Hot spot analysis based on network spatial weights to determine spatial statistics of traffic accidents in Rize,Turkey

The increased numbers of vehicles using roads in the world today are cause of traffic-related problems, and in this respect, road traffic accidents are an important topic relating to public health. Especially on the road connecting two border provinces, traffic accidents are increasing substantially in parallel with the quantity of transport facilities. By determining areas where traffic accidents result in deaths or injuries, accident prevention strategies can be developed. This study applies the spatial statistics techniques using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to determine the intensity of traffic accidents (hot-spot regions) over 45 km of main routes in Rize Province, Turkey. Traffic accidents recorded in data spanning 5 years are combined with a geographical dataset for evaluation using hot spot statistical analysis. Unlike other studies, this study used hot spot analysis based on network spatial weights (an innovative review in the methods of determining traffic accident hot spots: “novel application of GIScience”) to identify black spots for traffic safety. To perform the analysis using Hot Spot Analysis: Getis-Ord Gi*, a generated network dataset and the spatial weights of the road data are used to generate network spatial weights. Then, Kernel Density method is used to define traffic accident black spots. Finally, these two methods are compared each other with visually.     

US tornado fatalities in motor vehicles (1991–2015)

Motor vehicles historically have been dangerous locations to shelter in during tornado events. Throughout the twentieth century, motor vehicle design has become safer while tornado forecasting has become better understood. Despite such advances, tornado fatalities in motor vehicles still occur today, and some events periodically result in high numbers of deaths (e.g., ten motor vehicle occupants were killed by a single tornado in Garland, Texas, in 2015). We seek to examine all US tornado-induced motor vehicle fatalities documented between 1991 and 2015. Our findings indicate that motor vehicle fatalities have not significantly changed during this study period. We attribute annual fatality totals to persons lacking awareness of impending dangers coupled with numbers of significant tornado events for a given year. We find most fatalities result when vehicles are lofted or passengers are ejected, and this most typically occurs at the EF3–EF5 intensity thresholds. Fatalities that occur at weaker tornado winds (EF0–EF2) are most often attributed to collapsing debris (mostly trees) on vehicles. Spatially, motor vehicle fatalities are greatest in the Deep South and southern Great Plains regions where overall tornado and nighttime tornado frequencies are greatest. Some of the largest motor vehicle fatality events have resulted from tornadoes not being distinctly visible to motorists; such events have been characterized by tornadoes occurring at night or by tornadoes not appearing as “classic funnels.”     

Spatio-temporal analysis of road traffic accident fatality in Bangladesh integrating newspaper accounts and gridded population data

Road traffic accidents pose serious threats to human lives and often cause premature deaths, disabilities, and socioeconomic impacts. The objective of this study is to analyze the fatal road traffic accidents in Bangladesh by performing a space–time characterization of fatality rates involving an innovative newspaper-based method in concert with gridded population data to construct a road traffic fatality database. Kernel density estimation, temporal data plots and space–time pattern mining tools that combine the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic with the Mann–Kendall test are used to describe spatio-temporal hotspots/coldspots and trends. Results show different patterns between the urban and rural areas of Bangladesh and higher rates of road traffic accidents occur in the metropolitan regions (Dhaka) and in a northern region centered on Sirajganj area. Most of the road traffic accidents took place in between 9:00 and 12:00 pm while the accident rates remain low between 12:00 and 3:00 am. Spacetime analysis results reveal a core region of persistently high rates along with four smaller regions with high and intensifying rates. The output of this study could be useful to reduce road traffic fatalities, injuries, increase awareness, and adopt necessary interventions for public safety through integrating both the local, regional, and central level decision makers of public transportation policy and issues in Bangladesh. The approach has potential to be translated to other developing countries.     

Bayesian analysis of school bus accidents: a case study of China

Natural Hazards - Prevention and control of school bus accidents have been a hot spot topic around the world. The catastrophic accident can result in severe casualties associated with negative...     

Investigation on fatal accidents in Chinese construction industry between 2004 and 2016

This paper summarizes a number of fatal accidents that occurred in the Chinese construction industry from 2004 to 2016, and more detailed analysis is conducted on the data between 2010 and 2016. The data collected from 2010 to 2016 reveal that 3817 fatal accidents occurred during the construction of buildings and municipal facilities. Analysis is conducted to reveal the reasons of these construction accidents. The number of fatalities and accidents, the types of accidents, the effect of climate factors, the time period distribution of accidents, and provincial distribution are analyzed and compared. The results show that, falling from heights is the main cause of fatal accidents. The number of fatalities and accidents varies sharply across provinces and is closely related to the climate (the same gross output with less accidents in the cold weather areas). Due to annual transferring and traditional Chinese Spring Festival, project schedule is generally arranged less in December, January, and February so that a lower number of accidents are reported in these months. Daily, accidents in the afternoon are higher than that in the morning.     

Four loss estimates for the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake,April 25, 2015, before and after it occurred

The number of fatalities in the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake of April 25, 2015, has been estimated at four different times as follows. In March 2005, the fatality estimate in this journal was 21,000–42,000 with an assumed magnitude of 8.1 (Wyss in Nat Hazard 34:305–314, 2005). Within hours after this earthquake, the estimated number of fatalities by QLARM was 2000–10,000 using a point source model and M7.9. Four hours later, the estimate was 20,000–100,000, based on a first approximation line source model and assuming children were in school. Children out of school, as this was a weekend day, reduced the fatalities by approximately a factor of two, but was not taken into account for the calculation. The final line source estimates based on M7.8 and M7.9 calculates 800–9300 and 1100–11,200 fatalities, respectively. The official count is about 10,000 fatalities. These estimates were performed using QLARM, a computer tool and world data set on the distribution of people in settlements and containing a model of the buildings present. It is argued here that the loss estimate 10 years before the event being within a factor of 2.1 of the eventual loss count is useful for mitigation planning. With varying quality of information on the source and the attenuation, the estimates of fatalities shortly after the earthquake are accurate enough to be useful for first responders. With full knowledge of the rupture properties and the regional attenuation of seismic waves, the numbers of human losses are estimated correctly.

     

Driving the ‘Starship Enterprise’ through London: Constructing the im/moral driver-citizen through HGV safety technology

The intersections between technology, mobility and citizenship have been relatively neglected in current geographical enquiry. Through qualitative analysis of user, operator and media accounts of retro-fitted safety technology on HGVs (Heavy Goods Vehicles), this paper illustrates the ways in which citizenship as a moral accomplishment is dependent upon the socio-technical worlds into which individual actors are folded. In response to the growing incidence of cyclist fatalities under the wheels of HGVs, various safety technologies have been positioned as reliable ‘intermediaries’ by policymakers, manufacturers and operators seeking to mitigate the risks of the HGV. However, we demonstrate that these technologies are more accurately seen as ‘mediators’, because of the ways in which they distort and translate information, producing and reshaping new tasks and roles for HGV drivers. One of the consequences of this is a shift in responsibility towards the drivers, which increases the potential to construct them as negligent if accidents still occur. Accordingly, we indicate how technologies ‘push back’ on mobile subjects, shaping not only their ability for moral conduct, but broader social identities as citizens.     

Lightning casualties and damages in China from 1997 to 2009

Lightning-related fatalities, injuries and property damages reported in China from 1997 to 2009 are summarized by using the National Lightning Hazards Database. Therefore, characteristics of the incidents including 5,033 deaths, 4,670 injuries and 61,614 damage reports are analyzed. For the spatial distribution of lightning disasters in China, the eastern costal and southern areas have more frequent lightning disasters than the western areas. Lightning disasters mainly occur in summer months from July to September, while fewer damages occur in winter months from October to March, which correlate significantly with the temporal variability of lightning frequency in China. Lightning-related casualties and damages in China have increased for the period of 1997 to 2007 and then began to decrease since 2008. The national fatalities and injuries per million people per year are 0.31 and 0.28, respectively. Rural people account for 51 and 29% of all lightning fatalities and injuries, which makes residents in agricultural and rural area the major lightning victims. Characteristics of lightning disasters and correlative factors are also studied, including hazard-affected industries and locations. The results show that civil industry has the worst property loss and farmland is the largest category in lightning-caused casualty locations.     

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 airborne infection transmission risk in public buses

Public transport environments are thought to play a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. Indeed, high crowding indexes (i.e. high numbers of people relative to the vehicle size), inadequate clean air supply, and frequent extended exposure durations make transport environments potential hotspots for transmission of respiratory infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, generic mitigation measures (e.g. physical distancing) have been applied without also considering the airborne transmission route. This is due to the lack of quantified data about airborne contagion risk in transport environments.In this study, we apply a novel combination of close proximity and room-scale risk assessment approaches for people sharing public transport environments to predict their contagion risk due to SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection. In particular, the individual infection risk of susceptible subjects and the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 (expressed through the reproduction number) are evaluated for two types of buses, differing in terms of exposure time and crowding index: urban and long-distance buses. Infection risk and reproduction number are calculated for different scenarios as a function of the ventilation rates (both measured and estimated according to standards), crowding indexes, and travel times. The results show that for urban buses, the close proximity contribution significantly affects the maximum occupancy to maintain a reproductive number of <1. In particular, full occupancy of the bus would be permitted only for an infected subject breathing, whereas for an infected subject speaking, masking would be required. For long-distance buses, full occupancy of the bus can be maintained only if specific mitigation solutions are simultaneously applied. For example, for an infected person speaking for 1 h, appropriate filtration of the recirculated air and simultaneous use of FFP2 masks would permit full occupancy of the bus for a period of almost 8 h. Otherwise, a high percentage of immunized persons (>80%) would be needed.     

Fatal landslides in Europe

Landslides are a major hazard causing human and large economic losses worldwide. However, the quantification of fatalities and casualties is highly underestimated and incomplete, thus, the estimation of landslide risk is rather ambitious. Hence, a spatio-temporal distribution of deadly landslides is presented for 27 European countries over the last 20  years (1995–2014). Catastrophic landslides are widely distributed throughout Europe, however, with a great concentration in mountainous areas. In the studied period, a total of 1370 deaths and 784 injuries were reported resulting from 476 landslides. Turkey showed the highest fatalities with 335. An increasing trend of fatal landslides is observed, with a pronounced number of fatalities in the latest period from 2008 to 2014. The latter are mostly triggered by natural extreme events such as storms (i.e., heavy rainfall), earthquakes, and floods and only minor by human activities, such as mining and excavation works. Average economic loss per year in Europe is approximately 4.7 billion Euros. This study serves as baseline information for further risk mapping by integrating deadly landslide locations, local land use data, and will therefore help countries to protect human lives and property.     

A qualitative study of mobile home resident perspectives on tornadoes and tornado protective actions in South Carolina,USA

Occupants of mobile or manufactured homes in the United States of America (USA) are highly exposed and susceptible to injury or death from tornado hazards. This problem is most pronounced in the southern and eastern USA, where tornadoes are frequent and mobile homes comprise upwards of 15 % of the housing stock. Recognizing this vulnerability, emergency management entities and the USA National Weather Service often recommend that mobile home residents evacuate to a nearby sturdy building or a specially-built tornado shelter when tornadoes threaten their communities. Previous research suggests, however, that only 30 % of residents follow this recommendation. In this research I aim to provide insight as to why many mobile home residents seldom undertake the suggested course of action for tornadoes. Using excerpts from twenty semi-structured interviews conducted during 2013 in South Carolina, I show that some individuals understand physical characteristics of tornadoes very differently than experts do. In addition, mobile home residents may also hold views that differ from experts about the ability of their homes to withstand tornadic winds and debris. Even if mobile home occupants pay close attention to thunderstorm hazards and might be willing to evacuate, they may prioritize protective actions for lightning or flash flooding over those recommended for tornadoes. Finally, the interviews reveal that there is much confusion over where to go, when to leave, and which route to take to arrive safely at a sheltering place for tornado hazards. I discuss some of the potential ramifications of the findings for theory and practice and suggest how future research might build on this work.     

The environmental impact of landslides on the population living on the eastern footslopes of the Aberdare ranges in Kenya: a case study of Maringa Village landslide

 Landslides are a recognized but poorly studied phenomena in the eastern footslopes of the Aberdare ranges in central Kenya. The Aberdare ranges traverse the Murang'a, Kiambu, Nyeri and Nyandarua districts of Kenya where fatal landslides have occurred in the past. A detailed study of a major landslide which occurred at Maringa village in Murang'a district on 30 April 1997, has been undertaken. The landslide buried three houses at the toe of a slope and killed all the 11 occupants in their sleep. It is shown that the geology and climate of the study area contribute to the prevalence of landslides not only in Murang'a but in all the andosol-covered areas throughout the eastern footslopes of Aberdare ranges. Rapid weathering of pyroclastic rocks in a warm and wet climate create a regolith which is generally weaker than the underlying better-cemented basalt and basaltic agglomerates. The landsliding occurred when the weathered pyroclastic regolith become saturated after a heavy rainstorm on high mechanically unstable slope which slid over the more stable basalts. Over-saturation of clay soils (andosol) which were also derived from weathering of pyroclastic rocks contributed to the slope failure. The results of the study show that besides fatalities and injuries, the landslide destroyed homes, plantations and roads. Received: 16 March 1998 · Accepted: 22 September 1998     

Nontornadic convective wind fatalities in the United States

A database was compiled for the period 1977–2007 to assess the threat to life in the conterminous United States from nontornadic convective wind events. This study reveals the number of fatalities from these wind storms, their causes, and their unique spatial distributions. Nontornadic convective wind fatalities occur most frequently outdoors, in vehicles including aircraft, or while boating. Fatalities are most common in the Great Lakes and Northeast, with fewer fatalities observed in the central United States despite the climatological peak in severe thunderstorms in this region. Differences in fatality locations between tornadoes and nontornadic convective wind events highlight the unique combination of physical and social vulnerabilities involved in these deaths. Understanding these vulnerabilities is important to future reduction of nontornadic convective wind fatalities.     

Comparing the spatial patterns of earthquake disaster probability and individual risk perception: a case study of Yongkang Township in Tainan,Taiwan

Natural Hazards - During major earthquake disasters, a lack of preparedness on the part of both officials and citizens can result in serious injuries and fatalities. Indeed, due to the unequal...     

Flood events, fatalities and damages in India from 1978 to 2006

High temporal and spatial variability of rainfall qualifies India to be highly vulnerable to floods. Recurring floods of various magnitudes play havoc with the lives and property of the people, leading to unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation, thwarting and retarding the overall development of the country. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the types and trends in terms of flood events, frequency, number of people killed, injured, missing and economic damage both in space and time on the basis of a nationwide database published by India Meteorological Department, Pune, from 1978 to 2006. Analysis of these long-term data has revealed that 2,443 flood events claimed about 44,991 lives with the average of 1,551 lives each year. In terms of population size, these figures translate into a loss of 1.5 human lives per million of the population. A majority (56 %) of flood fatalities were caused during severe flood events. However, the frequency of these events was just 19 % in comparison with heavy rainfall events (65 %). In spatial context, flood-related fatalities are distributed all over the country with highest fatalities in Uttar Pradesh (17 %), Maharashtra (13 %), and Bihar and Gujarat (10 % each). Most fatalities occurred during the summer season monsoon months of August (30 %) followed by July (29 %) and September (20 %). The country suffered a cumulative flood-related economic loss of about 16 billion US$ between 1978 and 2006 and a maximum economic loss of 1.6 billion US$ in the year 2000 alone. The study further suggests that both flood events and fatalities have increased in India over a period of time.     

Synoptic features and environmental conditions of the tornado outbreak on March 22, 2013 at Brahmanbaria in the east-central region of Bangladesh

This study evaluates the synoptic features and environmental conditions of Brahmanbaria tornado event that caused 36 fatalities, 388 injuries and huge damages of properties on 22 March, 2013. Various factors for initiation of that terrific event are investigated through analysis JRA-55 reanalysis (50 km horizontal resolution) data and Multi-functional Transport Satellite images by Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, radar images, radiosonde data and three hourly synoptic data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department are used to verify the reanalysis data. The genesis of the tornadic storm is identifiable in the most unstable part of the study region. The satellite observations are found to useful to identify the location of convection occurrence region. The half hourly satellite images identify that the convection initiation started at the convergence area and the systems intensify and organize by the continuous moisture supply from the Bay of Bengal. Lower-level convergence coupled with strong wind shear and humidity gradient lift moist air aloft to trigger deep convection and the severe storm occurred. Energy Helicity Index seems a good predictor parameter for this specific case study.     

Exploring the potential of location-based social networks data as proxy variables in collective human mobility prediction models

The study of human mobility has gained much attention in recent years. To date, various models have been developed to predict human mobility patterns for intra- and/or inter-city cases. These models incorporate the populations as proxy variables in the place of real variables which cannot be observed easily. However, inaccuracies in predicting human mobility within cities are usually encountered. One source of inaccuracies in intra-city scenarios arises from the fact that cities’ populations are influenced by people from other areas. Therefore, population cannot be regarded as a good proxy variable for movement modeling. The objectives of this article are to introduce new proxy variables for use in current models for predicting human mobility patterns within cities, and to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions. In this study, we have introduced new proxy variables, namely, venues and check-ins, extracted from location-based social networks (LBSNs). In order to evaluate the models, we have compared our results with empirical data obtained from taxi vehicles, based on trip distances and destination population distributions. The Sørensen similarity index (SSI) and R-squared measures were also used to compare the performances of models using each variable. The results show that all models with LBSN variables can capture real human movements better within Manhattan, New York City. Our analytical results indicated that the predicted trips using LBSN data are more similar to the real trips, on average, by about 20% based on the SSI. Moreover, the R-squared measures obtained from regression analyses were enhanced significantly.     

The July 1, 2017 Wangjiawan landslide in Ningxiang County,China

Many landslides were triggered by heavy rainfall from 29 June to 1 July 2017 in Ningxiang County, Hunan Province, China. A field investigation into one of the landslides, known as the Wangjiawan landslide, was undertaken on July 3, 2017, to understand the landslide mechanisms and the factors that triggered the event. The landslide is a translational and rotational slide that degraded downslope to an earth flow. It occurred on a steeply dipping mud-rich slate intercalation. Field investigation shows that the landslide had a movement rate of more than 25 m/s and had been triggered by up to 338 mm of continuous rainfall over 2 days. The landslide was fast-moving because it occurred on a steep slope and showed a rapid reduction in shear strength. The landslide resulted in nine fatalities and 19 injuries, most during initial rescue efforts. To mitigate a possible secondary landslide disaster, later emergency measures including evacuation of the survivors, setting up warning signs, and covering landslide cracks with plastic sheeting were adopted.     

Modeling a spatiotemporal distribution of stranded people returning home on foot in the aftermath of a large-scale earthquake

On the day of the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake (2011), all rail services in the Tokyo Metropolitan area were paralyzed, amid substantial confusion. Consequently, over 3 million persons were unable to return home on that day. Some, unable to contact their families, felt uneasy and set out to return home on foot. Main roads were seriously congested with cars and people, and the use of emergency vehicles was also obstructed. In this paper, we construct several models that describe decision-making and behavior of individuals attempting to reach home on foot in the wake of a devastating earthquake. The proposed models are calibrated using data taken from questionnaire surveys and person-trip surveys, addressed to occupants of the Tokyo Metropolitan area. We attempt to simulate the movement of individuals having decided to return home on foot and demonstrate the spatiotemporal distribution of those who might be exposed to city fires on their way home in the context of such an event.     

Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates

Seismic hazard maps are constructed by extrapolating from the frequency of small earthquakes, the annual probability of large, infrequent, earthquakes. Combining the potential contribution from all seismically active volumes, one calculates the peak ground acceleration with a probability to be exceeded by 10?% in 50?years at any given point. The consequential risk, the losses to be expected, derives from the damage the calculated shaking causes to buildings, and the impact on occupants due to collapsing structures. We show that the numbers of fatalities in recent disastrous earthquakes were underestimated by the world seismic hazard maps by approximately two to three orders of magnitude. Thus, seismic hazard maps based on the standard method cannot be used to estimate the risk to which the population is exposed due to large earthquakes.