Quantitative assessment on the influence of heavy rainfall on the crystalline schist landslide by monitoring system -case study on Zentoku landslide, Japan

On Shikoku Island, which is one of the four main islands of Japan, a large number of large-scale crystalline schist landslides have been revealed and are being monitored by an observation system. Seasonal heavy rainfall is the most active meteorological factor that can threaten the stability of this kind of site-specific landslide. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the rainfall-related behavior of a typical crystalline schist landslide, the Zentoku landslide, by analyzing the precisely and continuously observed piezometric and movement data, a method was developed to quantitatively assess the effect of heavy rainfall on a large-scale landslide. The results indicated that heavy rainfall-induced landslide displacement shows good correlation with the variation of groundwater levels. Variations of groundwater level have been simulated with the use of a tank model. The simulation using this model permits the change in water levels for future rainfall events to be predicted. By combining the predicted results with the empirical relation between displacements and water levels, rainfall-induced landslide movement during extreme rainfall events can be estimated in advance. The effect of heavy rainfall on sliding behavior can be quantified in terms of the change in displacement. Thus warning information or advisories for the local residents can be provided.     

Mechanism of creep movement caused by landslide activity and underground erosion in crystalline schist, Shikoku Island, southwestern Japan

The mechanism of creep movement of the Zentoku landslide in crystalline schist has not been studied in detail because of the steepness of the slope, very slow movement, low population density and complex topographic and geologic characteristics. Sassa et al. (1980: Proc. INTERPRAEVENT 1, 85–106) and Sassa (1984: Proc. 4th International Symp. on Landslides, Toronto, vol. 2, pp. 179–184; 1985. Geotechnical classification of landslides, Proc. 4th International Conference and Field Workshop on Landslides, Tokyo, pp. 31–40; 1989: Landslide News, Japan Landslide Society, No. 3, pp. 21–24) monitored landslide movement and groundwater level at the Zentoku landslide on Shikoku Island, southwestern Japan, and suggested that the mechanism may be caused by underground erosion. To study the influence of underground erosion at this site, continual monitoring of suspended sediment and water discharge from a groundwater outlet (i.e. a spring) was implemented. The locations of groundwater flow paths were determined, as were the amounts of discharged sediment. Slope deformation was monitored by means of a borehole inclinometer. The conclusions were as follows: (1) the flow paths were found to be on or above the shear zones in which underground erosion has occurred; (2) in addition to being a result of precipitation and groundwater discharge, sediment discharge is affected by landslide activity; and (3) the mechanism of creep movement is an interrelated chain process that combines underground erosion caused by landslide activity with landslide activity caused by underground erosion. Thus, landslide activity increases erosion susceptibility and transportation of soils within the mass, and underground erosion causes instability of the landslide mass, in turn.

This mechanism can explain the observed phenomenon that the Zentoku landslide not only moves actively during heavy rain, but also continues to creep throughout the year.     

日本结晶片岩滑坡的活动特点及与降雨的关系

日本四国地区分布有大量具有独特地质条件和活动特征的结晶片岩滑坡。长期的实地观测结果表明,季节性的集中降雨是影响此类滑坡活动的主要因素。文章基于对此类滑坡活动观测资料和降雨资料的综合分析,阐述了结晶片岩滑坡的活动特点以及集中降雨对其的影响作用。通过对有效雨量和滑坡位移等反映降雨影响和滑坡活动状况参数的分析,揭示了集中降雨与滑坡活动之间的关系,并且确定了对该地区滑坡活动产生影响的降雨特征,为此类滑坡灾害的防治与管理提供了依据和评价指标。     

四川雅安市雨城区降雨诱发滑坡研究

降雨是滑坡灾害的重要诱发因素之一。通过详细的地质灾害调查及地质灾害与降雨相关关系的研究,得出降雨对雅安雨城区地质灾害诱发作用的规律并进一步定量评价了诱发因素级别。研究发现,降雨量对滑坡的诱发因素可划分为4级,1d降雨量分级临界值分别为20mm、50mm和100mm,3d降雨量分级临界值分别为100mm、150mm和240mm。这一研究成果为雅安雨城区地质灾害预警预报提供了基础。     

Crustal structure, fault segmentation, and activity of the Median Tectonic Line in Shikoku, Japan

We conducted a seismic tomographic analysis to estimate the crustal structure beneath the Shikoku and Chugoku regions in Japan. The Philippine Sea slab (PHS slab) subducts continuously in a SE–NW direction beneath this region, and the crustal structure is complex. Furthermore, the Median Tectonic Line (MTL), one of the longest and most active arc-parallel fault systems in Japan (hereafter, the MTL active fault system), is located in this area, and the right-lateral strike–slip movement of this fault system is related to the oblique subduction of the PHS slab. The MTL active fault system has ruptured repeatedly during the last 10 000 years, and has high seismic potential. Our tomographic analysis clarified the heterogeneous crustal structure along the MTL active fault system. This fault system in Shikoku can be divided into two segments, an east segment and a west segment, on the basis of the velocity structure. This segmentation model is consistent with other such models that have been determined from geological and geomorphological data such as fault geometry, slip rate, and faulting history. This consistency suggests that the surface characteristics of the MTL active fault system are related to structural properties of the crust. In particular, a prominent low-velocity (low-V) zone is present in the lower crust beneath the east segment. Our tomographic images show that the lower crust structure beneath the east segment is obviously different from that of the other segment. Furthermore, this low-V zone may indicate the presence of fluid, possibly related to dehydration of the PHS slab. As the presence of fluid in the lower crust affects the activity of the fault, stress accumulation and the fault failure mechanism may differ between the two segments of the MTL active fault system.     

Jadeite–garnet glaucophane schists in the Bizan area,Sambagawa metamorphic belt,eastern Shikoku,Japan: significance and extent of eclogite facies metamorphism

Eclogite facies metamorphic rocks have been discovered from the Bizan area of eastern Shikoku, Sambagawa metamorphic belt. The eclogitic jadeite–garnet glaucophane schists occur as lenticular or sheet‐like bodies in the pelitic schist matrix, with the peak mineral assemblage of garnet + glaucophane + jadeite + phengite + quartz. The jadeitic clinopyroxene (X_Jd 0.46–0.75) is found exclusively as inclusions in porphyroblastic garnet. The eclogite metamorphism is characterized by prograde development from epidote–blueschist to eclogite facies. Metamorphic P–T conditions estimated using pseudosection modelling are 580–600 °C and 18–20 kbar for eclogite facies. Compared with common mafic eclogites, the jadeite–garnet glaucophane schists have low CaO (4.4–4.5 wt%) and MgO (2.1–2.3 wt%) bulk‐rock compositions. The P–T– pseudosections show that low X_Ca bulk‐rock compositions favour the appearance of jadeite instead of omphacite under eclogite facies conditions. This is a unique example of low X_Ca bulk‐rock composition triggered to form jadeite at eclogite facies conditions. Two significant types of eclogitic metamorphism have been distinguished in the Sambagawa metamorphic belt, that is, a low‐T type and subsequent high‐T type eclogitic metamorphic events. The jadeite–garnet glaucophane schists experienced low‐T type eclogite facies metamorphism, and the P–T path is similar to lawsonite‐bearing eclogites recently reported from the Kotsu area in eastern Shikoku. During subduction of the oceanic plate (Izanagi plate), the hangingwall cooled gradually, and the geothermal gradient along the subduction zone progressively decreased and formed low‐T type eclogitic metamorphic rocks. A subsequent warm subduction event associated with an approaching spreading ridge caused the high‐T type eclogitic metamorphism within a single subduction zone.     

走滑断裂型地震诱发的滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布差异

以玉树地震滑坡为实例,选择高程、坡度、坡向、坡位、水系、地层岩性、同震地表破裂、地震动峰值加速度(PGA)8个因子,以地震滑坡面积百分比(LAP)与滑坡点密度(LND)为指标,研究走滑断裂型地震诱发滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布差异。在分析这些影响因子的断裂两盘的差异的基础上,基于LAP与LND两个指标详细分析断裂两盘每个因子内部级别滑坡发育的情况。结果表明,总体上北盘的滑坡较南盘发育,除了个别因子级别内南北盘滑坡差别较大外,大部分表现为南北盘滑坡分布情况类似。总之,玉树地震滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布基本类似,只是在某些因子分级内存在一定的差异。     

走滑断裂型地震诱发的滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布差异

以玉树地震滑坡为实例,选择高程、坡度、坡向、坡位、水系、地层岩性、同震地表破裂、地震动峰值加速度(PGA)8个因子,以地震滑坡面积百分比(LAP)与滑坡点密度(LND)为指标,研究走滑断裂型地震诱发滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布差异。在分析这些影响因子的断裂两盘的差异的基础上,基于LAP与LND两个指标详细分析断裂两盘每个因子内部级别滑坡发育的情况。结果表明,总体上北盘的滑坡较南盘发育,除了个别因子级别内南北盘滑坡差别较大外,大部分表现为南北盘滑坡分布情况类似。总之,玉树地震滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布基本类似,只是在某些因子分级内存在一定的差异。     

基于确定性系数方法的龙门山地区地震滑坡影响因子敏感性分析——以汶川地震与芦山地震诱发滑坡为例

在我国西南地区,沿龙门山断裂带分别发生了2008年汶川M_S8.0级地震以及2013年芦山M_S7.0级地震,这两次地震均造成了严重的地表破裂,并诱发了大量的滑坡和崩塌等次生地质灾害。文章选择了位于青藏高原向四川盆地过渡的区域——以龙门山断裂带为中心的30°~34°N,102°~106°E区域作为研究区,借助GIS工具,基于确定性系数（CF）方法,选取了地震、地质构造、自然环境和人类活动4大类因子,包括烈度、震中距、岩性、断裂、高程、坡度、坡向、河流、降雨、公路共10个因子（子集）,对汶川和芦山地震诱发的次生滑坡灾害进行影响因子敏感性分析,基于z值确定该区域内地震滑坡的关键因子类以及基于CF值确定各类集（子集）下各特定因子的具体地震滑坡敏感性。研究结果显示：地震因子具有最高的z值,是龙门山地区地震滑坡产生的关键影响因子,表明地震活动的强弱直接关系到斜坡的稳定性和次生滑坡灾害的面积分布。而对比烈度子集中的具体CF值表明：当烈度小于Ⅷ度时,烈度对次生滑坡发生的影响极低,区域内的主要影响因子则由地震因子转变为震中距、自然因子等其他类别的因子;其次以坡度、高程、与河流的距离为主的自然因子类别以及与断层的距离在地震滑坡过程中也有较高权重,而人类活动对研究区内坡体的稳定性也有着不可忽略的作用。本研究结果可作为该地区后续区域地震滑坡相关研究和发展规划的基础科学依据。

     

Geochemistry and Origin of Ananai Stratiform Manganese Deposit in the Northern Chichibu Belt, Central Shikoku, Japan

Abstract. Major and trace element contents are reported for Permian manganese ore and associated greenstone from the Ananai manganese deposit in the Northern Chichibu Belt, central Shikoku, Japan. The manganese deposit occurs between greenstone and red chert, or among red chert beds. Chemical compositions of manganese ore are characterized by enrichments in Mn, Ca, P, Co, Ni, Zn, Sr and Ba, and negative Ce and positive Eu anomalies relative to post-Archean average Australian Shale (PAAS). Geochemical features of the manganese ore are similar to those of modern submarine hydrother-mal manganese deposits from volcanic arc or hotspot setting. In addition, geochemical characteristics of the greenstone closely associated with the Ananai manganese deposit are analogous to those of with-in plate alkaline basalt (WPA). Consequently, the Ananai manganese deposit was most likely formed by hydrothermal activity related to hotspot volcanism in the Panthalassa Ocean during the Middle Permian. This is the first report documenting the terrestrially-exposed manganese deposit that was a submarine precipitate at hotspot.     

The influence of the geological and geomorphological settings on shallow landslides. An example in a temperate climate environment: the June 19, 1996 event in northwestern Tuscany (Italy)

On June 19, 1996, an extremely heavy rainstorm hit a restricted area in the Apuan Alps (northwestern Tuscany, Italy). Its max intensity concentrated over an area of about 150 km² astride the Apuan chain, where 474 mm was recorded in about 12 h (21% of the mean annual precipitation, with an intensity up to 158 mm/h). The storm caused floods and hundreds of landslides and debris flows, which produced huge damage (hundreds of millions of Euros), partially destroyed villages and killed 14 people. This paper reports the results obtained from a detailed field survey and aerial view interpretation. In the most severely involved area, 647 main landslides were investigated, mapped and related to the geologic, geomorphic and vegetational factors of the source areas. This was in order to define the influence of these factors and contribute to an evaluation of the landslide hazard in the study area. An assessment was also made of the total area and volume of material mobilised by landsliding. The study area, about 46 km² wide, includes three typically mountainous basins, characterised by narrow, deep cut valleys and steep slopes, where many rock types outcrop. Most of the landslides were shallow and linear, referable to complex, earth and debris translational slide, which quickly developed into flow (soil slip–debris flow). Usually, they involved colluvium and started in hollows underlain by metamorphic rock (metasandstone and phyllite), often dipping downslope. Therefore, bedrock lithology and impermeability appeared to be important factors in the localisation of the landslide phenomena. The investigation of the geomorphic and land use features in the source areas also frequently highlighted a rectilinear profile of the slope, a high slope gradient (31–45°) and dense chestnut wood cover. In the area, about 985,000 m² (2.1% of 46 km²) was affected by landsliding and about 700,000 m² of this area was covered by chestnut forest. The landslides removed about 7000 trees. The volume of mobilised material was about 1,360,000 m³; about 220,000 m³ remained on the slopes, while the rest poured into the streams. In addition, about 945,000 m³ was mobilised by the torrential erosion in the riverbeds.     

The large-scale landslide on the flank of caldera in South Sulawesi, Indonesia

An extraordinarily large-scale landslide with a volume of about 200 million m³, a width of about 1,600 m, and a height of about 750 m occurred on 2004 March 26, 13:45 local time, on a steep caldera wall on the northwest flank of Mt. Bawakaraeng (2,830 m) at the headwater of the Jeneberang River in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The debris avalanche extended about 7 km from the headwater and buried the river valley, causing devastating damage. There are a great many calderas in the world, notably Japan. If a large-scale sector collapse were to occur in a heavily populated area, it would be a devastating disaster for the people living in the area. The aim of this paper is to outline such a landslide and explain its mechanism of occurrence. We evaluated the stability of the original slope before the landslide using the limit equilibrium method and the finite-element-based shear strength reduction method (SSRFEM) with the strength reduction factor. The limit equilibrium method showed that a rise in the groundwater level caused the landslide. Although the critical slip surface predicted by the SSRFEM was shallower than that of the actual slip surface, the end positions of the actual and predicted slip surfaces were almost the same. Moreover, the end position of the critical slip surface before the landslide—the headwater of the Jeneberang River—was a knick point at which the slope inclination became steeper. SSRFEM analysis may be useful for evaluating the slope stability of large-scale landslides, because the critical slip surface predicted by it was close to the actual surface, even though we assumed homogenous conditions without information on the degree of weathering or ground properties. As the knick point formed at the end of the critical slip surface and is equivalent to the end of the actual slip surface, we assume such topographic features to be a primary geomorphologic cause of the landslide.     

基于H-P滤波法、ARIMA和VAR模型的库区滑坡位移综合预测

受库水位涨落及降雨等影响,库区滑坡位移表现出明显的周期性。基于位移时间序列分析,将滑坡监测位移分解为趋势项与周期项之和。趋势项反映滑坡变形的长期趋势,其主要受滑坡本身地质结构等因素影响。周期项反映滑坡变形的波动性,其主要受外部因素影响。以三峡库区巫山塔坪滑坡为例,考虑长江水位与降雨量影响,采用H-P滤波法从滑坡位移中分解出趋势项及周期项,利用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）对趋势项进行平稳处理并计算趋势项预测值,利用向量自回归模型（VAR）计算周期项预测值。趋势项预测值与周期项预测值之和为滑坡位移预测值。与实际监测值及多种方法分析比较,表明综合预测所得结果能较好反映滑坡变形的趋势性和波动性,位移预测效果较好。     

The influence of large-scale circulations on the extremely inactive tropical cyclone activity in 2010 over the western North Pacific

This study attempts to understand why the frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) was a record low during the 2010 season, by analyzing the effect of several large-scale factors. The genesis potential index (GPI) can represent, to some extent, the spatial distribution of formation in 2010. However, the GPI does not explain the extremely low TC frequency. No robust relationship between the TC number and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found. A comparison of the extreme inactive TC year 2010 and extreme active year 1994 was performed, based on the box difference index that can measure the quantitative difference of large-scale environmental factors. Dynamic factors were found to be important in differentiating TC formation over the WNP basin between 2010 and 1994. The remarkable difference of monsoon flows in the WNP basin between these two years may be the cause of the difference in TC formation. The unfavorable conditions for TC genesis in 2010 may have also been due to other large scale factors such as: (1) weak activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during the peak season; (2) warming of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean during the peak season, causing the development of an anticyclone over the WNP basin and associated with the westward motion of the monsoon trough, and (3) the phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (more negative) and the two strong La Niña events that have evolved since 2006.     

Quantitative monitoring of aquatic humic substances in Lake Biwa,Japan, using the DAX-8 batch method based on carbon concentrations

Aquatic humic substances (AHS) have been intensively studied because they have a number of significant biogeochemical functions in water chemistry. In order to evaluate such functions, which are regulated by their quantity and quality, a quantitative understanding of AHS is necessary. This study shows the seasonal and vertical changes in the AHS concentration in Lake Biwa, the largest monomictic lake in Japan, over 4 years. The concentration of dissolved organic matter carbon (DOM-C) and AHS carbon (AHS-C) ranged from 0.85–1.6 mg C/l and 0.32–0.71 mg C/l, respectively. The percentages of AHS-C in the DOM-C ranged from 32% to 65%. At all depths, the DOM-C decreased and the AHS-C slightly increased or remained at nearly the same level, suggesting that the quality of the water may have changed mainly due to changes in the composition of the organic matter. Although the AHS-C to DOM-C ratio fluctuated and had no seasonal tendency, the average AHS-C ratio increased during the 4 year monitoring period. Because AHS can influence the entire food web starting with phytoplankton, unraveling the mechanism by which they accumulate remains an important goal.     

云南小江流域滑坡关键影响因子研究

确定诱发滑坡失稳的关键因素是滑坡研究的一个重要内容。采用不同影响因子图层进行危险性分区结果存在明显差异,这是由于第一因子对于滑坡变形失稳的贡献程度不同,即不同影响因子与滑坡的相关性不同。在进行滑坡灾害分析时,必须首先确定影响滑坡的关键因子以建立准确的统计分析模型。采用滑坡确定性系数的合并检验方法,在GIS中对云南小江流域进行了滑坡影响因子分析,并确定了影响滑坡的关键性因子。据此建立的多元统计分析预测模型经检验具有较高精度,要以为小江流域的灾害防治、规划建设提供科学依据。     

包气带土壤组成对三氯乙烯的吸附影响研究

有机质和矿物质是包气带土壤中的主要吸附介质,其吸附特性直接影响有机污染物在环境中的迁移、转化等过程。分别采用分析纯石英砂和典型粘土矿物高岭石模拟土壤的原生矿物和粘土矿物,利用批实验的方法研究土壤中各组成部分对三氯乙烯(TCE)的吸附行为。土壤有机质的吸附行为通过全土样和矿物质的对比得出。结果表明,粘土矿物是吸附氯代烃的主要矿物质,原生矿物对氯代烃的吸附量很小;土壤有机质含量和土壤吸附量之间有很好的正相关性;土壤有机碳含量与土壤粘土矿物含量的比值是影响吸附行为的另一重要因素,比值越小,Koc值越大,土壤对TCE的亲和力就越强。由于自然界中的土壤有机质大都与矿物质形成有机质-粘土矿物结合体,据此推测有机质-矿物质结合体会影响有机质的组成和形态,从而对其吸附行为有重要作用。     

The influence of seismotectonics on precursory changes in groundwater composition for the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan

It is shown that temporal variation in hydrochemistry may be attributed, in part, to continuous seismotectonic activity occurring before the onset of the 1995 “Kobe” earthquake, Japan, challenging the “one earthquake–one signal” hypothesis with respect to potential precursory signals to this devastating event. A possible continuous seismotectonic influence on chloride and sulphate ion-concentration is evaluated with aggregate earthquake-information by transforming a multivariate earthquake time series (including coordinates and magnitude) into a one-dimensional time series (considering geometric relationships between earthquakes and the well-site). A piecewise analysis of ion-concentration and seismotectonic-activity time series compares trends and change points between the two time series: a positive correlation (before the proposed onset of the preparation stage) is followed by a negative correlation (during the proposed preparation stage) which, in turn, is succeeded by a positive correlation (after the heaviest aftershock sequences). This suggests that seismotectonic processes occurring before the Kobe earthquake dynamically influenced aquifer characteristics, leading to temporal variations in the hydrochemical time series. Accordingly, a dynamic change in the mixing ratios of waters with different hydrochemical characteristics is proposed as a mechanism for explaining observed variation. The research can be extended by considering vectors in the stress field that lead to changes in the aquifer-well system.The influence of seismotectonics on precursory changes in groundwater composition for the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan.     

黑龙江省东部跃进山群中绿片岩的地球化学特征及地质意义

跃进山群出露位于佳木斯地块和那丹哈达地体之间，是完达山造山带的组成部分。它由大陆斜坡相沉积物、大洋中脊型玄武岩和洋岛型玄武岩组成，其中有镁铁－超镁铁质岩块体。它不是一个地层单位，而是与活动大陆边缘板块俯冲作用有关的蛇绿混杂岩     

胶东乳山金矿蚀变岩中绢云母40Ar/39Ar年龄及其对金成矿事件的制约

胶东乳山金矿是我国单脉金储量最大的矿床,金的成矿具有多期多阶段的特点。为了研究早期矿化的时代,利用绢云母40Ar/39Ar法测定了乳山金矿含矿脉体旁围岩蚀变带中的绢英岩年龄。结果表明,围岩花岗岩的强烈绢英岩化蚀变年龄为129 Ma,比金发生大规模沉淀的成矿时间早约10 Ma,表明乳山金矿是多期热液成矿事件的产物,但这一事件也发生于120±10 Ma,从而证明乳山金矿与胶东其他地区金矿一样都是在中生代构造机制转折、岩石圈强烈减薄的构造背景下集中成矿的,这为进一步认识乳山金矿的成因机制和成矿动力学背景提供了新的证据。