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1.
Time series of daily averaged rainfall of about 40 rain gauge stations of south Kerala, situated at the southern-most part of peninsular India between latitudes about 8‡N and 10‡N were subjected to Wavelet Analysis to study the Intra Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) in the rainfall and its inter-annual variability. Of the 128 days, 29th May to 3rd October of each of the 95 years 1901-1995 were analysed. We find that the period of ISO does not vary during a monsoon season in most of the years, but it has large inter-annual variability in the range 23 to 64 days. Period-wise, the years cluster into two groups of ISO, the SHORT consisting of periods 23, 27 and 32 days and the LONG with a single period of 64 days, both the sets at a significance level of 99%. During the 95 years at this level of significance there are 44 years with SHORT and 20 years with LONG periods. 11 years have no ISO even at the 90% level of significance. We composited NCEP SST anomalies of the summer monsoon season June to September for two groups of years during the period 1965–1993. The first group is of 5 years with a LONG ISO period of 64 days for south Kerala rainfall at significance level of 99% and the second group is of 12 years with SHORT ISO periods of 23, 27 and 32 days at the same level of significance. The SST anomaly for the LONG (SHORT) ISO resembles that for an El Nino (La Nina).  相似文献   

2.
In this study, the possible linkage between summer monsoon rainfall over India and surface meteorological fields (basic fields and heat budget components) over monsoon region (30‡E-120‡E, 30‡S30‡N) during the pre-monsoon month of May and summer monsoon season (June to September) are examined. For this purpose, monthly surface meteorological fields anomaly are analyzed for 42 years (1958-1999) using reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research). The statistical significance of the anomaly (difference) between the surplus and deficient monsoon years in the surface meteorological fields are also examined by Student’s t-test at 95% confidence level. Significant negative anomalies of mean sea level pressure are observed over India, Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsular in the pre-monsoon month of May and monsoon season. Significant positive anomalies in the zonal and meridional wind (at 2 m) in the month of May are observed in the west Arabian Sea off Somali coast and for monsoon season it is in the central Arabian Sea that extends up to Somalia. Significant positive anomalies of the surface temperature and air temperature (at 2 m) in the month of May are observed over north India and adjoining Pakistan and Afghanistan region. During monsoon season this region is replaced by significant negative anomalies. In the month of May, significant positive anomalies of cloud amount are observed over Somali coast, north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh. During monsoon season, cloud amount shows positive anomalies over NW India and north Arabian Sea. There is overall reduction in the incoming shortwave radiation flux during surplus monsoon years. A higher magnitude of latent heat flux is also found in surplus monsoon years for the month of May as well as the monsoon season. The significant positive anomaly of latent heat flux in May, observed over southwest Arabian Sea, may be considered as an advance indicator of the possible behavior of the subsequent monsoon season. The distribution of net heat flux is predominantly negative over eastern Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean. Anomaly between the two extreme monsoon years in post 1980 (i.e., 1988 and 1987) shows that shortwave flux, latent heat flux and net heat flux indicate reversal in sign, particularly in south Indian Ocean. Variations of the heat budget components over four smaller sectors of Indian seas, namely Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and west Indian Ocean and east Indian Ocean show that a small sector of Arabian Sea is most dominant during May and other sectors showing reversal in sign of latent heat flux during monsoon season.  相似文献   

3.
Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.  相似文献   

4.
The second campaign of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX-II) was conducted in two phases viz., March–April and May–June 2003. In the present work, the buoy and ocean research vessel data collected during the second phase of ARMEX-II have been analysed to bring out the characteristic features of monsoon onset. The results have shown that the thermodynamical features such as build up of lower tropospheric instability and increased height of zero degree isotherm occurred about a week before the monsoon onset over Kerala and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. There was a sharp fall in the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa, and the height of zero degree isotherm about 2–3 days before the monsoon onset. The flux of sensible heat was positive (sea to air) over south Arabian Sea during the onset phase. Over the Bay of Bengal higher negative (air to sea) values of sensible flux prevailed before the monsoon onset which became less negative with the advance of monsoon over that region. The pre-onset period was characterized by large sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Arabian Sea with rapid decrease towards north of the warm pool region. The buoy observations have shown that SST remained close to 30.5°C in the warm pool region during the pre-onset period in 2003 but only 2–3 degrees away (north of this region) SSTs were as low as 28.5–29°C. An interesting aspect of sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the Indian seas during the onset phase of summer monsoon 2003 was undoubtedly, the highest SLP in the warm pool region inspite of very high SSTs.  相似文献   

5.
Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing 20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the monsoon months and the season as a whole.  相似文献   

6.
The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS) developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough. A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rain-fall over Orissa during the summer monsoon season (June-September). For this purpose, rainfall and rainy days over 31 selected stations in Orissa and LPS days over Orissa and adjoining land and sea regions during different monsoon months and the season as a whole over a period of 20 years (1980-1999) are analysed. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of LPS on spatial and temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The rainfall has been significantly less than normal over most parts of Orissa except the eastern side of Eastern Ghats during July and hence during the season as a whole due to a significantly less number of LPS days over northwest Bay in July over the period of 1980-1999. The seasonal rainfall shows higher interannual variation (increase in coefficient of variation by about 5%) during 1980-1999 than that during 1901-1990 over most parts of Orissa except northeast Orissa. Most parts of Orissa, especially the region extending from central part of coastal Orissa to western Orissa (central zone) and western side of the Eastern Ghats get more seasonal monsoon rainfall with the development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay and their subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa. The north Orissa adjoining central zone also gets more seasonal rainfall with development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay. While the seasonal rainfall over the western side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over west central Bay, Jharkhand and Bangladesh, that over the eastern side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over all the regions to the north of Orissa. There are significant decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during June and decreasing trends in rainy days over some parts of north interior Orissa and central part of coastal Orissa during July over the period of 1980-1999  相似文献   

7.
Hydrographic data collected on board ORV Sagar Kanya in the southern Bay of Bengal during the BOBMEX-Pilot programme (October–November 1998) have been used to describe the thermohaline structure and circulation in the upper 200 m water column of the study region. The presence of seasonal Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the study area, typically characterized with enhanced cloudiness and flanked by the respective east/northeast winds on its northern part and west/southwest winds on its southern part, has led to net surface heat loss of about 55 W/m2. The sea surface dynamic topography relative to 500 db shows that the upper layer circulation is characterised by a cyclonic gyre encompassing the study area. The eastward flowing Indian Monsoon Current (IMC) between 5‡N and 7‡N in the south and its northward branching along 87‡E up to 13‡N appear to feed the cyclonic gyre. The Vessel-Mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (VM-ADCP) measured currents confirm the presence of the cyclonic gyre in the southern Bay of Bengal during the withdrawing phase of the southwest monsoon from the northern/central parts of the Bay of Bengal.  相似文献   

8.
Temporal distribution of southwest monsoon (June –September) rainfall is very useful for the country’s agriculture and food grain production. It contributes more than 75% of India’s annual rainfall. In view of this, an attempt has been made here to understand the performance of the monthly rainfall for June, July, August and September when the seasonal rainfall is reported as excess, deficient or normal. To know the dependence of seasonal rainfall on monthly rainfall, the probabilities of occurrence of excess, deficient and normal monsoon when June, July, August and also June + July and August + September rainfall is reported to be excess or deficient, are worked out using the long homogenous series of 124 years (1871-–1994) data of monthly and seasonal rainfall of 29 meteorological sub-divisions of the plain regions of India. In excess monsoon years, the average percentage contribution of each monsoon month to the long term mean (1871–1994) seasonal rainfall (June –September) is more than that of the normal while in the deficient years it is less than normal. This is noticed in all 29 meteorological sub-divisions. From the probability analysis, it is seen that there is a rare possibility of occurrence of seasonal rainfall to be excess/deficient when the monthly rainfall of any month is deficient/excess.  相似文献   

9.

Kerala, a southern state of India, experienced a severe flooding due to multi-day extreme rain events during July and August months of 2018. This disaster was one of the worst floods to hit the state and resulted in heavy losses of lives and property. Natural Disaster Management Authority of India reported that 483 people lost their lives and more than 50 lakhs population were affected severely. This short communication focuses on examining this flood event using satellite remote sensing. It is reported that Kerala received an excess of about 56% rainfall during July and August from multi-day extreme rainfall episodes. Few regions of Kerala received the rainfall in the range of 270–300 mm on August 14 and 15. Hourly rainfall events in the excess of 25 mm have also been reported during heavy rainy days. The present study reports that multi-day heavy rainy events during July and August brought an accumulated rainfall of about 1600 mm, which resulted in extreme flooding over Kerala.

  相似文献   

10.
应用旋转主成分分析和复变量莫莱特小波变换分析了1982~1995年中国境内实测周降雨量和1982~1994年美国环境预报中心周平均海面水温资料,研究其时空变化特征及其相互关系。结果表明:海面水温乃至降雨量的周年变化,主要源于太阳直射点在南北回归线之间的往复运动和海面云雾覆盖量及其相关联的季风周年变化;依降雨量的周年变化可将中国自然地分为12个降水区,从海气相互作用的角度来看其年际变化主要取决于太阳辐射强度、有效日照率和亚洲夏季风的年际变化;厄尔尼诺只对黄河河套北部和两广降水区年降雨量有较大影响;西太平洋暖池以东海面水温的年际变化仅对黄河河套北部年降雨量有一定影响。  相似文献   

11.
The Palghat Cauvery Shear Zone (CSZ) is a major shear zone that possibly extends into different fragments of Gondwanaland. In the present study mafic granulites occurring on either side of the CSZ in Namakkal area, southern India are examined. Textural features recorded in the mafic granulites are crucial in elucidating the metamorphic history of the southern granulite terrane (SGT). In the mafic granulites occurring to the south of CSZ, evidence of garnet breaking down during near isothermal decompression (ITD) is indicated by the development of orthopyroxene + plagioclase moats in between quartz and garnet. The presence of comparatively small elongated second generation garnet embedded in pyroxenes from the mafic granulites occurring to the north of CSZ is indicative of the garnet formation via reaction between pyroxenes and plagioclase, which occurred during isobaric cooling (IBC). Rocks occurring to the south of CSZ have recorded comparatively higher temperature and pressure (849‡C and 9.6kbar) than those occurring to the north of the CSZ (731‡C and 8.6kbar) using conventional geothermobarometry. The rocks occurring to the north of CSZ have suffered more complex metamorphic histories in comparison to the southern part. Integrating the results of the present field and metamorphic studies with the earlier investigations and available geochronological data we suggest that the CSZ could represent a suture zone between two different continental blocks that underwent distinct metamorphic evolution.  相似文献   

12.
The rain-day series in Nigeria have been examined for periodicities, fluctuations and trends for four regions arranged from south to north (the Coastal, Guinea-Savanna, Midland and Sahelian zones) based on data collected for the period 1919–1985. A significant decline was found in annual rain-days for each zone of the country from 1939–1985 and also during the recent period, 1968–85. This decline was found to begin in July in the Sahel thereafter extending to the Midland in August and still further southwards to embrace the Guinea-Savanna zone by September and October. Evidence was found of a synchronization of fluctuations in annual rain-days in the south-north direction for the country. Only the quasi-biennial oscillation of 2.4–2.8 years was found to be common to the 4 regional annual rain-days series. Finally, the implications of the results for the causative mechanisms of rainfall variability in the country are discussed.  相似文献   

13.
The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, a state on the eastern coast of India, is more significantly related than Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) to the cyclonic disturbances developing over the Bay of Bengal. Orissa experiences floods and droughts very often due to variation in the characteristics of these disturbances. Hence, an attempt was made to find out the inter-annual variability in the rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa during monsoon season (June–September). For this purpose, different statistical characteristics, such as mean, coefficient of variation, trends and periodicities in the rainfall and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa, were analysed from 100 years (1901–2000) of data. The basic objective of the study was to find out the contribution of inter-annual variability in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances to the inter-annual variability of monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa shows temporal variation. The correlation between them has significantly decreased since the 1950s. The variation in their relationship is mainly due to the variation in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa. The variability of both rainfall and total cyclonic disturbances has been above normal since the 1960s, leading to more floods and droughts over Orissa during recent years. The inter-annual variability of seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa during monsoon season show a quasi-biennial oscillation period of 2–2.8 years. There is least impact of El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual variability of both the seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of monsoon depressions/total cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa.  相似文献   

14.
Large-scale interannual variability of the northern summer southwest monsoon over India is studied by examining its variation in the dry area during the period 1871–1984. On the mean summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) chart the 800 mm isohyet divides the country into two nearly equal halves, named as dry area (monsoon rainfall less than 800 mm) and wet area (monsoon rainfall greater than 800 mm). The dry area/wet area shows large variations from one year to another, and is considered as an index for assessing the large-scale performance of the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical and fluctuation characteristics of the summer monsoon dry area (SMDA) are reported. To identify possible causes of variation in the Indian summer monsoon, the correlation between the summer monsoon dry area and eleven regional/global circulation parameters is examined. The northern hemisphere surface air temperature, zonal/hemispheric/global surface air and upper air temperatures, Southern Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial lower stratosphere, April 500-mb ridge along 75°E over India, the Indian surface air temperature and the Bombay sea level pressure showed significant correlation. A new predictor parameter that is preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of a few selected stations over India has been suggested in the present study. The stations have been selected by applying the objective technique ‘selecting a subset of few gauges whose mean monsoon rainfall of the preceding year has shown the highest correlation coefficient (CC) with the SMDA’. Bankura (Gangetic West Bengal), Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) and Anupgarh (West Rajasthan) entered the selection showing a CC of 0.724. Using a dependent sample of 1951–1980 a predictive model (multiple CC = 0.745) has also been developed for the SMDA with preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of the three selected stations and the sea level pressure tendency at Darwin from Jan–Feb to Mar–May as independent parameters.  相似文献   

15.
The depth profiles of electrical conductance, δ18O,210Pb and cosmogenic radio isotopes10Be and36Cl have been measured in a 30 m ice core from east Antarctica near the Indian station, Dakshin Gangotri. Using210Pb and δ18O, the mean annual accumulation rates have been calculated to be 20 and 21 cm of ice equivalent per year during the past ∼ 150 years. Using these acumulation rates, the volcanic event that occurred in 1815 AD, has been identified based on electrical conductance measurements. Based on δ18O measurements, the mean annual surface air temperatures (MASAT) data observed during the last 150 years indicates that the beginning of the 19th century was cooler by about 2‡ C than the recent past and the middle of 18th century. The fallout of cosmogenic radio isotope10Be compares reasonably well with those obtained on other stations (73‡ S to 90‡ S) from Antarctica and higher latitudes beyond 77‡N. The fallout of36Cl calculated based on the present work agrees well with the mean global production rate estimated earlier by Lal and Peters (1967). The bomb pulse of36Cl observed in Greenland is not observed in the present studies – a result which is puzzling and needs to be studied on neighbouring ice cores from the same region.  相似文献   

16.
Indian monsoon variability in relation to Regional Pressure Index   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In this paper Regional Pressure Index (RPI) over the Indian region (20‡N—40‡N and 70‡0E—85‡E) has been constructed for 101 years (1899-1999) on a monthly scale. The relationship of these indices was carried out with the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (June–September) (ISMR) over the various homogeneous regions, for all the time scales. From the analysis it has been seen that RPI in the month of May is significantly associated with ISMR over various regions on all the scales. The relationship is statistically significant at 1% level. The study reveals that RPI in the month of May and January will be a new precursor for the long range forecasting of ISMR on the smaller spatial scale. On the decadal and climatological scale, winter and spring time RPI show a significant inverse relationship with the rainfall over the regions Peninsular India (PI) and North West India (NWI), while the association is direct with Central North East India (CNEI) and North East India (NEI). The relationship is significant at 0.1 and 1% level respectively.  相似文献   

17.
Time series measurements of radiative fluxes were made onboard INS Sagardhwani (SD) in the south Bay of Bengal near DS3 (13‡N and 87‡E) during the BOBMEX field experiment. An inter-comparison experiment conducted at DS3 showed that the radiative fluxes measured by Kipp and Zonen, Albedo meter and net Pyrgeometer onboard SD and by Eppley radiometers onboard ORV Sagar Kanya (SK) are well matched. It may be mentioned that the measurements showed consistency and good agreement between SD and SK ships, even though no Gimbal mounting was used for radiation instruments onboard SD. The main aim of the experiment was collection of high quality radiation data during the monsoon period, which can give an insight into the nature of the ocean-atmosphere coupling. The data on the four radiative fluxes collected on SD are averaged at 5 minute intervals and then hourly and daily averages have been computed. The hourly shortwave albedo and the atmospheric transmission factor are also computed and the variation of albedo in relation to the solar altitude and the transmissivity factor (TF) are studied. The mean albedo over the south Bay of Bengal under clear, partly cloudy and overcast skies are found to be 0.05, 0.07 and 0.2 respectively.  相似文献   

18.
A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.  相似文献   

19.
1971-2015年青藏高原东北边坡降水特征及主要影响因子分析   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
利用1971-2015年青藏高原东北边坡20个站的降水观测资料和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料,分析了青藏高原东北边坡年、季降水量空间分布和变化趋势,并采用相关系数法分析和讨论其所受的影响因素。结果表明:青藏高原东北边坡地区的年、季平均降水量空间分布极为不均,总体上是从南向北递减,东北部最少;青藏高原东北边坡年、夏、秋季平均降水量北部呈上升趋势,南部呈下降趋势;青藏高原东北边坡地区年平均降水量呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-3.1 mm·(10a)-1,其中春、秋、冬季平均降水量呈上升趋势,夏季平均降水量呈明显下降趋势;青藏高原东北边坡地区年、季降水量的显著周期为2~3 a、4~5 a及10~15 a;南亚季风对青藏高原东北边坡地区降水量影响显著,为明显的正相关,西风指数对高原东北边坡地区降水量有一定影响,相关不是很明显,与其北部降水量呈正相关,南部降水量呈负相关。  相似文献   

20.
In the present study, trends of rainfall of the Central India were evaluated in monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales using the Revised Mann-Kendall (RMK) test, Sen’s slope estimator, and innovative trend method (ITM). For this purpose, the monthly rainfall data for 20 stations in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh (CG) states in Central India during 1901–2010 was used. The Sen’s slope estimator was utilized for calculating the slope of rainfall trend line. Based on the obtained results of RMK test, there is no significant trend in the stations for the January and October months. The results also showed that for MP, two out of 15 considered stations indicate significant annual trend, while the CG has four out of five stations with significant trend. The results of applying ITM test indicated that most of the stations have decreasing trends in annual (16 stations), summer (16 stations), and monsoon (11 stations) seasons, while the winter (12 stations) and post monsoon (11 stations) seasons generally show increasing trend. Unlike the RMK, the ITM shows significant increasing trend in rainfall of November and December months. The finding of current study can be used for irrigation and water resource management purpose over the Central India.  相似文献   

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