Ocean change around Greenland under a warming climate

Climate Dynamics - The impact of climate warming on the ocean near Greenland is investigated with a high resolution coupled global climate model. The ocean around Greenland exhibits a strong...     

Patterns of decadal-scale Arctic warming events in simulated climate

Pronounced positive decadal-scale temperature anomalies occurred in the Arctic region in the first half of the twentieth century, an episode known as the early twentieth century warming (ETCW). Analyzing a 3,000-year unperturbed climate simulation performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, we demonstrate that internal variability of the Northern Hemisphere climate system is sufficient to reproduce warm events matching the observed ETCW. We perform a superposed epoch analysis on simulated data and identify 26 Arctic warming episodes compatible with the ETCW. The simulated events reproduce, in their ensemble average, magnitude as well as spatial and temporal extent of the observed ETCW. In individual realizations, the ETCW-like events indicate that different patterns of internally generated decadal Arctic warming are possible, including pan-Arctic warming events. We investigate the dynamics that typically lead to the simulated warming events: positive oceanic heat transport anomalies that form in the North Atlantic initialize the warming events and trigger an ocean-ice-albedo feedback in the Barents Sea region. The consequent reduction in sea-ice extent leads to enhanced multi-year surface warming through strengthened ocean heat release to the atmosphere. The oceanic heat transport anomalies reduce to pre-event levels around the year of the maximum warming. However, the warming events typically lasts for another 5–7 years until the sea-ice extent recovers to pre-event conditions.     

Arctic aerosol and Arctic climate: Results from an energy budget model

An energy budget model is used to study the effect on Arctic climate of optically active aerosol in the Arctic atmosphere. The dependence of the change in surface temperature on the vertical distribution of the aerosol and on the radiative properties of the aerosol-free atmosphere, the Arctic surface, and the aerosol, itself, are calculated. An extensive sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the degree to which the results of the model are dependent upon the assumptions underlying it.List of Symbols Used I ₀ Solar flux at the top of the Arctic Atmosphere (Arctic here means 70° N latitude to the pole) - a _S Surface albedo of the Arctic (a _S ^c is the value of surface albedo at which the sign of the surface temperature perturbation changes) - Reflection coefficient of the aerosol-free Arctic atmosphere - Absorption coefficient of the aerosol-free Arctic atmosphere - Transmission coefficient of the aerosol-free Arctic atmosphere - RI ₀ Total flux of sunlight reflected from the Arctic - A _A I ₀ Total flux of sunlight absorbed in the Arctic atmosphere - A _S I ₀ Total flux of sunlight absorbed at the Arctic surface - A _aer I ₀ Total flux of sunlight absorbed in the Arctic aerosol - Q _A Net atmospheric flow of energy, per unit of Arctic surface area, north across 70° N latitude - Q _S Net oceanic flow of energy, per unit of Arctic surface area, north across 70° N latitude - E Convective plus latent heat fluxes from surface to atmosphere - F _A Net flow of energy to the Arctic atmosphere - F _S Net flow of energy to the Arctic surface - T _A An effective temperature of the Arctic atmosphere - T _S Surface temperature of the Arctic - w Single-scattering albedo of the aerosol - t Optical depth of the aerosol - g Fraction of incident radiation scattered forward by the aerosol - Reflection coefficient of the aerosol - Absorption coefficient of the aerosol - Transmission coefficient of the aerosol - p,q Number of atmospheric layers and the inverse of the fraction of incident IR absorbed in each layer in the energy budget model - F,G,H Measures of the amount of IR-active atmosphere above the surface, the aerosol, and the clouds     

Projected changes in Eurasian and Arctic summer cyclones under global warming in the Bergen climate model

Using the coupled ocean-atmosphere Bergen Climate Model,and a Lagrangian vorticity-based cyclone tracking method,the authors investigate current climate summer cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and their change by the end of the 21st century,with a focus on Northern Eurasia and the Arctic.The two scenarios A1B and A2 for increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are considered.In the model projections,the total number of cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere is reduced by about 3% 4%,but the Arctic Ocean and adjacent coastal re-gions harbour slightly more and slightly stronger summer storms,compared to the model current climate.This in-crease occurs in conjunction with an increase in the high-latitude zonal winds and in the meridional tempera-ture gradient between the warming land and the ocean across Northern Eurasia.Deficiencies in climate model representations of the summer storm tracks at high lati-tudes are also outlined,and the need for further model inter-comparison studies is emphasized.     

Heat exchange between water and ice in the Arctic Ocean

Summary The heat balance equation for the bottom surface of floating sea ice is evaluated on the basis of observations of ice temperature, water temperature, current velocity, and ablation or accretion of ice. Assuming equality of the eddy diffusivities for momentum, heat, and salt (average 24 cm² sec^–1) it is shown that the temperature gradient in the oceanic boundary layer is extremely small (averages between 2.10^–5 and 4.10^–4°C/meter) and difficult to measure directly. It is suggested that a large part of the heat transfer from the relatively warm Atlantic water to the arctic atmosphere may occur through open leads in the ice cover.

---

Zusammenfassung Die Wärmebilanzgleichung für die Unterseite von schwimmendem Meereis wird an Hand von Beobachtungen der Eistemperatur, der Wassertemperatur, der Strömungsgeschwindigkeit und der Eisdickenänderung ausgewertet. Unter der Annahme gleicher Austauschkoeffizienten für Bewegungsgröße, Wärme und Salzgehalt (im Mittel 24 cm² sec^–1) ergibt sich für die ozeanische Grenzschicht ein außerordentlich kleiner Gradient der Wassertemperatur (durchschnittlich zwischen 2.10^–5 und 4.10^–4°C/Meter), der durch direkte Beobachtungen schwer nachzuweisen ist. Es ist zu vermuten, daß ein beträchtlicher Teil der Wärmeabgabe von der relativ warmen atlantischen Wassermasse an die arktische Atmosphäre durch Öffnungen in der Meereisdecke erfolgt.

---

Résumé On établit l'équation du bilan thermique valable pour la surface inférieure de la glace marine dérivante. Pour ce faire, on se sert d'observations de la température de la glace, de celle de l'eau, de la vitesse du courant et des variations de l'épaisseur de la glace. En admettant que les coefficients d'échange sont les mêmes pour la quantité de mouvement, la chaleur et le taux de salinité (en moyenne 24 cm² sec^–1), il résulte pour la couche limite un gradient extrêmement faible de la température de l'eau (situé en moyenne entre 2·10^–5 et 4·10^–4°C/m); un tel gradient est difficile à prouver au moyen d'observations directes. On peut supposer qu'une partie importante de la chaleur transmise par l'eau relativement chaude de l'Atlantique à l'atmosphère arctique passe au travers des lacunes de la couche de glace recouvrant l'océan.

---

---

With 4 Figures

---

Contribution 141, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle. This is a thesis submitted by the author in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science.     

Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of 1% per year until CO₂ reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO₂ doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.     

The impact of Arctic sea ice on the Arctic energy budget and on the climate of the Northern mid-latitudes

The atmospheric general circulation model EC-EARTH-IFS has been applied to investigate the influence of both a reduced and a removed Arctic sea ice cover on the Arctic energy budget and on the climate of the Northern mid-latitudes. Three 40-year simulations driven by original and modified ERA-40 sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations have been performed at T255L62 resolution, corresponding to 79?km horizontal resolution. Simulated changes between sensitivity and reference experiments are most pronounced over the Arctic itself where the reduced or removed sea ice leads to strongly increased upward heat and longwave radiation fluxes and precipitation in winter. In summer, the most pronounced change is the stronger absorption of shortwave radiation which is enhanced by optically thinner clouds. Averaged over the year and over the area north of 70° N, the negative energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere decreases by about 10?W/m² in both sensitivity experiments. The energy transport across 70° N is reduced. Changes are not restricted to the Arctic. Less extreme cold events and less precipitation are simulated in sub-Arctic and Northern mid-latitude regions in winter.     

Arctic climate change with a 2 ∘C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change

The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2 ^°C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2 ^°C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2 ^°C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2 ^°C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2 ^°C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2 ^°C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60–90^°N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6 ^°C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 × 10⁶ km² or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, where nearly 60% of habitat is lost. Modeled shifts in the potential northern limit of trees reach up to 400 km from the present tree line, which may be limited by dispersion rates. Simulated physiological effects of the CO₂ increase (to ca. 475 ppm) at high latitudes were small compared with the effects of the change in climate. The increase in forest area of the Arctic could sequester 600 Pg of additional carbon, though this effect is unlikely to be realized over next century.     

Critical influence of the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming on remote climate trends

Evidence is presented that the recent trend patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over the land masses surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean (North America, Greenland, Europe, and North Africa) have been strongly influenced by the warming pattern of the tropical oceans. The current generation of atmosphere–ocean coupled climate models with prescribed radiative forcing changes generally do not capture these regional trend patterns. On the other hand, even uncoupled atmospheric models without the prescribed radiative forcing changes, but with the observed oceanic warming specified only in the tropics, are more successful in this regard. The tropical oceanic warming pattern is poorly represented in the coupled simulations. Our analysis points to model error rather than unpredictable climate noise as a major cause of this discrepancy with respect to the observed trends. This tropical error needs to be reduced to increase confidence in regional climate change projections around the globe, and to formulate better societal responses to projected changes in high-impact phenomena such as droughts and wet spells.     

Modelling of Ocean Shallow Convection under Fast Ice in the Arctic

Ocean convection in the Antarctic has been studied many times and has been revealed to be responsible for ice-cover reduction. In the Arctic, proof of that phenomenon has not been documented. It is believed that this phenomenon happens on a smaller scale in the Arctic when local circulation of deep warmer water melts and slows ice production. An example of this is the North Water (NOW) polynya in northern Baffin Bay. A polynya is an area of open water in an otherwise ice-covered area. As ice forms under the fast ice near the boundary of the polynya, ocean salts (brine) are ejected from the newly formed ice. This water, which has an increased concentration of salt, sinks and is replaced by warmer water from below, and this slows ice formation. In our study a coupled one-dimensional thermodynamic snow–fast ice model incorporating ocean heat flux input via a shallow convection model was used. Ice thickness was calculated using a thermodynamic model that included a current-induced entrainment model and a convection model to account for brine rejection during ice growth. Atmospheric observations from Grise Fiord and Thule and ocean profiles around the NOW polynya near these sites were used as input to the model. This purely thermodynamic study enables us to obtain ice thickness values that can be compared with qualitative observations. This modelling study compares two sites related to the NOW polynya. The results indicate that the shallow convection model simulates the reduction of fast ice near Thule but not near Grise Fiord.     

气候变暖下干旱对森林生态系统的影响

人类活动显著影响着全球大气循环格局,全球平均温度升高导致干旱事件发生幅度、频度和持续时间增加,这对森林生态系统带来更多的是负面影响.本文基于已有研究,系统总结了干旱事件对森林生态系统地理分布格局、群落结构重建、植物生长和生理特性、死亡和灭绝、植物生产力以及碳循环功能的影响及其机理,并对未来干旱事件对森林生态系统长期效应以及在不同时间尺度上作用机理的研究提出建议.本研究对开展全球变化背景下森林生态系统对干旱事件响应机制的研究具有重要指导意义.     

Interpretation of the positive low-cloud feedback predicted by a climate model under global warming

The response of low-level clouds to climate change has been identified as a major contributor to the uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates among climate models. By analyzing the behaviour of low-level clouds in a hierarchy of models (coupled ocean-atmosphere model, atmospheric general circulation model, aqua-planet model, single-column model) using the same physical parameterizations, this study proposes an interpretation of the strong positive low-cloud feedback predicted by the IPSL-CM5A climate model under climate change. In a warmer climate, the model predicts an enhanced clear-sky radiative cooling, stronger surface turbulent fluxes, a deepening and a drying of the planetary boundary layer, and a decrease of tropical low-clouds in regimes of weak subsidence. We show that the decrease of low-level clouds critically depends on the change in the vertical advection of moist static energy from the free troposphere to the boundary-layer. This change is dominated by variations in the vertical gradient of moist static energy between the surface and the free troposphere just above the boundary-layer. In a warmer climate, the thermodynamical relationship of Clausius-Clapeyron increases this vertical gradient, and then the import by large-scale subsidence of low moist static energy and dry air into the boundary layer. This results in a decrease of the low-level cloudiness and in a weakening of the radiative cooling of the boundary layer by low-level clouds. The energetic framework proposed in this study might help to interpret inter-model differences in low-cloud feedbacks under climate change.     

气候变暖背景下修水县春茶气候品质等级变化趋势分析

基于1961—2019年修水县气象观测资料,运用气候倾向率方法分析了近59 a春茶采摘期间（3月1日—5月10日）主要气象要素、春霜冻灾害和基于气候品质指数的春茶气候品质等级的变化趋势。结果表明：在气候变暖背景下,1961—2019年修水县春茶采摘期间平均气温呈明显上升趋势,平均相对湿度呈减小趋势,日照时数呈显著增加趋势;春霜日数呈明显减少趋势,春霜冻发生概率在下降;近59 a来修水县春茶气候品质等级为特优、优和良的总日数呈增加趋势;春茶采摘期间,气候品质特优等级的概率随时间呈先增加后减小的趋势,等级为优和良的概率呈增加趋势。综合考虑平均气温、平均相对湿度、日照时数等气象条件,以及春霜冻和春茶气候品质等级变化特征,认为气候变暖有利于修水县春茶品质趋好。     

Vertical Heat Transfer in the Lower Atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean During Clear-sky Periods

A diagnostic study of heat transfer within the lower atmosphere and between the atmosphere and the surface of the Arctic Ocean snow/ice pack during clear-sky conditions is conducted using data from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) field experiment. Surface heat budgets computed for four cloudy and four clear periods show that, while the net turbulent heat fluxes at the surface are small during the cloudy periods, during the clear-sky periods they are a considerable source of surface heating, balancing significant portions of the conductive heat fluxes from within the snow/ice pack. Analysis of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the lower atmosphere during the clear-sky periods reveals that a considerable portion of the heat lost to the surface by turbulent heat fluxes is balanced by locally strong heating near the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) top due to the interaction of subsiding motions with the strong overlying temperature inversions surmounting the ABL. This heat is then entrained into the ABL and transported to the surface by turbulent mixing, maintained by a combination of vertical wind shear and wave-turbulence interactions. The frequency of stable, clear-sky periods, particularly during the winter, combined with these results, suggests that the downward transfer of heat through the lower atmosphere and into the surface represents an important component of the heat budgets of the lower atmosphere and snow/ice pack over the annual cycle     

ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known as the strongest natural inter-annual climate signal, having widespread consequences on the global weather, climate, ecology and even on societies. Understanding ENSO variations in a changing climate is therefore of primordial interest to both the climate community and policy makers. In this study, we focus on the change in ENSO nonlinearity due to climate change. We first analysed high statistical moments of observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) timeseries of the tropical Pacific based on the measurement of the tails of their Probability Density Function (PDF). This allows defining relevant metrics for the change in nonlinearity observed over the last century. Based on these metrics, a zonal “see-saw” (oscillation) in nonlinearity patterns is highlighted that is associated with the change in El Niño characteristics observed in recent years. Taking advantage of the IPCC database and the different projection scenarios, it is showed that changes in El Niño statistics (or “flavour”) from a present-day climate to a warmer climate are associated with a significant change in nonlinearity patterns. In particular, in the twentieth century climate, the “conventional” eastern Pacific El Niño relates more to changes in nonlinearity than to changes in mean state whereas the central Pacific El Niño (or Modoki El Niño) is more sensitive to changes in mean state than to changes in nonlinearity. An opposite behaviour is found in a warmer climate, namely the decreasing nonlinearity in the eastern Pacific tends to make El Niño less frequent but more sensitive to mean state, whereas the increasing nonlinearity in the west tends to trigger Central Pacific El Niño more frequently. This suggests that the change in ENSO statistics due to climate change might result from changes in the zonal contrast of nonlinearity characteristics across the tropical Pacific.     

增暖背景下东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态及其形成机制

基于CMIP5中全新世(Mid-Holocene,6 ka BP)试验及RCP8.5试验的对比,本文研究了不同增暖情景下东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态及其成因.结果表明,两种增暖情景下东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态存在显著差异.轨道辐射主导的中全新世暖期期间,东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态为经向三极子结构;而大气C...     

The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models

Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions.     

Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden “switch-on” of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts.