Decadal climatic variations recorded in Guliya ice core and comparison with the historical documentary data from East China during the last 2000 years

The high-resolution records of δ¹⁸O and snow accumulation variations from the Guliya ice core provide valuable data for research on climatic variations at a decadal resolution during the past 2000 years in China. Based on the ice core data, five spells have been divided: the warm and wet period before 270 AD, the cold and dry period between 280 and 970 AD, the moderate and dry period between 970 and 1510 AD, the well-defined” Little Ice Age “with drastic cold-warm fluctuations between 1510 and 1930 AD and the warming period since 1930 AD. According to the combination of temperature and precipitation, cold events (55 times) surpass warm ones (26 times), and dry events (55 times) slupass wet ones (45 times). Cold-wet events (14 times) are less than cold-dry ones (16 times), while warm-wet events (10 times) are more than warm-dry ones (4 times). If the difference of2%c in δ¹⁸O (corresponding to 3K in temperature) between two or three adjacent decades is taken as the criterion of it, the abrupt change has taken place 33 times or so since the 3rd century. Among them are four large ones, occurring in 250–280, 550–580, 1220–1260, and 1520–1560 AD respectively. Comparison of the ice core data with the latest comprehensive research results on historical documents of East China shows that the great climatic events appeared simultaneously or at the same age in the ice core record and in the documentary data, suggesting that consistences and similarities in climatic variation among different areas are far away from each other in the lower to mid-latitudes. However, there is a great difference between them during the Medieval Warm Period, which is conspicuous in the historical documents but not in the ice core. In addition, the first cold event of the Little Ice Age on East China was 60 years earlier than that of the Guliya Ice Cap, when the degree of cwling in West China is more intensive than that of East China. But the third cold event in East China lagged behind that in West China during the late 19th century. The 1820s cold event in both West and East China may be caused by the magnificent Tambora volcanic eruption in 1815     

城市化对北京气象站极端气温指数趋势变化的影响

利用5个乡村气象站和北京气象站(简称北京站)1960～2008年日最高、最低气温资料,比较分析了北京地区城市和乡村极端气温指数年、季节的时间变化以及城市化对北京站各极端气温指数趋势变化的影响.结果表明:1960～2008年北京站霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数和平均日较差均显著减少,暖夜日数、暖昼日数、平均最高气温和平均最...     

1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探

长江洪水灾害是我国频率高、为患严重的自然灾害之一.本文依据可靠资料,选择1840年至2000年间32次大洪水记录,探讨其演变与气候变化的关系.认知1910s前的19世纪冷期出现大洪水13次(包括1870年的极值大洪水事件)频率为1.9次／10a.1921-2000年间出现了大洪水19次,频率为2.4次／10a.20世纪暖期又分出两个变暖时段,前一变暖时段的峰值期1920s-1940s出现大洪水9次,包含1931年全流域大洪水.后一变暖时段,即1980s与1990s出现大洪水8次.实测记录到的最大洪水1954年位于前一变暖时段结束阶段.1990s是全球,也是我国近百年中最暖年代,受东南季风影响大的中下游地区夏季降水量是近百年最多的,大暴雨频率也是有较多记录的40年来最高的.以此出现了10年5次大洪水高频率现象,包含1998年全流域型大洪水,表明了全球变暖的显著影响.也指示30-40年问周期性振荡中多雨年代.如此可预期21世纪初期降水会有小幅度下降与大洪水频率在短期内降低的可能性.长江上游受西南季风影响较大,19世纪下半期与20世纪上半期为多降水期,大洪水频率较高.20世纪下半期为少降水期,大洪水频率较低.关于气候变化研究有待深入,前景不易预估.     

Climatic and environmental changes at southeastern coast of Lake Biwa over past 3000 years, inferred from borehole temperature data

In order to infer past climatic change in central Japan, we measured temperatures in a borehole at the Karasuma site, on the southeastern coast of Lake Biwa, and reconstructed sediment surface temperature history during the last 3000 years. The reconstructed temperature history shows apparent Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and contemporary temperature warming. However, the large amplitude of the temperature changes up to 4-5 K cannot be explained by past climatic change only, suggesting that there was some other cause of the larger amplitude temperature changes. The onsets of temperature decrease in the late 12th century a.d. and temperature increase in the mid 17th century a.d. appear to coincide with occurrences of two destructive earthquakes (1185 and 1662 a.d.) that caused water level changes of Lake Biwa. It suggests that the reconstructed sediment surface temperature history reflects the environmental change due to tectonically induced water level changes of the lake. If the annual mean of the ground surface temperature was higher than that of the bottom water temperature in a shallow part of the lake, which is consistent with the present-day data, the large amplitude of the sediment surface temperature change may be attributed to a combined effect of past climatic and environmental changes. Thus, we suggest that the borehole temperature at the Karasuma site preserves information not only on past climate changes but also on environmental changes due to tectonically induced water level changes.     

Influence of climatic factors on the past atmospheric content of the C-14 isotope

Reconstructions of solar activity in the past epochs based on information on the past atmospheric content of the cosmogenic ¹⁴C isotope are nowadays actively discussed. The ¹⁴C isotope is generated in the atmosphere of the Earth under the influence of cosmic rays, and its concentration in annual tree rings carries information on the past solar activity. However, the concentration of this isotope in annual tree rings may also be influenced by climatic factors. In the present work, the possible correlation between variations in the ¹⁴C atmospheric content and in the Earth’s global temperature from the late 14th century to the middle of the 19th century is studied. It is shown that variations in global temperature may produce changes in the ¹⁴C atmospheric content and consequently have to be taken into account in reconstructions of the past solar activity.     

Characteristics of annual laminae gray level variations in a stalagmite from Shihua Cave, Beijing and its climatic significance (II)

The annual laminae gray level variations in the stalagmite TS9501 of Shihua Cave, Beijing are studied in detail. The environmental factors influencing the laminae gray level are also analyzed. The following conditions may be necessary to the study on the lamina gray level. A) The seasonal differences of climate in the studied area are strong. B) The cave has a rapid and simple hydrological connection with the surface, such that the gray level variation is great; therefore, climatic changes can be more clearly recorded in a stalagmite. C) No water from other sources due to lateral flow adds to the seepage over the cave. D) There are more organic impurities than inorganic ones, whose content changes distinctly with time in the sample. By comparison with the modern instrumental climate records, it was found that the gray level of laminae is mainly related to the air temperature, especially the summer mean temperature. Therefore, the gray level can be used as a proxy of the air temperature. The variation of the lamina gray level also represents the oscillation of Indian summer monsoon as identified in the modern climate records. The variability of the temperature in Beijing area over the last 1 ka is reconstructed. The results show that there are several cold periods corresponding to historical records. An important phenomenon is noticed that the climatic pattern before about 1400AD is different from that after about 1400AD. In Beijing area, before about 1400AD, low amplitude and high frequency temperature oscillations dominated the signal. The climate pattern is warm-dry and cold-wet. After about 1400AD, both the temperature and rainfall varied synchronously, temperature oscillated strongly and the Little Ice Age occurred. The climate pattern is cold-dry and warm-wet. This transition of the climate pattern is also observed in other worldwide paleoclimatic records, demonstrating that there was a global climate event at about 1400AD.     

Evidence for solar forcing in variability of temperatures and pressures in Europe

Daily temperature and pressure series from 55 European meteorological stations covering the 20th century are analyzed. The overall temperature mean displays a sharp minimum near 1940 and a step-like jump near 1987. We evaluate the evolution of disturbances of these series using mean squared inter-annual variations and “lifetimes”. The decadal to secular evolutions of solar activity and temperature disturbances display similar signatures over the 20th century. Because of heterogeneity of the climate system response to solar forcing, regional and seasonal approaches are key to successful identification of these signatures. Most of the solar response is governed by the winter months, as best seen near the Atlantic Ocean. Intensities of disturbances vary by factors in excess of 2, underlining a role for the Sun as a significant forcing factor of European atmospheric variations. We speculate about the possible origin of these solar signatures. The last figure of the paper exemplifies its main results.     

Quantitative recuperation of climatic sequences for the last 200 years in Xingcuo Lake,eastern Tibetan Plateau

The functional relation between theδ18O values in the shell of gastropod Gyraulus sibirica and the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period, and that between Sr/Ca ratio and the precipitation in the warm half-yearly period were established by calibrating the δ18O and δ13C values, Sr/Ca ratio and Mg/Ca ratio in the shell Gyraulus sibirica, as well as the total organic carbon (TOC) and its δ13C values in the Xingcuo Lake sediment in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The sequences of air temperature and precipitation in the last 200 years in the region were quantitatively recuperated on this basis. The results showed the following: (i) There was a negative correlativity between Sr/Ca ratio and the precipitation in the warm half-yearly period, its correlation coefficient was 0.86. (ii) There was an obviously positive correlativity between indexδ18O and the running average temperature in the warm half-yearly period, its correlation coefficient was 0.89. (iii) Evolution of the air temperature and the precipitation in the last 200 years can be divided into three phases distinctly. The precipitation in the later mid-19th century was 220 mm higher than that today; the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period was 2℃ lower than that of the present. The precipitation in the minimum air temperature period of the early 20th century was below that today by 60 mm, and the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period was 3.4℃ lower than that today. (iv) An evidently warming and drying trend existed in the last five decades.     

Archeoseismological investigation of the Kurmenty medieval settlement site,northeastern Issyk-Kul region,Kyrgyzstan

Archeoseismological studies of the Kurmenty settlement have proved the seismogenic origin of the deformation in the walls at this site. The radiocarbon age of the first seismic event damaged the walls of the settlement is 7th century AD. The second seismic event occurred a few centuries later, probably in the late Middle Ages. The strongest seismic events of North Tien Shan occurred in the late 19th–early 20th century as the Chilik (1889, M = 8.4) and Kebin (1911, M = 7.9) also damaged the walls of the Kurmenty settlement. The local shaking intensity during these seismic events was I ≥ VII on MSK-64 scale.     

Late Holocene phases of dome growth and Plinian activity at Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador)

Since the eruption which affected Quito in AD 1660, Guagua Pichincha has been considered a hazardous volcano. Based on field studies and twenty ¹⁴C dates, this paper discusses the eruptive activity of this volcano, especially that of the last 2000 years. Three major Plinian eruptions with substantial pumice discharge occurred in the 1st century, the 10th century, and in AD 1660. The ages of organic paleosols and charcoal from block-and-ash flow and fallout deposits indicate that these eruptions occurred near the end of 100 to 200 year-long cycles of discontinuous activity which was comprised of dome growth episodes and minor pumice fallouts. The first cycle took place from ~ AD 1 to 140. The second one developed during the 9th and 10th centuries, lasted 150–180 yr, and included the largest Plinian event, with a VEI of 5. The third, historic cycle, about 200 yr in duration, includes pyroclastic episodes around AD 1450 and AD 1500, explosive activity between AD 1566 and AD 1582, possible precursors of the 1660 eruption in the early decades of the 17th century, and finally the 1660 eruption (VEI 4). A fourth event probably occurred around AD 500, but its authenticity requires confirmation. The Plinian events occurred at the end of these cycles which were separated by repose periods of at least 300 yr. Older volcanic activity of similar type occurred between ~ 4000 and ~ 3000 yr BP.     

Climate warming and its impact on natural regional boundaries in China in the 1980s

The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-1999, this paper analyses annual and four seasons' temperature variations of China since the 1980s. It was found out that the non-equalibrium response with relative great regional and seasonal differences is represented in the country's climate warming. In regional changes a trend of "warm in the north and cold in the south" occurs whereas in seasonal changes, the characters of "warm in winter and cool in summer" present. Significant verification of the temperature variations conducted in terms of mathematical statistics reveals that a confidence level of over 95% has been basically reached in areas north of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, according to data of diurnal mean temperature steadily passing through accumulated temperature ≥10℃ from 335 stations since 1951 or since the founding of the stations in the early 1950s to 1999, comparative analysis of the data of the last 19 years with that of the first 30 years was conducted and the accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and the variation range of the persistent number of days ≥10℃ were obtained. It was concluded that a general northward shift of central subtropics, north subtropics, warm temperate zone, mesothermal zone and frigid temperate zone of eastern China was observed. The northward shift of north subtropics and warm temperate zone was obvious but changes of south subtropics and marginal tropics were insignificant. In western China, in addition to southwestern Yunnan, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Inner Mongolia where the temperature zones of each either shifted northward or trended to move upward, not much changes were found in other areas or they shifted southward slightly and declined.     

Stratigraphic records of tsunamis along the Japan Sea,southwest Hokkaido,northern Japan

The stratigraphy of tsunami deposits along the Japan Sea, southwest Hokkaido, northern Japan, reveals tsunami recurrences in this particular area. Sandy tsunami deposits are preserved in small valley plains, whereas gravelly deposits of possible tsunami origin are identified in surficial soils covering a Holocene marine terrace and a slope talus. At least five horizons of tsunami events can be defined in the Okushiri Island, the youngest of which immediately overlies the Ko‐d tephra layer (1640 AD) and was likely formed by the historical Oshima‐Ohshima tsunami in 1741 AD. The four older tsunami deposits, dated using accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C, were formed at around the 12th century, 1.5–1.6, 2.4–2.6, and 2.8–3.1 ka, respectively. Tsunami sand beds of the 1741 AD and circa 12th century events are recognized in the Hiyama District of Hokkaido Island, but the older tsunami deposits are missing. The deposits of these two tsunamis are found together at the same sites and distributed in regions where wave heights of the 1993 tsunami (Hokkaido Nansei‐oki earthquake, Mw = 7.7) were less than 3 m. Thus, the 12th century tsunami waves were possibly generated near the south of Okushiri Island, whereas the 1993 tsunami was generated towards the north of the island. The estimated recurrence intervals of paleotsunamis, 200–1100 years with an average of 500 years, likely represents the recurrence interval of large earthquakes which would have occurred along several active faults offshore of southwest Hokkaido.     

Lichenometric dating of debris-flow deposits on alpine colluvial fans in Southwest Norway

Lichenometry provides a suitable means of dating recent debris-flow activity on alpine colluvial fans. Existing growth curves can be used, provided that anomalous thalli are excluded and allowances are made for differences in the growth rates of Rhizocarpon alpieola and Rhizocarpon section Rhizocarpon thalli. The distribution of flow deposits through time is non-random and two periods of increased activity (1670-1720 AD and 1790-1860 AD) can be identified. There is no evidence for a large increase in debris-flow activity in the late 19th century, as has been found in Scotland. This can be attributed to the absence of detrimental landuse practices in the Norwegian study areas.     

The mechanism of the effects of the upwelling mean on the ENSO event mature phase locking

The mechanism of the effects of the upwelling mean on the ENSO event mature phase locking is ex-amined by using a mixed-mode model. The results show that the positive feedback process of the ef-fects of the seasonal variation of the upwelling mean on the Kelvin wave is the mechanism of the locking of the event mature phase to the end of the calendar year. The memory of the Rossby waves for the sign-shifting of the sea surface temperature anomaly from positive to negative 6 months before the cold peak time is the other mechanism of the locking of the La Nia event mature phase to the end of the calendar year. The results here are different from previous ones which suggest that the balance between cold and warm trends of sea surface temperature anomaly is the mechanism involved. The cold trend is caused by the upwelling Kelvin wave from upwelling Rossby wave reflected at the western boundary, excited by the westerly anomaly stress over the central Pacific and amplified by the seasonal variation of the coupled strength in its way propagating westward. The warm trend is caused by the Kelvin wave forced by the western wind stress over the middle and eastern equatorial Pacific. The cause of the differences is due to the opposite phase of the seasonal variation of the upwelling mean to that in the observation and an improper parameterization scheme for the effects of the seasonal varia-tion of the upwelling mean on the ENSO cycle in previous studies.     

洪泽湖和淮河入洪泽湖河口的形成与演化

根据历史文献资料和前人研究成果,对洪泽湖和淮河入洪泽湖河口及三角洲的形成与演化进行了探讨。结果表明,洪泽湖是明,清两代治黄,保运工程的产物和组成部分,现代洪泽湖主要形成于１７世纪的靳治水时期,其形成后百余年中湖水位变化总趋势是不断上升,同时具有大幅度的年内年龄变化。     

Ancient coastal wells of Caesarea Maritima, Israel, an indicator for relative sea level changes during the last 2000 years

During the detailed excavations of ancient Caesarea, Israel, East Mediterranean, 64 coastal water wells have been examined that date from the early Roman period (with the oldest occurring in the 1st century AD), up to the end of the Crusader period (mid-13th century AD). The depths of these coastal water wells establish the position of the ancient water table and therefore the position of sea level for the first century AD up to 1300 AD. The connection between the coastal water table and changes in sea level has been established from modern observations in several wells on time scales of days and months and this is used to reconstruct sea level during historical time. The results indicate that during the Byzantine period, sea level at Caesarea was higher by about 30 cm than today. The Late Moslem and Crusader data shows greater fluctuations but the data sets are also much smaller than for the earlier periods. The consistency of the data indicates that the near-coastal well data from Caesarea provides a reliable indicator of sea-level change, with an accuracy of about 10-15 cm. These results are consistent with observations for earlier periods and, with comparisons to model-predicted glacio-hydro isostatic sea-level change, indicate that ocean volumes have been constant for much of the past 2000 years. The well data is also consistent with an absence of significant vertical tectonic movement of the coast at Caesarea over about 2000 years.     

Hydro-climatology of the Lower Rhône Valley: historical flood reconstruction (AD 1300–2000) based on documentary and instrumental sources

From the HISTRHONE database we extracted 1483 hydro-meteorological events from AD 1300 to 2000 that occurred in the Lower Rhône Valley, France. Daily heights of the Rhône River at Beaucaire and Arles are also available, from 1816 and 1829, respectively. A total of 517 floods were divided into three categories and a synthetic frequency severity index (FSI) was computed. Running averages of 11 and 31 years show a succession of poor and rich flood fluctuations. Extreme floods tripled in the second half of the period (1650–2000). Singular spectrum analysis isolates a dominant irregular component (main positive anomalies in 1450–1580, around 1700, late 18th century, and most of the 20th century). We focus on the 17th century, with rare flooding events between two secular so-called “hyper phases”, i.e. frequent and/or severe floods. We also recorded 173 episodes of ice in the river, during the Little Ice Age.     

Seasonal radiocarbon reservoir ages for the 17th century James River,Virginia estuary

This study utilizes a combined stable isotope and ¹⁴C dating approach to determine the radiocarbon reservoir age correction, ΔR, for the James River, Virginia estuary from 17th century Crassostrea virginica shells of known collection dates. ΔR, which can vary spatially and temporally, is a locality-specific adjustment applied to the global ocean reservoir, R, to further account for the offset between the atmospheric and marine ¹⁴C calibration curves. To assess the temporal variability in ΔR, continuous δ¹⁸O sampling along the oyster shell hinge provides a seasonal record throughout the oyster's life. This is then used to identify sampling locations for ¹⁴C measurements based on calcite precipitated during the Summer (>19 °C) and Fall through Spring (F-Sp, <15 °C) months. The resulting seasonal ΔR values range from −151 ± 46 to +109 ± 55 ¹⁴C years (260 years) due to changes in the contribution and age of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from marine and freshwater sources in the James River estuary. The F-Sp samples display a larger ΔR range than the Summer samples, as do the shells precipitated during drought conditions (1606–1612) when compared to shells from the remainder of the 17th century. The largest intrashell ΔR variability, 195 ¹⁴C years, is similarly found in a drought shell and is attributed to variability caused by the extreme regional 1606–1612 drought. Early land use changes related to European development and farming practices also altered the age of DIC in the James River estuary. We estimate that the soil inorganic carbon (SIC) contributing to freshwater DIC ranged from 0 to ∼1800 years old and reflected both the drought and land use changes that occurred during the 17th century. Using only the Summer samples, which represent the majority of shell calcite, we obtain a mean ΔR = −32 ± 11 ¹⁴C years (1σ) for 17th century James River estuary ΔR at the very onset of European colonization. Employing a seasonally resolved sampling method will provide the greatest constraint on ¹⁴C measurements in an estuarine environment where multiple carbon sources can fluctuate on seasonal timescales and as a result of large scale environmental change.     

East Asia Winter Monsoon changes inferred from environmentally sensitive grain-size component records during the last 2300 years in mud area southwest off Cheju Island,ECS

The last 2000 years are an important time span both for IGBP-PAGES and CLIVAR of WCRP. One of the main aims of these projects is to obtain high-resolution records of global change, such as that stored in ice cores, tree rings, speleothems, corals, lakes, marine records, etc., and then use these data to make sound estimates for future global change. To accomplish these projects, we first need to obtain high-resolution geological records and proxies for climatic/environ- mental changes. …     

Reconstructions of the heliospheric modulation potential and Wolf numbers based on the content of the <Superscript>14</Superscript>C isotope in tree rings during the Maunder and Spörer minimums

Data on variations in the content of the 14C cosmogenic isotope in tree rings and the Earth’s atmosphere (Δ¹⁴C) make it possible to study the behavior of solar activity (SA) in previous centuries and millenniums. The latter is related to the fact that SA temporal variations result in a change in the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) parameters and, as a consequence, in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, under the action of which the ¹⁴C isotope is produced in the Earth’s atmosphere. This makes it possible to study SA history based on data on the ¹⁴C isotope content in tree rings. However, in this case we have several difficulties related to climate change. Climate changes result in carbon redistribution between natural reservoirs, which is reflected in radiocarbon data and results in solar signal distortion. The effect of variations in the global temperature and carbon dioxide concentration on the reconstruction of the heliospheric modulation potential and Wolf numbers from the late 14th century to the early 19th century is considered. It has been shown that the radiocarbon data do not make it possible to conclude that SA during the Maunder minimum was extremely low as compared to SA during the Dalton minimum.