地震黄土滑坡滑距预测的BP神经网络模型

地震滑坡的滑距与重力滑坡的滑距有着显著的不同,科学预测地震发生时黄土地区滑坡的滑动距离是合理评估黄土地区滑坡风险和减轻滑坡灾害的有效方式之一。基于海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡的400组野外调查数据,通过引入BP神经网络算法,论证了BP神经网络模型用于预测黄土地震滑坡滑距的适宜性和可行性;建立了地震诱发黄土滑坡滑距的BP神经网络预测模型,并通过67组数据进行了验证。BP神经网络算法和传统多元线性回归、多元非线性回归结果的对比显示,BP神经网络的预测更接近真实情况,具有较为理想的预测效果,可以用于黄土地震滑坡滑距的预测,并为圈定较为可靠的致灾范围提供依据。     

地震诱发黄土滑坡的滑距估测

认为用坡体波动振荡效应来解释地震滑坡的形成是合理的,地震动使坡体波动振荡产生的启程剧发速度会直接影响到滑后行程速度和整个滑动土体的滑移距离。最大滑距可分为地震时坡体波动振荡产生的位移和地震波动停止后滑坡的滑移距离两部分,先采用Newmark有限滑动位移分析模型计算前者的永久地震位移,再进一步计算后者。经海原地震滑坡实例计算,文中地震滑坡滑距计算公式实用有效。     

地震诱发滑坡的场点预测

因地震引起的滑坡可划分为５种类型：陡坡型、中间层型、液化型、地下水型和人工坡型。其中陡坡型最为常见,根据岩石硬度（用内摩擦角和粘度表示）具危害性,这种类型滑坡的直接起因是由于白色凝灰石或浮石层失狠所造成的。液化型和地下水型滑坡的机制还不很清楚,发展其预测技术仍然是未来的研究课题。就城市防灾而言,人工坡型滑坡是一个主要的问题,然而,有关这方面的研究进展却很缓慢。     

地震诱发崩塌滑坡危险区初步预测

地震崩塌滑坡是地震破坏的主要形式之一，在以往国内外中强地震中均有发生，地震崩塌滑坡给社会经济、人民的生命财产带来巨大的破坏和损伤。表1列出了我国近年来发生的几次重大地震崩塌滑坡灾害。     

陕甘宁晋地区黄土地震滑坡致灾距的初步研究

通过对陕甘宁晋地区黄土滑坡震害资料的分析,提出了地震滑坡最大致灾距的确定方法。依据区内８０个地震的滑坡震害资料的非线性拟合,初步建立了地震震级与地震滑坡最大致灾距的定量关系。     

GIS支持下的地震诱发滑坡危险区预测研究

为了满足对地震诱发滑坡危险区预测的不断增长的迫切要求，灾害评价成为帮助决策过程重要的基础工具之一。即使地震滑坡危险性各组份的评价很困难，但地理信息可辅助提出这种灾害制图的有关方法。描述了用于地理信息系统识别和定量计算不同地震滑坡危险区的技术方法，确定了地震烈度、地形坡度、岩土体类型和现存滑坡密度共4个因子参与的地震诱发滑坡危险性分析。在ARC／INFO DRID支持下，进行叠合分析，由此编制了云南省地震诱发滑坡危险区预测图。由地貌学家提出的地震诱发滑坡预测为规划和工程师提供了对区域规划和建筑工程有价值的技术方法。     

黄土高原地震滑坡与强震动记录数据库管理系统的构建与应用

地震滑坡资料与实际强震动记录是开展地震滑坡成灾机理研究的重要基础数据,如何科学管理这些数据资料,并最大限度地发挥其科学价值仍然是一个值得探索的问题。文章以黄土高原地区7次典型历史地震诱发黄土滑坡和125次地震(2001—2018年)的强震动记录为基础数据,依托开源GIS平台+MySQL数据库,构建黄土高原地震滑坡与强震动记录数据库管理系统。该系统界面规范、友好,参数获取方便,图表展示清晰、流畅,不仅为地震滑坡和强震动记录数据资料的管理与应用提供一个科学便捷的平台,也为黄土地震滑坡成灾机理研究提供坚实的数据基础,亦对黄土高原地区防灾减灾工作的开展具有一定的参考价值。     

地震作用下黄土斜坡的稳定性分析预测

基于对中国西部黄土地区大量地震滑坡实例的考察分析,对影响黄土斜坡稳定性的各类因素尤其是地震因素进行了分析,讨论了黄土斜坡滑裂面的产生机制及几何特征．在此基础上提出了一种基于随机搜索法和遗传算法确定黄土斜坡最危险滑裂面,进而对区域黄土地震滑坡进行预测的方法．以回回川滑坡为例进行了验证．结果表明,该方法具有较好的效果和实用性．     

中国西北黄土地区地震滑坡基本特征

针对西北黄土地区地震滑坡灾害严重的现象,对1654年天水南8．0级、1718年通渭7．5级、1920年海原8.5级和1927年古浪8．0级地震诱发的147个典型黄土地震滑坡进行了研究,分析了黄土地震滑坡的主要类型和基本特征,为黄土地区地震滑坡灾害的预防提供了科学依据。     

Newmark方法在芦山地震诱发滑坡分布预测研究中的应用

对于地震滑坡灾害而言,进行地震滑坡危险区划是降低损失的有效手段之一.因此,地震滑坡危险性预测方法的研究成为这一领域的热点.2013年4月20日芦山地震诱发了大量的滑坡崩塌,造成了严重的人员伤亡和社会经济财产损失.文中通过对地震灾区震后航片、遥感影像等的解译,初步获得此次地震诱发滑坡的分布概况.在芦山地震灾区的地形和岩性分析的基础上,基于Newmark物理平衡模型,对该区的潜在地震滑坡危险区进行了分析预测,通过对比本研究获得的潜在滑坡区域预测结果与解译的滑坡分布情况,表明Newmark模型是一种有效的地震诱发滑坡预测分析方法.进一步探讨了不同滑坡影响范围估算方法的差异,认为震级与产生滑坡最远距离之间的关系是一种较好的估算方法.     

Prediction of rainfall‐induced shallow landslides in the Loess Plateau,Yan'an,China, using the TRIGRS model

In this work, a transient rainfall infiltration and grid‐based regional slope‐stability model (TRIGRS) was implemented in a case study of Yan'an City, Northwest China. In this area, widespread shallow landslides were triggered by the 12 July 2013 exceptional rainstorm event. A high‐resolution DEM, soil parameters from in‐situ and laboratory measurements, water table depths, the maximum depth of precipitation infiltration and rain‐gauge‐corrected precipitation of the event, were used as inputs in the TRIGRS model. Shallow landslides triggered on the same day were used to evaluate the modeling results. The summarized results are as follows: (i) The characteristics and distribution of thirty‐five shallow landslides triggered by the 12 July 2013 rainfall event were identified in the study area and all were classified as shallow landslides with the maximum depth, area and volume less than 3 m, 200 m² and 1000 m³, respectively, (ii) Four intermediate factor of safety (F_S) maps were generated using the TRIGRS model to represent the scenarios 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours after the storm event. The area with F_S < 1 increased with the rainfall duration. The percentage of the area with F_S < 1 was 0.2%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 5.1% for the four stages, respectively. Twenty‐four hours after the rainstorm, TRIGRS predicted that 1255 grid cells failed, which is consistent with the field data. (iii) TRIGRS generated more satisfactory results at a given precipitation threshold than SINMAP, which is ideal for landslide hazard zoning for land‐use planning at the regional scale. Comparison results showed that TRIGRS is more useful for landslide prediction for a certain precipitation threshold, also in the regional scale. (iv) Analysis of the responses of loess slope prone to slope failure after different precipitation scenarios revealed that loess slopes are particularly sensitive to extended periods of heavy precipitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Runoff responses to afforestation in a watershed of the Loess Plateau,China

Afforestation has been suggested as a means of improving soil and water conservation in north‐western China, especially on the Loess Plateau. Understanding of the hydrological responses to afforestation will help us develop sustainable watershed management strategies. A study was conducted during the period of 1956 to 1980 to evaluate runoff responses to afforestation in a watershed on the Loess Plateau with an area of 1·15 km², using a paired watershed approach. Deciduous trees, including locust (locusta L.), apricot (praecox L.) and elm (ulmus L.), were planted on about 80% of a treated watershed, while a natural grassland watershed remained unchanged. It was estimated that cumulative runoff yield in the treated watershed was reduced by 32% as a result of afforestation. A significant trend was also observed that shows annual runoff reduction increases with the age of the trees planted. Reduction in monthly runoff occurred mainly from June to September, which was ascribed to greater rainfall and utilization by trees during this period. Afforestation also resulted in reduction in the volume and peak flow of storm runoff events in the treated watershed with greater reduction in peak flow. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau,China

Abstract

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and ecosystem is important in the study of the Loess Plateau, China, which is well known for its high erosion rates and ecosystem sensitivity to global change. A distributed ecohydrological model was developed and applied in the Jinghe River basin of the Loess Plateau. This model couples the vegetation model, BIOME BioGeochemicalCycles (BIOME-BGC) and the distributed hydrological model, Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins (WEP-L). The WEP-L model provided hydro-meteorological data to BIOME-BGC, and the vegetation parameters of WEP-L were updated at a daily time step by BIOME-BGC. The model validation results show good agreement with field observation data and literature values of leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity (NPP) and river discharge. Average climate projections of 23 global climate models (GCMs), based on three emissions scenarios, were used in simulations to assess future ecohydrological responses in the Jinghe River basin. The results show that global warming impacts would decrease annual discharge and flood season discharge, increase annual NPP and decrease annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Increasing evapotranspiration (ET) due to air temperature increase, as well as increases in precipitation and LAI, are the main reasons for the decreasing discharge. The increase in annual NPP is caused by a greater increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) than in plant respiration, whilst the decrease in NEP is caused by a larger increase in heterotrophic respiration than in NPP. Both the air temperature increase and the precipitation increase may affect the changes in NPP and NEP. These results present a serious challenge for water and land management in the basin, where mitigation/adaption measures for climate change are desired.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Peng, H., Jia, Y.W., Qiu, Y.Q., and Niu, C.W., 2013. Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 651–670.     

Hydrological responses to conservation practices in a catchment of the Loess Plateau,China

Since the late 1950s a series of soil conservation practices have been implemented in the Loess Plateau. It is important to assess the impact of these practices on hydrology at the catchment scale. The Jialuhe River catchment, a tributary of the Yellow River, with a drainage area of 1117 km² in the Loess Plateau, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to conservation practices. Parametric and non‐parametric Mann–Kendall tests were utilized to detect trends in hydrological variables or their residuals. Relationships between precipitation and hydrological variables were developed to remove the impact of precipitation variability. Significant linear decreasing trends in annual surface runoff and baseflow were identified during the treated period from 1967 to 1989, and the rate of reduction was 1·30 and 0·48 mm/year, respectively. As result, mean annual surface runoff and baseflow decreased by 32% over the period of 1967 to 1989. Seasonal runoff also decreased during the treated period with the greatest reduction occurring in summer and the smallest reduction in winter. The response of high and low daily flow to conservation practices was greater than average flows. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of biological crust coverage on soil hydraulic properties for the Loess Plateau of China

Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are ubiquitous living covers that have been allowed to grow on abandoned farmlands over the Loess Plateau because the “Grain for Green” project was implemented in 1999 to control serious soil erosion. However, few studies have been conducted to quantify the effects of BSC coverage on soil hydraulic properties. This study was performed to assess the effects of BSC coverage on soil hydraulic properties, which are reflected by the soil sorptivity under an applied pressure of 0 (S ₀ ) and ?3 (S ₃ ) cm, saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _s ), wetting front depth (WFD ), and mean pore radius (λ _m ), for the Loess Plateau of China. Five classes of BSC coverage (i.e., 1–20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, and 80–100%) and a bare control were selected at both cyanobacteria‐ and moss‐covered sites to measure soil hydraulic properties using a disc infiltrometer under 2 consecutive pressure heads of 0 and ?3 cm, allowing the direct calculation of S ₀ , S ₃ , K _s , and λ _m . The WFD was measured onsite using a ruler immediately after the experiments of infiltration. The results indicated that both cyanobacteria and moss crusts were effective in changing the soil properties and impeding soil infiltration. The effects of moss were greater than those of cyanobacteria. Compared to those of the control, the S ₀ , S ₃ , K _s , WFD , and λ _m values of cyanobacteria‐covered soils were reduced by 13.7%, 11.0%, 13.3%, 10.6%, and 12.6% on average, and those of moss‐covered soils were reduced by 27.6%, 22.1%, 29.5%, 22.2%, and 25.9%, respectively. The relative soil sorptivity under pressures of 0 (RS ₀ ) and ?3 (RS ₃ ) cm, the relative saturated hydraulic conductivity (RK _s ), the relative wetting front depth (RWFD ), and the relative mean pore radius (Rλ _m ) decreased exponentially with coverage for both cyanobacteria‐ and moss‐covered soils. The rates of decrease in RS ₀ , RS ₃ , RK _s , RWFD , and Rλ _m of cyanobacteria were significantly slower than those of moss, especially for the coverage of 0–40%, with smaller ranges. The variations of soil hydraulic properties with BSC coverage were closely related to the change in soil clay content driven by the BSC coverage on the Loess Plateau. The results are useful for simulating the hydraulic parameters of BSC‐covered soils in arid and semiarid areas.     

A study of scale effect on specific sediment yield in the Loess Plateau,China

Based on data from 148 hydrometric stations in the Yellow River Basin, an analysis of regional scale relationship, or the relationship between specific sediment yield and drainage basin area, has been undertaken in the study area of the Loess Plateau. For different regions, scale relationship in log-log ordinate can be fitted by two types of lines: straight and parabola, and for each line, a function was fitted using regression analysis. The different scale relationships have been explained in terms of the difference in surface material distribution and landforms. To offset the scale-induced influence, calcu-lation has been done based on the fitted functions, in order to adjust the data of specific sediment yield to a common standard area. Based on the scaled data, a map of specific sediment yield was con-structed using Kriging interpolation. For comparison, a map based on the un-scaled data of specific sediment yield was also constructed using the same method. The two maps show that the basic pattern of specific sediment yield was basically the same. The severely eroded areas (Ys >10000 t km-2a-1) were at the same locations from Hekouzhen to Longmen in the middle Yellow River Basin. However, after the adjustment to a common standard area, the very severely eroded area (Ys >20000 t km-2a-1) became much enlarged because after the adjustment, all the values of Ys in the lower river basin in those regions became much larger than before.     

Temporal variation in soil detachment under different land uses in the Loess Plateau of China

Measurements of temporal variations in soil detachability under different land uses are badly needed to develop new algorithms or evaluate the existing ones for temporal adjustment of soil detachability in continuous soil erosion models. Few studies have been conducted in the Loess Plateau to quantify temporal variations in detachment rate of runoff under different land uses. The objectives of this study were to investigate the temporal variations of soil detachment rate under different land uses and to further identify the potential factors causing the change in detachment rate in the Loess Plateau. Undisturbed soil samples were collected in the fields of arable land (millet, soybean, corn, and potato), grassland, shrub land, wasteland, and woodland and tested in a laboratory flume under a constant hydraulic condition. The measurements started in mid‐April and ended in early October, 2006. The results showed that soil detachment rate of each land use fluctuated considerably over time. Distinctive temporal variation in detachment rate was found throughout the summer growing season of measurement in each land use. The maximum detachment rates of different land uses varied from 0·019 to 0·490 kg m^–2 s^–1 and the minimum detachment rates ranged from 0·004 to 0·092 kg m^–2 s^–1. Statistical analysis using a paired‐samples t‐test indicated that variations in soil detachment rate differed significantly at the 0·05 level between land uses in most cases. The major factors responsible for the temporal variation of soil detachment were tillage operations (such as planting, ploughing, weeding, harvesting), soil consolidation, and root growth. The influence of tillage operations on soil detachment depended on the degree of soil disturbance caused by the operations. The consolidation of the topsoil over time after tillage was reflected by increases in soil bulk density and soil cohesion. As soil bulk density and cohesion increased, detachment rate decreased. The impact of root density was inconclusive in this study. Further studies are needed to quantify the effects of root density on temporal variations of soil detachment. This work provides useful information for developing temporal adjustments to soil detachment rate in continuous soil erosion models in the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.