Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies

Previous experimental studies have found that people generally misperceive the basic dynamics of renewable resources, and in particular the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The purpose of the present laboratory experiment is to find out why people misperceive the dynamics of CO₂ accumulation and how misperceptions could be avoided. Using a simulator, 242 subjects were each asked to control total global emissions of CO₂ to reach a given target for the stock of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Consistent with previous investigations we find a strong tendency for people to overshoot the stated goal. Furthermore, our results point out that people need help to develop proper mental models of CO₂ accumulation and they need motivation to reconsider inappropriate decision heuristics. Based on these results and the literature on conceptual change a new information strategy is designed. To motivate, it imposes cognitive conflict; and to facilitate new understanding, it provides simple analogies. A new test shows promising learning effects. The results have important implications for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), governments, and media covering the climatic change issue as well as for general education.     

Antarctica and global change

The Antarctic region of the globe is of special importance for a wide range of studies of global change. The IGBP research activities needing special focus for global change should be multidisciplinary, should involve both the geosphere and the biosphere, and should be of global as well as local interest. There are a number of important Antarctic research topics which fit these criteria.A decrease of Antarctic sea ice has a positive feedback on global warming. Reduction in the sea ice also impacts on deep ocean circulation and can give a positive feedback to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the reduction of a deep ocean sink. Changes in the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet impact on global sea level. A unique historic record of past climate and global environmental changes is being obtained from deep core drilling in the Antarctic ice sheet. Decreases of stratospheric ozone are most pronounced over the Antarctic in spring. The impact of increases in ultraviolet radiation on the biosphere can be studied in the Antarctic as a precurser to possible changes developing elsewhere around the globe. Changes in the atmosphere and ocean circulations resulting from the decrease in Antarctic sea ice cover can have important effects on ocean surface temperatures which impact on the climates of the continents.These topics are discussed briefly and a number of Antarctic research areas are highlighted which build on existing or planned international programmes and which can make critical contributions to multidisciplinary studies of global change.     

US public opinion on climate change issues: implications for consensus-building and policymaking

While the Conference of the Parties wrangle at an international scale with climate policy, a quiet set of policies and measures is being implemented at a local scale by municipalities across the globe. This study examines the motivation municipalities have for undertaking policies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, when the theory of free-ridingwould predict that local administrations should find it difficult to unilaterally reduce their emissions for the benefit of the global climate. Through interviews with officials and/or staff in 23 municipalities in the United States enacting climate policy, data are gathered that suggest local government abatement policies are primarily a top—down decision based on what officials or staff members believe to be “good business” or rational policy choices. They are primarily driven by the potential for realised or perceived cost savings and co-benefits rather than by public pressure. Economic data from some dozen municipal projects are analyzed, finding, while municipalities lack sophisticated accounting techniques, some justification for the often-disputed claim that at least initial reductions in emissions can be made at cost savings. In the United States, with the lack of national abatement policies, it is municipalities that are leading the way in beginning to implement mitigation strategies, even if only for initial reductions.     

Policy and global change research

The history of the U.S. Global Change Research Program calls into question its sustainability. The Program was established on the presumption that a prerequisite for rational, comprehensive, and cost-effective policy responses is the reduction of scientific uncertainty through comprehensive predictive models. This presumption remains a significant barrier to the renewal of public support for the Program through near-term progress consistent with its mandate to produce information readily usable by policymakers. This article critiques the use of comprehensive predictive models for policy purposes; proposes one modest alternative to comprehensive predictive models as a means of integrating scientific and non-scientific considerations into recommendations readily usable by policymakers; and places the issue in the broader context of a paradigm shift in U.S. science and technology policy. The purpose is to expedite progress, consistent with the policy mandate, that would help sustain public support for the Program.This is a revision of a paper presented at the Fourteenth Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Washington, DC, October 30, 1993, and included as testimony submitted for the record of Hearings on the Climate Change Action Plan and Assessment, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives (November 16, 1993), 111–140.     

Climate change and global water resources

By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and water resources. It uses climate change scenarios developed from Hadley Centre climate simulations (HadCM2 and HadCM3), and simulates global river flows at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model. Changes in national water resources are calculated, including both internally generated runoff and upstream imports, and compared with national water use estimates developed for the United Nations Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Although there is variation between scenarios, the results suggest that average annual runoff will increase in high latitudes, in equatorial Africa and Asia, and southeast Asia, and will decrease in mid-latitudes and most subtropical regions. The HadCM3 scenario produces changes in runoff which are often similar to those from the HadCM2 scenarios — but there are important regional differences. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover. This has implications for the timing of streamflow in such regions, with a shift from spring snow melt to winter runoff. Under the HadCM2 ensemble mean scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would increase by 53 million by 2025 (relative to those who would be affected in the absence of climate change). Under the HadCM3 scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would rise by 113 million. However, by 2050 there would be a net reduction in populations in stressed countries under HadCM2 (of around 69 million), but an increase of 56 million under HadCM3. The study also showed that different indications of the impact of climate change on water resource stresses could be obtained using different projections of future water use. The paper emphasises the large range between estimates of “impact”, and also discusses the problems associated with the scale of analysis and the definition of indices of water resource impact.     

辽河三角洲湿地与全球变化

重点介绍了辽河三角洲湿地的类型、形成与发育的主导影响因子和全球变化的影响,阐述了盘锦湿地生态系统野外观测站建立的区域代表性与必要性,在此基础上提出了近期辽河三角洲湿地与全球变化相互作用的研究重点。     

Sub-Saharan African urbanisation and global environmental change

Scientific evidence for global environmental change in Africa presents a prima facia case for increased human migration and displacement. Closer scrutiny of the evidence on demographic change, however, suggests that migration and displacement are less important variables in explaining the human dimensions of global environmental change on the continent than is commonly projected. Natural population growth in cities is a more important dynamic in the evolving system of human settlement in Africa and this significant shift in where people live, both now and in the future is overlooked by the emphasis on the potential impact of environmentally induced migration. Even without any movement from the countryside, cities represent the fastest growing sector of the sub-Saharan African population. The existing vulnerability of African cities, with their fast growing populations and weak management means any environmental change is likely to have significant consequences for cities. Taking the sub-Saharan African demographic evidence seriously means that the scholarly and policy emphasis currently directed to GEC migration and displacement might be more effectively redirected to questions of the interface between global environmental change and urban areas.