The significance of coral reefs as global carbon sinks— response to Greenhouse

Coral reefs are net sinks for C, principally as CaCO₃ accretion. It is possible to predict quite accurately the rate of production, given adequate information about any particular reef environment. The best data set for an extensive region is that for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Careful analysis of this region and the incorporation of previously documented present day system calcification rates suggest net production (G) from G = 1 (kg CaCO₃ m⁻² yr⁻¹) for fringing reefs, to G = 1.9 for planar (infiled platform) reefs, G = 3 for ribbon reefs and lagoonal reefs. The 20,055 km² of reefs in the GBR are thus estimated to average G = 2.4, resulting in a total production of 50 million tonnes yr⁻¹. In a 50–100 year Greenhouse scenario of rising sealevel, we predict that recolonisation of present day reef flats will be extensive and prolific. Production will increase substantially, and this could be by as much as 40% (ranging from 0% for deep shoals to 180% for fringing reefs) to give 70 million tonnes yr⁻¹ if the rate of sealevel rise reaches or exceeds 6–8 mm yr⁻¹We estimate 115,000 km² of oceanic atolls worldwide. Drawing on points equivalence from the detailed analysis of the GBR, we estimate the atolls presently produce 160 million tonnes yr⁻¹. We predict that a similar 40% increase could be possible in the next 100 years or so resulting in a production of 220 million tonnes.Accepting an existing estimate of 617,000 km² for reefs worldwide, drawing from our projections from the GBR and the atolls, and making some assumptions about the remaining reef types (we suggest fringing reefs to dominate) we estimate global reef production at the present time to be 900 million tonnes yr⁻¹. Within the next 100 years or so, we suggest this rate could almost double to 1800 million tonnes. In the long term (several centuries) we predict that the continuing trend of recolonisation, particularly of fringing and planar reefs could result in the production of > 3000 million tonnes yr⁻¹ if rates of sealevel rise approaching or exceeding 6–8 mm yr⁻¹ are achieved. Eventually (> 500 yr), reefs could actually “drown” due to inability to match the rate of sealevel increase if that rate significantly exceeds 6–8 mm yr⁻¹.Thus, coral reefs at present act as a sink for 111 million tonnes C yr⁻¹, the equivalent of 2% of present output of anthropogenic CO₂. In the short term Greenhouse scenario (100 yr) we predict this could increase to the equivalent of 4% of the present CO₂ output. In the much longer term (several centuries), if all trends continue, this could increase to the equivalent of as much as 9% of the present CO₂ output.Unfortunately, we also predict that this considerable sink for C will be most likely of negative value in alleviating Greenhouse because of the immediate effect of CaCO₃ precipitation is to raise the P_CO2 of the surface oceans — ie, ot encourage CO₂ efflux to the atmosphere. We do not attempt to quantify this effect.Other Greenhouse changes such as seawater temperature increase, changes in cloud cover, increased rainfall and runoff, increased storm activity, and changes in dissolved CO₂ concentration and surface ocean circulation may complicate the reef response. However, we suggest that sealevel rise will be the dominant influence, at least during the next 100 years or so.     

Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

Mean-sea-level data from coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean were used to show that low-frequency variability is consistent among the stations in the basin. Statistically significant trends obtained from records longer than 40 years yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm yr^− 1, with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr^− 1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data. These estimates are consistent with the 1–2 mm yr^− 1 global sea-level-rise estimates reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Effects of a 2 × CO2 climate on two large lake systems: Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming

The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO₂ experiments (2 × CO₂) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4.Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO₂ climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to 1595 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +27 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation due to increased precipitation.For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO₂ climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO₂ climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr⁻¹ to 600 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +619 mm yr⁻¹ due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.     

Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000

The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr^− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr^− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr^− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr^− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr^− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.     

A peat core based estimate of Late-glacial and Holocene methane emissions from northern peatlands

We estimate the intensity of Late-glacial and Holocene methane emissions from peatlands based on their paleo net primary production (PNPP). The PNPP is derived from the carbon accumulation rates of the studied bog profile (Etang de la Gruère, Switzerland), which are corrected for the degree of peat degradation. The obtained PNPP curve is taken as a proxy for methane emissions. It shows relatively high values (90 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) early in the Bolling/Allerod and drops to low values (40 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) during the Younger Dryas cold period. With the onset of the Holocene the PNPP increases strongly up to 150 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1 around ca. 10,000 Cal. yr bp. This is followed by a decline to minimum values (30 to 40 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) between 6500 and 4000 Cal. yr bp. Thereafter, the PNPP starts to increase again to reach its highest value (175 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) around 1000 Cal. yr bp.The PNPP curve correlates well with the evolution of the atmospheric methane concentrations as derived from Greenland ice-cores. For example, minima in atmospheric methane reported during the Younger Dryas and around 5200 Cal. yr bp are coinciding with the lowest values of PNPP and the negative atmospheric methane peak at 8200 Cal. yr bp corresponds to a marked decrease in PNPP.Our PNPP curve suggests that the methane emissions from northern peatlands evolved similar to those of low latitude wetlands and together they largely determined the evolution of atmospheric methane throughout the Late-glacial and the Holocene. The abruptness of the rise of atmospheric methane at the end of the Younger Dryas probably points to an additional source (e.g. marine gas hydrates), but very early in the Holocene the peatlands have likely become the dominant source of atmospheric methane.     

Comparison of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1961–2000 as given by a data reconstruction and a 3D model

Two Mediterranean sea level distributions spanning the last decades are examined. The first one is a reconstruction of sea level obtained by a reduced-space optimal interpolation applied to tide gauge and altimetry data. The second distribution is obtained from a 3D (baroclinic) regional circulation model. None of the two representations includes the mechanical atmospheric forcing. Results are presented for two different periods: 1993–2000 (for which altimetry data are available) and 1961–2000 (the longest period common to both distributions).The first period is examined as a test period for the model, since the reconstruction is very similar to altimetry observations. The modelled sea level is in fair agreement with the reconstruction in the Western Mediterranean and in the Aegean Sea (except in the early nineties), but in the Ionian Sea the model departs from observations. For the whole period 1961–2000 the main feature is a marked positive trend in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.8 mm yr^− 1), observed both in the reconstruction and in the model. Also the distribution of positive trends in the Western Mediterranean (mean value of 1.1 mm yr^− 1) and the smaller trends in the Aegean Sea (0.5 mm yr^− 1) are similar in the reconstruction and in the model, despite the first implicitly accounts for sea level variations due to remote sources such as ice melting and the second does not. The interannual sea level variability associated with key regional events such as the Eastern Mediterranean Transient is apparently captured by the reconstruction but not by the model (at least in its present configuration). Hence, the reconstruction can be envisaged as a useful tool to validate further long-term numerical simulations in the region.     

Quantifying the response of forest carbon balance to future climate change in Northeastern China: Model validation and prediction

In this study, we report on the validation of process-based forest growth and carbon and nitrogen model of TRIPLEX against observed data, and the use of the model to investigate the potential impacts and interaction of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ on forest net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon budgets in northeast of China. The model validation results show that the simulated tree total volume, NPP, total biomass and soil carbon are consistent with observed data across the Northeast of China, demonstrating that the improved TRIPLEX model is able to simulate forest growth and carbon dynamics of the boreal and temperate forest ecosystems at regional scale. The climate change would increase forest NPP and biomass carbon but decrease overall soil carbon under all three climate change scenarios. The combined effects of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on the increase of NPP were estimated to be 10–12% for 2030s and 28–37% in 2090s. The simulated effects of CO₂ fertilization significantly offset the soil carbon loss due to climate change alone. Overall, future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ would have a significant impact on the forest ecosystems of Northeastern China.     

Brief description of bare essentials of surface transfer and results from simulations with the HAPEX-MOBILHY data

The Bare Essentials of Surface Transfer (BEST) land surface scheme is briefly described and the key physical parameterisations discussed. Results are then presented to illustrate how the model performs, with forcing data for HAPEX-MOBILHY, compared to a series of other schemes in the simulation of evaporation and sensible heat. The implications of the models performance, and some indications of the future development of the scheme are provided. The basic version of BEST was found to overestimate evaporation for the HAPEX-MOBILHY data, simulating 816 mm yr⁻¹ compared to a range of 550 to 816 mm yr⁻¹ for all models. A modification to the β parameterisation reduced the evaporation to 759 mm yr⁻¹ which, although an improvement, is still probably too high.     

Background discrimination capabilities of a heat and ionization germanium cryogenic detector

The discrimination capabilities of a 70 g heat and ionization Ge bolometer are studied. This first prototype has been used by the EDELWEISS dark matter experiment, installed in the Laboratoire Souterrain de Modane, for direct detection of WIMPs. Gamma and neutron calibrations demonstrate that this type of detector is able to reject more than 99.6% of the background while retaining 95% of the signal, provided that the background events distribution is not biased towards the surface of the Ge crystal. However, the 1.17 kg day of data taken in a relatively important radioactive environment show an extra population slightly overlapping the signal. This background is likely due to interactions of low energy photons or electrons near the surface of the crystal, and is somewhat reduced by applying a higher charge-collecting inverse bias voltage (−6 V instead of −2 V) to the Ge diode. Despite this contamination, more than 98% of the background can be rejected while retaining 50% of the signal. This yields a conservative upper limit of 0.7 event day⁻¹ kg⁻¹ keV_recoil⁻¹ at 90% confidence level in the 15–45 keV recoil energy interval; the present sensitivity appears to be limited by the fast ambient neutrons. Upgrades in progress on the installation are summarized.     

Simulated responses of Pinus halepensis forest productivity to climatic change and CO2 increase using a statistical model

Tree ring chronologies provide long-term records of growth in natural environmental conditions and may be used to evaluate impacts of climatic change and CO₂ increase on forest productivity. This study focuses on 21 Pinus halepensis forest stands in calcareous Provence (in the south-east of France). A chronology of net primary productivity (NPP) both for the 20th century and for each stand was estimated using tree ring data (width and density). The response of each stand to climate in terms of NPP was statistically modelled using response functions. Anomalies between estimated NPP and NPP reconstructed by response functions were calculated to evaluate the fertilising effect of CO₂ increase on tree growth. The changes in anomalies during the 20th century were attributed to the effect of CO₂ increase. A multiplying factor (β) linking CO₂ concentration and stand productivity was then calculated, on the basis of the trend observed during the 20th century. In this study, the value of the β factor obtained under natural conditions (β=0.50) is consistent with those from controlled CO₂ enrichment experiments. Both response functions and the β factor were used to predict NPP changes for a 2×CO₂ scenario. The 2×CO₂ climate was obtained using predictions from Météo France's ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaled to Marseilles meteorological station. NPP increased significantly for nine stands solely when the climatic effect was taken into account. The main factors responsible for this enhancement were increased winter and early spring temperatures. When the fertilising effect of the CO₂ increase was added, NPP was significantly enhanced for 14 stands (i.e. NPP enhancement ranged from 8% to 55%). Although the effects of global change were slightly detectable during the 20th century, their acceleration is likely to lead to great changes in the future productivity of P. halepensis forests.     

Climate variability, vegetation productivity and people at risk

Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. It is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5° resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m⁻² year⁻¹. By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people.     

Cryospheric change in China

This paper provides an overview of the current status of the cryosphere in China and its changes. Up-to-date statistics of the cryosphere in China are summarized based on the latest available data. There are 46,377 glaciers in China, covering an area of 59,425 km². The glacier ice reserve is estimated to be about 5600 km³ and the annual glacier runoff is about 61.6 × 10⁹ m³. The continuous snow cover extent (> 60 days) in China is about 3.4 × 10⁶ km² and the maximum water equivalent is 95.9 × 10⁹ m³ yr^− 1. The permafrost area in China is about 1.72 × 10⁶ km². The total ground ice reserve on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be about 10,923 km³. Recent investigations indicated that glacier areas in China have shrunk about 2–10% over the past 45 yr. Total glacier area has receded by about 5.5%. Snow mass has increased slightly. Permafrost is clearly degrading, as indicated by shrinking areas of permafrost, increasing depth of the active layer, rising of lower limit of permafrost, and thinning of the seasonal frost depth. Some models predict that glacier area shrinkage could be as high as 26.7% in 2050, with glacier runoff increasing until its maximum in about 2030. Although snow mass shows an increasing trend in western China, in eastern China the trend is toward decreasing snow mass, with increasing interannual fluctuations. Permafrost degradation is likely to continue, with one-third to one-half of the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau anticipated to degrade by 2100. Most of the high-temperature permafrost will disappear by then. The permafrost in northeastern China will retreat further northward.     

On the relativistic motion of the periastron in the eclipsing binary system DI Herculis

An analysis of fifteen-year photoelectric observations of DI Herculis shows that the upper estimate for the relativistic part of apsidal motion in this binary system is almost three times lower than the theoretical value. The total observed angular velocity of apsidal rotation is 0 _. ^° 0124 yr^–1. The relativistic part is less than 0 _. ^° 008 yr^–1 instead of 0 _. ^° 023 yr^–1 required by the theory.     

Airborne laser altimetry survey of Glaciar Tyndall, Patagonia

The first airborne laser altimetry measurements of a glacier in South America are presented. Data were collected in November of 2001 over Glaciar Tyndall, Torres del Paine National Park, Chilean Patagonia, onboard a Twin Otter airplane of the Chilean Air Force. A laser scanner with a rotating polygon-mirror system together with an Inertial Navigation System (INS) were fixed to the floor of the aircraft, and used in combination with two dual-frequency GPS receivers. Together, the laser–INS–GPS system had a nominal accuracy of 30 cm after data processing. On November 23rd, a total of 235 km were flown over the ablation area of Glaciar Tyndall, with 5 longitudinal tracks with a mean swath width of 300 m, which results in a point spacing of approximately 2 m both along and across track. A digital elevation model (DEM) generated using the laser altimetry data was compared with a DEM produced from a 1975 map (1:50,000 scale — Instituto Geográfico Militar (IGM), Chile). A mean thinning of − 3.1 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 was calculated for the ablation area of Glaciar Tyndall, with a maximum value of − 7.7 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 at the calving front at 50 m a.s.l. and minimum values of between − 1.0 and − 2.0 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 at altitudes close to the equilibrium line altitude (900 m a.s.l.). The thinning rates derived from the airborne survey were similar to the results obtained by means of ground survey carried out at  600 m of altitude on Glaciar Tyndall between 1975 and 2002, yielding a mean thinning of − 3.2 m a^− 1 [Raymond, C., Neumann, T.A., Rignot, E., Echelmeyer, K.A., Rivera, A., Casassa, G., 2005. Retreat of Tyndall Glacier, Patagonia, over the last half century. Journal of Glaciology 173 (51), 239–247.]. A good agreement was also found between ice elevation changes measured with laser data and previous results obtained with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data. We conclude that airborne laser altimetry is an effective means for accurately detecting glacier elevation changes in Patagonia, where an ice thinning acceleration trend has been observed during recent years, presumably in response to warming and possibly also drier conditions.     

Climate changes and recent glacier behaviour in the Chilean Lake District

Atmospheric temperatures measured at the Chilean Lake District (38°–42°S) showed contrasting trends during the second half of the 20th century. The surface cooling detected at several meteorological stations ranged from − 0.014 to − 0.021 °C a^− 1, whilst upper troposphere (850–300 gpm) records at radiosonde of Puerto Montt (41°26′S/73°07′W) revealed warming between 0.019 and 0.031 °C a^− 1. Regional rainfall data collected from 1961 to 2000 showed the overall decrease with a maximum rate of − 15 mm a^− 2 at Valdivia st. (39°38′S/73°05′W). These ongoing climatic changes, especially the precipitation reduction, seem to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena which has been more frequent after 1976. Glaciers within the Chilean Lake District have significantly retreated during recent decades, in an apparent out-of-phase response to the regional surface cooling. Moreover, very little is known about upper troposphere changes and how they can enhance the glacier responses. In order to analyse their behaviour in the context of the observed climate changes, Casa Pangue glacier (41°08′S/71°52′W) has been selected and studied by comparing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) computed at three different dates throughout the last four decades. This approach allowed the determination of ice elevation changes between 1961 and 1998, yielding a mean thinning rate of − 2.3 ± 0.6 m a^− 1. Strikingly, when ice thinning is computed for the period between 1981 and 1998, the resulting rate is 50% higher (− 3.6 ± 0.6 m a^− 1). This enhanced trend and the related area loss and frontal retreat suggests that Casa Pangue might currently be suffering negative mass balances in response to the upper troposphere warming and decreased precipitation of the last 25–30 yr, as well as debris cover would not prevent the glacier from a fast reaction to climate forcing. Most of recent glaciological studies regarding Andean glaciers have concentrated on low altitude changes, namely frontal variations, however, in order to better understand the regional glacier changes, new data are necessary, especially from the accumulation areas.     

Stable carbon isotope ratios in tree rings of co-occurring species from semi-arid tropics in Africa: Patterns and climatic signals

Although several proxies have been proposed to trace the course of environmental and climatological fluctuations, precise paleoclimate records from the tropics, notably from Africa are still sorely lacking today. Stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) in tree rings are an attractive record of climate. In this study, the patterns and climatic signals of δ¹³C ratios were determined on tree rings of deciduous (Acacia senegal, Acacia tortilis, Acacia seyal) and an evergreen (Balanites aegyptiaca) species, from a semi-arid Acacia Woodland in Ethiopia. δ¹³C inter-annual patterns are synchronous among the co-occurring species. A declining trend with time was observed in δ¹³C, notably for B. aegyptiaca, which could be due to anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and decrease in atmospheric δ¹³C. Tree ring δ¹³C values of all the species revealed significant negative correlation with precipitation amount but not with temperature and relative humidity. The δ¹³C series of the deciduous species shows a higher correlation (r = − 0.70 to − 0.78) with precipitation than the evergreen species (r = − 0.55). A master δ¹³C series, composed of the average of the three Acacia species, displayed stronger significant correlation (r = − 0.82) than any of the individual species δ¹³C series. The weak relationship between temperature and δ¹³C in this study indicates that photosynthetic rate is not a significant factor. Moisture stress, however, may have a direct impact on the stomatal conductance and explain the strong negative relationship between δ¹³C and precipitation. The results demonstrate the potential of δ¹³C in tree rings to reflect physiological responses to environmental changes as a vehicle for paleoclimatic reconstruction, which is important to understand tree response to past and future climate change.     

kSZ from patchy reionization: The view from the simulations

We present the first calculation of the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect due to the inhomogeneus reionization of the universe based on detailed large-scale radiative transfer simulations of reionization. The resulting sky power spectra peak at ℓ = 2000–8000 with maximum values of [ℓ(ℓ + 1)C_ℓ/(2π)]_max  4–7 × 10 ⁻¹³. The scale roughly corresponds to the typical ionized bubble sizes observed in our simulations, of 5–20 Mpc. The kSZ anisotropy signal from reionization dominates the primary CMB signal above ℓ = 3000. At large-scales the patchy kSZ signal depends only on the source efficiencies. It is higher when sources are more efficient at producing ionizing photons, since such sources produce larger ionized regions, on average, than less efficient sources. The introduction of sub-grid gas clumping in the radiative transfer simulations produce significantly more power at small-scales, but has little effect at large-scales. The patchy reionization kSZ signal is dominated by the post-reionization signal from fully-ionized gas, but the two contributions are of similar order at scales ℓ  3000 − 10⁴, indicating that the kSZ anisotropies from reionization are an important component of the total kSZ signal at these scales.     

Morphological and ice-dynamical changes on the Tasman Glacier, New Zealand, 1990–2007

This paper presents data concerning recent (1990–2007) surface morphological and ice-dynamical changes on the Tasman Glacier, New Zealand. We use remote-sensing data to derive rates of lake growth, glacier velocities and rates of glacier surface lowering. Between 1990 and 2007, the glacier terminus receded ~ 3.5 km and a large ice-contact proglacial lake developed behind the outwash head. By 2007 the lake area was ~ 6 km² and had replaced the majority of the lowermost 4 km of the glacier tongue. There is evidence that lake growth is proceeding at increasing rates — the lake area doubled between 2000 and 2007 alone. Measured horizontal glacier velocities decline from 150 m a^− 1 in the upper glacier catchment to almost zero at the glacier terminus and there is a consequent down-glacier increase in surface debris cover. Surface debris mapping shows that a large catastrophic rockfall onto the glacier surface in 1991 is still evident as a series of arcuate debris ridges below the Hochstetter icefall. Calculated glacier surface lowering is most clearly pronounced around the terminal area of the glacier tongue, with down-wasting rates of 4.2 ± 1.4 m a^− 1 in areas adjacent to the lateral moraine ridges outside of the current lake extent. Surface lowering rates of approximately 1.9 ± 1.4 m a^− 1 are common in the upper areas of the glacier. Calculations of future lake expansion are dependent on accurate bathymetric and bed topography surveys, but published data indicate that a further 8–10 km of the glacier is susceptible to calving and further lake development in the future.     

Estimation of net accumulation rate at a Patagonian glacier by ice core analyses using snow algae

Snow algae in a 45.97-m-long ice core from the Tyndall Glacier (50°59′05″S, 73°31′12″W, 1756 m a.s.l.) in the Southern Patagonian Icefield were examined for potential use in ice core dating and estimation of the net accumulation rate. The core was subjected to visual stratigraphic observation and bulk density measurements in the field, and later to analyses of snow algal biomass, water isotopes (¹⁸O, D), and major dissolved ions. The ice core contained many algal cells that belonged to two species of snow algae growing in the snow near the surface: Chloromonas sp. and an unknown green algal species. Algal biomass and major dissolved ions (Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻) exhibited rapid decreases in the upper 3 m, probably owing to melt water elution and/or decomposition of algal cells. However, seasonal cycles were still found for the snow algal biomass, ¹⁸O, D-excess, and major ions, although the amplitudes of the cycles decreased with depth. Supposing that the layers with almost no snow algae were the winter layers without the melt water essential to algal growth, we estimated that the net accumulation rate at this location was 12.9 m a^− 1 from winter 1998 to winter 1999, and 5.1 m from the beginning of winter to December 1999. These estimates are similar to the values estimated from the peaks of ¹⁸O (17.8 m a^− 1 from summer 1998 to summer 1999 and 11.0 m from summer to December 1999) and those of D-excess (14.7 m a^− 1 from fall 1998 to fall 1999 and 8.6 m a^− 1 from fall to December 1999). These values are much higher than those obtained by past ice core studies in Patagonia, but are of the same order of magnitude as those predicted from various observations at ablation areas of Patagonian glaciers.     

Ice elevation and areal changes of glaciers from the Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile

High thinning rates (up to − 4.0 ± 0.97 m a^− 1) have been measured at Campo de Hielo Patagónico Norte (CHN) or Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile between 1975 and 2001. Results have been obtained by comparing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from regular cartography compiled by Instituto Geográfico Militar of Chile (IGM) based upon 1974/1975 aerial photographs and a DEM generated from Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite images acquired in September 2001. A complete cloud-free Landsat ETM+ satellite image mosaic acquired in March 2001 was used to update the available glacier inventory of the CHN, including all glaciers larger than 0.5 km² (48 new glaciers). A new delineation of ice divides was also performed over the accumulation areas of glaciers sharing the high plateau where the existing regular cartography exhibits poor coverage of topographic information. This updated glacier inventory produced a total ice area for 2001 of 3953 km², which represents a decrease of 3.4 ± 1.5% (140 ± 61 km² of ice) with respect to the total ice area of the CHN in 1979 calculated from a Landsat MSS satellite image. Almost 62% of the total area change between 1979 and 2001 took place in glaciers located at the western margin of the CHN, where the maximum area loss was experienced by Glaciar San Quintín with 33 km². At the southern margin, Glaciar Steffen underwent the largest ice-area loss (12 km² or 2.6% of the 1979 area), whilst at the eastern margin the greatest area loss took place in Glaciares Nef (7.9 km², 5.7% of the 1979 area) and Colonia (9.1 km², 2.7% of the 1979 area). At the northern margin of the CHN the lower debris-covered ablation area of Glaciar Grosse collapsed into a new freshwater lake formed during the late 1990s. The areal changes measured at the CHN are much larger than previously estimated due to the inclusion of changes experienced in the accumulation areas. The CHN as a whole is contributing melt water to global sea level rise at rates  25% higher than previous estimates.