Numerical Modelling for Dynamic Instability Process of Submarine Soft Clay Slopes Under Seismic Loading

Marine geological disasters occurred frequently in the deep-water slope area of the northern South China Sea, especially submarine landslides, which caused serious damage to marine facilities. The cyclic elastoplastic model that can describe the cyclic stress-strain response characteristic for soft clay, is embedded into the coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian(CEL) algorithm of ABAQUS by means of subroutine interface technology. On the basis of CEL technique and undrained cyclic elastoplastic model, a method for analyzing the dynamic instability process of marine slopes under the action of earthquake load is developed. The rationality for cyclic elastoplastic constitutive model is validated by comparing its calculated results with those of von Mises model built in Abaqus. The dynamic instability process of slopes under different conditions are analyzed. The results indicate that the deformation accumulation of soft clay have a significant effect on the dynamic instability process of submarine slopes under earthquake loading. The cumulative deformation is taken into our model and this makes the calculated final deformation of the slope under earthquake load larger than the results of conventional numerical method. When different contact conditions are used for analysis, the smaller the friction coefficient is, the larger the deformation of slopes will be. A numerical analysis method that can both reflect the dynamic properties of soft clay and display the dynamic instability process of submarine landslide is proposed, which could visually predict the topographies of the previous and post failure for submarine slope.     

Prediction for potential landslide zones using seismic amplitude in Liwan gas field,northern South China Sea

The Liwan (Lw) gas field located in the northern slope of the South China Sea (SCS) is extremely complex for its sea-floor topograghy, which is a huge challenge for the safety of subsea facilities. It is economically impractical to obtain parameters for risk assessment of slope stability through a large amount of sampling over the whole field. The linkage between soil shear strength and seabed peak amplitude derived from 2D/3D seismic data is helpful for understanding the regional slope-instability risk. In this paper, the relationships among seabed peak, acoustic impedance and shear strength of shallow soil in the study area were discussed based on statistical analysis results. We obtained a similar relationship to that obtained in other deep-water areas. There is a positive correlation between seabed peak amplitude and acoustic impedance and an exponential relationship between acoustic impedance and shear strength of sediment. The acoustic impedance is the key factor linking the seismic amplitude and shear strength. Infinite slope stability analysis results indicate the areas have a high potential of shallow landslide on slopes exceeding 15° when the thickness of loose sediments exceeds 8 m in the Lw gas field. Our prediction shows that they are mainly located in the heads and walls of submarine canyons.     

Estimation of potential distribution of gas hydrate in the northern South China Sea

Gas hydrate research has significant importance for securing world energy resources, and has the potential to produce considerable economic benefits. Previous studies have shown that the South China Sea is an area that harbors gas hydrates. However, there is a lack of systematic investigations and understanding on the distribution of gas hydrate throughout the region. In this paper, we applied mineral resource quantitative assessment techniques to forecast and estimate the potential distribution of gas hydrate resources in the northern South China Sea. However, current hydrate samples from the South China Sea are too few to produce models of occurrences. Thus, according to similarity and contrast principles of mineral outputs, we can use a similar hydrate-mining environment with sufficient gas hydrate data as a testing ground for modeling northern South China Sea gas hydrate conditions. We selected the Gulf of Mexico, which has extensively studied gas hydrates, to develop predictive models of gas hydrate distributions, and to test errors in the model. Then, we compared the existing northern South China Sea hydrate-mining data with the Gulf of Mexico characteristics, and collated the relevant data into the model. Subsequently, we applied the model to the northern South China Sea to obtain the potential gas hydrate distribution of the area, and to identify significant exploration targets. Finally, we evaluated the reliability of the predicted results. The south seabed area of Taiwan Bank is recommended as a priority exploration target. The Zhujiang Mouth, Southeast Hainan, and Southwest Taiwan Basins, including the South Bijia Basin, also are recommended as exploration target areas. In addition, the method in this paper can provide a useful predictive approach for gas hydrate resource assessment, which gives a scientific basis for construction and implementation of long-term planning for gas hydrate exploration and general exploitation of the seabed of China.     

Submarine landslides on the north continental slope of the South China Sea

Recent and paleo-submarine landslides are widely distributed within strata in deep-water areas along continental slopes, uplifts, and carbonate platforms on the north continental margin of the South China Sea (SCS). In this paper, high-resolution 3D seismic data and multibeam data based on seismic sedimentology and geomorphology are employed to assist in identifying submarine landslides. In addition, deposition models are proposed that are based on specific geological structures and features, and which illustrate the local stress field over entire submarine landslides in deep-water areas of the SCS. The SCS is one of the largest fluvial sediment sinks in enclosed or semi-enclosed marginal seas worldwide. It therefore provides a set of preconditions for the formation of submarine landslides, including rapid sediment accumulation, formation of gas hydrates, and fluid overpressure. A new concept involving temporal and spatial analyses is tested to construct a relationship between submarine landslides and different time scale trigger mechanisms, and three mechanisms are discussed in the context of spatial scale and temporal frequency: evolution of slope gradient and overpressure, global environmental changes, and tectonic events. Submarine landslides that are triggered by tectonic events are the largest but occur less frequently, while submarine landslides triggered by the combination of slope gradient and over-pressure evolution are the smallest but most frequently occurring events. In summary, analysis shows that the formation of submarine landslides is a complex process involving the operation of different factors on various time scales.     

Clay mineral distribution in surface sediments of the South China Sea and its significance for in sediment sources and transport

Clay minerals of surface sediments in the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed with X-ray diffraction, and their transport is explored with a grain size trend analysis (GSTA) model. Results show that clay mineral types in various sedimentary environments have different sediment sources and transport routes. Sediments in the northern SCS (north of 20°N) between the southwest of Taiwan Island and the outer mouth of the Pearl River have high contents of illite and chlorite, which are derived mainly from sediments on Taiwan Island and/or the Yangtze River. Sediments from the Pearl River are characterized by high kaolinite and low smectite content, and most are distributed in the area between the mouth of the Pearl River and northeast of Hainan Island and transported vertically from the continental shelf to the slope. Characterized by high illite content, sediments from Kalimantan Island are transported toward the Nansha Trough. Sediments from Luzon Island are related with volcanic materials, and are transported westwards according to smectite distribution. On the Sunda Shelf, sediments from the Mekong River are transported southeast in the north while sediments from the Indonesian islands are transported northward in the south. Ascertaining surface sediment sources and their transport routes will not only improve understanding of modern transportation and depositional processes, but also aid paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic analysis of the SCS.     

Distribution of dissolved inorganic nitrogen over the continental slope of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Based on survey data from April to May 2009, distribution and its influential factors of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) over the continental slopes of the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS) are discussed. Influenced by the Changjiang (Yangtze) River water, alongshore currents, and the Kuroshio current off the coast, DIN concentrations were higher in the Changjiang River estuary, but lower (<1 μmol/L) in the northern and eastern YS and outer continental shelf area of the ECS. In the YS, the thermocline formed in spring, and a cold-water mass with higher DIN concentration (about 11 μmol/L) formed in benthonic water around 123.2°E. In Changjiang estuary (around 123°E, 32°N), DIN concentration was higher in the 10 m layer; however, the bottom DIN concentration was lower, possibly influenced by mixing of the Taiwan Warm Current and offshore currents.     

Seawater flux through Taiwan strait

After the winter and summer current structures on two or three latitudinal sections in Taiwan Strait were obtained from the measured current data, the seawater fluxs through the sections were calculated. In summer, the currents in the central and northern part of Taiwan Strait normally flow northward at a net flux of 3.32×10⁶m³/s. In winter, the high temperature and salinity Kuroshio and South China Sea water enter Taiwan Strait from the southem section at 1.69×10⁶m³/s and 0.59×10⁶ m³/s respectively, while the East China Sea water enters Taiwan Strait from the northern section at 1.02×10⁶m³/s. About 0.40×10⁶ m³/s of the seawater enters the South China Sea along the coast of Fujian and Guangdong; the other 0.62×10⁶ m³/s of the seawater is mixed with the Kuroshio water and the South China Sea water in the northern sea areas. The net northward flux is 1.74×10⁶m³/s in winter.     

Sediment compaction and pore pressure prediction in deepwater basin of the South China Sea: Estimation from ODP and IODP drilling well data

Overpressure in deepwater basins not only causes serious soft sediment deformation, but also significantly affects the safety of drilling operations. Therefore, prediction of overpressure in sediments has become an important task in deepwater oil exploration and development. In this study, we analyze the drilling data from ODP Leg 184 Sites 1144, 1146, and 1148, and IODP Leg 349 Sites U1431, U1432, U1433, and U1435 to study the sediment compaction and controls in the northern South China Sea. Sedimentation rate, sediment content, distribution area, and buried depth are the factors that influence sediment compaction in the deepwater basin of the South China Sea. Among these factors, the sediment content is the most important. The fitted normal compacted coefficients and mudline porosity for an interval of 50 m shows disciplinary variation versus depth. The pore pressure predicted from different fitted results shows varying overpressure situations. The normal compaction trend from Site 1144 reflects the porosity variation trend in stable deposition basins in the northern South China Sea. The predicted pore pressure shows overpressure at Site 1144, which is attributed to compaction disequilibrium. Nevertheless, the mixed lithology column may influence the predicted over-pressure at Site 1148, which is responsible for the confusing result. Above all, we find that sediment compaction should serve as a proxy for pore pressure in the deepwater basin of the South China Sea.     

On the winter circulation of the northern South China Sea and its relation to the large scale oceanic current

The nonwind-driven mechanism of the winter circulation in the northern South China Sea is discussed. Linked by the Bashi Strait to the Pacific Ocean, the northern South Cnina Sea is treated as a part of the Pacific western boundary where the circulation variation (except the very thin surface layer) is closely related to that of the ocean interior and the effect of local wind might be neglected (at least for some seasons). Based on the assumption that the thick and strong westward current which flows in through the Bashi Strait can effectively prevent water exchange between the northern and southern South China Seas, the model sea only includes the northern part. Barotropic numerical experiments show that part of this westward current is deflected by the continental slope and forms the slope area NE current—the South China Sea Warm Current. Besides, the topographical flow fed by the extension of the western boundary current and the anticyclonic eddy born near the eastern boundary are also fundamental components of the South China Sea Warm Current. The reflection of the incident Rossby waves by the continental slope is found to be of significance in the intensification of the South China Sea Warm Current. Contribution No. 1362 from Institute of Oceanology, Academia     

南海北部鱼类石油烃含量地理差异原因浅析

比较了南海北部海洋鱼类石油烃含量的地理差异,结果表明：被研究的5个海区中,广州湾海洋鱼类的石油烃含量明显高于北部湾（p＜0.05）和红海湾（P＜0．05）,该3个海区和珠江口明显高于台湾浅滩（p＜0.01）,其余的两两之间没有统计学差异（p＞0．05）。利用海洋环境质量调查和监测资料进行分析,说明这种地理分布特征与南海北部近岸海域的石油烃污染有直接关系。     

An analysis of characteristics of variation of the Taiwan Warm Current Deep Water

The Taiwan Warm Current Deep Water (or the East China Sea Upper Layer Water, or the East China Sea Subsurface Water) lying in the deep and bottom layers off the coast of Fujian-Zhejiang is one of the main watermasses in the continental shelf region of the western East China Sea. The hydrographical conditions and the fishery productions in this region are affected remarkably by the decline and growth of the Taiwan Warm Current Deep Water. Although the temperature, salinity and origin of the Taiwan Warm Current Deep Water have been investigated^[3] by oceanographers the world over, there are up to now few papers published on its characteristics of ariations (seasonal and multiyear variations). Understanding of this problem will be helpful to further characterize this watermass. For this reason, in this paper, section 28°N representing the middle Taiwan Warm Current Deep Water and section 30°N representing the northern Taiwan Warm Current Deep Water are taken for examples, and the method of similar coefficient is used for analysis of this problem. Contribution No. 861 from the Institute of Oceanology, Academia Sinica. This paper was published in Chinese inOceanologia et Limnologia, Sinica 14 (4): 357–366.     

Highly nonlinear internal solitary waves over the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea

Large amplitude internal solitary waves (ISWs) often exhibit highly nonlinear effects and may contribute significantly to mixing and energy transporting in the ocean. We observed highly nonlinear ISWs over the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea (19°35′N, 112°E) in May 2005 during the Wenchang Internal Wave Experiment using in-situ time series data from an array of temperature and salinity sensors, and an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). We summarized the characteristics of the ISWs and compared them with those of existing internal wave theories. Particular attention has been paid to characterizing solitons in terms of the relationship between shape and amplitude-width. Comparison between theoretical prediction and observation results shows that the high nonlinearity of these waves is better represented by the second-order extended Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) theory than the first-order KdV model. These results indicate that the northwestern South China Sea (SCS) is rich in highly nonlinear ISWs that are an indispensable part of the energy budget of the internal waves in the northern South China Sea.     

Interpretation of sea surface wind interannual vector EOFs over the China seas

Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Niño events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Niño 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Niño event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Niño occurs in winter. If El Niño happens in summer, the reverse is true.     

Deep-sea geohazards in the South China Sea

Various geological processes and features that might inflict hazards identified in the South China Sea by using new technologies and methods.These features include submarine landslides,pockmark fields,shallow free gas,gas hydrates,mud diapirs and earthquake tsunami,which are widely distributed in the continental slope and reefal islands of the South China Sea.Although the study and assessment of geohazards in the South China Sea came into operation only recently,advances in various aspects are evolving at full speed to comply with National Marine Strategy and‘the Belt and Road’Policy.The characteristics of geohazards in deep-water seafloor of the South China Sea are summarized based on new scientific advances.This progress is aimed to aid ongoing deep-water drilling activities and decrease geological risks in ocean development.     

SEDIMENT DISCHARGE OF THE HUANGHE RIVER AND ITS EFFECT ON SEDIMENTATION OF THE BOHAI SEA AND THE YELLOW SEA

The Huanghe (Yellow) River, with annual sediment discharge about 11 ×108tons, contributes about 17% of the fluvial sediment discharge of world's 21 major rivers to the ocean because its middle reaches flow across the great Loess Plateau of China. Sediment discharge of the Huanghe River has a widespread and profound effect on sedimentation of the sea. The remarkable shift of its outlet in 1128-1855 A.D. to the South Yellow Sea formed a large subaqueous delta and provided the substrate for an extensive submarine ridge field.The shift of its outlet in the modern delta every 10 years is the main reason why with an extremely heavy sediment input and a micro- tidal environment, the Huanghe River has not succeeded in building a birdfoot delta like the Mississippi. The Huanghe River has consistently brought heavy sediment input to sea at least since 0.7 myr.B.P. Paleochannels, paleosols, cheniers and fossils on the sea bottom indicate that the Yellow Sea was exposed during the late Quaternary glacial low-sea l     

MONITORING THE DIFFUSION OF SUSPENDED SEDIMENTS AND STABILITY OF TIDAL RADIAL SAND RIDGES AREA USING MULTI-SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING DATA

Nine Landsat TM tapes and images and MSS images, 10 NOAA tapes and images and 1 SAR image from 1973 to 1997 were used to analyse the diffusion of suspended sediments and the change of tidal radial sand ridges in the northern part of the Changjiang River delta, the South Yellow Sea. The results showed that the diffusion of suspended sediments was controlled by the tide, net current, and submarine topography in this area. The distribution of suspended sediments had close relationship with thesubmarine topography. The old Huanghe River delta and the Changjiang River comprise the main sediment supply for the formation of radial sand ridges, whose evolution can be divided into three stages since the Huangbe River changed its course and flowed northward into the Bohai Sea.     

Eddies in the northwest subtropical pacific and their possible effects on the South China Sea

Based on an analysis of drifter data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment during 1979-1998, the sizes of the eddies in the North subtropical Pacific are determined from the radii of curvature of the drifter paths calculated by using a non-linear curve fitting method. To support the drifter data results, Sea Surface Height from the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS2 satellite data are analyzed in connection with the drifter paths. It is found that the eddies in the North Pacific （18^＊- 23^＊N and 125^＊-150^＊E） move westward at an average speed of approximately 0.098 ms^-1 and their average radius is 176 km, with radii ranging from 98 km to 298 km. During the nineteen-year period, only 4 out of approximately 200 drifters （2%） actually entered the South China Sea from the area adjacent to the Luzon Strait （18^＊-22^＊N and 121^＊-125^＊E） in the winter. It is also found that eddies from the interior of the North Pacific are unlikely to enter the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF FINE-GRAINED TURBIDITE DEPOSITS FROM THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SEDIMENT CORES

Two depositional processes controlled the muddy sediments in the South China Sea Basin. Bathyal sediments depositional rate was 7.66 cm/la in the northern continental slope of the Basin where turbidity current was almost nonexistent. In the northern margin of the Basin, abyssal sediment depositional rate was 5.05cm/ka and turbidity current occurrence averaged 0.22 per 1000 years. Turbidite was found in the middle of the Basin. Over half of the muddy sediments in the deep sea basin were deposited by turbidity currents, and had typically graded bedding, and contents of organic matter, calcareous material and micropaleontologic species inconsistent with the environment.     

Rainfall and inflow effects on soil erosion for hillslopes dominated by sheet erosion or rill erosion in the Chinese Mollisol region

Erosion agents and patterns profoundly affect hillslope soil loss characteristics. However, few attempts have been made to analyze the effects of rainfall and inflow on soil erosion for hillslopes dominated by sheet erosion or rill erosion in the Chinese Mollisol region. The objective of this study was to discuss the erosive agent(rainfall or inflow), hillslope erosion pattern(sheet erosion or rill erosion) and slope gradient effects on runoff and soil losses. Two soil pans(2.0 m long, 0.5 m wide and 0.5 m deep) with 5° and 10° slopes were subjected to rainfall(0 and 70 mm h–1) and inflow(0 and 70 mm h–1) experiments. Three experimental combinations of rainfall intensity(RI) and inflow rate(IR) were tested using the same water supply of 70 mm by controllingthe run time. A flat soil surface and a soil bed with a straight initial rill were prepared manually, and represented hillslopes dominated by sheet erosion and rill erosion, respectively. The results showed that soil losses had greater differences among treatments than total runoff. Soil losses decreased in the order of RI70+IR70 RI70+IR0 RI0+IR70. Additionally, soil losses for hillslopes dominated by rill erosion were 1.7-2.2 times greater at 5° and 2.5-6.9 times greater at 10° than those for hillslopes dominated by sheet erosion. The loss of 0.25 mm soil particles and aggregates varying from 47.72%-99.60% of the total soil loss played a dominant role in the sediment. Compared with sheet erosion hillslopes, rill erosion hillslopes selectively transported more microaggregates under a relatively stable rill development stage, but rills transported increasinglymore macroaggregates under an active rill development stage. In conclusion, eliminating raindrop impact on relatively gentle hillslopes and preventing rill development on relatively steep hillslopes would be useful measures to decrease soil erosion and soil degradation in the Mollisol region of northeastern China.     

Reconstruction of vertical thermal structure from several subsurface temperatures in the China Seas and adjacent waters

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used in this study to generate main eigenvector fields of historical temperature for the China Seas (here referring to Chinese marine territories) and adjacent waters from 1930 to 2002 (510 143 profiles). A good temperature profile is reconstructed based on several subsurface in situ temperature observations and the thermocline was estimated using the model. The results show that: 1) For the study area, the former four principal components can explain 95% of the overall variance, and the vertical distribution of temperature is most stable using the in situ temperature observations near the surface. 2) The model verifications based on the observed CTD data from the East China Sea (ECS), South China Sea (SCS) and the areas around Taiwan Island show that the reconstructed profiles have high correlation with the observed ones with the confidence level >95%, especially to describe the characteristics of the thermocline well. The average errors between the reconstructed and observed profiles in these three areas are 0.69°C, 0.52°C and 1.18°C respectively. It also shows the model RMS error is less than or close to the climatological error. The statistical model can be used to well estimate the temperature profile vertical structure. 3) Comparing the thermocline characteristics between the reconstructed and observed profiles, the results in the ECS show that the average absolute errors are 1.5m, 1.4 m and 0.17°C/m, and the average relative errors are 24.7%, 8.9% and 22.6% for the upper, lower thermocline boundaries and the gradient, respectively. Although the relative errors are obvious, the absolute error is small. In the SCS, the average absolute errors are 4.1 m, 27.7 m and 0.007°C/m, and the average relative errors are 16.1%, 16.8% and 9.5% for the upper, lower thermocline boundaries and the gradient, respectively. The average relative errors are all <20%. Although the average absolute error of the lower thermocline boundary is considerable, but contrast to the spatial scale of average depth of the lower thermocline boundary (165 m), the average relative error is small (16.8%). Therefore the model can be used to well estimate the thermocline. Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX-3W-222; KZCX2-YW-Q11-02) and National Basic Research Program of China (No.2007CB411802; 2006CB403601)