Distribution of world science

Policymakers in science are often handicapped by a lack of uniform non-economic data on their field. In this continuation of a previous paper, the distribution of the number of scientists throughout the world is considered. To take some account of distances and proximity effects, a ‘potential’ method is used with the data. The results of the calculations show very large concentrations of scientists in North America and Europe. To take account of population concentrations, the scientific potentials were divided by the population potentials. The region of highest ratio in Western Europe is reduced by this method. Implications of the results are briefly discussed.     

去耦合方法求解非均质地区地下水中多组分反应-运移模型

近些年来地下水中多组分反应-运移模型在地球科学及环境领域开始得到应用,但其求解较为复杂,为了提高计算效率,可以采用去耦合化方法处理,从而使模型求解得到简化。针对自然界中广泛存在的非均质地质体,提出该类条件下的去耦合化方法,即根据水-岩间、水溶组分间反应的不同,将整个研究区划分为若干子区域,获得对应的去耦合化矩阵。对化学场中各子区域间相邻边界进行设定,达到简化模型求解的目的。最后,以一维非均质介质中基于热力学平衡的反应-运移问题作为算例,基于以上方法进行求解,并与该算例经PHAST软件所示的结果较为一致。结果表明,基于去耦合化方法获得的各离子浓度随时间演变和沿空间分布特征与PHAST所示的结果较为一致,显示该方法在非均质区域模拟溶质运移等方面具有较好的适用性。     

Gravity anomalies and dynamics of the Swiss Alps

An interpretation of the gravity observations in Switzerland is presented. The gravity anomalies are mainly caused by crustal effects. Taking 0.5 g/cm³ as the average density contrast between crust and upper mantle, the remaining positive residual field of + 50 mGal can be explained as the effect of the so-called “lithospheric root” underneath the Swiss Alps. This “root” must be considered as a relatively cold body with increased density. In order to calculate the thermally induced density distribution in the upper mantle, a kinematic and geothermal model has been constructed simulating the Alpine history for a time span covering the last 40 m.y.At the same time the moving lithospheric body (crustal uplift and subsidence of the lower lithosphere) is analysed from a dynamical point of view in order to test the kinematic conditions. The calculation leads to a mantle subsidence rate of 1 mm/y for the present period.     

An evaluation of the relative importance of the effects of climate change and groundwater extraction on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers in Atlantic Canada

To investigate the relative importance of projected sea-level rise, climate change effects on recharge, and groundwater extraction on seawater intrusion in important coastal aquifers in Atlantic Canada, a three-dimensional numerical model of density-dependent groundwater flow coupled with solute transport was developed for the Richibucto region of New Brunswick. The model was used, with an efficient 2^k factorial design approach, to perform simulations for the period 2011–2100. The results of the factorial analyses indicate that the relative importance of the three factors investigated varies depending on the model location considered. The effect of declining recharge is most significant at shallow to intermediate depths along the freshwater–seawater transition zone, while the effect of increasing pumping rates dominates at a location relatively close to the well field. The effect of sea-level rise is shown to be significant only at the much deeper inland toe of the transition zone. The spatial variation in importance is related to how different model boundary conditions influence freshwater flow at the different locations within the model domain. This investigation indicates that sea-level rise has the least significant effect (of the three factors considered) on future seawater intrusion in sandstone aquifers in the Richibucto region.     

Indexation and Normalization Modeling of Natural Gas Endowment

A novel modeling method is presented for indexing and normalizing natural gas endowments of petroleum provinces. The approach is demonstrated with data from Canada, the Unites States, and Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. A variable shape distribution model (VSD) is used to fit the conventional natural gas endowment published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for 29 provinces in LAC countries and 85 provinces in Canada and the United States. These data are indexed and normalized to generate curves showing number of provinces versus normalized endowments. Results are compared with normalized endowments from provinces in other regions around the world, including Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, North Africa, and the former Soviet Union (FSU). The comparison gives the method predictive power for estimating the natural gas endowment, particularly in LAC provinces that at present have little exploration activity. Of particular importance is the fact that all the curves of the various regions display a generally concave pattern throughout. The exception is the LAC curve, which displays the shape of an inverted S and has a distinct convex pattern at the largest gas endowment volumes. This comparison suggests there is potentially a large volume of natural gas in the region that has not been considered in previous studies.     

Stress-induced viscosity changes and the existence of dominant wavelengths in folds

The theory of folding in stratified media presented by Biot and Ramberg has been extended by considering a more general type of material response. The model consists of a viscous layer embedded in a less viscous medium, compressed parallel to the layering. A transition from Newtonian to non-Newtonian behavior is considered and an approximate solution to the governing equation is discussed. The results give the effect of local, stress-induced changes in the viscosity on the profile of the fold. The results indicate that as the transition to non-Newtonian behavior proceeds, the wavelength selection process described by Biot and Ramberg breaks down; the wavelength of the fold which develops probably will not be the “dominant” wavelength defined by Biot.     

On the importance of choosing a change of support model for global reserves estimation

The practical problem considered here is: how can block distribution in an orebody be forecast from sample data? The task is arduous because information yielded by samples is too often insufficient to allow an accurate evaluation of blocks. In practice, necessary additional information is obtained via a model. Choosing that model is crucial; the value of results reflects the model, i.e., its adequacy to represent reality. In this paper, the importance of choosing the change of support model is illustrated with simulations and practical examples (especially deposits with a skewed sample distribution and a large spike at the origin). An attempt to quantify this importance is made also.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Primary cracking of kerogens. Experimenting and modelling C1, C2–C5, C6–C15 and C15+ classes of hydrocarbons formed

Mathematical models of hydrocarbon formation can be used to simulate the natural evolution of different types of organic matter and to make an overall calculation of the amounts of oil and/or gas produced during this evolution. However, such models do not provide any information on the composition of the hydrocarbons formed or on how they evolve during catagenesis.From the kinetic standpoint, the composition of the hydrocarbons formed can be considered to result from the effect of “primary cracking” reactions having a direct effect on kerogen during its evolution as well as from the effect of “secondary cracking” acting on the hydrocarbons formed.This report gives experimental results concerning the “primary cracking” of Types II and III kerogens and their modelling. For this, the hydrocarbons produced have been grouped into four classes (C₁, C₂–C₅, C₆–C₁₅ and C₁₅₊). Experimental data corresponding to these different classes were obtained by the pyrolysis of kerogens with temperature programming of 4°C/min with continuous analysis, during heating, of the amount of hydrocarbons corresponding to each of these classes.The kinetic parameters of the model were optimized on the basis of the results obtained. This model represents the first step in the creation of a more sophisticated mathematical model to be capable of simulating the formation of different hydrocarbon classes during the thermal history of sediments. The second step being the adjustment of the kinetic parameters of “secondary cracking”.     

Comparison of the performance of power law and probability distributions in the frequency analysis of flood in Dez Basin,Iran

Determination of the return period of design flood depends on the nature of the project and the consequences of the flood and is based on economic criteria, human casualties, and hydrological factors. Underestimation of flood might result in casualties and economic damages, while the overestimation leads to capital waste. Therefore, in this research, the flood frequency analysis of Dez Basin, Iran was conducted within the period of 1956–2012 using power law approach together with ordinary distributions, including normal, log normal, Pearson type III, exponential, gamma, generalized extreme value, Nakagami, Rayleigh, logistic, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions. The power law comes from the fractal nature of earth science phenomena such as precipitation and runoff. Accordingly, in this research the partial duration flood series of five hydrometric stations in Dez Basin were extracted using power law with the intervals of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days and then compared with the annual maxima. The results indicated that the annual maxima were not suitable for frequency analysis of the flood in Dez Basin, and the 30-day partial duration series obtained from the power law has a better correspondence with the flow and properties of the Dez Basin. The independence and stationarity of the 30-day partial duration series were examined by Wald–Wolfowitz test, confirming the independence of the considered series. Next, the power distribution and the typical statistical distributions were fitted onto the data of the flood in Dez Basin, with the performance of each distribution being investigated using normalized root-mean-square error and Nash–Sutcliffe criteria. The results revealed that in the SDZ and TPB stations, power distribution had a better performance than other considered distributions. Moreover, in the SDS, TPS, and TZ stations the power distribution stood in the second rank in terms of the best distribution. As the performance of power distribution in the estimation of the flood in Dez Basin has been very satisfactory and calculation of its parameters and its application is easier than ordinary probability distributions, thus it can be suggested as the superior distribution for flood frequency analysis in Dez Basin.     

Analysis of extreme ground snow loads for Canada using snow depth records

Snow depth records from daily measurements at climatological stations were obtained from Environment Canada and were processed and analyzed. It was identified that there are 549 stations, each with at least 20 years of useable annual maximum snow depth data. Both the Gumbel distribution and generalized extreme value distribution were used to fit the annual maximum snow depth, considering several distribution fitting methods. Statistical analysis results indicated that, according to the Akaike information criterion, the Gumbel distribution is preferred for 72 % stations. The estimated return period value of annual maximum snow depth at stations was used to calculate their corresponding ground snow load. The at-site analysis results were used as the basis to spatially interpolate the ground snow loads for locations tabulated in the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) since a code location and a climatological site are usually not co-located. For the interpolation, the ordinary co-kriging method with elevation as co-variate was used because a cross-validation analysis by using several deterministic and probabilistic spatial interpolation techniques indicated that the ordinary co-kriging method is preferred. A comparison of the newly estimated ground snow loads to those locations tabulated in the 1995 edition and 2010 edition of the NBCC was also presented.     

Biomarker characterisation and hydrous pyrolysis of bitumens from Tertiary volcanics, queen Charlotte islands, British Columbia, Canada

A number of bitumen samples have been recovered from vugs and fractures in outcropping Tertiary basalts of the Queen Charlotte Islands off the west coast of British Columbia, Canada. n-Alkanes and acyclic isoprenoids are not present and the polycyclic biomarker distribution of the four samples analyzed by GC and GC-MS has been altered. One sample contains no remaining recognizable biomarkers. Two bitumens were also obtained from Lower Jurassic potential source rocks, including one from the Sandilands Formation, which was considered previously to be the most likely source of the Tertiary bitumens. Although these two bitumens were also taken from outcrops, they are considerably less biodegraded. The Sandilands Formation bitumen contains 28, 30-bisnorhopanes and since these compounds were not detected in the Tertiary bitumens, there is no evidence from the initial results for a Sandilands Formation contribution to the hydrocarbons in the Tertiary basalts. The presence of 18α(H)-oleanane in the saturate fraction of two of the Tertiary bitumens from widely separated locations indicates that they are at least partially sourced from Tertiary organic matter.Because the distribution of biomarkers in some samples has been severely affected by biodegradation, the asphaltenes of the bitumens were hydrously-pyrolysed and the saturate fractions of the resulting pyrolysates analysed for possible additional information on the origin of the bitumens. The pyrolysates from the more degraded samples contain compounds not detected in the saturate fractions of the original bitumen and show some of the expected characteristics of the original non-degraded bitumen. However, the compounds most useful for correlation are not present in the pyrolysates apparently due to their non-incorporation into the kerogen macromolecule. Our results suggest that hydrous-pyrolysis of asphaltenes is of limited use in the correlation of biodegraded samples and in determining their origins.     

Hierarchical aggregation in percolation model

There is a growing belief that the complex dynamics of seismicity can be better understood by studying the collective behavior of numerous lithosphere instability sources rather than focusing on the details of each of them. Classical site-percolation is a simple and tractable model which exhibits such important general features of complex systems as criticality and phase transitions of second kind. It also illustrates the mechanism of hierarchical aggregation, which is very important for explaining collective phenomena in material fracture and earthquake nucleation processes. We study the dynamics of a 2D site percolation model on a square lattice using the hierarchical approach introduced by Gabrielov et al., Phys. Rev. E., 5293–5300, 1999. The key elements of the approach are the tree representation of clusters and the Horton–Strahler scheme for cluster ranking. Accordingly, the evolution of percolation model is considered as a hierarchical inverse cascade of cluster aggregation. We analyzed the growth of the percolation cluster and established the time-dependent rank distribution of its subclusters, as well as corresponding laws for its mass, rank, and their relationship. We report several phenomena premonitory to the onset of percolation that complement the traditional power-law increase of the model's observables. In addition, we have shown that the Tokunaga side-branching constraint uniquely determines the mass–rank relationship for a general aggregation process (not necessarily originated from the percolation model). The results can be used for development and improvement of earthquake prediction techniques.     

A Moore's cellular automaton model to get probabilistic seismic hazard maps for different magnitude releases: A case study for Greece

Cellular automata are simple mathematical idealizations of natural systems and they supply useful models for many investigations in natural science. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and slider block models used in seismology. In the present paper, they have been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the seismic events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. A stochastic cellular automaton is constructed starting with these patterns, in order to simulate their spatio-temporal evolution, by supposing a Moore's neighborhood interaction between the cells. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the Greece catalogue from 1900 to 1999. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for energies corresponding to m = 4 and m = 5 are close to the real seismicity after the data in that area, and they correspond to a background seismicity in the whole area. This background seismicity seems to cover the whole area in periods of around 25–50 years. The optimum cell size is in agreement with other studies; for m > 6 the optimum area increases according to the threshold of clear spatial resolution, and the active cells are not so clustered. The results are coherent with other hazard studies in the zone and with the seismicity recorded after the data set, as well as provide an interaction model which points out the large scale nature of the earthquake occurrence.     

基于径向不变假定的现浇大直径管桩纵向振动响应频域解

假定各物理量沿径向不变化,建立了低应变瞬态集中荷载作用下现浇大直径管桩振动响应的计算模型和波动方程。采用Laplace变换法,求得了波动方程的频域解析解,采用Fourier逆变换求得了时域响应。将文中解计算结果与三维频域解析解进行了对比分析,文中解的入射峰-反射峰时间差与三维频域解差别很小,说明对于PCC桩这种大直径薄壁管桩,采用径向不变假定对计算结果几乎没有影响。因此,在PCC桩低应变检测波形分析时,采用基于径向不变假定的二维解是完全合理的。将文中二维频域解的计算结果与二维时域解的结果进行了对比分析,结果表明,2种解在入射波、第一个桩底反射波、第二个桩底反射波峰值大小和到达时间非常吻合,这说明考虑环向位移与否对计算结果没有太大的影响,研究PCC桩低应变动力响应的问题时忽略水平方向的位移是完全可以的。     

An Approach to a Visual Language for Convective Fluid Flows: Visualization of Geophysical Simulations

It was known that deep within numbers and binary data from simulations of geophysical convective flows resided various patterns. Two models of convective fluid flows were being considered. One was a model of two-dimensional (768 × 256) air convection with finite Prandtl number of one and Rayleigh number of 10⁸−10¹⁰, and another was a model of three-dimensional (up to 120 × 120 × 90) mantle convection with infinite Prandtl number and Rayleigh number of 10⁶−10⁸. Clearly, phenomena existed which superceded each individual dimensionless computer model to provide a piece of information regarding actual fluid flows. The problem was how to find, prove, and communicate these patterns and phenomena for convection simulations with gigabytes of data. In a search for such an analytical and communicative tool, the alternative of visualization was considered. The need for visualization was recognized and discussed. Then, utilizing both two- and three-dimensional models of high Rayleigh number convection, basic techniques of style and content were developed. Applications of the visualization techniques were designed utilizing IBM’s Data Explorer in order to create communicative images and movies, and after the applications, the problems of data storage and transfer became apparent. Throughout the process though, it became clear how important the language of vision actually could be in the geophysics community. In a field in which words such as plumes and internal waves have in ways replaced mathematics as the basic language for science, there is a need for another resource, another language-the visualization of convective fluid flows.     

A probabilistic approach to post-wildfire debris-flow volume modeling

As populations continue to move into more mountainous terrain, a greater understanding of the processes controlling debris flows has become important for the protection of human life and property. The potential volume of an expected debris flow must be known to effectively mitigate any hazard it may pose, yet an accurate estimate of this parameter has to this point been difficult to model. To this end, a probabilistic method for the prediction of debris flow volumes using a database of 1351 yield rate measurements from 33 post-wildfire, runoff-generated debris flows in the Western USA is presented herein. A number of geomorphological, climatic, and geotechnical basin characteristics were considered for inclusion in the model, and correlation analysis was conducted to identify those with the greatest influence on debris flow yield rates. Groupings within the database were then clustered based on their similarity levels; a total of six clusters were identified with similar slope angle and burn intensity characteristics. For each of these six clusters, a probability density function detailing the distribution of yield rates within the cluster was developed. The model uses a Monte Carlo simulation to combine each of these distributions into a single probabilistic model for any basin in which a debris flow is expected to occur. This approach was validated by applying the model to ten basins that experienced debris flows of known volumes throughout the Western USA. The model predicted nine of the ten debris flow volumes to within the 95% confidence interval of the final distribution; a regression analysis for the ten volumes resulted in an R ² of 0.816. These results compared favorably with those generated by an existing volume model. This approach provides accurate results based on easily obtainable data, encouraging widespread use in land planning and development.     

地下水更新能力评价指标问题刍议——更新周期和补给速率的适用性

地下水更新能力是近些年地下水科学与工程领域的一个研究热点,其定义目前尚未统一,评价指标也较多,其中较常用的有地下水更新周期、补给速率、年龄和滞留时间等。尽管这些参数间大都存在一定的数量关系,但由于它们代表的物理意义不同,所以得到的地下水更新能力的结论也会不同。以北京市平原区地下水为例验证了这种不同,并对更新周期和补给速率这两个存在密切数量关系的参数作为地下水更新能力评价指标的适用性进行了对比分析。结果表明:① 分别用更新周期和补给速率作为评价指标,得到的各地区(北京市平原区各区、县)之间地下水更新能力相对强弱的结论是不同的;② 与更新周期相比,由补给速率得到的评价结论具有较好的稳定性;③ 在作为地下水更新能力评价指标时,补给速率比更新周期具有更重要的实际意义。     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112001284

This study deals with the biogeography of Antarctic microflora （Antarctica acts as best model to study microbial biogeography） such as cyanobacteria and selected halophiles with special emphasis on Halomonas variabilis and Bacillus licheniformis.Halophiles are known to be resistant not only to salt stress,but also to extreme temperature,pressure,and aridity and they are capable of surviving in harsh environments such as polar regions,deep-sea habitats,and deserts.Many microbes are known to be resistant to hostile environmental conditions,and are capable of surviving in harsh environments.Our group has isolated 444 strains belonging to 28 genera of halophiles from various environments around the world.The 16S rRNA gene sequences revealed that many of the isolated strains from geographically distant habitats having different environmental conditions,were closely related to each other,with some strains possessing 100％ identical sequences.Organisms possessing survival mechanism such as spore formation are usually ubiquitous.The genus Halomonas is represented by potentially endemic strains and the ubiquitous H.variabilis,while spore-forming B.licheniformis showed cosmopolitan distribution.One potentially endemic （moderate endemicity that is regional and/or continental distribution） strain was reported from Syowa station,East Antarctica,and Mario Zucchelli station,West Antarctica,which are geographically separated by 3000 km.Moreover,15 strains having 100％ similarity with B.licheniformis were considered cosmopolitans.The results of this work provide support for the middle-ground model that some microbes have moderate endemicity and others have cosmopolitan distribution.These results will contribute to a greater understanding of microbial biogeography with special emphasis on Antarctica.     

Risk early warning of maize drought disaster in Northwestern Liaoning Province,China

This study presents a methodology of risk early warning of maize drought disaster in Northwestern Liaoning Province from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, environmental science, and so on. The study area was disaggregated into small grid cells, which has higher resolution than counties. Based on the daily meteorological data and maize yield data from 1997 to 2005, the risk early warning model was built up for drought disaster. The early warning crisis signs were considered from exogenous warning signs and endogenous warning signs. The probability of drought was taken as endogenous warnings sign, which was calculated by logistic regression model. Beside precipitation, wind speed and temperature were taken into consideration when assessing the drought. The optimal partition method was used to define the threshold of each warning grade. Take the year of 2009 as an example, this risk early warning model performed well in warning drought disasters of each maize-growing stage. Results obtained from the early warning model can guide the government to take emergency action to reduce the losses.     

Mid-Holocene Glacier Peak and Mount St. Helens We Tephra Layers Detected in Lake Sediments from Southern British Columbia Using High-Resolution Techniques

A Glacier Peak tephra has been found in the mid-Holocene sediment records of two subalpine lakes, Frozen Lake in the southern Coast Mountains and Mount Barr Cirque Lake in the North Cascade Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. The age–depth relationship for each lake suggests an age of 5000–5080 ¹⁴C yr B.P. (5500–5900 cal yr B.P.) for the eruption which closely approximates the estimated age (5100–5500 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) of the Dusty Creek tephra assemblage found near Glacier Peak. The tephra layer, which has not been reported previously from distal sites and was not readily visible in the sediments, was located using contiguous sampling, magnetic susceptibility measurements, wet sieving, and light microscopy. The composition of the glass in pumice fragments was determined by electron microprobe analysis and used to confirm the probable source of this mid-Holocene tephra layer. Using the same methods, the A.D. 1481–1482 Mount St. Helens We tephra layer was identified in sediments from Dog Lake in southeastern British Columbia, suggesting the plume drifted further north than previously thought. This high-resolution method for identifying tephra layers in lake sediments, which has worldwide application in tephrachronologic/paleoenvironmental studies, has furthered our knowledge of the timing and airfall distribution of Holocene tephras from two important Cascade volcanoes.