On the interpretation of slow ground deformation precursory to the 1976 Friuli earthquake

During three years preceding the 1976 Friuli earthquake, a continuous southward ground tilt was recorded by a tiltmeter placed near Tolmezzo, 15 km north-west of the epicentre of the impending earthquake. The cumulative ground tilt amounted to as much as 3 minutes of arc. Since the tiltmeter was placed in the proximity of an active fault, such a tilt can be explained if the fault slipped aseismically on its shallower section during the same three year period. Aseismic slip on the fault might have been caused by the same mechanism which concentrated stress in the region and eventually produced the 1976 earthquake.     

前驱波检测在地震预测中的应用

基于一种新颖的液体悬浮式长周期、超低频检测技术,避免电磁信号可能产生的一切干扰,由此研制地震前驱波检测装置及分析软件.提取前驱波信号与实际地震进行比对分析,结果表明,利用该装置及分析软件,对于记录前驱波和地震预测研究较以往有新的收获.     

Seismotectonic models and CN algorithm: The case of Italy

The CN algorithm is utilized here both for the intermediate term earthquake prediction and to validate the seismotectonic model of the Italian territory. Using the results of the analysis, made through the CN algorithm and taking into account the seismotectonic model, three main areas, one for Northern Italy, one for Central Italy and one for Southern Italy, are defined. Two transition areas between the three main areas are delineated. The earthquakes which occurred in these two areas contribute to the precursor phenomena identified by the CN algorithm in each main area.     

日本俯冲带地震发生过程的数值模拟研究

了解地震发生的动力学机制是研究地震发震原因的关键,而数值模拟的方法是高速、有效的手段.2011年3月11日日本东北部宫城县发生9.0级大地震,文中以该次大地震所在的日本俯冲带为研究对象,通过使用黏弹性有限元数值模拟,并引用接触对,建立了研究区二维数值模型,模拟俯冲带与上覆板片之间的滑动、黏滞到再滑动的过程,亦即断层失稳发生地震的过程.模拟结果显示,随着太平洋板块不断俯冲,在俯冲带上自发出现了断层闭锁、解锁到再闭锁的黏滑过程,且这种过程呈现一定的准周期性,大事件主要集中分布在20~30 km的深度范围内.根据俯冲带可能在俯冲过程中角度的变化,建立了不同的模型,进行模拟对比研究,结果表明,俯冲带的几何形态,以及俯冲角度变化所在的不同深度,对模拟的结果有不同的影响.     

断层地震孕育和发生的不稳定性模型

在以前的工作中,考虑直立走滑型断层地震,假设断层面微元破裂强度遵循Weibull概率分布,由细观力学方法推导出断层面的宏观本构关系是一个非线性函数,表现为弹性-软化塑性特征,在此基础上用稳定性理论研究了地震稳定性问题.而实际断层大多是倾斜的,为此,本文首先建立了由围岩和倾斜断层构成的平面地震力学模型,采用宏观的断层载荷-变形的全过程曲线,详细讨论了倾斜断层地震的不稳定性问题.结果表明,远场一旦施加位移,断层也同时错动,这可能与实际情况不符合.为了更好的模拟断层的初始能量累计过程,进一步对断层本构模型进行改进.考虑断层面破裂强度,采用Coulomb破裂准则,则断层表现为刚塑性本构关系,只有当断层面剪应力达到一个临界值时,断层才开始错动.研究表明,对于倾斜断层地震,与直立走滑型断层地震一样,系统刚度比β（围岩切线刚度与断层刚度最大值之比）是决定地震失稳的重要参数,只有当ββ≥1时,仅仅是断层无震滑动,不会发生地震.在远场应施以位移形式边界条件,以致地震失稳发生在平衡路径的位移转向点并伴有应力突跳.     

摩擦隔震结构中不同摩擦力模型在地震作用下结构响应分析

本文选用两种摩擦力模型来分析隔震结构的地震响应,运用newmark方法推导了隔震结构采用库仑摩擦力模型在地震作用下结构响应的计算公式。并编程计算了实例,进行了综合分析,得出质量比、摩擦系数对隔震效果的影响;并给出在其他结构参数相对稳定的条件下,滑移面摩擦系数的取值范围。     

汶川MS8.0地震前云南地区显著前兆观测异常分析

汶川M_S8.0地震前云南地区出现了显著的前兆观测异常. 该文从大地震的孕育范围出发分析认为这些地震前兆异常可能与汶川M_S8.0地震有关, 并认识到前兆观测出现的显著极值异常可能是M_S≥7.0大地震的前兆; 有学者认为大震震源区没有或较少出现前兆观测趋势异常是大地震的共性特征, 汶川M_S8.0地震的前兆观测异常也是相同的; 地震前兆观测异常开始和结束时间是多样的, 前兆异常的分布是复杂的, 因此利用震后总结的共性特征, 在震前对汶川M_S8.0地震作出预测是困难的.      

华北地区信号震地热前兆异常特征及其预报意义的初步分析

信号震是一种广义的前震;信号震地热前兆异常和主震地热前兆异常相似;信号震和主震沿同一构造体系活动;深入研究信号震与主震地热前兆异常的关系及地热异常特征和震源机制的关系,可能对地震预报的实践有一定的指导意义。     

地震发生过程的有限单元法模拟——以苏门答腊俯冲带上的大地震为例

地震预报由目前的经验预报走向物理预报,数值模拟地震过程是其中的关键.文中应用统一的数学公式表述了速率相关的摩擦接触中黏着（sticking）和滑移(sliding)这两种不同的运动状态;有限元计算中采用静力显示的时间积分方法,基于R最小策略,控制时间步长以保持力学状态变化稳定,从而保证有限元计算过程平稳、收敛.以2004年发生过Mm=9.3特大地震的苏门答腊俯冲带为例,模拟了俯冲带上俯冲板片与上伏板块之间的闭锁、解锁、滑动到再闭锁这一准周期性过程,即地震的孕育、发生过程.计算结果表明,俯冲带上具有较大尺度、介质均匀、摩擦系数相同的区域是产生大规模、大幅度整体突然滑动（即大地震）的条件;模拟的苏门答腊俯冲带上的大地震在时间上有准周期性,空间上有迁移特征,破裂由深部向浅部进行;此外,俯冲带的几何特征对大地震的震源位置有很大的影响.     

成组地震前兆异常特征

以华北2组成组地震为例,分析了成组地震的异常特征.成组地震的异常特征主要表现为(1)成组地震前兆异常时间跨度大,一般贯穿整个地震组始终,表现为长期的趋势异常.(2)成组地震前兆异常在大趋势背景下还会有小的阶段性波动,在每一次单一地震前又有新的响应.3)存在成组地震前兆异常的观测曲线在地震组开始前往往有较大转折或突跳变化.(4)不同学科成组地震前兆异常之间存在相关性.     

地震前兆台站网络通讯方式探讨

“十五”计划的地震前兆观测项目部分已经进入后期的建设阶段,各种实际问题亟待解决。本文就目前遇到的问题,提出了一些观点。首先介绍网络化前兆仪器的工作方式,然后介绍网络环境的构建方式,最后讨论台站网络环境建设中应该注意的问题和可能的解决方案。     

1998年宁蒗地震前兆短临异常分析

1998 年10 月至1999 年1 月, 在云南省宁蒗与四川省盐源之间发生了5 次5 级以上地震。通过对区域前兆原始观测数据的处理, 突出了这次地震前的应变和地磁总强度短临前兆异常信息。     

Constitutive relations for fault slip and earthquake instabilities

Constitutive relations for fault slip are described and adopted as a basis for analyzing slip motion and its instability in the form of earthquakes on crustal faults. The constitutive relations discussed include simple rate-independent slip-weakening models, in which shear strength degrades with ongoing slip to a residual frictional strength, and also more realistic but as yet less extensively applied slip-rate and surface-state-dependent relations. For the latter the state of the surface is characterized by one or more variables that evolve with ongoing slip, seeking values consistent with the current slip rate. Models of crustal faults range from simple, single-degree-of-freedom spring-slider systems to more complex continuous systems that incorporate nonuniform slip and locked patches on faults of depth-dependent constitutive properties within elastic lithospheric plates that may be coupled to a viscoelastic asthenosphere. Most progress for the rate and state-dependent constitutive relations is at present limited to single-degree-of-freedom systems. Results for stable and unstable slip with the various constitutive models are summarized. Instability conditions are compared for spatially uniform versus nonuniform slip, including the elastic — brittle crack limit of the nonuniform mode. Inferences of constitutive and fracture parameters are discussed, based on earthquake data for large ruptures that begin with slip at depth, concentrating stress on locked regions within a brittle upper crust. Results of nonlinear stability theory, including regimes of complex sustained stress and slip rate oscillations, are outlined for rate and state-dependent constitutive relations, and the manner in which these allow phenomena like time-dependent failure, restrengthening in nearly stationary contact, and weakening in rapidly accelerated slip, is discussed.     

Comparison between predictions using different simplified Newmarks' block-on-plane models and field values of earthquake induced displacements

The study is concerned with the assessment of simplified Newmarks' block-on-plane models available in the literature for evaluating the permanent earthquake induced displacements of cut slopes and embankments, and the recommendation of a well-verified model/procedure. For this purpose, incidents of earthquake induced displacements of geotechnical structures, were collected from worldwide literatures and used in the study. Actual values of displacements were compared with predictions using different models.Based on the analyses, interpretations and discussions in this study, it was concluded that the Nadim and Whitman method (Nadim F, Whitman RV. Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division, ASCE 1983;109(GT7):915–931) is the most accurate method for obtaining the earthquake induced displacement. The correlation coefficient between predicted values using the Nadim and Whitman method and the actual recorded ones for geotechnical structures was 0.770; the highest among correlation coefficients for other methods.     

WDC-D地震前兆综合观测数据的抢救和整编

概述了地震前兆综合观测数据抢救和整编的必要性; 介绍了前兆观测数据库的选取及特点; 系统收集了首都圈范围内(包括5省2市)的地震前兆观测数据, 并对其进行分析、 整编并入库。 通过WDC-D项目支持, 本专题共抢救和整编了8个单位共304个台站的前兆观测数据, 其中专业台121个, 地方台183　个, 共计1709个测项的344M前兆综合观测数据。 同时, 通过局域网和Internet为研究和分析人员提供了前兆综合观测数据的服务和数据共享。 文中分析了WDC-D项目数据共享服务的几种方式, 即局域网内基于C/S结构的应用、 广域网上基于B/S结构的数据下载服务及图形服务方式, 并简要分析了这几种数据服务方式的优缺点。 最后, 在总结和分析所做工作的基础上, 提出了几点建议。     

福建地区地倾斜中短期前兆异常识别及映震效果初探

对福建地区10年来的倾斜资料,统一用调和分析、差分分析、卡尔曼滤波和最大相关系数方法进行系统处理,提取异常信息,统计分析它们与该地区MS5级以上地震的关系,并对这几种方法进行评价。结果是：地倾斜固体潮M2波γ因子异常与地震的对应率为46％(P=54％),差分分析方法识别的异常与地震对应率为23％(P=42％),卡尔曼滤波方法识别的异常与地震的对应率为30％(P=34％),最大相关系数分析方法识别的异常与地震对应率为19％(P=37％)。     

Matter-element models for comprehensive earthquake predication and their applications

IntroductionExtentes is a new subject established by Chinese Prof. CAI Wen in 1983, which began fromstUdying the transform laws and solution methods for incompatible problems. In theory, eXtensionframes was supported by matter-element and eXtension mathematics. In pranical application, extension methods of itS own has been shaped. Their application techniques in all kinds of domainsare called extension techniques, which have come into the completed period at present. All ofabove have form…     

Matter-element models for comprehensive earthquake prediction and their applications

Extenics was a branch of mathematics for studying the incompatible problems. In this paper, basing on calculating the associative functions of all various indexes, we have obtained the quantitative assessment results of prediction indexes by introducing this theory into the comprehensive earthquake prediction through establishing the matter-element model for comprehensive prediction, so that the incompatible problems can be solved. The preliminary results demonstrate that this method has better prospects in comprehensive earthquake prediction. Foundation item: Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (196006).     

基于Web的前兆数据库网络查询软件

在“九五”期间海南省数字化地震前兆台网成果的基础上,使用ASP语言开发了基于Web的地震前兆数据库网络查询软件,实现了海南省地震前兆数据资料通过Web方式共享。文章详细介绍了该软件的技术思路、实现方法和多种功能。     

SQLite在地震前兆数据汇集器中的应用

首先概述地震前兆数据汇集器的软硬件体系结构及使用嵌入式数据库的优越性,进而介绍简洁实用的嵌入式数据库SQLite,并搭建平台进行可行性测试与论证,为地震前兆数据汇集器应用嵌入式数据库提供依据。