江苏地区数字地热正常动态及震例初步研究

地震地热前兆的观测与研究是一项具有特色的短临预报新方法,并在地震预报的实践中取得了一定的实效。江苏省地震局在“九五”期间建立了一批数字化地热综合观测台, 积累了丰富的观测资料并记录到数个地热异常震例。一年来在边观测边研究的过程中发现数字化地热观测资料具有信息量大、观测精度高、正常动态稳定、异常易于识别、映震灵敏等优点。并对数字地热资料进行了充分的使用和多种方法分析, 在研究正常动态特征和影响因素的基础上,总结异常识别和异常分析方法, 并通过对典型震例的研究探索地热异常与地震之间的关系。     

由井-含水层系统的水位动态反演含水层体应变

以孔隙弹性理论和水文地质学原理为基础,给出井水位波动与含水层介质体应变变化关系的数学表达式,结合固体潮理论分析了井—含水层系统水位潮汐波动对体应变固体潮的响应特征,用水位潮汐波来反演含水层体应变的变化,将反演结果与体应变实测资料得到的结果进行对比,发现二者有较好的一致性,说明用水位潮汐波来反演含水层体应变的方法是可行的,它为了解含水层的水文地质特性、体应变的变化及探索地震前兆提供了借鉴。     

白家疃井地热动态与地震关系初步研究

分析研究６年的地热试验观测资料的结果表明，白家疃井地热异常信息丰富，地热异常与２００ｋｍ范围内，ＭＬ≥４．０地震，有较好的对应关系；１９８９年１０月１８日大同地震前地热动态有明显的中期，短期，临震异常显示。     

地下水动态映震机制的试验与观测研究

本文根据一系列室内外试验与观测研究结果,论述了震前地下水位动态异常信息形成的四个基本环节:①地壳应力活动与含水层应力状态的变化,②含水层变形破坏与孔隙压力的变化;③孔压变化信息在井—含水层系统中的传递;④孔压变化信息在井孔地下水动态中的表现。在此基础上,提出了地下水动态映震特性的若干观点。     

沧13井地热异常跟踪分析

沧13井数字化地热资料自2010年12月13日开始出现上升异常变化,之后高值持续.在排除环境因素无明显的变化外,通过一系列的分析方法,诸如地热与水位、气压相关资料的对比分析,地热变化与观测系统的电信号的相关分析,调取分析存储的原始记录.综合分析认为：该地热异常变化不是地震前兆异常.     

识别地下水超采区井水位异常性质的理论与方法

长期过量开采地下水,使地下水位持续下降、水质发生变化,动水位观测井断流;地面沉降造成井管上窜,观测管路系统被损坏等,这些现象对地震地下流体观测地震前兆异常的正确判断带来很大困难。应用水文地质理论与方法,分析含水层的水均衡状态、应力-应变状态及其与水位动态的关系,初步探讨了超采区井水位异常性质的理论与方法。结果表明,根据井孔所在区水位下降漏斗的扩散特征,结合以上所提到的理论和方法,依据资料多年变化特征,可以较准确地判断异常的性质。研究结果有助于区分单一集中抽水与长期地下水超采对水位观测的影响,有助于正确识别超采区水位前兆异常,有助于地震分析预报水平的提高     

大姚地热动态特征分析

通过大姚高精度水温观测井水地质、井孔条件的分析，震例观测资料、实验观测数据的处理，以及井水水质分析结果，表明大姚水温周期性变化的突出位置是井深75m左右，根本原因是该地层石膏脉稳定释热，含水层热水与井内冷水混合过程中，在通道内形成钙盐类沉淀物（如CaSO4CaCO3），堵塞对流通道，含水层内外压差突破被阻塞通道，热水反复侵入井内，便形成水温周期性变化。地震的孕育、发生和调整过程，由于应力场作用，产生附加地热场，水温基值发生变化，周期畸变或消失，这种附加地热动态是可以恢复的。所以认为大姚地热动态是井区特殊地层地热信息的反映。     

白家疃地区地热观测分析

介绍了白家疃地区的水文地质概况。利用二阶差分法处理了白家疃地震台地热观测井7年的地热观测资料，在时间域中提取出较为可信的地震前兆信息。探讨了地热异常变化对地震发生的影响。     

川—51温泉水温动态特征与地震

川—51温泉(理塘毛垭温泉)是全国地震地下水动态观测网的观测点之一。十多年来在该点上所取得的资料表明,对较大范围的地震有较好的异常显示,为揭示该点水温能对应地震的原因,更好地开展地下的综合观测。利用这十多年的资料进行分析、研究和探讨地热动态特征与地震的关系。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地下流体异常特征

通过对青海省水氡共7个台项观测资料及4个前兆数字化观测点的12个测项（水氡、水位、水温或地热）观测资料的分析，初步2001年11月14日青海省昆仑山口西8．1级地震前存在部分异常，但异常的比例不高，未见明显趋势性异常。格尔木新建数字化地热仪观测到了较突出的同震效应。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Information for authors

正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in both basic and applied research.     

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND TRAINING CENTER ON EROSION AND SEDIMENTATION(IRTCES)

正Director:Shangfu Kuang,China Vice-directors:Chunhong Hu,China Duihu Ning,China Guangquan Liu,China The International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation(IRTCES)was jointly set up by the Government of China and UNESCO on July 21,1984.It aims at the promotion of international exchange of knowledge and cooperation in the studies of erosion and     

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Dynamic process-response model of river channel development

Feedback mechanisms, which operate upstream through drawdown and backwater effects and downstream through sediment discharge are responsible for channel evolution. By combining these mechanisms with channel processes it euables a dynamic process-response model to be developed to simulate the initial evolution of straight gravel-bed channels. When erosion commences on a land surface, sediment entrained in the headwater reach by hydraulic action is selectively transported, deposited and reworked. This produces a damped oscillation between degradation and aggradation as the channel and valley respond to spatial and temporal variations in sediment calibre and hydraulic conditions. The initial cut and fill phases are responsible for valley incision and floodplain development while secondary and subsequent activity can produce river terraces. Eventually sediment entrainment in the headwaters declines as slopes are reduced. Subsequent channel evolution is relatively insignificant because it is dependent on local weathering activity producing material that can be transported on declining slopes. Therefore landforms produced during the initial phase of development, when local weathering was non-limiting, dominate the landscape.