东北三省流动人口居留意愿的空间差异及影响因素

基于2015年流动人口动态监测数据,综合运用空间自相关分析,趋势面分析等技术,结合二元Logistic回归模型,对东北三省流动人口居留意愿的空间分布和影响因素特征展开研究。主要发现：① 东北三省流动人口居留意愿呈现出“北高南低,东高西低”的空间格局特征,南北方向上的分异比东西方向大;② 流动人口居留意愿在空间上属于随机分布,齐齐哈尔市和黑河市位于高-高集聚区,哈尔滨市位于低-高集聚区。随着城市规模的增加,流动人口居留意愿呈现出先升后降的特征;③ 个体因素方面,农业户口流动人口、在婚流动人口、高学历流动人口、“80后”流动人口的居留意愿更强;④ 经济特征方面,收入与住房支出分别对居留意愿产生正向和负向影响;⑤ 社会因素方面,流入时间越长、职业类别为“专业技术及办事人员”与“商业服务人员”、就业身份为雇主、参加城镇职工医疗保险的流动人口居留意愿更强。     

江浙沪地区土地利用变化模拟和景观格局分析

土地利用／覆被变化对于生态系统多样性和区域生态经济系统可持续性具有深远的影响。本文基于地理信息技术,以江浙沪地区土地利用遥感解译数据为基础,采用景观格局分析法分析了江浙沪地区的景观格局特征;运用CA—Markov模型对江浙沪地区土地利用时空变化进行了模拟。1980-2005年期间,江浙沪地区景观格局变化特征是建设用地增加迅速,耕地集聚减少,建设用地增加主要来自耕地转移,其贡献率达到93．11％。各类斑块类型的破碎度提高;林地和建设用地斑块平均分维数增加,斑块形状趋于复杂,斑块空间分布趋于集中。总体景观破碎度不断提高,景观多样性和景观异质性增加,景观均匀度有所提升：2005年CA—Markov模型模拟结果和遥感解译数据具有高度一致性,Kappa指数达到91％,2010年和2015年模拟结果显示,耕地减少和建设用地增加趋势显著,耕地和林地的减少呈加速状态,建设用地增加的速度降低。未来发展需提高土地利用效率和注重生态格局安全,在提高城市化水平的同时又能兼顾生态保护,以提高区域可持续发展能力。     

基于空间自相关的中国省际人口迁移模式与机制分析

人口迁移具有空间指向性,表现为迁入地和迁出地在地域上呈现一定的空间集聚特征。然而,大部分针对我国人口迁移进行分析和建模的研究忽视了这一空间指向性及其影响。该文利用全国第五次人口普查省际人口迁移数据和相关资料,以空间自相关分析为基础,对1995-2000年我国省际人口迁移的空间模式与动力机制进行了初步分析。首先,运用全局空间自相关统计量(Moran′s I)对人口迁移流中的空间自相关程度进行了测度,发现研究期间我国省际人口迁移的空间指向性明显:从一个区域出发(或抵达一个区域)的人口迁移流均受到周边地区人口迁移的影响。为了进一步研究这种空间指向性对人口迁移规模的影响,分别采用重力模型(仅用距离变量捕捉人口迁移过程中的距离衰减效应)和空间OD模型(采用因变量空间滞后的不同形式对迁移流的空间指向性加以考虑)研究中国省际人口迁移的动力机制,对比两种模型的估计结果发现:1)空间OD模型在参数估计和模型拟合等方面均优于传统的重力模型;在选取相同解释变量的情况下,空间OD模型的残差平方和仅为传统重力模型的47%,模型拟合指标AIC值也大大缩小。2)在对中国人口迁移动力机制的定量分析中,如果不考虑人口迁移流之间的空间自相关(空间指向性)现象,会导致对社会、经济等变量作用和距离衰减效应的过高估计。     

中国国内旅游流空间场效应分析

从空间场效应的角度采用因子分析法,利用1999-2003年中国国内旅游抽样调查资料,分析国内旅游流的产生、分配、集聚、扩散的基本特征以及旅游流空间网络的相关性。结果表明:(1)经济是旅游流产生的主要驱动力,旅游资源是旅游流空间分配的主要驱动力; 目前国内已形成4大旅游流产生地和5大旅游流集聚地;(2)旅游集聚场与扩散场的等级结构受市场原则作用,表现为K=3序列的空间模式;(3)旅游集聚场地域结构呈"U"型特征,而旅游扩散场呈"三级阶梯"状格局;(4)β、γ指数揭示旅游流空间网络相关性较差。今后加快长江、黄河流域旅游带以及南部沿海、北部沿海和东北旅游区等"二带三区"的旅游网络化建设,是我国推进区域旅游合作的主要方向和重点区域,是实现旅游流空间流向合理调整与流量结构优化的关键。     

Residential Settlement Patterns among Immigrants in Atlanta Metropolitan Area,Georgia

This study investigates the diversity of immigrant populations and their spatial residential patterns at the census tract level within twenty‐nine counties of the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), using 2013 American Community Survey (ACS) five‐year estimates summary data from 2008–2012. Correlations coefficient analyses with local job opportunities, education level, and English proficiency and the presence of foreign‐born populations are also discussed. We find that immigrants have different patterns of settlement depending on their place of birth and region of origin. Local job opportunities, dominant language at home, and education levels also relate to the distribution of foreign‐born populations. Further research opportunities concerning differential settlement are discussed.     

Regional Inequality in China: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

The tremendous changes in China's development philosophy and regional economies during the last two decades have carved out selectively new locations of development across the nation. While politicians heatedly debate the acceptable levels of regional inequality, most scholarly studies focus on broad aggregate trends of inequality among provinces and groups of provinces, and pay little attention to identifying and conceptualizing sources and major agents of spatial change. This paper aims at revealing detailed spatial ramifications of the reforms, and at understanding the impacts of the state, local agents, and foreign investors on regional development. To this effect, we conduct a disaggregated and empirical study of Jiangsu, a coastal province experiencing dramatic economic and spatial restructuring. We show that local agents which favor rural industrial enterprises accelerated new growth in selected rural areas, in contrast to slower growth of older cities and state‐owned enterprises, resulting in a net decline of intercounty inequality. But the coalescence of state policy, local agents, and foreign investment has widened the historical gap between northern and southern Jiangsu, and is likely to accelerate intercounty inequality in the future. Our study demonstrates the utility of the “developments from above, below and outside” framework for analyzing key forces of regional growth in socialist transitional economies.     

A Review of “The Middle East Today: Political,Geographical and Cultural Perspectives”

The tremendous changes in China's development philosophy and regional economies during the last two decades have carved out selectively new locations of development across the nation. While politicians heatedly debate the acceptable levels of regional inequality, most scholarly studies focus on broad aggregate trends of inequality among provinces and groups of provinces, and pay little attention to identifying and conceptualizing sources and major agents of spatial change. This paper aims at revealing detailed spatial ramifications of the reforms, and at understanding the impacts of the state, local agents, and foreign investors on regional development. To this effect, we conduct a disaggregated and empirical study of Jiangsu, a coastal province experiencing dramatic economic and spatial restructuring. We show that local agents which favor rural industrial enterprises accelerated new growth in selected rural areas, in contrast to slower growth of older cities and state-owned enterprises, resulting in a net decline of intercounty inequality. But the coalescence of state policy, local agents, and foreign investment has widened the historical gap between northern and southern Jiangsu, and is likely to accelerate intercounty inequality in the future. Our study demonstrates the utility of the “developments from above, below and outside” framework for analyzing key forces of regional growth in socialist transitional economies.     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN CHINA'S CITIES, 1980-1989

In the 1980s, foreign investment in China's cities experienced a northeastward movement from the southern coast to the central coast, and began to penetrate into inland cities, Foreign investment clustered in coastal delta areas and along the Changliang and Huanghe rivers. To understand these spatial patterns, a linear regression model is established. Cities with better power supplies, seaports, water transportation, communication, and investment incentives provided more favorable locations for foreign investment. Agglomerated cities had a better chance of attracting foreign investment than widely separated cities, with larger cities not necessarily attracting more foreign investment. Regression residuals also are analyzed for insights into spatial trends of foreign investment. Urban foreign investment in the near future probably will continue to accumulate in the coastal delta areas. Provincial capitals likely will be favorable locations for foreign investment that will further penetrate from the coastal areas into interior regions.     

Exploring the future of rural–urban connections in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling urban expansion and its impact on food production in the Addis Ababa region

Abstract

The built-up area of Addis Ababa and its surrounding towns is expanding into the peri-urban region leading to high losses of farmland, directly influencing the food production for the urban population. This paper investigates the patterns of settlement growth in the region surrounding Addis Ababa and their impact on peri-urban agriculture using an urban spatial scenario design model. The effects of two population density scenarios are explored within the framework of a proposed master plan. The model output was used to estimate areas of different suitability levels that would be lost to the modelled settlement expansion. The settlement area in 2038 would represent 29% of the case study’s total area in the low-density scenario but only 19% in the high-density scenario. Compared to the low-density scenario, the high-density scenario would only require a third of the agricultural land transformed into settlement areas. Settlement development would contribute to higher losses of land suitable for cultivating important export products, high nutritional value and import-substituting products. The scenario approach can support sustainable regional planning for settlement expansion that conserves valuable farmland in the peri-urban area and contributes to building capacity for strategic planning of the city regions of sub-Saharan Africa.     

新石器时代晚期华北地区耕地重建

全新世以来农业的起源使全球人类活动日益加剧,而新石器时代晚期（在中国大约距今7 ka—5 ka）农业发展正处于从刀耕火种向耒耜翻耕过渡阶段,由此被认为是人类活动改变自然植被的关键时期。中国华北地区丰富的考古遗迹记录了该时期人类活动的状况。基于已发现和挖掘的考古资料,运用考古学关联建模方法推算出新石器时代晚期华北地区各聚落遗址的人口规模与耕地面积,并在此基础上重建了耕地空间分布格局。结果显示：① 新石器时代晚期华北地区的人口规模至少为50.61×10 ⁴人。其中,河南地区人口最多,约为30.46×10 ⁴人,山东地区约13.72×10 ⁴人,河北地区约6.43×10 ⁴人。② 耕地面积至少约102.22×10 ⁴ hm2,约是现代耕地的4.6%,整个华北地区垦殖率达到1.99%。河南地区耕地面积最大,约为61.52×10 ⁴ hm2,垦殖率达3.68%;山东地区次之,约为27.72×10 ⁴ hm2,垦殖率为1.75%;河北地区最少,约为12.98×10 ⁴ hm2,垦殖率为0.69%。③ 遗址周围3 km范围内是个体聚落耕地的主要分布区,约占总耕地面积的83.43%。④ 在地形分布上,63.36%的耕地分布在低海拔的平原和台地,仅2.43%分布在海拔1000 m以上的地区。就耕地分布的坡度而言,81.55%的耕地分布在坡度小于2°的地区;16.61%的耕地介于2°~6°的缓坡地区;6°~15°的坡地地区仅占耕地的1.84%。     

LOCATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FOREIGN EQUITY JOINT VENTURE INVESTMENT IN CHINA, 1979–1985

An examination of the locational characteristics of intended foreign equity joint venture (EJV) investment in China during the period 1979 to 1985 indicates that foreign EJV investment was highly concentrated in the coastal region, in the more developed areas of the provinces, and in large cities. The locational characteristics, however, differed between economic sectors and between countries of origin of investment. Although foreign EJV investment became spatially more dispersed through time, the impacts on the development of inland regions and backward areas in China remained limited.     

中国五大城市群人口流入的空间模式及变动趋势

城市群在中国城镇化格局中占有重要地位,也是快速城市化时期的主要人口流入地。本文关注京津冀、长三角、珠三角、长江中游和成渝五大城市群,利用人口普查和流动人口动态监测调查数据,从流入人口分布格局、流动范围和来源地等多维度剖析城市群人口流入的空间模式,并从居留和落户意愿空间差异的视角探讨空间模式的发展趋势及其对流入地和流出地的影响。研究发现,各城市群流入人口向中心城市持续集中,等级和空间分布格局总体稳定;流动范围有所扩大,省内流动增速普遍高于省际;沿海城市群人口吸引范围大但仍服从距离衰减律,不同来源地流入人口的城市群偏好存在差异。在流入地,沿海城市群中心城市面临流动人口管理服务的持续挑战,内陆城市群中心城市和一般城市吸引力并存;在流出地,平等开放的高质量公共服务供给是吸引人口回流的重要途径,少数地区的人口流失可能成为较长期的现象。     

Study of spatial patterns and spatial effects of energy eco-efficiency in China

Energy eco-efficiency is a concept integrating ecological and economic benefits arising from energy utilization and serves as a measure of efficiency in the energy–environment–economy system. Using the slacks-based measure (SBM) model considering undesirable output, this study first measures the energy eco-efficiency of provinces in China from 1997 to 2012. It then analyzes the spatial distribution and evolution of energy eco-efficiency from three aspects: scale, intensity, and grain of spatial patterns. Finally, it examines the spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of energy eco-efficiency in different provinces by means of a spatial econometric model. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) The overall energy eco-efficiency is relatively low in China, with energy-inefficient regions accounting for about 40%. Guangdong, Hainan and Fujian provinces enjoy the highest energy eco-efficiency, while Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang are representative regions with low efficiency. Thus, the pattern of evolution of China’s overall energy eco-efficiency is U-shaped. Among local regions, four main patterns of evolution are found: increasing, fluctuating, mutating, and leveling. (2) At the provincial level, China’s energy eco-efficiency features significant spatial agglomeration both globally and locally. High–high agglomeration occurs mainly in the eastern and southern coastal regions and low–low agglomeration in the northwestern region and the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Changes in spatial patterns have occurred mainly in areas with high–low and low–high agglomeration, with the most remarkable change taking place in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. (3) There exist significant spatial effects of energy eco-efficiency among provinces in China. For the energy eco-efficiency of a given region, spatial spillovers from adjacent regions outweigh the influence of errors in adjacent regions. Industrial structure has the greatest influence on energy eco-efficiency.     

巩义市农村居民点空间格局演变及其影响因素

综合运用GIS 技术、景观指数定量分析方法以及空间统计方法,分析河南省巩义市1990-2010 年农村居民点规模结构、空间分布、形态结构的演变特征,探索地形因素、区位因素以及社会经济因素对农村居民点发展变化的影响。结果表明：在快速城镇化背景下,巩义市农村居民点规模扩张明显,集约用地程度较低;居民点斑块形态趋于规则,规划管理效果已开始有初步体现;聚落斑块空间分布聚集特征明显,呈现大斑块低密度分布与小斑块高密度分布格局;但巩义市农村聚落近20 年来整体空间格局变化不大,只是局部集中趋势进一步增加,不仅在平原与丘陵地区具有集中趋势,在其之外的经济快速发展地区的集中趋势亦较为明显。居住空间格局变化与自然条件有关,但在时间与空间的微观层面上区位条件、社会经济因素具有更大的影响。本文对农村居民点的空间布局调整具有一定的政策指导意义。     

Migration patterns in India

"The chief objective of the present paper is to comprehend the broad spatial patterns of internal migrations in India." Aspects considered include data constraints, the magnitude of internal migration, interstate migration, migration to rural and to urban destinations, spatial patterns, and areas of origin and destination.     

江南丘陵地区乡村聚落地域分异特征研究——以湖南省为例

以江南丘陵湖南地区为研究对象,通过对18个抽样村进行实地走访与问卷调查,从乡村聚落的居住条件、居住设施和乡村居民的生产生活形态等方面,探讨江南丘陵湖南地区乡村聚落空间地域分异特征与规律。研究表明：乡村聚落研究是江南丘陵地区乡村聚落空间布局优化与调控的基础。由于地域范围广泛,区域内的资源禀赋与地域组合、经济发展基础、文化传统等条件差异悬殊,因此江南丘陵湖南地区乡村聚落发展的地域分异规律较为明显,在聚落空间格局（规模、密度、形态）、居住条件（住房面积、住房结构、建筑特色）、居住设施（道路、饮水安全、网络电视开通率等基础与公共服务设施）和生产生活形态等方面呈现出较为显著的盆地-丘陵-低山区、发达-欠发达-落后、近郊-远郊-偏远等地貌、经济、区位梯度差异。     

Disease environments and subnational patterns of under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

This study examined the subregional spatial distribution of child mortality risk (CMR) in sub-Saharan Africa. Data for maps were obtained from Demographic and Health Surveys in the 1980s and 1990s for 95 provinces. Two distinct regions are identified: West Africa and a belt of countries spanning East to Southern Africa. Some countries are missing from the analysis. CMR was higher in West Africa. East/Southern Africa had the following patterns: low mortality in Central/South and North/West provinces of Namibia, Botswana, and all of Zimbabwe, except Manicaland and Mashonaland Central provinces (adjoining areas with moderately low mortality); low mortality in the Kenya/Tanzania highlands, with the Rift Valley, Central, Eastern, Nairobi, and northern highlands of Tanzania (adjacent provinces with moderately low or moderate mortality); high mortality in northern Zambia and Malawi (adjacent provinces with moderately high mortality); and moderate or moderately high mortality in the Lake Victoria basin and western provinces. West Africa had south/north or coastal/interior patterns. Coastal and southern provinces had low or moderately low mortality, while interior provinces had high mortality. Regression models indicate that the spatial patterns in West Africa were due to socioeconomic differences. In East/Southern Africa, mortality differences were due to differences in intensity of malaria transmission.     

新疆典型绿洲城乡聚落规模体系特征及空间重构 ——以渭干河—库车河三角洲绿洲为例

随着乡村振兴战略的提出及实施,城乡关系也进入融合发展新时期,厘清典型地域城乡聚落规模体系的演变过程及现状特征并探明其空间重构与优化路径对实现农业农村现代化具有重要的现实意义。本文以新疆塔里木盆地北缘渭干河—库车河三角洲绿洲（简称“渭库绿洲”）为例,利用2009—2018年土地利用数据,采用GIS空间分析及位序—规模法则等方法,刻画了渭库绿洲城乡聚落规模体系特征;依据乡村振兴多级目标的理论内涵,探讨了渭库绿洲城乡聚落体系空间重构模式及优化路径。结果表明：① 渭库绿洲城镇村体系建设过程中城镇主导作用较弱,城乡聚落规模总体扩张较快,城乡人口与聚落增长反差较大,乡村人地关系失调特征明显;② 渭库绿洲城乡聚落规模分布整体服从位序—规模法则,零星聚落“摆尾”现象加剧且空间无序扩张特征显著,城乡聚落空间分布特征具有明显的县城、中心乡镇、干渠及道路指向性,但向中心乡镇空间集聚趋势不明显;③ 渭库绿洲城乡聚落规模体系空间重构的首要举措是整治零星斑块,对典型样区设定了3个优化目标并对空间重构路径进行了逻辑解析,提出了5种整治方向。基于乡村振兴多级目标,构建以土地要素流动为关键的空间重构方案,对促进渭库绿洲城乡聚落规模体系结构优化与功能协调、实现乡村振兴具有重要现实意义。     

欠发达地区聚落景观空间分布特征及其影响因子分析——以安徽省宿州地区为例

以欠发达地区——皖北宿州地区的聚落为研究对象,采用景观格局分析软件FRAGSTATS计算了5个景观格局指标。用ArcGIS软件计算了形状指数、景观类型空间邻接比例、最邻近指数、最近距离以及聚落的耕作半径,分析了该区聚落景观的空间格局特征及影响因子。结果表明:耕地是宿州地区的景观基质,聚落是宿州地区分布最广、斑块数目最多的景观类型;耕地是影响农村聚落分布格局的重要因子;农村聚落分布受中心城镇影响明显;用缓冲区的方法求取耕作半径在耕地分布均匀地区较为实用。     

Using autologistic spatial models to simulate the distribution of land-use patterns in Zhangjiajie, Hunan Province

Nowadays, spatial simulation on land use patterns is one of the key contents of LUCC. Modeling is an important tool for simulating land use patterns due to its ability to integrate measurements of changes in land cover and the associated drivers. The conventional regression model can only analyze the correlation between land use types and driving factors, but cannot depict the spatial autocorrelation characteristics. Land uses in Yongding County, which is located in the typical karst mountain areas in northwestern Hunan province, were investigated by means of modeling the spatial autocorrelation of land use types with the purpose of deriving better spatial land use patterns on the basis of terrain characteristics and infrastructural conditions. Through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a conventional logistic model, we constructed a regression model (Autologistic model), and used this model to simulate and analyze the spatial land use patterns in Yongding County. According to the comparison with the conventional logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, this model showed better goodness and higher accuracy of fitting. The distribution of arable land, wood land, built-up land and unused land yielded areas under the ROC curves (AUC) was improved to 0.893, 0.940, 0.907 and 0.863 respectively with the autologistic model. It is argued that the improved model based on autologistic method was reasonable to a certain extent. Meanwhile, these analysis results could provide valuable information for modeling future land use change scenarios with actual conditions of local and regional land use, and the probability maps of land use types obtained from this study could also support government decision-making on land use management for Yongding County and other similar areas.