共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 31 毫秒
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总结了国内外集合海浪预报的发展及应用现状,现有集合海浪预报的方法及优缺点。以NOAA/NCEP机构为例,给出了集合海浪主流预报产品的种类,通过集合预报产品的分析可以看出,集合海浪预报能够将传统的确定性预报扩展至概率预报领域,可给出更多可能出现的未来状态,能提供单纯确定性预报所不能提供的额外信息,已成为国际上业务化海洋学未来发展的重要方向之一。 相似文献
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海浪数值预报误差的统计分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
针对海浪资料同化中预报误差的统计性质难以确定的问题,利用WAVEWATCHⅢ和Topex/Posei-don(T/P)有效波高观测资料,对东中国海区的有效波高预报误差进行了统计分析。结果表明,预报误差符合正态分布;不同网格点的预报误差协方差随距离增长呈指数关系递减,并且空间上表现出弱各向异性;在预报模式空间网格为0.5°×0.5°条件下相关距离为3.0°~5.9°。 相似文献
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Bred-ensemble ocean forecast of loop current and rings 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ocean forecasting with a General Circulation Model (GCM) commonly begins from an initial analysis obtained by data assimilation. Instead of a single initial state, bred-ensemble forecast [BEnF; which is used for weather forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction] begins from an ensemble of initial states obtained by using the GCM to breed fast-growing modes into the analysis. Here we apply the technique to forecast the locations and strengths of the Loop Current and rings from July through September 2005. Model results are compared against satellite observations, surface drifter trajectories, and moored currents. It is found that BEnF gives closer agreements with observations than the conventional single forecast. The bred-vectors (perturbed minus unperturbed state-vectors) have growth rates ≈0.04–0.08 day−1 and spatial (cyclone–anticyclone) scales ≈200–300 km suggestive of baroclinic instability mode in the Loop Current and rings. As in atmospheric applications, initializations with these growing vectors contribute to the more accurate ensemble mean forecast. 相似文献
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用 T_TIDE 潮汐分析工具对青岛港口2019 年1—12 月逐时潮高资料进行不同时段的调和分析,计算其调和常数,并总结该港口潮汐特征。从 2019 年全年的调和分析结果中选择不同分潮建立调和预报模型,对2019 年1 月的潮高进行预测,通过相对误差、判定系数结果分析,确定最优调和预报模型。结果表明:青岛港口为正规半日潮港,以太阴主要半日分潮 M2分潮为主,其次为太阳主要半日分潮 S2 、太阴主要椭率半日分潮 N2 、太阴-太阳赤纬全日分潮 K1和太阴赤纬全日分潮 O1等分潮;对比不同时间长度的分潮振幅及平均海平面,可知其与用于调和分析的潮位资料长度几乎无关。分潮由5 个增加至24 个可明显改进预报效果,再增加几乎没有改进,故选用24 个分潮为最优的调和预报模型。为验证模型具有良好的实用性,对五号码头的实测潮汐数据进行分析预报,进而可知建立的模型能够较好地预报青岛港附近海域的潮汐变化。 相似文献
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台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和路径的不确定性意味着使用集合模式来预报风暴潮。本文利用中央气象台的最优路径台风参数驱动国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的水动力学模型,开展华南沿海的风暴潮模拟,模式模拟结果与实测吻合较好。为了改进计算效率,采用CUDA Fortran 语言对模型进行了改造,改造后的模型在计算结果与原模型基本一致的基础上,计算时间缩短了99%以上。通过融合欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECWMF)的50条路径与3种可能台风强度构造出了150个台风事件,并用150个台风事件驱动改进的风暴潮数值模型,计算结果可以提供集合预报产品和概率预报产品。通过“山竹”台风风暴潮过程可以发现集合平均预报结果和概率预报结果与实测吻合较好。改进的数值模型可以运行普通工作站上,非常适合风暴潮集合预报,并且可以提供更好的决策产品。 相似文献
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我国海洋观测预报系统概述 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
本文通过对大量国内外文献的搜集、研读、比较,结合笔者具体工作体会,全面概述了我国海洋观测预报系统的发展历程、取得的主要成就及社会服务功能、与发达国家和国际海洋观测预报业务以及计划的差距;提出了我国海洋观测预报业务未来发展的路线,树立正确海洋观测预报系统的框架,制定完善立体和多学科观测体系的规划,促进和加快新型预报模式的研发和应用. 相似文献
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I. O. Leont’yev 《Oceanology》2008,48(3):428-437
A method for predicting the coast evolution based on the calculated estimates of the components of the sediment budget is discussed. The approaches outlined in a series of previous publications of the author [9, 10, 11] are further developed. The prerequisites and concepts used as the basis of the suggested method for forecasting are characterized. The sediment budget parameters under typical conditions are presented. The contributions of natural processes and the anthropogenic impact are compared. Different approaches for calculating the principal sediment budget components, including the cross-shore flux through the lower boundary of the coastal zone, the eolian flux of sand material through the upper limit of the coastal zone, and the alongshore sediment flux gradients, are considered. The examples of forecasting the development of coasts in the Baltic and Kara seas and the Sea of Okhotsk are given for the period from 100 to 500 years. The results obtained show that, in the case of a balanced budget of the sediments, the future behavior of the coast would be mainly governed by the variations in the sea level. This factor is capable of determining the changes in the coastline, whose recession and advancing would depend on the rate of the sea level rise. Under specific conditions, an enhanced sea level rise can trigger destructive processes (for example, the erosion of a coastal bar or the thermal abrasion of a cliff). In the case of a strong imbalance in the sediment budget, sea-level changes play a subordinate role. 相似文献
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Variational data analysis with control of the forecast bias 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We propose a methodology for the treatment of the systematic model error in variational data assimilation. The principle of the method is to add a systematic error correction term in the model equations and to include it in the variational assimilation control vector.
This method is applied to a simplified ocean circulation model in an identical twin experiment framework. It shows a noticeable improvement compared to the result of a classical variational assimilation scheme in which the systematic error is not corrected. The estimated systematic error correction term is sufficiently consistent with that needed by the model that it allows improvements not just to the analysis, but also during the forecast phase. 相似文献
This method is applied to a simplified ocean circulation model in an identical twin experiment framework. It shows a noticeable improvement compared to the result of a classical variational assimilation scheme in which the systematic error is not corrected. The estimated systematic error correction term is sufficiently consistent with that needed by the model that it allows improvements not just to the analysis, but also during the forecast phase. 相似文献
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ImUcrIONThe deterministic storm stirge nurnrical fOrecast Tnedel has played an imPOrtant role inroutine storm surge real-time fOrecast. But somtimes the error of forecast is still large by usingdeterministic medels (Je1esnianshi et al., l992). The source of these errors mainly comesfrom (1 ) errors of wind stress and medel's open boundary, (2) non--optimized medel param-eter, (3) error of model equations, (4) error of medel's numrical methed, etc. The effec-ti ve methed to solve this probl… 相似文献
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一个稳态Kalman滤波风暴潮数值预报模式 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4
利用Kalman滤波资料同化技术将海洋站水位观测资料融入二维线性风暴潮模式中,研制具有资料同化能力的风暴潮预报模式,改进风暴潮模式计算结果.通过在风暴潮模式的动量方程中加入模式噪声项来修正模式本身和气象强迫力的不确定性.确定性模式的输出通过带有观测噪声的观测方程与可利用的海洋站的潮位观测资料联系起来.假定初始的模式噪声和观测噪声满足均值为0的高斯分布,用迭代法得到计算区域的状态向量的稳态Kalman滤波,进而得到风暴潮模式输出的最优线性校正结果.利用这种资料同化技术,对1956年发生在东海的一次强风暴潮过程进行了后报试验,结果表明,该同化方法对短期风暴潮水位后(预)报有一定的改进. 相似文献
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