The significance of coral reefs as global carbon sinks— response to Greenhouse

Coral reefs are net sinks for C, principally as CaCO₃ accretion. It is possible to predict quite accurately the rate of production, given adequate information about any particular reef environment. The best data set for an extensive region is that for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Careful analysis of this region and the incorporation of previously documented present day system calcification rates suggest net production (G) from G = 1 (kg CaCO₃ m⁻² yr⁻¹) for fringing reefs, to G = 1.9 for planar (infiled platform) reefs, G = 3 for ribbon reefs and lagoonal reefs. The 20,055 km² of reefs in the GBR are thus estimated to average G = 2.4, resulting in a total production of 50 million tonnes yr⁻¹. In a 50–100 year Greenhouse scenario of rising sealevel, we predict that recolonisation of present day reef flats will be extensive and prolific. Production will increase substantially, and this could be by as much as 40% (ranging from 0% for deep shoals to 180% for fringing reefs) to give 70 million tonnes yr⁻¹ if the rate of sealevel rise reaches or exceeds 6–8 mm yr⁻¹We estimate 115,000 km² of oceanic atolls worldwide. Drawing on points equivalence from the detailed analysis of the GBR, we estimate the atolls presently produce 160 million tonnes yr⁻¹. We predict that a similar 40% increase could be possible in the next 100 years or so resulting in a production of 220 million tonnes.Accepting an existing estimate of 617,000 km² for reefs worldwide, drawing from our projections from the GBR and the atolls, and making some assumptions about the remaining reef types (we suggest fringing reefs to dominate) we estimate global reef production at the present time to be 900 million tonnes yr⁻¹. Within the next 100 years or so, we suggest this rate could almost double to 1800 million tonnes. In the long term (several centuries) we predict that the continuing trend of recolonisation, particularly of fringing and planar reefs could result in the production of > 3000 million tonnes yr⁻¹ if rates of sealevel rise approaching or exceeding 6–8 mm yr⁻¹ are achieved. Eventually (> 500 yr), reefs could actually “drown” due to inability to match the rate of sealevel increase if that rate significantly exceeds 6–8 mm yr⁻¹.Thus, coral reefs at present act as a sink for 111 million tonnes C yr⁻¹, the equivalent of 2% of present output of anthropogenic CO₂. In the short term Greenhouse scenario (100 yr) we predict this could increase to the equivalent of 4% of the present CO₂ output. In the much longer term (several centuries), if all trends continue, this could increase to the equivalent of as much as 9% of the present CO₂ output.Unfortunately, we also predict that this considerable sink for C will be most likely of negative value in alleviating Greenhouse because of the immediate effect of CaCO₃ precipitation is to raise the P_CO2 of the surface oceans — ie, ot encourage CO₂ efflux to the atmosphere. We do not attempt to quantify this effect.Other Greenhouse changes such as seawater temperature increase, changes in cloud cover, increased rainfall and runoff, increased storm activity, and changes in dissolved CO₂ concentration and surface ocean circulation may complicate the reef response. However, we suggest that sealevel rise will be the dominant influence, at least during the next 100 years or so.     

Climate changes and recent glacier behaviour in the Chilean Lake District

Atmospheric temperatures measured at the Chilean Lake District (38°–42°S) showed contrasting trends during the second half of the 20th century. The surface cooling detected at several meteorological stations ranged from − 0.014 to − 0.021 °C a^− 1, whilst upper troposphere (850–300 gpm) records at radiosonde of Puerto Montt (41°26′S/73°07′W) revealed warming between 0.019 and 0.031 °C a^− 1. Regional rainfall data collected from 1961 to 2000 showed the overall decrease with a maximum rate of − 15 mm a^− 2 at Valdivia st. (39°38′S/73°05′W). These ongoing climatic changes, especially the precipitation reduction, seem to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena which has been more frequent after 1976. Glaciers within the Chilean Lake District have significantly retreated during recent decades, in an apparent out-of-phase response to the regional surface cooling. Moreover, very little is known about upper troposphere changes and how they can enhance the glacier responses. In order to analyse their behaviour in the context of the observed climate changes, Casa Pangue glacier (41°08′S/71°52′W) has been selected and studied by comparing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) computed at three different dates throughout the last four decades. This approach allowed the determination of ice elevation changes between 1961 and 1998, yielding a mean thinning rate of − 2.3 ± 0.6 m a^− 1. Strikingly, when ice thinning is computed for the period between 1981 and 1998, the resulting rate is 50% higher (− 3.6 ± 0.6 m a^− 1). This enhanced trend and the related area loss and frontal retreat suggests that Casa Pangue might currently be suffering negative mass balances in response to the upper troposphere warming and decreased precipitation of the last 25–30 yr, as well as debris cover would not prevent the glacier from a fast reaction to climate forcing. Most of recent glaciological studies regarding Andean glaciers have concentrated on low altitude changes, namely frontal variations, however, in order to better understand the regional glacier changes, new data are necessary, especially from the accumulation areas.     

Estimation of the energy used to melt snow in the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands

The heat needed to melt snow over the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands for 10-day period (TDP) was estimated. Melting curves and a map of snowmelt duration were obtained through the long-term data from 79 stations in the Tien Shan mountains and 20 stations in the Japanese Islands. At high elevations in the mountains, about 40% of the snow melts during penultimate 10 days of snow cover. In the Japanese Islands, about 80% of the snow melts during the last 20 days of snow cover. Over the mountains, 0.13×10⁴ MJ m² year⁻¹ is needed to melt snow in the northern and western Tien Shan where maximum snow accumulation occurred. The volume of air cooled 10 °C by snowmelt amounted to 4.4×10⁶ km³ year⁻¹ over the Tien Shan mountains and 3×10⁶ km³ year⁻¹ over the Japanese Islands. The most significant impact of snowmelt on air temperature was observed at an elevation of 2500 m in the western and northern Tien Shan. Air that was cooled 10 °C could reach an elevation of 2.1 km day⁻¹. Over the Japanese Islands, energy losses from snowmelt amounted to 0.26×10¹⁴ MJ year⁻¹ and the maximum occurred over Honshu Island. The heat loss from snowmelt in the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands amounted to about 2/3 of heat loss in the Eurasian continental plains.     

Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000

The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr^− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr^− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr^− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr^− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr^− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.     

Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

Mean-sea-level data from coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean were used to show that low-frequency variability is consistent among the stations in the basin. Statistically significant trends obtained from records longer than 40 years yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm yr^− 1, with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr^− 1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data. These estimates are consistent with the 1–2 mm yr^− 1 global sea-level-rise estimates reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Brief description of bare essentials of surface transfer and results from simulations with the HAPEX-MOBILHY data

The Bare Essentials of Surface Transfer (BEST) land surface scheme is briefly described and the key physical parameterisations discussed. Results are then presented to illustrate how the model performs, with forcing data for HAPEX-MOBILHY, compared to a series of other schemes in the simulation of evaporation and sensible heat. The implications of the models performance, and some indications of the future development of the scheme are provided. The basic version of BEST was found to overestimate evaporation for the HAPEX-MOBILHY data, simulating 816 mm yr⁻¹ compared to a range of 550 to 816 mm yr⁻¹ for all models. A modification to the β parameterisation reduced the evaporation to 759 mm yr⁻¹ which, although an improvement, is still probably too high.     

Quaternary uplift of northern England

Upland flats, attributable to erosion, have long been recognised in the landscape of the Lake District region of NW England, at altitudes of up to ~ 800 m O.D. Extrapolation using uplift rates derived from dated Pleistocene sites (karstic caves and other features) in the adjacent Pennine uplands suggests that if this succession of flats formed close to sea-level they date from the Middle Pliocene onwards, indicating a subsequent time-averaged uplift rate of almost 0.3 mm a^− 1. Numerical modelling indicates that erosion of surrounding areas at a typical rate of 0.2 mm a^− 1 since 3.1 Ma could have caused this uplift, as well as constraining the local effective viscosity of the lower crust as ~ 4 × 10¹⁸ Pa s and the typical local Moho temperature as ~ 650 °C. It is thus feasible that most of the topography of northern England has developed since the Middle Pliocene, as a consequence of coupling between erosion and the resulting induced flow in the lower continental crust. The much faster vertical crustal motions indicated in this part of northern England, compared with SE England, are thus mainly a consequence of much greater mobility of the lower crust in the north, due to its younger thermal age and the heating effect of radioactive Palaeozoic granites. Uplift of this magnitude, which has previously gone unrecognised, may have affected post-Pliocene global climate.     

Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in the martian atmosphere

Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in the martian CO₂ are key values to study evolution of volatiles on Mars. The major problems in spectroscopic determinations of these ratios on Mars are uncertainties associated with: (1) equivalent widths of the observed absorption lines, (2) line strengths in spectroscopic databases, and (3) thermal structure of the martian atmosphere during the observation. We have made special efforts to reduce all these uncertainties. We observed Mars using the Fourier Transform Spectrometer at the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope. While the oxygen and carbon isotope ratios on Mars were byproducts in the previous observations, our observation was specifically aimed at these isotope ratios. We covered a range of 6022 to 6308 cm⁻¹ with the highest resolving power of ν/δν=3.5×10⁵ and a signal-to-noise ratio of 180 in the middle of the spectrum. The chosen spectral range involves 475 lines of the main isotope, 184 lines of ¹³CO₂, 181 lines of CO¹⁸O, and 119 lines of CO¹⁷O. (Lines with strengths exceeding 10⁻²⁷ cm at 218 K are considered here.) Due to the high spectral resolution, most of the lines are not blended. Uncertainties of retrieved isotope abundances are in inverse proportion to resolving power, signal-to-noise ratio, and square root of the number of lines. Laboratory studies of the CO₂ isotope spectra in the range of our observation achieved an accuracy of 1% in the line strengths. Detailed observations of temperature profiles using MGS/TES and data on temperature variations with local time from two GCMs are used to simulate each absorption line at various heights in each part of the instrument field of view and then sum up the results. Thermal radiation of Mars' surface and atmosphere is negligible in the chosen spectral range, and this reduces errors associated with uncertainties in the thermal structure on Mars. Using a combination of all these factors, the highest accuracy has been achieved in measuring the CO₂ isotope ratios: ¹³C/¹²C = 0.978 ± 0.020 and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O = 1.018 ± 0.018 times the terrestrial standards. Heavy isotopes in the atmosphere are enriched by nonthermal escape and sputtering, and depleted by fractionation with solid-phase reservoirs. The retrieved ratios show that isotope fractionation between CO₂ and oxygen and carbon reservoirs in the solid phase is almost balanced by nonthermal escape and sputtering of O and C from Mars.     

The rotational temperature and column density of H3 in Uranus

H₃⁺ emission from Uranus has been observed repeatedly for over a decade. However, the details of the emission mechanisms are still poorly understood. In this paper, we discuss our findings from the observations we made in September 2000 and September 2001. The spectrum of Uranus was recorded at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility using the SpeX instrument between 3 and 5 μm, with a resolving power of 1000. The 3.4–4.1 μm range permits a determination of both the H₃⁺ column density and its rotational temperature. The H₃⁺ emission, measured at 3.986 μm in the 0.8×3.7 arcsec aperture, was 0.031 Jy in September 2000 and 0.053 Jy in September 2001. The rotational temperature was found to be 560±40 K and 640±40 K in 2000 and 2001 respectively, with corresponding column densities of 5.1 (+3.2,−1.4) 10¹¹ and 4.0 (+1.8,−1.0) 10¹¹ cm⁻². These results extend the baseline for the variability study of the H₃⁺ emission (Astrophys. J. 524 (1999) 1059). Previous observations between 1992 and 1998 seemed to indicate a correlation between the H₃⁺ intensity and the solar cycle. The current data for 2000 and 2001 appear to be consistent with this general tendency.     

Primary production and microbial activity in the euphotic zone of Lake Baikal (Southern Basin) during late winter

Three years of regular weekly/biweekly monitoring of seasonal changes in temperature, transparency, chlorophyll a (CHL) and bacteria [erythrosine-stained microscopic counts and cultivable colony forming units (CFUs)] at the vertical profile in the South basin of Lake Baikal (51°54′195″N, 105°04′235″E, depth 800 m) were evaluated. In more detail, the structure and function of phytoplankton and the microbial loop in the euphotic layer at the same site were investigated during the late-winter–early-spring period under the ice. The depth of euphotic zone (up to 1% of surface irradiation) was 35 to 40 m. Primary production was measured three times a week with the ¹⁴C method in 2, 10, 20, 30 and 40 m. Maximum production was found in 10 m, with lower values towards the surface (light inhibition) and towards the lower layers. The total production in cells larger than 1 μm in the column (0–40 m) was 204–240 mg C d⁻¹ m⁻², 30–40% of it being in cells 1–3 μm (mostly picocyanobacteria), which represented roughly 9% of the total chlorophyll a (estimated from pigment analyses). A major part of phytoplankton biomass was formed by diatoms (Synedra acus Hust., Asterionella formosa Hass. and Stephanodiscus meyerii Genkal & Popovskaya). Total production (including extracellular, dissolved organic matter) was 235–387 mg C day⁻¹ m⁻², and the exudates were readily used by bacteria (particles 0.2–1 μm). This part amounted to 1–5% of cellular production in 2 to 20 m and 11–77% of cellular production in 20–40 m, i.e., in light-limited layers. From 0 to 30 m, chlorophyll a concentration was 0.8 to 1.3 μg l⁻¹, wherefrom it decreased rapidly to 0.1 μg l⁻¹ towards the depth of 40 m. Bacteria (DAPI-stained microscopic counts) reached 0.5–1.4×10⁶ ml⁻¹; their cell volumes measured via image analysis were small (average 0.05 μm⁻³), often not well countable when erythrosine stain was used. Bacterial biomasses were in the range of 6–21 μg C l⁻¹. Numbers of colony forming units (CFUs) on nutrient fish-agar were c. 3–4 orders lower than DAPI counts. The amounts of heterotrophic protists were low, whereby flagellates reached 6 to 87 ml⁻¹ and ciliates, 0.2–1.2 ml⁻¹ (mostly Oligotrichida). Bacterial production was measured in the same depths as primary production using ³H-thymidine (Thy) and ¹⁴C-leucine (Leu) uptake. Consistently, bacterial abundances, biomasses, thymidine and leucine production were higher by 30–50% in layers 2, 10 and 20 m compared with that in the deeper 30 and 40 m, where cellular primary production was negligible. Leucine uptake in the deeper layers was even three times lower than in the upper ones. From the comparison of primary and bacterial production, bacteria roughly use 20–40% of primary production during 24 h in the layers 2 to 20 m.     

1000 years of climate variability in central Asia: assessing the evidence using Lake Baikal (Russia) diatom assemblages and the application of a diatom-inferred model of snow cover on the lake

The mainly endemic phytoplankton record of Lake Baikal has been used in this study to help interpret climate variability during the last 1000 years in central Asia. The diatom record was derived from a short core taken from the south basin and has been shown to be free from any sedimentary heterogeneities. We employ here a diatom-based inference model of snow accumulation on the frozen lake for the first time (r²_boot=0.709; RMSEP=0.120 log cm). However, palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have been improved by the use of correction factors, specifically developed for the dominant phytoplankton (Aulacoseira baicalensis, Aulacoseira skvortzowii, Cyclotella minuta, Stephanodiscus meyerii and Synedra acus) in the south basin of Lake Baikal. Cluster analysis identifies three significant zones in the core, zone 1 (c. 880 AD–c. 1180 AD), zone 2 (c. 1180–1840 AD) and zone 3 (c. 1840–1994 AD), coincident with the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the period of recent warming, respectively. Our results indicate that S. acus dominated the diatom phytoplankton within zone 1 coincident with the MWP. S. acus is an opportunistic species that is able to increase its net growth when A. baicalensis does not. During this period, conditions are likely to have been unfavourable for the net increases in A. baicalensis growth due to the persistence of warm water in the lake, together with an increased length of summer stratification and delay in timing of the autumnal overturn. In zone 2, spring diatom crops blooming under the ice declined in abundances due in part to increased winter severity and snow cover on the lake. Accumulating snow on the lake is likely to have arisen from increased anticyclonic activity, resulting in prolonged winters expressed during the LIA. Thick, accumulating snow cover inhibits light penetration through the ice, thereby having negative effects on cell division rate and extent of turbulence underneath the ice. Consequently, only taxa whose net growth occurs during autumn overturn (C. minuta) predominate in the lake at this time. Diatom census data and reconstructions of snow accumulation suggest that warming in the Lake Baikal region started as early as c. 1750 AD, with a shift from taxa that bloom during autumn overturn to assemblages that begin to grow underneath the frozen lake in spring. Very recent increases and subsequent decline of S. acus in the surface sediments of the lake mirror monitoring records of this species over the last 50 years. Our study confirms that, over the last 1000 years, physical processes are important in determining planktonic diatom populations in the lake and highlights the value of integrated plankton, trap, and sediment studies for improving quantitative palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from fossil material.     

Energetic neutral atom imaging of Mercury's magnetosphere 3. Simulated images and instrument requirements

The paper presents simulations of the energetic neutral atom (ENA) production in the Mercury magnetosphere and the obtained ENA images for the equatorial and polar vantage points. The ENA fluxes are found to be 10²–10³ (cm² srskeV)⁻¹ and up to 10⁴–10⁵ (cm² srskeV)⁻¹ in the energy range 10–50 keV. Due to the small size of the magnetosphere, the particles injected in the tail can fill up the entire dayside magnetosphere making possible ENA imaging of the magnetospheric shape. The high variability of the Hermean magnetosphere gives rise to pulsating ENA emissions (ENA “flashes”) which can be used to study the global dynamics. The ENA instrument requirements, 10°×10° angular resolution and 20 s accumulation time, can be easily met by modern ENA instrumentation. Therefore, ENA imaging of the Mercury magnetosphere is feasible.     

A late Quaternary lake record from the Qilian Mountains (NW China): evolution of the primary production and the water depth reconstructed from macrofossil, pollen, biomarker, and isotope data

The history (45–0 ka BP) of the aquatic vegetation composition of the shallow alpine Lake Luanhaizi from the NE Tibetan Plateau is inferred from aquatic plant macrofossil frequencies and aquatic pollen and algae concentrations in the sediments. C/N (range: 0.3–100), δ¹³C (range: −28 to −15‰), and n-alkane measurements yielded further information on the quantitative composition of sedimentary organic matter. The inferred primary production of the former lake ecosystem has been examined in respect of the alternative stable state theory of shallow lakes [Scheffer, M., 1989. Alternative stable states in eutrophic, shallow freshwater systems: a minimal model. Hydrobiological Bulletin 23, 73–83]. Switches between clear and turbid water conditions are explained by a colder climate and forest decline in the catchment area of Lake Luanhaizi. The macrofossil-based reconstruction of past water depth and salinity ranges, as well as other organic matter (OM) proxies allowed climatic inferences of the summer monsoon intensity during the late Quaternary. Around 45 ka BP, conditions similar to or even moister than present-day climate occurred. The Lake Luanhaizi record is further evidence against an extensive glaciation of the Tibetan Plateau and its bordering mountain ranges during the Last Glacial Maximum. Highest lake levels and consequently a strong summer monsoon are recorded for the early Holocene period, while gradually decreasing lake levels are reconstructed for the middle and late Holocene.     

Morphological and ice-dynamical changes on the Tasman Glacier, New Zealand, 1990–2007

This paper presents data concerning recent (1990–2007) surface morphological and ice-dynamical changes on the Tasman Glacier, New Zealand. We use remote-sensing data to derive rates of lake growth, glacier velocities and rates of glacier surface lowering. Between 1990 and 2007, the glacier terminus receded ~ 3.5 km and a large ice-contact proglacial lake developed behind the outwash head. By 2007 the lake area was ~ 6 km² and had replaced the majority of the lowermost 4 km of the glacier tongue. There is evidence that lake growth is proceeding at increasing rates — the lake area doubled between 2000 and 2007 alone. Measured horizontal glacier velocities decline from 150 m a^− 1 in the upper glacier catchment to almost zero at the glacier terminus and there is a consequent down-glacier increase in surface debris cover. Surface debris mapping shows that a large catastrophic rockfall onto the glacier surface in 1991 is still evident as a series of arcuate debris ridges below the Hochstetter icefall. Calculated glacier surface lowering is most clearly pronounced around the terminal area of the glacier tongue, with down-wasting rates of 4.2 ± 1.4 m a^− 1 in areas adjacent to the lateral moraine ridges outside of the current lake extent. Surface lowering rates of approximately 1.9 ± 1.4 m a^− 1 are common in the upper areas of the glacier. Calculations of future lake expansion are dependent on accurate bathymetric and bed topography surveys, but published data indicate that a further 8–10 km of the glacier is susceptible to calving and further lake development in the future.     

Late glacial and Holocene environmental change in the Lake Baikal region documented by oxygen isotopes from diatom silica

We investigate late glacial and Holocene climate change recorded in Lake Baikal using the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ¹⁸O_DIAT). Evaporation from the lake is minor, and the temperature fractionations of δ¹⁸O are unable to explain variations in the δ¹⁸O_DIAT record alone. Isotopically, low meltwater input from glaciers may have some influence on δ¹⁸O_DIAT, but the assumed periods of climatic warming and wastage do not coincide with large shifts in δ¹⁸O_DIAT. There is a gradual oxygen isotope lowering from 27.0‰ to 20.6‰ over the late glacial, while, during the Holocene, δ¹⁸O_DIAT values return to relatively high values. Previous studies of the modern oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition of Lake Baikal's inputs reveal that fluvial input to the lake's North Basin are isotopically lower than fluvial input from South Basin rivers. This north–south gradient of river δ¹⁸O and δD is mainly due to the greater input from isotopically low winter precipitation in the north and isotopically higher summer precipitation in the south. As a result, the δ¹⁸O_DIAT record from Lake Baikal can at least in part be explained by varying input from these sources related to seasonal changes in precipitation. Changes in atmospheric conditions may have a role in altering seasonality and the distribution of precipitation over Lake Baikal's catchment. A feedback mechanism is well known linking higher Eurasian spring snow cover extent (ESSC) to the development of anticyclonic conditions and low precipitation the following summer in the areas south of Lake Baikal. A simultaneous increase in the importance of depleted water (snowmelt) input from the north and decreased enriched summer precipitation in the south is needed to explain depletions in δ¹⁸O of lake water and subsequently δ¹⁸O_DIAT during colder periods. The opposite of this situation is required to enrich lake water during warmer periods. The analysis of δ¹⁸O from diatom silica is a useful proxy for environmental change, especially in lakes, like Lake Baikal, where carbonates are absent or diluted. However, analysis must be based on near pure diatom samples as even trace amounts of silt can have a dominating effect on δ¹⁸O_DIAT values.     

Identification of “small” dust impacts in the Ulysses dust detector data

Since October 1990, 3 weeks after the launch of the Ulysses spacecraft, the dust detector onboard recorded impacts of cosmic dust particles. Besides dust impacts, the detector recorded noise from a variety of sources. So far, a very rigid scheme had been applied to eliminate noise from impact data. The data labeled “big” dust impacts previously led to the identification of interstellar dust and of dust streams from Jupiter. The analysis presented here is concerned with data of signals of small amplitudes which are strongly contaminated by noise. Impacts identified in this data set are called “small” impacts. It is shown that dust impacts can be clearly distinguished from noise for most of the events due to the multi-coincidence characteristics of the instrument. 516 “small” impacts have been identified. For an additional 119 events, strong arguments can be given that they are probably small dust impacts. Thereby, the total number of dust impacts increases from 333 to 968 in the time period from 28 October 1990 to 31 December 1992. This increase permits a better statistical analysis, especially of the Jupiter dust streams which consist mostly of small and fast particles. Additional dust streams have been identified between the already known streams before and after Jupiter flyby. The dependence of the deflection from the Jupiter direction, the stream intensity and width on Jupiter distance support the assertion that they have been emitted from the Jovian system. The masses of the 635 “small” dust particles range from 6 × 10⁻¹⁷ to 3 × 10⁻¹⁰ g with a mean value of 1 × 10⁻¹² g, which compares to a range from 1 × 10⁻¹⁶ to 4 × 10⁻⁹ g with a mean value of 2 × 10⁻¹¹ g for the previously identified 333 “big” dust particles.     

Simulated responses of Pinus halepensis forest productivity to climatic change and CO2 increase using a statistical model

Tree ring chronologies provide long-term records of growth in natural environmental conditions and may be used to evaluate impacts of climatic change and CO₂ increase on forest productivity. This study focuses on 21 Pinus halepensis forest stands in calcareous Provence (in the south-east of France). A chronology of net primary productivity (NPP) both for the 20th century and for each stand was estimated using tree ring data (width and density). The response of each stand to climate in terms of NPP was statistically modelled using response functions. Anomalies between estimated NPP and NPP reconstructed by response functions were calculated to evaluate the fertilising effect of CO₂ increase on tree growth. The changes in anomalies during the 20th century were attributed to the effect of CO₂ increase. A multiplying factor (β) linking CO₂ concentration and stand productivity was then calculated, on the basis of the trend observed during the 20th century. In this study, the value of the β factor obtained under natural conditions (β=0.50) is consistent with those from controlled CO₂ enrichment experiments. Both response functions and the β factor were used to predict NPP changes for a 2×CO₂ scenario. The 2×CO₂ climate was obtained using predictions from Météo France's ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaled to Marseilles meteorological station. NPP increased significantly for nine stands solely when the climatic effect was taken into account. The main factors responsible for this enhancement were increased winter and early spring temperatures. When the fertilising effect of the CO₂ increase was added, NPP was significantly enhanced for 14 stands (i.e. NPP enhancement ranged from 8% to 55%). Although the effects of global change were slightly detectable during the 20th century, their acceleration is likely to lead to great changes in the future productivity of P. halepensis forests.     

High-resolution bispectrum speckle interferometry and two-dimensional radiative transfer modeling of the Red Rectangle

We present the first diffraction-limited K-band image of the Red Rectangle with 76 mas resolution, an H-band image with 75 mas resolution, and an RG 715 filter image ( 800 nm wavelength) with 78 mas resolution (corresponding to 25 AU for a distance of 330 pc). The H and K images were reconstructed from 6 m telescope speckle data and the RG 715 image from 2.2 m telescope data using the speckle masking bispectrum method. At all wavelengths the images show a compact, highly symmetric bipolar nebula, suggesting a toroidal density distribution of the circumstellar material. No direct light from the central binary can be seen as it is obscured by a dust disk or circumbinary torus. Our first high-resolution H−K color image of the nebula shows a broad red plateau of H−K≈ 2^m in the bright inner regions.The optical and near-infrared images and the available photometric continuum observations in a wide range of ultraviolet to centimeter wavelengths enabled us to model the Red Rectangle in detail using a two-dimensional radiative transfer code. Our model matches both the high-resolution images and the spectral energy distribution of this object very well, making the following picture much more certain. The central close binary system with a total luminosity of 3000 L is embedded in a very dense, compact circumbinary torus which has an average number density n_H ≈5×10¹² cm⁻³, an outer radius of the dense inner region of R≈30 AU (91 mas), and a ρ∝r⁻² density distribution. The full opening angle of the bipolar outflow cavities in our model is 70°. By comparing the observed and theoretical images, we derived an inclination angle of the torus to the line of sight of 7°±1°.The radiative transfer calculations show that the dust properties in the Red Rectangle are spatially inhomogeneous. The modeling confirms that the idea of large grains in the long-lived disk around the Red Rectangle (Jura et al., 1997 [ApJ, 474, 741]) is quantitatively consistent with the observations. In our models, unusually large, approximately millimeter-sized grains dominate the emission of the compact, massive torus. Models with smaller average grain sizes can possibly be found in future studies, for instance, if it turns out that the radio spectrum is not mainly caused by continuum dust emission. Therefore, the large grains suggested by our models require further confirmation by both new observations and radiative transfer calculations. Assuming a dust-to-gas ratio ρ_d/ρ_g of 0.005, the dense torus mass is 0.25 M. The model gives a lower limit of 0.0018 M, for the mass of the large particles, which produce a gray extinction of A≈ 28^m, towards the center. A much smaller mass of submicron-sized dust grains is presumably located in the polar outflow cavities, their conical surface layers, and in the outer low-density parts of the torus (where ρ∝r⁻⁴, in the region of 30 AUr 2000 AU corresponding to 0.^′′09–6^′′).     

The shielding effect of small-scale martian surface geometry on ultraviolet flux

The atmosphere of Mars does little to attenuate incoming ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Large amounts of UV radiation sterilize the hardiest of terrestrial organisms within minutes, and chemically alter the soil such that organic molecules at or near the surface are rapidly destroyed. Thus the survival of any putative martian life near the surface depends to a large extent on how much UV radiation it receives. Variations in small-scale geometry of the surface such as pits, trenches, flat faces and overhangs can have a significant effect on the incident UV flux and may create “safe havens” for organisms and organic molecules. In order to examine this effect, a 1-D radiative transfer sky model with 836 meshed points (plus the Sun) was developed which includes both diffuse and direct components of the surface irradiance. This model derives the variation of UV flux with latitude and an object's Geometric Shielding Ratio (a ratio which describes the geometry of each situation). The best protection is offered by overhangs with flux reduced to a factor of 1.8±0.2×10⁻⁵ of the unprotected value, a reduction which does not vary significantly by latitude. Pits and cracks are less effective with a reduction in UV flux of only up to 4.5±0.5×10⁻³ for the modeled scenarios; however, they are more effective for the same geometric shielding ratio than overhangs at high latitudes due to the low height of the Sun in the sky. Lastly, polar faces of rocks have the least effective shielding geometry with at most a 1.1±0.1×10⁻¹ reduction in UV flux. Polar faces of rocks are most effective at mid latitudes where the Sun is never directly overhead, as at tropical latitudes, and never exposes the back of the rock, as at polar latitudes. In the most favorable cases, UV flux is sufficiently reduced such that organic in-fall could accumulate beneath overhanging surfaces and in pits and cracks. As well, hardy terrestrial microorganisms such as Bacillus pumilus could persist for up to 100 sols on the outer surfaces of typical spacecraft or several tens of martian years in the most shielded surface niches.     

Molecular cores of the high-latitude cloud MBM 40

Towards the high-latitude cloud MBM 40, we identify 3 dense molecular cores of M0.2–0.5 M, and sizes of 0.2 pc in diameter embedded in the H I cloud of 8 M which is observed to be extended along the northeast–southwest direction. The molecular cloud is located almost perpendicularly to the H I emission. We confirm the previous result of Magnani et al. that MBM 40 is not a site for new star formations. We found a very poor correlation between the H I and the IRAS 100 μm emissions, but the CO (1–0) and 100 μm emissions show a better correlation of W_CO/I₁₀₀=1±0.2 K km s⁻¹ (MJy sr⁻¹)⁻¹. This ratio is larger by a factor of ≥5 than in dense dark clouds, which may indicate that the CO is less depleted in MBM 40 than in dense dark clouds.