Research on the fishing season forecasting with the freedom adjustment of double correlation coefficient

昒sually, the stepwise regression method is used to select the forecasting factors in the most forecasting problems and the double correlation coefficient is used as a standard for the judge ment of the forecasting function. In fact, it cannot be decided whether the forecasting function is to be adopted or not only according to whether the double correlation coefficient is large or small. Here, we used the freedom adjusting method of the double correlation coefficient to study the season forecasting and used the method to select the factors for the fishing season forecasting function of the Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus) at the estuary of the Changjiang River. The test result of reforecasting is satisfactory and the greatest error is only two days as compared with the real fishing season. The forecasting result of the fishing season is also satisfactory.     

Numerical modelling of the tide-induced residual current in the East China Sea

-A two-dimensional.nonlinear numerical model is used to study the residual current generated by tides in the East China Sea (ECS)and the South Huanghai Sea (SHS). At first, the principal semidiurnal lunar tide (M2)and the tidal current are derived in these areas. The results obtained with the model are strongly supported by the observational results available. Then, the tide-induced residual flow is determined by using the currents generated by the tidal input. The main features of the residual current in ECS and SHS are presented by analyzing the calculated results. Some of the problems are discussed such as the cause of generating residual current and the contribution of the residual current to the observed current.     

Heat oscillation in the upper ocean of the southern South China Sea

Data used in this study are temperature/depth profiles taken over the upper 400 m of the ocean in the southern South China Sea (4°-14° N, 106°-120° E) for the period 1961-1973. The data are analyzed on the grid 2 (latitude) by 2 (longitude) in space and bimonthly in time. The vertically averaged temperature (TAV) over the upper 100 m of the ocean is calculated as the estimate of the heat content in the upper ocean.The TAV is cooler in the northwest region of the study area and warmer in the southeast in the annual and seasonal mean figures. The first EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) of anomalous TAV accounts for 41 % of the total variance for the period 1961-1973. The time function associated with it displays a significant interannual changes in the heat content, with 2-4 a oscillation period and associated with the ENSO events. During ENSO event TAV increases with the tendency of increasing towards equator along the basin. This anomalous states also exist in the water layers below 100 m depth. T     

Extraction of Intemal Tidal Currents from A Portion of Sea Current Profile

Internal tide is one of the major oceanic phenomena. Determination of internal tide is important for theoretical study and for ocean engineering research. As an inverse problem, extraction of internal tidal currenls from sea currents is diffi-cult. In this paper, a method is developed to extract internal tidal currents from a portion of the sea current profile based on the fact that the directions of internal tidal currents above and below the thermocline are inverse. Sea current data col-lected from the South China Sea is processed with this method. The internal tidal currents and the depth of the thermocline are successfully extracted. The depth of the thermocline determined is in good agreement with that measured in 1959.     

基于海面多普勒谱模型的海浪反演精度分析

Microwave remote sensing is one of the most useful methods for observing the ocean parameters. The Doppler frequency or interferometric phase of the radar echoes can be used for an ocean surface current speed retrieval,which is widely used in spaceborne and airborne radars. While the effect of the ocean currents and waves is interactional. It is impossible to retrieve the ocean surface current speed from Doppler frequency shift directly. In order to study the relationship between the ocean surface current speed and the Doppler frequency shift, a numerical ocean surface Doppler spectrum model is established and validated with a reference. The input parameters of ocean Doppler spectrum include an ocean wave elevation model, a directional distribution function, and wind speed and direction. The suitable ocean wave elevation spectrum and the directional distribution function are selected by comparing the ocean Doppler spectrum in C band with an empirical geophysical model function(CDOP). What is more, the error sensitivities of ocean surface current speed to the wind speed and direction are analyzed. All these simulations are in Ku band. The simulation results show that the ocean surface current speed error is sensitive to the wind speed and direction errors. With VV polarization, the ocean surface current speed error is about 0.15 m/s when the wind speed error is 2 m/s, and the ocean surface current speed error is smaller than 0.3 m/s when the wind direction error is within 20° in the cross wind direction.     

Numerical investigation of the effect of current on wave focusing

In the present study,a numerical wave tank is developed to simulate the nonlinear wave-current interactions based on High Order Spectral(HOS) method.The influences of current on wave focusing are investigated by use of numerical model.The current is assumed to be constant in space.Focused waves with different amplitudes and frequency spectra are simulated with and without current.The focused wave characteristics,such as surface elevation,the maximum crest and frequency spectrum,with different current are compared.The results show that the opposing current increases the maximum crest and the energy transform during wave focusing process,and vice versa for the following current.     

Wave Refraction-Diffraction in the Presence of a Current

-Wave refraction-diffraction due to a large ocean structure and topography in the presence of a 'current are studied numerically. The mathematical model is the mild-slope equation developed by Kirby (1984). This equation is solved using a finite and boundary element method. The physical domain is devid-ed into two regions: a slowly varying topography region and a constant water depth region. For waves propagating in the constant water depth region, without current interfering, the mild- slope equation is then reduced to the Helmholtz equation which is solved by boundary element method. In varying topography region, this equation will be solved by finite element method. Conservation of mass and energy flux of the fluid between these two regions is required for composition of these two numerical methods. The numerical scheme proposed here is capable of dealing with water wave problems of different water depths with the main characters of these two methods.     

FORECAST OF SEA ICE REGIME

It has been found that the sea-surface temperature and the characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the preceding months are closely related to the temperature and ice regime in winter months. This relationship is strikingly reflected over the strong ocean current regions and over the regions with quasi-permanent atmospheric center actions. It has also been shown that the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere is more pronounced over these regions. This relationship may offer a key for long-term forecasting of the sea-ice regime in winter. In addition, because there is an obvious instability, the stabilities of the correlation coefficients are analysed. In consideration of the fact that the formation of weather process changes with the variations of time scale, predictions for longer and shorter time scale processes are discussed separately.In conclusion, some forecasting results obtained and tests made in recent years are given.     

A model for prediction SST in limited region-Ⅱ. The model''s physical equation

-The model's physical equation is used to parameterize some subgrid-scale processes and physical processes in the present numerical model. The transmission and attenuation of the solar energy in the ocean are considered. A simple diagnostic equation for the cloud fractions k proposed on the basis of the humidities at the surface and the mid-troposphere. The parameterized formulae of both entrainment and Ekman pumping are improved.In the numerical integration, the treatment on damping the inertial oscillations is emphasized. The initialization and the objective analysis of the data which are necessary for the operational prediction will be presented in another paper.Results of SST prediction and some numerical experiments are given here. The model is computationally stable and successful in modelling the behaviors of the drift current and the mixed layer physics, and the AMD (absolute mean deviations) ≤1. 2℃ , RC (correlation coefficients ) ≥85% for 3-day forecasting.     

Dynamics of air-sea planetary boundary layer under the geostrophic momentum approximation condition

In this paper, the air-sea planetary boundary is divided into three layers. With the aid of geostrophic momentum approximation, wind and current profiles, surface wind, surface wind stress and Ekman pumpinii in the atmosphere as well as in the ocean affected by the atmospheric baroclini-city, stratification and nonlinear effects are investigated systematically for an ocean of infinite depth. Meanwhile, the characteristics of the air-sea interaction is analyzed.     

Three-D numerical simulation of wind-driven current and density current in the Beibu Gulf

The Beibu Gulf circulation plays an imPOrtant role in the long--term water rnass transportinside the gulf. It is also closely related to the Guangxi untal water mass transport and self-purification. Hence, it is of practical imPOrtance to study the circulation in the gUlf. The cir-culation in the gUlf is very comlicated, and is rnainly gOverned by wind, water density gradi-ent, the current outside the gulf and the bathpoetry. In spring, a cold water rnass generatesln the center of the gulf…     

Nolinear waves and their barotropic stability in the tropical ocean and atmosphere

In this paper, the nonlinear waves and their barotropic stability in the tropical ocean and atmosphere are studied with the qualitative theory of the ordinary differential equation. The relationship is derived between the stability of nonlinear waves with different frequencies and the basic currents and their horizontal shear in the tropical ocean and atmosphere.     

Numerical study on residual current and its impact on mass transport in the Hangzhou Bay and the Changjiang Estuary Ⅰ.A3-D joint model of the Hangzhou Bay and the Changjiang Estuary

A 3-D numerical model is set up in a large domain covering the Hang zhou Bay and the Changjiang Estuary based on the ECOM model in orthogonal curvilinear coordinates.The numerical schemes for baroclinic pressure gradient (BPG) terms and convective terms are improved in the paper according to the characteristics of velocity field and mass transport in the area.The model is validated by the simulations of residual current and salinity transport in the Hangzhou Bay and the Changjiang Estuary.     

A New model to forecast fishing ground of Scomber japonicus in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China's mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature(SST), gradient of the sea surface temperature(GSST), sea surface height(SSH) and geostrophic velocity(GV), we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve(AUC) attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.     

Evaluation of the simulation capability of the Wavewatch Ⅲ model for Pacific Ocean wave

Wave climate analysis and other applications for the Pacific Ocean require a reliable wave hindcast. Five source and sink term packages in the Wavewatch III model(v3.14 and v4.18) are compared and assessed in this study through comprehensive observations, including altimeter significant wave height, advanced synthetic aperture radar swell, and buoy wave parameters and spectrum. In addition to the evaluation of typically used integral parameters, the spectra partitioning method contributes to the detailed wave system and wave maturity validation. The modified performance evaluation method(PS) effectively reduces attribute numbers and facilitates the overall assessment. To avoid possible misleading results in the root mean square error-based validations, another indicator called HH(indicating the two authors) is also calculated to guarantee the consistency of the results. The widely used Tolman and Chalikov(TC) package is still generally efficient in determining the integral properties of wave spectra but is physically deficient in explaining the dissipation processes. The ST4 package performs well in overall wave parameters and significantly improves the accuracy of wave systems in the open ocean. Meanwhile, the newly published ST6 package is slightly better in determining swell energy variations. The two packages(ACC350 and BJA) obtained from Wavewatch III v3.14 exhibit large scatters at different sea states. The three most ideal packages are further examined in terms of reproducing waveinduced momentum flux from the perspective of transport. Stokes transport analysis indicates that ST4 is the closest to the NDBC-buoy-spectrum-based transport values, and TC and ST6 tend to overestimate and underestimate the transport magnitude, respectively, in swell mixed areas. This difference must be considered,particularly in air–wave–current coupling research and upper ocean analysis. The assessment results provide guidance for the selection of ST4 for use in a background Pacific Ocean hindcast for high wave climate research and China Sea swell type analysis.     

Towards the understanding from sea surface to hadal zone—A multidisciplinary study of the Yap Trench

The water column in the open ocean can be divided into epipelagic(photic),mesopelagic,bathyal,abyssal and hadal zones by depth.In recent years,more and more research has been focusing on the marine environment below photic zone,especially the deep ocean.Oceanic trenches are considered as the deepest part of the ocean,providing ideal places for studying the physical,chemical,biological,and geological aspects of the marine environment from sea surface to the deep sea fl oor.However,limited by the high diffi culty to access and high cost in exploration,our understanding about oceanic trenches is still limited.Recently,with the development of series of manned and unmanned submersibles,we now have more opportunities to study the trench area.     

The effect of internal tides on the vertical structure of tidal current in the North Huanghai Sea

The tidal current is generally predominant in China's offshore areas. The vertical structure of the observedtidal current is quite complicated with the presence of seasonal thermocline. The observed tidal current may be divided into two parts, an averaged barotropic tide current and a variation tide current. A method for studying the vertical structure of tidal current is developed from the constitution and distribution of energy, and the vertical structure of the observed tide current in the North Huanghai Sea is studied on the basis of the method. The result shows that the reason why the energy of the tidal current is concentrated on the neighbourhood of the thermocline mainly lies in the internal tides i under certain conditions, the fact that the direction of the internal tide current above the thermocline is opposite to the one below the thermocline will be able to cause the rotary directions of the observed tidal current above and below the thermocline to be in opposite. The interaction between th     

Research on the short-term fishery forecasting of Spanish mackerel (Scomberomerus niphonius)

-This paper presents the use of the hydrographic factors in short-term fishery forecasting of the spawning migration stock of the Spanish mackerel and salinity describes more concretely the correlativity of water temperature, salinity and air temperature with the fishing season in spring. The data have been collected from the hydrographic environmental investigation at the fixed position on the sea and the telegraph recordings of the drift net operation in the spring fishing season during the period of April and May from 1972 to 1980. The correlation coefficients of various factors with the data of the fishing season have been calculated by using the monadic regression method.The main reference targets of the forecasting are: (1) By using the upper-layer water temperature as the forecasting factor at the beginning of the fishing season, the accuracy is high; (2) the distribution and location of the isotherm of the upper-layer water at 10°C at the beginning of April are used as an important factor for d     

Numerical simulation of the tropical Pacific response to equatorial wind stress anomalies

The results of the tropical Pacific response to the sudden onset of the equatorial wind stress anomalies are discussed. The ocean model is a barotropic, non-linearized one that includes reduced-gravity and an equation for the temperature of the ocean mixed-layer. The experiments are based on a state of equilibrium reached through a long running under the action of annual mean wind stress. There are two kinds of westward wind intensity regions: the whole tropical Pacific and the western tropical Pacific, which are all between latitude 6. 8癗 and 6. 8癝.In these cases, the results show that the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Eastern Pacific and the negative SST anomalies in the Western Pacific are produced, and the positive SST anomalies propagate eastward, just as those observed during the actual El Nino phenomena. The propagations of the Kelvin waves and Rossby waves in the ocean are discussed.Another experiment is also carried out in simulating the process of the decay of El Ni     

A study of SAR remote sensing of internal solitary waves in the north of the South China Sea: Ⅰ. Simulation of internal tide transformation

For settlement of the well-known problem of contemporary radar imaging models, i. e. , the problem of a general underestimation of radar signatures of hydrodynamic features over oceanic internal waves and underwater bottom topography in tidal waters at high radar frequency bands （ X-band and C-band）, the impact of the ocean surface mixed layer turbulence and the significance of strat- ified oceanic model on SAR remote sensing of internal solitary waves are proposed. In the north of the South China Sea by utilizing some observed data of background field the nonlinearity coefficient, the dispersion coefficient, the horizontal variability coefficient and the phase speed in the generalized K-dV equation are determined approximately. Through simulations of internal tide transfor- mation the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the vertical displacement and horizontal velocity of internal wave field are obtained. The simulation results indicate that the maximum amplitudes of internal solitary waves occur at depth 35 m, but the maximum current speeds take place at depth 20 m in this area of the sea （about 20°30＇N, 114°E） in August. It was noticed that considering the effects of flood current and ebb current respectively is appropriate to investigate influence of the background shear flow on coefficients of the K-dV equation. The obtained results provide the possibility for the simulation of SAR signatures of internal solitary waves under considering the impact of ocean surface mixed layer turbulence in the companion paper.