人类活动对1961～2016年长江流域降水变化的可能影响

人类活动造成的温室气体浓度增加对气候变化的加剧做出了贡献,降水作为重要的气象要素和水循环组成部分,人类活动对其时空变化特征的影响也是当下研究的重要课题。本文以长江流域为例,利用1961～2016年CN05.1逐日降水数据和20世纪气候检测归因计划（C20C+D&A Project）中CAM5.1-1degree模式的逐日降水结果,分析了人类活动对长江流域年降水量及三个极端降水指数时空变化的影响。结果表明:包含人类活动及自然强迫因素的现实情景（All-Hist）的模拟结果与观测结果较为相近。All-Hist情景下的多试验集合平均结果对长江流域降水的模拟能力较为可靠。通过对比两种情景下模拟的长江流域降水量时空变化特征发现:考虑人类活动影响后,长江流域平均降水相对于仅考虑自然强迫情景下时呈现减少趋势,且减少趋势随时间推移加剧;极端降水受人类活动的影响随时间呈现出的增加趋势有所削弱;对平均降水及极端降水变化趋势的影响存在空间差异性,其中受人类活动影响最严重的是上游中部、东南部及中下游东南部地区,均呈现减少趋势;但在长江上游西南部极端降水受人类活动影响显著增加,需要加强该区域洪涝预防工作。另外,人类活动对平均降水的减少贡献最大的时段为2000～2009年,影响最明显季节为秋冬两季;人类活动对极端降水的影响与降水的极端程度成正相关,降水极端性越强,受人类活动影响的变化程度更大,且空间分布上的差异性也更加显著。     

Influence of observed and RCM-simulated precipitation on the water discharge over the Sirba basin, Burkina Faso/Niger

The forcing of a hydrologic model (ABC) by both observed and simulated precipitation from a regional climate model (MAR) has been performed over the Sirba watershed (39,000 km²) located in the Sahelian region. Two aspects have been more specifically examined: the spatial and temporal representations of precipitation. The comparison between simulated and observed discharges—using observed rainfall datasets as forcing of the hydrologic model—has shown that the representation of daily precipitation (which is mainly convective in the Sahelian region) was not sufficiently accurate to correctly simulate the hydrologic response of the watershed. Since this response drives the soil water budget and consequently the amount of evaporation in forthcoming coupling experiments, it is thus necessary to develop more realistic infra-daily precipitation associated with convective events. A new temporal disaggregation scheme has been then developed. Considering observed as well as simulated precipitation fields, this method has significantly improved the simulated discharge at the catchment outlet. The major role played by the temporal component compared to spatial component of the precipitation has been then underlined. In addition, the present study shows the unsuitability of the simulated precipitation from the RCM to directly force a hydrologic model at infra daily timescale even if the cumulative amount and the main features of the precipitation seasonal cycle are well simulated.     

江西省降水空间插值方法适用性分析

文中基于数字高程模型,建立了多元线性回归插值模型(MLR)和PRISM空间插值方法,并与传统的反距离权重法(IDW)和普通克里金插值法(OK)进行比较.结果表明:1)江西省5月、7—10月降水量与海拔高度存在显著的相关性,与坡度、坡向无明显相关.2)从插值精度来看,3—9月PRISM和MLR空间插值精度明显优于IDW和OK,冬半年IDW和OK插值精度略高于MLR和PRISM;4种插值方法的年降水量插值精度排序为PRISM>MLR>OK>IDW;PRISM和MLR在高海拔地区的插值精度远高于IDW和OK.3)从插值效果来看,4种插值方法的降水空间分布具有一致性,MLR和PRISM优于IDW和OK.     

Long-term water budget estimation with the modified distributed model – LISFLOOD-WB over the Lushi basin, China

Summary In a modification of the distributed hydrological model, LISFLOOD-WB, a two-source canopy scheme is used to predict both the canopy transpiration and soil evaporation. A revised soil storage capacity curve from the Xinanjiang model is applied to take into account the sub-grid heterogeneity. The modified model is used to estimate the long-term (1980–1997) water budget of the Lushi basin (4423 km²), China. All the input data fields are integrated in a four-dimensional GIS data structure with a raster grid spacing of 1-km. The basin channel network is determined from digital elevation data, and the spatial pattern of canopy leaf area index (LAI) is retrieved from NOAA/AVHRR NDVI images. Generally, the model efficiency for discharge prediction is acceptable, but the discharges are overestimated in the driest years and underestimated in the wettest years. The results indicated that the influence of inter-annual variation of spatial patterns of LAI detected by NOAA/AVHRR NDVI on the estimates of annual evapotranspiration is negligible. Annually averaged ratios of overland flow, infiltration and canopy interception to precipitation are 24±7%, 56±10% and 20±2%, respectively. The inter-annual variations of precipitation and predicted evapotranspiration are relatively high with standard deviations of 5.1 mm day⁻¹ and 2.4 mm day⁻¹, respectively, whereas the inter-annual variation of the net radiation is much less. Monthly temporal patterns of soil moisture follow precipitation strongly. Spatially precipitation and LAI are both significantly correlated with evapotranspiration, although precipitation has a slightly more dominant control. The linear relationship between water yield and LAI is weak on a grid by grid basis.     

基于MODIS资料的贵州植被叶面积指数的时空变化及其对气候的响应

利用2000～2006年MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)卫星遥感观测的植被叶面积指数月平均资料以及相应时段的月平均气温、降水的观测资料对贵州植被的时空变化进行了分析.结果表明贵州2000～2006年植被分布受水热条件控制表现出对气候因子不同的响应关系,其中对降水的响应关系比气温明显,特别是冬季和春季,而植被在夏季和秋季的分布主要受气温的制约,与降水的关系并不明显.从季节和年际尺度的时间变化角度而言,植被对气温的响应比对降水明显,季节变化和年际变化的相关系数分别为0.89和0.73(分别通过99.9%和95%信度检验).     

1981～2010年北京地区极端降水变化特征

采用北京地区20个常规气象站1981~2010年逐日降水数据,对北京地区极端降水的空间分布特征进行了分析。得到以下主要结论:1981~2010年,北京地区极端降水百分位数(第90、95和99个百分位数)阈值表现出较一致的空间分布特征,以第95个百分位数阈值计算的极端降水日数与降水阈值和降水量的分布有较大差异,极端降水量对总降水量的贡献可达30%~37%,极端降水强度分布与极端降水阈值分布相似。近30年,北京地区多数站点的极端降水量、降水日数和降水强度呈下降趋势,极端降水量以上甸子、怀柔、平谷和观象台下降较为明显,可达到40 mm(10 a)–1以上,极端降水强度以顺义、海淀、观象台、大兴和上甸子等站下降较为显著,每10 a降水强度减小趋势可达4 mm d–1,极端降水日数变化分布与极端降水量变化分布类似,极端降水强度变化与降水量和降水日数变化的分布有明显不同。     

Interdecadal variability/long-term changes in global precipitation patterns during the past three decades: global warming and/or pacific decadal variability?

This study explores how global precipitation and tropospheric water vapor content vary on the interdecadal/long-term time scale during past three decades (1988–2010 for water vapor), in particular to what extent the spatial structures of their variations relate to changes in surface temperature. EOF analyses of satellite-based products indicate that the first two modes of global precipitation and columnar water vapor content anomalies are in general related to the El Niño-Southern oscillation. The spatial patterns of their third modes resemble the corresponding linear fits/trends estimated at each grid point, which roughly represent the interdecadal/long-term changes happening during the same time period. Global mean sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface temperature have increased during the past three decades. However, the water vapor and precipitation patterns of change do not reflect the pattern of warming, in particular in the tropical Pacific basin. Therefore, other mechanisms in addition to global warming likely exist to account for the spatial structures of global precipitation changes during this time period. An EOF analysis of longer-record (1949–2010) SST anomalies within the Pacific basin (60^oN–60^oS) indicates the existence of a strong climate regime shift around 1998/1999, which might be associated with the Pacific decadal variability (PDV) as suggested in past studies. Analyses indicate that the observed linear changes/trends in both precipitation and tropospheric water vapor during 1988–2010 seem to result from a combined impact of global mean surface warming and the PDV shift. In particular, in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, a band of increases along the equator in both precipitation and water vapor sandwiched by strong decreases south and north of it are likely caused by the opposite effects from global-mean surface warming and PDV-related, La Niña-like cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific. This narrow band of precipitation increase could also be considered an evidence for the influence of global mean surface warming.     

费尔干纳盆地1950-2019年降水时空变化及其影响机制

基于1950-2019年费尔干纳盆地降水格点数据,利用线性回归法和经验正交函数（EOF）分析等方法,探究了费尔干纳盆地降水年际变化的影响因素及其空间分布模态,并研究了降水时空变化后的大尺度环流影响因素。结果显示：（1）1950-2019年,费尔干纳盆地降水总体呈下降趋势,为-2.20mm/10a,但并未通过显著性检验,同时对单个月份的降水进行检验也都未发现明显趋势。（2）费尔干纳盆地降水的主要模态有两个,解释了全区降水变化的70.52%,第一模态解释了全区降水变化的59.90%,空间向量场呈现全区一致型,表征研究区整体的降水变化情况,受到ENSO和西风带的影响;第二模态解释了全区降水变化的10.62%,空间向量场表现出从西北到东南的空间反相模态,表征研究区降水空间异质性,受到欧亚大陆北部输送的水汽影响。（3）厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）事件通过调整水汽输送路径和季风环流模式影响了费尔干纳盆地的降水变化;来自欧亚大陆北部的气流是造成费尔干纳盆地降水空间格局差异的主要原因。     

Spatial autocorrelation analysis of extreme precipitation in Iran

Spatial variations in extreme precipitation events make hydrological, climatological, social, environmental and agricultural effects on a country. This study presents the spatiotemporal autocorrelation analysis of extreme precipitation events over Iran using gridded data on daily precipitation for the period 1961–2010. The 95th percentile is considered as extreme precipitation factor. The spatial autocorrelation of extreme precipitation is examined by three commonly used spatial autocorrelation statistics, the G _i statistic index, Moran’s I global index, and Local Moran’s I (LISA) index, at the 95 and 99% significant confidence level. The results showed a strong significant spatial autocorrelation for extreme precipitation events with the highest Moran’s I value in January. The positive significant autocorrelation of extreme precipitation is observed over the southern parts of the Caspian Sea and Zagros Mountains ranges, while the negative significant autocorrelation is observed over the central and eastern parts of country. In spring and summer the positive autocorrelation cores displace from the Zagros Mountains ranges to the northwestern and southeastern parts.     

Impacts of boreal hydroelectric reservoirs on seasonal climate and precipitation recycling as simulated by the CRCM5: a case study of the La Grande River watershed,Canada

Located in northern Quebec, Canada, eight hydroelectric reservoirs of a 9782-km² maximal area cover 6.4% of the La Grande watershed. This study investigates the changes brought by the impoundment of these reservoirs on seasonal climate and precipitation recycling. Two 30-year climate simulations, corresponding to pre- and post-impoundment conditions, were used. They were generated with the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), fully coupled to a 1D lake model (FLake). Seasonal temperatures and annual energy budget were generally well reproduced by the model, except in spring when a cold bias, probably related to the overestimation of snow cover, was seen. The difference in 2-m temperature shows that reservoirs induce localized warming in winter (+0.7 ± 0.02 °C) and cooling in the summer (−0.3 ± 0.02 °C). The available energy at the surface increases throughout the year, mostly due to a decrease in surface albedo. Fall latent and sensible heat fluxes are enhanced due to additional energy storage and availability in summer and spring. The changes in precipitation and runoff are within the model internal variability. At the watershed scale, reservoirs induce an additional evaporation of only 5.9 mm year⁻¹ (2%). We use Brubaker’s precipitation recycling model to estimate how much of the precipitation is recycled within the watershed. In both simulations, the maximal precipitation recycling occurs in July (less than 6%), indicating weak land-atmosphere coupling. Reservoirs do not seem to affect this coupling, as precipitation recycling only decreased by 0.6% in July.

     

Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends

The influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation at several tropospheric levels on wet season precipitation over 292 sites across the Mediterranean area is assessed. A statistical downscaling model is designed with an objective methodology based on empirical orthogonal functions and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and tested by means of cross-validation. In all 30% of the total Mediterranean October to March precipitation variability can be accounted for by the combination of four large-scale geopotential height fields and sea level pressure. The Mediterranean sea surface temperatures seem to be less relevant to explain precipitation variability at interannual time scale. It is shown that interdecadal changes in the first CCA mode are related to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation index and responsible for comparable time scale variations of the Mediterranean precipitation throughout the twentieth century. The analysis reveals that since the mid-nineteenth century precipitation steadily increased with a maximum in the 1960s and decreased since then. The second half of the twentieth century shows a general downward trend of 2.2 mm·month^–1·decade^–1.     

Climate-Vegetation Interannual Variability in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Model

The coupled models of both the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) and the Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model (GOALS-AVIM) are used to study the main characteristics of interannual variations. The simulated results are also used to investigate some significant interannual variability and correlation analysis of the atmospheric circulation and terrestrial ecosystem. By comparing the simulations of the climate model GOALS-AVIM and GOALS, it is known that the simulated results of the interannual variations of the spatial and temporal distributions of the surface air temperatures and precipitation are generally improved by using AVIM in GOALS-AVIM. The interannual variation displays some distinct characteristics of the geographical distribution. Both the Net Primary Production (NPP) and the Leap Area Index (LAI) have quasi 1-2-year cycles. Meanwhile, precipitation and the surface temperatures have 2--4-year cycles. Conditions when the spectrum density values of GOALS are less than those of GOALS-AVIM, tell us that the model coupled with AVIM enhances the simulative capability for interannual variability and makes the annual cycle variability more apparent. Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis, the relationship between the ecosystem and the atmospheric circulation in East Asia is explored. The result shows that the strengthening and weakening of the East Asian monsoon, characterized by the geopotential heights at 500 hPa and the wind fields at 850 hPa, correspond to the spatiotemporal pattern of the NPP. The correlation between NPP and the air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation are different in interannual variability because of the variation in vegetation types.     

太行山复杂地形下华北暖季极端降水的时空分布特征

基于2012—2021年5—9月华北五省的逐日降水资料和台站地形高度数据,统计分析了华北全区及各子区域极端降水事件的降水量及其强度和频次的时空分布特征;并运用地理加权回归(GWR)模型分析得到极端降水事件的降水量、强度及频次与海拔高度之间的关系。结果表明:1)华北区域极端降水量的时间变化均呈多波动特征且区域差异性显著,太行山以西高原和以东平原降水频次多、波动明显且强度较弱,太行山南段以南平原降水频次少、变化平缓而强度明显偏强。2)极端降水量的空间分布呈现南北少、中间多的型态分布,降水量大值区分别位于燕山东南侧和太行山南段晋冀豫三省交界处;极端降水高频站点主要聚集在晋东南地区;日最大降水量超过300 mm的站点主要集中在太行山脉和燕山山脉与华北平原的过渡地带。3)华北区域38°N以北,极端降水量、降水频次、强度和日最大降水量均随海拔高度的升高而减小;38°N以南,山西南部临运地区降水量随海拔高度的升高而显著增加。由于降水频次和强度与地形均存在正相关而导致,太行山附近降水量随海拔高度的升高而减小的贡献主要在于降水强度而非降水频次。     

Precipitation and temperature trends and dryness/wetness pattern during 1971–2015 in Zhejiang Province,southeastern China

This study explores change of precipitation and temperature using the Mann–Kendall test and the spatiotemporal variation of dryness/wetness using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on 1-month time scales in Zhejiang Province, China, over 1971–2015. The results show that monthly precipitation had significant decreasing trends during April, May, September, and October, and significant increasing trends during November and December. Monthly temperatures had significant increasing trends in each month. Increasing temperature significantly increased drought events and intensity. There were consistent spatial patterns of dryness/wetness in Zhejiang. There were dryness trends in April, May, and September, a wetness trend in August, and no dryness/wetness pattern change in other months. The second EOF modes showed that dryness/wetness patterns were anti-phase between northern and southern Zhejiang during April–October. The third EOF modes showed that patterns were anti-phase between eastern and western Zhejiang in August and September.     

Iran's precipitation analysis using synoptic modeling of major teleconnection forces (MTF)

In this relatively unprecedented study, the effects of thirty-four leading teleconnection Patterns (indices) of atmospheric circulation- on regional-scale for the Middle East- along with precipitation over Iran have been investigated. Different types of data including teleconnection Indices from NOAA (NCEP/NCAR, BOM) and monthly precipitation data from thirty-six synoptic stations of Iran were applied. The data have been investigated with various types of statistical and synoptical methods. The results indicate that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most effective factor and it could possibly influence the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation on all types of climate regimes in Iran. ENSO (nino3.4), The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and The Arctic oscillation (AO) are known as the first three important indices, determined by Principal component analysis (PCA) method. The research has clarified that a combination of warm phase of ENSO and a predominant Southeastern (SE) wind over the Indian Ocean can result in a significant moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Middle East and to Iran; a combination of cold phase of ENSO and a predominant Northwestern (NW) wind over the Indian Ocean can be followed by a widespread drought over the Middle East and Iran. The results also indicate that a combination of the first three important above-mentioned indices and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can provide a much better explanation for spatial and temporal variation of precipitation of Iran. Finally, the results of this study will enable us to present a new approach and new graphical-conceptual modeling, called "Teleconnection-Synoptic Method (TSM)"to clarify the underlying mechanism that can explain the spatial and temporal variations of global atmospheric circulation and precipitation of Iran. According to the correlation of different patterns with precipitation, the strongest relationships are related to the Scandinavia Index (SCN), Pressure Change in East Pacific (dPEPac) and Trade Wind Index at the 850 hPa (TrdWnd850), respectively.     

Seasonal Evolution of Dominant Modes in South Pacific SST and Relationship with ENSO

A season-reliant empirical orthogonal function(S-EOF) analysis was applied to the seasonal mean SST anomalies(SSTAs) based on the HadISST1 dataset with linear trend removed at every grid point in the South Pacific(60.5-19.5 S,139.5 E-60.5 W) during the period 1979-2009.The spatiotemporal characteristics of the dominant modes and their relationships with ENSO were analyzed.The results show that there are two seasonally evolving dominant modes of SSTAs in the South Pacific with interannual and interdecadal variations;they account for nearly 40% of the total variance.Although the seasonal evolution of spatial patterns of the first S-EOF mode(S-EOF1) did not show remarkable propagation,it decays with season remarkably.The second S-EOF mode(S-EOF2) showed significant seasonal evolution and intensified with season,with distinct characteristics of eastward propagation of the negative SSTAs in southern New Zealand and positive SSTAs southeast of Australia.Both of these two modes have significant relationships with ENSO.These two modes correspond to the post-ENSO and ENSO turnabout years,respectively.The SEOF1 mode associated with the decay of the eastern Pacific(EP) and the central Pacific(CP) types of ENSO exhibited a more significant relationship with the EP/CP type of El Nin o than that with the EP/CP type of La Nin a.The S-EOF2 mode contacted with the EP type of El Nin o changing into the EP/CP type of La Nin a showed a more significant connection with the EP/CP type of La Nin a.     

我国东部夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化及其与东亚水汽输送的关系

本文利用1958～2000年ERA-40再分析每日资料和我国516台站降水资料以及EOF方法,分析了我国东部季风区夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化特征及其与东亚上空水汽输送通量时空变化的关系.分析结果表明了我国东部季风区夏季降水的时空变化存在两种主模态:第1主模态不仅显示出明显的准两年周期振荡的年际变化特征且也有明显的年...     

用耦合模型模拟青弋江流域水文对气候变化的响应

用陆面模式SSiB与动态植被模型TRIFFID以及流域地形指数水文模型的耦合模型SSiB4T/TRIFFID模拟了长江下游的青弋江流域植被和水量平衡的动态过程,分析了气温和降水变化对流域径流和蒸发的影响。结果表明：（1）流域气温上升10C,径流减小6.7-9.7%;气温上升20C,径流减小11.7-17.4%;（2）降水增加5%,径流增加9.2-11.6%,降水减小5%,径流减小8.6-11.6%;（3）温度不变仅降水变化对流域蒸发影响很小,温度增加20C,流域总蒸发3-10月份增加8.0-10.7mm,其余月份增加5.4-7.1mm,1月和12月蒸发对温度增加最敏感;（4）气温上升20C,叶面积指数1月和12月增加,5-10月略有减小。降水和气温变化对青弋江流域径流影响明显且与植被类型有关,流域蒸发的变化主要受温度变化的控制。     

一次飞机冷云增雨作业效果检验

最近60多年,全球范围内广泛开展了人工增雨作业,但人工增雨效果检验一直是个难题。传统上,利用雨量计和目标/对比区统计数据评估人工增雨效果,结果大多不确定。对一次人工增雨作业而言,从科学上给出令人信服的效果检验更是没有好的解决方案。2017年3月19日,陕西省实施业务飞机冷云增雨作业播撒含有750 g碘化银（AgI）的催化剂,播撒线长125 km。作业后卫星、雷达观测到一条与播云线对应的清晰的云迹线,地面雨滴谱仪观测到相应的雨强、雨滴数浓度、雨滴直径增大,表明播云使云体产生了增雨响应。针对这次增雨过程,从连片雷达回波中分离增雨作用造成的回波增强带（增雨影响回波）和确定了自然降水回波强度,建立增雨影响回波强度（Z）与地面雨强（I）的拟合关系（Z-I关系）,定量研究人工增雨的时、空演变。结果表明:（1）增雨影响时间约4 h,增雨影响回波区域（增雨影响区）面积为5448 km2。该区累计降雨总量和增雨总量分别为1.518×106 m3和8.04×105 m3,增雨影响区内增雨率达53%。（2）总降雨量、增雨量、自然降雨量随时间先增后减,总降雨量与增雨量的峰值同步,两者峰值都早于自然降雨峰值;催化后146 min （04时47分,世界时,下同）,每6 min增雨量达到最大,为4.9×104 m3;催化后174 min （05时15分）,增雨雷达回波面积达到最大（1711 km2）,面积峰值滞后增雨量峰值出现。（3）增雨影响区位于播撒线下游,呈条带状;区域内总降雨量空间分布为中间大边缘小,与增雨量空间分布一致。（4）此次增雨作业改变了降雨时、空分布,促进降雨形成,增加了地面降雨量。