1961-2009年辽河流域气候变化特征及其对水资源的影响

辽河流域是我国七大流域之一,长期以来一直存在水资源严重不足的问题。采用1961-2009年辽河流域境内水文、气象观测数据,研究气象、水文要素历史变化特征,并采用同期和滞后相关分析,建立气象要素与水文要素的最优相关关系。结果表明：辽河流域气候变暖明显,增温幅度远高于全球和中国的同期增温幅度;辽河流域降水量增减趋势不明显,总体上为略减少趋势,但存在明显的少-多-少-多-少5个阶段性变化。辽河流域蒸发量为略减少趋势,春季、夏季是蒸发量较大季节;辽河流域近50年来径流量为减少趋势,经历了偏多-偏少-偏多-偏少4个阶段的变化,最近的1996-2009年经历了年径流量最少阶段,平均年径流量仅为16.2亿 m³,只达到多年平均径流量的58 %、径流量最多年代的32 %。7月、8月是流量最为集中的月份,2个月流量就占到全年的50.24 %,超过全年的一半;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系。在年尺度,径流量与铁岭、法库等周边地区相关系数基本达到0.6左右;在日尺度,日降水量与降水发生后第二日流量相关程度最好,在所有等级上两者相关系数均在0.7以上,在日降水量大于等于25 mm等级上,相关系数最高可达到0.85。     

1961—2009年辽河流域水文气象要素变化特征

依据1961—2009年辽河流域5个气象观测站点逐日降水和气温观测资料,运用非参数检验方法（Mann-Kendall法）,对辽河流域降水和气温的变化趋势进行了分析。利用2006—2010年夏季共162d降水日的铁岭站日降水量与铁岭水文站径流量资料,探讨了日降水量与径流量之间的相关关系。结果表明：辽河流域年降水量减少趋势明显,降水量偏少年份明显增加,其主要原因为占全年降水量65%的夏季降水以7.4 mm/10 a的气候趋势倾向率递减,呈现出明显的减少趋势;辽河流域的年平均气温是在波动中逐渐上升的,且升温趋势明显,春季呈明显的升温趋势,夏季略有下降,秋季变化不大,冬季是气温上升最明显的季节;日降水量与径流量存在正相关关系,且日降水量与降水第二日的径流量相关显著。     

1961-2005年嫩江流域右岸气候变化及对水资源的影响

利用累积距平法和气候倾向率对1961－2005年嫩江流域右岸气温、降水量和径流量资料进行分析,研究嫩江流域右岸气候变化及其对水资源的影响。结果表明：近45 a来嫩江流域右岸气温显著增高,平均以0.52 ℃/10 a的速率上升,而且四季均为上升趋势, 不同季节增温幅度以冬、春、秋、夏季依次递减,1986年以来为气温升高最显著的时段;降水变化可分为3个阶段： 1961－1982年降水量呈减少趋势,1982－1998年处于增加时期,1998年以来降水量又呈现减少趋势。夏季降水量变化趋势与年降水量变化趋势趋于一致, 降水量总趋势是在波动中微弱上升;嫩江流域右岸主要控制站年径流量与年降水量保持同步变化。     

华北地区气候变化及其对水资源的影响

根据华北地区近50年的气候、水资源、旱涝灾害面积等资料,对该地区的气候特点及变化趋势、水资源的变化规律与气候变化的相互关系、极端气候事件对水资源的影响及气候变化对农业旱涝的影响进行了分析,并在气候模式预测结果的基础上,简要分析了华北地区未来气候变化对水资源的可能影响,提出了相应的对策建议,从而为实现水资源可持续利用提供科学依据。     

青藏高原气候变化及其对水资源影响的研究进展

回顾总结了近20年、特别是近10年来青藏高原气候变化的特征、变化的原因及其对高原水资源的影响方面的最新研究进展。1960年以来青藏高原地区总体气温显著升高,升温趋势存在明显的海拔依赖性,温室气体、冰雪反照率反馈、云-水汽-辐射反馈、局地强迫等是影响高原气温上升具有海拔依赖性的重要因素。总体上青藏高原降水呈现增加趋势,变化的区域性和季节性差异比气温变化的时空差异更强;降水空间变化主要分为南北偶极型、东西偶极型、中部和边缘差异型和多元型;夏季降水增加最为显著。受气候变化和人为气溶胶排放等影响,青藏高原水资源特别是冰冻圈水资源发生剧烈的变化,大部分冰川加速退缩、冰川径流增加、湖泊严重扩张,导致青藏高原上水循环加强和气候偏暖湿化;青藏高原积雪的变化具有明显的年代际特征。最后提出未来需要进一步开展的研究方向和政策建议。     

洱海流域近50年气候变化特征及其对洱海水资源的影响

利用1961-2010年洱海流域的气候和洱海水资源等资料,统计分析了洱海流域气候变化特征及不同气候类型对洱海水资源量的影响,并建立了洱海水资源量与洱海流域降水量、气温的定量关系,对洱海水资源量进行定量估计.结果表明:近50年洱海流域气温呈波动上升趋势,气候变暖明显;21世纪的第一个10年是洱海流域近50年来最暖的10年.年降水量总体上呈减少趋势.洱海水资源量与年降水量之间有显著的正相关关系,而与气温呈明显的负相关关系.洱海流域气候类型在20世纪60和70年代以偏冷和偏湿为主,进入80年代后开始出现暖年,特别是21世纪的第一个10年,气候以偏暖和偏干为主,未出现过偏冷年.在偏干和偏暖的年份洱海水资源均为枯水年;而偏湿和偏冷的年份洱海水资源多为丰水年;气候正常的年份,洱海水资源多为正常.可根据洱海流域未来气候趋势的预测结果,分别通过气候类型及回归预测方程对洱海水资源的丰欠作定性的估计和定量的预测.     

气候变化对密云水库水资源的影响及其适应性管理对策

 密云水库近30 a入库水资源量日益减少,严重影响城市供水和可持续发展,其中气候变化对水资源的影响成为最受关注的问题之一。以海河流域密云水库的水资源供应为例,研究了气候变化对入库水资源的影响。结果表明：除SRES A2情景下在2025年入库流量减少外,其他情景均表现为入库流量增加。对入库流量增加的情景,采用\"零调整方案\",即不采取调整措施是可以的,但由于未来北京水资源压力较大,有必要采取一些综合对策。通过多目标条件分析,为解决北京的饮用水供应问题,建议采用开源（跨河流调水）、节流（水田改旱地）及污水治理三管齐下的方案。     

气候变化对密云水库水资源的影响及其适应性管理对策

密云水库近30 a入库水资源量日益减少,严重影响城市供水和可持续发展,其中气候变化对水资源的影响成为最受关注的问题之一。以海河流域密云水库的水资源供应为例,研究了气候变化对入库水资源的影响。结果表明：除SRES A2情景下在2025年入库流量减少外,其他情景均表现为入库流量增加。对入库流量增加的情景,采用\"零调整方案\",即不采取调整措施是可以的,但由于未来北京水资源压力较大,有必要采取一些综合对策。通过多目标条件分析,为解决北京的饮用水供应问题,建议采用开源（跨河流调水）、节流（水田改旱地）及污水治理三管齐下的方案。     

兰江流域近43年气候变化及对水资源的影响

利用累积距平法对兰江流域近43年（1961-2003年）气温、降水量和径流量资料进行分析,研究兰江流域气候变化及其气候变化对水资源的影响。结果显示：兰江流域近43年来气温、降水量总的趋势是上升的;1990年代是兰江流域气温上升和降水增加最显著的时段,主要表现在冬春气温明显上升,夏季降水量明显增加：兰江流域年径流深与年降水量基本保持同步变化。兰江流域过去43年的气候变化对流域内水资源产生了较大的影响,而且由于兰江流域内水资源空间分布差异较大,致使流域内人均水资源占有量较少的金华地区易受气候变化影响而出现供水紧张。     

Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England—An assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans

Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified.Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ∼520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/2035, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ∼475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ∼56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ∼37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.     

The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4 °C by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450 ppm CO₂e and leads to a 2 °C increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns.     

辽河流域水生态功能一级分区指标体系与技术方法

流域水生态功能分区是实现流域综合管理的重要基础,也是水环境管理由水质目标管理向流域水生态管理转变的重要依据。根据辽河流域大尺度水生态空间格局分异的自然属性,结合国内外相关生态环境分区的研究进展,通过对辽河流域水热比（P/T）、径流深（RD）、数字高程（DEM）、多年归一化植被指数（NDVI）和水文地质（RP）等自然因素、河流水环境因子及水生生物指标的典型相关分析（CCA）,筛选出DEM、RD、RP、NDVI指数作为水生态功能一级分区的主要因子,并依此建立了辽河流域水生态功能一级分区指标体系与分区技术方法。结果表明：辽河流域可分为4个水生态功能一级区,即西辽河上游内蒙古大兴安岭东南—冀北山地丘陵水生态区、西辽河中下游西辽河平原水生态区和辽河中下游平原水生态区及浑河—太子河上游山地丘陵水生态区。辽河流域多年历史数据与野外水生态调查数据分析表明,流域内鱼类聚类分析结果与水生态功能一级分区结果在空间分布上具有较好的吻合性。水生态功能分区结果为辽河流域水生态综合管理提供了科技支撑,同时也为中国水生态功能分区技术方法的制订提供了参考依据。     

Climate change impacts on Namibia's natural resources and economy

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the dry conditions already experienced in southern Africa. When rainfall does come, it is likely to be in bursts of greater intensity, leading to erosion and flood damage. However, these predictions have had very little influence on policy in southern African countries. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulations for Namibia indicate that over 20 years, annual losses to the Namibian economy could be up to 5% of GDP, due to the impact that climate change will have on its natural resources alone. This will affect the poorest people the most, with resulting constraints on employment opportunities and declining wages, especially for unskilled labour in rural areas. Namibia must take steps to ensure that all its policies and activities are ‘climate proofed’ and that it has a strategy to deal with displaced farmers and farm workers. The need to mainstream climate change into policies and planning is clear, and it is the responsibility of industrialized nations, who have largely created the problem of climate change, to help Namibia and other vulnerable countries cope with climate change impacts and plan for a climate-constrained future.     

1881—2010年哈尔滨市气候变化及其影响

利用哈尔滨站1881—2010年的月平均气温、1909—2010年的月总降水量和1961—2010年哈尔滨所辖区、县（市）月平均气温、月总降水量资料,采用线性趋势分析方法,计算了哈尔滨市气温、降水变化速率,分析了哈尔滨市气候变化特征;阐述了气候变化对哈尔滨市的影响。结果表明：近50 a,除巴彦7月气温略呈下降趋势外,哈尔滨市各区、县（市）各月、季、年平均气温均呈升高趋势。哈尔滨各区、县（市）各月、季、年总降水量变化趋势不一致。近130 a,哈尔滨市年、季平均气温均呈明显的上升趋势,20世纪80年代开始明显增温,21世纪开始增温尤为显著。近百年来,哈尔滨市年、季总降水量均呈减少趋势。气候变化对哈尔滨市农业、能源等方面的影响有利有弊,但对于水资源、人体健康和交通等有较大的负面影响。     

1953—2005年本溪地区气候变化及其对农业生产的影响

利用1953-2005年本溪地区温度和降水资料,运用统计学方法对20世纪80年代前后本溪地区的气候变化特点进行了研究。结果表明：近50多年来,本溪地区的年各季平均气温呈波动性上升趋势,平均气温倾向率为0.28℃/10 a,冬季最大为0.54℃/10 a;年降水量和各季降水量呈波动性减少趋势,年降水量倾向率为-31.67 mm/10 a,春季倾向率为1.54 mm/10 a,其他各季倾向率均为负值;水热匹配条件趋于恶化,干旱发生频率增大。同时,分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,为合理利用本地气候资源提供参考依据。     

Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust.     

The impacts of global warming on farmers in Brazil and India

How big a threat is global warming to climate-sensitive and economically important sectors such as agriculture in developing countries? How well will farmers be able to adapt to the threats of global warming? This paper attempts to shed light on these two important questions. A cross-sectional analysis is employed to estimate the climate sensitivity of agriculture in Brazil and India. Using panel data from both countries, the study measures how net farm income or property values vary with climate, and consequently, how farmers in India and Brazil react and adapt to climate. The estimated relationships are then used to predict the consequence of alternative climate scenarios. Global warming by the end of the next century could cause annual damages in Brazil between 1% and 39% and between 4% and 26% in India, although some of this effect may be potentially offset by carbon fertilization. These estimates do not factor into account climate-induced extreme weather events.