道路交通节能减排途径与潜力分析

交通运输行业是仅次于制造业的第二大油品消耗行业,也是实现低碳生活发展路径的重点行业。基于交通运输部门碳排放量现状分析,本文提出了优先发展公共交通、鼓励发展小排量汽车、降低机动车单耗、控制排放物标准等四种挖潜减排途径,并利用排放量估算和情景分析相结合的方法,对我国道路交通减排潜力进行了预测。按照高中低度三种减排情景发展,测算出2015年及2020年减排量,为实现至2020年我国碳排放较2005年下降40%~45%的目标提供科学基础。研究认为:2010-2020年是中国交通运输行业高速发展阶段,要满足能源安全和温室气体减排要求,我国需要实施更严格的产业和环境政策,若强化低碳情景模式,则2015年、2020年的碳排减少量分别约为2183万t、7148万t,达到我国道路交通部门的最大减排潜力。     

Continuous measurement of CO2 flux through the snowpack in a dwarf bamboo ecosystem on Rishiri Island,Hokkaido, Japan

To investigate the dynamics and environmental drivers of CO₂ flux through the winter snowpack in a dwarf bamboo ecosystem (Hokkaido, northeast Japan), we constructed an automated sampling system to measured CO₂ concentrations at five different levels in the snowpack, from the base to the upper snow surface. Using a gas diffusion approach, we estimated an average apparent soil CO₂ flux of 0.26 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ during the snow season (December–April); temporally, the CO₂ flux increased until mid-snow season, but showed no clear trend thereafter; late-season snow-melting events resulted in rapid decreases in apparent CO₂ flux values. Air temperature and subnivean CO₂ flux exhibited a positive linear relationship. After eliminating the effects of wind pumping, we estimated the actual soil CO₂ flux (0.41 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) to be 54% larger than the apparent flux. This study provides new constraints on snow-season carbon emissions in a dwarf bamboo ecosystem in northeast Asia.     

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors of conventional energy carbon emissions in Kazakhstan based on LMDI decomposition and STIRPAT model

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO₂ emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI method and a modified STIRPAT model to research the conventional energy-related CO₂ emissions in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results show that the trajectory of CO₂ emissions displayed U-shaped curve from 1992 to 2013. Based on the extended Kaya identity and additive LMDI method, we decomposed total CO₂ emissions into four influencing factors. Of those, the economic active effect is the most influential factor driving CO₂ emissions, which produced 110.86 Mt CO₂ emissions, with a contribution rate of 43.92%. The second driving factor is the population effect, which led to 11.87 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of 4.7%. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect is the most inhibiting factor, which caused–110.90 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–43.94%, followed by the energy carbon structure effect resulting in–18.76 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–7.43%. In order to provide an in-depth examination of the change response between energy-related CO₂ emissions and each impact factor, we construct a modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation. The results indicate that for every 1% increase in population size, economic activity, energy intensity and energy carbon structure, there is a subsequent increase in CO₂ emissions of 3.13%, 0.41%, 0.30% and 0.63%, respectively.     

Potential for Coal-to-Liquids Conversion in the United States—Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis

The United States has the world’s largest coal reserves and Montana the highest potential for mega-mine development. Consequently, a large-scale effort to convert coal to liquids (CTL) has been proposed to create a major source of domestic transportation fuels from coal, and some prominent Montanans want to be at the center of that effort. We calculate that the energy efficiency of the best existing Fischer–Tropsch (FT) process applied to average coal in Montana is less than 1/2 of the corresponding efficiency of an average crude oil refining process. The resulting CO₂ emissions are 20 times (2000%) higher for CTL than for conventional petroleum products. One barrel of the FT fuel requires roughly 800 kg of coal and 800 kg of water. The minimum energy cost of subsurface CO₂ sequestration would be at least 40% of the FT fuel energy, essentially halving energy efficiency of the process. We argue therefore that CTL conversion is not the most valuable use for the coal, nor will it ever be, as long as it is economical to use natural gas for electric power generation. This finding results from the low efficiency inherent in FT synthesis, and is independent of the monumental FT plant construction costs, mine construction costs, acute lack of water, and the associated environmental impacts for Montana.

Neighborhood-scale urban form,travel behavior,and CO2 emissions in Beijing: implications for low-carbon urban planning

With an increasing awareness of global climate change, the effect of urban spatial organization, at both city and neighborhood scales, on urban CO₂ emission reduction has attracted much scholarly and practical attention. Using Beijing as a case study, this article examines the extent to which neighborhood-scale urban form may contribute to reduction of travel-related CO₂ emissions in the context of rapid urbanization and spatial transformation. We derive complete travel-activity records of 1,048 residents from an activity diary survey conducted in 2007. Analysis using structural equation models finds that residents living in a neighborhood with higher land use mix, public transit accessibility, and more pedestrian-friendly street design tend to travel in a “low-carbon” manner and emit less CO₂ in daily travel, even controlling for residential and travel preferences. This article offers empirical evidence that sheds light on debates about policy measures to facilitate China’s transition toward sustainable and low-carbon urban development.     

Do suburban residents prefer the fastest or low-carbon travel modes? Combining public participation GIS and multimodal travel time analysis for daily mobility research

Sustainability of urban transportation and residents' daily mobility is increasingly important for the future of urban regions. In this paper, we present a novel methodology combining mapped survey responses (gathered using public participation GIS) and sophisticated multimodal routing analysis to understand patterns of suburban residents' daily mobility. Our particular focus is on residents' mode choices and their optimality in terms of travel time. We also examine the carbon-intensity of potential mode choice mismatches where a comparatively slower travel mode is chosen for a particular trip. This paper shows how the combination of the two data sources create new possibilities for analysing daily mobility by enabling the comparison of self-reported, geographically referenced mobility patterns and modelled, objectively “optimal” patterns. Our case study results from a rapidly growing metropolitan area, Greater Helsinki in Finland, indicate that people have rather sustainable daily mobility practices. Their daily trips are typically short (median 1.8 km), and non-motorised travel modes are the most popular. Also the share of car travel is significant. While public transport clearly has the lowest modal share, it is frequently used on longer trips to destinations where public transport connections are good (particularly the city centre). In 44% of trips, the respondents choose the fastest travel mode. When a comparatively slower travel mode is chosen, it most often produces less CO₂ emissions than the fastest mode. However, particularly on shopping trips – the most commonly reported type of trip – car driving dominates as the fastest means of transportation. When a slower mode is chosen on a shopping trip, it is typically more carbon-intensive than the fastest mode would have been in that case. The methodology presented here can be used to support local decision making, particularly when daily services and transport infrastructure are planned or reorganised.     

Column-averaged CO2 concentrations in the subarctic from GOSAT retrievals and NIES transport model simulations

The distribution of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the subarctic was investigated using the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) three-dimensional transport model (TM) and retrievals from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Column-averaged dry air mole fractions of subarctic atmospheric CO₂ (XCO₂) from the NIES TM for four flux combinations were analyzed. Two flux datasets were optimized using only surface observations and two others were optimized using both surface and GOSAT Level 2 data. Two inverse modeling approaches using GOSAT data were compared. In the basic approach adopted in the GOSAT Level 4 product, the GOSAT observations are aggregated into monthly means over 5° × 5° grids. In the alternative method, the model–observation misfit is estimated for each observation separately. The XCO₂ values simulated with optimized fluxes were validated against Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) measurements. Optimized fluxes were applied to study XCO₂ seasonal variability over the period 2009–2010 in the Arctic and subarctic regions. The impact on CO₂ levels of emissions from enhancement of biospheric respiration induced by the high temperature and strong wildfires occurring in the summer of 2010 was analyzed. Use of GOSAT data has a substantial impact on estimates of the level of CO₂ interanual variability.     

Assessment and determinants of per capita household CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions (PHCEs) based on capital city level in China

Household CO₂ emissions were increasing due to rapid economic growth and different household lifestyle. We assessed per capita household CO₂ emissions (PHCEs) based on different household consuming demands (including clothing, food, residence, transportation and service) by using provincial capital city level survey data in China. The results showed that: (1) there was a declining trend moving from eastward to westward as well as moving from northward to southward in the distribution of PHCEs. (2) PHCEs from residence demand were the largest which accounted for 44% of the total. (3) Correlation analysis and spatial analysis (Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Spatial Error Model (SEM)) were used to evaluate the complex determinants of PHCEs. Per capita income (PI) and household size (HS) were analyzed as the key influencing factors. We concluded that PHCEs would increase by 0.2951% and decrease by 0.5114% for every 1% increase in PI and HS, respectively. According to the results, policy-makers should consider household consuming demand, income disparity and household size on the variations of PHCEs. The urgency was to improve technology and change household consuming lifestyle to reduce PHCEs.     

Spatial distribution of greenhouse gas concentrations in arid and semi-arid regions: A case study in East Asia

Land degradation and global warming are currently highly active research topics. Land degradation can both change land cover and surface climate and significantly influence atmospheric circulation. Researches have verified that carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) are major greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere and are directly affected by human activity. However, to date, there is no research on the spatial distribution of GHG concentrations and also no research on how land degradations affect GHG concentrations in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used GHG data from the ENVIronment SATellite (ENVISAT) and the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and precipitation data from ground stations to analyze the way land degradation affects GHG concentrations in northern China and Mongolia, which exhibit the most serious land degradation process in East Asia. Our research revealed that the CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations (XCO₂ and XCH₄) increased from 2003 to 2009 and then decreased into 2011. We used geostatistics to predict and simulate the spatial distribution of XCO₂ and XCH₄ and found that the distribution of XCO₂ displays a seasonal trend and is primarily affected by plant photosynthesis, soil respiration and precipitation. As the distribution of XCH₄ is mainly affected by the sources' distribution, microbial processes, LST and submarine hydrate, the CH₄ concentration presents no obvious seasonal changes and the high XCH₄ values are primarily found in northeast and southeast China. Land degradation increases the concentration of GHG: the correlation coefficient between NDVI and XCO₂ is R² = 0.76 (P < 0.01) and the value between NDVI and XCH₄ is R² = 0.75 (P < 0.01).     

公共交通影响下的北京公共服务设施可达性

本文尝试利用大量微观空间数据从供需角度评价北京公共交通影响下的公共服务设施可达性及其空间效率和供需匹配情况,分别采用比例法与最短时间距离法测算公共服务设施的可达性,运用定序变量相关法与因子空间叠置法分析公共设施可达性的供需匹配程度。结果表明：北京居住小区公共设施总体可达性水平较高。其中,4环以内各类公共设施可达性水平最高,居住小区到公共设施的平均时间20分钟内的小区占比高达90%以上;5-6环可达性水平最差,平均时间20分钟内的小区占比在50%以下。高需求高可达性街道比重相对较高,而高需求低可达性街道主要分布于5-6环的东部和北部地区。在公共设施中,小学可达性最好,而医院和购物中心则更强调空间效率。针对识别出的公共设施的高需求低可达性街道,应从出行方式、公共交通线路与公共服务设施建设等方面采取对策,化解公共设施的供需矛盾问题。     

Germination responses of Medicago ruthenica seeds to salinity,alkalinity, and temperature

To determine the effects of and the interactions between salinity and temperature, and alkalinity and temperature, we conducted three germination tests of Medicago ruthenica (L.) Sojak cv. ‘Zhilixing’ seeds in growth chambers. In experiment 1, the seeds were placed at a range of temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, or 40 °C), and in experiments 2 and 3, we varied the salinity (0, 50, 100, 150, 200, or 250 mM NaCl) and alkalinity (1, 5, 10, 15, 20, or 25 mM Na₂CO₃), respectively, within three ranges of alternating temperatures (10–20, 15–25, and 20–30 °C). The seeds of M. ruthenica (L.) Sojak cv. ‘Zhilixing’ showed high percentage germination at all temperatures, except for 5 °C. Seeds germinated well at low NaCl and Na₂CO₃ concentrations under all three alternating temperature regimes. Approximately half the seeds germinated at high salinity and alkalinity at 15–25 °C, whereas the ungerminated seeds germinated when the high-saline and alkaline stresses were removed. These results suggest that M. ruthenica (L.) Sojak cv. ‘Zhilixing’ has potential utility as a forage legume in saline and alkaline environments.     

Laboratory analysis of the effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on respiration in biological soil crusts

Metabolic activity of Biological Soil Crusts (BSCs) is principally dependent on moisture availability, but also on temperature and light conditions. Less understood is how BSCs respond to elevated atmospheric CO₂. This paper reports laboratory experimental results of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on carbon fluxes for cyanobacterial BSCs. The study uses newly designed dynamic gas exchange chambers in which the internal atmosphere was controlled. CO₂ flux was monitored during controlled experiments in two phases under simulated rainfall events (2 & 5 mm plus control with no wetting) each lasting 3 days with a dry period in between. Phase 1 subjected crusts to 392 ppm CO₂ (representing ambient level) in dry air; in phase 2, the CO₂ concentration was 801 ppm. Both phases exhibited significant efflux (respiration) of CO₂ immediately after wetting, followed by substantial influx (sequestration) of CO₂. Samples subject to 2 mm wetting sequestered an order of magnitude more C under elevated CO₂ than at ambient CO₂; for samples subject to 5 mm wetting, this increase was threefold. The findings highlight the role of BSCs in future carbon budgets by enabling greater sequestration into dryland soils even under enhanced atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, following both light and heavy rainfall events.     

Subsurface Sequestration of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in the U.S: Is it Money Best Spent?

The continuously decreasing average coal rank (heating value), inadequate investment, and ever stricter air-emission controls have caused the average efficiency of electricity generation from coal in the U.S. to plummet to a mere 32% by the year 2008. The U.S. gas-fired powerplants are 30% more efficient than the coal-fired ones, with average efficiency of 43% in 2008. Replacing each 1,000 MW _e generated by an average coal-fired powerplant with an average gas-fired powerplant would avoid today 7 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions, 1.2 million tonnes of toxic ash, and significant issues with water contamination. The parallel upgrades to the more efficient supercritical steam turbines would decrease current emissions by up to 50% (from the current average plant efficiency of 32% to over 45%). The CO₂ captured in the new combined-cycle powerplants might be used to enhance oil recovery in local fields, where feasible. The CO₂ enhanced oil recovery (EOR) can never become the main sink for the gigantic CO₂ volume generated each year by electric powerplants. Currently, EOR could absorb only 1% of that volume.     

居民家庭日常出行碳排放的发生机制与调控策略——以北京市为例

根据2007年北京市居民活动日志调查数据,利用Amos7.0软件建立单效标因素的路径分析模型,试图在"社区-家庭"层面上挖掘"空间利用-出行特征-碳排放"的内在发生机理,藉此寻找城市空间组织低碳化的调控路径。研究发现:影响居民家庭日常出行碳排放的主要因素是出行距离和出行方式。社区空间利用特征对家庭出行的距离总量有显著影响,对小汽车出行比率则没有明显作用效果;私家车的购置对居民家庭出行行为的高碳化具有不可逆的作用特点;在现有设施条件、空间环境和车辆使用政策下,公共交通对私人交通出行没有替代性。研究认为,城市空间组织和调控优化应通过土地混合利用、设施供给等物质空间组织与再组织手段,形成空间行为组织和行为规划策略,引导居民降低交通发生量,优化居民交通发生的时空结构,建构低碳的城市空间结构。     

Carbon exchange rates in Polytrichum juniperinum moss of burned black spruce forest in interior Alaska

The Boreal black spruce forest is highly susceptible to wildfire, and postfire changes in soil temperature and substrates have the potential to shift large areas of such an ecosystem from a net sink to a net source of carbon. In this paper, we examine CO₂ exchange rates (e.g., NPP and Re) in juniper haircap moss (Polytrichum juniperinum) and microbial respiration in no-vegetation conditions using an automated chamber system in a five-year burned black spruce forest in interior Alaska during the fall season of 2009. Mean ± standard deviation microbial respiration and NEP (net ecosystem productivity) of juniper haircap moss were 0.27 ± 0.13 and 0.28 ± 0.38 gCO₂/m²/hr, respectively. CO₂ exchange rates and microbial respiration showed temporal variations following fluctuation in air temperature during the fall season, suggesting the temperature sensitivity of juniper haircap moss and soil microbes after fire. During the 45-day fall period, mean NEP of P. juniperinum moss was 0.49 ± 0.28 MgC/ha following the five-year-old forest fire. On the other hand, simulated microbial respiration normalized to a 10 °C temperature might be stimulated by as much as 0.40 ± 0.23 MgC/ha. These findings demonstrate that the fire-pioneer species juniper haircap moss is a net C sink in the burned black spruce forest of interior Alaska.     

Carbon emissions trends with optimal balanced economic growth of China and the USA and some abatement options for China

It is believed that the global CO2 emissions have to begin dropping in the near fu- ture to limit the temperature increase within 2 degrees by 2100. So it is of great concern to environmentalists and national decision-makers to know how the global or national CO2 emissions would trend. This paper presented an approach to project the future CO2 emissions from the perspective of optimal economic growth, and applied this model to the cases of China and the United States, whose CO2 emissions together contributed to more than 40% of the global emissions. The projection results under the balanced and optimal economic growth path reveal that the CO2 emissions will peak in 2029 for China and 2024 for the USA owing to their empirically implied pace of energy efficiency improvement. Moreover, some abatement options are analyzed for China, which indicate that 1） putting up the energy price will de- crease the emissions at a high cost; 2） enhancing the decline rate of energy intensity can significantly mitigate the emissions with a modest cost; and 3） the energy substitution policy of replacing carbon intensive energies with clean ones has considerable potential to alleviate emissions without compromising the economic development.     

Specific Storage Volumes: A Useful Tool for CO2 Storage Capacity Assessment

Subsurface geologic strata have the potential to store billions of tons of anthropogenic CO₂; therefore, geologic carbon sequestration can be an effective mitigation tool used to slow the rate at which levels of atmospheric CO₂ are increasing. Oil and gas reservoirs, coal beds, and saline reservoirs can be used for CO₂ storage; however, it is difficult to assess and compare the relative storage capacities of these different settings. Typically, CO₂ emissions are reported in units of mass, which are not directly applicable to comparing the CO₂ storage capacities of the various storage targets. However, if the emission values are recalculated to volumes per unit mass (specific volume) then the volumes of geologic reservoirs necessary to store CO₂ emissions from large point sources can be estimated. The factors necessary to convert the mass of CO₂ emissions to geologic storage volume (referred to here as Specific Storage Volume or ‘SSV’) can be reported in units of cubic meters, cubic feet, and petroleum barrels. The SSVs can be used to estimate the reservoir volume needed to store CO₂ produced over the lifetime of an individual point source, and to identify CO₂ storage targets of sufficient size to meet the demand from that given point source. These storage volumes also can then be projected onto the land surface to outline a representative “footprint,” which marks the areal extent of storage. This footprint can be compared with the terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity of the same land area. The overall utility of this application is that the total storage capacity of any given parcel of land (from surface to basement) can be determined, and may assist in making land management decisions.     

Latitudinal distribution of soil CO2 efflux and temperature along the Dalton Highway,Alaska

In this paper, we investigate spatial variations in soil CO₂ efflux and carbon dynamics across five sites located between 65.5°N and 69.0°N in tundra and boreal forest biomes of Alaska. Growing and winter mean CO₂ effluxes for the period 2006–2010 were 261 ± 124 (Coefficients of Variation: 48%) and 71 ± 42 (CV: 59%) gCO₂/m², respectively. This indicates that winter CO₂ efflux contributed 24% of the annual CO₂ efflux over the period of measurement. In tundra and boreal biomes, tussock is an important source of carbon efflux to the atmosphere, and contributes 3.4 times more than other vegetation types. To ensure that representativeness of soil CO₂ efflux was determined, 36 sample points were used at each site during the growing season, so that the experimental mean fell within ±20% of the full sample mean at 80% and 90% confidence levels. We found that soil CO₂ efflux was directly proportional to the seasonal mean soil temperature, but inversely proportional to the seasonal mean soil moisture level, rather than to the elevation-corrected July air temperature. This suggests that the seasonal mean soil temperature is the dominant control on the latitudinal distribution of soil CO₂ efflux in the high-latitude ecosystems of Alaska.     

就医空间可达性分析的两步移动搜索法——以江苏省东海县为例

精确评价医疗设施可达性的空间分异样状况是合理配置医疗资源的前提。本文在回顾国内外关于医疗空间可达性研究的基础上, 采用两步移动搜索法, 以江苏省贫困县--东海县为案例, 以行政村和医院为分析单元, 基于迪卡斯特拉算法计算出各村到医院(卫生院)的最短通行时间, 进而分析各村医疗空间可达性分异情况。采用不用服务时间阈值范围进行空间敏感性分析, 综合研判缺医地区分布特点。与传统的医卫人员和人口比值的方法相比, 两步移动搜索法能有效显示县域范围内医疗可达性的空间分异情况。采用较大的时间阈值, 医疗空间可达性分异较为平滑, 采用较小服务阈值则空间分异显著, 缺医范围也较大。东海县医疗空间可达性整体呈单核结构, 并沿主要交通线延伸, 缺医地区多分布于边缘乡镇。提高边缘乡镇的行政村的甲级卫生院等级和乡村道路等级将会改善边缘乡镇的就医可达性。     

Transportation sustainability in the urban context: a comprehensive review

ABSTRACT

Although the term “sustainability” did not gain traction until the 1980s, concerns about the consequences of transportation technology started long before. This paper reviews the literature on urban transportation sustainability using three frameworks. First, urban transportation can be unsustainable environmentally, economically, and socially (the three pillars of sustainability). Second, sustainable strategies tend to fall into two paradigms. Sustainable Transport Technology improves current patterns of modes and trips by consuming less resources and generating less waste. Sustainable Travel Behavior and Built Environment takes a more holistic approach that targets more sustainable travel choices, recognizing that changes in the built environment that currently constrains those choices are also essential. Third, the Planner’s Triangle helps explain commonly encountered situations where inherent tradeoffs can impede win-win-win strategies across environmental, economic, and social domains. The paper concludes with future research directions and concluding thoughts about urban transportation and sustainability.