昆明城市建筑物外壁表面热力效应研究——不同季节建筑物外墙壁面表温和近旁气温时空分布特征

文章利用不同季节城市建筑物不同朝向外墙壁面表温和近旁气温的垂直观测资料,分析了外墙壁面表温和近旁气温的立体时空分布特征。得出:城市建筑物外墙壁面表温和近旁气温的立体分布存在显著的季节、朝向、高度和时间差异;温度极值出现的位置、时刻随季节和朝向不同而各异;导致温度日较差呈现显著的变化;而昼、夜平均温度的垂直变化同样呈现较大的季节、朝向和位置的分异性。     

1951-2010 年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征

以中国623 个测站1951-2010 年逐日气温观测资料为基础数据, 通过正交旋转因子分析对1951-1980、1961-1990、1971-2000、1981-2010 年4 个时间段的年、冬、夏半年气温变化特征进行分区, 并探讨分区结果的季节和年代际差异。结果表明:依据年、夏半年气温变化特征, 可将全国划分成8 个不同的区域, 且研究时段内年、夏半年气温变化的空间结构比较稳定;而依据冬半年气温变化特征, 可将全国划分为7 个变化区, 且冬半年气温每30 年分区结果存在着明显变化。另外, 通过对区域平均气温距平序列的变化趋势分析可以得出:1951-2010 年间, 中国各区域气温均呈上升趋势, 升温趋势最快的是东北区(0.30 ℃∕10a), 最慢的是华南区(0.13 ℃∕10a);各区域升温过程不同步, 东北区与滇藏高原区显著增暖趋势在1961-1990 年开始出现, 而其他区域则发生在1971-2000 年及1981-2010 年。     

Dendroindication of soil temperature in Baikalian-type depressions

A response of radial increments in coniferous species to year-to-year fluctuations in soil temperature of the Baikal and Upper-Chara depressions is demonstrated. The study revealed a reliable correlation between soil temperature variations and variability in the increment index of coniferous species in March and July–August (exclusive of the droughty Priol’khonie). Soil temperature at a depth of 0.8 m was reconstructed from tree-ring chronologies. It is found that the largest contribution to the value of a positive trend of soil temperature is made by its intense rise during the last decade of the 20^th century.     

气温变化对西峰黄土高原地温与梨树发育期的影响

用西北地区140站1961-2000年的气温资料和西峰黄土高原1971-2005年5,10,15,20cm地温和1984-2005年梨树发育期资料,分析了西北地区春季、夏季、秋季、冬季和年气温的变化事实,再用相关计算和典型年份对比,分析了地温的时间变化规律及其对梨树发育期的影响。结果表明,西北地区20世纪60年代冬季增温,其余降温,70年代均降温,80年代冬季增温,其余降温,90年代均增温,冬季的最明显。西峰10cm地温各季节呈持续升高的趋势,春季增温最明显为0.058℃/a,变幅也最大,冬季增温幅度次之为0.039℃/a,再是秋季为0.032℃/a,夏季增温幅度最小为0.029℃/a,上升趋势均通过0.05和0.01的信度检验。冬季、春季地温与梨树的各发育期均为负相关,即地温高,发育期早,地温低,发育期迟。冬季地温与梨树发育期相关最显著的是叶变始期和开花始期,相关系数为-0.41～-0.52,信度为0.05,春季地温与之相关最显著的是开花始期,相关系数为-0.68～-0.69,信度达0.001。春季地温对梨树发育期的影响具有明显的持续性和滞后性,冬季地温对梨树发育期影响有阶段性,春季地温对梨树发育期的影响比冬季的明显。     

A new approach to quantifying soil temperature responses to changing air temperature and snow cover

Seasonal snow cover provides an effective insulating barrier, separating shallow soil (0.25 m) from direct localized meteorological conditions. The effectiveness of this barrier is evident in a lag in the soil temperature response to changing air temperature. The causal relationship between air and soil temperatures is largely because of the presence or absence of snow cover, and is frequently characterized using linear regression analysis. However, the magnitude of the dampening effect of snow cover on the temperature response in shallow soils is obscured in linear regressions. In this study the author used multiple linear regression (MLR) with dummy predictor variables to quantify the degree of dampening between air and shallow soil temperatures in the presence and absence of snow cover at four Greenland sites. The dummy variables defining snow cover conditions were z = 0 for the absence of snow and z = 1 for the presence of snow cover. The MLR was reduced to two simple linear equations that were analyzed relative to z = 0 and z = 1 to enable validation of the selected equations. Compared with ordinary linear regression of the datasets, the MLR analysis yielded stronger coefficients of multiple determination and less variation in the estimated regression variables.     

大气环流因子对北半球气温变化影响的研究

首先分析了北大西洋涛动(NAO)、北太平洋涛动(NPO)和南方涛动(SO)对北半球气温影响的空间分布特征。冬季大气涛动对温度方差贡献主要是在低纬和中高纬大陆地区及北太平洋部分区域,40°N以北大部分陆地总的贡献率达30%以上,热带3/4地区也在30%以上。近百年气温和大气涛动关系表明,三个涛动对北半球冬季、夏季和年平均气温的变化贡献分别达31.8%、2.6%和12.8%,也是以冬季影响最大。用大气涛动可以解释近20多年来气温上升的很大一部分方差,这说明可能在原有气温上升的趋势上,由于叠加了近期大气环流引起的气温变化,所以才形成了70年代末以来的加速变暖现象。     

基于GIS的新疆气温数据栅格化方法研究

以新疆99个气象台站1971-2010年年平均气温为数据源,采用多元回归结合空间插值的方法对新疆区域气温数据进行栅格化研究。建立了年平均气温与台站经纬度和海拔高度的多元回归模型,对于残差数据的插值采用了反距离权重法(IDW) 、普通克立格法 (Kriging)和样条函数法(Spline)3种目前应用广泛的空间插值方法,针对于这3种方法进行了基于MAE和RMSIE的交叉验证和对比分析,结果表明在新疆的年平均气温的GIS插值方案中,IDW方法精度总体要高于其他两种插值方法。     

中国气温未来情景的降尺度模拟

由于GCM模拟的气温数据分辨率不高,很难用于区域尺度上各种生态系统的模拟。本文基于长时间序列（1964～2007年）的全国气温观测数据,结合经纬度数据、以及DEM、坡向、坡度等系列地形特征数据,利用空间统计方法,在构建年平均气温降尺度模型的基础上,运用高精度曲面建模（HASM）方法对HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2...     

1981-2011年川南山区地温和气温的变化特征

利用气象站点1981—2011年逐日0 cm土壤温度和气温数据,运用基本统计、线性回归、累积距平和信噪比分析了川南山区6个分区地温和气温的空间分布、变化趋势以及突变特征,分析并对比了地温和气温的关系。结果表明：川南山区年均地、气温变化范围分别在15.6~20.5 ℃和12.2~17.2 ℃之间,呈现出北低南高、高山低河谷高的空间分布格局。31 a来6个分区的年均地、气温均有显著上升趋势,但季节变化差异明显,冬季地、气温的增温率高于夏季。从不同区域来看,高山地带(Ⅵ区)的年、季增温趋势最为显著,是其他区域的2~6倍,且地、气温在1990年左右发生突变;河谷地带(Ⅱ区)的年、季温度变化最小且未发生突变。各区地温和气温呈极显著正相关(P<0.01),具有较高的一致性,但也存在非对称增温现象。山地(Ⅲ、Ⅴ、Ⅵ区)的年均、季均地温和河谷(Ⅰ区)的春季地温增温比气温更加强烈,故地气温差出现显著上升趋势,甚至发生突变。     

Relationship of minimum winter temperature and temperature seasonality to the northern range limit and species richness of trees in North America

Biologists have considered both winter coldness and temperature seasonality as major determinants of the northern limits of plants and animals in the Northern Hemisphere,which in turn drive the well-known latitudinal diversity gradient.However,few studies have tested which of the two climate variables is the primary determinant.In this study,we assess whether winter coldness or temperature seasonality is more strongly associated with the northern latitudinal limits of tree species and with tree species richness in North Amedca.Tree species were recorded in each of 1198 quadrats of 110 km × 110 km in North America.We used correlation and regression analyses to assess the relationship of the latitude of the northern boundary of each species,and of species richness per quadrat,with winter coldness and temperature seasonality.Species richness was analyzed within 38 longitudinal,i.e.,north-south,bands (each being ＞1100 km long and 110 km wide).The latitudes of the north-ern range limits of tree species were three times better correlated with minimum temperatures at those latitudes than with temperature seasonality.On average,minimum temperature and temperature seasonality together explained 81.5％ of the variation in the northern range limits of the tree species examined,and minimum temperature uniquely explained six-fold (33.7％versus 5.8％) more of this variation than did temperature seasonality.Correlations of tree species richness with minimum temperatures were stronger than correlations with tempera-ture seasonality for most of the longitudinal bands analyzed.Compared to temperature sea-sonality,winter coldness is more strongly associated with species distributions at high lati-tudes,and is likely a more important driver of the latitudinal diversity gradient.     

MODIS-based estimation of air temperature of the Tibetan Plateau

The immense and towering Tibetan Plateau acts as a heating source and, thus, deeply shapes the climate of the Eurasian continent and even the whole world. However, due to the scarcity of meteorological observation stations and very limited climatic data, little is quantitatively known about the heating effect and temperature pattern of the Tibetan Plateau. This paper collected time series of MODIS land surface temperature （LST） data, together with meteorological data of 137 stations and ASTER GDEM data for 2001-2007, to estimate and map the spatial distribution of monthly mean air temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring areas. Time series analysis and both ordinary linear regression （OLS） and geographical weighted regression （GWR） of monthly mean air temperature （Ta） with monthly mean land surface temperature （Ts） were conducted. Regression analysis shows that recorded Ta is rather closely related to Ts, and that the GWR estimation with MODIS Ts and altitude as independent variables, has a much better result with adjusted R 2 〉 0.91 and RMSE = 1.13-1.53℃ than OLS estimation. For more than 80% of the stations, the Ta thus retrieved from Ts has residuals lower than 2℃. Analysis of the spatio-temporal pattern of retrieved Ta data showed that the mean temperature in July （the warmest month） at altitudes of 4500 m can reach 10℃. This may help explain why the highest timberline in the Northern Hemisphere is on the Tibetan Plateau.     

祁连山青海云杉林树线温度特征

树线温度对于解释树线位置及树线形成机理、预测树线对于气候变化的响应具有重要意义。通过在祁连山北坡青海云杉林郁闭林内、树线地带、高山灌丛分布带设置土壤温度自动观测仪器,初步分析了青海云杉林树线温度特征。结果表明:(1)树线处青海云杉根际土壤温度(10cm深度)生长季平均值为4.9℃,低于全球树线生长季平均土壤温度(6.7℃)。(2)生长季长度方面,青海云杉树线(104天)与亚北极(Subarctic,103天)、北方林(Boreal,106天)树线相近。(3)高山灌丛分布带在海拔上高于树线地带,但灌丛地带根际土壤生长季节均温(6.4℃),生长季长度(122天)均高于树线地带,显示了树线之上灌丛相对于乔木生活型有更佳的保持根际土壤热量的优势,从而也成为在树线之上灌丛能够很好生长,并且取代乔木的重要因素。     

Variations of the temperature and solar activity in China

In this paper we analyze daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature data collected at 119 meteorological stations over five regions of China during the period 1951-2010. The series of minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures from each climatic region have similar signatures, but there are differences among the five regions and the countrywide average. The results indicate that the periods of faster warming were not synchronous across the regions studied： warming in northeast China and Tibet began in 1986, while in central-east, southeast, and northwest China the warming emerged in 1995. Furthermore, central-east and northwest China, and Tibet, have warmed continuously since 2000, but the temperature has decreased during this period in southeast China. We evaluated the evolution of these temperature series using a novel nonlinear filtering technique based on the concept of the lifetime of temperature curves. The decadal to secular evolution of solar activity and temperature variation had similar signatures in the northeast, southeast, and northwest re- gions and the average across the whole country, indicating that solar activity is a significant control on climate change over secular time scales in these regions. In comparison with these regions, the signatures were different in central-east China and Tibet because of regional differences （e.g., landforms and elevation） and indirect effects （e.g., cloud cover influencing the radiation balance, thereby inducing climate change）. Furthermore, the results of wavelet analysis indicated that the El Nino Southem Oscillation （ENSO） has had a significant impact on climate change, but at different times among the regions, and these changes were most probably induced by differing responses of the atmospheric system to solar forcing.     

Trends of summer daily maximum temperature extremes in Turkey

This work seeks to understand the variability of warm and cool events during summer in Turkey. Daily maximum air temperature data from 97 weather stations were analyzed to determine percentile threshold values (99th, 95th, 90th, 1st, 5th, and 10th) at each station. Trends in the percentile values were determined using the Mann–Kendall trend test. The analysis demonstrates an increase in frequency of warm, hot, and extremely hot days, whereas cool, cold, and extremely cold days show a decreasing trend. Increasing trends are statistically significant at the 0.05 and 0.01 levels for 13 and 46% of the stations, respectively. Significant decreasing trends have been detected at 0.05 and 0.01 levels for 19 and 15% of 97 stations, respectively. Analysis of the observations shows that the number of warm and hot event started to increase in the 1970s. Warm events are comparatively more numerous than cold events in western and southern parts of the country.     

甘肃张掖市冬季气温变化的时空特征

依据张掖市近50年来的冬季气温观测资料,运用Mann-Kendall法、小波分析、空间插值等方法,对张掖市冬季气温的时空分布规律和变化周期进行分析。结果表明:冬季气温总体上呈现增暖的趋势(β值为0.08),线性增长率为0.56℃/10a,相当于近50年冬季气温升高了2.8℃,冬季增温对全年升温的贡献率高达89%。1985年冬季气温发生突变,之后进入偏暖期,1987年后增温趋势更加显著。冬季气温存在10年左右和22年左右的振荡周期,其中22年左右的振荡周期较强。冬季气温空间分布不均,呈现出由东南向西北逐渐增温的趋势。冬季气温从20世纪70年代起就开始增温,东部增温速度明显高于西部,冬季气温增暖主要发生在最近的20余年内。