Land-cover and land-use change in a Mediterranean landscape: A spatial analysis of driving forces integrating biophysical and human factors

This article develops a spatial analysis applied to examine the main driving forces of land-cover and land-use (LCLU) change in a Mediterranean region. Three different tools have been used in order to differentiate LCLU changes, driving forces and landscape dynamics. LCLU changes have been quantified with remote sensing techniques, driving forces have been analysed with multiple logistic regressions combining biophysical and human variables, whereas landscape dynamics have been quantified using different metrics. Results show the intensification of subsidised herbaceous crops on the coastal agricultural plain, the abandonment of olive trees and vineyards in the transitional area and forest restoration in the mountainous subregion.     

Optimal rural land use allocation in central China: Linking the effect of spatiotemporal patterns and policy interventions

Rural land use development is experiencing a transition stage of socioeconomic and land use development in China. Historic land use transition process and policy interventions have key influence on the applicability of land use allocation solutions in future land use management. Strategic land use allocation is therefore required to possess a good adjustment capability to the transition process. Although heuristic optimization methods have been promising to solve land use allocation problems, most of them ignored the spatially explicit effect of historic land use transition and policies. To help resolve this issue, this study aims to optimize future land use pattern in the context of rural land use development. We took Yunmeng County, one of the typical major grain producing and rapidly urbanizing areas in central China, as a case study and solved the sustainable land use allocation problem by using an improved heuristic optimization model. The model was constructed based on the integration of a spatial discrete particle swarm optimization and cellular automata-Markov simulation approach. The spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions were represented by the CA-Markov as in spatially explicit transition rules, and then incorporated into the discrete PSO for optimal land use solutions. We examined the influence of the joint effect of spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions on the land use allocation outcome. Our results demonstrate the robustness and potential of the proposed model, and, more importantly, indicate the significance of incorporating the spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions into rural land use allocation.     

Transhumance as a driving force of landscape change in the marginal grabens of northern Ethiopia

Transhumance between the Afar lowlands and Tigray escarpments has been a common practice in northern Ethiopia. However, the impact of transhumance on landscape changes in the marginal grabens has not been significantly researched. Hence, this study aims to understand the process of transhumance and the linkages between social and biophysical aspects of the graben landscapes of northern Ethiopia. Google Earth (2010?2016) and Landsat Imageries (1995?2015) were used to analyse the spatio‐temporal landscape changes. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was applied to measure the change in vegetation cover. Interview and Focus Group Discussions were used to collect perceptions of communities on transhumance and landscape change. The findings reveal that transhumance caused conflicts between the lowlanders and highlanders, which in turn led to displacement of communities. Consequently, the NDVI value of the abandoned settlement increased over time. Conversely, the analysis of Google Earth Imageries and NDVI values show that vegetation cover of the new settlement has decreased. Moreover, the NDVI values of the transhumance areas showed little increase due to the establishments of exclosures in the escarpments. The findings of this study can, therefore, be used to develop targeted interventions aimed at solving transhumance‐induced conflicts, displacement of communities and conservation of natural resources.     

Developing a workable model of housing need: Applying geographical concepts and techniques to a problem of public policy

Governments increasingly seek to target public sector welfare expenditures to those most in need. In Australia, attention has increasingly focussed on the question of housing need: its conceptualisation, measurement, application to policy and expression across space. This paper reports on work undertaken by geographers for the Government of South Australia on the development of a workable model of housing need as a means of establishing priorities for public sector expenditure. The paper considers the problem of housing need and the challenges of developing and applying the multi-faceted concepts embedded within the notion of ‘need’.     

An interdisciplinary approach to depict landscape change drivers: A case study of the Ticuiz agrarian community in Michoacan, Mexico

Landscape changes are driven by a combination of physical, ecological and socio-cultural factors. Hence, a large amount of information is necessary to monitor these changes and to develop effective strategies for management and conservation. For this, novel strategies for combining social and environmental data need to be developed. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the value of an innovative interdisciplinary approach to help in explaining landscape change. We integrated three main sources of information: biophysical landscape attributes, land-use/cover change analysis and social perceptions of land-use change, institutional and policy factors and environmental services. Multivariate statistical analysis was used to develop a weight for each variable described or quantified. Finally we identified proximate causes and underlying driving forces of land transformation in the study area. The study was undertaken in a typical community in Mexico.     

Exploring a combination of objective and subjective assessment in landscape classification: Side case from Turkey

Landscape is a product of interactions between human and nature that bring multiple characteristics to discrete geographic settings. Landscape character assessment (LCA) is a process of describing, mapping and evaluating distinct characters in the landscape. The aim of this study is to integrate objective and subjective assessment in landscape classification in the case of Side district in Antalya, Turkey. The methodology of the study is based on a holistic approach to combine map-based biophysical information and on-site visual landscape characteristics into the LCA process. Principal component and cluster analysis were used to understand relationships and spatial patterns between 29 landscape character areas and types which were previously defined by previous work. The main source of data was landscape characters, and 35 character attributes was processed as variables. Cluster analysis showed that landscape character areas and types in Side were gathered into two main cluster groups and five sub clusters. The majority of landscape character areas tended to constitute separate subclusters, while character types appeared to form large groups of clusters in which recognisable land-use patterns were the main activity. According to the cluster dendrogram, it was possible to interpret spatial linkages between the clusters of character areas and types and to delineate geographic classification of the main landscapes in Side. Scaling relations for LCA in a pattern-process-product framework provided an explicit understanding of the data layers in landscape classification and where the clustering can function. Biophysical characteristics comprised the pattern of the landscape, while visual characteristics demonstrated the condition of the landscape as a product. The process depends upon transformation between the objective and the subjective as a link between pattern and product. Further steps would be to conduct semistructured surveys to assess local perceptions and preferences about landscape characters for landscape quality objectives.     

Possibilities of land use change analysis in a mountainous rural area: a methodological approach

Decreasing population density is a current trend in the European Union, and causes a lower environmental impact on the landscape. However, besides the desirable effect on the regeneration processes of semi-natural forest ecosystems, the lack of traditional management techniques can also lead to detrimental ecological processes. In this study we investigated the land use pattern changes in a micro-region (in North-Eastern Hungary) between 1952 and 2005, based on vectorised land use data from archive aerial photos. We also evaluated the methodology of comparisons using GIS methods, fuzzy sets and landscape metrics. We found that both GIS methods and statistical analysis of landscape metrics resulted in more or less the same findings. Differences were not as relevant as was expected considering the general tendencies of the past 60 years in Hungary. The change in the annual rate of forest recovery was 0.12%; settlements extended their area by an annual rate of 3.04%, while grasslands and arable lands had a net loss in their area within the studied period (0.60% and 0.89%, respectively). The kappa index showed a smaller similarity (~60%) between these dates but the fuzzy kappa and the aggregation index, taking into account both spatial and thematic errors, gave a more reliable result (~70–80% similarity). Landscape metrics on patch and class level ensured the possibility of a detailed analysis. We arrived at a similar outcome but were able to verify all the calculations through statistical tests. With this approach we were able to reveal significant (p < 0.05) changes; however, effect sizes did not show large magnitudes. Comparing the methods of revealing landscape change, the approach of landscape metrics was the most effective approach, as it was independent of spatial errors and ensuring a multiple way of interpretation.     

Sustainable environmental resource utilisation: a case study of farmers’ ethnobotanical knowledge and rural change in Bungoma district, Kenya

This paper examines farmers’ ethnobotanical knowledge, innovation and rural change, and indicates one way in which indigenous technical knowledge complementing scientific knowledge may be documented for use by development planners and agencies. This paper firstly identifies plant species recognised as resources by farmers, and considers the value of these resources. Secondly, the paper documents and assesses the ethnobotanical knowledge associated with the utilisation of plant species, before turning to examine how plant resources are defined by use and culture. It also demonstrates that some components of ethnobotanical knowledge have potential for the sustainable development of plant species. The study shows that farmers have started to domesticate some of the ‘traditional’ plants, and new crops have been introduced associated with corresponding innovations in local agricultural systems. Since the farmers have a relatively strong tradition in natural resources conservation, this study suggests that it will be possible to introduce community-based gene banks linked to formal or government facilities. The paper demonstrates that it is important to combine and interweave ‘modern’ and indigenous knowledges to produce a more realistic and sensitive understanding and management of natural environmental resources for sustainable development.     

Land-cover change and human–environment interactions in a rural cultural landscape in South Africa

This paper presents an historical analysis (1974–97) of associations between land-cover change and socio-economic factors for three villages in a former bantustan region of South Africa. The notion of social–ecological systems is used as the conceptual framework for this analysis, in which the former bantustan region of Bushbuckridge is posited as a cultural landscape. The local landscape showed distinctive modifications over the study period, broad trends including the growth of human settlements and the decrease in woodland cover. However, changes were not uniform across sites, and the direction and magnitude of changes in land cover were often nonlinear and site-specific. Analysis of associations between biophysical and socio-economic changes at different scales revealed a range of important interacting forces such as population growth, drought, shortages of land, grazing and wood resources, weakening institutional governance of natural resources, and the diversification of livelihood strategies, including the sale of fuelwood, concurrent with declining employment security and cattle ownership. Evidence suggests a possible erosion of resilience in these social–ecological systems at various scales, with important implications for socio-economic development and sustainable resource management.     

The farmer as a landscape manager: Management roles and change patterns in a Danish region

Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 111(2):107–116, 2011

Rural landscapes are mainly maintained and changed through farmers' decisions and practices. As a landscape manager the farmer has many different roles of which three roles related to the farm as a whole is investigated in this paper: producer, owner and citizen. Although most farmers take landscape decisions in all these three roles production based decisions are assumed to be more important for full time farmers than for hobby farmers who have their main income outside the farm and who may consider their farm more as a living place than as a production place. Based on a large survey carried out in Hvorslev, Eastern Jutland, Denmark in 2008 farmers' landscape practices are analysed in relation to their background, occupational status and view of their farms as a production place versus a living place. Altogether 377 farmers were interviewed and some comparisons are made to a similar survey in the same area in 1996. It was found that a significant proportion of farmers are hobby farmers who mainly see the farm as a living place and who to a large degree have different landscape practices than full time farmers have. The findings indicate that more research is needed to fully understand the reasons for and implications of the differences in landscape management practices.     

The response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change in four areas of Europe: The importance of landscape pattern

The response of erosion and sediment export to past land-use change has been studied in four agricultural areas of Europe. Three of these areas were subject to land abandonment or de-intensification and one to intensification of land-use practices. Erosion and sediment yield were modeled using the WaTEM/SEDEM model, which combines the RUSLE equation with a sediment routing algorithm. Spatial relationships between the RUSLE C-factor (i.e. land-use) and other erosion and sediment export-determining factors (slope, soil erodibility and distance to rivers) were investigated, as these account for non-linearity in the response of erosion and sediment export to land-use change.Erosion and sediment export have decreased enormously in the de-intensified areas, but slightly increased in the intensively cultivated area. The spatial pattern of land-use change in relation to other erosion and sediment export-determining factors appears to have a large impact on the response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change. That the drivers of abandonment of arable land and erosion coincide indicates that de-intensification leads to a more favourable landscape pattern with respect to reduction of erosion and sediment export. This mechanism applies not only within the study areas, but also among the European study areas where the process of intensification of some areas and de-intensification of others might result in an overall decrease of erosion and sediment yield through time.     

The application of remote sensing techniques to landscape level environmental research: A hybrid approach combining visual and digital interpretation

The development of new technology for use in environmental research provides us with numerous sophisticated tools such as remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). However, throughout recent decades there have been debates regarding the appropriate use of these tools. The question still remains as to whether they can strengthen environmental research, or whether perhaps more conventional methods are better suited? This paper focuses on the use of remote sensing in environmental applications, such as strategic or regional environmental assessments. By providing a case study from Sri Lanka, it is shown how the benefits from a visual interpretation of satellite imagery can be combined with a digital supervised classification in a hybrid approach. The use of these techniques in environmental assessments is further discussed in the light of 'best practicable science' as proposed by the International Association of Impact Assessment (IAIA). The intention is not to discourage the use of digital techniques, but to discuss how they should be utilized to their fullest extent. The approach argued for here provides data of a more general and possibly integrative nature. It may therefore be well suited for the early screening and scoping stages of environmental assessments at a landscape level.     

Monitoring socio-environmental change for sustainable development: Developing a Multidimensional Livelihoods Index (MLI)

To enable more effective monitoring of sustainable development for meeting targets of the post-2015 agenda, assessment is required at the sub-national level to better understand the spatial variation in factors which contribute to sustaining livelihoods. In this research we take Nepal as a case study; a nation consistently ranked as one of the poorest in the world. To understand how sustainable development can effectively promote livelihood diversification, we advocate that a multidimensional spatial approach is essential for monitoring social and environmental change to aid decision-making processes. To achieve this, a multidimensional index was created to spatially explore the landscape of livelihoods across rural Nepal. A methodology was developed to quantify the livelihoods asset pentagon (human-physical-social-financial-natural) of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. 23 socio-environmental indicators were selected to map the multidimensionality of livelihoods at the eco-development area unit level and produce the Multidimensional Livelihoods Index (MLI). Results indicate considerable spatial variability in the factors affecting people's livelihoods across Nepal. In general, the MLI decreases as you move north and east, reflecting changes in the topographic landscape and distance from the Kathmandu Valley Outcomes suggest an effective method for monitoring change at a sub-national level; highlighting potential locations and/or livelihood strategies for improving the targeting of resources (e.g. investment of foreign aid) to facilitate more sustainable development for the future.     

Assessment of land degradation in Mediterranean forests and grazing lands using a landscape unit approach and the normalized difference vegetation index

Land managers need sound, evidence-based information about land degradation patterns and about the effectiveness of their management responses. Obtaining such information is particularly difficult in Mediterranean grazing lands and forests, where a long history of anthropogenic pressure, high topographical and climatic variability, and frequent disturbances combine to create a highly diverse and unstable environment.Our study aimed at designing a methodology to provide land managers in three data-scarce drylands in Spain, Greece, and Cyprus with spatially explicit, up-to-date information on the state of their land, the pressures driving land degradation, and the effectiveness of their management efforts using remotely sensed NDVI data. To translate NDVI values into a land degradation assessment, we analysed the variance of the annual average NDVI within different landscape units, which we identified based on land cover, aspect, and slope steepness parameters. After calibrating and validating the land degradation mapping methodology using field observations, we related the obtained land degradation patterns with spatial information about grazing and wildfire, as well as controlled grazing and afforestation practices.Our methodology proved useful to assess land degradation and management measures in dry, semi-natural ecosystems. It also provided insights into the role of landscape in modulating land degradation. Results indicate that grazing is a significant cause of land degradation even in partially abandoned areas; repeated fires have a negative impact; slope steepness increases the land's sensitivity to grazing; north- and east-facing slopes are less sensitive to fire in the long term than south- and west-facing slopes; and the effectiveness of responses to land degradation is substantially affected by land cover and topography.The methodology presented can be used to overcome the lack of spatially explicit information on the state of the land in drylands of the Mediterranean and beyond, or as a basis for more in-depth studies to plan restoration interventions.     

Residential solid fuel use: Modelling the impacts and policy implications of natural resource access,temperature, income,gas infrastructure and government regulation

Reducing solid fuel use for home heating can reduce both carbon emissions and air pollution within residential areas and thereby provide for improved environmental and health outcomes. The general models used to identify the determinants of solid fuel use often focus upon socioeconomic factors. Utilising an extended spatial econometric approach our results show proximity to a solid fuel resource as the most significant factor. Other spatially evaluated attributes, such as temperature, legislated solid-fuel sale restrictions and gas network coverage, are also found to have significant impacts on solid fuel use choices. Clear spatial dependence patterns are found for the effects of these attributes, with further evidence of large spill-over effects for neighbouring areas in the case of proximity to either a peat bog or an area subject to a ban on the sale of smoky coal. The research engages a blend of GIS and spatial econometric analysis to generate maps for both a fuel poverty risk and a resistance to fuel change index. These outcomes can serve to inform the design and deployment of effective and equitable solid-fuel and environmental policy interventions. Suggested policy interventions include conservation of peat bogs, expansion of smoky coal ban areas and the development of gas network coverage to specific areas. In addition to the policy support outcomes, the paper offers technical and methodological innovations in relation to combining spatial attributes with econometric models, handling large spatial matrices, understanding direct and indirect effects, and visibly presenting estimated values with spatial dependence.     

Measuring spatial accessibility to primary care in rural areas: Improving the effectiveness of the two-step floating catchment area method

Quantifying spatial accessibility in relation to the provision of rural health services has proven difficult. This article critically appraises the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method, a recent solution for measuring primary care service accessibility across rural areas of Victoria, Australia. The 2SFCA method is demonstrated to have two fundamental shortcomings – specifically the use of only one catchment size for all populations, and secondly the assumption that proximity is undifferentiated within a catchment (especially problematic when the catchment is large). Despite its advantages over simple population-to-provider ratios, the 2SFCA method needs to be used with caution.     

Evaluation of forest cover change using remote sensing techniques and landscape metrics in Moncayo Natural Park (Spain)

Monitoring the change in land cover in natural places, such as ecotones, has become an important tool for forest management, especially in protected areas. The present work analyses the spatial and temporal changes in forest cover in Moncayo Natural Park (Spain) from 1987 to 2010 using remote sensing techniques, geographical information systems (GIS) and quantitative indices of landscape ecology. Four Landsat images were used to map nine representative land cover categories in this preserved area in both years. The overall classification accuracies in land cover cartographies in 1987 and 2010 were 87.65% and 84.56%, respectively. Landscape metrics obtained at the landscape level show an increase in fragmentation and, as a result, an increase in landscape spatial diversity. Focusing on the class level, the results show a forest expansion of sessile oaks (Quercus petraea) and beech forest (Fagus sylvatica), two important bioclimatic indicators in this natural park, because they are the southernmost locations for these species in Europe. The decrease of mainly introduced pine forest and the transformation of mixed shrub areas into natural forested areas explain the aforementioned increase in fragmentation. These results are in agreement with the strategies for nature conservation designed by forest managers during the period evaluated.     

Ledgers and landscapes: Indicators of rural landscape change in southern New Zealand, 1878–1919

Our objective was to develop and calibrate numerical measures to represent the timing and magnitude of landscape change between 1878, and 1919 using information in a stock and station agency's ledgers. Relative expenditures on fencing materials peaked in the 1880s, were lowest in the early 1900s, and rose to one‐fifth of annual expenditures from 1914 onwards. In contrast, relative expenditures on soil preparation, cropping and harvesting grew steadily after 1879, peaked in 1900, and declined from then until 1919. This research found that periods of intensive landscape investment between 1878 and 1919 were separated by longer intervals of landscape maintenance.     

Wine trails as organizational pathway toward landscape coherence: the case of the Finger Lakes region,New York,USA

This paper explores the role of so-called wine trails as planners and managers of viticultural landscapes, using the case of the Finger Lakes region in New York, USA. Using key informant interviews, it assesses the current capacity and the future potential of these non-governmental, fee-based ‘clubs’ to mediate between global markets and the local agricultural landscape in the absence of policy frameworks designed for this purpose. Though it finds little evidence of such mediation today, the paper argues that the structure and institutional position of wine trails, organizations whose members’ livelihoods depend substantially on long-term landscape coherence, position them to play a more assertive role in doing so in the future, particularly in places marked by lax planning regimes and scarce resources.     

乡村振兴村庄类型识别与振兴策略研究——以山西省长子县为例

乡村振兴战略是新时代破解“三农”问题、实现农业农村现代化的重大战略部署。坚持乡村差异性与发展分化原则,科学识别乡村类型、明晰乡村振兴导向,对于编制区域乡村振兴规划与分类施策具有重要的现实意义。村域尺度是乡村振兴战略的基本尺度,但囿于微观尺度统计数据与基础资料的缺乏,亟需构建一套科学合理、简便易行的乡村类型识别方法体系。论文简要解析了影响村庄分布、演进与发展潜力的关键因素,据此构建乡村振兴村庄类型识别指标体系,并按照“自然因素→振兴潜力→发展现状→资源基础”的逻辑思路逐级识别乡村主导类型。结果表明：① 自然因子限制了村落的基本格局与演变方向,经济区位决定了村落的发展潜力与转型能力,二者在村落演进与乡村振兴中起到决定性作用;② 从农户视角看,村落的空间区位效能是否适应农户生产生活需求和生计方式,决定了农户居住场所是否发生空间迁移,并通过闲置废弃宅基地得到呈现;③ 将长子县村庄识别为城郊融合型、集聚提升型、传统农业型、特色保护型、搬迁撤并型5类,结合不同的乡村振兴模式提出相应的发展导向与振兴策略,以期为乡村振兴分类施策提供决策参考。