“五江一河”的洪水特征及其对跨流域调水量的制约——三评“红旗河工程”构想

在上文阐明"五江一河"径流量的年际变化及各节点具体径流量要比"红旗河工程"构想少得多的基础上,本文依据前人资料和成果,进一步阐述这些河流的径流量,在年内分配的不均匀性与洪水特征,及其对跨流域调水量的制约作用。研究表明:"五江一河"在11月到翌年4月,径流量只占全年总径流量的12.09%~21.84%,月均只有2.01%~3.64%,为冬、春季枯水期。其径流量只比拟调水比例20%或21%的月均值1.67%或1.75%略多。如此之少的水量,只能维系流域内的生态、生产及生活用水,而不能跨流域调水。何况"红旗河"中、下游在冬季结冰期也难以进行调水。每年6月份到9月份的4个月,"五江一河"径流量占全年径流量的53.3%~88.3%,甚至8月份的月径流量可达全年总径流量的17.8%~29.6%,属于汛期。根据径流量的实际数据,一年当中可供调水时间段只有丰水与平水期的6个月或汛期的3~4个月,要比"红旗河工程"构想的全年调水的时间大大缩短。在可资跨流域调水的每年5—10月份的时间窗口中,如果按原构想的月均调水流量占年径流量的比例1.67%(按20%计)或1.75%(按21%计)进行调水,则"五江一河"的年调水总量仅为153.25×10^8m^3(按20%计)或161.50×10^8m^3(按21%计)。仅为原构想调水量600亿m^3的1/4,充其量不足27%。在丰水与平水期的6个月中实现年径流量20%或21%的年调水比例,就意味将月调水比例从占年径流量的1.67%或1.75%增加为3.33%或3.50%。这样,"五江一河"的年调水总量可达到306.50×10^8m^3或323.00×10^8 m^3。此调水方案,导致调水河道截面积或工程规模增加一倍,但调水量也只有原构想的大约一半或至多54%。如果将调水目标强行设定为600亿m^3,那么"五江一河"的调水比例将提高到占年径流量的27.1%(南水北调西线工程开展前),或除金沙江和雅砻江之外的其它调水河流的39.0%(南水北调西线工程完成后),"红旗河"的建设规模势必大大增加,这也意味着工程难度大大增加,意味着工程建设与运行成本大大增加,意味着洪水、地震与地质灾害的危险性大大增加。"五江一河"实际可调水量比"红旗河"构想严重减少,使人不禁会对"红旗河"工程立论的科学基础和科学依据提出质疑。     

Developing the water commons? The (post)political condition and the politics of “shared giving” in Montana

This paper chronicles the rhetorical mechanisms that fostered a potentially radical re-thinking of water rights and property in a most unlikely place: the libertarian Western U.S., and mobilized by the least likely of actors: state officials. There is growing interest, in geography and beyond, in the question of what constitutes the “properly political” in contexts where dissent is actively forestalled by those with power. Much has been written about the “properly political” as the disruption of the established order by previously excluded actors. Comparatively less research, however, has focused on the “conditions of possibility” that might exist within ostensibly “post-political” governing arenas. This paper deepens our understanding of this by examining a participatory water planning group in Montana, which was convened by the state to develop recommendations for a new state water plan. The group was inspired by an alternative drought-management model called “shared giving.” Imbued with principles of “collectivism” and “equality,” the model was strategically (and necessarily) promoted through the discursive shell of the existing prior appropriation system. This was accomplished not by an oppositional force of marginalized actors, but state officials that are rarely, if ever, deemed “disruptive,” and through tactics that are best characterized as post-political. We interpret this case as reflecting a hybrid governing assemblage that highlights both post-political closure and transformative possibilities simultaneously, and conclude by suggesting that the post-political concept, itself, risks foreclosing on conditions whereby fruitful outcomes might become possible from within established governing frameworks otherwise written-off as post-political.     

Power and privilege in alternative civic practices: Examining imaginaries of change and embedded rationalities in community economies

Community economies can be considered as examples of the diverse economies growing outside common capitalist logics of private accumulation and profit, seeking to bypass or reconfigure dominant global trends of societal and economic organization. Yet, these communities seem to fit quite well under a neoliberal program in which responsibilities are shifting downwards, favoring multi-level governance over State intervention and accountability. This binary character makes imperative an open and critical discussion on the development of community initiatives, including on the motivations and visions of citizens practicing alternative ethical consumption. This article explores the neoliberal rationalities embraced by community members within the imaginaries of change they frame and examines how these rationalities contribute to (re)producing neoliberal conditions and forms of governance. Our analysis builds on semi-structured interviews conducted among the members of 11 initiatives in 5 EU countries and on participant observation. We argue here that communities articulate an “alternative imaginary” of change that appears imprinted by core neoliberal rationalities around questions of individual responsibility, the role of the State, and civic participation and equity. It is an imaginary related to the construction of CBEs to by-pass existing socio-political and economic configurations. This imaginary more often than not responds to neoliberal promises of individual freedom and autonomy and seems to undermine CBEs' more radical possibilities at the same time obscuring more diverse voices of transformation.     

Hybrid drinking water governance: Community participation and ongoing neoliberal reforms in rural Rajasthan,India

This paper examines a Rajasthan (India) drinking water supply project that relied on hybrid governance reforms in its original design. Decentralization and marketization, combined with a participatory approach, were intended to facilitate an empowering shift in state-citizen relationships. Paying citizens were expected to make quantity and quality demands of the state as consumers, not welfare beneficiaries. Research on the project 3 years after its completion revealed that although payment for water and community participation were intended to compel the state to provide clean water, they failed in this regard. The problem of an unreliable state supply was solved through small scale privatization, a decision ‘independently’ reached at the local scale, but one that served to further undermine the state’s ability to provide clean water.In this paper, we trace the shifts in regulation that evolved in the post-project phase at both the state and village scale that resulted in the delivery of contaminated water. Ethnographic research indicates that community participation was introduced as a set of institutions that would govern how villagers interacted with the state and its water supply, but villagers altered community participation by introducing reforms in water governance as a way of coping with an unresponsive state and increased work burden. Community participation evolved in contradictory ways as the impacts of neoliberal environmental governance were felt. The paper contributes to understandings of neoliberalization processes’ local impacts by analyzing their ongoing hybridization at multiple scales. It further calls into question foundational notions that community participation in resource governance is the appropriate solution to drinking water supply.     

State,capital and spaceships: A terrestrial geography of space tourism

Over the past decade, there has been a significant structural and geographical change in space travel. Following policy, budgetary and regulatory changes in the United States, space travel may now be conducted by private companies. This privatization has also led to some geographical competition and shifts between states within the US. In this paper, I respond to MacDonald’s (2007) call for more critical geographies of outer space activity. Building from his suggestion that we look more closely at the ways in which outer space activity is constituted by “numerous familiar operations” with respect to the practices of international relations and war and to the “basic infrastructural maintenance of the state and the lives of its citizenry”, this paper explores why the US Government has allowed for private space travel and why this privatization drove some states in the US to invest heavily in such a nascent industry sector. It argues that federal and state governments both saw private space travel as a means to fulfill their “basic infrastructural maintenance” with regard to economic expansion, development and competitiveness. The paper analyses these processes through the development of space tourism. In doing so, it provides more detail and geographical context to Dickens and Ormrod’s (2007) overview of the connections between outer space and the circuits of capital. It also demonstrates the many familiar political-economic processes involved in the privatization of space travel and, as such, the possibilities for further critical geographies of space activity.     

地球圈层相互作用中的深海过程和深海记录（II）：气候变化的热带驱动与碳循环

地球轨道变化驱动冰期旋回的理论是气候演变研究在20世纪的最大突破。然而以65°N太阳辐射量为准的传统轨道理论，忽视了低纬区和碳循环的作用。本项目以“西太平洋暖池”为重点，通过地质资料和气候数值模拟的结合，揭示了“西太平洋暖池”和东亚季风发育的阶段性，发现了暖池海区冰消期表层水升温超前于北半球冰盖的融化。在南沙海区发现了碳同位素有40~50万年长周期，经过全球对比和对意大利上新世地层的实测与分析，证明这是世界大洋碳储库对于地球运行轨道偏心率长周期的响应，并推测是通过浮游植物群改变有机碳在海洋碳沉积中的比例所致。研究表明热带驱动和碳循环在气候演变中重要性，其正确认识是预测气候长期演变趋势的前提。是“深海973”项目总结报道之后的续篇，对上述成果作专题讨论。     

Quantitative Geoscience and Geological Big Data Development: A Review

After long-term development, mathematical geology has today become an independent discipline. Big Data science, which has become a new scientific paradigm in the 21 st century, gives rise to the geological Big Data, i.e. mathematical geology and quantitative geoscience. Thanks to a robust macro strategy for big data, China’s quantitative geoscience and geological big data’s rapid development meets present requirements and has kept up with international levels. This paper presents China’s decade-long achievements in quantitative prediction and assessment of mineral resources, geoscience information and software systems, geological information platform development, etc., with an emphasis on application of geological big data in informatics, quantitative mineral prediction, geological environment and disaster management, digital land survey, digital city, etc. Looking ahead, mathematical geology is moving towards "Digital Geology", "Digital Land" and "Geological Cloud", eventually realizing China’s grand "Digital China" blueprint, and these valuable results will be showcased on the international academic arena.     

Water Security and the Countermeasures in South Asia Based on the “Belt and Road” Initiative

South Asia is the subregion of Asia with the most neighbors of China. Although the high mountains in the Great Himalayas spatially separate South Asia from East Asia along the border of China’s autonomous region of Tibet, the geographical items such as mountains and rivers link the countries in South Asia with China, resulting in a special and complex geopolitical environment and relationship. In this geopolitical relationship, the transboundary rivers are becoming a key issue of this region in an era of increasing water stress. Depleted and degraded transboundary water supplies have the potential to cause social unrest and spark conflict within and between countries in South Asia, and complicate the geopolitical relationship among them. In addition, the increasing impacts from climate change and human activities will definitely bring many transboundary eco-environmental issues in this region, projecting a big challenge to regional stability and development. The key issues related to the water resources supplement and exploration require the transboundary rivers to be a positive role in regional water resources utility and exploration, and the result will definitely affect regional relationship and water security. How to handle these issues and challenges will be a question for the countries in this region with a long time. Currently, the “Belt and Road” Initiative represents an opportunity to build a shared vision for common prosperity through regional cooperation and is a way to inject new positive energy into world peace and development. In the light of this, the countries with transboundary rivers in South Asia must come together to construct a cooperative mechanism of water security, and adopt a win-win cooperation for the use of transboundary rivers under the principles of “equal”, “equitable” and “reasonable”.     

Principles of major classification of natural waters

The article presents some interesting, highly controversial, but well documented, ideas on the genesis of natural waters and their subsequent evolution. “Endothegenic” is embraced as a better name for what has long been called “juvenile” water. “Biogenic” waters include all other waters of various origins, except “cosmic” waters which are extra-global. Subclasses of water should be defined on basis of principal anion(s) and on physical criteria such as temperature or isotopic composition. — B.N. Cooper.     

A failed green future: Navajo Green Jobs and energy “transition” in the Navajo Nation

This article considers the Navajo Green Jobs effort of 2009, an attempt to “transition” energy production from coal to wind and solar for the largest tribe in the United States, the Navajo Nation. Through ethnographic “revisits,” in 2008 and 2013, I argue that Navajo Green Jobs contained two problematic hybrid neoliberal assumptions about governance and development: (1) it decentered governing authority from the tribe to “the community” while undermining the legitimacy of the tribal government, and (2) it promoted private entrepreneurship over public investment as the vehicle for energy transition. Ultimately, the Navajo Nation rejected Navajo Green Jobs and re-appropriated its temporal language in order to justify a reinvestment in coal in the form of a new energy company, NTEC. This article concludes that consideration of the spatial and social embedded nature of energy production is vital for understanding energy transitions today.     

北方岩溶区水文地质环境地质调查进展——以北京西山岩溶区为例

该文是在地质调查项目“北方岩溶水文地质环境地质调查示范”成果基础上归纳编写的。工作区选择北京西山玉泉山泉域、黑龙关泉域和鱼谷洞泉域。调查中采用了地面调查、遥感解译、地球物理勘探、水文地质钻探、示踪试验、水均衡站观测、水化学以及δD、δ¹⁸O、C、δ³⁴S、Sr同位素方法手段,获取了大量第一手资料,通过对包括前人资料的综合研究,取得以下主要进展: ①查明了该区岩溶水文地质条件和环境问题,将工作区划分为2个含水岩组、3个岩溶水系统和5个子系统; ②通过对黑龙关泉域均衡观测,获得了寒武—奥陶系和蓟县系碳酸盐岩裸露区降水入渗系数,并采用最新资料评价了天然资源量和可开采资源量; ③针对突出的岩溶水环境问题(含潜在问题),从政策、技术和工程3方面提出了岩溶水保护和环境问题治理的建议。     

Modelling water-table depth in a primary aquifer to identify potential wetland hydrogeomorphic settings on the northern Maputaland Coastal Plain,KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

The primary aquifer on the Maputaland Coastal Plain in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, is the principal source of water for rivers, lakes and most of the wetlands in dry periods, and is recharged by these systems in wet periods. Modelling hydrologic conditions that control regional water-table depth can provide insight into the spatial patterns of wetland occurrence and of the persistence of wet conditions that control their character. This project used a groundwater model (MODFLOW) to simulate 10-year water-table fluctuations on the Maputaland Coastal Plain from January 2000 to December 2010, to contrast the conditions between wet and dry years. Remote sensing imagery was used to map “permanent” and “temporary” wetlands in dry and wet years to evaluate the effectiveness of identifying the suitable conditions for their formation using numerical modelling techniques. The results confirm that topography plays an important role on a sub-regional and local level to support wetland formation. The wetlands’ extent and distribution are directly associated with the spatial and temporal variations of the water table in relation to the topographical profile. Groundwater discharge zones in the lowland (1–50 masl) areas support more permanent wetlands with dominantly peat or high organic soil substrates, including swamp forest and most of the permanent open water areas. Most temporary wetlands associated with low-percentage clay occurrence are through-flow low-lying interdune systems characterised by regional fluctuation of the water table, while other temporary wetlands are perched or partially perched. The latter requires a more sophisticated saturated-unsaturated modelling approach.     

Communities as the agents of commodification: The Kumbo Water Authority in Northwest Cameroon

In 1991 the people of the town of Kumbo in Northwest Cameroon expelled the national water corporation from town by force. They claimed to be retrieving a network that the community rightfully owned and they began to run the system along community lines. The paper tells the story of that water supply twice. First it reproduces the popular accounts that circulated in the 1990s that emphasize the role played by the community in the development and operation of the water supply and portray recent events as a triumph of community management. Then it retells the story using archive evidence that puts a quite different light on some of the events. It is argued that the emphasis on community management has a tendency to obscure other important aspects of the story, for example its political context and consequences. It is suggested that the widespread admiration for any initiative that is community based often results in an uncritical analysis of this form of development project. In this case the commodification of water accelerates after the community has wrested control of this public service from the state.     

Morphometric and hypsometric analysis in the Tierra Nueva Basin,San Luis Potosí, México

In areas with long periods of drought, it is essential to implement strategies to manage the available water resource. Tierra Nueva Basin is affected by this situation, consequently the farm production and livestock holdings are affected and the people don’t have access to enough water. In this paper, we propose an integrative methodology based on mathematical tools such as hypsometric and morphometric analysis applying geographic information systems. The proposal is strengthened with the aggregation of geological-structural, morphometrical, hypsometrical parameters and climatological information through a precipitation analysis provided by the National Water Commission from 1962 to 2010. According to the available data and the results obtained through the implemented proposal, an acceptable level of reliability is inferred allowing to determine areas structurally suitable for the use of surface water and its uptake. The methodology that we propose facilitates and simplifies the processes of searching and exploring locations suitable for surface water capture in arid and semi-arid zones, identifying in a qualitative and quantitative manner the optimal zone. For the case study, test-and-validation of the methodology the Tierra Nueva Basin in San Luis Potosí, México was selected. Tierra Nueva is a semi-arid site where “La Muñeca” dam is located. The results obtained in this work confirm the location of the “La Muñeca” dam as one of the most suitable areas for water collection. The methodology that we propose is a useful tool for the studies of water capturing purposes in arid and semi-arid zones.     

Annual landslide risk and effectiveness of risk reduction measures in Shihmen watershed,Taiwan

Landslide risk analysis procedures in this study could evaluate annual landslide risk, and assess the effectiveness of measures. Risk analysis encompassing landslide hazard, vulnerability, and resilience capacity was used to evaluate annual landslide risk. First, landslide spatial, temporal, and area probabilities were joined to estimate annual probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, different elements were assigned corresponding values and vulnerabilities to calculate the expected property and life losses. Third, the resilience capacities of communities were calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of items, including “the participation experience of disaster prevention drill,” “real-time monitoring mechanism of community,” “autonomous monitoring of residents,” and “disaster prevention volunteer.” Finally, the annual landslide probabilities, expected losses, and resilience capacities were combined to evaluate annual landslide risk in Shihmen watershed. In addition, annual risks before and after the implementation of measures were compared to determine the benefits of measures, and subsequently benefit–cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit–cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit–cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating the effectiveness of measures was greater than the investment cost. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed changes in vulnerabilities and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit–cost ratio. However, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.     

淮南采煤沉陷区积水来源的氢氧稳定同位素证据

淮南是我国东部重要的能源基地,由于长期地下采煤,地表形成大面积的采煤沉陷区并积水,造成严重地质灾害。针对于此,部分学者提出利用采煤沉陷区建立"平原水库"解决周边地区干旱年份农田缺水问题的设想。然而,一方面,由于煤层上覆几百米厚的新生代沉积,采煤塌陷形成的沉陷裂隙是否沟通了不同含水层之间的水力联系,并因此改变了这个地区的地下水系统,成为区域水资源评价需要了解的一个重要科学问题;另一方面,建立"平原水库"需要有稳定的补给水源,采煤形成的沉陷裂隙如果沟通了地下不同深度含水层的水力联系,是否使地下水成为塌陷区除降雨外的重要补给来源,这就成为评价"平原水库"水资源潜力的重要参考依据。氢氧稳定同位素是示踪天然水体水来源的重要手段,笔者在淮南矿区采集了旱季和雨季的浅层地下水、河水、雨水、沉陷区的积水等不同水体的水样23件,分析了其氢氧稳定同位素组成并与深层地下水进行对比。结果表明:雨季和旱季,该地区采煤沉陷区积水的氢氧稳定同位素组成都非常接近大气降水的氢氧稳定同位素组成,而与深层地下水的氢氧稳定同位素组成相差较大,说明采煤沉陷区的积水来源主要是大气降水补给。采煤沉陷区的沉陷裂隙贯穿了整个新生代地层,使地表水发生下渗与在深部与深层地下水发生不同程度的混合,而深层地下水尚不是"平原水库"的稳定补给源。     

Resilience of small- and medium-sized enterprises as a correlation to community impact: an agent-based modeling approach

Access to government funding is one of the most effective ways to enhance the resilience for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME) community after a disaster. Along these lines, a major focus of SME resiliency research has been on examining factors needed to keep an SME open after a disaster. This makes sense as SMEs are critical to community recovery. It seems logical that the severity of a disaster would indicate the impact to a community. Using a systems thinking methodology, we developed a hypothesis that this correlation of severity to impact breaks down over time, causing the community to quickly spiral into trouble. This paper presents an agent-based model to test our hypothesis. The results indicate the impact to a community becomes much more extreme after a threshold or “tipping point” is crossed.     

新疆长距离引水工程地质勘察与试验

新疆长距离引水工程通过区的各种地质现象极为丰富和复杂,除常规的地质问题以外,各地段的工程地质现象和地质体又有其独特的性质和特征,对不同地区的地质体、地质现象进行有针对性的、深入细致的研究,以满足工程建设的需要。乌伦古河南岸引水工程中遇到了常规的地质问题以外,还有软岩隧洞、“500”水库大坝下的软基和沙漠风积沙等各种复杂工程地质问题和不良地质体、地质现象,经过仔细地工程地质勘测工作,该庞大的引水工程体系目前已建成并投入正常运行,但仍有许多工程地质问题如盐胀、冻胀等,在今后的工程运行实践中有待于进一步的证实和探讨。     

复合含油气系统的提出及其在叠合盆地油气资源预测中的作用

针对中国叠合盆地油气流动特征以及成藏规律,提出了复合含油气系统的概念。基于叠合盆地演化特征和油气地质特点分析,将复合含油气系统分为继承型、延变型与改造型三种基本类型。由于各含油气系统共享要素的不同,构成了“共盖复合”、“贯通复合”、“叠置复合”与“交叉复合”等多种复合方式;复合含油气系统的边界即是多个油气系统复合后的最大外边界。对复合含油气系统研究与评价,倡导以过程重建为主导的“顺藤摸瓜”的研究思路,并相应提出了“六定”的评价流程,对叠合盆地油气资源潜力评价与分布预测具有重要作用。