第23太阳活动周期太阳风参数及地磁指数的统计分析

日冕物质抛射(Coronal Mass Ejection,简称CME)和共转相互作用区(Corotating Interaction Region,简称CIR)是造成日地空间行星际扰动和地磁扰动的两个主要原因,提供了地球磁暴的主要驱动力,进而显著影响地球空间环境.为深入研究太阳风活动及受其主导影响的地磁活动的时间分布特征,本文对大量太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的数据进行了详细分析.首先,采用由NASA OMNIWeb提供的太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的公开数据,通过自主编写matlab程序对第23太阳活动周期(1996-01-01—2008-12-31)的数据包括行星际磁场Bz分量、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压等重要太阳风参数及Dst指数、AE指数、Kp指数等主要的地磁指数进行统计分析,建立了包括269个CME事件和456个CIR事件列表的数据库.采用事例分析法和时间序列叠加法分别对两类太阳活动的四个重要太阳风参数(IMF Bz、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压)和三个主要地磁指数(Dst、AE、Kp)进行统计分析,并研究了其统计特征.其次,根据Dst指数最小值确定了第23太阳活动周期内的355个孤立地磁暴事件,并以Dst指数最小值为标准将这些磁暴进一步分类为145个弱磁暴、123个中等磁暴、70个强磁暴、12个剧烈磁暴和5个巨大磁暴.最后,采用时间序列叠加法对不同强度磁暴的太阳风参数和地磁指数进行统计分析.统计分析表明,对于CME事件,Nsw/Pdyn(Nsw表示太阳风质子密度,Pdyn表示太阳风动压)线性拟合斜率一般为正;对于CIR事件,Nsw/Pdyn线性拟合斜率一般为负,这可作为辨别CME和CIR事件的一种有效方法.从平均意义上讲,相较于CIR事件,CME事件有更大的南向IMF Bz分量、太阳风动压Pdyn、AE指数、Kp指数以及更小的Dstmin.一般情况下,CME事件有更大的可能性驱动极强地磁暴.总体而言,对于不同强度的地磁暴,Dst指数的变化呈现出一定的相似性,但随着地磁暴强度的增强,Dst指数衰减的速度变快.CME和CIR事件以及其各自驱动的地磁暴事件有着很多不同,因此,需要将CME事件驱动的磁暴及CIR事件驱动的磁暴分开研究.建立CME、CIR事件及地磁暴的数据库以及获取的统计分析结果,将为深入研究地球磁层等离子体片、辐射带及环电流对太阳活动的响应特征提供有利的帮助.     

中低纬地区电离层对CIR和CME响应的统计分析

本文利用中低纬日本地区(131°E,35°N)GPS-TEC格点化数据,分析了2001—2009年间109个共转相互作用区(CIR)事件、45个日冕物质抛射(CME)事件引起的地磁扰动期间电离层的响应.结果表明,电离层暴的类型随太阳活动的变化而有不同的变化,CIR事件引发的电离层正相暴、正负双相暴多发生在太阳活动下降年,负相暴多发生在高年,负正双相暴多发生在低年;CME事件引发的电离层正相暴和负相暴多发生在高年.CIR和CME引发的不同类型的电离层暴的季节性差异不大,在夏季多发生正负双相暴.电离层暴发生时间相对地磁暴的时延大部分在-6~6h之间,但CIR引发的电离层暴时延范围更广,在-12~24h之间,而CME引发的电离层暴时延主要在-6~6h之间.中低纬的电离层暴多发生在主相阶段,其中CIR引发的双相暴也会发生在初相阶段.电离层负暴多发生在AE最大值为800~1200nT之间.CIR引起的电离层扰动持续时间较长,一般在1~6天左右,而CME引起的电离层扰动持续时间一般在1~4天左右.     

基于Weimer模型的高纬地磁扰动预测

地磁扰动是空间天气中的重要现象,对地基技术系统具有重要的影响.准确预报地磁扰动可以有效避免重大灾害发生.本文基于Weimer电势和磁势模型发展了高纬地区地磁扰动的模拟方法,并与地面台站观测数据进行了比较.地表磁场扰动主要受电离层电流系统的影响,利用Weimer模式计算出电离层等效电流分布后,基于毕奥-萨伐尔定律推导了地磁扰动三分量与电流的关系,最终计算出地磁扰动量.模型的输入参数为太阳风速度、太阳风密度、行星际磁场和磁偶极倾角.模型计算结果与不同纬度和经度的地磁台站观测结果对比表明本文的计算方法能有效地模拟地磁暴期间地磁扰动特征.本文结果对今后发展高纬地区地磁场预报模型奠定了重要基础.     

不同起源地磁扰动期间极光沉降能量的统计研究

尽管对极光沉降能量(HP)的研究已经开展很久,但是关于不同行星际扰动源对HP影响的研究仍然很少.本文基于2001—2008年NOAA极轨卫星数据,对三类不同扰动源,即盔状冕流共转相互作用区(CIRs)、伪冕流CIRs和行星际日冕物质抛射(ICMEs)驱动的中等磁暴期间HP的变化进行时序叠加统计分析,讨论了相关太阳风背景参数、地磁活动强度以及耦合函数的有效性;研究了三类磁暴事件期间HP的南北半球不对称性.结果表明,在磁暴之前盔状冕流CIR磁暴的HP明显低于伪冕流CIR磁暴和ICME磁暴,盔状冕流"磁暴前的平静期"与Newell耦合函数关系密切,而与Russell-McPherron效应关系较小.盔状冕流CIR磁暴主相HP高于伪冕流CIR磁暴和ICME磁暴,可能与盔状冕流相应行星际|B_z|和太阳风数密度均较高有关.此外,在Kp≤4时,冬夏季半球HP的差别随着Kp增加而增加,相应的变化规律符合电导率反馈机制的预测;在Kp>4时,盔状冕流磁暴和ICME磁暴冬季半球的HP大于夏季半球的,伪冕流磁暴事件夏季半球的HP大于冬季半球的或与冬季半球的相近.     

Understanding CMEs and their source regions

CMEs are an important aspect of coronal and interplanetary dynamics. They can eject large amounts of mass and magnetic fields into the heliosphere which can drive large geomagnetic storms and interplanetary shocks, a key source of solar energetic particles. However, our knowledge of the origins and early development of CMEs at the Sun is limited. CMEs are most frequently associated with erupting prominences and long-enduring X-ray arcades, but sometimes with weak or no observed surface activity. I review some of the well-determined coronal properties of CMEs and what we know about their source regions, including recent studies using Yohkoh, SOHO and radio data. One exciting, new type of observation is of halo-like CMEs which suggest the launch of a geoeffective disturbance toward Earth. Besides their utility for forecasting the arrival at Earth of magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms, halo CMEs are important for understanding the development and internal structure of CMEs since we can view their source regions near Sun center and can measure their in-situ characteristics along their central axes.     

Effects of the Sun on the Earth's environment

Solar disturbances are observed to have significant effects in near-Earth space. Over the past half-century of observation, a relatively clear picture has developed of how and why the typical solar wind — as well as the most extreme solar events — drive geospace responses. It is clear that magnetospheric substorms, geomagnetic storms (both recurrent and aperiodic events), and even certain atmospheric chemical changes have their origins in the solar–terrestrial coupling arena. High-speed solar wind streams and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can often have strong interplanetary shock waves and southward magnetic fields which can initiate strong storm responses. We demonstrate in this review that available modern space-observing platforms and ground facilities allow us to trace drivers from the Sun to the Earth's atmosphere. This allows us to assess quantitatively the energy transport that occurs throughout the Sun–Earth system during both typical and extreme conditions. Hence, we are continuously improving our understanding of “space weather” and its effects on human society.     

行星际扰动和地磁活动对GEO相对论电子影响

利用1988—2010年小时平均的GOES卫星数据,对地球同步轨道(GEO)相对论电子变化进行了统计分析,研究了相对论电子通量(Fe)增强事件的发展过程,探讨了利于相对论电子通量增强的太阳风和地磁活动条件.主要结论如下:(1)GEO相对论电子通量即使是峰值,也具有明显的地方时特性,最大电子通量出现在磁正午时.午/夜电子通量比率随着太阳风速度(Vsw)增加而增大;在Dst-50nT时相对论电子具有规则的地方时变化.在太阳活动下降相,电子通量与各参数的相关性较好,与其相关性最好的Vsw、Kp指数以及三次根号下的太阳风密度(N)分别出现在电子通量前39~57h、57~80h和12~24h.(2)强(日平均电子通量峰值Femax≥104 pfu)相对论电子事件,在距离太阳活动谷年前两年左右和春秋分期间发生率最高,较弱(104Femax≥103 pfu)事件无此特点;大部分强相对论电子事件中,电子通量在磁暴主相开始增加,较弱事件中则在恢复相开始回升.(3)太阳风密度变化对相对论电子事件的发展具有重要指示作用.电子通量在太阳风密度极大值后0~1天达到极小值,太阳风密度极小值后0~2天达到极大值.(4)90%以上相对论电子事件是在磁暴及高速太阳风的条件下发生的,与其伴随的行星际参数和地磁活动指数极值满足以下条件:Vswmax516km/s,Dstmin-31nT,Nmin2.8cm-3,Nmax14.1cm-3,Bzmin-2.9nT,AEmax698nT.(5)磁暴过程中,Dstmin后日平均电子通量大于103 pfu的发生概率为53%左右,强/弱相对论电子事件占总数比例分别为36%/64%左右,磁暴强度对其无影响.磁暴过程中的Vsw、N和AE指数大小对于能否引起相对论电子增强起着指示作用.     

Sporadic and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances in 1859–1860 according to the archived data from the Russian network of stations

Based on an analysis of the available archived data from the Russian network of geomagnetic stations, it has been indicated that the known event of August–September 1859 was the first and the greatest event in the series of the recurrent geomagnetic storms. Similar series were repeatedly observed in the next years. These series are caused by the processes on the Sun and in the heliosphere related to the superposition of the solar wind flows. The sporadic and regular components in joint activity of the complex, including active regions and coronal holes on the rotating Sun, play the role of the Bartels M regions responsible for initiation and development of geomagnetic storms. Neither coronal holes nor active regions can separately explain observations. During interpretation, active regions and coronal holes should be considered as a unified complex.     

The Beijing network of digital geomagnetic pulsation observatories

ＴｈｅＢｅｉｊｉｎｇｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｏｆｄｉｇｉｔａｌｇｅｏｍａｇｎｅｔｉｃｐｕｌｓａｔｉｏｎｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｏｒｉｅｓＪｕｎ－ＣｈｅｎｇＺＨＯＵ（周军成）；Ｋｅ－ＬｉＨＡＮ（韩克礼）；ＹｕｅＬＵ（鲁跃）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，Ｓ...     

不同高度和不同地磁扰动期间热层大气密度模式值与探测值的显著差异

热层大气密度是空间大气环境的重要参数,经过多年的研究已开发了多种大气模式,但其误差普遍较大,尤其在磁暴期间偏差值甚至超过100%.本文利用中国星载大气密度探测器和CHAMP卫星加速度计在轨获得的连续探测数据,针对近10年(2003—2014)中多次强磁暴事件和多次中等强度扰动事件,即2003年11月、2004年7月和2005年8~9月多次强磁暴事件(Kp值均达到9),2006年4月、2012年4月的两次中等强度磁暴事件(Kp值分别达到7和6),分析和比对不同强度磁扰事件期间不同高度全球大气密度就位探测值与模式值(NRLMSISE00)之间的差别.在2005年8月24日强磁扰事件中,560 km高度中国卫星就位探测值上涨幅度约2~3倍,扰动区中的增变比高达5.7倍,375 km高度CHAMP卫星就位探测值上涨幅度约0.8倍,扰动区中增变比达4.0倍,期间大气密度模式值不仅没有出现明显的涨落,更没有出现强烈的区域扰动;在2003年11月和2004年7月的强磁扰事件中,CHAMP卫星就位探测值均有显著涨变和强烈扰动变化,而模式值无明显扰动变化;在中等强度磁扰事件中,高度560 km附近就位探测值在北、南半球高纬地区显著上涨,远高于模式值,高度350 km附近就位探测值在地球阴影区域显著上涨,上涨幅度也大于模式值.分析结果表明现有大气模式对地磁扰动(尤其是强磁暴事件)期间全球热层大气密度的响应并不明显,需要进一步改善.     

Solar and heliospheric geoeffective disturbances

The past decade has brought advances in several areas of solar-terrestrial physics which, when combined, provide nearly all of the pieces necessary for predicting geomagnetic storms. Advances in techniques for observing the Sun in X-rays and white light allow identification of solar disturbances headed toward Earth. Advances in our understanding of how the resulting heliospheric disturbances reflect aspects of the Sun's magnetic field allow predictions of their magnetic topology and, hence, provide some measure of the geoeffective southward component which they carry. Advances in our understanding of the relationship between transient heliospheric disturbances and high-speed streams and how storm strength depends upon solar wind density and the magnetic polarity of streams allow substantial refinement for prediction schemes.     

宇宙线小波分析在大地磁暴预报中的应用

利用Morlet小波变换方法对北京宇宙线台站的地面宇宙线强度在地磁暴前后的变化特征进行分析,得到:1)在平静期,北京宇宙线数据存在准24h周期性的特征,且通过分析周期为12h的Morlet小波"模",发现值稳定,且小于0.6;2)以90天为时间窗口,对2004年7月地磁暴前后的小波频谱变化进行详细分析,发现当发生大地磁暴时,宇宙线的静日准24h周期被打破,其他周期的波动开始增强.进一步研究发现,周期12h的波动在大地磁暴数小时到1天左右会出现显著增强,这一现象在2001、2002和2004年期间的大地磁暴前得到验证.3)Morlet小波"模"数据的急速增大是发生地磁暴的先兆特征,当小波模变化达到一定的阈值就可能发生大磁暴.本文分析了周期为12h时小波的模数据,对强地磁暴事件进行统计,选定阈值0.6,并通过2003年的6次大地磁暴进行预报验证,结果表明该方法不仅能够对大地磁暴事件进行预报,而且提前量满足预报需求,为基于宇宙线实测数据预报地磁暴方法提供了重要基础.     

基于陆态网络GNSS数据的2013年和2015年磁暴期间中国地区电离层特性研究

2013年3月和2015年3月爆发了2次相似的地磁暴,引起了全球不同地区电离层的变化。本文利用中国大陆构造环境监测网络260余个基准站在中国地区的GNSS电离层TEC观测数据,结合电离层测高仪和电离层甚高频相干散射雷达观测,对2次磁暴期间中国地区的电离层变化特性进行了对比分析。结果显示,2013年3月磁暴期间,中国不同地区电离层变化较弱或不明显,而2015年3月磁暴期间中国地区电离层变化整体表现为大范围的强负相暴,中国地区不同程度的电离层响应主要受到不同的磁暴强度和磁暴期间不同的能量输入影响。2次磁暴期间电离层F层不均匀体的发生受到不同程度的影响,可能由不同种类的暴时电场导致。陆态网络数据空间覆盖范围广、时间分辨率高,在研究中国地区磁暴期间的电离层变化特性方面具有优势。     

地磁秒采样数据智能分析系统软件

地磁秒采样仪器观测过程中,易受各种环境干扰造成数据异常,如磁暴、高压直流输电、人为干扰、仪器故障等,不易被发现并识别,若不能及时处理,将会造成观测数据质量下降。若诸多干扰与磁扰叠加,将更不易识别,导致数据的错误处理。为了提高观测质量,利用现有编程技术,开发地磁秒采样数据智能分析系统软件,实现对地磁观测仪器工作状态、各种干扰、磁暴等现象的实时监控和分析,及时发现异常并报警,同时利用多台数据对比智能分析软件,对复杂干扰和高压直流输电干扰进行自动识别,并数据曲线中标示干扰位置,提高数据资料处理的准确性和有效性。     

On the relationship between magnetic clouds and the great geomagnetic storms associated with the period 1995–2006

The fact that magnetic clouds are one of the main sources causing geomagnetic storms is a well-established fact. One of the issues is to establish those features of magnetic clouds determinant in the intensity of the Dst corresponding to geomagnetic storms. We examine measurements of geoeffective magnetic clouds during the period 1995–2006 providing geomagnetic storms with Dst indexes lower than ?100 nT. These involve 46 geomagnetic storm events. After establishing the different characteristics of the magnetic clouds (plasma velocity, maximum magnetic intensity, etc.) we show some results about the correlations found among them and the storms intensity, finding that maximum magnetic field magnitude is a determinant factor to establish the importance of magnetic clouds in generating geomagnetic storms, having a correlation as good as the electric convective field.     

Analysis of the positive ionospheric response to a moderate geomagnetic storm using a global numerical model

Current theories of F-layer storms are discussed using numerical simulations with the Upper Atmosphere Model, a global self-consistent, time dependent numerical model of the thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere-magnetosphere system including electrodynamical coupling effects. A case study of a moderate geomagnetic storm at low solar activity during the northern winter solstice exemplifies the complex storm phenomena. The study focuses on positive ionospheric storm effects in relation to thermospheric disturbances in general and thermospheric composition changes in particular. It investigates the dynamical effects of both neutral meridional winds and electric fields caused by the disturbance dynamo effect. The penetration of short-time electric fields of magnetospheric origin during storm intensification phases is shown for the first time in this model study. Comparisons of the calculated thermospheric composition changes with satellite observations of AE-C and ESRO-4 during storm time show a good agreement. The empirical MSISE90 model, however, is less consistent with the simulations. It does not show the equatorward propagation of the disturbances and predicts that they have a gentler latitudinal gradient. Both theoretical and experimental data reveal that although the ratio of [O]/[N₂] at high latitudes decreases significantly during the magnetic storm compared with the quiet time level, at mid to low latitudes it does not increase (at fixed altitudes) above the quiet reference level. Meanwhile, the ionospheric storm is positive there. We conclude that the positive phase of the ionospheric storm is mainly due to uplifting of ionospheric F2-region plasma at mid latitudes and its equatorward movement at low latitudes along geomagnetic field lines caused by large-scale neutral wind circulation and the passage of travelling atmospheric disturbances (TADs). The calculated zonal electric field disturbances also help to create the positive ionospheric disturbances both at middle and low latitudes. Minor contributions arise from the general density enhancement of all constituents during geomagnetic storms, which favours ion production processes above ion losses at fixed height under day-light conditions.     

Energy balance during intense and super-intense magnetic storms using an Akasofu ε parameter corrected by the solar wind dynamic pressure

Geomagnetic storms are large disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere caused by enhanced solar wind–magnetosphere energy transfer. One of the main manifestations of a geomagnetic storm is the ring current enhancement. It is responsible for the decrease in the geomagnetic field observed at ground stations. In this work, we study the ring current dynamics during two different levels of magnetic storms. Thirty-three events are selected during the period 1981–2004. Eighteen out of 33 events are very intense (or super-intense) magnetic storms (Dst ⩽−250 nT) and the remaining are intense magnetic storms (−250<Dst ⩽−100 nT). Interplanetary data from spacecraft in the solar wind near Earth's orbit (ACE, IMP-8, ISEE-3) and geomagnetic indices (Dst and Sym-H) are analyzed. Our aim is to evaluate the interplanetary characteristics (interplanetary dawn–dusk electric field, interplanetary magnetic field component B_S), the ε parameter, and the total energy input into the magnetosphere (Wε) for these two classes of magnetic storms. Two corrections on the ε energy coupling function are made: the first one is an already known correction in the magnetopause radius to take into account the variation in the solar wind pressure. The second correction on the Akasofu parameter, first proposed in this work, accounts for the reconnection efficiency as a function of the solar wind ram pressure. Geomagnetic data/indices are also employed to study the ring current dynamics and to search for the differences in the storm evolution during these events. Our corrected ε parameter is shown to be more adequate to explain storm energy balance because the energy input and the energy dissipated in the ring current are in better agreement with modern estimates as compared with previous works. For super-intense storms, the correction of the Akasofu ε is on average a scaling factor of 3.7, whilst for intense events, this scaling factor is on average 3.4. The injected energy during the main phase using corrected ε can be considered a criterion to separate intense from very intense storms. Other possibilities of cutoff values based on the energy input are also investigated. A threshold value for the input energy is much more clear when a new classification on Dst=−165 nT is considered. It was found that the energy input during storms with Dst<−165 nT is double of the energy for storms with Dst>−165 nT.     

2007-2012年Dstmin≤-50nT的中等以上地磁暴的行星际源统计

地磁暴的行星际源研究是了解及预报地磁暴的关键因素之一.本文研究了2007-2012年间的所有Dst_min ≤-50 nT的中等以上地磁暴,建立了这些地磁暴及其行星际源的列表.在这6年中,共发生了51次Dst_min≤-50 nT的中等以上地磁暴,其中9次为Dst_min≤-100 nT的强地磁暴事件.对比上一活动周相同时间段发现,在这段太阳活动极低的时间,地磁暴的数目显著减少.对这些地磁暴行星际源的分析表明,65%的中等以上地磁暴由与日冕物质抛射相关的行星际结构引起,31%的地磁暴由共转相互作用区引起,这与以前的结果一致.特别的,在这个太阳活动极低时期内,共转相互作用区没有引起Dst_min≤-100 nT的强地磁暴,同时,日冕物质抛射相关结构也没有引起Dst_min≤-200 nT的超强地磁暴.以上结果表明极低太阳活动同时导致了共转相互作用区和日冕物质抛射地磁效应的减弱.进一步,分析不同太阳活动期间地磁暴的行星际源发现:在太阳活动低年(2007-2009年),共转相互作用区是引起地磁暴的主要原因; 而在太阳活动上升期和高年(2010-2013年),大部分(75%,30/40)的中等以上地磁暴均由日冕物质抛射相关结构引起.     

Total ozone response to major geomagnetic storms and changes in meteorological situations

Summary The total ozone response to strong major geomagnetic storms (A_p≥60) in winter along the 50° N latitudinal circle is studied. The results add to the recent results of Laštovička et al. (1992) obtained for European middle latitudes (∼50°N) and to the results of Mlch (1994). A significant response of total ozone is only observed in winter under high solar activity/E-phase of QBO conditions (E-max) and seems to be caused by geomagnetic storm-induced changes of atmospheric dynamics. There are two sectors along latitude 50°N, which are sensitive to forcing by geomagnetic storms both in total ozone and the troposphere — north-eastern Atlantic-European and eastern Siberia-Aleutian sectors. The total ozone response under E-max conditions manifests itself mainly as a large decrease in the longitudinal variation of ozone after the storm, which means an increase of ozone in Europe. The observed effects in total ozone consist in redistribution, not production or loss of ozone.     

基于复杂度理论的地磁变化场时间序列特征分析

复杂度理论为研究地磁变化场提供了新思路和新途径.地磁变化场从物理起源上可以看作是一种复杂系统,因此,本文从军事工程应用需求出发,基于复杂度理论,提出运用样本熵、多尺度熵及滑动窗样本熵方法对不同磁扰程度下的地磁变化场时间序列进行复杂度特征分析,结果表明：（1）样本熵和多尺度熵能够很好地表征地磁扰动强度及演化特征,启发我们可设计一种新的“熵指数”来衡量地磁扰动大小;（2）滑动窗样本熵能够准确定位地磁扰动时间段,对于磁暴识别与预测、空间灾害性天气预警等有一定的参考价值;（3）Mackey-Glass时滞混沌方程随时间的演化呈现出与地磁场日变曲线非常相似的形态,因此,地磁变化场或许可用时滞混沌方程来表示,对于我们更好地认识地磁变化场物理机理、建模预测与地磁寻的等军事工程应用都有一定的意义.