Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in North Carolina

Trends in the Atlantic tropical cyclones and the cyclones that had tracks through North Carolina were analyzed for more than 100 years. From about 1970, there appears to be an increase in the mean number of storms developing. The number of storms affecting North Carolina each decade has been increasing since the 1960s. In the 1980s, 1990s, and into the 2000s, there was an increase in the number of landfalling storms in North Carolina. Although August and September are the most active months of the Atlantic hurricane season, the hurricane season for North Carolina peaks in September. Wind distribution and frictional convergence associated with landfalling hurricanes in North Carolina are discussed. Convection and precipitation patterns of landfalling hurricanes are presented. Two examples of the effect of spatial surface moisture distribution on intensification of tropical cyclones over land after landfall are discussed.     

A review of the climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf hurricanes for wind, wave, and surge hazard estimation

The climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are presented, focusing on the basic parameters needed for accurately determining the structure and intensity of hurricanes for ocean response models. These include the maximum sustained wind, radius of maximum winds, the Holland-B parameter, the peripheral or far-field pressure, the surface roughness and coefficient of drag, and the central pressure for historical hurricanes in the Gulf.Despite evidence of a slight increase in the annual number of named storms over the past 50 years, presently there is no statistically significant trend in tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the long-term variability of tropical cyclones in the Gulf reflects the observed variability in the Atlantic basin as a whole. Analyses of hurricane winds from multiple sources suggest the presence of a bias toward overestimating the strength of winds in the HURDAT dataset from 7% to 15%. Results presented comparing HURDAT with other sources also show an overestimation of intensity at landfall, with an estimated bias of ~10%.Finally, a review of recent studies has shown that hurricane frequencies and intensities appear to vary on a much more localized scale than previously believed. This exacerbates the sampling problem for accurate characterization of hurricane parameters for design and operational applications.     

Inertial oscillations as deep ocean response to hurricanes

We discuss the deep ocean response to passing hurricanes (aka typhoons), which are considered as generators of near-inertial, internal waves. The analysis of data collected in the northwestern parts of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in the hurricane season permit us to assess the deep ocean response to such a strong atmospheric forcing. A large number of moorings (more than 100) in the northwestern Pacific have allowed us to characterize the spatial features of the oceanic response to typhoons and the variable downward velocity of near-inertial wave propagation. The velocity of their downward propagation varies in the range 1–10 m/hour. It is higher in the regions of low stratification and high anticyclonic vorticity. The inertial oscillations generated by a hurricane last for 10–12 days. The mean anticyclonic vorticity in the region increases the effective frequency of inertial oscillations by 0.001–0.004 cyc/hour.     

考虑飓风过程非平稳性的沿海地区飓风灾害评估

飓风等自然灾害的发生会对沿海地区造成巨大的社会、经济损失,因此有必要合理评估这些区域的建筑在飓风作用下的灾害。已有研究指出,全球气候变暖会影响未来飓风的强度和发生频率。本文考虑飓风发生（随机）过程的非平稳性,提出了沿海地区飓风灾害评估的新方法。用非齐次泊松过程来描述飓风的发生,并用时变的统计参数（均值、标准差）来反映飓风强度的变化。在此基础上,给出了累积飓风灾害的均值、方差的显式公式。选取美国佛罗里达州迈阿密县进行案例分析,研究了飓风过程非平稳性对累积灾害的影响。     

9711号北上台风演变及暴雨过程的位涡诊断分析

通过对 971 1号台风登陆北上穿过山东造成山东特大暴雨过程的湿位涡的分析 ,并从湿位涡的角度研究了台风演变及山东特大暴雨的形成机制 ,揭示了冷空气在台风演变及暴雨过程中的重要作用。结果表明 :倾斜涡度发展是暴雨产生和台风加强的重要机制之一 ,暴雨产生在 θe线陡立密集区内 ;湿位涡在这次暴雨过程中对流层低层具有 MPV1 <0 ,MPV2 >0的特征 ,此次暴雨产生在负的MPV1等值线密集区中 ;对流层上部及平流层下部高位涡的下传使得低层斜压性增大 ,引起低层的对流稳定度减小 ,促使气旋性涡度发展 ,有利于位势不稳定能量的释放 ,使得暴雨增幅 ,导致台风的加强并演变为温带气旋。     

超强台风桑美(0608)在残涡卷入后突然增强的数值模拟

利用中国气象局整编的CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对2006年超强台风桑美(Saomai)在我国近海的突然增强过程进行诊断分析,结果表明:在Saomai突然增强过程中,总涡度收支在高层首先开始增加,接着中层涡度开始增加并逐渐向低层伸展,当高层涡度由增大转为减小,中低层涡度都转为增大时,Saomai趋于突然增强。在Saomai突然增强过程中,在对流层中低层,涡度平流项贡献最大,这与同期活动在西太平洋洋面上Saomai西侧的热带气旋宝霞(Bopha)有密切联系。进而利用中尺度模式WRF_ARW V 3.3进行数值模拟,结果表明:在Saomai西侧,Bopha的气旋性环流并入Saomai后,Bopha减弱而Saomai突然增强,Bopha残涡(remnant)正涡度带的卷入是Saomai在我国近海突然增强的重要原因。     

A hydrodynamics-based surge scale for hurricanes

Record hurricane surges over the last several years have demonstrated the need for an improved surge hazard warning scale for hurricanes. Here, a simple hydrodynamics-based surge scale for hurricane surge hazard is presented. This surge scale incorporates readily available meteorological information along with regional-scale bathymetry into a single measure of expected surge levels at the coast. We further outline an approach for estimating expected flood inundation and damages based on the alongshore extent of high surges during hurricanes. Comparisons between this new surge scale and historical hurricane observations show a measurable improvement over existing surge indices, including the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is anticipated that the proposed surge scale will improve public awareness of surge hazard and assist governments in communicating critical decisions regarding evacuation and emergency response.     

2006年6月北大西洋上热带风暴Alberto变性后爆发性发展机理分析

本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)的ERA5客观再分析资料、气象卫星合作研究所(Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies,CIMSS)...     

The importance of extratropical and tropical cyclones on the short-term evolution of barrier islands along the northern Gulf of Mexico, USA

Data are presented indicating the complexity and highly variable response of beaches to cold front passages along the northern Gulf of Mexico, in addition to the impacts of tropical cyclones and winter storms. Within the past decade, an increase in the frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes impacting the northern Gulf has dramatically altered the long-term equilibrium of a large portion of this coast. A time series of net sediment flux for subaerial and nearshore environments has been established for a section of this coast in Florida, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi. The data incorporate the morphological signature of six tropical storms/hurricanes and more than 200 frontal passages.

Data indicate that (1) barrier islands can conserve mass during catastrophic hurricanes (e.g., Hurricane Opal, a strong category 4 hurricane near landfall); (2) less severe hurricanes and tropical storms can promote rapid dune aggradation and can contribute sediment to the entire barrier system; (3) cold fronts play a critical role in the poststorm adjustment of the barrier by deflating the subaerial portion of the overwash terrace and eroding its marginal lobe along the bayside beach through locally generated, high frequency, steep waves; and (4) barrier systems along the northern Gulf do not necessarily enter an immediate poststorm recovery phase, although nested in sediment-rich nearshore environments. While high wave energy conditions associated with cold fronts play an integral role in the evolution and maintenance of barriers along the northern Gulf, these events are more effective in reworking sediment after the occurrence of extreme events such as hurricanes. This relationship is even more apparent during the clustering of tropical cyclones.

It is anticipated that these findings will have important implications for the longer term evolution of barrier systems in midlatitude, microtidal settings where the clustering of storms is apparent, and winter storms are significant in intensity and frequency along the coast.     

Growth modelling indicates hurricanes and severe storms are linked to low coral recruitment in the Caribbean

This study set out to test the hypothesis that hurricanes and tropical storms limit the recruitment and subsequent survival of massive non-branching corals on the barrier reef off the coast of Belize in the Gulf of Honduras. Overall, the surface areas of 523 individual coral specimens were measured, and recruitment dates were then modelled. There was no significant difference in coral cover or coral biodiversity between any of the sites studied (p > 0.1). There were significant differences in non-branching coral recruitment in years when hurricanes impacted the area (p < 0.05) compared with years when no hurricanes impacted the area. There were significantly more non-branching massive corals recruited in non-hurricane years (mean 7.7) than in hurricane years (mean 3.8; p = 0.011). When years with tropical storms are added to the years with hurricanes, there was significantly lower coral recruitment (mean 4.7) relative to non-storm or hurricane years (mean 7.4; p = 0.019). These results show that hurricanes and severe storms limited the recruitment and survival of massive non-branching corals of the Mesoamerican barrier reef and on patch reefs near the Belize coast in the Caribbean, and suggests that marine park managers may need to assist coral recruitment in years where there are hurricanes or severe storms.     

Long-term regional hurricane hazard analysis for wind and storm surge

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the long-term regional hurricane wind and storm surge hazard. The output is a relatively small set of hurricane scenarios that together represent the regional hazard. For each scenario, the method produces a hazard-consistent annual occurrence probability, and wind speeds and surge levels throughout the study area. These scenarios can be used for subsequent evacuation or loss estimation modeling. This optimization-based probabilistic scenario (OPS) method involves first simulating tens of thousands of candidate hurricane scenarios with wind speeds and approximate surge depths. A mixed-integer linear optimization is then used to select a subset of scenarios and assign hazard-consistent annual occurrence probabilities to each. Finally, a surge model is used to estimate accurate surge depths for the reduced set of events. The method considers the correlation between winds and surge depths and the spatial correlations of each; it is computationally efficient; and it makes explicit the tradeoff between the number of scenarios selected and the errors introduced by using a reduced set of events. A case study for Eastern North Carolina is presented in which a final set of 97 hurricanes provides unbiased results with errors small enough for many practical uses.     

热带东风中经向扰动与纬向扰动的非线性相互作用

根据非线性的动量方程,利用多时间尺度分析方法,探讨由经向扰动与纬向扰动相互作用在热带东风中所造成的一类正压不稳定。分析表明:在零级近似下,给出了两个扰动传播的频率表达式,在一级近似下,得到了两个零级扰动振幅的解析表达式。鉴于方程中散度项的存在,当不同尺度的三个波相作用而发生共振时,仅总动能守恒,而总位拟能不守恒,这一点与无辐散大气的结论不同。两种扰动动能相互转换的机制则是涡度场与散度场的相互作用。     

Sealevel changes associated with hurricane “Gloria”

Gloria was a fast-moving, intense hurricane that grazed the North Carolina coastline in September, 1985. The resulting storm surge was measured remotely using a telephone-linked wave data system as well as a local tide gage. The surge was hindcast using the model of Jelesnianski (1967) which was developed for shore-parallel storm tracks. The agreement with measurement was quite satisfactory. The data suggest extremely rapid rise times for the peak surge of hurricanes moving at high speed along the coast.     

LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE HURRICANE FORMATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

A contrasting study of the large-scale circulation features responsible for months or seasons with many hurricanes and those with few hurricanes has revealed that the frequency of hurricane formation over the North Atlantic Ocean is enhanced by the following conditions:There exists a well-developed subtropical high-pressure belt displaced to the north; a deep Icelandic low; a stronger-than-normal polar vortex with a deep polar trough dipping far southward along the eastern part of the United States; a dominant high-pressure ridge over western Canada and the United States; and a jet stream displaced northward over these regions. At 200 hPa, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevails over the subtropical North Atlantic. A stronger-than-normal upper easterly flow prevails. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies prevailing on a seasonal or long-term basis tend to be favorable for the formation of hurricanes.     

Observations of the spectra of hurricane generated waves

An extensive database of one-dimensional spectra observed during the passage of hurricanes is examined. Spectra recorded within eight times the radius to maximum winds of the centers of hurricanes are unimodal and remarkably similar to previously recorded fetch limited spectra. Parametric spectral forms such as JONSWAP and that of Donelan et al. approximate the data well. In addition, the functional dependence of the spectral parameters α and γ on the inverse wave age is consistent with that observed under fetch limited conditions. It is concluded that the similarity of the hurricane wave spectra to those observed for simpler fetch limited spectra is largely due to the effects of nonlinear interactions. The shape stabilizing effects of the nonlinear interactions reshape spectra consisting of a mix of swell and wind-sea to conform with typical one-dimensional fetch limited wind-sea forms.     

The impact of the 2005 hurricane season on the Louisiana Artificial Reef Program

The 2005 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico was the worst in the history of offshore production, with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroying 110 oil and gas structures and eight mobile offshore drilling units. Infrastructure destroyed by accident or natural catastrophe are decommissioned according to the same federal regulations that guide normal decommissioning operations, but depending on the nature of the destruction and the market conditions in the months following the event, special conditions and delays may occur. Historically, offshore infrastructure destroyed by hurricanes or other unusual circumstances have been considered for inclusion in the Louisiana Artificial Reef Program (LARP) under the Special Artificial Reef Site (SARS) category. The purpose of this paper is to review the impact of the 2005 hurricane season on the LARP and the current status of the SARS program. We examine the criteria employed in project evaluation and approval as well as aggregate program statistics. The characteristics and risks associated with decommissioning destroyed infrastructure are also described. At the end of 2006, 10 projects representing 35 platforms destroyed in the 2005 hurricane season have been approved as SARS in the Gulf of Mexico, effectively doubling the number of sites and structures classified as SARS.     

Hurricanes and coral bleaching linked to changes in coral recruitment in Tobago

Knowledge of coral recruitment patterns helps us understand how reefs react following major disturbances and provides us with an early warning system for predicting future reef health problems. We have reconstructed and interpreted historical and modern-day recruitment patterns, using a combination of growth modelling and in situ recruitment experiments, in order to understand how hurricanes, storms and bleaching events have influenced coral recruitment on the Caribbean coastline of Tobago. Whilst Tobago does not lie within the main hurricane belt results indicate that regional hurricane events negatively impact coral recruitment patterns in the Southern Caribbean. In years following hurricanes, tropical storms and bleaching events, coral recruitment was reduced when compared to normal years (p = 0.016). Following Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and the 2005–2006 bleaching event, coral recruitment was markedly limited with only 2% (n = 6) of colonies estimated to have recruited during 2006 and 2007. Our experimental results indicate that despite multiple large-scale disturbances corals are still recruiting on Tobago’s marginal reef systems, albeit in low numbers.     

CFD simulation of flow features and vorticity structures in tuna-like swimming

The theoretical research on the propulsive principle of aquatic animal becomes more important and attracted more researchers to make efforts on it.In the present study,a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation of a three-dimensional traveling-wave undulations body of tuna has been developed to investigate the fluid flow features and vorticity structures around this body when moving in a straight line.The undulation only takes place in the posterior half of the fish,and the tuna-tail is considered as a lunate fin oscillating with the mode combined swaying with yawing.A Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation is developed,employing a control-volume method and a k-omega SST turbulent model;meanwhile an unstructured tetrahedral grid,which is generated for the three-dimensional geometry,is used based on the deformation of the hind parts of the body and corresponding movement of the tail.We calculated the hydrodynamic performance of tuna-like body when a tuna swims in a uniform velocity,and compared the input power coefficient,output power coefficient and propulsive efficiency of the oscillating tuna-tail with or without body vortex shedding.Additionally,the load distribution on the body,flow features and vorticity structures around the body were demonstrated.The effect of interaction between the body-generated vortices and the tail-generated vorticity on the hydrodynamic performance can be obtained.     

Fundamental study on the tidal residual circulation,II

The tidal residual circulation in a bay was investigated by means of a hydraulic model experiment. In addition to the experiment in the previous paper, some other experiments were carried out to study the effect of external parameters to the tidal residual flow. The ratio of the kinetic energy of tidal residual flows to that of tidal currents in the bay depends on the Reynolds number. With the training wall at the mouth, the vorticity transfer from the tidal current to the tidal residual flow sharply decreases. As a result the remarkable tidal residual circulation in the bay does not occur.