Data-based forecasting of beach volumes on monthly to yearly timescales

Data-based methods for forecasting beach volumes are tested using ground-measured bathymetry from Duck, North Carolina, comprising 26 profiles, 20 year duration and one-month resolution. Derived beach volume time series show weak seasonal and strong event signals. The forecasting methods used are: Holt–Winters (standard and modified), three types of linear regression, and a default forecast in which the latest measurement persists unchanged into the future. Improved forecast accuracies are obtained by two modifications to Holt–Winters, involving an autocorrelation correction and long-term trend-damping, and by smoothing the fitting data using running medians or wavelet approximations. Beach volume forecasts are tested mainly at monthly intervals up to 12 months ahead, with further tests at up to 36 months ahead. Overall, modified Holt–Winters performs best and the default forecast second-best. With an added artificial seasonal signal, modified Holt–Winters outperforms the other methods more substantially.     

Significant wave height forecasting using wavelet fuzzy logic approach

Wave heights and periods are the significant inputs for coastal and ocean engineering applications. These applications may require to obtain information about the sea conditions in advance. This study aims to propose a forecasting scheme that enables to make forecasts up to 48 h lead time. The combination of wavelet and fuzzy logic approaches was employed as a forecasting methodology. Wavelet technique was used to separate time series into its spectral bands. Subsequently, these spectral bands were estimated individually by fuzzy logic approach. This combination of techniques is called wavelet fuzzy logic (WFL) approach. In addition to WFL method, fuzzy logic (FL), artificial neural networks (ANN), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods were employed to the same data set for comparison purposes. It is seen that WFL outperforms those methods in all cases. The superiority of the WFL in model performances becomes very clear especially in higher lead times such as 48 h. Significant wave height and average wave period series obtained from buoys located off west coast of US were used to train and test the proposed models.     

Longshore sediment transport estimation using a fuzzy inference system

Accurate prediction of longshore sediment transport in the nearshore zone is essential for control of shoreline erosion and beach evolution. In this paper, a hybrid Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), CERC, Walton–Bruno (WB) and Van Rijn (VR) formulae are used to predict and model longshore sediment transport in the surf zone. The architecture of ANFIS consisted of three inputs (breaking wave height), (breaking angle), (wave period) and one output (longshore sediment transport rate). For statistical comparison of predicted and measured sediment transport, bias, root mean square error and scatter index are used. The longshore sediment transport rate (LSTR) and wave characteristics at a 4 km-long beach on the central west coast of India are used as case studies. The CERC, WB and VR methods are also applied to the same data. Results indicate that the errors of the ANFIS model in predicting wave parameters are less than those of the empirical formulas. The scatter index of the CERC, WB and VR methods in predicting LSTR is 51.9%, 27.9% and 22.5%, respectively, while the scatter index of the ANFIS model in the prediction of LSTR is 17.32%. A comparison of results reveals that the ANFIS model provides higher accuracy and reliability for LSTR estimation than the other techniques.     

海南岛新海湾海滩地貌状态与海岸泥沙纵向运动特征

根据１９９０年现场调查及前期观察资料，论述了海南岛新海弧形海湾不同岸段由主要动力驱动过程和海滩地貌结构组成的４种海滩地貌状态，为Ⅰ．隐蔽段消散类型，Ⅱ．脊－沟体系与低潮台地类型，Ⅲ．韵律海滩与砂坝类型，Ⅳ．开敞段消散类型。应用泥沙粒级参数概率模型分析近岸泥沙纵向运动趋势，结果表明，常波况下，沿岸泥沙存在双向运动，湾顶海滩为汇集地带，泥沙纵向运动主趋势为西南向；高能条件下，海岸北段可出现北向泥沙运动     

基于两种半分析算法的水体吸收系数反演

本文基于42组不同年份不同季节获得的遥感反射率、水体各组分吸收系数的实测数据,对QAA（Quasi-Analytical Algorithm）和GSM（Garver-Siegel-Maritorena）算法在寡营养的南海和富营养的福建沿岸两种不同类型水体的吸收系数反演进行了检验。以水样测量值为参考,两种算法在本研究水体中的反演成效与他人在其它水域的研究结果相当。QAA算法在南海的反演成效高于福建沿岸水体。对于443 nm的总吸收系数（a443 ）,南海的对数均方根误差（RMSE ）为0.046,平均相对误差为7.9%,对数平均偏差为0;福建沿岸水体的对数均方根误差（RMSE ）为0.194,平均相对误差为30.6%,对数平均偏差为-0.167 。GSM算法在两类水体的反演成效类似,A443 之RMSE和平均相对误差,南海分别为0.161和27.7%,福建沿岸分别为0.149和32.1%,但从A443的对数平均偏差值看,其在南海反演值低于实测值（对数平均偏差为-0.142 ）,在福建沿岸则略呈高于实测值（对数平均偏差为0.016）。两种算法中的部分经验参数与实测值之间的差异是产生反演误差的主要原因,为了提高反演精度,对算法中经验参数的更进一步区域化调整可能是必要的。     

厦门岛海滩剖面对9914号台风大浪波动力的快速响应

根据 9914号台风发生前后对厦门岛滨岸海滩剖面地形的重复测量结果及有关台风要素和潮位的实测资料 ,探讨了台风袭击厦门岛期间海滩的变形特征和侵蚀状态。分析得出 ,海滩地形受台风暴浪冲击普遍发生急剧变化。横向冲淤变形以东岸海滩为最剧烈 :滩肩蚀退可达 2 5m ;滩面呈上冲下淤 ,上段和滩肩的单宽冲蚀量达 30m3 /m ;下段单宽淤积量达 17m3 /m ;剖面类型由滩肩式断面向沙坝式断面转变。这种变形特点是在台风大浪波动力和潮位暴涨的双重作用下造成的。台风期间 ,沿岸输沙能力以北岸最高 ,南岸次之 ,东岸较低 ;且自南岸到东岸 ,随着沿岸输沙量减少 ,横向变形相应有增大的趋势。这是9914号台风以偏东方向袭击厦门的结果。表明不同方向海岸岸滩地形对同一台风大浪波动力作用具有不同响应特征。     

琼州海峡南岸海岸动力地貌研究

岬湾相间的琼州海峡南岸在海岸动力条件作用下,岸滩发生侵蚀或堆积,特别是南岸中部的南渡江三角洲沿岸岸滩演变剧烈。该文从海岸动力地貌的角度,对琼州海峡南岸的海岸动力特征、泥沙运动以及岸滩演变进行分析。根据海峡南部三维潮流场数值模拟结果,结合经验公式初步分析潮流引起的泥沙运移速率和方向,得到岸外水域总的泥沙运移趋势为从西向东。根据波浪动力计算分析沿岸泥沙运移,探讨沙质岸滩的动态与地貌演变之间的关系,得出海峡南岸海岸地貌演变与盛行的NE和NNE向风浪有密切关系,岸滩的演变过程主要受制于这两个方向的风浪及其引起的泥沙沿岸运移。     

南海北部沿岸冬季水位亚潮波动特征研究

用时间序列分析方法研究了南海北部水位亚潮波动的基本特征。结果表明南海北部冬季水位亚潮波动能量以福建南部沿岸最强,广东沿岸仅为台湾海峡南部的一半左右,但二者具有相似的谱特征。各站的功率谱峰均出现在3.2,6.4,3.6和2.3d频带。其中3.2和6.4d波动能量最强。此外,在珠江口附近还有10.7d的较弱谱峰。与东海沿岸冬季情况类似,南海北部沿岸水位波动有很高的空间相关性,说明冬季我国东南沿海的亚潮波动受某一共同机制的控制。分析还表明水位波动一致地从东北向西南传播,但在不同岸段传播特征有相当差异。     

Sea level change and beach process — A case study in south Zhejiang beach -

This paper describes changes in sea level off the coast of China in history and at present. The evidence concerning low sea level during the last glacial phase, Holocene marine transgression which was discovered from sea bottom in East China Sea and China's bordering seas, and their adjacent coastal areas, where, by drilling, relic sediment, peat deposite, and mollusc shell fossils have been obtained, and their dates are deduced through measurement of radiocarbon (C¹⁴), identified that low sea level about 15000 years ago stood in the depth of 150 m below the present level in East China Sea, and that the subsequent transgression carried the sea up to the present sea level 6000 years ago, when the present China's coast and other continent's coasts were outlined. Due to a number of factors, the sea level oscillates seasonally in the border sea of China. Averagely speaking, the annual range of the seasonal changes in sea level is about 35 m off the south Zhejiang coast, where the highest value of 20 cm occurs in September, and the lowest of-15 cm occurs in March. The reason may be mainly due to the seasonal variations of climate and river run-off, as well as the Taiwan Warm Current. Similar seasonal oscillations in sea level also occur in Bohai Gulf, Yellow Sea, East China Sea and the South China Sea. The beach process of south Zhejiang is strongly affected by the seasonal oscillations in sea level. The width of beach is 4 to 6 km, the slope is approximately in 1 : 1000. If the sea level rises or falls 1 cm, the beach submergence or emergence is led to be about 10 m in width. As a result, the relative equilibrium of beach will be changed by the seasonal oscillations in sea level.     

烟台夹河口近40年来环境变化的地貌响应

采用遥感解译和地貌调查相结合的方法对由于上游水利工程建设使夹河入海流量和泥沙量大幅度减少所引起的地貌响应进行了分析。结果表明，20世纪70年代以前，河口区以堆积状态为主，河口、海滩属建造期；70～90年代，河口区地貌基本保持；中淤平衡，但湿地大面积缩小；90年代以后，河口区逐渐进入侵蚀状态，河口湿地趋于消失，沙嘴不断后退，海滩地貌也随之发生一定的变化。     

河北省沙质海岸侵蚀灾害和防治对策

河北省沙质海岸是渤海海岸侵蚀灾害最严重的区段之一,海岸侵蚀主要表现于海滩沙粗化,滩肩迅速变窄,滩坡变陡,基岩裸露的比率增多.岸线蚀退率达1.5～3.5m/a,严重制约了海滩旅游事业.整治海难,刻不容缓.采取岸外潜坝和丁坝群等人工建筑物和大量补沙相结合的海滩养护方法应是当前最迫切、最科学和最实际的方法,只有南段沙丘和沙坝-泻湖岸段可采用植树种草的生物学方法护岸.     

Sea-level, sediment supply and coastal changes: Examples from the coast of Ireland

Sediment supply and pre-existing shoreline morphology are crucial factors in controlling coastal changes due to sea-level rise. Using examples from both southeast and northeast Ireland, it can be shown that sea-level change may trigger a sequence of events which leads to both static and dynamic shoreline equilibrium. Cliff erosion and longshore sediment movement in east Co. Wexford has led to injection of sediment onto the shelf, and the growth, under both wave and tide regimes, of linear offshore shoals. These shoals now control the pattern of shoreline erosion and provide a template for possible stepwise evolution of the coast under any future sea-level rise. In contrast, the nearby coast of south Co. Wexford comprises a series of coarse clastic barriers moving monotonously onshore, via overwash processes. Here the behavior of the barrier is conditioned by the antecedent morphology of both the beach face and stream outlet bedforms. Finally, the rock platform coast of Co. Antrim presents a far more resistant shoreline to incident marine processes, yet even here there is strong evidence of present process control over so-called ‘raised’ platforms and embayments. It is concluded that coastal sediment supply and dynamics, together with coastal morphology and its interaction with waves, present a far more complex variety of sea-level indicators than is normally acknowledged.     

Establishing uniform longshore currents in a large-scale sediment transport facility

A large-scale laboratory facility for conducting research on surf-zone sediment transport processes has been constructed at the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center. Successful execution of sediment transport experiments, which attempt to replicate some of the important coastal processes found on long straight beaches, requires a method for establishing the proper longshore current. An active pumping and recirculation system comprised of 20 independent pumps and pipelines is used to control the cross-shore distribution of the mean longshore current. Pumping rates are adjusted in an iterative manner to converge toward the proper settings, based on measurements along the beach. Two recirculation criteria proposed by Visser [Coastal Eng. 15 (1991) 563] were also used, and they provided additional evidence that the proper total longshore flow rate in the surf zone was obtained. The success of the external recirculation system and its operational procedure, and the degree of longshore uniformity achieved along the beach, are the subjects of this paper. To evaluate the performance of the recirculation system, and as a precursor to sediment transport experiments, two comprehensive test series were conducted on a concrete beach with straight and parallel contours (1:30 slope), one using regular waves and the other using irregular waves. In the regular wave case, the wave period was 2.5 s and the average wave height at breaking was approximately 0.25 m. In the irregular wave case, the peak wave period was 2.5 s and the significant breaking wave height was approximately 0.21 m. The longshore current recirculation system proved to be very effective in establishing uniform mean longshore currents along the beach in both cases. This facility and the data presented here are unique for the following reasons: (1) the high cross-shore resolution of the recirculation system and the ease with which changes can be made to the longshore current distribution, (2) the degree of longshore uniformity achieved as a percentage of the length of the basin (even near the downdrift boundary), (3) the scale of the wave conditions generated, and (4) the relatively gentle beach slope used in the experiments (compared to previous laboratory studies of the longshore current). Measured data are provided in an appendix for use in theoretical studies and numerical model development and validation.     

南渡江三角洲海岸泥沙纵向运移与岸滩演变的响应

南渡三角洲沿岸在盛行ＮＮＥ向波浪等动力条件的作用下,泥沙产生纵向运移,岸滩遭受侵蚀或堆积,岸滩演变剧烈。本文利用基于网格的波注折射绕射模型,分析南渡江三角洲海岸波浪动力过程、破波带波能与辐射应力分布及其引起的沿岸泥沙纵向运称。浴海岸动力学地貌的角度,通过三角洲沿岸波浪动力特征、泥沙运动的分析,探讨沙质岸滩的动态与地貌演变。     

The distribution and behaviour of tar balls along the Israeli coast

A fortnightly sampling of tar balls on six beaches along the Israeli coastline between 14 April 1975 and 25 June 1976 showed that the mean content of tar during that period was 3625 g m^?1 of beach front. The northern and central parts of the coast were significantly more polluted than the southern part. Between July 1975 and February 1976 the mean tar quantity decreased continuously from 5635 to 1344 g m^?1.A comparison of tar quantities on the Israeli beaches with those of other beaches in the world showed that the Israeli beaches are more polluted than those of the west Atlantic coast, are as polluted as other beaches on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, and are less polluted than the beaches of Alexandria, Egypt, and Paphos, Cyprus. It is suggested that the tar content on the beach is related to the degree of oil pollution in the sea. The closer a beach is to an oil shipping lane or an oil dumping site, the heavier it is polluted.During storms, beach tar balls are pushed by the waves to the back of the beach or, in the case of a cliffed coast, are carried along the shore by the longshore current. When the tar balls reach a gap in the cliff (such as an estuary), they are carried inland by the storm waves. There the tar may become buried or dry, shrink and break into small particles which are then dispersed by the wind.     

沙质海岸波浪动床模型设计—毛里塔尼亚友谊港下游冲刷试验模型

本文结合毛里塔尼亚友谊港下游冲刷模型的试验研究探讨了海岸波浪动床模型的相似律和试验波浪要素的确定。作者推导获得了同时满足波浪作用下岸滩剖面冲淤相似、沿程冲淤部位相似、泥沙起动相似和沉降相似的综合相似比尺公式：λρｓ－ρ＝λ＾１／３ｌ．λ＾１／６Ｄ；λｄ＝（λＤ／λｔ）＾２／３解决了波浪冲刷动床模型的基本相似问题和砂的选砂问题。对于常浪向与强浪向不一致的海岸，作者提出了采用综合考虑波高、波周期（或波     

Long-term variation of longshore sediment transport

For planning and designing a new harbour located on the sand coast of Nouakchott, Mauretania, the Bijker formula was adopted to compute the longshore sediment transport. The shoreline is nearly straight at this site. The beach is composed of fine sand with a median grain diameter of D₅₀ = 200 μm. The beach slope is about 1:20. Wave observation data from 1976 to 1982 were used for the formula. Computed results show a clear variation of annual transport. The ratio maximum:mean value is 1.31, and the ratio maximum: minimum is 1.89 in seven years.Probability analysis indicates that the long-term variation of the longshore transport follows the Gumbel distribution. Accordingly, the formulae which can predict the probable and most disadvantageous total sediment transport values for multiple years blocked by a littoral barrier are derived.     

EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS OF NORTHERN JIANGSU COASTAL ZONE AND A DYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF NORTHERN JIANGSU SHOAL

The main portion of the northern Jiangsu coastal zone is the silty plain coast. The dynamic equlibrium has been broken continuously since the Quaternary, especially in the Holocene and the historical periods. In 1855 the Huanghe River (Yellow River) changed its channel entering into sea through the Bohai Sea. We find that the beach strand was then silting up intensely in the north of Qinggang but the coast was caving in and the beach was expanding in the south of Qinggang-. Multiple shoals and submarine ridges off the coast converged into Qionggang and formed a unique coastal landshaft. In this paper we describe the evolutionary process of the northern Jiangsu coastal zone and discuss the formative conditions for the northern Jiangsu shoal. Finally, a dynamic equilibrium model for the northern Jiangsu shoal is presented.     

Application of longshore transport equations to the Andhra coast,east coast of India

Ship-reported waves published in the Indian Daily Weather Report are compiled for a period of 16 years and are used for the estimation of the longshore transport rate. Using the two well known longshore transport equations, viz., the Shore Protection Manual equation and the Komar and Inman equation, the longshore transport rate at Visakhapatnam beach is computed and the values are compared with earlier studies. Based on the inference that the Shore Protection Manual equation yields a better estimate for this region, the same equation is used for the estimation of the longshore transport rate along the Andhra coast. This study shows that the general direction of longshore transport is towards northeast during March to October and southwest during November to February. The longshore transport rate is high during the southwest monsoon period from June to September. A higher sediment transport rate is observed for the coastline oriented at 80 degrees east of north. The annual net transport is found to be quite low at the coastal segments near Ramaypatnam, Machilipatnam and Sacremento Light House, whereas it is found to be high near Nizampatnam, Gollapalem and Narasapur.     

Beach response to a fixed sand bypassing system

Indian River Inlet is located at roughly the mid-point of the Atlantic coast of Delaware and connects the ocean to two Delaware inland bays. Jetties constructed in 1940 have maintained the inlet for navigation purposes but have also acted as a barrier to net northerly alongshore sediment transport causing downdrift erosion. A mobile, land-based bypassing system was initiated in 1990 in an effort to counteract this erosion. Beach profile data from 1985 (pre-bypassing) until 2008 are used to investigate the effect of the sand bypassing system on beaches adjacent to the inlet. The downdrift beach experienced horizontal shoreline erosion between 10 and 60 m during the pre-bypassing period but accreted 10–20 m during the bypassing period. The mean shoreline location on the updrift beach during bypassing is 10–20 m landward (erosion) of its position during the pre-bypassing period. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) amplitudes from analyses performed on mean-removed elevation surfaces during the periods of highest bypassed volume (average of 83% of design rate) showed that the influence of the bypassing system on the downdrift beach extends to about 1500 m of the inlet. An EOF analysis showed that different morphologic responses were evident following the initiation of bypass operations. Temporal variations of shoreline and beach morphology were correlated to the temporal variations in bypassing rates on the downdrift beach only. The downdrift beach response was greatest near the inlet for larger bypassing volumes. Correlation in these instances occurred with a roughly 1-year time lag suggesting that the beach quickly redistributes the bypassed sand. EOF amplitude and shoreline response are weakly correlated to bypassed volumes when the system bypassed smaller volumes (average of 56% of design rate) of sand suggesting that there is a minimum bypassing rate, regardless of yearly variability, below which the effect on the downdrift beach is obscured.