松嫩平原西部参考作物蒸散量变化过程

采用松嫩平原西部34 个气象站1951~2000 年5 个气象要素资料, 运用FAO Penman- Monteith 方程计算参考作物蒸散量, 建立了各站与区域蒸散量序列。运用气候数理统计方法对蒸 散量序列时空变化特征进行诊断分析, 并以点、面相结合的方式揭示气候突变规律。结果表明, 蒸 散量基本上以西南部沙地为高值中心向东北呈带状递减; 近50 年区域蒸散量略呈增加趋势, 研 究区北部的蒸散量增加贡献最大; 区域蒸散量以1962 和1982 年为转折点, 呈明显的阶段性变 化; 在50 年的演变过程中, 区域蒸散量被检测到2 次增加突变和1 次减少突变, 典型站突变发生 时间与区域突变基本相符, 但突变性质存在明显的地域差异。     

华北山区短时段参考作物蒸散量的计算

短时段参考作物蒸散量的估算是研究华北山区小尺度范围内的水分循环和转化的重要环节.因受观测条件的限制,北方半湿润半干旱山区短时段参考作物蒸散量的研究相对较少.本文利用FAO Penman-Monteith公式、FAO Penman修正式和Priestley-Taylor公式对华北山区东台沟小流域观测到的4个月的气象数据进行了逐日的参考作物蒸散量计算,结果显示,FAO Penman修正式的计算值比FAO Penman-Monteith公式的计算值平均偏大16%左右,而且经过统计分析,它们具有很好的相关性,即在代表流域内使用FAO Penman修正式计算出参考作物蒸散量之后,再乘以一个折算系数(如0.84),即可得到与FAO Penman-Monteith公式的计算值较为相近的结果;而Priestley-Taylor公式的计算值与FAO Penman-Monteith公式的计算值相比,差异比较显著.分析其原因,我们认为是由于Priestley-Taylor公式没有考虑空气动力项对参考作物蒸散量的影响.因此,如果在华北山区使用Priestley-Taylor公式计算参考作物蒸散量,必须根据季节对公式中的常数项α重新进行修正.本文通过对2003年8月～2004年8月期间逐日计算得到的ET0(P-T)和ET0(P-M)值进行对比分析后,给出了修正后的不同季节的α值,为华北山区计算作物蒸散量提供了依据.     

西北地区生长季参考作物蒸散变化成因的定量分析

基于FAO Penman-Monteith 公式计算了我国西北地区126 个测站1961-2009 年的生长季(4-10 月) 参考作物蒸散(ET₀) 对平均气温、风速、相对湿度和太阳辐射的敏感系数,并结合各气象因子的多年变化特征定量讨论参考作物蒸散变化的原因。结果表明：风速和气温的敏感性虽然相对较低,但因其显著变化,成为引起ET₀变化的主导因子,贡献达到-5.22%和3.29%;太阳辐射和相对湿度敏感性较大,但因变化小,贡献仅为-0.76%和0.63%。空间上,气温在西北地区对ET₀ 变化多为正贡献,风速和太阳辐射多为负贡献;相对湿度在西部多为负贡献,东部为正贡献。估算的4 个气象因子共同作用引起的ET₀变化在趋势、数值和空间分布上均与ET₀的实际变化基本一致,两者的相关系数高达0.99,表明结合敏感性分析和气象因子的多年变化来解释西北地区ET₀变化的原因兼具合理性和可行性。而且该方法弥补了趋势分析法、相关分析法和敏感性分析法的不足,为定量分析ET₀变化成因提供一条新思路     

1957-2008年黑河流域径流年内分配变化

根据黑河流域重点控制水文站莺落峡、正义峡实测月径流量观测资料,应用不均匀系数、集中度(期)、变化幅度等方法指标,分析了黑河流域径流年内变化规律;采用累积滤波器和Mann-Kendall秩相关法诊断了各月径流量的变化趋势.结果表明:①对于莺落峡站,总体上各个年代径流年内分配均呈明显的"单峰型"分布,其径流量7月达到极大值...     

1960-2009年横断山区潜在蒸发量时空变化

以横断山区20 个气象站1960-2009 年逐日气象数据为基础,应用1998 年FAO 修正的Penman-Monteith 模型分析了横断山区潜在蒸发量的变化,在ArcGIS 环境下通过样条插值法分析了潜在蒸发量变化的时空分异,并对影响潜在蒸发量变化的气象因素进行了讨论,结果表明：年潜在蒸发量自20 世纪60 年代中期以来呈波动减小趋势,20 世纪80 年代中期之后减小趋势更加明显,2000-2009 年呈增加趋势。潜在蒸发量的年际变化倾向率为-0.17 mm a^-1,从空间分布来看,北部、中部、南部都呈减少趋势,倾向率由北向南逐渐减小。从季节来看,秋季和冬季潜在蒸发量呈增加趋势,春季和夏季呈减小趋势,春季减小趋势大于夏季,秋季增加趋势大于冬季。气温上升、风速和日照时数的降低是横断山区潜在蒸发量减少的主导因素,风速和日照时数的下降导致春季和夏季潜在蒸发量减小,气温上升导致秋季和冬季潜在蒸发量增加。     

近10年来黑河流域生态环境变化特征分析

对比分析黑河流域13万km^2范围内2000年遥感影像数据资料及1987年流域遥感影像资料，结果表明：近10年来黑河流域生态环境总体上仍然向恶化方面发展，流域内天然森林分布面积减少6.35%，中游取代下游成为流域沙漠化发展的主导区域，上游区土沙漠化发展最为迅速；下游草地生态退化十分强烈，草地面积减少达2095.39km^2。但局部或生态环境的某些方面出现明显逆转。     

黑河流域土地利用变化对地下水资源的影响

Land use and land cover changes have a great impact on the regional hydrological process. Based on three periods of remote sensing data from the 1960s and the long-term observed data of groundwater from the 1980s, the impacts of land use changes on the groundwater system in the middle reach of Heihe River Basin in recent three decades are analyzed by the perspective of groundwater recharge and discharge system. The results indicate that with the different intensities of land use changes, the impacts on the groundwater recharge were 2.602 × 10^8 m^3/a in the former 15 years （1969-1985） and 0.218 × 10^8 m^3/a in the latter 15 years （1986-2000）, and the impacts on the groundwater discharge were 2.035 × 10^8 m^3/a and 4.91 × 10^8 m^3/a respectively. When the groundwater exploitation was in a reasonable range less than 3.0 × 10^8 m^3/a, the land use changes could control the changes of regional groundwater resources. Influenced by the land use changes and the large-scale exploitation in the recent decade, the groundwater resources present apparently regional differences in Zhangye region. Realizing the impact of land use changes on groundwater system and the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations of regional groundwater resources would be very important for reasonably utilizing and managing water and soil resources.     

1956-2000年中国潜在蒸散量时空变化特征

1 Introduction Evaporation is one of the important components in the water and heat balances. The transpiration of vegetation and evaporation from soil are collectively called evapotranspiration. Potential evapotranspiration is not only the theoretical li…     

近47 a来黑河流域的降水时空特征分析及预报评估

 利用1960—2006年黑河流域13个气象站, 地面气温、降水等观测资料,对该流域降水的气候年代际特征及干旱变化的成因进行了初步分析。结果表明,该流域降水量,由于受地形地貌、海拔高度和不同尺度大气环流的影响,流域内降水分配极不均匀,南北差异很大, 呈现为东南多西北少, 但降水日数的年月分布和流域的地理分布与降水量分布基本一致。总体上变化均呈波动性上升状态。同时,对2000年承担黑河流域分水的预报任务中研制的黑河流域降水预报服务系统输出的24~48 h降水量预报过程的准确率进行了TS评分检验。证明该系统对黑河流域的降水具有较强的预报能力,预报产品在气象服务工作中有重要参考价值,同时也为今后的精细化预报业务工作打下了一定的基础。     

Application of geodetector in sensitivity analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration spatial changes in Northwest China

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET_0) is an important parameter in the research of farmland irrigation management,crop water demand estimation and water balance in scarce data areas,therefore,it is very important to study the factors af‐fecting the spatial variation of ET_0.In this paper,the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate ET_0which is the de‐pendent variable of elevation (Elev),daily maximum temperature (T_(max)),daily minimum temperature (T_(min)),daily average temperature (T_(mean)),wind speed (U_2),sunshine duration (SD) and relative humidity (RH).The sensitivity analysis of ET_0was performed using a Geodetector method based on spatial stratified heterogeneity.The applicability of Geodetector in sensitivity analysis of ET_0was verified by comparing it with existing research results.Results show that RH,T_(max),SD,and T_(mean)are the main factors affecting ET_0in Northwest China,and RH has the best explanatory power for the spatial distribu‐tion of ET_0.Geodetector has a unique advantage in sensitivity analysis,because it can analyze the synergistic effect of two factors on the change of ET_0.The interactive detector of Geodetector revealed that the synergistic effect of RH and T_(mean)on ET_0is very significant,and can explain 89%of the spatial variation of ET_0.This research provides a new method for sensitivity analysis of ET_0changes.     

澜沧江流域农业灌溉需水的时空变化(英文)

Based on the data of eight meteorological stations from the 1950s to 2007, current cropping patterns, field water moisture management, we use the Mann-Kendall and the Re-scaled Range Analysis methods to research the changes of humidity and crop irrigation water requirements in the Lancang River Basin. The results show that the annual and dry season average temperatures significantly increased, and the dry season rainfall increased while wet season rainfall decreased. Evaportranspiration (ET0) increased during both dry and wet seasons at all stations except Dali, Jianchuan and Gengma, and the aridity-humidity index decreased at most of the stations. The turning points of weather factors, ET0, the arid-ity-humidity index, paddy irrigation requirements and total agricultural water requirements occurred from the 1960s to the 1990s. The spatial changing tendency of paddy irrigation quota increased with the increase of altitude and latitude, and the correlation coefficients are 0.513 and 0.610, respectively. The maximum value is observed in Weixi, while the minimum in Mengla.     

2000-2020年渭河流域植被覆盖度及产水量时空变化

渭河流域是黄土高原最早实施生态治理工程的区域,研究其植被覆盖度和产水量的变化及相互关系,对于黄河流域以及黄土高原来说具有重要意义.基于InVEST产水模型和Landsat遥感影像分析了流域产水量和植被覆盖度的变化特征.结果表明:渭河流域2000-2020年植被覆盖度整体呈显著增加趋势,空间上渭河流域的NDVI从东南至西...     

黑河流域日降水格局及其时间变化

利用10个气象站1950—2000年日降水资料,对黑河流域的降水及其时空格局进行了研究。结果表明:①降水事件以≤5 mm的降水为主,占全年降水事件的82%,0～10 d间隔期占全年无降水期的40.7％,＞10 d间隔期占59.3％;②年降水日数与降水量之间存在显著的正相关性(r=0.78,P<0.01),＞10 mm降水总量与年降水量呈显著正相关,而≤5 mm降水总量与年降水量的相关性差;③＞10 mm和≤5 mm的降水总量变化范围分别为:0～262.6 mm,20.3～172.7 mm ,变异系数分别为0.25～0.92,0.17～0.25;④近50 d来,黑河流域近50 d降水量的变化总体上呈平稳上升趋势,≤5 mm的降水日呈现小幅下降的趋势,≥10 mm的降水日呈小幅上升的趋势。0～10 d的降水间隔期出现的频率总体保持不变,＞10 d间隔期出现的频率出现明显的下降趋势,年内总降水日数保持不变。     

Changes in crop type distribution in Zhangye City of the Heihe River Basin,China

With rapid economic development in China, crops have undergone remarkable changes in both their type and spatial pattern. Timely and accurate information of crop type distribution will help government and agricultural producers quickly understand regional agricultural production conditions to better facilitate appropriate adjustments in planting patterns and policies. Another benefit of acquiring such knowledge of crops is that it should enhance regional agricultural competitiveness, optimize resource allocations, and further guarantee national food security. Towards this end, and using the Zhangye City in the Heihe River Basin as a study area, the present research elaborated upon a methodology to classify crop type distribution based on multi-temporal Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (TM/ETM+) images. Using this methodology we achieved the spatial distributions of crop types in Zhangye City in 2007 and 2012, and analyzed changes in their distributions over this period. In addition, some landscape indices were calculated to clarify the landscape pattern of crops. The crop conversion potentials in 2017 were modeled using four conversion sub-models of the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. Generally, the overall accuracy of crop classification in Zhangye was high, at 89.38%. From 2007 to 2012, the cultivated land area in Zhangye increased from 463.81 × 10³ ha to 493.89 × 10³ ha. The sowing area of corn and oilseed rape increased by 39.21 × 10³ ha and 5.99 × 10³ ha, respectively, while for wheat and barley the sowing area decreased by 3.61 × 10³ ha and 9.14 × 10³ ha, respectively. Considering other crop types as a group, their sowing area decreased by only 2.37 × 10³ ha. The increase in corn sowing area mainly came from the conversion of other crops to corn, which accounted for 43.09% of its total sowing area in 2012. Furthermore, corn and oilseed rape showed a tendency of intensive sowing, whereas for wheat and barley the tendency was towards scattered sowing. For the future, corn has high conversion potential in Linze and Gaotai counties of Zhangye, while wheat, barley and oilseed rape have high conversion potentials in Minle and Shandan counties.     

近55 a渭河流域气候变化

利用渭河流域21个气象站点1960-2015年逐日气象资料,应用一元线性趋势分析、Penman-Monteith模型和Morlet小波分析等技术手段分别研究年、月地表湿润指数,并对其进行标准化和气温、降水以及极端干旱事件的变化趋势计算,并分析年内变化规律,以期更好的揭示渭河流域近55 a气候的变化规律。结果表明：（1）渭河流域近55 a的气温总体上在波动中呈小幅增加的趋势,其中20世纪80年代中期到90年代初期气温的增长幅度较大,为气温升高的主要时期,年均降水量和极端干旱频率呈现小幅减少的趋势,下降的主要时期集中在80年代中后期到90年代初期和21世纪初。（2）小波周期分析发现渭河流域极端干旱事件的震荡周期尺度为13～15 a和25～30 a,气温震荡周期的时间尺度为13～15 a和25～30 a,年降水量的小波振荡周期为15～17 a和25～30 a。主震荡周期的时间尺度均为25～30 a,次震荡周期的时间尺度也较为接近,为13～15 a和15～17 a,说明三者的变化规律在一定程度上有一定的相似性。（3）研究区内5个区域的气候变化特征同时存在着一定的差异性,天水-西吉流域的年均降水量和极端干旱事件发生频率的减少幅度和年均气温的增加幅度是5个区域里变化最大的,吴其-状头区域的年均降水量和极端干旱事件的减少频率和年均温度的增加频率是5个区域里变化幅度最小的,但在总体上各区域气候要素变化趋势上是保持一致的。     

Impacts of land use changes on groundwater resources in the Heihe River Basin

Land use and land cover changes have a great impact on the regional hydrological process. Based on three periods of remote sensing data from the 1960s and the long-term observed data of groundwater from the 1980s, the impacts of land use changes on the groundwater system in the middle reach of Heihe River Basin in recent three decades are analyzed by the perspective of groundwater recharge and discharge system. The results indicate that with the different intensities of land use changes, the impacts on the groundwater recharge were 2.602×108 m3/a in the former 15 years (1969-1985) and 0.218×108 m3/a in the latter 15 years (1986-2000), and the impacts on the groundwater discharge were 2.035×108 m3/a and 4.91×108 m3/a respectively. When the groundwater exploitation was in a reasonable range less than 3.0×108 m3/a, the land use changes could control the changes of regional groundwater resources. Influenced by the land use changes and the large-scale exploitation in the recent decade, the groundwater resources present apparently regional differences in Zhangye region. Realizing the impact of land use changes on groundwater system and the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations of regional groundwater resources would be very important for reasonably utilizing and managing water and soil resources.     

黄河流域NDVI/土地利用对蒸散发时空变化的影响

基于蒸散发(ET)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)及土地利用数据利用M-K检验、Sen趋势分析等方法,研究2001—2015年黄河流域ET时空分布及不同植被覆盖/土地利用下的ET变化规律.结果 表明:(1)黄河流域年均ET呈东南高西北低的空间分布格局,与植被覆盖和土地利用的关系具有较好的一致性;(2)黄河流域ET、NDVI...     

1960-2009年中国降雨侵蚀力的时空变化趋势

降雨侵蚀力反映了降雨对土壤侵蚀的潜在能力,因此降雨侵蚀力已经成为土壤侵蚀、产沙和水环境建模的主要参数之一。利用中国590个气象站1960-2009年逐日降雨量资料估算了中国每个气象站的降雨侵蚀力,并使用趋势系数、气候倾向率和Kriging空间插值方法分析了中国降雨侵蚀力的时空变化趋势。结果表明:我国年均降雨侵蚀力从东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐递减,与年均降水量空间分布基本一致;近50年来我国大部分地区年降雨侵蚀力呈现不显著的上升趋势,存在四个明显的上升区域和两个明显的下降区域;59个气象站年降雨侵蚀力变化趋势通过了0.05显著水平的置信度检验,年降雨侵蚀力显著增加的气象站主要分布在青藏高原中东部、东缘、天山山脉以及东南沿海区域。青海省的诺木洪-都兰-曲麻莱-伍道梁一带近50年来年降雨侵蚀力增加趋势最为显著,有可能加剧长江、黄河源头土壤侵蚀的风险。