A Temporal Variant‐Invariant Validation Approach for Agent‐based Models of Landscape Dynamics

Agent‐based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real‐world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent‐based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant‐invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent‐based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland‐urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest.     

A Patch‐based Cellular Automaton for Simulating Land‐use Changes at Fine Spatial Resolution

While cellular automata have become popular tools for modeling land‐use changes, there is a lack of studies reporting their application at very fine spatial resolutions (e.g. 5 m resolution). Traditional cell‐based CA do not generate reliable results at such resolutions because single cells might only represent components of land‐use entities (i.e. houses or parks in urban residential areas), while recently proposed entity‐based CA models usually ignore the internal heterogeneity of the entities. This article describes a patch‐based CA model designed to deal with this problem by integrating cell and object concepts. A patch is defined as a collection of adjacent cells that might have different attributes, but that represent a single land‐use entity. In this model, a transition probability map was calculated at each cell location for each land‐use transition using a weight of evidence method; then, land‐use changes were simulated by employing a patch‐based procedure based on the probability maps. This CA model, along with a traditional cell‐based model were tested in the eastern part of the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada, an area that is under considerable pressure for land development due to its proximity to the fast growing city of Calgary. The simulation results for the two models were compared to historical data using visual comparison, K_simulation indices, and landscape metrics. The results reveal that the patch‐based CA model generates more compact and realistic land‐use patterns than the traditional cell‐based CA. The K_simulation values indicate that the land‐use maps obtained with the patch‐based CA are in higher agreement with the historical data than those created by the cell‐based model, particularly regarding the location of change. The landscape metrics reveal that the patch‐based model is able to adequately capture the land‐use dynamics as observed in the historical data, while the cell‐based CA is not able to provide a similar interpretation. The patch‐based approach proposed in this study appears to be a simple and valuable solution to take into account the internal heterogeneity of land‐use classes at fine spatial resolutions and simulate their transitions over time.     

土地利用变化模拟模型及应用研究进展

元胞自动机CA(Cellular Automata)和多智能体ABM(Agent-Based Model)模型是土地利用格局和演化模拟的主流方法,两者在模拟自然因素影响和人文驱动机制方面具有突出优势,为LUCC研究提供了重要的工具。当前,ABM无论在模型构建还是应用研究方面,CA和ABM均取得了显著进展。论文从数据基础、模拟尺度、CA转换规则挖掘、ABM行为规则定义、CA和ABM的耦合4个方面梳理土地利用模拟模型和方法的研究进展。并总结这些模型在虚拟城市模拟与理论验证、真实城市模拟与规划预测以及多类用地模拟与辅助决策等方面的应用。最后,总结土地利用模拟模型在精细模拟和全球变化研究方面存在的局限性,认为未来发展将主要集中于解决从2维模型向3维模型发展、大数据与规则精细挖掘以及大尺度模拟与知识迁移等问题。     

A multi‐label cellular automata model for land change simulation

The use of cellular automata (CA) has for some time been considered among the most appropriate approaches for modeling land‐use changes. Each cell in a traditional CA model has a state that evolves according to transition rules, taking into consideration its own and its neighbors’ states and characteristics. Here, we present a multi‐label CA model in which a cell may simultaneously have more than one state. The model uses a multi‐label learning method—a multi‐label support vector machine, Rank‐SVM—to define the transition rules. The model was used with a multi‐label land‐use dataset for Luxembourg, built from vector‐based land‐use data using a method presented here. The proposed multi‐label CA model showed promising performance in terms of its ability to capture and model the details and complexities of changes in land‐use patterns. Applied to historical land use data, the proposed model estimated the land use change with an accuracy of 87.2% exact matching and 98.84% when including cells with a misclassification of a single label, which is comparably better than a classical multi‐class model that achieved 83.6%. The multi‐label cellular automata outperformed a model combining CA and artificial neural networks. All model goodness‐of‐fit comparisons were quantified using various performance metrics for predictive models.     

Similarity Weighted Instance‐based Learning for the Generation of Transition Potentials in Land Use Change Modeling

Land use change models are increasingly being used to evaluate the effect of land change on climate and biodiversity and to generate scenarios of deforestation. Although many methods are available to model land transition potentials, they are usually not user‐friendly and require the specification of many parameters, making the task difficult for decision makers not familiar with the tools, as well as making the process difficult to interpret. In this article we propose a simple method for modeling transition potentials. SimWeight is an instance‐based learning algorithm based on the logic of the K‐Nearest Neighbor algorithm. The method identifies the relevance of each driver variable and predicts the transition potential of locations given known instances of change. A case study was used to demonstrate and validate the method. Comparison of results with the Multi‐Layer Perceptron neural network (MLP) suggests that SimWeight performs similarly in its capacity to predict transition potentials, without the need for complex parameters. Another advantage of SimWeight is that it is amenable to parallelization for deployment on a cloud computing platform.     

High‐resolution national land use scenarios under a shrinking population in Japan

In sharp contrast with the global trend in population growth, certain developed countries are expected to experience rapid national population declines. Considering future land use scenarios that include depopulation is necessary to evaluate changes in ecosystem services that affect human well‐being and to facilitate comprehensive strategies for balancing rural and urban development. In this study, we applied a population‐projection‐assimilated predictive land use modeling (PPAP‐LM) approach, in which a spatially explicit population projection was incorporated as a predictor in a land use model. To analyze the effects of future population distributions on land use, we developed models for five land use types and generated projections for two scenarios (centralization and decentralization) under a shrinking population in Japan during 2015–2050. Our results suggested that population centralization promotes the compaction of built‐up areas and the expansion of forest and wastelands, while population decentralization contributes to the maintenance of a mixture of forest and cultivated land.     

Small‐area patch‐merging method accounting for both local constraints and the overall area balance

Small‐area patch merging is a common operation in land use data generalization. However, existing research on small‐area patch merging has mainly focused on local compatibility measures, which often lead to area imbalances among land use types from a global perspective. To address the shortcomings of previous studies by resolving local and global concerns simultaneously, this article proposes a merging method that considers both local constraints and the overall area balance. First, a local optimization model that considers three constraints—namely, the areas of neighboring patches, the lengths of shared arcs, and semantic similarity—is established. The areas of small patches are first pre‐allocated. Subsequently, in accordance with an area change threshold for individual land use types, land use types with area changes that exceed this threshold are identified. The patches corresponding to these land use types are subjected to iterative adjustments while considering the overall area balance. Based on their area splitting abilities, the split lines for small‐area patches are determined, and small‐area patches are merged. Finally, actual data from Guangdong Province are used for validation. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is capable of preserving the local compatibility of patches while balancing the overall area associated with each land use type.     

Simulating urban growth in a megalopolitan area using a patch‐based cellular automata

Although traditional cellular automata (CA)‐based models can effectively simulate urban land‐use changes, they typically ignore the spatial evolution of urban patches, due to their use of cell‐based simulation strategies. This research proposes a new patch‐based CA model to incorporate a spatial constraint based on the growth patterns of urban patches into the conventional CA model for reducing the uncertainty of the distribution of simulated new urban patches. In this model, the growth pattern of urban patches is first estimated using a developed indicator that is based on the local variations in existing urban patches. The urban growth is then simulated by integrating the estimated growth pattern and land suitability using a pattern‐calibrated method. In this method, the pattern of new urban patches is gradually calibrated toward the dominant growth pattern through the steps of the CA model. The proposed model is applied to simulate urban growth in the Tehran megalopolitan area during 2000–2006–2012. The results from this model were compared with two common models: cell‐based CA and logistic‐patch CA. The proposed model yields a degree of patch‐level agreement that is 23.4 and 7.5% higher than those of these pre‐existing models, respectively. This reveals that the patch‐based CA model simulates actual development patterns much better than the two other models.     

Multi‐Scale Qualitative Location: A Topology‐Based Model

Qualitative locations describe spatial objects by relating the spatial objects to a frame of reference (e.g. a regional partition in this study) with qualitative relations. Existing models only formalize spatial objects, frames of reference, and their relations at one scale, thus limiting their applicability in representing location changes of spatial objects across scales. A topology‐based, multi‐scale qualitative location model is proposed to represent the associations of multiple representations of the same objects with respect to the frames of reference at different levels. Multi‐scale regional partitions are first presented to be the frames of reference at multiple levels of scale. Multi‐scale locations are then formalized to relate multiple representations of the same objects to the multiple frames of reference by topological relations. Since spatial objects, frames of reference, and topological relations in qualitative locations are scale dependent, scale transformation approaches are presented to derive possible coarse locations from detailed locations by incorporating polygon merging, polygon‐to‐line and polygon‐to‐point operators.     

Evaluation of Land Suitability for Urban Land‐Use Planning: Case Study Dhaka City

The aim of this research is evaluation of land suitability for urban land‐use planning. Four factors and fourteen criteria were selected for suitability analysis and land‐use planning. Factors and criteria were defined based on literature survey, experts’ opinions, local contexts and availability of data. GIS‐based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used as a Multi‐criteria Decision Making model. The study was conducted on a selected area of Dhaka city, which is one of the fastest growing mega‐cities of the world. The research result shows that highly suitable area (13%) should be used for urban residential zone; moderately suitable area (35%) should be designated as mixed use zone; low suitable area (42%) should be reserved for agricultural use and open spaces; and not suitable area (10%) should be protected from any types of activities except agriculture. The research approached an urban land‐use planning at a regional scale.     

Incorporating sprawl and adjacency measures in land‐use forecasting model: A case study of Collin County,TX

Sprawl measures have largely been neglected in land‐use forecasting models. The current approach for land‐use allocation using optimization mostly utilizes objective functions and constraints that are non‐spatial in nature. Application of spatial constraints could take care of the contiguity and compactness of land uses and can be utilized to address urban sprawl. Because a land‐use model is used as an input to transportation modeling, a better spatial allocation strategy for more compact land‐use projections will promote better transportation planning and sustainable development. This study formulates a scenario‐based approach to normative modeling of urban sprawl. In doing so, it seeks to improve the land‐use projections by employing a spatial optimization model with contiguity and compactness consideration. This study incorporates urban sprawl measures based on smart growth principles together with a mixed‐use factor, and adjacency consideration of nearby land uses. The objective function used in the study maximizes net suitability based on imposed constraints. These constraints are based on smart growth principles that enhance walkability in neighborhoods, promote better health for residents, and encourage mixed‐use development. The formulated model has been applied to Collin County, TX, a fast‐developing suburban county located to the north of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex. The suitability of land cells indicates the probability of conversion, which is calculated using spatial discrete choice analysis with Moran eigenvector spatial filtering for vacant cells at a resolution of 150 × 150 m employing factors of the built environment, and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. This study demonstrates how spatial proximity between land uses, which has been ignored to date, can be used to control sprawl, resulting in better mixing of different land uses based on constraints imposed in a spatial optimization problem.     

Approaches for Linking People,Place, and Environment for Human Dimensions Research

Abstract

Much of the human dimensions of environmental change research emphasize the mapping and modeling of land use and land cover patterns over space and time, and the linkages between people, place, and environment as proximate and distal forces of landscape dynamics. Spatial digital technologies, framed within a GIScience (GISc) context, figure prominently in the characterization of land use and land cover through remote sensing technologies, and in the assessment of social and demographic factors and local and regional site and situation considerations achieved through global positioning systems, data visualizations, and spatial and statistical analyses. Here, we describe some fundamental approaches for linking data across thematic domains, essential for the study of human‐environment interactions. The goal is to generate compatible data sets that extend across social, biophysical, and geographical domains so that the causes and consequences of land use and land cover dynamics might be explored within a spatially‐explicit context.     

Spatio‐temporal land use multi‐objective optimization: A case study in Central China

Much effort has been applied to the study of land use multi‐objective optimization. However, most of these studies have focused on the final land use scenarios in the projected year, without considering how to reach the final optimized land use scenario. To fill this gap, a spatio‐temporal land use multi‐objective optimization (STLU‐MOO) model is innovatively proposed in this research to determine possible spatial land use solutions over time. The STLU‐MOO is an extension of a genetic land use multi‐objective optimization model (LU‐MOO) in which the LU‐MOO is generally carried out in different years, and the solutions at year T will affect the solutions at year T + 1. We used the Wuhan agglomeration (WHA) as our case study area. The STLU‐MOO model was employed separately for the nine cities in the WHA, and social, economic, and environmental objectives have been considered. The success of the experiments in the case study demonstrated the value and novelty of our proposed STLU‐MOO model. In addition, the results also indicated that the objectives considered in the case study were in conflict. According to the results, the optimal land use plan in 2050 can be traced back to 2040, 2030, and 2020, providing a series of Pareto solutions over the years which can provide spatio‐temporal land use multi‐objective optimization solutions to support the land use planning process.     

Knowledge Transfer for Large‐Scale Urban Growth Modeling Based on Formal Concept Analysis

Cellular automata (CA) are useful for studies on urban growth and land‐use changes. Although various methods have been developed to define transition rules, modeling urban growth of large areas remains a tough challenge owing to heterogeneous geographical features. To address the problem, we present a novel method based on the combination of Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) and knowledge transfer techniques. FCA is used to solicit association rules among cities within a large area. This method can provide a theoretical basis for the knowledge transfer process. A cutting‐edge algorithm called TrAdaBoost is then integrated with the commonly‐used Logistic‐CA as the modeling framework. The proposed method is applied to the urban growth modeling of Guangdong Province, a large region with 21 cities in China, from 2005 to 2008. Compared with traditional methods, this method can achieve better results at the provincial and local levels, according to the experiments. The combination of FCA and knowledge transfer is expected to provide a useful tool for calibrating large‐scale urban CA models.     

Fine‐scale intra‐ and inter‐city commercial store site recommendations using knowledge transfer

The rapid development of urban retail companies brings new opportunities to the Chinese economy. Due to the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of different cities, selecting a business location in a new area has become a challenge. The application of multi‐source geospatial data makes it possible to describe human activities and urban functional zones at fine scale. We propose a knowledge transfer‐based model named KTSR to support citywide business location selections at the land‐parcel scale. This framework can optimize customer scores and study the pattern of business location selection for chain brands. First, we extract the features of each urban land parcel and study the similarities between them. Then, singular value decomposition was used to build a knowledge‐transfer model of similar urban land parcels between different cities. The results show that: (1) compared with the actual scores, the estimated deviation of the proposed model decreased by more than 50%, and the Pearson correlation coefficient reached 0.84 or higher; (2) the decomposed features were good at quantifying and describing high‐level commercial operation information, which has a strong relationship with urban functional structures. In general, our method can work for selecting business locations and estimating sale volumes and user evaluations.     

'Situating' Simulation to Model Human Spatio-Temporal Interactions: An Example Using Crime Events

Many social phenomena have a spatio‐temporal dimension and involve dynamic decisions made by individuals. In the past, researchers have often turned to geographic information systems (GIS) to model these interactions. Although GIS provide a powerful tool for examining the spatial aspects of these interactions, they are unable to model the dynamic, individual‐level interactions across time and space. In an attempt to address these issues, some researchers have begun to use simulation models. But these models rely on artificial landscapes that do not take into account the environment in which humans move and interact. This research presents the methodology for ‘situating’ simulation through the use of a new modeling tool, Agent Analyst, which integrates agent‐based modeling (ABM) and GIS. Three versions of a model of street robbery are presented to illustrate the importance of using ‘real’ data to inform agent activity spaces and movement. The successful implementation of this model demonstrates that: (1) agents can move along existing street networks; (2) land use patterns can be used to realistically distribute agent's homes and activities across a city; and (3) the incidence and pattern of street robberies is significantly different when ‘real’ data are used.     

Modeling Urban Land Use Changes Using Support Vector Machines

Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a machine learning (ML) algorithm commonly applied to the classification of remotely sensing data and more recently for modeling land use changes. However, in most geospatial applications the current literature does not elaborate on specifications of the SVM method with respect to data sampling, attribute selection and optimal parameters choices. Therefore the main objective of this study is to present and investigate the SVM technique for modeling urban land use change. The SVM model building procedure is presented together with the detailed evaluation of the output results with respect to the choice of datasets, attributes and the change of SVM parameters. Geospatial datasets containing nine land use classes and spatial attributes for the Municipality of Zemun, Republic of Serbia were used for years 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The Correlation‐based Feature Subset method, kappa coefficient, Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) and kappa simulation were used to perform the model evaluation and compare the model outputs with the real land use datasets. The obtained results indicate that the SVM‐based models perform better when implementing balanced data sampling, reduced data sets to informative subsets of attributes and properly identify the optimal learning parameters.     

Enhancing a GIS Cellular Automata Model of Land Use Change: Bayesian Networks, Influence Diagrams and Causality

Cellular Automata (CA) models at present do not adequately take into account the relationship and interactions between variables. However, land use change is influenced by multiple variables and their relationships. The objective of this study is to develop a novel CA model within a geographic information system (GIS) that consists of Bayesian Network (BN) and Influence Diagram (ID) sub‐models. Further, the proposed model is intended to simplify the definition of parameter values, transition rules and model structure. Multiple GIS layers provide inputs and the CA defines the transition rules by running the two sub‐models. In the BN sub‐model, land use drivers are encoded with conditional probabilities extracted from historical data to represent inter‐dependencies between the drivers. Using the ID sub‐model, the decision of changing from one land use state to another is made based on utility theory. The model was applied to simulate future land use changes in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), Canada from 2001 to 2031. The results indicate that the model is able to detect spatio‐temporal drivers and generate various scenarios of land use change making it a useful tool for exploring complex planning scenarios.     

Simulating Spatial Dynamics and Processes in a Retail Gasoline Market: An Agent‐Based Modeling Approach

Simulating the dynamics and processes within a spatially influenced retail market, such as the retail gasoline market, is a highly challenging research area. Current approaches are limited through their inability to model the impact of supplier or consumer behavior over both time and space. Agent‐based models (ABMs) provide an alternative approach that overcomes these problems. We demonstrate how knowledge of retail pricing is extended by using a ‘hybrid’ model approach: an agent model for retailers and a spatial interaction model for consumers. This allows the issue of spatial competition between individual retailers to be examined in a way only accessible to agent‐based models, allowing each model retailer autonomous control over optimizing their price. The hybrid model is shown to be successful at recreating spatial pricing dynamics at a national scale, simulating the effects of a rise in crude oil prices as well as accurately predicting which retailers were most susceptible to closure over a 10‐year period.