Interacting Loop Current variability and Mississippi River discharge over the past 400 kyr

The Loop Current mediating the oceanic heat and salt flux from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean and its interference with the Mississippi River discharge are critical for both the regional climate in the Gulf of Mexico area and the water vapor transport towards high northern latitudes. We present a 400-kyr record of sea surface temperature and local surface salinity from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (IMAGES core MD02-2575) approximated from combined planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca, which reflects the temporal dynamics of the Loop Current and its relationship to both varying Mississippi discharge and evolution of the Western Hemisphere Warm pool. The reconstructed sea surface temperature and salinity reveal glacial/interglacial amplitudes that are significantly larger than in the Western Hemisphere Warm pool. Sea surface freshening is observed during the extreme cool periods of Marine Isotope Stages 2, 8, and 10, caused by the strengthened Mississippi discharge which spread widely across the Gulf favored by the less established Loop Current. Interglacial and interstadial sea-surface conditions, instead, point to a strengthened, northward flowing Loop Current in line with the northward position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, allowing northeastern Gulf of Mexico surface hydrographic conditions to approach those of the Caribbean. At these times, the Mississippi discharge was low and deflected westward, promoted by the extended Loop Current. Previously described deglacial megadischarge events further to the west did not affect the northeastern Gulf of Mexico hydrography, implying that meltwater routing from the Laurentide Ice Sheet via the Mississippi River is unlikely to have affected Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.     

Circulation patterns inferred from the movement of detached buoys in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

The release times of five buoys, which broke free of moorings on the Alabama inner shelf, are known. The locations of subsequent sightings or recoveries of the buoys gave estimated trajectories of the buoys. These results show that the inner-shelf circulation is strongly wind-driven. When the Loop Current penetrates deeply into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, outer shelf waters are often entrained by the Loop Current.     

The role of the West Florida Shelf topography on the Loop Current system variability

Ocean Dynamics - The evolution of the Loop Current (LC) system under the interaction with the complex topography of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is examined. Focusing on the eastern GoM, we study the...     

Impact of GODAE products on nested HYCOM simulations of the West Florida Shelf

Nested non-assimilative simulations of the West Florida Shelf for 2004–2005 are used to quantify the impact of initial and boundary conditions provided by Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ocean products. Simulations are nested within an optimum interpolation hindcast of the Atlantic Ocean, the initial test of the US Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system for the Gulf of Mexico, and a global ocean hindcast that used the latter assimilation system. These simulations are compared to one that is nested in a non-assimilative Gulf of Mexico model to document the importance of assimilation in the outer model. Simulations are evaluated by comparing model results to moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements and moored sea surface temperature time series. The choice of outer model has little influence on simulated velocity fluctuations over the inner and middle shelf where fluctuations are dominated by the deterministic wind-driven response. Improvement is documented in the representation of alongshore flow variability over the outer shelf, driven in part by the intrusion of the Loop Current and associated cyclones at the shelf edge near the Dry Tortugas. This improvement was realized in the simulation nested in the global ocean hindcast, the only outer model choice that contained a realistic representation of Loop Current transport associated with basin-scale wind-driven gyre circulation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. For temperature, the non-assimilative outer model had a cold bias in the upper ocean that was substantially corrected in the data-assimilative outer models, leading to improved temperature representation in the simulations nested in the assimilative outer models.     

Hurricane-induced motions and interaction with ocean currents

Hurricanes produce mixing and flow divergences (and convergences) that alter the upper-ocean heat content (OHC), which in turn affects the storm. Ocean observations under a hurricane are rare, making it difficult to validate forecast models. Past research have mainly focused on OHC-changes by vertical mixing and tacitly assumed that horizontal transports are slowly varying. Moreover, effects of coastal boundaries on ocean responses to hurricanes are generally omitted. This work uses satellite data to detect and verify forecast isopycnal motions under hurricane Wilma (Oct/16–26/2005) in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The model is then used to show that Wilma-induced convergences in northwestern Caribbean Sea produce increased Yucatan-Channel transport into the Gulf ahead of the storm, and the Yucatan–Loop Current front diverts most of this heat around the Loop. This response is distinct from that of an ocean without the Loop, for which warming is widespread north of the channel. These intricate ocean responses can impact hurricane predictions.     

2010 oil spill: trajectory projections based on ensemble drifter analyses

An accurate method for long-term (weeks to months) projections of oil spill trajectories based on multi-year ensemble analyses of simulated surface and subsurface (z = −800 m) drifters released at the northern Gulf of Mexico spill site is demonstrated during the 2010 oil spill. The simulation compares well with satellite images of the actual oil spill which show that the surface spread of oil was mainly confined to the northern shelf and slope of the Gulf of Mexico, with some (more limited) spreading over the north/northeastern face of the Loop Current, as well as northwestward toward the Louisiana–Texas shelf. At subsurface, the ensemble projection shows drifters spreading south/southwestward, and this tendency agrees well with ADCP current measurements near the spill site during the months of May–July, which also show southward mean currents. An additional model analysis during the spill period (Apr–Jul/2010) confirms the above ensemble projection. The 2010 analysis confirms that the reason for the surface oil spread to be predominantly confined to the northern Gulf shelf and slope is because the 2010 wind was more southerly compared to climatology and also because a cyclone existed north of the Loop Current which moreover was positioned to the south of the spilled site.     

The influence of Gulf of Mexico Loop Current intrusion on the transport of the Florida Current

Based on an empirical orthogonal function analysis of satellite altimeter data, guidance from numerical model results, and CANEK transport estimates, we propose an index, based on differences in satellite-measured sea surface height anomalies, for measuring the influence of Gulf of Mexico Loop Current intrusion on vertically integrated transport variability through the Yucatan Channel. We show that the new index is significantly correlated at low frequencies (cut-off 120 days) with the cable estimates of transport between Florida and the Bahamas. We argue that the physical basis for the correlation is the geometric connectivity between the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida.     

Low-frequency current variability observed at the shelfbreak in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico: May–October, 2004

High-resolution current measurements were made in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) as part of its Slope to Shelf Energetics and Exchange Dynamics (SEED) project. The major goal of SEED is to understand the mechanisms that transfer properties across the shelf slope. Fourteen acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) were deployed just west of the DeSoto Canyon on the shelf and down the slope from May to November, 2004 to measure nearly full water column current profiles. Currents were found more variable on the shelf than on the slope but in the mean strongly tended to follow bathymetry, particularly on the slope. During the SEED time period currents were driven by both local and remote winds, by cyclonic eddies associated with the Loop Current extension and Loop Current rings, by smaller eddies associated with the cyclonic eddies, by frontal meanders or streamers associated with the eddies, and by tropical storms. Currents were highly barotropic, accounting for more than 80% of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Current magnitudes generally increased from west to east, towards the DeSoto Canyon. Tropical storms had a relatively minor short-term effect upon mass transports. Cross-shelf transports were much smaller than the along-shelf transports. Onshore transports were stronger on the western side of the array while offshore transports were stronger on the eastern side of the array near the DeSoto Canyon. Offshore transports generally occurred during eastward flow periods, onshore transports during westward flow periods, and both during eddy periods. Mesoscale eddies also provided contributions to cross-shelf exchange. Large scale circulation features could be determined from the first two empirical-orthogonal function (EOF) modes which accounted for 83% of the variance and were strongly related to the integrated wind stress.     

Inflow and outflow in a rotating circular container—A laboratory model for the Loop Current of the Gulf of Mexico

The Loop Current of the Gulf of Mexico is simulated in the laboratory. A circular tank is filled with water and is placed off-center on a rotating table and the flow field is generated by injecting and withdrawing water at two openings on the wall. The free surface becomes parabolic due to balance of gravitational and centrifugal forces, simulating the latitudinal change of the Coriolis parameter (-effect) in the ocean. The flow characteristics depend on the influx and the rate of rotation and can be classified according to non-dimensional parameters (Rossby, Ekman and Froude numbers denoted byR ₀,E andF, respectively). When the influx is small and the rotation rate is large (smallR ₀,E andF) the flow will be almost linear, and the fluid flows along the side-wall boundary layer under constraint of the -effect. For a very large influx (largeR ₀ andE) inertial forces become very large compared to the Coriolis force and the flow behaves like a potential flow. The flow studied had characteristics between these two extreme cases and hasR ₀ andF similar to the Gulf circulation, though similarity inE is ambiguous. Photographs of the flow indicate that the inflow penetrates further into the interior when the rotation rate is increased while the influx is kept constant. The numerical analysis of the non-linear vorticity equation confirms this for the parameters corresponding to the experiment. In addition, the photographs reveal eddies embedded on both sides of the main stream, particularly near the inflow region. These eddies are intensified and become uniform in size as the influx increases. It is pointed out that such eddies were actually observed near the Loop Current north of the Yucatan Straits.     

Multiple equilibrium states of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current

It has been established that idealized western boundary currents, which encounter a gap in their supporting boundary, will assume one of two dominant steady states: a loop current state and a gap leaping state, and that transitions between these states display hysteresis. However, a question of whether the idealized geometries considered to date apply to the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current (LC) remained. Here, the nonlinear potential vorticity advection-diffusions equations are solved, for Gulf of Mexico topography, using Newton’s method. We demonstrate that, in application to the LC in the Gulf of Mexico, the original conclusions do hold and additionally describe peculiarities of the more realistic steady states. The existence of our numerically calculated steady LC states in the actual Gulf of Mexico are supported through analysis of historical sea surface height data, and implications of our results for LC modeling and forecasting are discussed.

     

Distribution,sources and fates of floating oil residues in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico

Pelagic tar was monitored over a two-year period in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. A total of 416 surface and subsurface samples were collected during monthly cruises. Concentrations of pelagic tar found in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico were substantially higher than values reported for other areas around the world. Tar is primarily associated with the Gulf Loop Current, whereas continental shelf areas are relatively uncontaminated. Grounding of significant amounts of tar occurs primarily along the south-east coast of Florida, between Key West and Fort Pierce. Approximately 10–50% of the tar in the eastern Gulf is transported in from the Caribbean Sea via the Yucatan Straits. The remainder originates within the Gulf. Approximately half of the pelagic tar samples collected during the study appeared to have originated from tanker operations.     

Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico

Recent changes in ocean temperature have impacted marine ecosystem function globally. Nevertheless, the responses have depended upon the rate of change of temperature and the season when the changes occur, which are spatially variable. A rigorous statistical analysis of sea surface temperature observations over 25 years was used to examine spatial variability in overall and seasonal temperature trends within the wider Caribbean. The basin has experienced high spatial variability in rates of change of temperature. Most of the warming has been due to increases in summer rather than winter temperatures. However, warming was faster in winter in the Loop Current area and the south-eastern Caribbean, where the annual temperature ranges have contracted. Waters off Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas had a tendency towards cooling in winter, increasing the amplitude of annual temperature ranges. These detailed patterns can be used to elucidate ecological responses to climatic change in the region.     

Evaluation of Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment products on South Florida nested simulations with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

The South Florida Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (SoFLA-HYCOM) encompasses a variety of coastal regions (the broad Southwest Florida shelf, the narrow Atlantic Keys shelf, the shallow Florida Bay, and Biscayne Bay) and deep regions (the Straits of Florida), including Marine Protected Areas (the Florida Keys Marine Sanctuary and the Dry Tortugas Ecological Reserve). The presence of the strong Loop Current/Florida Current system and associated eddies connects the local and basin-wide dynamics. A multi-nested approach has been developed to ensure resolution of coastal-scale processes and proper interaction with the large scale flows. The simulations are free running and effects of data assimilation are introduced through boundary conditions derived from Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment products. The study evaluates the effects of boundary conditions on the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns by a nested model, applied on a dynamically and topographically complex shelf area. Independent (not assimilated) observations are employed for a quantitative validation of the numerical results. The discussion of the prevailing dynamics that are revealed in both modeled and observed patterns suggests the importance of topography resolution and local forcing on the inner shelf to middle shelf areas, while large scale processes are found to dominate the outer shelf flows. The results indicate that the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns in a coastal area that is characterized by complex topography and proximity to a large scale current system requires a dynamical downscaling approach, with simulations that are nested in a hierarchy of data assimilative outer models.     

On the processes that influence the transport and fate of Mississippi waters under flooding outflow conditions

The Mississippi River (MR) freshwater outflow is a major circulation forcing mechanism for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. We investigate the transport and fate of the brackish waters under flood conditions. The largest outflow in history (45,000 m³/s in 2011) is compared with the second largest outflow in the last 8 years (41,000 m³/s in 2008). Realistically forced simulations reveal the synergistic effect of enhanced discharge, winds, stratification of ambient shelf waters, and offshore circulation over the transport of plume waters. The strongest impact is attributed to the evolution of the Loop Current (LC) and associated frontal cyclonic eddies and anticyclonic rings, which exhibited distinctly different influence during the two study periods. The northward LC intrusion in the summer of 2011 weakened and blocked the buoyancy-driven downstream (westward) transport of brackish waters. The 2011 flood was thus characterized by upstream (eastward) flow and an extensive coverage of the Mississippi–Alabama–Florida shelf. An immediate response between the LC and the brackish offshore eastward spreading is computed during and after this historic event. The absence of a LC northward intrusion during the 2008 flood, in combination with wind effects, promotes downstream advection of MR waters towards the Louisiana–Texas shelf; large amounts of buoyant waters are also retained near the Delta, subject to local offshore advection under the synergistic action of LC-associated counter-rotating eddies.     

Numerical study of mean flow patterns in the South China Sea and the Luzon Strait

Previous investigations have suggested that wind stress curl, the balance of influx- and outflux-induced upwelling, as well as a positive vorticity source fed from the left flank of the Kuroshio are all possible mechanisms that contribute to a persistent cyclonic gyre in the South China Sea (SCS). Studies have also suggested that the loop current that forms from the Kuroshio intrusion in the Luzon Strait, similar to the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), has rarely been observed in the northern SCS. In this research, an idealized numerical model driven by annual mean wind stress was adopted to investigate the relative importance of dynamic processes that control the mean flow pattern of Kuroshio in the Luzon Strait and regulate circulation in the SCS. An analysis of results drawn from numerical experiments suggests that the three mechanisms are of approximately equal importance in the formation of the persistent cyclonic gyre in the northern SCS. Unlike the Gulf Stream which enters the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel, the two topographic ridges that align nearly meridionally in the Luzon Strait keep the Kuroshio flowing roughly northward without distinct intrusion into the SCS. Unsurprisingly, an anticyclonic loop current similar to the Gulf Stream pathway in the GOM was barely observed in the northern SCS.     

South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current) and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC). The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor). Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model’s rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean exchange of thermocline, intermediate and deep waters are constructed from an analysis of flows bound between isothermal and isobaric surfaces. This analysis shows how the return path of NADW is partitioned between a cold water route through the Drake Passage (6.5 Sv), a warm water route involving the Agulhas Current sheeding thermocline water westward (2.5 Sv), and a recirculation of intermediate water originating in the Indian Ocean (1.6 Sv).     

High-resolution ensemble forecasting for the Gulf of Mexico eddies and fronts

High-resolution models and realistic boundary conditions are necessary to reproduce the mesoscale dynamics of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). In order to achieve this, we use a nested configuration of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), where the Atlantic TOPAZ system provides lateral boundary conditions to a high-resolution (5 km) model of the GOM . However, such models cannot provide accurate forecasts of mesoscale variability, such as eddy shedding event, without data assimilation. Eddy shedding events involve the rapid growth of nonlinear instabilities that are difficult to forecast. The known sources of error are the initial state, the atmospheric condition, and the lateral boundary condition. We present here the benefit of using a small ensemble forecast (10 members) for providing confidence indices for the prediction, while using a data assimilation scheme based on optimal interpolation. Our set of initial states is provided by using different values of a data assimilation parameter, while the atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions are perturbed randomly. Changes in the data assimilation parameter appear to control the main position of the large features of the GOM in the initial state, whereas changes in the boundary conditions (lateral and atmospheric) appears to control the propagation of cyclonic eddies at their boundary. The ensemble forecast is tested for the shedding of Eddy Yankee (2006). The Loop Current and eddy fronts observed from ocean color and altimetry are almost always within the estimated positions from the ensemble forecast. The ensemble spread is correlated both in space and time to the forecast error, which implies that confidence indices can be provided in addition to the forecast. Finally, the ensemble forecast permits the optimization of a data assimilation parameter for best performance at a given forecast horizon.     

Estimates of Reynolds stress in a highly energetic shelf sea

In recent years the use of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) to estimate Reynolds stresses, using the so-called variance method, has become popular; and although there was great effort in studying the uncertainties on this technique, there were no reports in the main literature of its validity using independent measurements. This work reports on the comparison of ADCP and Acoustic Current Velocimeter (ADV) estimates of Reynolds stresses. The comparison of the ADCP and ADV is encouraging during periods when no strong waves were present with both the explained variance of 0.8 and the slope of the regression being 0.97. Nevertheless, when strong waves are present the method breaks down and the comparison between ADCP and ADV is very poor with R² =0.04.     

Sea level variability in the Gulf of Mexico since 1900 and its link to the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Strait flows

The long-term variability of sea level and surface flows in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is studied using global monthly sea level reconstruction (RecSL) for 1900–2015. The study explored the long-term relation between the dynamics of the GOM and inflows/outflows through the Yucatan Channel (YC) and the Florida Straits (FS). The results show a century-long trend of increased mean velocity and variability in the Loop Current (LC); however, no significant upward trend was found in the YC and FS flows, only increased variability. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of sea surface height found spatial patterns dominated by variations in the LC and temporal variations on time scales ranging from a few months to multidecadal. The time evolution of each EOF mode of sea level is correlated with the velocity of either the LC, the YC, or the FS or some combination of the different flows. The mean sea level difference between the GOM and the northwestern Caribbean Sea was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with unusually high differences during the 1970s when the NAO index was low and the Atlantic Ocean circulation was weak. Extreme peaks in SL difference coincide with the extension of the LC and the seasonal eddy shedding pattern. The observed seasonal cycle in the extension area of the LC as obtained from 20 years of altimeter data is significantly correlated (R = 0.63; confidence level = 98%) with the seasonal YC flow obtained from 116 years of the RecSL data. However, the same LC extension record had lower correlation (R = 0.45; confidence level = 90%) with the observed YC transport obtained from direct moored measurements over ~ 5 years, indicating the need for much longer measurements, since the LC extension and the YC flow are strongly affected by interannual and decadal variations. The study demonstrates the usefulness of even a coarse-resolution reconstruction for studies of regional ocean variability and climate change over longer time scales than current direct observations allow.

     

Seasonal changes in larval fish assemblages in a semi-enclosed sea (Gulf of California)

The northern Gulf of California (NGC) is characterized by seasonal hydrography and circulation (cyclonic in summer and anticyclonic in winter), by intense tidal mixing in the midriff archipelago region (MAR), and by coastal upwelling on the eastern side from autumn to spring. We examined changes in larval fish assemblages (LFAs) in relation with hydrography and circulation during both phases of the seasonal circulation, as indicators of changes in the pelagic ecosystem. A canonical correspondence analysis defined LFAs (r>0.70), which were related with: (i) the coastal current on the mainland shelf, (ii) the central eddy and (iii) the MAR. In the early cyclonic phase, when the temperature and stratification were increasing and the coastal current was starting, demersal (Gobulus crescentalis, Lythrypnus dalli) and mesopelagic species (Benthosema panamense) dominated the NGC. The highest larval abundance was in the Current LFA area and the lowest in the MAR LFA area. In the mature cyclonic phase, the larval abundance increased in the NGC and species characteristic of eastern boundary current systems such as Opisthonema libertate and Engraulis mordax displaced the demersal species and became dominant, together with B. panamense in the Current LFA area; the latter species dominated in the Eddy LFA area. In the early anticyclonic phase, the direction of the coastal current reversed and the temperature and larval abundance decreased. E. mordax and B. panamense larvae continued dominating the NGC with higher abundance in the MAR than in the Current and Eddy LFA areas. In the mature anticyclonic phase, E. mordax larvae dominated in the Current and the Eddy LFA areas with the highest abundance in the former, while M. productus larvae (an eastern boundary current species) dominated in the Eddy LFA area. Results showed that in the NGC, the dramatically seasonal and predictable hydrographic and circulation features trigger the seasonal spawning of the dominant species. The biological richness of the coastal current area, in both circulation phases, suggested that this area has an important role in the pelagic ecosystem functionality of the NGC.