机制及影响因子的进一步理解。本文就这些方面展开了概要性的综述,重点强调了我国研究人员所做的研究工作。在采用实验室烟雾箱系统模拟研究SOA方面,首先简述了烟雾系统的发展以及表征,讨论了跟烟雾箱箱体相关的壁效应问题,重点综述了萜烯类、芳香烃类、小分子类等化学物种转化形成SOA的研究进展。在采用流动管和其他反应器类模拟研究SOA方面,重点讨论了挥发性有机物在颗粒物表面或在液相中所形成的SOA的主要化学成分及其可能的作用。     

济南一次雾过程的数值模拟试验和成因分析

基于中尺度天气研究与预报(Weather Research and Forecast,WRF)模式并选取T639模式数据作为初始条件和边界条件,对2015年11月13日至14日发生在济南的一次大雾天气进行数值模拟试验。利用常规观测资料对模拟效果进行检验分析,从不同方面分析这次雾的成因。结果表明:1稳定的大气层结、微弱的风速、较小的温度露点差为雾的形成提供了有利的气象条件;2WRF模式能够较好地模拟出雾形成和发展过程并且可以较为准确地模拟出能见度的强度;3近地层中性层结和较为充足的水汽对雾的形成和发展有重要作用;低云的存在推迟了白天雾的消散;4在雾形成和发展阶段,925hPa以下为辐合上升运动,之上为辐散下沉运动,这使得水汽集中在近地层,有利于雾的生成;5近地层的冷平流会增大相对湿度,是雾形成的有利条件;非绝热因子对这次雾的形成发展并没有起到关键作用。     

北京地区一次持续性大雾的宏观物理特征

通过分析北京地区2004年11月30日和12月2日出现的两场大雾生成的天气背景,大雾生成阶段和消散阶段的温度、湿度、气压和风场特征,探讨北京地区大雾的宏观物理特征。所用数据资料是通过系留气球探测所得,分析了气象要素的廓线和时间剖面图特征,从而得到了北京地区有雾生成时的天气背景特征;辐射雾与平流雾的能见度变化区别,雾生成时、持续阶段及雾消散前温度场、湿度场的变化特征;逆温层在辐射雾和平流雾中的形成原因和作用都不同;比湿值增大是判断有暖湿平流带来水汽的重要指标;气压变化平稳、缓慢,使强对流没有发生,逆温层不能被冲破,雾能长时间维持。     

中国不同区域气候条件对冬季雾日形成的差异性分析

雾是一种严重的天气灾害,极大地影响了交通和日常生活,并可能带来巨大的经济损失。利用1958～2007年678个中国地面观测站点的雾日数资料,采用相关系数分析、合成分析等方法分析了冬季雾日数的时空特征,发现冬季多雾地区和年际变率较强地区集中在西南、华北和华南等地区。根据冬季雾日分布特征,将中国划分为3个较为独立的雾区,从水汽条件、大气稳定度及大气环流背景等方面讨论了区域气候条件差异对局地雾形成机制的影响,发现不同区域冬季雾日产生的气候条件有着明显的差异性。结论如下:西南区冬季雾的形成受水汽输送影响较小,受大气稳定度影响较大,且巴尔喀什湖东侧高压脊加强,冷空气南下,西南较易发生雾;华北冬季雾日的形成受水汽输送影响较大,伴随长江中下游水汽异常推进偏北,水汽异常大值中心偏北,且西伯利亚高压、东亚大槽以及东北低压减弱,冷空气活动较弱,华北较易发生雾。华南冬季雾日的形成受水汽输送影响较大,伴随长江中下游水汽异常推进偏弱,水汽异常大值中心偏南,且东亚大槽减弱,华南较易发生雾。     

地形及冷热源扰动不同分布对南沙海域西南大风形成过程影响的数值试验

利用一个p-σ混合坐标五层原始方程模式，进行了地形及冷热源扰动的不同分布对南沙海域西南大风过程形成作用的数值试验。结果表明，亚洲南部特殊的地形及海陆分布是形成南沙海域西南大风过程的基本条件，但它造成的最大风速只能达8m/s，比观测值要小。试验中发现，在有地形作用的前提下，澳大利亚冷空气的向北爆发及菲律宾附近热源扰动的作用均可各自在南沙海域形成12m/s以上的大风过程，而孟加拉湾附近的热源扰动则对南沙海域西南大风过程的形成无明显作用。     

鲁西南霾天气个例分析

2007年6月11～13日鲁西南连续3天出现罕见的霾天气过程,为了弄清楚这次霾天气过程形成的天气学原因.利用常规气象资料、探空站资料及自动气象站资料和空气污染资料对这次过程进行综合分析.结果表明,霾的形成是多种气象因素共同作用的结果,大陆暖高压东移人海,其底部的偏东气流将海上的低温高湿空气向鲁西南输送,是霾形成的有利环流条件;中低层风速较小,且风向随高度逆转,是霾形成的有利风场;大气层结稳定,且低层存在逆温层是霾形成的重要条件;高污染浓度是形成霾的物质基础.     

Evolution of the Mid-tropospheric Vortex during the Formation of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)

As a follow-up of a previously published article on the contribution of tropical waves, this study explores the evolution of the mid-tropospheric mesoscale cyclonic vortex(MV) during the formation of Typhoon Megi(2010) with a successful cloud-resolving simulation. It is found that the formation and intensification of the MV were related to the deep convection and subsequent stratiform precipitation, while the weakening of the MV was related to the shallow convection. Both the upward transport of vorticity related to the deep convection and the horizontal convergence associated with the stratiform precipitation contributed to the formation and intensification of the MV. Even though the latter was dominant, the former could not be ignored, especially in the early stage of the MV. The MV played dual roles in the formation of Megi. On the one hand, the formation and intensification of MV were primarily associated with the stratiform precipitation, which induced the low-level divergence inhibiting the spin-up of the near-surface cyclonic circulation. On the other hand, the coupled low-level cold core under the MV benefited the accumulation of the convective available potential energy(CAPE),which was favorable for the convective activity. A sensitivity experiment with the evaporative cooling turned off indicated that the development of the MV retarded the genesis process of Megi.