2017年精河MS6.6地震前地磁异常特征分析

2017年8月9精河发生M_S6.6地震,距震中300km范围内的温泉台、克拉玛依台、乌鲁木齐台捕捉到此次地震前的地磁异常信息,本文对此进行了分析和总结,结论如下：①地磁谐波振幅比反应了观测点深部电阻率变化,2016年呼图壁M_S6.2、此次精河M_S6.6地震均发生在克拉玛依台地磁谐波振幅比异常下降之后的转折和恢复阶段;②震前83天、21天沿北天山断裂带分布的地磁台站逐日比和加卸载响应比均成组出现超限的高值,且异常高值的空间分布与震中位置有一定关联;③全国大陆地磁台站震前34天出现低点位移突变分界线,且异常集中于震中附近。     

2017年8月8日九寨沟MS7.0地震前成都台地磁谐波振幅比异常分析

2017年8月8日四川省九寨沟县发生M_S7.0地震,成都地震基准台距此次地震震中约255km,震前该台地磁谐波振幅比出现趋势性异常。对成都台GM4磁通门磁力仪秒数据进行谐波振幅比计算,结果显示,谐波振幅比在九寨沟M_S7.0地震前表现出下降—转折—恢复上升的异常变化形态,地震发生在异常恢复期,同时,异常表现出由长周期向短周期迁移、SN向与EW向变化不同步的特征,芦山M_S7.0地震前成都台地磁谐波振幅比亦呈现了相似的异常变化特征。     

2018年云南通海MS5.0和墨江MS5.9地震前地磁垂直强度极化异常时空特征研究

利用云南11个地磁台站的秒采样观测数据,计算和分析了地磁垂直强度极化值Y_zh在2019年8月13日、14日通海M_S5.0地震前及2019年9月8日墨江M_S5.9地震前的时空变化特征。研究表明,地磁台站Y_zh值的幅度在震前会出现同步增强现象。而与以往的极化震例研究相比,Y_zh值的高值异常在震前出现时间要更早些,可能会在震前2~5个月出现,距发震时间越近,产生的异常幅值可能越大,异常持续时间也越长。同时,研究还发现2次地震主要发生在异常空间等值线的高值区内,尤其在零值阈值线附近,这可能对今后发震地点的预测有一定的指示意义。对比异常产生时段内的D_st指数,认为该高值异常并非由空间电流体系所引起。     

2013年7月22日甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震地磁总场F空间相关异常分析

利用甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震震中距在1 000 km范围内的33个地磁台站地磁总场F₀₂点值,研究其空间相关系数在地震前后的变化。结果显示：（1）在本次地震前共有15个地磁台站存在空间相关低值异常,该异常平均持续22天;（2）异常幅度在一定程度上随着震中距的增大而减小;（3）在异常持续过程中,异常最低值时间基本统一;（4）异常起始时刻至发震时刻的平均时间间隔为54天,异常结束时刻至发震时刻的平均时间间隔为33天,该异常具有短期效应。并且,异常台站分布与该区域构造走向、余震震中和极震区展布有一定相似性,虽然存在地磁台站分布不均匀的客观事实,但该现象为研究地磁异常分布与构造之间的联系提供了素材。     

河北及周边地区岩石圈磁场变化及震前异常特征

利用2019年度大华北秋季复测156个测点的流动地磁矢量资料,获得河北及周边地区岩石圈磁场半年变化图,分析归纳河北及周边地区岩石圈磁场的总体变化特征,并研究测区内2019年12月3日河北怀安M_S3.4地震和2019年12月5日河北丰南M_S4.5地震前岩石圈磁场局部变化和异常特征。结果表明：丰南M_S4.5地震发生在H矢量的转向区,总强度F负异常的高值区,D要素负异常的高梯度带和Z值变化的高值区;怀安M_S3.4地震则发生在H矢量幅值弱化且转向区,D要素零值线附近的正值区和Z值变化的低值区。     

2013年岷县-漳县6.6级地震震前地磁异常分析

区域地磁在一定范围内,在排除空间环境、仪器本身故障等因素的前提下,各地磁台所观测到的地磁曲线是具一定相关性的,但强震孕震过程中会引起电导率等电磁性质发生改变,从而改变台站间地磁本应呈现出来的相关性,因此地磁异常可以为震前地震预报提供有用信息。以2013年7月22日岷县-漳县6.6级地震为研究对象,对其震前地磁前兆异常进行研究。分析表明：震前有明显的低点位移异常现象,且在此次异常后36天发生了6.6级地震;地磁Z值的每日一值空间相关分析也出现了明显异常,从空间上看,相关系数与地震震中有很好的对应关系,震中刚好处在相关系数最低的位置;且地磁台的密集程度对计算区域相关系数具有较大影响。     

2022年门源MS6.9和2016年门源MS6.4地震序列比较分析

2022年1月8日青海省海北州门源县发生M_S6.9地震,震中距离2016年1月21日门源M_S6.4地震震中约33km,两次门源地震均发生在冷龙岭断裂附近,但在震源机制、主发震断层破裂过程及地震序列余震活动等方面显著不同。针对两次门源地震序列的比较分析,对研究冷龙岭断裂及其附近区域强震序列和余震衰减特征等具有重要研究意义。通过对比分析2022年门源M_S6.9地震和2016年门源M_S6.4地震余震的时空演化特征,发现二者在震源过程和断层破裂尺度上存在明显差异,前者发震断层破裂充分,震后能量释放充分,余震丰富且震级偏高;而后者发震断层未破裂至地表,余震震级水平偏低。综合分析两次门源地震序列表现出来的差异性,认为其可能与地震发震断层的破裂过程密切相关,且同时受到区域构造环境的影响。     

青海、新疆和西藏地区地震活动平静特征参数Wq值强震预测模式及其应用

以青海、新疆、西藏地区为研究区域,系统研究总结了该区域2010—2020年5.0级以上地震前W_q值的时空演化特征,并以2020年新疆于田6.4级和西藏尼玛6.6级地震为实例进行阐述。得出以下三点认识:①地震一般发生在W_q值异常扩展时段或扩展—减小时段,6.0级以上W_q值异常的震例中,约81%发生于异常出现后的9个月内;②地震一般位于W_q值异常面积扩展区或扩展—减小恢复区附近,近70%的震例发生在W_q值异常区内;③建立了震级与W_q值异常区面积间的正相关统计模型,二者的相关系数(R)为0.85,为预测青海、新疆和西藏地区地震的强度提供了定量关系。青海、新疆和西藏地区W_q值方法对6.0～6.9级地震的预测效果(W_q值异常的地震报准率为61%)优于5.0～5.9级地震(W_q值异常的地震报准率为26%),为我国地球物理观测程度较低地区开展强震中短期(1年内)预测提供了参考依据。     

江苏盐城盐纺井地球化学异常信息提取及机理分析

依据江苏省盐城市纺织厂井Ca²⁺和Cl^-月均值浓度,利用从属函数和自适应阈值法对该井进行了地球化学异常信息提取与分析;结合波速比和地磁谐波振幅比数据,利用膨胀扩容模式开展了映震机理讨论。结果表明,2008～2016年Ca²⁺浓度出现6次从属函数异常和5次自适应阈值异常,Cl^-浓度出现4次从属函数异常和5次自适应阈值异常,较好地对应了台站200km范围内M_L≥4.0的地震。此外,根据波速比、地磁谐波振幅比和该井地下水地球化学成因等分析结果,判断Ca²⁺、Cl^-浓度在震前的快速上升与深部流体上涌有关。     

2022年四川泸定MS6.8地震前地震活动与地球物理观测异常回顾与讨论

2022年9月5日四川泸定M_S6.8地震发生在2022年度全国地震重点危险区内,且震前作了较好的短期预测。本文回顾了中期(年度)和短期阶段地震活动和地球物理观测异常。①2022年度危险区确定的核心依据有川滇藏交界4级地震空区、危险区附近M_L≥3.5地震空区、跨断层形变趋势异常和重力场异常等,其中,川滇藏交界4级地震空区被2022年1月2日云南宁蒗M_S5.5地震打破具有中短期预测意义。②短期阶段,川滇藏交界4级地震空区经历了“打破—增强—平静”的演化过程,与1973年四川炉霍M_S7.6地震前高度相似,这可能与其发震构造相同、震源机制解一致和深部孕震环境相似有关。此外,还存在川滇地区震群和多个余震区准同步活动、巴塘显著震群等异常。地球物理观测方面,在2022年6月1日芦山M_S6.1和6月10日马尔康M_S6.0地震后,四川前兆异常无明显减少,而在7—8月显著增多,这可以作为强震后短期仍有可能再次发生强震的判定依据。新增异常主要分布在以三岔口(鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带和龙门山断裂带交汇区,呈“Y”字形分布)为中心的300km范围内,这是震前短期地点预测的主要依据之一。③6.8级地震前形变中短期大幅度异常突出,且异常点均位于远场(距离6.8级地震震中130～300km范围内)。除礼州测距外,其余异常点均位于M_L3.5地震空区外围。形变异常出现的时间与M_L3.5地震空区打破后空区内部及边缘地震活动显著增强大体一致。④泸定6.8级地震发生在三岔口地区,该区及附近2015—2021年连续多年被确定为全国地震重点危险区,但均未发生预测地震,由此表明当前有效的强震年度(中期)时间预测依据少。     

Low CodaQcin the Epicentral Region of the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake ofMw7.7

On 26 January, 2001 (03:46:55,UT) a devastating intraplate earthquake of M_w 7.7 occurred in a region about 5 km NW of Bhachau, Gujarat (23.42°N, 70.23°E). The epicentral distribution of aftershocks defines a marked concentration along an E-W trending and southerly dipping (45°) zone covering an area of (60 × 40) km². The presence of high seismicity including two earthquakes of magnitudes exceeding 7.7 in the 200 years is presumed to have caused a higher level of shallow crustal heterogeneity in the Kutch area; a site lying in the seismic zone V (zone of the highest seismicity for potentially M8 earthquakes) on the seismic zoning map of India. Attenuation property of the medium around the epicentral area of the Bhuj earthquake covering a circular area of 61,500 km² with a radius of 140 km is studied by estimating the coda-Q_c from 200 local earthquakes of magnitudes varying from 3.0–4.6. The estimated Q₀ values at locations in the aftershock zone (high seismicity) are found to be low in comparison to areas at a distance from it. This can be attributed to the fact that seismic waves are highly scattered for paths through the seismically active and fractured zone but they are well behaved outside the aftershock zone. Distribution of Q₀ values suggests that the local variation in Q₀ values is probably controlled by local geology. The estimated Q₀ values at different stations suggest a low value of Q=(102 ± 0.80)^*f^{(0.98 ± 0.02)} indicating an attenuative crust beneath the entire region. The frequency-dependent relation indicates a relatively low Q_c at lower frequencies (1–3 Hz) that can be attributed to the loss of energy due to scattering attenuation associated with heterogeneities and/or intrinsic attenuation due to fluid movement in the fault zone and fluid-filled cracks. The large Q_c at higher frequencies may be related to the propagation of backscattered body waves through deeper parts of the lithosphere where less heterogeneity is expected. Based on the attenuation curve estimated for Q₀=102, the ground acceleration at 240 km distance is 13% of 1 g i.e., 0.13 g agreeing well with the ground acceleration recorded by an accelerograph at Ahmedabad (0.11 g). Hence, it is inferred that the Q₀ value obtained from this study seems to be apt for prediction of ground motion for the region.     

九寨沟MS 7.0地震前单台波速比变化特征

收集、整理四川省地震台网2013年5月至2017年9月产出的震相观测报告数据,采用单台多震和达法,重点分析2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S 7.0强震前龙门山断裂带中北段地区波速比变化特征。结果表明：龙门山断裂带中段西侧的茂县地震台,在发震前2年左右,波速比出现一次持续时间约一年半的下降异常;发震前半年左右,波速比出现明显回返特征,波速比回返至均值上下时即发生九寨沟M_S 7.0地震;震源区周边其他6个地震台波速比在发震前变化较平稳。茂县地震台波速比低值异常对判定九寨沟M_S 7.0强震前龙门山断裂带中北段可能存在孕震体具有重要参考价值。     

Vp and Vp/Vs structures in the crust and upper mantle of the Taiwan region, China

A tomographic study of the V _p and V _p/V _s structures in the crust and upper mantle beneath the Taiwan region of China is conducted by simultaneous inversion of P and S arrival times. Compared with the previous tomographic results, the spherical finite difference technique is suitable for the strong heterogeneous velocity structure, and may improve the accuracy in the travel time and three-dimensional ray tracing calculations. The V _p and V _p/V _s structures derived from joint inversion and the relocated earthquakes can provide better constraints for analyzing the lateral heterogeneity and deep tectonic characters in the crust and upper mantle. Our tomographic results reveal significant relations between the seismic wavespeed structure and the tectonic characters. In the shallow depth, sedimentary basins and orogen show distinct wavespeed anomalies, with low V _p, high V _p/V _s in basins and high V _p, low V _p/V _s in orogen. As the suture zone of Eurasian Plate and Philippine Sea Plate, Longitudinal Valley is characterized by a significant high V _p/V _s anomaly extending to the middle-lower crust and upper mantle, which reflects the impact of rock cracking, partial melting, and the presence of fluids. In the northeast Taiwan, the V _p, V _p/V _s anomalies and relocated earthquakes depict the subducting Philippine Sea Plate under the Eurasian Plate. The high V _p of oceanic plate and the low V _p, high V _p/V _s atop the subducted oceanic plate extend to 80 km depth. Along the east-west profiles, the thickness of crust reaches 60 km at the east of Central Range with eastward dipping trend, which reveals the eastward subduction of the thickened and deformed crust of the Eurasian continental plate. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-234-2), National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2007CB411701), National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2006AA09A101-0201) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40804016, 40704013)     

Crustal thickness and vP/vS ratio in Shanxi Graben,China

Shanxi Graben is in the middle part of the North China Craton, from south to north. With the teleseismic data recorded by Regional Seismograph Networks and the temporary ZBnet-W Seismic Array around east part of Shanxi Graben, we measured the crustal thickness and v_P/v_S ratio beneath each station using the H-κ stack of receiver functions. The observed crustal thickness shows obvious lateral variation, increasing gradually from east to west in the Shanxi Graben. Beneath the Shanxi Graben the crust is relatively thicker than both sides of the south and the north. In addition, the v_P/v_S ratio in the north of study zone is higher than that in the south. The highest v_P/v_S ratio exists in the crust of the Xinding basin and the Datong basin. Our study also suggests that high velocity ratio might result from the strong activities of the magmation and volcanism.     

Vp/Vs ratios in the Yellowstone National Park region, Wyoming

In this paper we study the variation of V_p/V_s and Poisson's ratio (δ) in the Yellowstone National Park region, using earthquakes which were well recorded by a local seismic network. We find that the average V_p/V_s value within the geothermally active Yellowstone caldera is about 7% lower than in the area outside the caldera. Within the caldera itself there may be a further 2–7% reduction of V_p/V_s in the hydrothermally active Norris Geyser Basin, the Upper and Lower Geyser Basins, and the Yellowstone Lake and Mud Volcano regions. After considering various possible causes for V_p/V_s changes, such as geologic and structural differences, thermal effects, partial melting, and hydrothermal activity, we conclude that the most plausible explanation for the observed V_p/V_s reduction is the presence of hot-water at temperatures and pore-pressures near the water steam transition in the caldera geothermal reservoirs.     

兴蒙造山带诺敏河火山群地壳厚度与波速比研究

利用布设于兴蒙造山带诺敏河火山群地区的宽频带流动地震台站资料,基于接收函数方法,获取了该地区的地壳厚度与波速比值.研究结果显示,该地区的地壳厚度介于32~38 km,莫霍面深度在空间上分布特征与五大连池为中心的火山带分布具有较好的一致性：沿着火山带延展方向地壳较薄.该地区的波速比介于1.74~1.84,波速比在空间上与地壳厚度变化具有一致性：高波速比主要集中于靠近五大连池火山带地区,向诺敏河火山和小古里河火山延展.研究认为：诺敏河火山与五大连池火山带可能具有相同的岩浆来源,可能与富钾岩石圈地幔拆沉作用造成的地幔热物质上涌有关.研究区地壳厚度与波速比呈现负相关关系,暗示该地区可能发生过岩浆底侵作用.     

Petrogenetic grid for ultrahigh-pressure metamorphism in the model system CaO-MgO-SiO2-CO2-H2O

Abstract Petrogenetic grids for ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphism were calculated at different X_co2 conditions in the model system CaO-MgO-SiO₂-CO₂-H₂O involving coesite (Co), diopside (Di), dolomite (Do), enstatite (En), forsterite (Fo), magnesite (Ms), quartz (Qz), talc (Tc), tremolite (Tr) using a published internally consistent thermodynamic data set. Two P-T grids at X_co2= 0.01 and 0.5 are described. In the calculated P-T grid at X_co2= 0.01, four out of 10 stable invariant points, Co-En-Ms-Tc, Co-Di-En-Tc-Tr, Co-Di-Ms-Tc-Tr and Di-En-Ms-Tc-Tr lie within the stability field of coesite. If the fluid phase has X_co2= 0.5, no invariant point is stable under UHP conditions. Some magnesite-bearing assemblages are stabilized by the following three reactions: Di + Ms = Do + Fo + CO₂, Ms + Tr = Do + Fo + CO₂+ H₂O and Ms + Tc = Fo+ CO₂+ H₂O at X_co2= 0.01 and by reaction Ms + Tc = Fo + CO₂+ H₂O together with these three at X_co2= 0.5. Ten possible UHP assemblages for mafic and ultramafic compositions at very low X_co2 conditions include the following: Co-Do-Ms, Co-Di-Ms, Co-Di-Tc, Di-Ms-Tc, Di-En-Tc-, Di-En-Ms, Co-Di-En, Di-En-Fo, Di-Fo-Ms, Di-Do-Fo. Among them, talc-bearing assemblages are restricted to X_co2 < 0.02 and their high-P limit is 31.7 kb (749°C) at X_co2= 0.01. Dolomite-magnesite-silica assemblages have large P-T stability fields even if X_co2 is as low as 0.1, and could occur in cold subduction zones with very low geothermal gradients. Reported UHP coesite-dolomite assemblage is restricted only to a calc-silicate rock interlayered with marble where X_co2 is relatively higher; no such assemblage appears for mafic and ultramafic rocks with low X_co2 evidenced by the occurrence of diopside (or omphacite) at the expense of dolomite + coesite. The effect of X_co2 on the stability of coesite-dolomite-magnesite, diopside-enstatite-magnesite, diopside-talc assemblages is examined and the occurrence of coesite-dolomite, magnesite-bearing and talc-bearing assemblages in the Dabie UHP rocks are interpreted by employing the calculated P-T grids.     

The empirical relationships between M s, m b and M L for China and vicinity

Data from 753 earthquakes are used to determine a relationship between surface-wave magnitude (M _s) and bodywave magnitude (m _b), and from 541 earthquakes to determine a relationship between surface-wave magnitude (M _s) and local magnitude (M _L) for China and vicinity: M _s=0.9883 m _b-0.0420, M _s=0.9919 M _L-0.1773. The relationship of M _s versus m _b is obtained for 292 events occurred in the Chinese mainland in the time period from 1964 to 1996, 291 events occurred in Taiwan in the time period from 1964 to 1995 and 170 events occurred in the surrounding area. Standard deviation of the fitting is 0.445. Relationship of M _s versus M _L is obtained for 36 events occurred in the Chinese mainland, 293 events occurred in Taiwan, China and 212 events occurred in the surrounding area. The total amount is 541 events. Standard deviation of the fitting is 0.4673. The uncertainties of the converted M _s in different magnitude intervals can be estimated using complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). In the relationship of M _s versus m _b, taking ±0.25 as a range of uncertainties, in magnitude interval m _b 4.0–4.9, the probabilities for the converted M _s taken value less than (M _s-0.25) and more than (M _s+0.25) are 17% and 27% respectively. Similarly, we have probabilities for m _b 5.0–5.9 are 34% and 20% and that for m _b 6.0–6.9 are 11% and 47%. In the relationship of M _s versus M _L, if the range of uncertainties is still taken as ±0.25, the corresponding probabilities for magnitude interval M _L 4.0–4.9 are 22% and 38%, for M _L 5.0–5.9 are 20% and 15% and for magnitude interval M _L 6.0–6.9, are 15% and 29%, respectively. The relationships developed in this paper can be used for the conversion of one magnitude scale into another magnitude scales conveniently. The estimation of uncertainties described in this paper is more accurate and more objective than the usual estimation expressed by deviation. The estimations described in this paper indicate various dispersions in different magnitude intervals of original data. The estimations of uncertainties described by probabilities can be well connected with the total estimations of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment.     

Ultrasonic measurements of Vp and Qp: relaxation spectrum of complex modulus on basalt melts

Ultrasonic compressional wave velocity V_p and quality factor Q_p have been measured in alkali basalt, olivine basalt and basic andesite melts in the frequency range of 3.4–22 MHz and in the temperature range of 1100–1400°C. Velocity and attenuation of the melts depend on frequency and temperature, showing that there are relaxation mechanisms in the melts. Complex moduli are calculated from the ultrasonic data. The results fit well a complex modulus of Arrhenius temperature dependence with log-normal Gaussian distribution in relaxation times of attenuation. The analysis yields average relaxation time, its activation energy, relaxed modulus, unrelaxed modulus and width of Gaussian distribution in relaxation times. Relaxed modulus is smaller (17.5 GPa) for basic andesite melt of high silica and high alumina contents than for the other two basalt melts (18.1–18.4 GPa). The most probable relaxation times decrease from ～ 3 × 10^?10 s for basic andesite to ～ 10^?11 s for alkali basalt at 1400°C. Activation energies of attenuation, ranging from 270 to 340 kJ mol^?1 in the three melts, are highest in basic andesite. Longitudinal viscosity values and their temperature dependences are also calculated from V_p and Q_p data. The volume viscosity values are estimated from the data using the shear viscosity values. Longitudinal, volume and shear viscosities and their activation energies are highest in the basic andesite melt of the most polymerized structure.