On the interpretation of slow ground deformation precursory to the 1976 Friuli earthquake

During three years preceding the 1976 Friuli earthquake, a continuous southward ground tilt was recorded by a tiltmeter placed near Tolmezzo, 15 km north-west of the epicentre of the impending earthquake. The cumulative ground tilt amounted to as much as 3 minutes of arc. Since the tiltmeter was placed in the proximity of an active fault, such a tilt can be explained if the fault slipped aseismically on its shallower section during the same three year period. Aseismic slip on the fault might have been caused by the same mechanism which concentrated stress in the region and eventually produced the 1976 earthquake.     

前驱波检测在地震预测中的应用

基于一种新颖的液体悬浮式长周期、超低频检测技术,避免电磁信号可能产生的一切干扰,由此研制地震前驱波检测装置及分析软件.提取前驱波信号与实际地震进行比对分析,结果表明,利用该装置及分析软件,对于记录前驱波和地震预测研究较以往有新的收获.     

华北地区信号震地热前兆异常特征及其预报意义的初步分析

信号震是一种广义的前震;信号震地热前兆异常和主震地热前兆异常相似;信号震和主震沿同一构造体系活动;深入研究信号震与主震地热前兆异常的关系及地热异常特征和震源机制的关系,可能对地震预报的实践有一定的指导意义。     

地震前兆台站网络通讯方式探讨

“十五”计划的地震前兆观测项目部分已经进入后期的建设阶段,各种实际问题亟待解决。本文就目前遇到的问题,提出了一些观点。首先介绍网络化前兆仪器的工作方式,然后介绍网络环境的构建方式,最后讨论台站网络环境建设中应该注意的问题和可能的解决方案。     

1998年宁蒗地震前兆短临异常分析

1998 年10 月至1999 年1 月, 在云南省宁蒗与四川省盐源之间发生了5 次5 级以上地震。通过对区域前兆原始观测数据的处理, 突出了这次地震前的应变和地磁总强度短临前兆异常信息。     

Constitutive relations for fault slip and earthquake instabilities

Constitutive relations for fault slip are described and adopted as a basis for analyzing slip motion and its instability in the form of earthquakes on crustal faults. The constitutive relations discussed include simple rate-independent slip-weakening models, in which shear strength degrades with ongoing slip to a residual frictional strength, and also more realistic but as yet less extensively applied slip-rate and surface-state-dependent relations. For the latter the state of the surface is characterized by one or more variables that evolve with ongoing slip, seeking values consistent with the current slip rate. Models of crustal faults range from simple, single-degree-of-freedom spring-slider systems to more complex continuous systems that incorporate nonuniform slip and locked patches on faults of depth-dependent constitutive properties within elastic lithospheric plates that may be coupled to a viscoelastic asthenosphere. Most progress for the rate and state-dependent constitutive relations is at present limited to single-degree-of-freedom systems. Results for stable and unstable slip with the various constitutive models are summarized. Instability conditions are compared for spatially uniform versus nonuniform slip, including the elastic — brittle crack limit of the nonuniform mode. Inferences of constitutive and fracture parameters are discussed, based on earthquake data for large ruptures that begin with slip at depth, concentrating stress on locked regions within a brittle upper crust. Results of nonlinear stability theory, including regimes of complex sustained stress and slip rate oscillations, are outlined for rate and state-dependent constitutive relations, and the manner in which these allow phenomena like time-dependent failure, restrengthening in nearly stationary contact, and weakening in rapidly accelerated slip, is discussed.     

基于Web的前兆数据库网络查询软件

在“九五”期间海南省数字化地震前兆台网成果的基础上,使用ASP语言开发了基于Web的地震前兆数据库网络查询软件,实现了海南省地震前兆数据资料通过Web方式共享。文章详细介绍了该软件的技术思路、实现方法和多种功能。     

Comparison between predictions using different simplified Newmarks' block-on-plane models and field values of earthquake induced displacements

The study is concerned with the assessment of simplified Newmarks' block-on-plane models available in the literature for evaluating the permanent earthquake induced displacements of cut slopes and embankments, and the recommendation of a well-verified model/procedure. For this purpose, incidents of earthquake induced displacements of geotechnical structures, were collected from worldwide literatures and used in the study. Actual values of displacements were compared with predictions using different models.Based on the analyses, interpretations and discussions in this study, it was concluded that the Nadim and Whitman method (Nadim F, Whitman RV. Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division, ASCE 1983;109(GT7):915–931) is the most accurate method for obtaining the earthquake induced displacement. The correlation coefficient between predicted values using the Nadim and Whitman method and the actual recorded ones for geotechnical structures was 0.770; the highest among correlation coefficients for other methods.     

福建地区地倾斜中短期前兆异常识别及映震效果初探

对福建地区10年来的倾斜资料,统一用调和分析、差分分析、卡尔曼滤波和最大相关系数方法进行系统处理,提取异常信息,统计分析它们与该地区MS5级以上地震的关系,并对这几种方法进行评价。结果是：地倾斜固体潮M2波γ因子异常与地震的对应率为46％(P=54％),差分分析方法识别的异常与地震对应率为23％(P=42％),卡尔曼滤波方法识别的异常与地震的对应率为30％(P=34％),最大相关系数分析方法识别的异常与地震对应率为19％(P=37％)。     

Matter-element models for comprehensive earthquake prediction and their applications

Extenics was a branch of mathematics for studying the incompatible problems. In this paper, basing on calculating the associative functions of all various indexes, we have obtained the quantitative assessment results of prediction indexes by introducing this theory into the comprehensive earthquake prediction through establishing the matter-element model for comprehensive prediction, so that the incompatible problems can be solved. The preliminary results demonstrate that this method has better prospects in comprehensive earthquake prediction. Foundation item: Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (196006).     

河北省地震前兆观测数据备份与恢复

河北省地震前兆数据库服务系统故障率升高,硬盘存储空间不足,特别是地震台站节点无备份数据库,服务器一旦崩溃必然造成地震台站节点数据库中数据丢失。本文通过Oracle数据库EXP与IMP工具提供的导出/导入功能,完成由省地震局数据库到地震台站节点（崩溃）数据库的数据恢复,形成一套定期备份并恢复数据的方案,用于河北省地震前兆观测数据备份与恢复。     

SQLite在地震前兆数据汇集器中的应用

首先概述地震前兆数据汇集器的软硬件体系结构及使用嵌入式数据库的优越性,进而介绍简洁实用的嵌入式数据库SQLite,并搭建平台进行可行性测试与论证,为地震前兆数据汇集器应用嵌入式数据库提供依据。     

通用地震前兆综合数据服务管理系统设计

介绍GEPS系统应用软件开发背景,阐述系统主要模块功能特点、系统数据库结构和系统架构模式,以及系统安全策略及访问控制功能的全局实现,论述系统开发过程中几个关键问题的解决办法.     

前兆台网遥控供电仪的设计

介绍了前兆台网遥控供电仪的设计思路和设计技术，就该遥控仪可实现的功能进行了描述，给出了遥控仪的技术指标和应用图例。该遥控仪可以满足遥测台站供电控制的需要。     

云南地方地震前兆监测资源的整合

通过分析云南省地震前兆监测目前的现状,提出整合全省前兆监测资源的方案。该方案的实施可以使全省近500套仪器的前兆监测资源能够得到有效监控、规范存储和充分运用。这将有利于云南省的地震监测预报,也有利于未来时期的监测规划。     

华北地区强震前兆空间动态场中短期综合预报研究

通过８０多种测震学指标的筛选和多种稳定性试验,探索以一种新的指标筛选法－“对比筛选法”选取地震学单参数,在此基础上提取地震学综合预报指标Ｐ值。由此,发展了一种新的测震学的定量综合预报方法ＳＱＩＰ。同时研究了非测震学前兆综合指标ＰＰ值的确定和应用效果检验及其空间扫描的动态显示,尝试了震兆指标和前兆指标联合应用于地震预报的研究。以动态的思维逻辑不断追踪地震活动的异常行为,判定地震在中短期的危险地点。就     

阿图什市5.2级地震与于田6.2级地震前兆异常分析

利用阿克苏台网中心前兆观测数据,采用动态分析、形态法对新疆阿图什市Ms5.2地震和于田县Ms6.2地震进行系统分析.发现两次地震前,阿合奇台地倾斜资料、乌什台水管倾斜资料、伸缩仪资料、体应变及辅助测项钻孔水位和静水位数据、地电数据均出现明显的震前异常.其中水管仪、伸缩仪、体应变、地倾斜表现为打破年变,水管仪震前几天出现高频抖动、日变形态畸变;体应变辅助测项钻孔水位和静水位、地电震前表现为突变.     

新疆数字地震前兆观测网络建设

介绍建设完成后的新疆数字地震前兆观测网络的整体功能,以及各种前兆观测手段在全疆的分布情况,给出了新疆数字地震前兆观测网络整体结构,数字地震观测仪器的基本信息、前兆观测数据管理模式等。     

DZQZ-1地震前兆仪防雷控制器的研制

DZQZ-1地震前兆仪防雷控制器,利用了微电脑时钟控制电路,控制接触器的导通和短开,自动循环地对两组电瓶充电和放电的切换,保证了前兆设备始终处在直流电瓶供电的状态下,真正切断雷电（电源、有线宽带）窜人口,从而达到防雷的目的。     

Certainty factors of earthquake precursory anomaly evidences CF(E)

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