CLIMATOLOGY OF SURFACE CYCLONE TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY FOR HEAVY-SNOW EVENTS AT THREE MIDWESTERN STATIONS

In this paper, we assess interstorm cyclone variations in intensity and motion for heavy-snow events at three north-central U.S. stations: Minneapolis, Madison, and Indianapolis. Daily data for the period from 1966 to 1996 were used to select the 157 storm events. Heavy-snow cyclone track location (latitude and longitude) and intensity (central pressure) means and standard deviations are calculated for each station and related to snowfall magnitude. The most northwesterly of the three stations, Minneapolis, had the largest median heavy-snowfall total and also the largest standard deviation in heavy-snowfall amount. Statistical analysis of surface cyclone parameters reveals significant interstation differences in storm trajectory and intensity measures for all cyclones and cyclogenesis group subsets. Chi-square tests suggest that the distribution of storms by month and cyclogenesis type is significantly nonrandom for all stations. Summary findings indicate that Midwestern heavy-snow events are dominated by southern Great Plains cyclones and that storms from secondary cyclogenic regions contribute to significant differences at the three selected locations. [Key words: cyclones, snowfall, Midwest.]     

A spatiotemporal analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Atlantic Basin and their relationship to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

There has been an enhanced focus on Atlantic tropical cyclone climatologies with the significant cyclones of the past decade and the associated loss of life and property. This study examines the geographic location of cyclone tracks and their relationship to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The average annual cyclone track latitude and longitude correlate positively with hurricane-season El Niño indices, indicating that during El Niño conditions, tropical cyclone tracks are shifted northward and eastward. June–November indices explain 11–22% and 3–11% of the variance in cyclone track latitude and longitude, respectively. Examination of the strongest and weakest El Niño years yields similar results. Higher sea level pressure over North America, a slight contraction of the Bermuda High, and a slight decrease in 500 mb heights during El Niño years helps to explain the observed northward and eastward movement of tropical cyclone tracks during El Niño years. Additionally, weaker easterly and stronger southerly winds on the western side of the North Atlantic Basin exist during El Niño years. Although future tropical cyclone track projection is beyond the scope of this research, these results may provide insight into forecast improvement and ultimately better responses for coastal communities.     

CLIMATOLOGICAL CLASSIFICATION OF SEVERE WIND-DRIVEN RAIN EVENTS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES

This paper follows recent studies of wind-driven rain (WDR), and statistically defines a “severe” WDR event. The research suggests a classification for severe WDR events by association with larger-scale weather systems. The study incorporates data for the period 1971 to 1995 and, from these data, the analysis reveals that severe WDR events are confined mainly to the southern United States and occur most frequently in the cold and transition seasons. Extratropical cyclones are the most common synoptic-scale weather systems associated with severe WDR events. Extratropical cyclones originating in three areas accounted for more than 70 percent of the severe events in the study. The cyclone types are referred to as Colorado Lows (CLs), Gulf Lows (GLs), and Texas Lows (TLs). The attendant synoptic-scale conditions of cyclones that produced severe WDR events differ significantly from extratropical cyclones originating in similar areas but not producing severe events. Key differences between the two cyclone populations are the cyclone track trajectories and the low and midlevel synoptic environments promoting cyclone intensification. [Key words: wind-driven rain (WDR), synoptic climatology, extratropical cyclones, United States.]     

Forthcoming events

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) produce high winds that can generate waves capable of damaging coral reefs. As cyclones frequently pass through northeast Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), it is important to understand how the spatial distribution of reef damage changes over time. However, direct measurements of wave damage, or even wave heights or wind speeds, are rare within the GBR. An important factor in estimating whether cyclone damage was possible is the magnitude and duration of high‐energy wind and waves. Thus, before the spatio‐temporal dynamics of past cyclone damage can be modelled, it is necessary to reconstruct the spread, intensity, and duration of high‐energy conditions during individual cyclones. This was done every hour along the track taken by each of 85 cyclones that passed near the GBR from 1969 to 2003, by implementing a cyclone wind hindcasting model directly within a raster GIS using cyclone data available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Three measures of cyclone energy (maximum wind speed—MAX, duration of gales—GALES, and continuous duration of gales—CGALES) were derived from these data. For three cyclones, where field data documenting actual reef damage from cyclone‐generated waves were available, the predictive ability of each measure was assessed statistically. All three performed better in predicting reef damage at sites surveyed along the high‐energy reef front than those surveyed along the more protected reef back. MAX performed best for cyclone Joy (r ² = 0.5), while CGALES performed best for cyclones Ivor (r ² = 0.23) and Justin (r ² = 0.48). Using thresholds for MAX and GALES obtained via comparison with field data of damage, it was possible to produce a preliminary prediction of the risk of wave damage across the GBR from each of the 85 cyclones. The results suggest that while up to two‐thirds of the GBR was at risk from some damage for 30–50% of the time series (～18 out of 35 years), only scattered areas of the region were at risk more frequently than that.     

Cyclones over Fram Strait: impact on sea ice and variability

The relation between sea ice drift and cyclone activity in the Fram Strait region was studied by both in situ observations and long-term time series. In a 1999 field campaign, the atmospheric forcing and the ice drift were determined using a research aircraft and drifting ice buoys. One cyclone entered the experimental area and caused a temporal increase in ice drift speed. Long-term studies are based on 16 years of cyclone statistics and model, satellite and sonar ice drift estimates. The actual impact of a cyclone depends on its particular track through Fram Strait. On the average, cyclones increase the Arctic ice export through Fram Strait.     

西北太平洋热带气旋快速增强与环境垂直风切变统计分析

利用1990-2009年美国联合台风警报中心整编的热带气旋（TC）最佳路径资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析等压面流场资料,在分析西北太平洋TC每24 h强度变化统计特征的基础上,确定了西北太平洋TC快速增强的阈值,对比不同阈值条件下,TC快速增强初始时刻的强度,TC快速增强发生的季节变化和空间分布特征,进一步研究环境垂直风切变与TC快速增强的关系。结果表明：在西北太平洋海区,当TC强度24 h变化达到样本累积百分率的88%、90%、93%和96%的概率时,对应的强度变化值分别为25 KT、30 KT、35 KT和40 KT,定义它们为TC快速增强的阈值。该阈值越大,快速增强初始时刻的强度也越强。60%左右的TC快速增强发生在8-10月,TC快速增强的空间分布集中于125°-150°E、10°-25°N的矩形区域内。对流层不同层次的垂直风切变与TC快速增强的关系有差异,TC快速增强阈值为40 KT时对应的对流层中上层（200~500 hPa）、对流层中下层（500~850 hPa）和对流层（200~850 hPa）的垂直风切变值的概率分布显示：当垂直风切变≥12 m/s时,分别只有9.7%、1.5%、11.1%的TC可以快速增强;且其与TC快速增强时强度变化的相关系数分别为-0.15、0、-0.04,以200~500 hPa的最为显著,表明对流层中上层垂直风切变对TC强度增强的抑制作用最明显。在TC快速增强阈值为40 KT的初始时刻,将200~850 hPa垂直风切变划分为东风切变和西风切变的统计表明,57%的TC在东风切变的环境下可以快速增强。     

甘肃春季沙尘暴环流特征及其时间尺度诊断分析

根据43a甘肃春季沙尘暴日数距平序列选取了甘肃春季沙尘暴多发年和少发年。对甘肃春季沙尘暴多发年和少发年前期冬季(12月至翌年2月)和同期春季(3~5月)500hPa环流距平场合成结果表明, 前期冬季东亚大槽、同期春季蒙古气旋是影响沙尘暴发生多少的主要系统。西风指数和东亚北风指数计算结果表明, 沙尘暴多发年与少发年指数差异明显, 沙尘暴与冬季风联系紧密。甘肃春季沙尘暴小波变换分析, 清楚地反映沙尘暴不同频域的变化特征及其交替作用; 不同频域小波系数变化说明21世纪初沙尘暴将趋于增加。     

The spatial distribution of tornadoes and high wind impacts associated with inland-moving tropical cyclones in the southeastern United States

The southeastern United States is routinely hit by tropical cyclones (TC). As TC track inland and dissipate their inland impacts can be substantial. This study examined the spatial patterns of societal impacts associated with tornadoes and high winds with 31 inland-moving TC that made landfall from 1985 to 2008. Hourly weather information was collected from all available first-order weather stations affected by each storm, as well as tropical cyclone preliminary reports issued from the National Hurricane Center. Societal impacts were identified through selected newspapers across the region and the National Climatic Data Center’s Storm Data. Geographic Information System (GIS) software was employed to make geometric measurements of the distance and direction of the impacts relative to storm center. From these measurements, the spatial distribution of the societal and meteorological impacts was plotted relative to the track (e.g., left vs. right) and location (forward vs. rear sector) of the cyclone center. Various tropical cyclone attributes, including size, strength, and forward speed of movement were then related to the occurrence of different impacts and their location relative to the cyclone track. The majority of tropical cyclone tornado and high wind impacts occur in the right-forward sector of the tropical cyclone. However, many TC produce impacts that occur in other sectors far from the center of circulation. These abnormalities are associated in many cases with interactions between the tropical cyclone circulation, topography, peripheral dry air, and extratropical synoptic weather features.     

Relative vulnerability of the forests along southeastern African coasts to cyclones

The forests of southeastern Africa are vulnerable to damage imposed by tropical cyclones operating in the South Indian Ocean. We undertook a geographical analysis to determine the relative vulnerability of forests given tropical cyclones recorded during the 1959–2008 storm seasons. From this analysis, eastern coastal forests of Madagascar seem to be the most vulnerable, although return intervals for severe storms vary along the eastern coast, and are shorter (about 10 years) through the central portion of the country. Therefore, the central lowland to upper montane rainforests on the eastern coast seem to be more vulnerable to damage from tropical cyclones than others in the area. While not as extensive, western coastal forests of Madagascar are also as vulnerable in part due to the recurvature of storms in the Mozambique Channel. Though the coastal forests of Mozambique are all nearly equal in terms of vulnerability, the return interval for severe storms to this area is highly variable. The inland Miombo forests of southeast Africa are less vulnerable to damage from tropical cyclones; however, portions of western Mozambique and Zimbabwe have experienced strong tropical storms in the last 50 years. A number of caveats and limitations associated with the data and analyses are noted. Given the broad scale of the study, the relative vulnerability and the return intervals for severe storms should be considered general representations of these phenomena for the southeastern African coast and the island of Madagascar.     

向极跨越70°N气旋的主要特征分析

北极地区以南生成并向北移动进入极区的气旋,在移动发展过程中常伴随大风、降水和升温等过程,对中低纬度地区物质和热量向极地输送起着重要作用,并对极区大气、海洋和海冰的变化产生一定影响。基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)发布的1979—2015年的海平面气压再分析数据产品,利用气旋自动识别和追踪算法,开展气旋的识别和追踪,获得向极跨越70°N气旋的数量、强度、活动轨迹及北向运动纬距等主要特征如下:该类气旋在数量上,春、冬季多于夏、秋季,年总数量和春、秋、冬季均呈减少趋势;强气旋易发于冬季,弱气旋多发于夏季;该类气旋活动轨迹,冬季集中分布在海上,夏季在陆地上;该类气旋北向运动纬距整体平均为9.2°,冬季平均最大,为10.2°,夏季平均最小,为7.3°;在年际变化上,年平均和春、冬季平均呈增长趋势,夏、秋季平均呈减少趋势;在年代际变化上,年平均和夏、冬季平均从1979—1988年到1989—1998年阶段都是减小的,到1999—2008年阶段是增大的,其后再减小,春、秋季则无明显趋势变化。     

Impacts of particulate matter on Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclones

This research analyzes the relationship between tropical cyclones and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) for landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones from 2000 to 2015. Daily mean PM₂.₅ concentrations were collected from the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Tropical cyclone data were acquired from Tropical Prediction Center Best Track Reanalysis in Unisys weather. GRIdded Binary (GRIB formatted) data were downloaded from the Data Support Section of the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Tracks of tropical cyclones were overlaid with the interpolated daily mean PM₂.₅ concentration value. Results suggest that, in general, tracks are distant from areas with the largest PM₂.₅ concentrations. To examine the cause-effect nature of this relationship, simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model suggests that the intensity of Hurricane Lili was weakened only after passing the most PM₂.₅-polluted area in Louisiana. This result suggests that aerosol loading may weaken the intensity of tropical cyclones, at least in some cases.     

Analysing the positional accuracy of GNSS multi-tracks obtained from VGI sources to generate improved 3D mean axes

ABSTRACT

The sharing of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) tracks on the Internet is increasing enormously. Every day a great number of users capture routes using different devices and share these data. Individually these tracks present a poor positional accuracy because these devices obtain positions with accuracy of about 5-10 metres. In addition, they are usually captured for navigation and not for surveying. However, we can take advantage of the great quantity of tracks of the same linear element in order to obtain a more accurate solution. This study analyses this possibility using a wide set of tracks obtained in known conditions. We emulated those tracks obtained by Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) users and we compared the mean axis obtained using all tracks with others obtained from a more accurate source. Additionally, we analyse the displacement of other axes obtained by varying several parameters such as the number of tracks and their length or by dividing the route into sections in function of sinuosity, etc. The results have shown an improved 3D mean axis and the viability of the method proposed in this study in order to use axes obtained from several tracks in maps at certain scales.     

The structure and behavior of the arctic cyclone in summer analyzed by the JRA-25/JCDAS data

In this study, three-dimensional structures and the life-time behavior of arctic cyclones are investigated as case studies, using reanalysis data of JRA-25 and JCDAS. In recent years, arctic region has undergone drastic warming in conjunction with the reduced sea ice concentration in summer. The rapid reduction of the sea ice concentration is explained, to some extent, by a pressure dipole of the arctic cyclone and Beaufort high over the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents some case studies for the structure of the arctic cyclone.It is found by the analysis of this study that the arctic cyclone indicates many differences in structure and behavior compared with the mid-latitude cyclone. The arctic cyclones move rather randomly in direction over the Arctic Ocean. The arctic cyclone has a barotropic structure in the vertical from the surface to the stratosphere. The arctic cyclone detected at the sea level pressure is connected with the polar vortex at the 500 hPa level and above. Importantly, the arctic cyclone has a cold core in the troposphere and a warm core around the 200 hPa level. The mechanism of the formation is discussed based on the analyzed structure of the arctic cyclones.     

The Role of Mid-Latitude Pacific Cyclones in the Winter Precipitation of California*

The characteristics of the mid-latitude Pacific cyclones that produce precipitation over California are investigated statistically to determine their role in governing precipitation receipt. From all cyclones occurring over the Pacific Ocean from December through March and between 1965–1990 inclusive, we identify a subset of cyclones likely to produce precipitation over California. The characteristics analyzed are track, frequency, duration, speed, central pressure, and proximity. These are related to monthly precipitation for the entire period and are also used to explain the difference in precipitation received during the earlier (wet) and latter (dry) halves of the 1980s. Results indicate that the winter cyclones responsible for precipitation over California originate in the southeast quadrant of the region influenced by the Aleutian Low and decay south of the Gulf of Alaska. The extent of cyclonic activity over the east Pacific Ocean near California diminished during the dry period. There were fewer cyclones, they were significantly weaker, and they traveled along a more meridional track during the dry period.     

Holocene Dynamics of the East-Asian Monsoon in the Lower Amur Area

The spatial and temporal dynamics of monsoon in the Holocene has been reconstructed for the Lower Amur area. Four stages of cooling are determined (10300–10800, 8000–8300, 4200–4600 and 2500 yrs. ago). During these periods the intensity of the summer monsoon was weakest. The conventional northern boundary of monsoon influence moved from 54 to 48o N. Two retrospective scenarios of the interaction versions of interaction of seasonal atmospheric centers are suggested, which had influence on the dynamics of the cyclone process over the southern part of the Far East in the Holocene. The cyclones attenuated as a result of frequently recurring long-lasting periods of an increase in pressure in the region of the summer Far-Eastern and Asian depressions, and a decrease in pressure over the Sea of Okhotsk as well as the displacement of the center of the Okhotsk anticyclone toward southern latitudes, which was often in a quasi-stationary state blocking the passage of cyclones to the southern coast of the Sea of Okhotsk. In either case, the cyclones were forced away to lower latitudes and intensified over northern and eastern regions of China. The two scenarios could work both synchronously and metachronously.     

Historical Dune Pattern Dynamics: White Sands Dune Field,New Mexico

Research efforts studying dune fields as spatial units are limited and the historical dynamics associated with dune field-scale pattern attributes are currently not well documented. Historical repeat aerial photography was used to quantify temporal changes in the crescentic dune pattern at the White Sands Dune Field, New Mexico. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to digitize ~ 14,000 dune crests from the combined photoset. Crest length, sinuosity, spacing, orientation, transport vector, and defect density were calculated from these measurements and statistically analyzed. The pattern analysis revealed that crest length, sinuosity, and defect density were highly variable pattern elements over a 60-year period. These dune pattern elements also exhibited temporal relationships, such as the inverse relationship between crest length and sinuosity over time. Defect density calculations revealed that the dune field is trending to a possible state of disorganization. This trend was temporarily interrupted in 1985 by a massive period of organization in which crest length was inversely related to defect density and defect density was proportionally related to sinuosity. The temporal variations in these pattern elements and the episodic organizational event in 1985 were likely climatically induced.     

DISTRIBUTIONS AND HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINSTORMS AND FLOODS IN CHINA

I.horoductionPleNorthwestPacificOceanisti1elnostfrequentlyaffeCtedareaoftropicalcyclone(TC).AboLIt36percentTCoftheworldoccurinffosarea[2],andthenumberofTCWhichlandedonChinawiti1n1akimumwindforcescalesoverlOisabout35percentofti1atintheeastemcoastalcoLUitriesofAsia[l].BothrainstormsandfloodsMide,theidriuenceofTCareheaVyinChina,suchastherainfalldePthof2749mm/3datXinliao,Taiwanandpeakdischargeof44,6oOm'/satHuanggo(55,42okn'),YalujiangRjver.Therefore,TCisanimportantfaCtorforflooddisas…     

Transboundary transport of acid precipitation by cyclones of East Asia to the South of the Russian Far East

Results from analyzing the cyclone paths over East Asia for the period 1997–2009 and the variability in chemical composition of atmospheric precipitation in Primorskii Krai are discussed. It is shown that southwesterly cyclones over Primorskii Krai became more frequent during the time period under consideration. The increase in the number of cyclones forming in the polluted atmosphere of urbanized areas in North-Eastern Asia led to an increase in acid deposition, which is confirmed by data from the international acid deposition monitoring stations of the international EANET network.     

THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SNOW COVER AND CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

Snow cover extent is correlated with the latitude, pressure, and frequency of cyclones at every five degrees of longitude from 70° to 100° West, for the winter seasons 1971 to 1980. Each cyclone parameter is also lag correlated with snow cover extent to test relationships between snow cover extent of one week and cyclone variables of successive weeks. More extensive snow cover is related to cyclones traveling farther south, having higher central pressure, and becoming less frequent.     

An Investigation of the Influence of Cyclonic Airstreams on Midwestern Snowfall

Although previous climatological studies have investigated the relationship between cyclone frequency and trajectory and regional weather, analyses of structural airflow features and precipitation have been confined to meteorological case studies. In the following paper, the influence of Colorado cyclone airstreams on Midwestern snowfall is investigated using isentropic streamline maps for five cold season months. Results indicate that Colorado cyclones account for a minor percentage of Midwestern snowfall events and amounts. When snowfall is induced by Colorado cyclogenesis, diffluence and instability in the cold sector portions of the cyclone are the dominant lifting mechanisms.