Periodicities in Solar Flare Index for Cycles 21 – 23 Revisited

The periodic analyses of solar flare data have been carried out by different authors for about three decades. Controversial results appear as depending on the analysis techniques and investigated time periods. Considering that different authors applied different methods to different data sets, it seems necessary to reanalyze the periodicity of solar flare index with a unified method. In this study we used two new methods to investigate the periodic behavior of solar flare index data, first for individual cycles 21, 22 and 23, and then for all of them. We used i) the multi taper method with red- and white-noise approximations, and ii) the Morlet wavelet transform for periodicity analysis. Apart from the solar rotation periodicity of about 27 days which is of obvious significance and is found in all examined cycles with at least a 90% significance level, we obtained the following prominent periods: 152 days for cycle 21, 73 days for cycle 22, and 62 days for cycle 23. Finally, we compare our results with the ones previously found. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities is found in the range of low frequencies (long periods) while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. This result might be useful for better predictions of the solar cycles.     

North and South Hemispheric Solar Activity for Cycles 21 – 23: Asymmetry and Conditional Volatility of Plage Region Areas

We study the dynamic evolution of the time series describing the plage regions areas observed daily at the Observatório Astronómico da Universidade de Coimbra, in each one of the solar hemispheres during solar cycles 21?–?23. The classical ARMA model has proven to be insufficient to describe the time variations seen in the data because of the strong conditional variability. We found that the data are well fitted by ARMA mixed with power-δ TGARCH error models. The power index δ is non-integer; this property has recently been introduced in the literature on time-series analyses and indicates the presence of strong volatility and long memory in the data series. We also detected dynamic asymmetry in the plage region areas observed in the two hemispheres when two different temporal models were obtained to fit them. The finding of a dynamic asymmetry is also supported by the dynamic evolution of the daily difference (north–south) time series, which is significantly different from white noise. This statistical modeling of time series, taking into account new and different characteristics of the solar activity, will be very useful in subsequent forecast developments.     

Polar Coronal Holes During Solar Cycles 22 and 23

Data from the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) on Ulysses and synoptic maps from Kitt Peak are used to analyze the polar coronal holes of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 (from 1990 to end of 2003). In the beginning of the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23, the north polar coronal holes (PCHs) appear about one year earlier than the ones in the south polar region. The solar wind velocity and the solar wind ionic charge composition exhibit a characteristic dependence on the solar wind source position within a PCH. From the center toward the boundary of a young PCH, the solar wind velocity decreases, coinciding with a shift of the ionic charge composition toward higher charge states. However, for an old PCH, the ionic charge composition does not show any obvious change, although the latitude evolution of the velocity is similar to that of a young PCH.     

The Rotation Rates of Solar Magnetic Fields During Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Employing the synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic fields from the beginning of solar cycle 21 to the end of 23, we first build up a time – longitude stackplot at each latitude between ±35°. On each stackplot there are many tilted magnetic structures clearly reflecting the rotation rates, and we adopt a cross-correlation technique to explore the rotation rates from these tilted structures. Our new method avoids artificially choosing magnetic tracers, and it is convenient for investigating the rotation rates of the positive and negative fields by omitting one kind of field on the stackplots. We have obtained the following results. i) The rotation rates of the positive and negative fields (or the leader and follower polarities, depending on the hemispheres and solar cycles) between latitudes ±35° during solar cycles 21–23 are derived. The reversal times of the leader and follower polarities are usually not consistent with the years of the solar minimum, nevertheless, at latitudes ±16°, the reversal times are almost simultaneous with them. ii) The rotation rates of the three solar cycles averaged over each cycle are calculated separately for the positive, negative and total fields. The latitude profiles of rotation of the positive and negative fields exhibit equatorial symmetries with each other, and those of the total fields lie between them. iii) The differences in rotation rates between the leader and follower polarities are obtained. They are very small near the equator, and increase as latitude increases. In the latitude range of 5° – 20°, these differences reach 0.05 deg day⁻¹, and the mean difference for solar cycle 22 is somewhat smaller than cycles 21 and 23 in these latitude regions. Then, the differences reduce again at latitudes higher than 20°.     

Differential Rotation of Strong Magnetic Flux During Solar Cycles 21 – 23

In the present investigation we measure the differential rotation of strong magnetic flux during solar cycles 21 – 23 with the method of wavelet transforms. We find that the cycle-averaged synodic rotation rate of strong magnetic flux can be written as ω=13.47−2.58sin ² θ or ω=13.45−2.06sin ² θ−1.37sin ⁴ θ, where θ is the latitude. They agree well with the results derived from sunspots. A north–south asymmetry of the rotation rate is found at high latitudes (28°<θ<40°). The strong flux in the southern hemisphere rotates faster than that in the northern hemisphere by 0.2 deg day⁻¹. The asymmetry continued for cycles 21 – 23 and may be a secular property.     

Comparisons of Supergranule Characteristics During the Solar Minima of Cycles 22/23 and 23/24

Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that manifests itself on the photosphere as a cellular network of around 35 Mm across, with a turnover lifetime of 1 – 2 days. It is strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field. The horizontal, divergent flows within supergranule cells carry local field lines to the cell boundaries, while the rotational properties of supergranule upflows may contribute to the restoration of the poloidal field as part of the dynamo mechanism, which controls the solar cycle. The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended length. It is of interest to study whether the convective phenomena that influence the solar magnetic field during this time differed in character from periods of previous minima. This study investigates three characteristics (velocity components, sizes and lifetimes) of solar supergranulation. Comparisons of these characteristics are made between the minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 using MDI Doppler data from 1996 and 2008, respectively. It is found that whereas the lifetimes are equal during both epochs (around 18 h), the sizes are larger in 1996 (35.9 ± 0.3 Mm) than in 2008 (35.0 ± 0.3 Mm), while the dominant horizontal velocity flows are weaker (139 ± 1 m s⁻¹ in 1996; 141 ± 1 m s⁻¹ in 2008). Although numerical differences are seen, they are not conclusive proof of the most recent minimum being inherently unusual.     

Microwave,Soft and Hard X-Ray Observations of Solar Flares – a Self-Consistent Model of the Flare Site

High-resolution microwave observations of several flares performed with the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WRST) on 3 and 4 July 1993 are compared with Yohkoh observations in the soft and hard X-ray domain. Only for one flare, among the six analyzed, was the hard X-ray spectrum between 20 and 200 keV available from the Wide Bragg Spectrometer, supplying the energy spectrum of non-thermal particles responsible for this radiation and for the radio emission. A complete model of this flare is derived which accounts for all available observations in the X-ray and radio wavelengths.     

Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the North – South Asymmetry of Solar Activity

The north – south (N – S) asymmetry of solar activity is investigated by using the data on coronal green-line brightness and total number and total area of sunspots over the period of 1939  –  2001. Typical time variations of the N – S asymmetry are found to be consonant in these indices. Quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of solar activity are well recognizable in the N – S asymmetry of the examined indices. Moreover, the QBO are much better manifested in the N – S asymmetry of the individual indices than in the original (N plus S) indices. The time variations of relative QBO power are synchronous for the N – S asymmetry of various solar activity indices whereas such a synchronization is weaker for the indices themselves. It is revealed that the relative QBO power found in the N – S asymmetry of the studied indices has a negative correlation with the value of the N – S asymmetry itself. The findings indicate that the N – S asymmetry should be regarded as a fundamental phenomenon of solar activity similarly manifested in different activity indices. These findings should be taken into account when any dynamo theory of solar activity is constructed.     

Reconstruction of the North–South Solar Asymmetry with a Kuramoto Model

This paper applies a Kuramoto model of coupled oscillators to investigate the north–south (N–S) solar asymmetry and properties of meridional circulation. We focus our study on the asymmetry of the 11-year phase, which is slight but persistent: only two changes of sign (around 1928 and 1968) are observed in the past century. We present a model of two non-linear coupled oscillators that links the hemispheric phase asymmetry of sunspots with the asymmetry of the meridional flow. We use a Kuramoto model with evolving frequencies and constant symmetric coupling to show how asymmetry in meridional circulation could produce a persistent phase lead of one solar hemisphere over the other. We associate the natural frequencies of the two oscillators with the velocities of the meridional flow cells in the northern and southern hemispheres. We assume the respective circulations to be independent and estimate the value of the relevant cross-equatorial coupling by the coupling coefficient in the Kuramoto model. We find that a persistent N–S asymmetry of sunspots and the change of the leading hemisphere could indeed both be the result of the evolving frequencies of meridional circulation; the necessary asymmetry of the meridional flow may be small; and the cross-equatorial coupling has an intermediate range value. Possible applications of these results in solar dynamo models are discussed.     

North–South Asymmetry in the Distribution of Solar Background Magnetic Field

The aim of this article is to investigate how the background magnetic field of the Sun behaves in different hemispheres. We used SOHO/MDI data obtained during a period of eight years from 2003 to 2011 to analyze the intensity distribution of the background magnetic field over the solar surface. We find that the background fields of both polarities (signs) are more intense in the southern than in the northern hemisphere. Mixed polarities are observed in the vicinity of the equator. In addition to the main field, a weaker field of opposite polarity is always present in the polar regions. In the declining phase of the cycle, the main field dominates, but at the minimum and in the rising phase of the cycle, it is gradually replaced by the growing stronger secondary field.     

Solar Polar Fields During Cycles 21 – 23: Correlation with Meridional Flows

We have examined polar magnetic fields for the last three solar cycles, viz. Cycles 21, 22, and 23 using NSO/Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms. In addition, we have used SOHO/MDI magnetograms to derive the polar fields during Cycle 23. Both Kitt Peak and MDI data at high latitudes (78° – 90°) in both solar hemispheres show a significant drop in the absolute value of polar fields from the late declining phase of the Solar Cycle 22 to the maximum of the Solar Cycle 23. We find that long-term changes in the absolute value of the polar field, in Cycle 23, are well correlated with changes in meridional-flow speeds that have been reported recently. We discuss the implication of this in influencing the extremely prolonged minimum experienced at the start of the current Cycle 24 and in forecasting the behavior of future solar cycles.     

The Long-term Behavior of the North – South Asymmetry of Sunspot Activity

A new index, the cumulative difference of sunspot activity in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, is proposed to describe the long-term behavior of the North – South asymmetry of sunspot activity and to show the balance (or bias) of sunspot activity in the two solar hemispheres on a long-term scale. Sunspot groups and sunspot areas from June 1874 to January 2007 are used to show the advantage of the index. The index clearly shows a long-term characteristic time scale of about 12 cycles in the North – South asymmetry of sunspot activity. Sunspot activity is found to dominate in the southern hemisphere in cycle 23, and in cycle 24 it is predicted to dominate still in the southern hemisphere. A comparison of the new index with other similar indexes is also given.     

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 – 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 – 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.     

The 27-Day and 22-Year Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

We study the evolution of the longitudinal asymmetry in solar activity through the wave packet technique applied to the period domain of 25 – 31 days (centered at the 27-day solar rotation period) for the sunspot number and geomagnetic aa index. We observe the occurrence of alternating smaller and larger amplitudes of the 11-year cycle, resulting in a 22-year periodicity in the 27-day signal. The evolution of the 22-year cycle shows a change of regime around the year 1912 when the 22-year period disappears from the sunspot number series and appears in the aa index. Other changes, such as a change in the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity, took place at the same time. Splitting the 27-day frequency domain of aa index shows an 11-year cycle for higher frequencies and a pure22-year cycle for lower frequencies, which we attribute to higher latitude coronal holes. This evidence is particularly clear after 1940, which is another benchmark in the evolution of the aa index. We discuss briefly the mechanisms that could account for the observed features of the 22-year cycle evolution.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activity and Flare Index Data during Solar Cycle 23

The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.     

Evolution of Coronal Holes and Implications for?High-Speed Solar Wind During the Minimum Between Cycles 23 and 24

We analyze coronal holes present on the Sun during the extended minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, study their evolution, examine the consequences for the solar wind speed near the Earth, and compare it with the previous minimum in 1996. We identify coronal holes and determine their size and location using a combination of EUV observations from SOHO/EIT and STEREO/EUVI and magnetograms. We find that the long period of low solar activity from 2006 to 2009 was characterized by weak polar magnetic fields and polar coronal holes smaller than observed during the previous minimum. We also find that large, low-latitude coronal holes were present on the Sun until 2008 and remained important sources of recurrent high-speed solar wind streams. By the end of 2008, these low-latitude coronal holes started to close down, and finally disappeared in 2009, while smaller, mid-latitude coronal holes formed in the remnants of Cycle 24 active regions shifting the sources of the solar wind at the Earth to higher latitudes.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

A Statistical Study on Photospheric Magnetic Nonpotentiality of Active Regions and Its Relationship with Flares During Solar Cycles 22?–?23

A statistical study is carried out on the photospheric magnetic nonpotentiality in solar active regions and its relationship with associated flares. We select 2173 photospheric vector magnetograms from 1106 active regions observed by the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope at Huairou Solar Observing Station, National Astronomical Observatories of China, in the period of 1988??C?2008, which covers most of the 22nd and 23rd solar cycles. We have computed the mean planar magnetic shear angle ( $\overline{\Delta\phi}$ ), mean shear angle of the vector magnetic field ( $\overline{\Delta\psi}$ ), mean absolute vertical current density ( $\overline{|J_{z}|}$ ), mean absolute current helicity density ( $\overline{|h_{\mathrm{c}}|}$ ), absolute twist parameter (|?? _av|), mean free magnetic energy density ( $\overline{\rho_{\mathrm{free}}}$ ), effective distance of the longitudinal magnetic field (d _E), and modified effective distance (d _Em) of each photospheric vector magnetogram. Parameters $\overline{|h_{\mathrm{c}}|}$ , $\overline{\rho_{\mathrm{free}}}$ , and d _Em show higher correlations with the evolution of the solar cycle. The Pearson linear correlation coefficients between these three parameters and the yearly mean sunspot number are all larger than 0.59. Parameters $\overline {\Delta\phi}$ , $\overline{\Delta\psi}$ , $\overline{|J_{z}|}$ , |?? _av|, and d _E show only weak correlations with the solar cycle, though the nonpotentiality and the complexity of active regions are greater in the activity maximum periods than in the minimum periods. All of the eight parameters show positive correlations with the flare productivity of active regions, and the combination of different nonpotentiality parameters may be effective in predicting the flaring probability of active regions.