Time of concentration: a paradox in modern hydrology

Abstract

The time of concentration is a primary parameter for a variety of modern hydrological models adopted in professional and scientific communities. Nevertheless, a universally accepted working definition of this parameter is currently lacking and several definitions can be found in the technical literature along with related estimation procedures. This study brings to light the inherent variability of these definitions through the empirical analysis of four small basins. These case studies demonstrate that available approaches for the estimation of the time of concentration may yield numerical predictions that differ from each other by up to 500%.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Grimaldi, S., Petroselli, A., Tauro, F. and Porfiri, M., 2012. Time of concentration: a paradox in modern hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 217–228.     

Estimating time parameters of overland flow on impervious surfaces by the particle tracking method

Abstract

Travel time and time of concentration T_c are important time parameters in hydrological designs. Although T_c is the time for the runoff to travel to the outlet from the most remote part of the catchment, most researchers have used an indirect method such as hydrograph analysis to estimate T_c. A quasi two-dimensional diffusion wave model with particle tracking for overland flow was developed to determine the travel time, and validated for runoff discharges, velocities, and depths. Travel times for 85%, 95% and 100% of particles arrival at the outlet of impervious surfaces (i.e. T_t85, T_t95, and T_t100) were determined for 530 model runs. The correlations between these travel times and T_c estimated from hydrograph analysis showed a significant agreement between T_c and T_t85. All the travel times showed nonlinear relationships with the input variables (plot length, slope, roughness coefficient, and effective rainfall intensity) but showed linear relationships with each other.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi     

Pumped rainfall simulators: the impact of rain pulses on sediment concentration and size

Many pumped rainfall simulators used in soil erosion studies use pulsed rain to control the rainfall intensity. We examined the effect of the rain pulsing on sediment concentration and size using three different pulse cycles with the same rainfall intensity. There was considerable variation in sediment concentration through the pulse cycle: the highest concentration was up to four times that of the lowest concentration. Furthermore, the particle size distribution also varied: the peak median particle size was double the lowest median particle size. The magnitude of differences in sediment concentration and particle size were greater the longer the pulse cycle and these dynamics will vary between rainfall simulators and studies. We suggest the impact of the pulsing on sediment is significant and should be investigated prior to experimentation so that sampling periods are designed to avoid bias introduced by fine temporal scale sediment dynamics. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Travel time controls the magnitude of nitrate discharge in groundwater bypassing the riparian zone to a stream on Virginia's coastal plain

Groundwater that bypasses the riparian zone by travelling along deep flow paths may deliver high concentrations of fertilizer‐derived NO₃^? to streams, or it may be impacted by the NO₃^? removal process of denitrification in streambed sediments. In a study of a small agricultural catchment on the Atlantic coastal plain of Virginia's eastern shore, we used seepage meters deployed in the streambed to measure specific discharge of groundwater and its solute concentrations for various locations and dates. We used values of Cl^? concentration to discriminate between bypass water recharged distal to the stream and that contained high NO₃^? but low Cl^? concentrations and riparian‐influenced water recharged proximal to the stream that contained low NO₃^? and high Cl^? concentrations. The travel time required for bypass water to transit the 30‐cm‐thick, microbially active denitrifying zone in the streambed determined the extent of NO₃^? removal, and hydraulic conductivity determined travel time through the streambed sediments. At all travel times greater than 2 days, NO₃^? removal was virtually complete. Comparison of the timescales for reaction and transport through the streambed sediments in this system confirmed that the predominant control on nitrate flux was travel time rather than denitrification rate coefficients. We conclude that extensive denitrification can occur in groundwater that bypasses the riparian zone, but a residence time in biologically active streambed sediments sufficient to remove a large fraction of the NO₃^? is only achieved in relatively low‐conductivity porous media. Instead of viewing them as separate, the streambed and riparian zone should be considered an integrated NO₃^? removal unit. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating debris-flow and anthropogenic disturbance on 10Be concentration in mountain drainage basins: implications for functional connectivity and denudation rates across time scales

We examine the sensitivity of ¹⁰Be concentrations (and derived denudation rates), to debris-flow and anthropogenic perturbations in steep settings of the Eastern Alps, and explore possible relations with structural geomorphic connectivity. Using cosmogenic ¹⁰Be as a tracer for functional geomorphic connectivity, we conduct sampling replications across four seasons in Gadria, Strimm and Allitz Creek. Sampling sites encompass a range of structural connectivity configurations, including the conditioning of a sackung, all assessed through a geomorphometric index (IC). By combining information on contemporary depth of erosion and sediment yield, disturbance history and post-LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) sedimentation rates, we constrain the effects of debris-flow disturbance on ¹⁰Be concentrations at the Gadria sites. Here, we argue that bedrock weakening imparted by the sackung promotes high depth of erosion. Consequently, debris flows recruit sediment beyond the critical depth of spallogenic production (e.g., >3 m), which in turn, episodically, due to predominantly muogenic production pathways, lowers ¹⁰Be concentration by a factor of 4, for at least 2 years. In contrast, steady erosion in Strimm Creek yields very stable ¹⁰Be concentrations through time. In Allitz Creek, we observe two- to fourfold seasonal fluctuations in ¹⁰Be concentrations, which we explain as the combined effects of water diversion and hydraulic structures on sediment mixing. We further show that ¹⁰Be concentration correlates inversely with the IC index, where sub-basins characterized by high concentrations (long residence times) exhibit low IC values (structurally disconnected) and vice versa, implying that, over millennial time scales a direct relation exists between functional and structural connectivity, and that the IC index performed as a suitable metric for structural connectivity. The index performs comparably better than other metrics (i.e., mean slope and mean normalized channel steepness index) previously used to assess topographic controls on denudation rates in active unglaciated ranges. In terms of landscape evolution, we argue that the sackung, by favouring intense debris-flow activity across the Holocene, has aided rapid postglacial reshaping of the Gadria basin, which currently exhibits a topographic signature characteristic of unglaciated debris-flow systems. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the variability of the sediment concentration in currents on steep slopes: a simplified approach

Based on the analysis of the results of flume experiments and on a simplified theoretical approach, a formula is proposed for the evaluation of the total solid load in a water–sediment current. The obtained results show that the sediment concentration of the water–sediment currents gradually varies from the typical values of bed load to those typical of debris flows, even when the clay concentration in the whole current is not negligible in comparison with the total solid load. The proposed simplified approach confirms the theoretical results obtained by the application of more complex rheological models. Besides the proposed theoretical interpretation of the laboratory experimental results seems to confirm a unified view of the different types of solid transport, that has been presented elsewhere.     

Estimation of canopy drying time after rainfall using sap flow measurements in an emergent tree in a lowland mixed‐dipterocarp forest in Sarawak,Malaysia

This study emphasizes the importance of canopy drying time (CDT) after rainfall in a lowland tropical rain forest. In this study, we estimate CDT using sap flow velocities measured by a heat‐pulse method in an emergent tree in a lowland mixed‐dipterocarp forest. Estimated CDT (ECDT) for each rain event has been defined as the time from rainfall cessation to the specific time derived from the difference between diurnal courses of sap flow velocities on a rainy day versus bright days. ECDT could be derived for 22 rain events that were grouped into two types, depending on whether rainfall ceased before or after noon. The ECDTs were distributed more widely and with greater values when rainfall ceased before noon (Type 1) than after noon (Type 2). The ECDTs of both Type 1 and Type 2 decreased with increases in net radiation (Rn) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) after rainfall. This result shows that ECDT is determined mainly by post‐rainfall evaporation rates. The sap flow velocity as a detector of canopy wetness worked out well because of the specific rainfall characteristics at this site. The practical limitations of the method using sap flow velocities are discussed in relation to rainfall characteristics and time lags between transpirations and sap flow velocities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake: a review

The procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake can be determined is reviewed in the light of the recent advances. This can be achieved by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area. To apply this general procedure, we need two important elements: first, to know when we should start the analysis, i.e., set the natural time equal to zero. This is the time at which the system enters the critical stage. Second a reliable estimation of the candidate epicentral area. If geoelectrical measurements are taken and the VAN method (after the initials of the three researchers Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos) is applied, both these elements become available upon the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity, because its initiation marks the time when the system enters the critical stage, and in addition the SES data enable the determination of the epicentral area of the impending mainshock. On the other hand, if geoelectrical data are lacking, we make use of the following two recent findings by means of natural time analysis: First, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity in a large area exhibit a minimum a few months before a major earthquake almost simultaneously with the initiation of an SES activity. Second, a spatiotemporal study of this minimum unveils an estimate of the epicentral area of the impending major earthquake. Two examples are given that refer to the strongest earthquakes that occurred in Greece and Japan during the last 3 decades, i.e., the M _W6.9 earthquake in southwestern Greece on 14 February 2008 and the M _W9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan on 11 March 2011.     

Confidence interval of real‐time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM‐RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy)

This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution q_for between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution q_for which, in turn, is set up by associating to each q_for the q_opt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the q_for values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the q_opt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for q_for is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of q_for made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

桩基无损质量检测中瞬态锤击法时域曲线的分析与研究

瞬态锤击法在桩基无损质量检测中是一种简便有效的方法。文中探讨了这种方法的基本原理,对时域曲线判读中的一些基本规律和影响因素进行了相应的讨论,并列举了工程实例。     

Impact of model simplifications on soil erosion predictions: application of the GLUE methodology to a distributed event‐based model at the hillslope scale

In this paper, we analyse how the performance and calibration of a distributed event‐based soil erosion model at the hillslope scale is affected by different simplifications on the parameterizations used to compute the production of suspended sediment by rainfall and runoff. Six modelling scenarios of different complexity are used to evaluate the temporal variability of the sedimentograph at the outlet of a 60 m long cultivated hillslope. The six scenarios are calibrated within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation framework in order to account for parameter uncertainty, and their performance is evaluated against experimental data registered during five storm events. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, percent bias and coverage performance ratios show that the sedimentary response of the hillslope in terms of mass flux of eroded soil can be efficiently captured by a model structure including only two soil erodibility parameters, which control the rainfall and runoff production of suspended sediment. Increasing the number of parameters makes the calibration process more complex without increasing in a noticeable manner the predictive capability of the model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

边坡地震稳定性分析探讨

传统的拟静力法和安全系数时程分析法在评价边坡地震稳定性时存在一定的局限性。在提出准确的评价边坡地震稳定性必需因素的基础上,建议对边坡地震稳定性分析方法重新进行分类。根据动力分析得到的边坡在地震作用下的破坏机制和破裂面的性质和位置,提出基于拉-剪破坏的动力时程分析法和强度折减动力分析法。第一种方法将FLAC计算得到破坏时刻的动应力施加到静力情况下边坡上,采用动力分析得到的拉-剪破裂面,结合极限平衡法求解边坡地震安全系数,是一种改进的动力有限元时程分析法;第二种方法考虑了拉-剪破坏的FLAC强度折减动力分析法,是完全动力的方法。最后通过算例分析验证了新方法的可行性,为边坡地震安全系数计算提供了一种新的思路。     

Study of hydrological processes by the combination of environmental tracing and hill slope measurements: application on the Haute‐Mentue catchment

The objective of this research is to improve the comprehension of the hydrological behaviour of natural catchments. The main originality of this work is to associate different types of measurement in order to obtain a better vision of hydrological processes responsible for streamflow generation. First, the hydrological behaviour is studied at the catchment scale by the application of environmental tracing. A three‐component mixing model based on the silica and calcium concentrations of water allows one to distinguish the contributions of direct precipitation, soil water and groundwater during flood generation. Despite the different hydrological responses observed between the four subcatchments studied, a common behaviour is apparent. Soil contribution increases with a rise in the basin humidity. The subsurface water dominates the generation of major floods, which occur in wet conditions. In order to discover the processes responsible for the important soil water contributions, a large‐scale time‐domain reflectometry experiment (64 probes) was conducted. On the whole, this experiment indicates that the water flow in soil is spatially quite heterogeneous and depends on local properties. Macropore flows were clearly identified during a rainfall simulator experiment. Preferential flows may be responsible for the important contribution of soil water and the heterogeneity of the soil moisture. In order to test this hypothesis, a dye‐tracing experiment was done. This new investigation confirms that an important part of soil water reaches the stream by preferential flows. So as to synthesize all these observations, a conceptual model is proposed. This model respects both the hydrochemical responses highlighted by the environmental tracing experiment and the observations done at the local scale. This conceptual model suggests that the important contribution of soil water is due to the extent of the hydrographic network and the role of preferential flows. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of nutrient management and decrease in paddy field area on groundwater nitrate concentration: a case study at the Nasunogahara alluvial fan,Tochigi Prefecture,Japan

In order to help evaluate the trends in the NO₃-N concentration in groundwater with a view to preventing further degradation in water quality in the future, a distributed groundwater quality model was constructed for the Nasunogahara basin. The best fit for the groundwater table elevations by the flow component of the model was achieved with average mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 0·92 m for the calibration period and 0·83 m for the validation period. Moreover, the best fit for the NO₃-N concentration by the water quality component was achieved with average mean relative errors (MREs) of 29·8% for the calibration period and 30·3% for the validation period. After developing a robust model, various change scenarios were tested; specifically, the effects of effluent load control and a decrease in paddy field area on the NO₃-N concentration in groundwater were predicted. The most intensively farmed area contributed about 40% of the total effluent load because of livestock farming in the basin. When the effluent load from this area was decreased by 50%, the average NO₃-N concentrations at sites S1, S2 and S3 were reduced by about 15%; however, the average concentrations at S4 and S5 were reduced by only 1%. Furthermore, when the total effluent load from the concentrated livestock area was removed completely, the average groundwater NO₃-N concentrations at S1, S2 and S3 were reduced by about 30% as compared with the original calculated results. In contrast, decreasing the area of the paddy fields in the basin did not greatly influence the groundwater NO₃-N concentration. In the case of a 70% reduction in paddy field area, average NO₃-N concentrations increased by about 7% at S1, S2 and S3. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.