The Solar Energetic Particle Event of 14 December 2006

Solar Physics - The solar energetic particle event on 14 December 2006 was observed by several near-Earth spacecraft including the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), STEREO A and B, SOHO and...     

Major Solar Energetic Particle Events of Solar Cycles 22 and 23: Intensities Close to the Streaming Limit

It has been argued that the highest intensities measured near 1 AU during large solar energetic particle events occur in association with the passage of interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections, whereas the intensities measured early in the events (known as the prompt component) are bounded by a maximum intensity plateau known as the streaming limit. A few events in Solar Cycle 23 showed prompt components with intensities above the previously determined streaming limit. One of the scenarios proposed to explain intensities that exceed this limit in these events invokes the existence of transient plasma structures beyond 1 AU able to confine and/or mirror energetic particles. We study whether other particle events with prompt-component intensities close to the previously determined streaming limit are similarly affected by the presence of interplanetary structures. Whereas such structures were observed in four out of the nine events studied here, we conclude that only the events on 22 October 1989, 29 October 2003, and 17 January 2005 show interplanetary structures that can have modified the transport conditions in a way similar to those events with prompt components exceeding the previously determined streaming limit. The other six events with prompt components close to the previously determined streaming limit were characterized by either a low level of pre-event solar activity and/or the absence of transient interplanetary structures able to modify the transport of energetic particles.     

Solar Energetic Particle Event of 2005 January 20： Release Times and Possible Sources

Based on cosmic ray data obtained by neutron monitors at the Earth's surface, and data on near-relativistic electrons measured by the WIND satellite, as well as on solar X-ray and radio burst data, the solar energetic particle (SEP) event of 2005 January 20 is studied. The results show that this event is a mixed event where the flare is dominant in the acceleration of the SEPs, the interplanetary shock accelerates mainly solar protons with energies below 130 MeV, while the relativistic protons are only accelerated by the solar flare. The interplanetary shock had an obvious acceleration effect on relativistic electrons with energies greater than 2 MeV. It was found that the solar release time for the relativistic protons was about 06:41 UT, while that for the near-relativistic electrons was about 06:39 UT. The latter turned out to be about 2 min later than the onset time of the interplanetary type III burst.     

Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Energetic Proton Peak Fluxes

An extreme value analysis of >10 MeV solar proton event peak fluxes during the period 1967–1994 is carried out. The largest annual peak fluxes that exceed a few hundred cm–2 s–1 sr–1 are described by the type II extreme value distribution. One implication of this finding is that the extreme value distribution can be related to the initial distribution of large peak fluxes. Assuming that the number of events is a Poisson variable, the initial distribution is shown to be a power law with parameters that are directly related to the extreme value distribution parameters. The power law thus determined for the initial cumulative distribution has an index of –0.68, and agrees well with the data for peak fluxes above a few hundred cm–2 s–1 sr–1. Implications for using extreme value methods in conjunction with initial distributions that are represented by power laws are discussed.     

An Investigation of the CME of 3 November 2011 and Its Associated Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event

Multi-spacecraft observations are used to study the in-situ effects of a large coronal mass ejection (CME) erupting from the farside of the Sun on 3 November 2011, with particular emphasis on the associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event. At that time both Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft were located more than 90 degrees from Earth and could observe the CME eruption directly, with the CME visible on-disk from STEREO-B and off the limb from STEREO-A. Signatures of pressure variations in the corona such as deflected streamers were seen, indicating the presence of a coronal shock associated with this CME eruption. The evolution of the CME and an associated extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave were studied using EUV and coronagraph images. It was found that the lateral expansion of the CME low in the corona closely tracked the propagation of the EUV wave, with measured velocities of 240±19 km?s^?1 and 221±15 km?s^?1 for the CME and wave, respectively. Solar energetic particles were observed to arrive first at STEREO-A, followed by electrons at the Wind spacecraft at L₁, then STEREO-B, and finally protons arrived simultaneously at Wind and STEREO-B. By carrying out a velocity-dispersion analysis on the particles arriving at each location, it was found that energetic particles arriving at STEREO-A were released first and that the release of particles arriving at STEREO-B was delayed by about 50 minutes. Analysis of the expansion of the CME to a wider longitude range indicates that this delay is a result of the time taken for the CME edge to reach the footpoints of the magnetic-field lines connected to STEREO-B. The CME expansion is not seen to reach the magnetic footpoint of Wind at the time of solar-particle release for the particles detected here, suggesting that these particles may not be associated with this CME.     

Energetic Particle Fluxes during the Bastille Day Solar Eruption

We report on our observations of solar energetic particle fluxes of p, He, C, O, Ne, Mg, Si, and Fe ions measured by the Energetic and Relativistic Nucleon and Electron (ERNE) experiment associated with the Bastille Day solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) on 14 July 2000. We observed two clear maxima of the Fe/O ratio at the energies 8.5–15 MeV nucl⁻¹. The first Fe/O maximum occurred ∼ 3 hours after the beginning of the particle event, and the second maximum ∼ 22 hours after the first one at the arrival of the shock associated with the Bastille Day eruption. We also observed a change in the energy spectrum of oxygen concurrent with a change in the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field at the start of the second enhancement of the Fe/O ratio. We propose an interpretation of the particle event where observed interplanetary particle fluxes are associated with two different particle sources near the Sun and in interplanetary space. We suggest that heavy ions observed during the first period of the Fe/O enhancement were released when a coronal shock reached a magnetic foot point connected to 1 AU. The second maximum of Fe/O occurred when spacecraft encountered Fe-rich material stored in magnetic field flux tubes early in the event and was possibly reaccelerated by the interplanetary shock.     

Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events Using Principal Component Analysis

We perform a principal component analysis (PCA) on a set of six solar variables (i.e. width/size (\(s\)) and velocity (\(u\)) of a coronal mass ejection, logarithm of the solar flare (SF) magnitude (\(\log\mathit{SXRs}\)), SF longitude (\(\mathit{lon}\)), duration (\(\mathit{DT}\)), and rise time (\(\mathit{RT}\))). We classify the solar energetic particle (SEP) event radiation impact (in terms of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scales) with respect to the characteristics of their parent solar events. We further attempt to infer the possible prediction of SEP events. In our analysis, we use 126 SEP events with complete solar information, from 1997 to 2013. Each SEP event is a vector in six dimensions (corresponding to the six solar variables used in this work). The PCA transforms the input vectors into a set of orthogonal components. By mapping the characteristics of the parent solar events, a new base defined by these components led to the classification of the SEP events. We furthermore applied logistic regression analysis with single, as well as multiple explanatory variables, in order to develop a new index (\(I\)) for the nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of SEP events. We tested several different schemes for \(I\) and validated our findings with the implementation of categorical scores (probability of detection (POD) and false-alarm rate (FAR)). We present and interpret the obtained scores, and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the different implementations. We show that \(I\) holds prognosis potential for SEP events. The maximum POD achieved is 77.78% and the relative FAR is 40.96%.     

Hybrid Solar Energetic Particle Events Observed on Board Soho

We summarize ERNE/SOHO observations of solar energetic particle events associated with impulsive soft X-ray flares and LASCO coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The new observational data support an idea that the >10 MeV proton acceleration may be initiated at different coronal sources, operating in the flaring active region and on the global coronal scale, in concert with CME development. However, the particle acceleration continues beyond the coronal scales and may culminate at the interplanetary CME well after the flare. We emphasize the importance of CME liftoff/aftermath processes in the solar corona and the possible role of seed particle re-acceleration, which may explain the existence of hybrid solar energetic particle events.     

Particle Acceleration and Propagation in Strong Flares without Major Solar Energetic Particle Events

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) detected in space are statistically associated with flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). But it is not clear how these processes actually contribute to the acceleration and transport of the particles. The present work addresses the question why flares accompanied by intense soft X-ray bursts may not produce SEPs detected by observations with the GOES spacecraft. We consider all X-class X-ray bursts between 1996 and 2006 from the western solar hemisphere. 21 out of 69 have no signature in GOES proton intensities above 10 MeV, despite being significant accelerators of electrons, as shown by their radio emission at cm wavelengths. The majority (11/20) has no type III radio bursts from electron beams escaping towards interplanetary space during the impulsive flare phase. Together with other radio properties, this indicates that the electrons accelerated during the impulsive flare phase remain confined in the low corona. This occurs in flares with and without a CME. Although GOES saw no protons above 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit, energetic particles were detected in some (4/11) confined events at Lagrangian point L1 aboard ACE or SoHO. These events have, besides the confined microwave emission, dm-m wave type II and type IV bursts indicating an independent accelerator in the corona. Three of them are accompanied by CMEs. We conclude that the principal reason why major solar flares in the western hemisphere are not associated with SEPs is the confinement of particles accelerated in the impulsive phase. A coronal shock wave or the restructuring of the magnetically stressed corona, indicated by the type II and IV bursts, can explain the detection of SEPs when flare-accelerated particles do not reach open magnetic field lines. But the mere presence of these radio signatures, especially of a metric type II burst, is not a sufficient condition for a major SEP event.     

Initial Time Dependence of Abundances in Solar Energetic Particle Events

We compare the initial behavior of Fe/O and He/H abundance ratios and their relationship to the evolution of the proton energy spectra in "small" and "large" gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The results are qualitatively consistent with the behavior predicted by the theory of Ng et al. published in 1999. He/H ratios that initially rise with time are a signature of scattering by non-Kolmogorov Alfvén wave spectra generated by intense beams of shock-accelerated protons streaming outward in large gradual SEP events.     

The Large Longitudinal Spread of Solar Energetic Particles During the 17 January 2010 Solar Event

We investigate multi-spacecraft observations of the 17 January 2010 solar energetic particle event. Energetic electrons and protons have been observed over a remarkable large longitudinal range at the two STEREO spacecraft and SOHO, suggesting a longitudinal spread of nearly 360 degrees at 1?AU. The flaring active region, which was on the backside of the Sun as seen from Earth, was separated by more than 100 degrees in longitude from the magnetic footpoints of each of the three spacecraft. The event is characterized by strongly delayed energetic particle onsets with respect to the flare and only small or no anisotropies in the intensity measurements at all three locations. The presence of a coronal shock is evidenced by the observation of a type II radio burst from the Earth and STEREO-B. In order to describe the observations in terms of particle transport in the interplanetary medium, including perpendicular diffusion, a 1D model describing the propagation along a magnetic field line (model 1) (Dr?ge, Astrophys. J. 589, 1027??C?1039, 2003) and the 3D propagation model (model 2) by Dr?ge et?al. (Astrophys. J. 709, 912??C?919, 2010) including perpendicular diffusion in the interplanetary medium have been applied. While both models are capable of reproducing the observations, model 1 requires injection functions at the Sun of several hours. Model 2, which includes lateral transport in the solar wind, reveals high values for the ratio of perpendicular to parallel diffusion. Because we do not find evidence for unusual long injection functions at the Sun, we favor a scenario with strong perpendicular transport in the interplanetary medium as an explanation for the observations.     

Predicting Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: The FORSPEF Tool

A novel integrated prediction system for solar flares (SFs) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events is presented here. The tool called forecasting solar particle events and flares (FORSPEF) provides forecasts of solar eruptive events, such as SFs with a projection to occurrence and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the likelihood of occurrence of an SEP event. In addition, the tool provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual SF and CME near real-time data, as well as the SEP characteristics (e.g. peak flux, fluence, rise time, and duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of SFs relies on the effective connected magnetic field strength (\(B_{\mathrm{eff}}\)) metric, which is based on an assessment of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations, and it uses a sophisticated statistical analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events, new statistical methods have been developed for the likelihood of the SEP occurrence and the expected SEP characteristics. The prediction window in the forecasting scheme is 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours, while the respective prediction time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and ranges between 15?–?20 minutes for solar flares and 6 hours for CMEs. We present the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection, and the operational setup. Finally, we demonstrate the validation of the modules of the FORSPEF tool using categorical scores constructed on archived data, and we also discuss independent case studies.     

Large Proton Anisotropies in the 18 August 2010 Solar Particle Event

The solar particle event observed at STEREO Ahead on 18?August 2010 displayed a rich variety of behavior in the particle anisotropies. Sectored rates measured by the Low Energy Telescope (LET) on STEREO showed very large bidirectional anisotropies in 4??C?6?MeV protons for the first ???17?hours of the event while inside a magnetic cloud, with intensities along the field direction several hundred to nearly 1000 times greater than those perpendicular to the field. At the trailing end of the cloud, the protons became isotropic and their spectrum hardened slightly, while the He/H abundance ratio plunged by a factor of approximately four for about four hours. Associated with the arrival of a shock on 20?August was a series of brief (<?10?minute duration) intensity increases (commonly called ??shock spikes??) with relatively narrow angular distributions (???45^° FWHM), followed by an abrupt decrease in particle intensities at the shock itself and a reversal of the proton flow to a direction toward the Sun and away from the receding shock. We discuss the STEREO/LET observations of this interesting event in the context of other observations reported in the literature.     

Laboratory Exploration of Solar Energetic Phenomena

The solar atmosphere displays a wide variety of dynamic phenomena driven by the interaction of magnetic fields and plasma. In particular, plasma jets in the solar chromosphere and corona, coronal heating, solar flares and coronal mass ejections all point to the presence of magnetic phenomena such as reconnection, flux cancellation, the formation of magnetic islands, and plasmoids. While we can observe the signatures and gross features of such phenomena we cannot probe the essential physics driving them, given the spatial resolution of current instrumentation. Flexible and well-controlled laboratory experiments, scaled to solar parameters, open unique opportunities to reproduce the relevant unsteady phenomena under various simulated solar conditions. The ability to carefully control these parameters in the laboratory allows one to diagnose the dynamical processes which occur and to apply the knowledge gained to the understanding of similar processes on the Sun, in addition directing future solar observations and models. This talk introduces the solar phenomena and reviews the contributions made by laboratory experimentation.     

Element Abundances in Solar Energetic Particles and the Solar Corona

This is a study of abundances of the elements He, C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, Ar, Ca, and Fe in solar energetic particles (SEPs) in the 2?–?15 MeV?amu^?1 region measured on the Wind spacecraft during 54 large SEP events occurring between November 1994 and June 2012. The origin of most of the temporal and spatial variations in abundances of the heavier elements lies in rigidity-dependent scattering during transport of the particles away from the site of acceleration at shock waves driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Variation in the abundance of Fe is correlated with the Fe spectral index, as expected from scattering theory but not previously noted. Clustering of Fe abundances during the “reservoir” period, late in SEP events, is also newly reported. Transport-induced enhancements in one region are balanced by depletions in another, thus, averaging over these variations produces SEP abundances that are energy independent, confirms previous SEP abundances in this energy region, and provides a credible measure of element abundances in the solar corona. These SEP-determined coronal abundances differ from those in the solar photosphere by a well-known function that depends upon the first ionization potential (FIP) or ionization time of the element.     

Solar Energetic Particle Events in the 23rd Solar Cycle: Interplanetary Magnetic Field Configuration and Statistical Relationship with Flares and CMEs

We study the influence of the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field configuration on the solar energetic particles (SEPs) as detected at different satellites near Earth and on the correlation of their peak intensities with the parent solar activity. We selected SEP events associated with X- and M-class flares at western longitudes, in order to ensure good magnetic connection to Earth. These events were classified into two categories according to the global interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) configuration present during the SEP propagation to 1 AU: standard solar wind or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). Our analysis shows that around 20 % of all particle events are detected when the spacecraft is immersed in an ICME. The correlation of the peak particle intensity with the projected speed of the SEP-associated coronal mass ejection is similar in the two IMF categories of proton and electron events, ≈?0.6. The SEP events within ICMEs show stronger correlation between the peak proton intensity and the soft X-ray flux of the associated solar flare, with correlation coefficient r=0.67±0.13, compared to the SEP events propagating in the standard solar wind, r=0.36±0.13. The difference is more pronounced for near-relativistic electrons. The main reason for the different correlation behavior seems to be the larger spread of the flare longitude in the SEP sample detected in the solar wind as compared to SEP events within ICMEs. We discuss to what extent observational bias, different physical processes (particle injection, transport, etc.), and the IMF configuration can influence the relationship between SEPs and coronal activity.     

Occurrence Probability of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events: Assessment from Data on Cosmogenic Radionuclides in Lunar Rocks

We revisited assessments of the occurrence probability distribution of large events in solar energetic particles (SEP), based on measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides in lunar rocks. We present a combined cumulative occurrence probability distribution of SEP events based on three timescales: directly measured SEP fluences for the past 60 years; estimates based on the terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclides ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C for the multi-millennial (Holocene) timescale; and cosmogenic radionuclides measured in lunar rocks on a timescale of up to 1 Myr. These three timescales yield a consistent distribution. The data suggest a strong roll-over of the occurrence probability, so that SEP events with a proton fluence with energy >?30 MeV greater than 10¹¹ (protons cm^?2?yr^?1) are not expected on a Myr timescale.