Estimation of the influence that natural fires have on air pollution in the region of Moscow megalopolis based on the combined use of chemical transport model and measurement data

Satellite measurements of the fire radiation power, measurements of atmospheric pollution in the network of GPU Mosekomonitoring stations, and the modern CHIMERE chemical transport model (CHIMERE CTM) are used for estimating the influence that forest fires have on the air pollution level in the Moscow megalopolis region during the summer of 2007. The method by which the radiation power caused by natural fires determined from satellite measurements is converted into emissions of individual model species is described. General problems related to the optimization of estimates of fire emission and the effects caused by them based on the combined use of measurement data on the composition of the atmosphere and the CTM are considered using a concrete example. It is shown, in particular, that the use of the standard least squares method for the optimization of fire emissions from leads in the general case to obtaining biased (underestimated) estimates. The results of calculations consistent with measurements show that forest fires near Moscow can occasionally be responsible for a considerable part of the air pollution observed in Moscow and its vicinities, and they can be the main reason for the high level of atmospheric pollution in some neighboring regions.     

黄、渤海海冰长期变化特征分析

选取渤海、黄海北部冰情等级、冰面积资料和大气环流逐月资料,采用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法,研究海冰长期变化特征及其气候成因。结果发现黄、渤海海冰具有多尺度变化特征,存在低频变化、高频变化和无明显周期的演变过程。西太平洋副高、亚洲极涡以及纬向环流是影响海冰生成与变化的直接因素。黄、渤海海冰还与印度洋副高、北美副高,以及大西洋副高存在显著年代际相关关系。     

Study of the factors determining anomalous variability of carbon dioxide total column amount over St. Petersburg

Results of spectroscopic measurements of the carbon dioxide total column amount near St. Petersburg during forest fires in the period from August to September 2002 are analyzed. The HYSPLIT model is used to calculate air-mass trajectories and CO distribution on a mesoscale in this period. The HYSPLIT model simulations and measurements of carbon dioxide total column amount yield an estimate of the specific intensity of CO emission in a Pskov forest fire on August 28–September 8, 2002, equal to 0.17–0.26 kg m². This estimate can be used for an estimation of the integral CO emission from fires in northwestern Russian forests and for model simulations of atmospheric CO concentration fields. The estimate of the CO emission from forest fires that is obtained from ground-based measurements can also be made on the basis of satellite measurements if they contain information on CO in the lower tropospheric layers (0 to 2 km).     

Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989–2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997–1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.     

Simulation of modern climate with the new version of the INM RAS climate model

The INMCM5.0 numerical model of the Earth’s climate system is presented, which is an evolution from the previous version, INMCM4.0. A higher vertical resolution for the stratosphere is applied in the atmospheric block. Also, we raised the upper boundary of the calculating area, added the aerosol block, modified parameterization of clouds and condensation, and increased the horizontal resolution in the ocean block. The program implementation of the model was also updated. We consider the simulation of the current climate using the new version of the model. Attention is focused on reducing systematic errors as compared to the previous version, reproducing phenomena that could not be simulated correctly in the previous version, and modeling the problems that remain unresolved.     

Water-vapor content in the atmosphere over European Russia during the summer 2010 fires

We study the water vapor (WV) content over European Russia (ER) during the period of forest and peatbog fires in July–August 2010 using total column water vapor observations from MODIS instruments (both Aqua and Terra platforms) as well as aerological data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. It is found that the spatial distribution of total column water vapor (TCWV) over ER in this period was anomalous, with the WV excess in the north of the territory and its deficit in the south of ER. The relationship between WV variations, atmospheric dynamics and the fire situation is analyzed. Along with the processes of the WV advection and evaporation we evaluate the contribution of pyrogenic emission of WV in spatial-temporal evolution of WV over ER during wildfires. The changes of water vapor at different heights in the troposphere and stratosphere are investigated. The results of a comparative analysis of WV contents during the periods of summertime atmospheric blockings in 1972 and 2010 are also presented. The near-infrared total-column precipitable water MODIS products (L3) are validated by upper-air radiosonde data.     

Evaluation of a dynamically downscaled atmospheric reanalyse in the prospect of forcing long term simulations of the ocean circulation in the Gulf of Lions

The paper evaluates atmospheric reanalysis as possible forcing of model simulations of the ocean circulation inter-annual variability in the Gulf of Lions in the Western Mediterranean Sea between 1990 and 2000. The sensitivity of the coastal atmospheric patterns to the model resolution is investigated using the REMO regional climate model (18 km, 1 h), and the recent global atmospheric reanalysis ERA40 (125 km, 6 h). At scales from a few years to a few days, both atmospheric data sets exhibit a very similar weather, and agreement between REMO and ERA40 is especially good on the seasonal cycle and at the daily variability scale. At smaller scales, REMO reproduces more realistic spatio-temporal patterns in the ocean forcing: specific wind systems, particular atmospheric behaviour on the shelf, diurnal cycle, sea-breeze. Ocean twin experiments (1990–1993) clearly underline REMO skills to drive dominant oceanic processes in this microtidal area. Finer wind patterns induce a more realistic circulation and hydrology of the shelf water: unique shelf circulation, upwelling, temperature and salinity exchanges at the shelf break. The hourly sampling of REMO introduces a diurnal forcing which enhances the behaviour of the ocean mixed layer. In addition, the more numerous wind extremes modify the exchanges at the shelf break: favouring the export of dense shelf water, enhancing the mesoscale variability and the interactions of the along slope current with the bathymetry.     

Estimates of carbon monoxide emissions from wildfires in northern Eurasia for airquality assessment and climate modeling

The emissions from fires in the boreal zone of northern Eurasia significantly contribute to the global emissions of greenhouse gases, their precursors, and aerosols. These emissions are an important component of the global carbon balance, and they significantly affect both seasonal and long-term variations in the chemical composition and radiation properties of the atmosphere on both regional and global scales. The atmospheric emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) from biomass burning have systematically been estimated for the entire territory of northern Eurasia over the period of 2000–2008 on the basis of satellite (MODIS MCD45A1) data on burned vegetation and the Seiler-Crutzen emission model with consideration for both regional and seasonal features. On the whole, for Russia, the annual emissions of CO from biomass burning ranged from 10.6 to 88.2 Mt/y over the indicated period. Depending on fire activity, the atmospheric emissions of CO from natural fires and agricultural work may yield from 25 to 200% of the total technogenic emissions according to the EDGAR-2000 model. In this case, the dominant contribution is made by boreal forest fires (8–57 Mt/y), whose portion amounts to 63–76% of the total emissions from biomass burning. This relatively short observational series does not allow one to reliably estimate long-term variations; however, on the whole, a stable increase in burned areas has been observed in forest, steppe, and agricultural regions over the last decade. Our analysis suggests significant spatial and seasonal variations in the large-scale fields of fire emissions, which are determined by the physical, geographic, and climatic features of individual regions. The calculated fields of emissions can be used in transport-chemical models, studies of the regional transport and quality of air, and climate models.     

Methane cycle in the INM RAS climate model

The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with the carbon cycle is coupled to a model of methane evolution, in which methane sources in the soil of wetlands and methane evolution in the atmosphere are calculated. A numerical experiment on the simulation of climate and methane-cycle changes in 1860–2100 has been conducted with the model forced by methane emissions prescribed from scenario A1B. The distribution of the sources of methane from soil agrees with the available estimates and amounts to about 240 Mt/year in the 20th century. The methane flux from soil increases to 340 Mt/year by the end of the 21st century. The model adequately reproduces an increase in the atmospheric methane concentration from 800 ppb in 1860 to about 1800 ppb in 2000, but does not produce the observed stabilization of methane concentration in the early 21st century. By 2060, the methane concentration in the model attains 2700 ppb. The increase in atmospheric methane concentration is due mainly to anthropogenic emissions. A similar numerical experiment with fixed sources of methane from soil at the 1860–1900 level suggests that the maximum methane concentration in the model in this case could amount to 2400 ppb. A temperature increase at the end of the 21st century relative to the 19th century is 3.5° for a simulated change in the methane flux from soil and 0.25° less for a fixed methane flux.     

Atmospheric-induced variability of hydrological and biogeochemical signatures in the NW Alboran Sea. Consequences for the spawning and nursery habitats of European anchovy

The north-western Alboran Sea is a highly dynamic region in which the hydrological processes are mainly controlled by the entrance of the Atlantic Jet (AJ) through the Strait of Gibraltar. The biological patterns of the area are also related to this variability in which atmospheric pressure distributions and wind intensity and direction play major roles. In this work, we studied how changes in atmospheric forcing (from high atmospheric pressure over the Mediterranean to low atmospheric pressure) induced alterations in the physical and biogeochemical environment by re-activating coastal upwelling on the Spanish shore. The nursery area of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the NW Alboran Sea, confirmed to be the very coastal band around Malaga Bay, did not show any drastic change in its biogeochemical characteristics, indicating that this coastal region is somewhat isolated from the rest of the basin. Our data also suggests that anchovy distribution is tightly coupled to the presence of microzooplankton rather than mesozooplankton. Finally, we use detailed physical and biological information to evaluate a hydrological-biogeochemical coupled model with a specific hydrological configuration to represent the Alboran basin. This model is able to reproduce the general circulation patterns in the region forced by the AJ movements only including two variable external forcings; atmospheric pressure over the western Mediterranean and realistic wind fields.     

Numerical modeling of hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea under the conditions of alternation of atmospheric circulation processes

The hydrological regime of the Black Sea in the conditions of permanent alternation of atmospheric circulation processes was investigated on the basis of a baroclinic prognostic model of the sea dynamics. In the model, variations in the wind action were expressed as permanent alternation of 24 wind types characteristic of the Black Sea basin throughout the year. Thermohaline impact of the atmosphere was taken into account by specifying the annual trends of temperature and salinity at the sea surface, which was established from multiyear means of these parameters. The problem was solved numerically on the basis of the method of two-cycle splitting with the use of the grid with a horizontal spacing of 5 km. Results of the numerical experiment showed that, under the influence of a strong nonstationarity of atmospheric processes, the water circulation in the upper layer of the Black Sea changes qualitatively and quantitatively. The upper 20–30-m layer of the sea is particularly sensitive to atmospheric circulation variations. For any character of atmospheric circulation, the Black Sea circulation below this layer is nearly always cyclonic with internal cyclonic rotations.     

ENSO事件次表层海温的两个模态及其对大气环流的影响

利用SODA海洋同化资料和NCEP再分析大气资料,分析了热带太平洋次表层海温异常(subsurfaceoceantemperatureanomaly,SOTA)与厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(ElNi?o-SouthernOscillation,ENSO)循环的联系,及SOTA对大气环流的影响。回顾传统ENSO研究,指出存在的问题,提出了ENSO影响大气研究的新思路,得到以下结果:(1)以SOTA为基本资料的研究发现, ENSO事件有两个模态,主要出现在冬季的第一模态对冬季及夏季亚洲-北太平洋-北美地区上空中高纬大气环流有重要影响,主要出现在夏季的第二模态对该地区上空夏季热带和副热带大气系统有重要作用。(2)ENSO事件通过与ENSO相联系的热带太平洋海面温度异常(ENSO-relatedseasurface temperatureanomaly,RSSTA)对大气的异常热通量输送,强迫Walker环流和Hadley环流变化,导致热带和北太平洋及周边地区上空大气环流异常,进而影响相关地区冬季和夏季的气候。(3)海表面温度异常(seasurfacetemperatureanomaly,SSTA)包含RSSTA和大气异常导致的海温变化(sea temperature anomaly caused by atmospheric anomaly, STA)两部分, RSSTA是ENSO事件过程中海洋内部热动力结构调整导致的海面温度变化,在海洋对大气的热输送过程中,它随ENSO事件演变不断更新;STA是大气受RSSTA海洋异常加热后导致的大气环流异常对海面温度的影响,在海洋浅表层STA对RSSTA有重大影响。本文最后讨论了ENSO事件期间热带海洋对大气热输送过程,指出ENSO事件通过海洋内部热动力结构调整产生RSSTA,它直接对大气异常加热,导致大气环流和气候异常,局地海气之间负反馈过程产生STA,反过来抑制RSSTA。结果还指出,人们常用的SSTA变率实际上主要由秋冬季节RSSTA主导,丢失了春夏季ENSO信息,用SSTA研究ENSO事件存在局限性,这也可能是ENSO事件春季预报障碍的原因之一。     

Numerical simulation of a quasi-tropical cyclone over the Black Sea

The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and its evolution and physical formation mechanisms are discussed. The balances of the momentum components have been estimated, and sensitivity experiments have been performed. It is shown that, according to its main physical properties and energy supply mechanisms, the cyclone can be related to quasi-tropical cyclones.     

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with the carbon cycle

Results from numerical experiments with an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model coupled to the carbon evolution cycle are analyzed. The model is used to carry out an experiment on the simulation of the climate and carbon cycle change in 1861–2100 under a specified scenario of the carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuel and land use. The spatial distribution of vegetation, soil, and oceanic carbon in the 20th century is generally close to available estimates from observational data. The model adequately reproduces the observed growth of atmospheric CO₂ in the 20th century and the uptake of excess carbon by land ecosystems and by the ocean in the 1980s and 1990s. By 2100, the atmospheric CO₂ concentration is calculated to reach 742 ppmv under emission and land-use scenario A1B. The feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle in the model is positive, with a coefficient close to the mean of all the current models. The ocean and land uptakes of the CO₂ emission by 2100 in the model are 25 and 19%, which are also close to the mean over all models.     

Fires in the Altai-Sayan region: Landscape and ecological confinement

Spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation fires in the Russian part of Altai-Sayan region over the period of instrumental satellite observations (1996–2014) have been studied. The distribution of fires by landscape categories, natural zones, altitudinal belts, and terrain profile forms is presented. We estimate the confinement of fire development in forests dominated by dark coniferous, light coniferous, and deciduous forest stands. The results are standardized taking into account the ratio between plant-cover areas of the selected categories, classes, and zones in the region. We have found an exponential decrease in the number of fires in the area of transition from plains and lowlands to highlands. Middle mountains are characterized by the largest burnt areas. Up to 50% of all fires are observed in the northern and adjacent slopes. The fire occurrence on concave slopes is 40% higher than that on convex slopes. The logarithmic growth in the number of burnt areas and fire frequency was found for all natural zones (forest, steppe, and forest steppe); the greatest seasonal variability in fire frequency and fire statistics is observed in the forest-steppe zone of the region. It is shown that the spatial distribution of fires is in agreement with the selected climatic facies. On the whole, the long-term dynamics of forest burning in the Altai-Sayan region and Siberia is strongly related to the variation of meteorological parameters characterizing climatic changes.     

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980–2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.     

Numerical modeling of the Arctic Ocean ice system response to variations in the atmospheric circulation from 1948 to 2007

The results of model calculations aimed at reproducing climate changes in the Arctic Ocean due to variations in the atmospheric circulation are presented. The combined ocean-ice numerical model is based on NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and its modified version of CIAF on the state of the lower atmosphere, radiative fluxes, and precipitation from 1948 to the present. The numerical experiments reveal the effect of the ice cover, water circulation, and thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean on variations in the state of the atmosphere. We found the heating and cooling periods in the Atlantic water layer, as well as the freshwater accumulation regimes in the Canadian Basin and freshwater flow through the Fram Strait and Canadian Archipelago straits. The numerical model reproduces a reconfiguration of the water circulation of the surface and intermediate layers of the ocean, a shift in the boundary between Atlantic and Pacific waters, and a significant reduction of the ice area.     

地球系统模式FIO-ESM v2.0对北太平洋年代际气候变化的模拟评估

数值模拟方法在研究长时间的气候变化上扮演着重要角色。一直以来,数值模式模拟年代际气候变化如太平洋年代际震荡（PDO）的位相转换存在巨大挑战。本文利用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式（First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model Version 2,FIO-ESM v2.0）145年（1870–2014年）历史气候模拟试验结果,结合再分析资料和另外两个地球系统模式结果,分析评估了该模式对太平洋年代际振荡的模拟能力。研究发现,FIO-ESM v2.0能够再现历史时期PDO的空间模态分布特征,其PDO指数具有10～30年的周期变化特征,同时于1960年以后能刻画出与再分析数据结果相近的PDO位相转变特征。研究表明,FIO-ESM v2.0能够较为准确地模拟出PDO的位相转变特征。另外,本文还评估了该模式对大气环流模态的模拟能力及其与PDO之间的关系,以及该模式模拟PDO的可能机制。该模式的PDO与大气环流的阿留申低压模态相关。进一步的分析表明,平流作用和热通量是关键年代际海域海温异常振幅的主要因素,而罗斯贝波西传时间则可能是影响PDO位相转变的关键因素。     

On One Estimate of the Boundary of the Rossby Regime Zone in the Atmosphere

A two-zone model of the atmospheric circulation over the hemisphere is considered. The geographic latitude φ of the boundary between the Rossby circulation regime zone at middle and high latitudes and the Hadley circulation regime zone at low latitudes serves as a model variable. The closeness between the actual and reference (exponential) air-mass distribution over the hemisphere, with respect to Ertel’s modified potential vorticity (MPV), is accounted for. The informational entropy of the statistical MPV distribution in the hemispheric atmosphere and the informational entropy of the eddy regime in the basic storm-track zone are used to determine a statistically (climatically) equilibrium value of φ. The question of atmospheric blocking over the hemisphere is considered using the proposed statistical–dynamical model.     

2005年7月北极地区大气环流特征的数值研究

利用一个极地中尺度数值模式(Polar MM5)对北极地区大气环流进行了2005年7月17-19日48 h的中尺度数值模拟研究。数值分析表明,2005年7月19日500 hPa高度上,北冰洋上空北极点以东由一个冷低压控制,在极点以西则是一个暖性高压系统,在地面图上对应的则是一个气旋性环流和反气旋性环流;整个极区呈现出高(反气旋)-低(气旋)-低(气旋)-高(反气旋)的波动分布型态。选择了5个北极地区探空站与相应温度场和风场的数值模拟结果进行了对比;气象变量统计分析和垂直分布表明了数值模式很好地再现了观测大气特征,表现为小的模式偏差和较高的相关系数。在Barrow站2 m处空气温度,感热通量和潜热通量具有明显的日变化特征,PolarMM5还有效地反映出此处极地逆温层和下降风的垂直结构特征。