基于神经网络响应面的结构可靠性分析方法研究

针对二次多项式响应面法存在的缺点 ,建立了神经网络响应面 ,进而提出了基于神经网络响应面的结构可靠性分析方法。通过多种数值试验表明 ,神经网络响应面可以快速、精确地拟合结构的极限状态函数 ,为结构的系统可靠性分析开辟了新的途径     

基于改进神经网络的板桩结构可靠性分析

板桩码头是港口工程的一种常用结构,计算其可靠度指标对港口工程的安全意义重大。由于板桩结构的设计计算复杂,功能函数表达难度较大。Monte-Carlo法是解决此类问题的一种方法,但需要大量的抽样与数值计算,很不经济。人工神经网络模型可以用来逼近功能函数,在此基础上可平行地建立一次二阶矩法进行可靠度分析。但传统的BP神经网络模型有着容易陷入局部极小及预测精度低等问题。针对上述问题,引入Adaboost算法来改进BP神经网络模型,提出一种基于Adaboost的BP神经网络法来计算板桩结构的可靠度。以天津某板桩码头为例,采用新方法对板桩结构进行可靠度分析,并将计算结果与传统BP神经网络法及Monte Carlo法进行比较。结果表明:新方法的计算精度高于传统BP神经网络法,且计算结果与Monte Carlo法接近。     

海洋平台结构风险评估

作为结构系统可靠性方法与结构损伤冗余设计的一个合理延伸与综合，结构风险评估与决策技术是近年来得到迅速发展的新方法。本文讨论了海洋平台结构风险评估的理论框架，涉及了结构风险评估的几个基本方面，为进一步进行详细研究确立了一条主线。本文还对导管架式平台的结构风险评估进行了简要讨论。     

海洋平台结构系统可靠性分析

本文研究了对三维模型的导管架平台结构系统可靠性评估方法。在极值载荷条件下，分别以极限冲剪应力及屈曲临界应力作为管节点及杆件的极限强度，采用增量载荷法建立失效模式安全余量方程。同时研究了求取结构系统主要失效模式的自动算法及计算系统失效概率的方法。作为一个算例，运用作者开发的计算机程序，对一固定式导管架平台进行了可靠性分析，验证了本文方法对开展三维模型平台结构系统可靠性评估是可行的。     

基于模拟退火算法的潜艇结构系统可靠性计算

针对结构系统可靠度计算中重要样本函数选择的困难，提出了应用模拟退火算法的自适应的重要样本法，并根据结构系统可靠性计算的特点，给出了适宜的模拟退火过程的冷却进度表。潜艇耐压结构系统可靠性分析的算例表明，本方法可有效地解决非线性失效方程的工程结构系统可靠度的计算问题。     

随时间变化的海洋平台结构系统可靠性分析

海洋平台在服役期间由于受到各种损伤,其系统可靠性将随时间而变化。本文分析了几种典型损伤——疲劳损伤、腐蚀损伤对海洋平台结构系统可靠性的影响,在考虑其对结构构件强度和承受载荷的影响情况下分析随时间而变化的海洋平台结构的系统可靠性。首先得到考虑时间因素的结构构件的强度和载荷函数,采用分枝界限法寻找结构的主要失效路径,最后以Ｄｉｔｌｅｖｓｅｎ界限法求取结构的系统失效概率。算例说明,在考虑时间因素的条件下,结构的系统可靠性将会迅速下降。按以上思路编制了空间刚架在构件强度随时间变化条件下的通用可靠性分析程序,算例表明程序是合理有效的。     

基于小波变换与神经网络的海洋平台结构损伤识别与定位研究

基于小渡变换的时频局域化特性和人工神经网络的非线性映射特性,将两者优点结舍发展了一种适用于海洋平台结构损伤识别与定位的新方法.以一典型海洋平台模型数值模拟结构损伤识别效果,结果表明将小渡变换和神经网络方法联合应用于海洋平台结构损伤识别与定位是切实可行的.     

应用遗传神经网格方法分析赤潮监测数据

简要介绍了遗传神经网络方法的原理，探讨了应用遗传神经网络方法研究辽东湾海域丹麦细柱藻（Leptocylindrus danicus)赤潮与某环境因子之间的关系，计算了各环境因子对丹麦细柱藻赤潮的贡献，结果表明，温度，盐度，DIN的变化对研究海域丹麦细柱藻种群密度的增长有比较重要的影响，DIN是营养限制因子，遗传神经网络是分析赤潮监测数据的有效方法，值得进一步探索。     

三对角系统的最佳向后扰动分析

用一种新方法研究了三对角方程组及对称三对角方程组计算解的最佳向后扰动分析。由于这两类方程组的系数矩阵具有特殊结构 ,因而本文结果不能从已有结果直接导出。所用方法亦可用于研究 KKT及 SQD等结构线性系统的最佳向后扰动分析。     

长江口流域亚硝酸盐预测模型与分析

营养盐是控制长江口流域富营养化的关键因子之一。分析亚硝酸盐与其影响因子之间关系,引入人工智能方法,基于弹性BP神经网络,建立亚硝酸盐非线性预测模型,目的是通过影响因子在线监测,间接实现亚硝酸盐在线监测。依据神经网络权值和阈值获取方法不同,形成基于弹性BP神经网络、基于遗传算法和弹性BP神经网络,和基于改进的遗传算法和弹性BP神经网络的亚硝酸盐预测模型3种。通过仿真实验,分析3种模型对亚硝酸盐预测的影响,发现基于改进的自适应遗传算法和弹性BP神经网络的亚硝酸盐模型预测效果最优,为选择合适模型提供依据。     

海洋微塑料检测技术研究进展

海洋微塑料污染目前已成为全球性的环境问题,近年来海洋微塑料检测技术越来越受到人们的关注。本文简要总结了微塑料样品采集及处理方法,并从检测方法的角度系统综述了近些年来微塑料检测技术的研究进展,涉及目视分析法、光谱法(如傅立叶变换红外光谱法和拉曼光谱法)、热分析法以及其他分析方法等(如质谱法以及扫描电子显微镜-能谱仪联用法)。本文简要评价了各类检测方法的优缺点,以期为海洋微塑料检测技术的发展提供参考,并探讨了未来海洋微塑料检测技术的发展方向。     

并矢相关谱分析方法在非线性资料分析中的应用

本文利用到率并矢相关谱估计方法,对青岛月平均气温（1896年1月—1992年12月）足赤道局部地区日表层水温（0°±0．5°S,165°±0．5°E;1986年12月6日—1991年11月16日）进行了谱分析,结果表明：青岛气温除具有1年周期的主频振荡和二倍峰频处0．5年周期二阶非线性耦合效应外,还隐含有2年周期的低频耦合振荡及0．4年周期的高频耦合振荡;赤道局部地区日表层水温含有90天,63天,50天,40天和29天等几个主要的低频周期振荡。     

Sampling effort required to recover the main gradients in marine benthic species composition

Marine benthic surveys and monitoring programs may have several goals. When the aim of such studies is to reveal and describe gradients in species composition, the gain in ecological insight achieved by the study depends on how well the spatial variability of species’ occurrence and abundance within the study area is covered by the sampling design. The common practice in such programs is to collect four or five grab samples from each visited site to capture the site's species composition. The rationale for this practice is based on the aim of capturing a large proportion of species at a specific site (i.e. point). We argue that this practice has been established without taking Iterative approaches into account, such as decreasing the sampling effort at each site and instead increase the number of sites visited. The collection and processing of data from marine sediment ecosystems are time‐consuming and, thus, expensive. Therefore, finding the optimal trade‐off between the number of sites visited and the number of samples per site is important. We examined this trade‐off by exploring how reduction of sampling effort per site affects the stability and recovery of gradients in species composition of marine benthic macrofauna. Our full data set consisted of four grab samples from each of 28 sites from the inner part of the Oslofjord, SE Norway. Procrustes analysis and calculation of Kendall's rank correlation coefficients showed that the main gradient in species composition extracted by detrended correspondence analysis of data sets with reduced per‐site sampling effort closely resembled the main gradient extracted for the full data set. Our results therefore suggest that marine benthic surveys that aim to identify the main gradient structure of species composition and relate this structure to main environmental complex gradients are likely to benefit from reducing the sampling effort at each site and, instead, increasing the number of visited sites. We argue that coverage of both the variation in species composition and the environment in the study area will then be improved. Monitoring programs with other aims than to identify the main gradients in species composition may also benefit from the adoption of a many‐sites, one‐sample sampling strategy. This may be particularly true if additional sampled sites are based on a stratified sampling strategy that ensures that the spatial variability in the study area is accounted for.     

Identification of biomarkers of cores from the South China Sea

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2018年1月江苏3次致灾暴雪成因对比分析

应用常规天气图资料、FY-2E 云顶亮温(TBB)资料、多普勒雷达观测资料和NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料,对江苏2018年1月3—4日(简称“01·04”过程)、1月24—25日(简称“01·25”过程)和1月27—28日(简称“01·27”过程)3次暴雪过程进行了对比分析。结果表明：1)3次暴雪过程都是在500 hPa高空槽、中低层切变线、700 hPa西南急流和地面冷空气的共同影响下产生的;暴雪过程中水汽主要来源于中层,降雪期间逆温层结始终存在。2)不同之处是,“01·04”过程中层暖湿气流先形成,水汽条件更好,而后弱冷空气自低层楔入,促使暖湿气流抬升,上升运动发展更为旺盛;“01·25”过程和“01·27”过程低层先形成冷垫,而后中层暖湿气流增强沿冷垫爬升,冷垫更冷,“01·25”过程逆温更强。3)暴雪过程中TBB稳定低值期基本可以反映强降雪时段;“01·04”过程中有弱对流发展,造成降雪强度大。     

Investigation of Arctic air temperature extremes at north of 60°N in winter

Air temperature is a key index reflecting climate change. Air temperature extremes are very important because they strongly influence the natural environment and societal activities. The Arctic air temperature extremes north of 60°N are investigated in the winter. Daily data from 238 stations at north of 60°N from the global summary of the day for the period 1979–2015 are used to study the trends of cold days, cold nights, warm days and warm nights during the wintertime. The results show a decreasing trend of cold days and nights(rate of –0.2 to –0.3 d/a) and an increasing trend of warm days and nights(rate of +0.2 to +0.3 d/a) in the Arctic. The mean temperature increases,which contributes to the increasing(decreasing) occurrence of warm(cold) days and nights. On the other hand,the variance at most stations decreased, leading to a reduced number of cold events. A positive AO(Arctic Oscillation) index leads to an increased(decreased) number of warm(cold) days and nights over northern Europe and western Russia and an increased(decreased) number of cold(warm) days and nights over the Bering Strait and Greenland. The lower extent of Arctic autumn sea ice leads to a decreased number of cold days and nights.The occurrences of abrupt changes are detected using the Mann-Kendall method for cold nights occurring in Canada in 1998 and for warm nights occurring in northwestern Eurasia in 1988. This abrupt change mainly resulted from the mean warming induced by south winds and an increased North Atlantic sea surface temperature.     

LNG低温复合软管疲劳特性及参数化分析研究

LNG低温复合软管具有强度高、重量轻、柔韧性好等优点,可以满足恶劣海况下LNG的输送需求,但其结构复杂,且面临多种耦合载荷作用下的疲劳失效问题。首先建立了LNG低温复合软管的有限元模型,研究了复合软管在弯曲和内压载荷下的力学响应和弯曲疲劳寿命特性;然后改变螺旋钢丝直径、预紧间距、导程和纤维层数及摩擦系数等参数,对软管的弯曲疲劳寿命进行了参数化分析。结果表明预紧间距、导程和纤维层数对复合软管的疲劳损伤影响显著：预紧间距增大时,复合软管疲劳损伤先增大后减小;导程减小或者层数增加时,复合软管的疲劳损伤会明显减小;摩擦系数对疲劳损伤几乎没有影响。研究成果可为低温复合软管的结构设计提供理论参考。     

美国4 个凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)种群形态差异与判别分析

采用3种多元分析方法,对来源于美国的4个凡纳滨对虾种群的13个形态比例参数进行比较研究.聚类分析结果表明,Kona Bay种群与Molokai种群形态差异很小,而SIS种群、OI种群趋异程度逐渐增加.判别分析结果显示,4种群的13个形态比例参数有着极显著的差异(P>0.01);4个种群雌虾的判别准确率P1为61.76%-97.14%,判别准确率P2为62.03%-96.43%,综合判别率为80.25%;4个种群雄虾的判别准确率P1为75.76%-97.06%,判别准确率P2分别为67.57%-97.06%,综合判别率为80.71%,各种群的判别函数判别准确率均较高;主成分分析,构建的雌体的5个主成分方差贡献率分别为,主成分1:23.594%,主成分2:19.534%,主成分3:15.748%,主成分4:13.653%,主成分5:8.653%.累积贡献率为81.182%.而在构建的雄体的5个主成分中,方差贡献率分别为主成分1:22.095%,主成分2:19.270%,主成分3:15.430%,主成分4:15.245%,主成分5:7.885%.累积贡献率为79.925%.综上所述,Kona Bay种群与Molokai种群应是同一种群,与SIS种群亲缘关系较为接近,SIS种群和OI种群为独立的种群.     

Velocity and AVO analysis for the investigation of gas hydrate along a profile in the western continental margin of India

The occurrence of gas hydrate has been inferred from the presence of Bottom-Simulating Reflectors (BSRs) along the western continental margin of India. In this paper, we assess the spatial and vertical distribution of gas hydrates by analyzing the interval velocities and Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) responses obtained from multi-channel seismics (MCSs). The hydrate cements the grains of the host sediment, thereby increasing its velocity, whereas the free gas below the base of hydrate stability zone decreases the interval velocity. Conventionally, velocities are obtained from the semblance analysis on the Common Mid-Point (CMP) gathers. Here, we used wave-equation datuming to remove the effect of the water column before the velocity analysis. We show that the interval velocities obtained in this fashion are more stable than those computed from the conventional semblance analysis. The initial velocity model thus obtained is updated using the tomographic velocity analysis to account for lateral heterogeneity. The resultant interval velocity model shows large lateral velocity variations in the hydrate layer and some low velocity zones associated with free gas at the location of structural traps. The reflection from the base of the gas layer is also visible in the stacked seismic data. Vertical variation in hydrate distribution is assessed by analyzing the AVO response at selected locations. AVO analysis is carried out after applying true amplitude processing. The average amplitudes of BSRs are almost constant with offset, suggesting a fluid expulsion model for hydrate formation. In such a model, the hydrate concentrations are gradational with maxima occurring at the base of hydrate stability zone.     

植物同工酶基因定位方法初探

根据基因在异源多倍体染色体组间的变异，提出通过缺对一四体和双端体的酶谱分析，无需在不同品种间杂交，即可将同工酶结构基因定位在特定的染色体臂上。还提出，由于等位基因在双体和三体间的变异．通过三体酶谱分析，也能有效地进行同工酶基因定位。