应用灰色系统理论试预测贵州气候灾变

应用灰色系统理论灾变预测方法,对贵州秋风,夏旱,倒春寒和凝冻指数建立了灾害预测模型,试作了１９９８－２０００年的灾变年份预测。     

基于灰色系统的雷电灾害危害度评价与预测

通过分析雷击爆炸火灾事故数、雷击死亡人数、雷击受伤人数、直接经济损失等4项灾害影响因子.计算各因子与雷电灾害的灰色关联度和权重指数,对每年雷电灾害的危害程度进行评价,利用灰色灾变预测方法对未来出现重度以上的雷灾年进行预测.     

东北地区农业气象灾害定量评估

利用1971—2008年东北地区农业生产资料及主要农业气象灾害资料,计算了干旱、洪涝、风雹和低温冷害的影响权重、成灾率及其变异值。在此基础上,分析了4类灾害对农业生产的影响程度,并进行了综合评估。结果表明：东北地区干旱影响权重最大,并呈增加趋势;黑龙江省各种灾害权重均大于吉林省、辽宁省;东北地区气象灾害以小灾和轻灾为主,但气象灾害对农业生产危害程度越来越严重,特别是2000年以来,重大灾害的发生频率明显升高。     

东北地区农业气象灾害定量评估

利用1971-2008年东北地区农业生产资料及主要农业气象灾害资料,计算了干旱、洪涝、风雹和低温冷害的影响权重、成灾率及其变异值。在此基础上,分析了4类灾害对农业生产的影响程度,并进行了综合评估。结果表明：东北地区干旱影响权重最大,并呈增加趋势;黑龙江省各种灾害权重均大于吉林省、辽宁省;东北地区气象灾害以小灾和轻灾为主...     

农林重大病虫害和农业气象灾害的预警及控制技术研究

1 农业气象灾害预警技术研究 对华北农业干旱、东北作物低温冷害、江淮小麦油菜渍害、华南经济林果寒害和水产寒害等农业气象灾害分别建立了统计预测模型和机理预测模型相结合、长中短不同预报时效相结合的预警预测模型。其中作物生长模型与区域气候模式相结合的新一代农业气象灾害预测技术在实现区域尺度预测应用上取得重要进展；各类预测模型在灾害指标、预测方法上取得新的突破，预报准确率进一步提高。在此基础上，成功研制出包含多种预测方法、不同预报时效、可供准业务运行的农业气象灾害多灾种综合预测预警系统。课题研制的模型进行了业务试验，部分成果如广东经济林果寒害预警已投入业务运行。课题于2005年12月顺利通过项目主持单位农业部组织的专家验收。该课题成果代表了我国目前农业气象灾害预警预测研究的最新进展和水平，对于进一步开展和提高其他地区、其他灾害的预报能力具有一定的推广借鉴作用和应用前景。     

层次分析法在忻州市气象灾害影响权重分析中的应用

采用AHP方法对忻州市气象灾害影响权重进行量化分析,得出了忻州市主要气象灾害的影响权重为:干旱(0.463 5)>暴雨(0.225 2)>冰雹(0.180 7)>大风(0.094 4)>霜冻(0.036 2)。忻州市1980～2010年气象观测资料和气象灾害灾情资料分析表明,利用层次分析法得到的各灾种影响权重,与实际情况吻合较好。     

河南干旱指标的客观性研究

利用河南1951－1998年的降水资料及干旱灾害对农业影响的实况资料，分析评价了已有的干旱指标，结果表明，根据有限长样本资料序列研究建立的干旱指标，其应用客观性随着干旱灾害过程资料样本增大而降低，通过反复试验，确定了以降水Z指数为基础的干旱评价指标及监测预警指标。     

灰色预测模型及干旱预测

利用莘县、聊城、高唐3个代表站1960-2009年降水资料,建立了聊城地区降水序列,分析了近50年聊城地区降水量年变化特征,年降水量具有明显减少趋势,干旱有增加的趋势。以此序列为基础重建干旱发生的灾变序列,采用灰色系统GM（1,1）的三种模型探讨了旱灾预测问题。在WindowsXP系统下,用VB6编程计算预测结果,历史拟合效果较好,检验精度较高,尤其以新优化预测模型预测精度最高。对未来年份进行初步预测表明：2011年、2015年前后聊城地区出现干旱年的可能性大。     

灰色系统模型在肇庆地区春季干旱年预测中的应用

根据肇庆1961—2014年春季降水资料,采用降水量距平百分率和灰色灾变预测理论,建立肇庆地区春季干旱年灾变序列及其预测模型。结果表明,春季干旱年预测模型灰色关联度为ε=0.943 537,达到一级精度标准。2014年之后第1次出现春季干旱的时间为2015—2016年,第2次为2021—2022年,第3次为2027—2028年,第4次为2034—2035年。     

用带周期分量的多元回归模型预测贵州气象灾害变化趋势

选择与贵州农业生产有重要影响的春旱,夏旱,倒春寒,秋风,秋绵雨,凝冻６种气象灾害作研究对象,在对分析了它们的时空分布特征和序列周期期规律的基础上,用逐步回归筛选法,建立了邓序列各种延拓周期分量为预报因子的多元回归预测模型。据此,对１９９８－２０００年的６种气象灾害的变化趋势进行了预测。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.