地震活动的灰色预测和地震前兆的灰色判别

本文运用灰色系统理论和方法，对地震活动进行灰色预测，表明河北诏山7.8级强震和江苏常熟5.1级中强震建模预测效果良好，对地震前兆数据作新息模型和等维新息模型的异常判别，以及包络模型判别、拓扑模型群判别，可以鉴别出地震前兆异常，实为地震前兆分析的一种新方法。     

新疆地震趋势的模糊灰色预测

从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件，把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测ＧＭ（１，１）中，建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区（带）的震级序列，在等维情况下，对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣，讨论了影响预测结果的因素，最后给出了不同目标震级下各区（带）的预测值。     

地震拓扑预测

本文对地震参数建立了地震拓扑空间并把灰色系统理论中的拓扑预测方法引入地震预测之中,研究地震长趋势的预测问题。     

扬铜地震构造带中强地震灰色预测

本文用灰色灾变预测方法，以两次中强地震的间隔时间或历次中强地震发生时间作为原始建模数列，分别建立扬铜地震构造带Ｍ＿Ｓ≥４．Ｏ和Ｍ＿ｓ≥５．０地震灰色预测模型。通过近年对该带中强地震发生时间预测实践，证明该模型的预测精度和效果均令人满意，说明灰色预测方法可以作为地震预报综合研究的内容之一。     

1987年寻乌地震前的地震活动性异常特征及其相关讨论

利用“八五”，“九五”地震预报攻关研究的成果。对1987年寻乌Ms5.5级地震前的地震活动性异常特征进行了再研究。结果表明，此次地震前出现小震活动空区，地震活动“增强-平静”，前兆性震群活动等多项明显的地震活动性异常。这些异常还表现出一些中期向短期过渡的特征。对将来主震的中短期预测具有一定的参考价值。     

河北省及邻区中等地震活动前的地磁异常

给出了2001年7月份发生在处及邻区一组地震活动前的地磁异常和震前对地震进行了不同程度的预测。对异常与地震的关系进行了分析，认为地磁方法不但对较强地地震反应明显，而对相对平静期的显著地震也有所显示。     

长江中下游-南黄海地震带地震趋势研究

运用灰色理论对长江中下游－南黄海地震带从1971年开始的20世纪第2个地震活跃幕的结束时间进行了研究。结果表明，该次地震活跃幕的结束时间大约在2019年，还运用灰色理论对该地震带未来的地震形势进行了预测。所得结果可供华东地区地震大形势分析和地震的中期预报参考。     

华北地区中强地震发生时间的预测研究

通过对华北地区中强地震（指Ms≥5．5的地震）发生时间不均匀性的研究结果表明：自1815年以来，该区可划分为5个中强地震集中活跃时段。可用灰色系统理论和方法建立灰色预测模型。预测未来一个活跃时段的起止时间。如果发生在活跃时段内的中强地震的发生时间呈较好的线性趋势变化，则可用二指数平滑方法进行预测。在此基础上，本文还对它的预测精度作了估计。     

台湾强震的灰色拓扑预测

台湾地震带是我国地震活动性最高的地区，其东部海域曾发生过两次8级特大地震。本文根据灰色系统理论，利用台湾地震东带1945－1990年期间每3年中的最大地震发生的间构成的序列，建立了台泻强震（Ms≥7.5)的灰色拓扑预测模型：∧／X^(1)(t 1)=(17.0 271.81)e^0.066119t-271.81结果表明，本带可能在1994年－1996年段再次发生强震。经模型检验结果表明，其拟合精度属第一级“好”。     

寻乌地震后江西省防震减灾工作的发展与展望

1987年8月2日的寻乌5.5级地震，是建国以来江西境内发生的最大震级地震，通过对此次历史地震的回顾，归纳了江西省防震减灾工作发展过程及其经验。探讨了进一步推进工作的思路与措施。展望了江西省防震减灾工作的发展前景。     

On the synchronism in the events within the core and on the surface of the earth: the changes in the organic world and in the polarity of the geomagnetic field in the phanerozoic

The data on geomagnetic reversals are compared with the changes in the organic world and with the lower-mantle plumes. The times of the formation of plumes and the times of their appearance on the Earth’s surface relate to the intervals characterized by the different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals, i.e., there is no interrelation between the formation of plumes and the frequency of the changes in the geomagnetic field polarity. At the same time, a certain synchronism is observed between the frequency of the geomagnetic reversals and the boundaries of the biostratigraphic ages, i.e., the changes in the organic world in the long-period range. A hypothesis is proposed, which explains the change in the sign of the geomagnetic field by the combined effect of the irregular rotation of the internal core relative to the mantle and the changes in the slope angle of the axis of the Earth’s rotation, which, in turn, results in synchronous events on the Earth’s surface: the rates of changes in the organic world.     

Comparison Between the Nutations of the Planet Mars and the Nutations of the Earth

The nutations of the planets Mars andEarth are investigated and compared. Alarge number of interior structureparameters are involved in the nutationcomputations. The comparison between the observations and the computationsprovides several constraints on these parmeters andtherefore allows a better understanding of the physics of the interior of theplanet. For the Earth, the high precision of the observations of the nutationshas led to a very good determination of interior properties of the planet. ForMars, observations of nutations are not yet available, and we review how theamplitude of the Martian nutations depends on the hypotheses consideredfor its interior. Although Mars is very similar to the Earth, its interior is not well known;for example, we don't knowif its core is liquid or solid. Only if the core is liquid,the Free Core Nutation (FCN) normal mode exists and can alter the nutationswhich are close to the resonance. From the observed geoids, it is known thatboth planets are not in hydrostatic equilibrium. The departure is larger forMars than for the Earth, and consequently, the implication of considering a convective mantle instead of a mantle in hydrostatic equilibrium described byClairaut's equation for the initial equilibrium state of the planet is largeron the Martian nutations than on the Earth nutations. The consequences of theuncertainty in the core dimensions are also examined and shown to be of a veryhigh influence for Mars if the core is liquid, due to the potential changes inthe FCN resonance. The influence of the presence of an inner core, which isknown to exist for the Earth, could be more important for Mars than for theEarth if the inner core is large. Due to the presence of Tharsis on Mars, thetriaxiality of this planet has, additionally, larger effects than on Earth.     

太平洋中部地磁台11年周期变化的研究

综合APIA、HONOLULU、PAMATAI 3个地磁台三分量的11年周期变化的形态后,可定性地提出该变化源于内场。如内源为核幔边界的电涡流,则其中心点应位于3台之间。     

On the Mechanism of the Secular Tidal Acceleration of the Solid Inner Core and the Viscosity of the Liquid Core

As is known, the secular deceleration of the Earth's diurnal rotation is explained mainly by the tidal friction in the ocean. Below we consider this mechanism in some detail, taking into account also elastic deformations of the mantle under the action of ocean loading and the interaction between the tide-generating body, ocean tidal wave, liquid outer core, and solid inner core. It is shown that elastic displacements of the core-mantle boundary under the action of ocean loading are of about the same amplitude and phase as the elastic loading displacements of the Earth's outer surface. As a result, side by side with the mechanism of secular deceleration of diurnal rotation of the mantle, there are also (1) the opposite mechanism of secular acceleration of diurnal rotation of the outer liquid core and of the solid inner core and (2) the mechanism of excitation of differential rotation in the liquid core. Taking these effects into account, we compare theoretical and modern observed data on the eastward drift of the solid inner core. It is shown that the best agreement may be obtained if the turbulent viscosity of the liquid core is about 2 × 10 ³ Poise     

On the use of the autocorrelation method for estimating the depth to the magnetic basement

The depth to the top of magnetic dykes can be estimated from total field aeromagnetic data using the relation between the depth to magnetic sources and the autocorrelation function of magnetic data. By using synthetic anomalies we show that in the ideal case, depth can be determined to an accuracy of 10% or better, when the anomaly sources are two-dimensional dykes. However, the estimated depths depend on the width of the dykes. The estimated depth is about 0.6 times the actual depth to the top of thin dykes, and around the true depth for thick dykes having width-to-depth ratio around 3. The depth is considerably overestimated for very thick dykes (e.g., contacts, which is a special case of the thick dyke). Thus, the autocorrelation method requires that the width-to-depth ratio of the dyke is estimated independently to correctly estimate the depths. Alternatively, it must be assumed that the width-to-depth ratio for the two-dimensional source body is between 1.5 and 4.     

固体潮的地震预测研究与地球动力学研究之分析比较

本文分析了现行固体潮地震研究中的历史影响,对比研究了固体潮地震预测研究和固体潮地球动力学研究二者在振动频率、振动源体积、传输距离与介质等方面的地球物理特点与本质区别,强调了固体潮地震预测研究中最根本的工作是建立地震预测的目标和基本概念.     

Macrobenthic communities of the Pechora Sea: the past and the present on the threshhold of the prirazlomnoye oil-field exploitation

On data of bottom sampling, carried out by means of grab, trawl and underwater photography in August–September of 1993 in the area of the Pechora Sea, quantitative regularities of macrobenthos distribution are described for the ecological monitoring purposes. Maps of -biodiversity and biomass indices, bottom communities and trophic zones, singled out by dominant method, are presented. Assessment of structure changes of the investigated area bottom communities during the last 60–70 years is fulfilled. It is shown that the described communities on the whole are of natural undisturbed character and that the revealed changes are within the natural fluctuations in the abundance of benthic populations or may be interpreted in terms of methodical differences in the data analysis and generalization by different authors.     

动水压力对深水桥墩地震响应影响的研究综述

地震激励下处于深水中的桥墩和周围水体的相互作用将对桥梁结构的动力响应产生较大影响。首先对地震作用下水-桥墩的相互作用理论做了概括,给出了动水压力对桥墩的作用效应及各自的适用范围;对主要的三种考虑流固耦合效应的分析方法做了对比,探讨了地震作用下影响水-结构相互作用的主要因素,并对今后的研究提出了建议。     

On the gravimetric undulations of the geoid and the deflections of the vertical

Summary The author mentions the aims of the World-wide gravity project he established in the Ohio State University in Columbus, in 1950. He outlines the practical procedure of the gravimetric computations of the undulationsN and the vertical deflection components and and emphasizes that only by the global international cooperation and additional gravity observations at sea carried out during the last decade it has been possible to gather to Columbus the needed gravity material. Since there exist still large gravimetrically unsurveyed areas it is of vital significance to study what gravity anomalies are best to be used for these regions. The given figures concerning the accuracy of theN, and , estimated theoretically and obtained in practice, indicate that in the gravimetrically well surveyed parts of the world like in Europe and the United States we can get gravimetrically on basis of existing gravity material theN-values with accuracy of about 5–10 meters, and and with the accuracy of about 1. The geoid undulationsN are already computed in Columbus for more than 6000 points of the northern hemisphere. The sample maps show the interesting geoid of Europe and vicinity between the latitudes 60° and 30° and longitude 5° W and 30° E, drafted on basis of more than 1000N-values computed at the corners of 1°×1° squares. It is interesting to realize that the geoid undulations in all this area are positive, the extreme values being between 40 and 50 meters. The geophysical significance of the geoid maps of this kind is pointed out.     

琼中地震台重力仪记录同震响应特征分析

2013年2月6-8日圣克鲁斯群岛发生6次强震,琼中地震台的重力仪记录都有同震响应出现。本文从重力仪记录的面波的延迟时间、最大变形幅度、同震持续时间3个方面研究了6次强震的同震响应特征。