Projections of Climate Change Effects on Water Temperature Characteristics of Small Lakes in the Contiguous U.S.

To simulate effects of projected climate change on water temperature characteristics of small lakes in the contiguous U.S., a deterministic, one-dimensional year-round water temperature model is applied. In cold regions the model simulates ice and snow cover on a lake. The lake parameters required as model input are surface area, maximum depth, and Secchi depth as a measure of radiation attenuation and trophic state. The model is driven by daily weather data. Weather records from 209 stations in the contiguous U.S. for the period 1961–1979 were used to represent present climate conditions. The projected climate change owing to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. The simulated water temperature and ice characteristics are related to the geometric and trophic state lake characteristics and to geographic location. By interpolation, the sensitivity of lake water temperature characteristics to latitude, longitude, lake geometry and trophic status can therefore be quantified for small lakes in the contiguous U.S. The 2× CO₂ climate scenario is projected to increase maximum and minimum lake surface temperatures by up to 5.2°C. (Maximum surface water temperatures in lakes near the northern and the southern border of the contiguous U.S. currently differ by up to 13°C.) Maximum temperature differences between lake surface and lake bottom are projected to increase in average by only 1 to 2°C after climate warming. The duration of seasonal summer stratification is projected to be up to 66 days longer under a 2×CO₂ climate scenario. Water temperatures of less than 8°C are projected to occur on lake bottoms during a period which is on the order of 50 days shorter under a 2×CO₂ climate scenario. With water temperature change projected to be as high as 5.2°C, ecological impacts such as shifts in species distributions and in fish habitat are most likely. Ice covers on lakes of northern regions would also be changed strongly.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Human activities have altered the distribution and quality of terrestrial ecosystems. Future demands for goods and services from terrestrial ecosystems will occur in a world experiencing human-induced climate change. In this study, we characterize the range in response of unmanaged ecosystems in the conterminous U.S. to 12 climate change scenarios. We obtained this response by simulating the climatically induced shifts in net primary productivity and geographical distribution of major biomes in the conterminous U.S. with the BIOME 3 model. BIOME 3 captured well the potential distribution of major biomes across the U.S. under baseline (current) climate. BIOME 3 also reproduced the general trends of observed net primary production (NPP) acceptably. The NPP projections were reasonable for forests, but not for grasslands where the simulated values were always greater than those observed. Changes in NPP would be most severe under the BMRC climate change scenario in which severe changes in regional temperatures are projected. Under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios, NPP generally increases, especially in the West where increases in precipitation are projected to be greatest. A CO₂-fertilization effect either amplified increases or alleviated losses in modeled NPP. Changes in NPP were also associated with changes in the geographic distribution of major biomes. Temperate/boreal mixed forests would cover less land in the U.S. under most of the climate change scenarios examined. Conversely, the temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests would increase in areal extent under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios. The Arid Shrubland/Steppe would spread significantly across the southwest U.S. under the BMRC scenario. A map overlay of the simulated regions that would lose or gain capacity to produce corn and wheat on top of the projected distribution of natural ecosystems under the BMRC and UIUC scenarios (Global mean temperature increase of +2.5 °C, no CO₂ effect) helped identify areas where natural and managed ecosystems could contract or expand. The methods and models employed here are useful in identifying; (a) the range in response of unmanaged ecosystem in the U.S. to climate change and (b) the areas of the country where, for a particular scenario of climate change, land cover changes would be most likely.     

Spatial Scale Effects of Climate Scenarios on Simulated Cotton Production in the Southeastern U.S.A.

We examine the effect of climate scenarios generated using results from climate models of different spatial resolution on yields simulated by the deterministic cotton model GOSSYM for the southeastern U.S.A. Two related climate change scenarios were used: a coarse-scale scenario produced from results of a general circulation model (GCM) which also provided the boundary conditions to a regional climate model (RCM), from which a fine-scale scenario was constructed. Cotton model simulations were performed for three cases: climate change alone; climate change and elevatedCO₂; climate change, elevated CO₂ and adaptations to climate change. In general, significant differences in state-average projected yield changes between the coarse and fine-scale scenarios are found for these three cases. In the first two cases, different directions of change are found in some sub-regions. With adaptation, yields substantially increase for both climate scenarios, but more so for the coarse-scale scenario (30%domain-average increase). Under irrigation, yield change differences between the two climate scenarios are small in all three cases, and yields are higher under irrigation ( 35% domain-average increase with adaptation case) compared to dryland conditions. For the climate change alone case, differences in summer water-stress levels explain the contrasts in dryland yield patterns between the coarse and fine-scale climate scenarios.     

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State

Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydrology is particularly sensitive to changes in climate because snowmelt dominates seasonal runoff, and temperature changes impact the rain/snow balance. Based on results from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), we updated previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology. PNW 21st century hydrology was simulated using 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over Washington and the greater Columbia River watershed, with additional focus on the Yakima River watershed and the Puget Sound which are particularly sensitive to climate change. We evaluated projected changes in snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow for A1B and B1 emissions scenarios for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. April 1 SWE is projected to decrease by approximately 38–46% by the 2040s (compared with the mean over water years 1917–2006), based on composite scenarios of B1 and A1B, respectively, which represent average effects of all climate models. In three relatively warm transient watersheds west of the Cascade crest, April 1 SWE is projected to almost completely disappear by the 2080s. By the 2080s, seasonal streamflow timing will shift significantly in both snowmelt dominant and rain–snow mixed watersheds. Annual runoff across the State is projected to increase by 2–3% by the 2040s; these changes are mainly driven by projected increases in winter precipitation.     

Implications of CO2 global warming on great lakes ice cover

Statistical ice cover models were used to project daily mean basin ice cover and annual ice cover duration for Lakes Superior and Erie. Models were applied to a 1951–80 base period and to three 30-year steady double carbon dioxide (2 × CO₂) scenarios produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), and the Oregon State University (OSU) general circulation models. Ice cover estimates were made for the West, Central, and East Basins of Lake Erie and for the West, East, and Whitefish Bay Basins of Lake Superior. Average ice cover duration for the 1951– 80 base period ranged from 13 to 16 weeks for individual lake basins. Reductions in average ice cover duration under the three 2 × CO₂ scenarios for individual lake basins ranged from 5 to 12 weeks for the OSU scenario, 8 to 13 weeks for the GISS scenario, and 11 to 13 weeks for GFDL scenario. Winters without ice formation become common for Lake Superior under the GFDL scenario and under all three 2 × CO₂ scenarios for the Central and East Basins of Lake Erie. During an average 2 × CO₂ winter, ice cover would be limited to the shallow areas of Lakes Erie and Superior. Because of uncertainties in the ice cover models, the results given here represent only a first approximation and are likely to represent an upper limit of the extent and duration of ice cover under the climate change projected by the three 2 × CO₂scenarios. Notwithstanding these limitations, ice cover projected by the 2 × CO₂ scenarios provides a preliminary assessment of the potential sensitivity of the Great Lakes ice cover to global warming. Potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts of a 2 × CO₂ warming include year-round navigation, change in abundance of some fish species in the Great Lakes, discontinuation or reduction of winter recreational activities, and an increase in winter lake evaporation.     

Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agriculturalcrops under climate change in the Southeastern USA

Summary  It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO₂, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO₂ were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium , the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO₂ were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming. Received July 20, 1999/Revised April 18, 2000     

Correlations of Climate and Streamflow in Three Minnesota Streams

Correlations between four climate parameters and streamflow in three Minnesota streams were investigated. Runoff values measured over periods of up to 37 years were correlated with precipitation, air temperature, wind, and dew point temperature. The overall objective was to examine if relationships can be obtained which require only readily available input parameters without calibration. Such relationships would be of great use, e.g. to compute future lake water budgets without recourse to more detailed and complex hydrologic runoff models. Monthly, seasonal, and annual time frames were investigated. A seasonal time frame using 3 month averages gave the closest fit for the linear regressions without time lag. Although the watershed sizes varied from 360 to 49,600 square kilometers, the 3 month period seemed sufficiently long to average long term hydrologic processes such as infiltration, evaporation, and groundwater flow. An equation was found for each season (3 months) for each of the rivers. Winter (December, January, February) regressions required only precipitation data; spring regressions required air temperature and precipitation; summer and fall regressions were found with precipitation, air temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed. The coefficients in the regression equations were related to the watershed characteristics. The r² values were highest for the Zumbro River in spring (0.69) and lowest for the Baptism River in winter (0.14). Root mean square error values ranged from 2.8 mm/mo for the Mississippi River in winter to 18 mm/mo for the Baptism River in spring. The coefficients of variability (CV) ranged from 0.24 to 0.52. Overall the results were disappointing but not all bad. Climate parameters without watershed parameters can characterize runoff only within limits. To project possible future runoff averages the GISS GCM-values for the 2 × CO₂ climate scenario were applied to the seasonal runoff regression equations. The projections were that the spring runoff values would decrease by up to 35% while in the other seasons streamflows would increase by up to 50%. Annual runoff would not change significantly enough to be predictable. The results were in the range of changes predicted by other investigations using very different techniques. Since predictions were based on equations found with past records, it was implied that the land cover would remain unchanged in the 2 × CO₂ environment. This may be unrealistic and needs further investigation.     

Hydrological effects of the increased CO2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT

Increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO₂ and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO₂ concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO₂ based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO₂ in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO₂ concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO₂ concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (2071–2100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.     

Responses of arid and semiarid watersheds to increasing carbon dioxide and climate change as shown by simulation studies

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is expected to double in the next century causing increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation in some regions of the U.S. The increase in CO₂ will also directly affect stomatal conductance of plants. At the first-order watershed scale, changes in evaporative demand, transpiration, and runoff will also occur. Previous modeling studies of the effect of increased CO₂ on the water budgets of watersheds have been single-factor exercises where a single parameter representing stomatal conductance was reduced and the results noted. After showing validation results of the hydrology module, we used a comprehensive ecosystem model to examine the consequences of changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO₂-induced plant-function characteristics on small-basin runoff. As a result of the complex interactions and of the compensatory mechanisms simulated by the model, we conclude that for arid and semiarid watersheds of the western United States, there will be little change or an actual decrease in surface runoff because of increased CO₂ and climate change. This is due to the decrease in precipitation imposed on the model simulations. Implementing stomatal closure in the model did not increase runoff from the watersheds when temperatures were increased and precipitation decreased.     

A Projection of the Effects of the Climate Change Induced by Increased CO2 on Extreme Hydrologic Events in the Western U.S.

The effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ on the frequency of extreme hydrologic events in the Western United States (WUS) for the 10-yr period of 2040–2049 are examined using dynamically downscaled regional climate change signals. For assessing the changes in the occurrence of hydrologic extremes, downscaled climate change signals in daily precipitation and runoff that are likely to indicate the occurrence of extreme events are examined. Downscaled climate change signals in the selected indicators suggest that the global warming induced by increased CO₂ is likely to increase extreme hydrologic events in the WUS. The indicators for heavy precipitation events show largest increases in the mountainous regions of the northern California Coastal Range and the Sierra Nevada. Increased cold season precipitation and increased rainfall-portion of precipitation at the expense of snowfall in the projected warmer climate result in large increases in high runoff events in the Sierra Nevada river basins that are already prone to cold season flooding in todays climate. The projected changes in the hydrologic characteristics in the WUS are mainly associated with higher freezing levels in the warmer climate and increases in the cold season water vapor influx from the Pacific Ocean.     

REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING IN KAZAKHSTAN

The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO₂ concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural, forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2× CO₂ in 2075) and short-term (2000, 2010 and 2030) impacts were prepared. The climate conditions under increasing CO₂ concentration were estimated from three General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs: the model of the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM), the model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the 1% transient version of the GFDL model (GFDL-T). The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using the probabilistic forecast model (PFM) to the year 2010 and the results of GFDL-T for years 2000 and 2030. A baseline scenario representing the current climate conditions based on observations from 1951 to 1980 was developed. The assessment of climate change in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of 100-years observations is given too. As a result of comparisons of the current climate (based on observed climate) the 1× CO₂ output from GCMs showed that the GFDL model best matches the observed climate. The GFDL model suggests that the minimum increase in temperature is expected in winter, when most of the territory is expected to have temperatures 2.3–4.5 °C higher. The maximum (4.3 to 8.2 °C) is expected to be in spring. CCCM scenario estimates an extreme worming above 11 °C in spring months. GFDL-T outputs provide an intermediate scenario.     

Simulated Climate Change Effects on Year-Round Water Temperatures in Temperate Zone Lakes

A deterministic, one-dimensional model is presented to simulate daily water temperature profiles and associated ice and snow covers for dimictic and polymictic lakes of the temperate zone. The lake parameters required as model input are surface area (A_s), maximum depth (H_MAX), and Secchi depth (z_s), the latter, used as a measure of light attenuation and trophic state. The model is driven by daily weather data and operates year-round over multiple years. The model has been tested with extensive data (over 5,000 temperature points). Standard error between simulated and measured water temperatures is 1.4°C in the open water season and 0.5°C in the ice cover season. The model is applied to simulate the sensitivity of Minnesota lake water temperature characteristics to climate change. The projected climate changes due to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ are obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model (CCC GCM) and the Goddard Institute of Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GCM). Simulated lake temperature characteristics have been plotted in a coordinate system with a lake geometry ratio (A _s ^0.25 /H_MAX) on one axis and Secchi depth on the other. The lake geometry ratio expresses a lake's susceptibility to stratification. By interpolation, the sensitivity of lake temperature characteristics to changes of water depth and Secchi depth under the projected climate scenarios can therefore be obtained. Selected lake temperature characteristics simulated with past climate conditions (1961–1979) and with a projected 2 × CO₂ climate scenario as input are presented herein in graphical form. The simulation results show that under the 2 × CO₂ climate scenario ice formation is delayed and ice cover period is shortened. These changes cause water temperature modifications throughout the year.     

Climate change impacts on Laurentian Great Lakes levels

Scenarios of water supplies reflecting CO₂-induced climatic change are used to determine potential impacts on levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes and likely water management policy implications. The water supplies are based on conceptual models that link climate change scenarios from general circulation models to estimates of basin runoff, overlake precipitation, and lake evaporation. The water supply components are used in conjunction with operational regulation plans and hydraulic routing models of outlet and connecting channel flows to estimate water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Three steady-state climate change scenarios, corresponding to modeling a doubling of atmospheric CO₂, are compared to a steady-state simulation obtained with historical data representing an unchanged atmosphere. One transient climate change scenario, representing a modeled transition from present conditions to doubled CO₂ concentrations, is compared to a transient simulation with historical data. The environmental, socioeconomic, and policy implications of the climate change effects modeled herein suggest that new paradigms in water management will be required to address the prospective increased allocation conflicts between users of the Great Lakes.GLERL Contribution No. 645.     

Modelling the impacts of climate change on wheat yield and field water balance over the Murray�CDarling Basin in Australia

The study used a modelling approach to assess the potential impacts of likely climate change and increase in CO₂ concentration on the wheat growth and water balance in Murray?CDarling Basin in Australia. Impacts of individual changes in temperature, rainfall or CO₂ concentration as, well as the 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios, were analysed. Along an E?CW transect, wheat yield at western sites (warmer and drier) was simulated to be more sensitive to temperature increase than that at eastern sites; along the S?CN transect, wheat yield at northern warmer sites was simulated to be more sensitive to temperature increase, within 1?C3°C temperature increase. Along the E?CW and S?CN transects, wheat at drier sites would benefit more from elevated [CO₂] than at wetter sites, but more sensitive to the decline in rainfall. The increase in temperature only did not have much impact on water balance. Elevated [CO₂] increased the drainage in all the sites, whilst rainfall reduction decreased evapotranspiration, runoff and drainage, especially at drier sites. In 2050, wheat yield would increase by 1?C10% under all climate change scenarios along the S?CN transect, except for the northernmost site (Dalby). Along the E?CW transect, the most obvious increase of wheat yields under all climate change scenarios occurred in cooler and wetter eastern sites (Yass and Young), with an average increase rate of 7%. The biggest loss occurred at the driest sites (Griffith and Swan Hill) under A1FI and B2 scenarios, ranging from ?5% to ?16%. In 2070, there would be an increased risk of yield loss in general, except for the cool and wet sites. Water use efficiency was simulated to increase at most of the study sites under all the climate change scenarios, except for the driest site. Yield variability would increase at drier sites (Ardlethan, Griffith and Swan Hill). Soil types would also impact on the response of wheat yield and water balance to future climate change.     

Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewan River Basin

The potential hydrologic impact of climatic change on three sub-basins of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) within Alberta, namely, Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basins was investigated using the Modified Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (MISBA) land surface scheme of Kerkhoven and Gan (Advances in Water Resources 29:808–826 2006). The European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40) climate data, Digital Elevation Model of the National Water Research Institute, land cover data and a priori soil parameters from the Ecoclimap global data set were used to drive MISBA to simulate the runoff of SSRB. Four SRES scenarios (A21, A1FI, B21 and B11) of four General Circulation Models (CCSRNIES, CGCM2, ECHAM4 and HadCM3) of IPCC were used to adjust climate data of the 1961–1990 base period (climate normal) to study the effect of climate change on SSRB over three 30-year time periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099). The model results of MISBA forced under various climate change projections of the four GCMs with respect to the 1961–1990 normal show that SSRB is expected to experience a decrease in future streamflow and snow water equivalent, and an earlier onset of spring runoff despite of projected increasing trends in precipitation over the 21st century. Apparently the projected increase in evaporation loss due to a warmer climate over the 21st century will offset the projected precipitation increase, leading to an overall decreasing trend in the basin runoff of SSRB. Finally, a Gamma probability distribution function was fitted to the mean annual maximum flow and mean annual mean flow data simulated for the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins by MISBA to statistically quantify the possible range of uncertainties associated with SRES climate scenarios projected by the four GCMs selected for this study.     

Simulating the hydrological response to predicted climate change on a watershed in southern Alberta, Canada

The current body of research in western North America indicates that water resources in southern Alberta are vulnerable to climate change impacts. The objective of this research was to parameterize and verify the ACRU agro-hydrological modeling system for a small watershed in southern Alberta and subsequently simulate the change in future hydrological responses over 30-year simulation periods. The ACRU model successfully simulated monthly streamflow volumes (r ²?=?0.78), based on daily simulations over 27 years. The delta downscaling technique was used to perturb the 1961?C1990 baseline climate record from a range of global climate model (GCM) projections to provide the input for future hydrological simulations. Five future hydrological regimes were compared to the 1961?C1990 baseline conditions to determine the average net effect of change scenarios on the hydrological regime of the Beaver Creek watershed over three 30-year time periods (starting in 2010, 2040 and 2070). The annual projections of a warmer and mostly wetter climate in this region resulted in a shift of the seasonal streamflow distribution with an increase in winter and spring streamflow volumes and a reduction of summer and fall streamflow volumes over all time periods, relative to the baseline conditions (1961?C1990), for four of the five scenarios. Simulations of actual evapotranspiration and mean annual runoff showed a slight increase, which was attributed to warmer winters, resulting in more winter runoff and snowmelt events.     

Emission scenarios and global climate protection

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a wide range of emission scenarios in protecting climate (where ‘protecting climate’ Is used here to mean minimizing ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ which results in impacts to society and the natural environment). Under baseline (no action) conditions there is a significant Increase in emissions, temperature and climate impacts. Controlling only CO₂ emissions (ie freezing emissions in year 2000 at 1990 levels, and decreasing them afterwards at 1%/yr) and only in Annex I countries, does not significantly reduce the impacts observed under the baseline scenario. However, impacts are substantially reduced when emissions are controlled in both Annex I and non-Annex I countries, and when both CO₂ and non-CO₂ emissions are controlled. It was also found that stabilizing CO₂ in the atmosphere below 450 ppm substantially reduces climate impacts. But in order to follow the pathway to stabilization at 450 ppm specified by the IPCC, global emissions can only slightly increase in the coming decades, and then must be sharply reduced. On the other hand, stabilizing CO₂ in the atmosphere above 450 ppm can have significant impacts, which indicates that stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will not necessarily provide a high level of climate protection. Results from these and other scenarios are synthesized and related to climate protection goals through a new concept — ‘safe emission corridors’. These corridors indicate the allowable range of near-term global emissions (equivalent CO₂) which complies with specified short- and long-term climate goals. For an illustrative set of climate goals, the allowable anthropogenic global emissions in 2010 are computed to range from 7.3 to 14.5 GtC/yr equivalent CO₂ (1990 level = approximately 9.6 GtC/ yr); when these limits are set twice as strict (ie divided by two), the allowable range becomes 7.6 to 9.3 GtC/yr. To fall within this lower corridor, global emissions must be lower in 2010 than in 1990.     

Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change

With the continuing warming due to greenhouse gases concentration, it is important to examine the potential impacts on regional crop production spatially and temporally. We assessed China’s potential maize production at 50 × 50 km grid scale under climate change scenarios using modelling approach. Two climate changes scenarios (A2 and B2) and three time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) produced by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model were used. Rain-fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with the CERES-Maize model, with present optimum management practices. The model was run for 30 years of baseline climate and three time slices for the two climate change scenarios, without and with simulation of direct CO₂ fertilization effects. Crop simulation results under climate change scenarios varied considerably between regions and years. Without the CO₂ fertilization effect, China’s maize production was predicted to suffer a negative effect under both A2 and B2 scenarios for all time slices, with greatest production decreases in today’s major maize planting areas. When the CO₂ fertilization effect is taken into account, production was predicted to increase for rain-fed maize but decrease for irrigated maize, under both A2 and B2 scenarios for most time periods.     

Sensitivity of FORGRO to climatic change scenarios: A case study on Betula pubescens, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur in The Netherlands

The impacts of the climate change predictions of four general circulation models (GFDL, GISS, OSU and UKMO) on net primary production (NPP) ofBetula pubescens, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur in The Netherlands were analysed using the process-based model FORGRO. FORGRO is a model suitable to simulate growth of managed mono-species stands. For the GCMs mentioned, both transient and equilibrium 2 × CO₂ scenarios of temperature and precipitation change were evaluated and compared with responses under current climate. It was found that the NPP increases in the transient scenarios, but remains the same or declines in the 2 × CO₂ scenarios. This is because respiration increases more with rising temperature than photosynthesis. During the transient scenarios this effect gradually increases, while in the 2 × CO₂ scenario this effect is operating over the entire simulation period.If water limitation is taken into account, then the NPP of the reference scenario is reduced. In both the transient and 2 × CO₂ scenarios mis water limitation is annulated, resulting in a stronger response of NPP compared to the situation without water limitation. This enhancement of the response is most pronounced in the transient scenario due to the gradual effect of temperature on respiration.Similar results were obtained with a version of FORGRO in which the photosynthesis module of HYBRID (PGEN) is incorporated, although the response in FORGRO-PGEN is usually higher than that of FORGRO. This is because the response of photosynthesis to CO₂ rises with increasing temperature as defined in the PGEN-model, but not according to FORGRO.     

Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security

Identification of ‘critical thresholds’ of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model – CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km × 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO₂ fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5 ^{^}C; when the CO₂ fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China’s food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9–3.9 ^{^}C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China’s internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO₂ fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO₂ fertilization was considered.