陕西近50年极端气温事件分析

为分析陕西极端温度事件的气候变化特征,选用陕西75站1961～2010年逐日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料,应用气候统计诊断分析方法,分析了陕西近50年极端气温事件的气候变化事实。结果表明:近50年陕西极端冷事件发生的频次呈显著减少趋势,其中陕北长城沿线风沙区和黄土高原沟壑区的冷夜日数、冷昼日数、结冰日数、冬季寒冷日数、冬季严寒日数减少趋势尤为显著;关中平原霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数呈明显减少趋势,秦岭南麓浅山区和汉江河谷及巴山山区冷夜、冷昼日数也呈现减少趋势。与此同时陕西极端暖事件发生频次呈显著增多趋势,陕北长城沿线风沙区暖夜、暖昼日数线性增加率为6～7d/10a,秦岭南麓浅山区暖昼日数增加趋势显著,其线性增加率达到6.3d/10a,而关中平原炎热夜数也呈比较显著的增加趋势。     

The wet-dry changes in recent 40 years in taklimakan area

IINTRODUCTIONAlongwiththePetroleumexploitationofTarimBasin,consideringaboutwaterresources,peoplepaidmuchattentiontothestudyofthemodernclimatechangeinTaklimakanarea.SomePeoplehaddonemanalySeSwiththemeteorologicaldatainthearea(Yang,1992;Jietal.,1992;Zheng,1991;Xue,1989;Li,1989;Wenetal.,1988).BasedontheO~ionaldstaofprecipitationinrecent40years,thisPaperCarefullyanalyZedthewet-drychangeinrecentseveraldeCadesinTaklilnakanareaanditsneighdringareas(thenorthernXinjiang,QinghaiandGansuPro…     

陕西近40年气候变化特征的分析

利用陕西96个台站近40a气候资料，通过对气温和降水两个基本气象要素变化特征进行全面分析，得到陕西气候变化的一些特征。（1）近40a来，陕西平均气温在经历了20世纪60年代后期的低温后，从80年代中期开始有明显的上升趋势，陕北西部上升幅度最为明显；冬季平均气温明显上升，夏季平均气温有明显的降低趋势；极端气温明显上升，特别是90年代以后极端最低气温上升明显。（2）陕西平均年总降水量波动略有减少，自20世纪90年代以后冬季降水量增加明显，夏季降水量减少，尤其是关中西部增加明显。（3）年平均气温、季平均气温变化存在以1985年为跃变点，这次跃变比全国晚5～7a，比西北地区提前1a。     

地球系统科学数据共享网的气候-海面变化数据集建设

在地球系统科学数据共享网的长江中下游分节点建设中,全球气候-海面变化在中国东部地区的区域响应,是该节点系列数据库群建设的三大科学主题之一。在GIS技术和数据库技术的支撑下,通过对数据集建设的整体规划与技术实现,可望由通常的科学数据下载中心向科学数据服务中心转变。针对区域地球系统科学研究的需要,本文以气候-海面变化数据集为例,探讨了该数据集的建设目标,进行了数据集的整体规划与设计,该数据集由6个不同主题的科学数据库和文献库构成,文献库不仅是数据集的重要组成部分,同时历史文献也是重要的数据来源之一。进而讨论了数据库设计的区域编码规则、表结构和元数据描述;将数据检索划分基本数据、专题、空间和文献检索四类,并对用户检索的流程和机制进行了探讨。最后指出了以科学数据收集分析为目标进行数据集建设所需注意的相关问题。     

Analyzing and forecasting climate change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85°C/10yr if emission concentration of CO₂ remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO₂ decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65°C/10yr, 0.46°C/10yr and 0.27°C/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.     

近47年白银市气候变化及其对农业生产的影响分析

利用白银市4个代表站逐日平均气温、逐日地面最低温度，分别得到≥0℃初终日期、初终霜冻日期以及利用逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和逐月降水资料，对白银市近47a的气候变化特征进行分析，同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响，为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源，减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。     

HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERN URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LOESS PLATEAU

The influence of human activities on environment and climate change is the most conspicuous problem of the Loess Plateau, and it may be divided into two aspects: firstly, the excessive utilization of land by the human race causes the destruction of vegetation, and consequently large expanse of land is under desertification and the characteristics of the ground surface and the water and heat exchange on the ground surface have changed; secondly, the use of coal by industries produces a huge amount of carbon dioxide and trace elements, which enter into the atmosphere to cause air pollution.Data of 1951-1990 are collected from 69 meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau. After analysis, the decadal variations of temperature and rainfall in the last 40 years are obtained as follows: (1) In the arid zone of the north- west of the Loess Plateau, the increase in temperature is the largest. For the past 40 years, the annual mean temperature has increased 0.7-1.0 ℃ . In the semiarid zone of the middle part     

A MODEL SIMULATING THE PROCESSES IN RESPONSES OF GLACIER AND RUNOFF TO CLIMATIC CHANGE─A Case Study of Glacier No.1 in the ■rümqi River, China

①TheprojectsupportedbytheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina.Mountainglacierisaproductofmutuallyjointactionofclimateandtopography.AtthisPOint,climaticchangemakeglacieradapttoitschangethroughadjustingglacierareaandlengthfollowingtheglacierinnermovementlaw.Intheory,glacieralwayscorreSpondstoastablestateunderacertainclimaticcondition.Becauseoflimitationoftheglaciermovementlaw,theglacierhastograduallyadapttOclimaticchange.Also,climateisalwaysinchange.So,itisalmostimPOSSibleforglaciertor…     

A model simulating the processes in responses of glacier and runoff to climatic change

This paper presents a dynamic glacier model that simulates the processes in response of Glacier No. 1 in headwaters of the ürümqi River to various future climatic scenarios. The results indicate that the Glacier No. 1 will continue retreating if current climatic conditions prevail, until it reaches an equilibrium state of 1600 m in length after 700 to 800 years. If air temperature raise 1°C, the glacier would become a hanging glacier with a length of 300 m after 700 to 800 years. Due to its retreat, cooling function of the glacier would be weakened, resulting in the air temperature in glaciated area higher than that in ice-free areas. The results also indicate that the current glacier melt runoff is in higher value period in comparison with the runoff in the equilibrium state under the current climatic condition. If the air temperature continues increasing, however, the runoff would still increase to a new peak and then decrease rapidly. The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Study on vegetation and climate changes in Beijing region since late pleistocene

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Mean sea level changes near Weizhou island from 1969 to 2010

Tidal data from Weizhou, Zhapo, and Shanwei stations between 1969 and 2010 and from five gauging stations in the western Pacific Ocean provided by PSMSL, and the global mean sea level data recorded between December 1992 and December 2010 by TOPEX and Jason satellites were compiled and analyzed. The results show that the perennial mean sea level near Weizhou Island is 211.7 cm(relative to the water gauge zero), and the relative mean sea level rising rate is 2.2 mm yr-1 from 1969 to 2010, which is consistent with the relative mean sea level rising rate recorded at other gauging stations in the western Pacific regions and with the global mean sea level rising rate. The absolute mean sea level rising rate at Weizhou Island is 3.0 mm yr-1 from 1993 to 2010, also conforming with the global mean sea level rising rate(3.1±0.4 mm yr-1) during the same time period. The highest annual tide level at Weizhou Island has a rising rate of 4.6 mm yr-1 and shows a 20-year quasi-periodic variation from 1966 to 2010. The primary cause of the mean sea level rising is global warming.     

近40年来中国大陆地表气温变化估算

 本文对近20年来中国地表气温变化估算方法进行了全面的总结,并对不同研究者所采用的资料、时间尺度及研究结果进行了对比分析。结合当前国际上应用较多的几种升温估算方法,本文以1970-2007年的气温数据为基础,分别应用直接算术平均法、逐站计算法、区域面积加权法、一级差分法和空间插值法,对中国大陆近40年的升温幅度分别进行了估算,从结果的对比分析中揭示中国地表气温变化估算中存在的不确定性:中国大陆地区近40年来的增温趋势在0.30~0.43℃/10a之间,升温幅度在1.16~1.56℃之间;冬季升温最为显著,夏季升温最少;整体上北方升温幅度高于南方。不同计算方法计算得到的增温速率在绝对值上有着一定差异,但整体趋势是相同的。     

卫星气候数据集的应用研究与发展分析

卫星气候数据集是卫星气候研究的基础。在规范卫星气候数据集基本概念的基础上,针对现有基本气候数据集（FCDR）和专题气候数据集（TCDR）的分类方式,无法反映卫星气候数据特点的问题,认为应将专题气候数据集进一步划分为单一遥感仪器专题气候数据集、多种遥感仪器融合专题气候数据集及卫星与多源资料融合专题气候数据集等几类。这种分类方法便于用户更好地了解和使用卫星气候数据。然后,重点围绕基本气候变量和基本卫星气候变量含义、卫星气候数据集生产规范、国内外主要卫星气候数据生产计划等方面,综述了卫星气候数据集建设及规范化生产已取得的最新研究进展。在此基础上,分析了卫星气候数据集建设和应用中存在的主要问题,展望了卫星气候数据集发展,同时对我国卫星气候数据集建设提出具体建议。     

Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960–2010

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.     

Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Regional Climate and Human Activities on Saline-alkali Land Changes:A Case Study of Qian'an County,Jilin Province

Interdecadal and interannual variations of saline-alkali land area in Qian′an County, Jilin Province, China were comprehensively analyzed in this paper by means of satellite remote sensing interpretation, field flux observations and regional climate diagnosis.The results show that on the interannual scale, the impact of climate factors accounts for 71.6% of the total variation of the saline-alkali land area, and that of human activities accounts for 28.4%.Therefore the impact of climate factors is obviously...     

Winter climate change and sea ice-atmosphere interaction at high northern latitudes in ERA40 dataset

1 IntroductionGreen house gases, such as CO2,CH4, N2O and so on are released to the atmosphereconstantly by human activities. These gases insert positive radiative forcing to the climate.Meanwhile, aerosol, which are also released by human activities, ins…     

中国耕地变化区的气候背景对比分析

研究我国耕地变化区的气候背景,对于了解耕地资源的生产能力,评价耕地占补平衡政策的实施效果,实现耕地资源保护和粮食安全等具有重要意义。本文在分析全国耕地空间变化的基础上,从年平均气温、年降水量和日照时数三个方面,研究耕地增加区和减少区的气候背景,并将其进行比较和分析,以期为国家保护耕地资源和发展农业生产等提供建议。研究结果表明,20世纪80年代末至2008年4个时段,耕地减少区比耕地增加区的年平均气温高0.45~1.05℃,年降水量高56.77~79.59mm,年日照时数少45.80~98.83h。耕地显著减少区比耕地显著增加区的年平均气温高0.81~1.85℃,年降水量高85.69~305.26mm,年日照时数少86.96~207.85h。在四个时段中,我国耕地重心逐渐北移且海拔升高。若海拔高度不变,耕地增加区比耕地减少区北移0.5-1个纬度,耕地显著增加区比耕地显著减少区北移1-2个纬度;若纬度不变,耕地增加区比耕地减少区,海拔升高100~200m,耕地显著增加区比耕地显著减少区,海拔升高150~350m。随年份增加,耕地增加区和显著增加区与耕地减少区和显著减少区在水分条件上的差别越来越大。这些结论对于研究我国粮食生产能力、评价耕地占补平衡、调整产业布局等具有重要意义。     

Status of the Recent Declining of Arctic Sea Ice Studies

In the past 30 years, a large-scale change occurred in the Arctic climatic system, which had never been observed before 1980s. At the same time, the Arctic sea ice experienced a special evolution with more and more rapidly dramatic declining. In this circumstance, the Arctic sea ice became a new focus of the Arctic research. The recent advancements about abrupt change of the Arctic sea ice are reviewed in this paper .The previous analyses have demonstrated the accelerated declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent in the past 30 years, based on in-situ and satellite-based observations of atmosphere, as well as the results of global and regional climate simulations. Especially in summer, the rate of decrease for the ice extents was above 10% per decade. In present paper, the evolution characteristics of the arctic sea ice and its possible cause are discussed in three aspects, i.e. the sea ice physical properties, the interaction process of sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and its response and feedback mechanism to global and arctic climate system.     

Characteristics and variations of the picophytoplankton community in the Arctic Ocean

Picophytoplankton are responsible for much of the carbon fixation process in the Arctic Ocean, and they play an im- portant role in active microbial food webs. The climate of the Arctic Ocean has changed in recent years, and picophytoplankton, as the most vulnerable part of the high-latitude pelagic ecosystem, have been the focus of an increasing number of scientific studies. This paper reviews and summarizes research on the characteristics of picophytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean, including their abundance, biomass, spatial distribution, seasonal variation, commtmity structure, and factors influencing their growth. The impact of climate change on the Arctic Ocean picophytoplankton community is discussed, and future research directions are considered.