Modeling the near-field effects of the worst-case tsunami in the Makran subduction zone

As a first step towards the development of inundation maps for the northwestern Indian Ocean, we simulated the near-field inundation of two large tsunami in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). The tsunami scenarios were based on large historical earthquakes in the region. The first scenario included the rupture of about 500 km of the plate boundary in the eastern MSZ, featuring a moment magnitude of M_w 8.6. The second scenario involved the full rupture of the plate boundary resulting from a M_w 9 earthquake. For each scenario, the distribution of tsunami wave height along the coastlines of the region is presented. Also, detailed runup modeling was performed at four main coastal cities in the region for the second scenario. To investigate the possible effect of splay fault branching on tsunami wave height, a hypothetical splay fault was modeled which showed that it can locally increase the maximum wave height by a factor of 2. Our results showed that the two tsunami scenarios produce a runup height of 12-18 m and 24-30 m, respectively. For the second scenario, the modeled inundation distance was between 1 and 5 km.     

Tsunami Inundation Modelling for the Coast of Kerala,India

The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low.     

How does multiscale modelling and inclusion of realistic palaeobathymetry affect numerical simulation of the Storegga Slide tsunami?

The ∼8.15 ka Storegga submarine slide was a large (∼3000 km³), tsunamigenic slide off the coast of Norway. The resulting tsunami had run-up heights of around 10–20 m on the Norwegian coast, over 12 m in Shetland, 3–6 m on the Scottish mainland coast and reached as far as Greenland. Accurate numerical simulations of Storegga require high spatial resolution near the coasts, particularly near tsunami run-up observations, and also in the slide region. However, as the computational domain must span the whole of the Norwegian-Greenland sea, employing uniformly high spatial resolution is computationally prohibitive. To overcome this problem, we present a multiscale numerical model of the Storegga slide-generated tsunami where spatial resolution varies from 500 m to 50 km across the entire Norwegian-Greenland sea domain to optimally resolve the slide region, important coastlines and bathymetric changes. We compare results from our multiscale model to previous results using constant-resolution models and show that accounting for changes in bathymetry since 8.15 ka, neglected in previous numerical studies of the Storegga slide-tsunami, improves the agreement between the model and inferred run-up heights in specific locations, especially in the Shetlands, where maximum run-up height increased from 8 m (modern bathymetry) to 13 m (palaeobathymetry). By tracking the Storegga tsunami as far south as the southern North sea, we also found that wave heights were high enough to inundate Doggerland, an island in the southern North Sea prior to sea level rise over the last 8 ka.     

Revisiting the February 6th 1783 Scilla (Calabria, Italy) landslide and tsunami by numerical simulation

On February 6th, 1783, a landslide of about 5 × 10⁶ m³ triggered by a 5.8 M earthquake occurred near the village of Scilla (Southern Calabria, Italy). The rock mass fell into the sea as a rock avalanche, producing a tsunami with a run-up as high as 16 m. The tsunami killed about 1,500 people, making it one of the most catastrophic tsunamis in Italian history. A combined landslide-tsunami simulation is proposed in this paper. It is based on an already performed reconstruction of the landslide, derived from subaerial and submarine investigation by means of geomorphological, geological and geomechanical surveys. The DAN3D model is used to simulate the landslide propagation both in the subaerial and in the submerged parts of the slope, while a simple linear shallow water model is applied for both tsunami generation and propagation. A satisfying back-analysis of the landslide propagation has been achieved in terms of run-out, areal distribution and thickness of the final deposit. Moreover, landslide velocities comparable to similar events reported in the literature are achieved. Output data from numerical simulation of the landslide are used as input parameters for tsunami modelling. It is worth noting that locations affected by recordable waves according to the simulation correspond to those ones recorded by historical documents. With regard to run-up heights a good agreement is achieved at some locations (Messina, Catona, Punta del Faro) between computed and real values, while in other places modelled heights are overestimated. The discrepancies, which were most significant at locations characterized by a very low slope gradient in the vicinity of the landslide, were probably caused by effects such as wave breaking, for which the adopted tsunami model does not account, as well as by uncertainties in the historical data.     

Worst scenarios of tsunami effects along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt

Scenarios of tsunami effects represent a very useful technique for the definition and evaluation of tsunami hazard and risk for the Egyptian coast. This paper is an attempt to develop different worst scenarios of tsunamigenesis toward the Egyptian Coast for five segment localities along three different sub-regions (Hellenic Arc, Cyprean Arc and Levantine Coast) in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These segments are the southwest Hellenic Arc, southeast Hellenic Arc, northeast Hellenic Arc, west of Cyprean Arc and Levantine. For each of them, the scenario takes into account a seismic fault capable of generating an earthquake with magnitude equal to or larger than the highest magnitude registered in that region in historical times. Then the ensuing tsunamis are simulated numerically, highlighting the basic features of the wave propagation and roughly identifying the coastal sectors that are expected to suffer the heaviest tsunami effects. The output data indicated that the first wave of tsunamis from different segments attacked the nearest reference localities (city located nearest each segment) along the Egyptian shore between 28 and 50 min after an earthquake. Tsunamis from these earthquake scenarios produced maximum run-up heights ranging from 1.7 to 9.4 m at the shore. A Beirut Thrust scenario (Levantine segment) included the fact that only a small portion of the fault extended out into the sea, leading to a small effective tsunami source area. In contrast, the southwest Hellenic Arc segment (as in the A.D. 365 earthquake) has high displacement (15 m) and a long extensional fault, forming a highly effective tsunami source area.     

基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究

根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。     

Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province,China

Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province.     

The generating mechanisms of the August 17, 1999 İzmit bay (Turkey) tsunami: Regional (tectonic) and local (mass instabilities) causes

The M_W = 7.4 earthquake that affected the northwestern part of Turkey on August 17, 1999, and in particular the gulf of İzmit, had dramatic consequences also as regards tsunami generation. The main cause of the earthquake was a dextral strike-slip rupture that took place along different segments of the western part of the North Anatolian Fault (WNAF). The rupture process involved not only a number of distinct strike-slip fault segments, but also dip-slip ancillary faults, connecting the main transcurrent segments. The general picture was further complicated by the occurrence of subsidence and liquefaction phenomena, especially along the coasts of the İzmit bay and in the Sapanca Lake. Tsunami effects were observed and measured during post-event surveys in several places along both the northern and the southern coasts of the bay. The run-up heights in most places were reported to lie in the interval 1–3 m: but in the small town of Değirmendere, where a local slump occurred carrying underwater buildings and gardens of the waterfront sector, eyewitnesses reported water waves higher than 15 m.The purpose of this work is to investigate on the causes of the tsunami by means of numerical simulations of the water waves. We show that the tsunami was a complex event consisting at least of the combination of a regional event due to tectonic causes and of a local event associated with the mass failure. As to the first, we are able to demonstrate that the observed tsunami cannot be explained only in terms of the sea bottom dislocation produced by the main right-lateral dislocation, but that the prominent contribution comes from the displacement associated with the secondary shallow normal faults. Furthermore, the large waves and effects seen in Değirmendere can be explained as the consequence of the slump. By means of a stability analysis based on an original method making use of the limit equilibrium concept, we show that the slump was highly stable before the earthquake and that it was triggered by seismic waves. Simulation of the tsunami induced by the slump was carried out by a two-step numerical code that computes the landslide motion first, and then the generated water wave propagation. It is shown that the computed local tsunami matches the experimental data.     

Run-Up of a Solitary Tsunami Wave on a Sloping Coast

Within the framework of the nonlinear theory of long waves, we perform the numerical analysis of the one-dimensional run-up of solitary tsunami waves upon a plane sloping coast. We study the dependences of the run-up heights on the parameters of waves at the entrance of the shelf zone and on the slope of the coast. The run-up heights of tsunami waves are estimated for the bottom topography typical of the south coast of the Crimean Peninsula. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 11–18, July–August, 2005.     

有限断层模型在2015年9月16日智利Mw8.3级地震海啸数值模拟中的应用与评估

2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生M_w8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。     

Energetics of the Tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean: A Brief Review

The energetics of the most destructive tsunami in historical time, and that of the under ocean earthquake that triggered this tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean have been briefly reviewed. This latest tsunami has several other unique characteristics besides being one of the worst natural disasters in human history. It is the first truly global tsunami after modern seismographic and sea level monitoring networks have been put in place. It was the first tsunami on record detected by a satellite, even though at present, global satellite coverage of the oceans for real time tsunami detection is not adequate. Finally, the energy associated with the tsunami and the earthquake that triggered it is so large that speculation has been made about the normal modes of oscillation of the earth, that were triggered by the earthquake as well as some suggestions, that some of the earth's rotational characteristics may have temporarily changed to a discernible degree. Here, we briefly review the energetics of the tsunami and the earthquake that triggered it.     

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea is discussed. Prognostic numerical calculations of tsunamis were carried out for the tsunami sources uniformly distributed in the Black Sea basin (a total of 55 events). Their results are compared with the results of numerical modeling of the historical events (in 1939 and 1966) and the data of not numerous measurements. A preliminary forecast is made on this basis for the tsunami wave heights along the Russian coast of the Black Sea.     

Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast

Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.     

2015年9月16日智利Mw 8.3级地震:海啸波从近场到远场的特征分析

On September 16, 2015, an earthquake with magnitude of M_w 8.3 occurred 46 km offshore from Illapel, Chile,generating a 4.4-m local tsunami measured at Coquimbo. In this study, the characteristics of tsunami are presented by a combination of analysis of observations and numerical simulation based on sources of USGS and NOAA. The records of 16 DART buoys in deep water, ten tidal gauges along coasts of near-field, and ten coastal gauges in the far-field are studied by applying Fourier analyses. The numerical simulation based on nonlinear shallow water equations and nested grids is carried out to provide overall tsunami propagation scenarios, and the results match well with the observations in deep water and but not well in coasts closed to the epicenter. Due to the short distance to the epicenter and the shelf resonance of southern Peru and Chile, the maximum amplitude ranged from 0.1 m to 2 m, except for Coquimbo. In deep water, the maximum amplitude of buoys decayed from9.8 cm to 0.8 cm, suggesting a centimeter-scale Pacific-wide tsunami, while the governing period was 13–17 min and 32 min. Whereas in the far-field coastal region, the tsunami wave amplified to be around 0.2 m to 0.8 m,mostly as a result of run-up effect and resonance from coast reflection. Although the tsunami was relatively moderate in deep water, it still produced non-negligible tsunami hazards in local region and the coasts of farfield.     

2017年9月8日墨西哥沿岸Mw8.2级地震海啸观测数据分析与模拟

2017年9月8日4时49分（UTC）,墨西哥瓦哈卡州沿岸海域（15.21°N,93.64°W）发生M_w8.2级地震,震源深度30 km。强震在该海域引发海啸,海啸对震源附近数百千米范围内造成了严重影响。位于太平洋上的多个海啸监测网络捕捉到了海啸信号并详细记录了此次海啸的传播过程。本文选用了近场2个DART浮标和6个验潮站的水位数据,通过潮汐调和分析和滤波分离出海啸信号,对近场海啸特征值进行了统计分析,并采用小波变换分析方法进一步分析了海啸的波频特征。基于Okada弹性位错理论断层模型计算得到了强震引发的海底形变分布,并采用MOST海啸模式对本次海啸事件近场传播特征进行了模拟,模拟结果与观测吻合较好。最后,基于实测和模拟结果,详细分析了此次地震海啸的近场分布特征,发现除受海啸源的强度和几何分布特征影响外,近岸海啸波还主要受地形特征控制,在与特定地形相互作用后波幅产生放大效应,会进一步加剧海啸造成的灾害。     

Tsunamis in the central part of the Caspian Sea

This paper describes the geotectonics of the Caspian Sea basin and the seismicity of its central part. The seismicity analysis enables us to identify the most probable zones of tsunami generation. We also present a brief review of the historical records of tsunamis in the Caspian Sea. In order to estimate the tsunami risk, we used the method of numerical hydrodynamic simulation while taking into account the real topography of the Caspian Sea. The computation of the wave field for the possible tsunamis occurring in the central part of the Caspian Sea allowed us to estimate the maximum expected heights of the waves along the coast of the CIS countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan). On the basis of the earthquake statistics in the region and the results of numerical experiments, we show that the extreme wave heights can reach 10 m at certain parts of the coast. Such extreme events correspond to extended (up to 200 km) seismic sources with M _S ～ 8 and a recurrence period of T ≈ 1600 years. The tsunami wave heights are expected to be as high as 3 m for sources of lesser extent (<50 km) with earthquake magnitudes of M _S ～ 7 and a recurrence period of 200 years.     

海上丝绸之路海啸灾害危险分析

海上丝绸之路不仅是商业和贸易的通道, 也是东西方文化友谊的道路。2004年印度洋海啸对丝路沿线的多个沿海国家造成了重大破坏。因此需要对海啸发生规律和危害进行分析, 以确保海上丝绸之路上经济和文化交流的安全。为探索和识别海上丝绸之路上的海啸灾害, 本文给出了历史海啸事件的特征和规律。从震源震级、震源深度和水深等震源参数中发现了一些历史海啸数据背后的有用信息。本文还探讨了不同震级引起海啸的概率问题。分析结果表明：海上丝绸之路上的海啸主要发生在8个主要构造断层, 每个断层都有不同的海啸发生规律。在统计分析的基础上, 本文采用数值模型模拟了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸,计算结果展示了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸灾害程度。本文的研究成果有助于海啸灾害预警, 能够为保证海上丝绸之路贸易交流的安全提供科学参考。     

Statistical relations of the run-up height of Tsunami waves to the distance and energy of the source

A statistical analysis of the relation between the run-up height of historical tsunami events and the distance and magnitude of the source was performed on the basis of the known Historical Tsunami Data Base [5]. The sample from the database used for the analysis comprises 5638 run-ups caused by 628 seismic events. This analysis, together with the dimensionality theory, shows that the statistical average of the run-up height is inversely proportional to the distance from the source to a power close to 1/2 (that is characteristic of the cylindrically symmetrical case) and directly proportional to the 3/8 power of the earthquake energy.     

Relatioship between the intensity of tsunami and the location of the epicentre of underwater earthquakes near the continental slope of the South Coast of Crimea

Within the framework of the nonlinear theory of one-dimensional long waves, we performed the numerical analysis of the dependence of the intensity of tsunami on the shelf of the South Coast of Crimea on the location of the epicentre of underwater earthquakes near the continental slope of the basin. The calculations were carried out for the parameters of the model corresponding to the Yalta tsunami of September 12, 1927. It is shown that, for the same magnitude of the earthquake, the smaller the distance from its epicentre to the coastal line, the lower tsunami waves in the coastal zone and the smaller their vertical run-up. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev