Lightning casualties and damages in China from 1997 to 2009

Lightning-related fatalities, injuries and property damages reported in China from 1997 to 2009 are summarized by using the National Lightning Hazards Database. Therefore, characteristics of the incidents including 5,033 deaths, 4,670 injuries and 61,614 damage reports are analyzed. For the spatial distribution of lightning disasters in China, the eastern costal and southern areas have more frequent lightning disasters than the western areas. Lightning disasters mainly occur in summer months from July to September, while fewer damages occur in winter months from October to March, which correlate significantly with the temporal variability of lightning frequency in China. Lightning-related casualties and damages in China have increased for the period of 1997 to 2007 and then began to decrease since 2008. The national fatalities and injuries per million people per year are 0.31 and 0.28, respectively. Rural people account for 51 and 29% of all lightning fatalities and injuries, which makes residents in agricultural and rural area the major lightning victims. Characteristics of lightning disasters and correlative factors are also studied, including hazard-affected industries and locations. The results show that civil industry has the worst property loss and farmland is the largest category in lightning-caused casualty locations.     

An updated assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury risk in Canada: 2002–2017

Cloud-to-ground lightning is a common and dangerous natural atmospheric hazard in southern Canada. Previous research conducted by the author and colleagues, using data from 1994 to 2003, estimated that lightning directly or indirectly kills 9–10 people and injures 92–164 more each year in Canada. Repeating the analysis using data from the same government agency and media sources for the 2002–2017 period, the author found that lightning-related mortality decreased to 2–3 deaths per year, roughly 0.08 deaths per million population. An average of 180 lightning-related injuries each year (5.3 per million population) was estimated for the same period, slightly greater than the maximum documented in the 1994–2003 analysis. About half of the drop in mortality between periods may be attributed to the reduction in reported deaths associated with lightning-ignited municipal fires since 2000. The remainder may be due to a combination of greater availability and use of communication technology, faster emergency response and medical treatment, and increased public awareness of lightning hazards and safety. Further research is required to explain why lightning-related injury rates have remained stable; better understand the interaction of technological, behavioral and other factors; and to determine the efficacy of past and potential future safety interventions.

     

Risk of injury and death from lightning in Northern Malawi

Rates of lightning mortality in communities on the western shore of Lake Malawi are higher than any other reported rate in the world: 419 strike victims per million people per annum and 84 deaths per million per annum. To document the background to this phenomenon, we conducted comprehensive household interviews with surviving victims and witnesses of every case of lightning strike in seven administrative areas around Nkhata Bay, Malawi. We find that the consequential lightning strikes are significantly more common in the rainy season and during the morning. Among those victims struck by lightning, there is an average ratio of approximately one death to four injuries, which is substantially higher than the commonly accepted ratio of 1:10. Children and adults are at equal risk of being struck. If struck, the probability of death is greater when the victim is outside in the open or outside under cover than indoors under a tin or thatched roof, but is unaffected by different kinds of footwear or whether it is raining. Reported explanations for strikes often center on witchcraft or other forms of social conflict. Our findings extend the study of consequential lightning strikes in the developing world and highlight cultural factors associated with this hazard. We end with recommendations for reducing the risk of lightning for rural populations.     

我国雷电灾害及相关因素分析

为了更好地揭示雷电灾害的时空分布规律和成因机制过程,在1997—2006年全国雷电灾害数据库和星载闪电探测数据的基础上,分析研究了雷电灾害及相关因素的特征,包括雷电灾情、孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体及其相互作用,得到以下一些结果:①雷灾事故数、雷灾人员伤亡数与我国不同地区的致灾因子(闪电活动)、承灾体(人口和经济发展现况)成正相关;雷电灾情不同类型与承灾体类型(城乡人口比例、经济发展现况)有密切关系;②我国雷电灾情和闪电活动的时间特征是紧密相关的,同时雷电灾情的时间特征与人们的作息时间相关;③不同的孕灾环境下造成雷电伤害人员的方式特征不同,雷击死亡人数在农田最多,而受伤人数在建构筑物内最多;④80%的雷灾伤亡人员事故只涉及1~2人的生命安全,其中1人遭受雷击的占总事件的61%;⑤重大雷灾伤亡事件直接与承灾体的脆弱性有关。     

Lightning fatalities in Swaziland: 2000–2007

An investigation is undertaken to analyze the human lightning fatalities in Swaziland. A total of 123 victims of lightning-related death were identified from the records of the Royal Swaziland Police Service and the local printed media for the period 2000–2007. An annual average fatality rate of 15.5 people per million, the highest recorded rate in the world, was obtained. The results also reveal that 66% were male, most (67%) of them were within the 10–39 age group with an average age of 28 years. Lightning fatalities occurred from September to May mainly in the afternoon (1400–1800 h). Deaths most commonly occurred indoors inside rural houses (17%), whilst walking (16%) and under a tree (14%). The incidents resulted in multiple fatalities in 22% of the cases with an average of 1.4 casualties per incident. The need for awareness campaigns, protection measures and detailed investigation is highlighted.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of road traffic accident fatality in Bangladesh integrating newspaper accounts and gridded population data

Road traffic accidents pose serious threats to human lives and often cause premature deaths, disabilities, and socioeconomic impacts. The objective of this study is to analyze the fatal road traffic accidents in Bangladesh by performing a space–time characterization of fatality rates involving an innovative newspaper-based method in concert with gridded population data to construct a road traffic fatality database. Kernel density estimation, temporal data plots and space–time pattern mining tools that combine the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic with the Mann–Kendall test are used to describe spatio-temporal hotspots/coldspots and trends. Results show different patterns between the urban and rural areas of Bangladesh and higher rates of road traffic accidents occur in the metropolitan regions (Dhaka) and in a northern region centered on Sirajganj area. Most of the road traffic accidents took place in between 9:00 and 12:00 pm while the accident rates remain low between 12:00 and 3:00 am. Spacetime analysis results reveal a core region of persistently high rates along with four smaller regions with high and intensifying rates. The output of this study could be useful to reduce road traffic fatalities, injuries, increase awareness, and adopt necessary interventions for public safety through integrating both the local, regional, and central level decision makers of public transportation policy and issues in Bangladesh. The approach has potential to be translated to other developing countries.     

青海高原2008-2016年云地闪特征分析

利用2008-2016年青海省云地闪监测网资料,分析了云地闪特征。结果表明：2008-2016年青海高原云地闪次数呈现逐年增加的趋势;各年正云地闪比例在10.1%~19.8%之间,平均正云地闪比例为15.0%,且春季和秋季明显高于夏季;总云地闪平均电流强度为30.3 kA,正云地闪平均电流强度为50.1 kA,负云地闪平均电流强度为27.2 kA;负云地闪月平均峰值电流呈现双峰双谷的分布特征,正云地闪月平均峰值电流呈现单峰单谷的特征;正负云地闪电流强度频次分布均呈现正态分布的特征;云地闪电流强度幅值频次累积概率分布服从IEEE Std 1243-1997推荐的雷电流累积概率分布模型;云地闪平均陡度为7.3 kA·us^-1,正云地闪平均陡度为7.8 kA·us^-1,负云地闪平均陡度为7.2 kA·us^-1;云地闪在夏季（6-8月）发生较为频繁,占总闪电的81.0%,其次是秋季（9-11月）,占总闪电的13.5%,夏季和秋季云地闪电占全年闪电的94.5%;云地闪的日变化呈现单峰单谷的特征;总云地闪年均最大密度达10.4次·km^-2·a^-1,正云地闪年均最大密度达2.1次·km^-2·a^-1,负云地闪年均最大密度达10.3次·km^-2·a^-1,总云地闪和负云地闪的密度高值区在西宁、大通和湟中一带,正云地闪的密度高值区在玛沁和同德一带。     

Flood events, fatalities and damages in India from 1978 to 2006

High temporal and spatial variability of rainfall qualifies India to be highly vulnerable to floods. Recurring floods of various magnitudes play havoc with the lives and property of the people, leading to unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation, thwarting and retarding the overall development of the country. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the types and trends in terms of flood events, frequency, number of people killed, injured, missing and economic damage both in space and time on the basis of a nationwide database published by India Meteorological Department, Pune, from 1978 to 2006. Analysis of these long-term data has revealed that 2,443 flood events claimed about 44,991 lives with the average of 1,551 lives each year. In terms of population size, these figures translate into a loss of 1.5 human lives per million of the population. A majority (56 %) of flood fatalities were caused during severe flood events. However, the frequency of these events was just 19 % in comparison with heavy rainfall events (65 %). In spatial context, flood-related fatalities are distributed all over the country with highest fatalities in Uttar Pradesh (17 %), Maharashtra (13 %), and Bihar and Gujarat (10 % each). Most fatalities occurred during the summer season monsoon months of August (30 %) followed by July (29 %) and September (20 %). The country suffered a cumulative flood-related economic loss of about 16 billion US$ between 1978 and 2006 and a maximum economic loss of 1.6 billion US$ in the year 2000 alone. The study further suggests that both flood events and fatalities have increased in India over a period of time.     

US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases

This paper focuses on the US Billion-dollar Weather/Climate Disaster report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center. The current methodology for the production of this loss dataset is described, highlighting its strengths and limitations including sources of uncertainty and bias. The Insurance Services Office/Property Claims Service, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program and the US Department of Agriculture’s crop insurance program are key sources of quantified disaster loss data, among others. The methodology uses a factor approach to convert from insured losses to total direct losses, one potential limitation. An increasing trend in annual aggregate losses is shown to be primarily attributable to a statistically significant increasing trend of about 5 % per year in the frequency of billion-dollar disasters. So the question arises of how such trend estimates are affected by uncertainties and biases in the billion-dollar disaster data. The net effect of all biases appears to be an underestimation of average loss. In particular, it is shown that the factor approach can result in a considerable underestimation of average loss of roughly 10–15 %. Because this bias is systematic, any trends in losses from tropical cyclones appear to be robust to variations in insurance participation rates. Any attribution of the marked increasing trends in crop losses is complicated by a major expansion of the federally subsidized crop insurance program, as a consequence encompassing more marginal land. Recommendations concerning how the current methodology can be improved to increase the quality of the billion-dollar disaster dataset include refining the factor approach to more realistically take into account spatial and temporal variations in insurance participation rates.     

Assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury risk in Canada

This article summarizes research completed to assess the risk of lightning-related injuries and fatalities in Canada. Although lightning mortality has declined significantly over the past century, it remains a common meteorological hazard that regularly kills and injures. Based on an analysis of media reports, vital statistics, hospital admission and emergency room visit records, and fire loss data, the authors estimate that on average about 9–10 lightning-related deaths and 92–164 injuries occur each year in Canada. The distribution of casualties reflects current provincial population and cloud-to-ground lightning densities. Consistent with similar studies in other developed nations, most lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Canada occur during the June-August summer season, coincident with peak lightning, and during the Thursday-Saturday period, most likely related to higher rates of participation in outdoor activities. The majority of victims are male, less than 46 years old, and engaged in outdoor recreational activities when injured or killed in a lightning incident. Media reports used in the study were found to underestimate both lightning mortality (36%) and morbidity (20–600%).

Record-High Losses for Weather Disasters in the United States During the 1990s: How Excessive and Why?

During 1990–1996 the United States experienced record-setting insured property losses due to numerous weather catastrophes, each event causing $100 million or more in losses (1991 dollars). The total loss in this 7-year period, after adjustment to inflation and other factors, was $39.65 billion with $15 billion coming from one event, Hurricane Andrew. In the 1990s, 72 catastrophes occurred, half of the total number in the 40 preceding years, 1950–1989. Although the total loss and the number of catastrophes were exceptionally high in the 1990s, the average loss per event was $551 million, only slightly more than the $467 million average for catastrophes during 1950–1989. Furthermore, storm intensities in the 1990s were slightly less than those during the preceding 40 years, revealing the excess losses of the 1990s to be a result of an extremely large number of damaging storms causing losses exceeding $100 million. Examination of historical values of most weather extremes including hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes, did not show an increase during the 1990s, revealing that weather changes were not the principal cause of more catastrophes. Examination of recent demographic shifts in the U.S. reveals two changes, each based on major re-locations to higher-valued property concentrated in areas either with a high frequency of damaging storms (Gulf and East Coast), or to where even a small but intense storm can cause huge losses (urban areas and West Coast). These shifts, plus the continuing growth of population in other storm-prone areas have greatly increased society's vulnerability to storm damage. An in-depth analysis of many conditions was required to establish that the high losses and numerous catastrophes of the 1990s were largely the result of societal changes and not major weather changes. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Global landslide and avalanche hotspots

Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km² was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales.     

The resurgence of Malaria in India 1965–76

Summary and Tentative Conclusion The eradication campaign faltered, for historical reasons some of which are tentatively suggested above and which would be worthy of fuller study as an important part of recent medical history; it is one of those historical topics so intertwined with political and social history that an interdisciplinary approach would be fruitful — if the necessary documents could be made accessible, in India and perhaps in international organisations and subscribing government archives too.Once the campaign faltered malaria seems to have diffused from the four foci suggested, the Kutch saltmarsh area and the hill-forest tracts of Madhya, Orissa and Assam. The role of wet years in areas normally arid, semi-arid or only moderately humid seems crucial in the diffusion process, and if the gaps in the rainfall anomaly maps can be filled we shall try to provide a more rigorous analysis of this relationship. Some humid and perhumid areas of high agricultural development, and dense or very dense rural populations, and one or two areas of considerable industrial and urban development like Greater Calcutta and nearby towns, seem so far to be happily little affected by the diffusion of malaria, even though as late as 1948 some including much of West Bengal were hyperendemic areas. It remains to be established by detailed studies if these areas are better prepared in some way — natural immunity must have faded especially in the considerable proportion of young people who have been born since malaria eradication was almost within grasp; or are they so far comparatively fortunate through some chances of the diffusion pattern?Urban malaria, and one might say Anopheles stephensi malaria, is probably more widespread and more significant as an important public health problem than in former times. Once more the need for detailed local studies is clear.It is important to re-read the introductory paragraph of this paper. The fiftyfold increase from 100000 to 5 million cases represents a sharp resurgence but the 5 million cases of 1975 and 1976, and few scores of recorded deaths, still represent a remarkable achievement as compared with the 75 million cases and 800,000 deaths a year at the time of Independence. From over 5 million in 1976 to 10 million in the first nine months of 1977, however, is a quite disquieting increase. If complacence did indeed play a part in the crucial years of resurgence in the late 1960s, it is unlikely to continue today in medical circles. One can only hope that politicians will take the issue seriously. Studies of the economic, educational and demographic impact of the resurgence may help them to do so.     

Trend and spatiotemporal distribution of fatal landslides triggered by non-seismic effects in China

A large number of slope movements occur in China annually. Especially, fatal landslides are the most hazardous, causing serious fatalities and significant socio-economic losses. In this study, we collected data on fatal landslides triggered by non-seismic effects from China’s geological environment information site and Ministry of Natural Resources of China for the period 2004–2016. Then, we carried out a statistical analysis of the data to explore the trend and spatiotemporal distribution of the fatal landslides, as well as the distribution of its losses in economic and fatality terms. In the studied period, a total of 4718 deaths were recorded as resulting from 463 landslide events. It represents a frequency of 36 events and an average of 363 deaths every year. Also, an increasing trend of such landslide is observed in the period 2011–2016 with hazard record improvement. But its economic loss has a decreasing proportion of all recorded non-seismic geohazard loss for this period. Even so, the total economic loss in the studied period is still enormous at $981.29 million. The spatial distribution of fatal landslides shows intensive clusters in southwestern and southern China due to the possible distinctive geological environment and precipitation conditions. The temporal distribution reveals significant association with the rainy season, with the largest quantity of events occurring between June and September. Among all the collected landslides during the studied period, 94.2% are associated with rainfall. This research gives a comprehensive recognition of fatal landslide damage and provides baseline information for landslide prevention and mitigation.     

中国地质灾害防治成效与问题对策

文章回顾了中国地质灾害调查评价、监测预警、综合防治、应急响应、信息化建设、技术装备、技术标准、学术研究、行业进步和法治化建设等工作业绩。中国地质灾害造成的遇难人数1995~2000年年均死亡失踪1205人,2001~2005年均死亡失踪884人,2006~2010年均死亡失踪776人(2010年数据不含甘肃舟曲县城山洪泥石流造成的1765人死亡失踪),2011~2017年均死亡失踪395人,2018年死亡失踪112人。2001~2010年发生地质灾害总数量194702处,平均1.947万处/年;直接经济损失385.3亿元,平均38.5亿元/年,平均19.8万元/处。2011~2018年发生地质灾害总数量为84718处,平均1.06万处/年;直接经济损失355.7亿元,平均44.5亿元/年,平均41.9万元/处。2001年以来城乡社区直接经济损失占国家GDP的比例不断下降,平均年降率为0.016‰。地质灾害成功预报数量占地质灾害总数的比例从2003的5%上升到2018年的20%左右。经过采取各种减灾措施,城乡社区需要应急避险人数逐渐减少。总结了存在的问题和面临的形势,如防灾文化建设薄弱、法制不健全和直接经济损失统计局限于城乡社区而未覆盖工程建设行业的地质灾害等。提出了地质灾害防治要建立政府、企业、个人、社会(包括保险业)和科技界五位一体的防灾减灾“伙伴”关系等对策。     

Population growth and urbanization in Latin America

The population of Latin America will be increasing by 130 % between 1970 and the year 2000. Due to excessive rural exodus the urban population grows almost twice as fast as the rural does. The urbanization of the subcontinent must be regarded as being the dominant spatial process in Latin America. It results in fundamental changes of the structure and the way of life of the population as well as in the size and character of the settlements. Three case studies (Popayán/Colombia, Sucre/Bolivia and Santiago/Chile) show that a process of westernization can be observed within the analogous to their size, in the course of which the compact structure of the colonial town pattern is succeeded by a sectorially or cellularly arranged cityorganism. From today's point of view a definite judgement on urbanization as a relevant phenomenon of development cannot yet be made. It can be stated, however, that the southern countries of Latin America which have been urbanized the most show distinct signs of a social and economic “take off”.     

Possibilities of agricultural settlements in the northern coastal area of Kenya —an analysis of relevant climatic factors

Kenya is one of those African countries with a very high population pressure. In cultivatable areas we find up to 650 rural inhabitants per sq km. The search for new possibilities of agricultural settlement is an indispensable task. Many sciences are involved, also the geography of climates. Probably the largest potential settlement area from the climatic point of view is the Northern coastal zone. It has been settled in medieval times much more densely than today. War-like invasions of nomads have decreased the population since the 16th century. The average density of the cultivatable strip has been less than 5 inhabitants per sqkm in the last census year 1969. New settlement schemes have been developed since 1970, but they face the difficulty to choose the right varieties of crops. Careful climatic investigations are necessary for the further selection of areas and for the agricultural extension service. Here, only a first approach has been made. The main emphasis was laid on the effective rainfall in the so-called agrohumid period of the year and its probability. A new system of climatic classification was applied to give a frame for further, more specialised studies.     

《中国岩溶》网络影响特征及其分析

为能比较确切地了解《中国岩溶》的网络影响力和明确今后办刊的努力方向,以中国知网( CNKI)中心网站2005年1月1日— 2007年3月15日的日志记录资料为依据,运用CNKI所提供的期刊文献评价统计分析系统软件对《中国岩溶》的网络传播特征进行了统计分析。结果表明, 1982— 1998年,由于论文的时效性等原因, 《中国岩溶》被访问和下载量比较小, 1982— 1993年所出版的论文平均每篇受访、下载率不足0. 7和0. 4次, 1994— 1998年为20. 1和7. 1次,属《中国岩溶》论文被访问下载量基本无升幅和小额度升幅时段; 1999年以后,由于能够主动地根据国家社会经济发展需要,及时调整选题并加强生态环境、水资源开发、环境地质等研究领域的组稿力度,被访问下载量明显提高,平均每篇被访问、下载率分别达78. 9次和34. 8次,为《中国岩溶》论文被访问下载的高额度升幅时段。当前《中国岩溶》网络传播存在的主要问题是国外网络传播能力比较小等,亟待通过不断加强海外宣传及规范中英文摘要的编写等手段加以解决。      

Population pressure and areas of potential rural development in Southern Nigeria

The spatial analysis of agricultural development is the necessary precondition for research in the rural landscape and for rural planning. Basic data emerging from field investigation and a systematic interpretation of aerial photographs have resulted in a series of thematic maps of Southern Nigeria and parts of Western Cameroon. This comprehensive research work has been organized within the framework of the Afrika-Kartenwerk of the German Research Society.In this paper our recently published population map of the scale of 1:1 million and the map of rural settlement patterns form the basis for some rather general estimates of agricultural potential. Exact spatial information of simple but non the less most important regional processes, like migration, are caused by population pressure. Not bare statistical figures but their transformation by cartographic means forms a fundament for area studies and hypothetical prospects for regional planning as well as for regional analysis.By larger scale observations agricultural carrying capacity, evaluation of rural potential, migration dynamics and changes of land-use systems have to be analyzed. This calls for meticulous studies of individual areas. The first of three such case studies stresses the process of intensification of land utilization near the Nsukka-Escarpment. Linear settlement patterns and chains of regular individually owned stripfields can be seen as inprints of a dynamic transformation within the cultural landscape. Reception of new agricultural technology has been a way for emigrant farmers to exploit traditionally sparsely utilized zones with rich soils, which had been less attractive, because they were hard to cultivate with the hoe.The second case deals with the well known migratory and agro-economic links between the overpopulated food crop belt of Northern Yoruba Savannah Country and the cocoabelt in the rain forest about 100 km further south.In Central Iboland rural overpopulation of more than 1000 persons per km² and land shortage theoretically could be diminished by opening up uninhabited areas of the Niger flood-plain and the delta for modern agricultural exploitation. But not only the physical obstacles such as there are poor soils, very high rainfall and seasonal floods within the Niger low lands are hindering rural colonization. Social and political factors, like ethnic traditions and historic barriers still seem to be very perserverant. All this hardly allows strangers to get hold of unused land, to exploit valuable natural resources or to introduce modern agricultural technology. But generally speaking, population pressure as well as higher demand for social services and better incomes result in changes in the traditional land-use systems. The impact of growing urban or industrial economic spheres on agriculture acts as accelerating factor in this development. A paradise-landscape for Africa where optimal utilization of all physical resources under best socio-economic conditions may be practiced and where more than ten times of the present population of Africa could exist, as CAROL puts it in one of his scenarios (1973 and 1975), seems to be quite unrealistic and really never will be desirable.