海洋钻井平台购置项目经济风险评估

以某海洋钻井公司购置自升式深水钻井平台为例，建立了海洋平台购置项目经济风险评估的综合概率模型。考虑未来的平台购置价格、作业租金、年营运天数、年维修费、日耗油量、还贷资金利率等多种因素的影响，对项目投资的经济评价指标进行了风险计算。通过主要参数的灵敏度分析，使得决策指标更趋于客观实际。     

An assessment model for the fate and environmental effects of offshore drilling mud discharges

The benthic boundary layer transport (bblt) model was developed to assess potential impact zones from drilling mud discharges from offshore oil and gas drilling. The model focuses on the drift, dispersion and concentration levels of the suspended fraction of the drilling mud fines in the benthic boundary layer with the assumption of a spatially homogeneous environment. The current version of the model includes a wave boundary layer, a breakup module for drilling mud flocs, a dose–response module for scallops, and a graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI was written in Java which makes the code largely platform independent. Simulations of suspended barite concentration near Sable Island on the Scotian Shelf during drilling in the fall of 1999 reproduce the very low concentrations (generally less than 1 μg L⁻¹) observed during the Environmental Effects Monitoring program. However, the simulations also exhibited concentrations in excess of the no-effects concentration for scallops (100 μg L⁻¹) prior to the sampling program. The model estimates that the potential impact on scallops in the vicinity of the drilling is a few days of lost growth over scales of a few kilometers.     

Strategic environmental assessment opportunities and risks for Arctic offshore energy planning and development

Canada's Arctic environment is rich in hydrocarbon resources. As international attention turns to the Arctic to meet global energy demands there is increased recognition of the need to advance upstream impact assessment and decision-making to plan for energy development. There have been several applications of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) over the past decade in the international offshore energy sector; however, SEA remains underdeveloped offshore in comparison to project-based environmental impact assessment and unchartered territory in Canada's Arctic. This paper examines stakeholder perceptions of the opportunities and risks of advancing SEA for offshore energy planning and development in Canada's Beaufort Sea. Results indicate a number of perceived opportunities for SEA, including improved regulatory efficiency, better regional baselines and planning practices, an opportunity to assess cumulative effects, more meaningful project-based assessment, and greater certainty for industry stakeholders. At the same time there are a number of perceived risks, including foregoing anticipated development opportunities, the loss of flexibility in decision making, adding another layer of bureaucracy, and the added uncertainties of a novel approach. The implications of these findings for advancing SEA in the offshore energy sector are discussed.     

Geochemical and biological marker assessment of depositional environments using Brazilian offshore oils

A combined geochemical and molecular characterization of a wide selection of oils from the major Brazilian offshore basins has been undertaken. The elemental (sulphur, nickel and vanadium) and bulk (^oAPI and δ¹³C) properties of each sample been considered, together with its molecular composition determined using liquid and gas chromatography, and quantitative biological marker investigations using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry for alkanes.The results reveal significant differences in the chemical features of the various oils which enable them to be divided into five groups. The distinction of the groups appears to reflect differences in the depositional environment of the source rocks of the oils. Each group is correlated tentatively with source rocks laid down in a specific depositional regime, namely lacustrine freshwater, lacustrine saline water, marine evaporitic, marine carbonate or marine deltaic. The diagnostic features that allow this classification are: the relative abundance and carbon number distributions of n-alkanes; pristane/phytane ratios; sulphur, nickel and vanadium contents; carbon isotope data; the absolute concentrations of hopanes and steranes, and their abundance relative to 4-methylsteranes and, also the occurrence and abundance of several specific biological markers, including 18α(H)-oleanane, gammacerane, β-carotane, tricyclic terpanes, higher acyclic isoprenoids, 28, 30-bisnorhopane and 25, 28, 30-trisnorhopane. This investigation shows the value of a combined geochemical and molecular approach in the assessment of the palaeoenvironment of deposition of the source rocks which gave rise to the oils.     

海洋钻井井筒内温度确定

海洋钻井诸多问题的解决都依赖于井筒内温度的准确确定。根据能量守恒原理,推导出了海洋深水钻井温度场的控制方程,包括环空内、钻杆内以及地层内的温度场方程,并给出了方程求解的定解条件。计算结果表明：环空内的温度会受到钻井液密度和循环流量的影响,密度越大、流量越低,环空温度越接近于外部环境温度。     

适合海洋钻井无土相强抑制性钻井液体系的研究

在渤海湾盆地,由于沉积地层存在大段活性软泥页岩,普通聚合物钻井液体系的包被抑制能力不够,封堵能力不强,剪切稀释能力差,在钻遇该泥页岩井段时,经常出现井下复杂情况,并且油层受到一定程度的伤害。为此,研制了无土相强抑制性钻井液体系。从体系中处理剂的防塌抑制机理出发,确定了强抑制性钻井液体系构建的最优组合。研究结果表明该钻井液体系具有强的抑制性,岩屑滚动回收率达到95.6%,接近于油基泥浆;并且具有良好的润滑性、抗温性、抗钻屑污染、抗CaCl2污染、抗MgCl2污染以及良好的储层保护性能,渗透率恢复值能达到85%以上,能够满足大段软泥页岩等复杂地层的钻井要求,具有广阔的应用前景。     

山东省周边海域波浪能资源评估

采用第三代海浪模式SWAN对2001-2010年期间山东省周边海域的波浪状况进行了数值模拟。波浪能数值模拟值与台站观测值的比对结果表明模拟值可靠、实用。分析发现山东省周边海域平均波能流密度以2 000W/m以下为主,低于中国南部海域及欧美沿岸波能流密度。选取12个典型代表点,从波能流密度大小、变化特征、稳定性等角度分析了不同代表点的波浪能情况,发现山东周边波能流密度受气候变化影响近10年来呈上升趋势。综合不同区域波浪能大小及需求情况,建议选取山东半岛东部海域、蓬莱外围岛屿近渤海中部海域和渤海中部海域作为波浪能开发利用的首选区域。其中成山头东部海域波能流密度在冬季高达5 000 W/m,在该季节大部分区域可归为一类资源丰富区。基于此,建议开发利用中小规模的波浪能供电设备或供电设施。     

Satellite monitoring of ice features to ensure safety of offshore operations in the Arctic seas

Methods for processing satellite data on ice features that pose a threat to the safety of offshore operations in the Arctic seas are considered. They are divided into interactive, automated, and automatic methods. The methods are illustrated by examples of archival satellite data on the Russian Arctic sector. Radar and optical data have been used as the satellite information source. It is shown that the successful satellite monitoring of dangerous ice features requires the optimal combination of satellite observations at various stages that provide for a synergistic approach to the data assimilation of different spectral bands obtained using different spacecraft.     

海洋石油钻井平台工程地质条件评价技术研究

海洋石油钻井平台是海洋油气勘探开发的重要手段,其安全就位和稳定施工,与井场区海底的工程地质条件密切相关。就事关平台安全的工程地质条件预测评价技术作了研究,评价预测了与自升式钻井平台稳定作业有关的软弱下卧地层的穿插和持力、海底斜坡条件下工程地质层稳定性、半潜式钻井平台的锚固力以及不同底质条件下海底底流的冲蚀。推荐了实践有效的半经验计算公式,为海洋石油钻井平台井场工程地质条件的稳定评价提供参考。     

海洋石油平台溢油风险评价研究

通过层次分析法,系统分析了我国钻井平台及生产平台的溢油风险因子,初步建立了该类设施的溢油风险评价指标体系,并运用多级模糊综合评级模型对目标设施的溢油风险进行综合评价。利用该评价方法对渤海某一钻井平台进行溢油风险分析,结果表明该平台溢油风险等级较低,风险因子中海区环境及平台疲劳老化程度的风险相对突出。该评价方法可及时判断目标设施的溢油风险等级,为减少、预防各类平台溢油事故提供技术支持。     

老龄海上移动平台结构安全管理初探

主要介绍了中国船级社对老龄海上移动平台加强检验的管理要求,对船龄超过30年的老龄移动平台实行特别现场检验和检测,并根据实际测厚数据进行平台结构强度校核,最终确定平台安全状况是否满足主管机关要求。以一个实际老龄自升式钻井平台为例,介绍了现场检验和检测要求,并通过实际计算分析指导现场进行结构加强,保证了此老龄平台日后的作业安全。中国船级社对老龄移动平台的管理手段开创了超期服役海上移动平台安全管理的新模式,对保障我国海洋工程装备安全生产具有重要意义。     

Complex scientific and technical trends of Russian Federation Arctic offshore hydrocarbon resource development

Based on the analysis of geological, technical and hydrometeorological conditions of the coastal part of the Arctic offshore, a concept of its hydrocarbon resource development is submitted.     

Involving the public in the impact assessment of offshore renewable energy facilities

Public participation in decision-making about development has many benefits especially in the coastal zone and in the near-shore marine environment. This research expands the discussion of public involvement in decisions about marine resource use by examining public participation in environmental impact assessment as relevant for offshore renewable energy facilities. A review of empirical and theoretical research supports the development of a framework for further analysis. The framework consists of five main features: (1) effective communication, (2) broad-based inclusion, (3) prioritization, (4) early three-way learning, and (5) alternatives analysis. The paper's concluding sections explore the relevance of such a framework and indicate possible applications.     

台风作用下海上风机基础结构安全评价

海上风机结构在运营期内可能面临极端风浪、地震等荷载作用。因此,极端工况作用下海上风机局部和整体结构反应将成为结构设计以及安全评价的重要参数。采用半整体方法,以桩基泥面最大位移、结构杆件极端承载力以及桩基抗压、抗拔承载力为判定指标,基于塑性可靠度理论,系统研究台风条件下运营期内海上风机基础结构可靠度指标变化规律,得出潜在的基础结构失效模式及相应判定指标。由研究可得,台风条件下运营期内海上风机基础结构各可靠度将显著受到基础冲刷、海生物生长和结构腐蚀的影响,并且结构失效模式将由单一模式破坏发展为多种模式联合失效。     

海洋平台板架结构简化评估对比研究

在海洋浮体平台设计初期,为了快速评估设计方案的结构强度水平,需要研究高效的简化方法。本文基于正交异性板理论,综合了平面应力和横向弯曲两种承载方式,改进了板架结构的正交简化评估方法。改进方法克服了原来只针对单一载荷型式的局限性,可以满足组合载荷状态下板架参数的等效变换。为了验证改进方法的适用性和精度水平,分别采用常规方法和改进方法,针对某案例平台的局部板架结构和整体结构开展了强度评估。评估结果表明,采用改进方法得到的结构区域应力水平误差在15%以内,满足初始阶段总强度评估的精度要求。     

An assessment of Arctic cloud water paths in atmospheric reanalyses

The role of Arctic clouds in the recent rapid Arctic warming has attracted much attention. However, Arctic cloud water paths(CWPs) from reanalysis datasets have not been well evaluated. This study evaluated the CWPs as well as LWPs(cloud liquid water paths) and IWPs(cloud ice water paths) from five reanalysis datasets(MERRA-2,MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and ERA5) against the COSP(Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observations Simulator Package) output for MODIS from the MERRA-2 CSP(COSP satellite simulator) collection(defined as M2 Modis in short). Averaged over 1980–2015 and over the Arctic region(north of 60°N), the mean CWPs of these five datasets range from 49.5 g/m~2(MERRA) to 82.7 g/m~2(ERA-Interim), much smaller than that from M2 Modis(140.0 g/m~2). However, the spatial distributions of CWPs, show similar patterns among these reanalyses, with relatively small values over Greenland and large values over the North Atlantic. Consistent with M2 Modis, these reanalyses show larger LWPs than IWPs, except for ERA-Interim. However, MERRA-2 and MERRA underestimate the ratio of IWPs to CWPs over the entire Arctic, while ERA-Interim and JRA-55 overestimate this ratio. ERA5 shows the best performance in terms of the ratio of IWPs to CWPs. All datasets exhibit larger CWPs and LWPs in summer than in winter. For M2 Modis, IWPs hold seasonal variation similar with LWPs over the land but opposite over the ocean. Following the Arctic warming, the trends in LWPs and IWPs during 1980～2015 show that LWPs increase and IWPs decrease across all datasets, although not statistically significant. Correlation analysis suggests that all datasets have similar interannual variability. The study further found that the inclusion of re-evaporation processes increases the humidity in the atmosphere over the land and that a more realistic liquid/ice phase can be obtained by independently treating the liquid and ice water contents.     

An offshore eddy in the California current system part III: Chemical structure

From January 9 to 17, 1981, detailed physical, chemical and biological measurements were made through the historical surface signature (Berstein, Breaker and Whritner, 1977; Burkov and Pavlova, 1980; Simpson, 1982) of a warm-core eddy in the California Current System. The data show a three-layer system: surface layer to 75 m, intermediate cold-core region to about 200 m, and the physically dominant subsurface warm-core eddy to about 1400 m. The chemical structure simultaneously possesses characteristics of both warm- and cold-core eddies. This structure results from a complex interplay among non-local eddy generation processes at the time the three-layer system was formed and a continuous set of interactions within the three-layer system, both inshore (cold) and offshore (warm) waters of the California Current and coastal and local biological processes (e.g. this California Current System eddy is $\text{not}$ an isolated structure like some Gulf Stream rings). The dominant biological/chemical process in the euphotic zone is phytoplankton photosynthesis; photosynthetic alteration of the chemical structure below 100 m is much reduced. The effects of heterotrophic activity on the deeper-lying chemical structure, however are not as significant as those of autotrophs on the chemical structure of the euphotic zone. Hence, below 100 m, the distribution and structure of chemical properties is controlled primarily by physical processes. The continuous set of interactions of the three-layer system with coastal and oceanic waters of the California Current make this offshore eddy in the California Current System fundamentally different chemically and biologically from cold-core Gulf Stream rings and rather similar to some of the warm-core eddies found in the East Australian Current.