中国东北深源地震机理

深源地震机理的研究有助于深入了解板块构造的驱动机制和动力学特征。对中国唯一的深震区--东北深震区的深震分布特征和震源机制解进行了综述和初步研究,初步探索了地震的发震机理、动力源以及地震的空间分布与西北太平洋俯冲板块的关系。分析结果显示：（1）震源深度在SEE NWW方向上有依次加深的趋势,而在SSW NNE方向上却没有明显变化,震源机制解的应力状态以下倾的压缩应力为主,说明中国东北深震的发生与西北太平洋板块向欧亚大陆的俯冲直接相关;（2）从日本海沟到我国东北,震源深度依次加深且几乎是从日本海沟沿直线倾斜下来,说明我国东北深震是日本海深震序列的一部分,同属于环太平洋地震带;（3）通过与东北深震区地球物理资料的对比,发现该区亚稳态橄榄石楔（Metastable Olivine Wedge,MOW）与深源地震的发生存在很好的相关性,由此推断东北深震的发生很可能是由橄榄石的相变引起的。     

Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Area of Mystras-Sparta,South Peloponnesus,Greece, Based on Local Seismotectonic,Seismic, Geologic Information and on Different Models of Rupture Propagation

Strong seismic events once again confirm the view that great destructive earthquakes are produced by the reactivation of pre-existing faults although they have usually remained inactive for many, perhaps thousands of years. It is evident that such active seismogenic zones, with little or no seismicity, have presumably been ignored in the determination of the region's seismic hazard. At south Peloponnesus, Greece, is situated at Taygetos mountain. At its eastern front lies a large normal fault system, the southern segment being the Sparta fault. This area has been characterized by low seismicity for the last 25 centuries. However, during the 6th and 5th centuries B.C. several destructive earthquakes have been reported. That of 464 B.C., was the most destructive and devastated the city of Sparta. Detailed morphotectonic observations of this area, suggest that the earthquake of 464 B.C. could be related to the most recent reactivation of this fault. The ground accelerations that would be produced by a future activation of the Sparta fault, were calculated, by applying a method which takes into account information mainly from the seismotectonic parameters of the Sparta fault, the rupture pattern, the properties of the propagation medium and the local ground conditions. Moreover, these results were compared with those of other independent studies based mainly on the seismic data of the area. This method estimated greater expected values of ground acceleration than those computed by the conventional seismic hazard methods. The highest values correspond to the activation of the Sparta fault either in a unilateral rupture, which would start from the southernmost point of the fault, or in a circular one. Furthermore, an increase is observed of the order of 50% in the ground acceleration values in unconsolidated soft ground in relation to the corresponding values of hard ground. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Archaeological evidence for destructive earthquakes in Sicily between 400 B.C. and A.D. 600

A systematic archaeoseismological study indicates that at least three earthquakes occurred between 400 B.C. and A.D. 600, causing destruction to numerous ancient monuments in Sicily. Evidence for these earthquakes comes from the collapse style of buildings (toppled walls, column drums in a domino‐style arrangement, directional collapses, etc.), and the exclusion of other likely causes for such effects. Dating of inferred earthquakes is based on coins (accurate to within 5–10 years), pottery (accurate to within 50–200 years), and other artifacts. The oldest documented earthquake occurred between 370 and 300 B.C. and caused the collapse of two Greek temples in Selinunte. This otherwise poorly documented event was probably also the cause of extensive destruction in northeastern Sicily in the first century A.D. Destruction of some sites may be assigned to an earthquake that occurred between 360 and 374 and correlates with the A.D. 365 seismic sequence known from historical sources. This study covers a wider region and provides a more precise dating of earthquakes than previous studies. Although it focuses on a certain period (4th–3rd centuries B.C., 4th–7th centuries A.D.), it indicates that the period before A.D. 1000 is not a period of seismic quiescence in Sicily as was previously believed, but to a period characterized by strong and destructive earthquakes. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Seismotectonic significance of the 29 January 1989 Etne earthquake, SW Norway

The integrated analysis of geological, seismological and field observations with lineament data derived from satellite images allows the identification of a possible seismogenic fault zone for an earthquake which occurred near Etne in southwestern Norway, on 29 February 1989. The hypocentre of the earthquake was located at the mid-crust at a depth of 13.8±0.9 km which is typical of small intraplate earthquakes. The Etne earthquake occurred as a result of normal faulting with a dextral strike-slip component on a NW–SE trending fault. Available geological and lineament data indicate correlation of the inferred seismogenic fault with the NW–SE trending Etne fault zone. An aeromagnetic anomaly related to the Etne fault zone forms a regional feature intersecting both Precambrian basement and allochthonous Caledonian rocks. Based on these associations the occurrence of the Etne event is ascribed to the reactivation of a zone of weakness along the Etne fault zone. Slope-instabilities developed in the superficial deposits during the Etne event demonstrate the existence of potentially hazardous secondary-effects of such earthquakes even in low seismicity areas such as southwestern Norway.     

Tree-ring dated landslide movements and their relationship to seismic events in southwestern Montana, USA

To determine periods of incremental landslide movement and their possible relationship to regional seismic events, the tree-ring records of 32 tilted and damaged conifers at three sites on landslides in the Gravelly Range of southwestern Montana were examined. Several signs of disturbance in the tree-ring record indicating landslide movement were observed. Commonly, the tree-ring record displayed a marked reduction in annual ring width and/or the reaction wood formation. The tree-ring records from the three landslide sites indicate multiple periods of movement during the 20th century. Many of the periods of movement indicated by the strongest signals (most trees) at the sites occurred the year following significant earthquakes in the region. Those seismic events for which evidence in the tree-ring record was found at one or more of the three sites are the 1983 Borah Peak, 1959 Hebgen Lake, 1935 Helena, 1925 Clarkson, and 1908 Virginia City earthquakes. This study suggests that many of the landslide movements were triggered by, or are coincident with, earthquakes as much as 200 km from the study area.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Short term earthquake forecasts at Koyna,India

Earthquake activity is monitored in real time at the Koyna reservoir in western India, beginning from August 2005 and successful short term forecasts have been made of M ∼ 4 earthquakes. The basis of these forecasts is the observation of nucleation that precedes such earthquakes. Here we report that a total of 29 earthquakes in the magnitude range of 3.5 to 5.1 occurred in the region during the period of August 2005 through May 2010. These earthquakes could broadly be put in three zones. Zone-A has been most active accounting for 18 earthquakes, while 5 earthquakes in Zone-B and 6 in Zone-C have occurred. Earthquakes in Zone-A are preceded by well defined nucleation, while it is not the case with zones B and C. This indicates the complexity of the earthquakes processes and the fact that even in a small seismically active area of only 20 km × 30 km earthquake forecast is difficult.     

Information background of 11th–15th centuries earthquakes located by the current catalogues in Vrancea (Romania)

Earthquake catalogues for Romania supply for 11th–15th century earthquakes located in the region of Vrancea records that consist of a complete set of parameters, including magnitude and depth. Scope of this paper is to verify the reliability and consistency of these parameters with the informative background as explicitly referenced by the catalogues. After retrieving the original sources they mention, the set of data appeared to be related almost exclusively to the Russian plain and too poor to be at the very origin of the parameter assessment. Data for 19th–20th century earthquakes, such as instrumental locations and CMT solutions, added to the understanding of the macroseismic response of the Russian plain to Vrancea earthquakes. On the one hand, the investigation and analysis of historical earthquake records for the fourteen events listed by the catalogues in the 11th–15th centuries has shown that for three earthquakes (1022, 1038, 1258) no primary sources could be traced, and three more earthquakes (1091, 1170 and 1328) are attested only by scarcely reliable records and had to be classified as doubtful, and one (1473) is simply a duplication of the 1471 event. On the other hand, the availability of data on recent earthquakes that may be compared to historical ones in terms of macroseismic effects allowed the authors to agree with the previous catalogue compilers’ solution with regard to both magnitude and depth of the past earthquakes for which do exist reliable primary historical records.     

Seismotectonics of Portugal and its adjacent area in the Atlantic

New elements on the seismicity of Portugal and new focal-mechanism solutions of earthquakes with epicentres situated off the coast of the Portuguese mainland and in the Azores region are presented. Historical seismicity data show that in the territory of the Portuguese mainland there are active faults that are responsible for earthquakes that have caused important damage and many casualties. However, most of the intraplate earthquakes with epicentres situated in the Portuguese mainland or near the shore are normally of small magnitude and this renders difficult their interpretation in the light of focal mechanisms. A solution for one earthquake, with magnitude 5 and epicentre at the Nazaré submarine canyon, is presented.Southwestwards of Cape St. Vincent there is an important seismic zone responsible for high-magnitude earthquakes such as that of 1 November 1755. This zone is situated in the region where the extension of the Messejana fault into the ocean joins with the Azores-Gibraltar fault.The seismicity of the area situated between the western coast of the Portuguese mainland and the Azores increases approximately along the 15°W meridian, from the latitude of the Azores-Gibraltar fault up to 44°N. Focal mechanisms of earthquakes with epicentres situated along this line show very similar solutions.The interpretation of the focal mechanism solutions of the earthquakes with epicentres situated in the studied area shows that the stress field trends approximately NW-SE. It is assumed that this stress field results from the interaction of the Eurasian and African plates; however, this direction is not maintained in the Azores region.     

Climatic variation and changes in the wind and ocean circulation: The Little Ice Age in the northeast Atlantic

Variations must take place in the ocean circulation when the general wind circulation varies. There are hints even within recent years that the variations in the ocean between Iceland and Scotland and Norway can be big: The area has been regarded as the main path of the warm, saline North Atlantic Drift water heading towards the Arctic; but, when the polar water occasionally intrudes from the north, sea-surface temperature is liable to fall by 3 to 5°C and presumably by more than this when, as in 1888, the ice advanced to near the Faeroe Islands. The long series of sea-surface temperature observations at that point, starting in 1867, and earlier observations covering the area in 1789, are studied. Various kinds of proxy data—notably the CLIMAP Atlantic ocean-bed core analysis results for the last Ice Age climax and cod fishery and sea-ice reports from the Little Ice Age in the 17th century ad—are then used to indicate the variability in this part of the ocean on longer time scales. The reconstruction of the situation between ad 1675 and 1705 resulting from this study suggests a probable mean departure of the sea surface temperature from modern values between the Faeroes and southeast Iceland amounting to about ?5°C; and at the climax in 1695 the polar water seems to have spread all around Iceland, across the entire surface of the Norwegian Sea to Norway, and south to near Shetland. Support for this diagnosis is found in a considerable variety of reports of environmental conditions existing at the time in Scotland, south Norway and elsewhere. The enhanced thermal gradient between approximately latitudes 55 and 65°N during the Little Ice Age, which this result indicates, offers an explanation for the occurrence in that period of a number of windstorms which changed the coasts in various places and seem to have surpassed in intensity the worst experienced in the region in more recent times.     

Study of directivity effect on electromagnetic emissions in the HF band as earthquake precursors: Preliminary results on field observations

This work focuses on the use of electromagnetic emissions (EM) in the HF band as a warning event for earthquakes. EM at HF components 41 MHz and 46 MHz were monitored and recorded from eight field stations in Greece and correlated with seismological events. Directivity effect raised since EM emissions at specific station locations were correlated to earthquake events from prescribed regions. EM recordings during 1999 were used and by visual inspection were associated to most of the earthquake events greater than 5R. Using these observations a novel algorithm based on the ratio of short term to long term signal average, together with a prediction rules set derived from 1999's EM emissions study were developed to combine results from several field stations. Performance of the system was promising, but was dependent on the geographic area of interest. Overall performance for earthquakes events of magnitude greater than 5.7 R was 75% of seismic events were correctly predicted by EM activity, while 25% were not predicted.     

Energy flux of strong earthquakes

In this paper, the energy flux of strong earthquakes at a station is determined considering the progressive rupture of a fault as the source of earthquakes. It is found that the motion of the source and the relative position of the station with respect to the fault are important in determining the energy density, the energy flux and the duration of the earthquake at this station. There is a “sphere of influence” beyond which the source may be assumed to be stationary. The analytical results are in good agreement with those of the 5 strong motion records obtained very near the fault from the Parkfield event of 27th June, 1966. 21 strong motion records are studied for energy densities at the stations from which a magnitude-energy relationship is obtained which agrees closely with other existing relationships.     

Possible precursors in groundwater ions and gases content in Kamchatka (Russia)

For many years, hydrogeochemicals have been collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the most common ions and gases in the groundwater of five deep wells in the Southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula. In the last decade, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 occurred at distances less than 250 km from these wells. In order to reveal possible precursors of these earthquakes we analysed the hydrogeochemicals collected. The quasi-periodic annual variation was filtered out, together with other slow trends, and then we smoothed out the high frequency fluctuations that arise from the errors in a single measurement. When examining the filtered and smoothed data, we labelled each signal with an amplitude greater than three times the standard deviation as an irregularity and we made a first attempt at defining an anomaly as an irregularity which occurs simultaneously in more than one type of ion or gas at each well. In a second definition we used the existence of an irregularity occurring simultaneously in each type of ion or gas at more than one well. Then we chose the minimum time interval between two successive earthquakes as the maximum temporal window between a possible anomaly and the subsequent earthquake. Concerning the ions content, we identified a total of 16 anomalies with 11 successes and 5 failures; for the gases content we identified a total of 25 anomalies with 9 successes and 16 failures. On the basis of the criteria chosen we find the possibility that the successes of ion contents as earthquake precursors is high; but in contrast there is a only small possibility that the successes in gases content are precursors.     

Three-dimensional earthquake locations and upper crustal structure of the Sannio-Matese region (southern Italy)

The Sannio-Matese region is one of the most seismically active regions of Italy and has been struck by large historical earthquakes. At present, the area is characterized by low magnitude background seismicity and small seismic sequences following M4 main events. In this paper, we show Vp and Vp/Vs models and 3D locations for a complete set of earthquakes occurring in the period 1991–2001. We observe a significant crustal heterogeneity, with large scale east-verging high Vp fault-related-folds, stacked by the Pliocene compression. The relocated earthquakes cluster along a 70° east-dipping, NW-striking plane located at the border of the high Vp thrust units. Normal fault earthquakes related to the young and active extension occur within these high Vp zones, interpreted as high strength material. We expect large future earthquakes to occur within these high Vp zones actually characterized by low magnitude seismicity at their borders.     

Seismogenic Tectonics and Dynamics of the 2011 Ms5.9 Yingjiang Earthquake in Yunnan,China

In the southern South–North Seismic Zone, China, seismic activity in the Yingjiang area of western Yunnan increased from December 2010, and eventually a destructive earthquake of Ms5.9 occurred near Yingjiang town on 10 March 2011. The focal mechanism and hypocenter location of the mainshock suggest that the Dayingjiang Fault was the site of the mainshock rupture. However, most of foreshocks and all aftershocks recorded by a portable seismic array located close to the mainshock occurred along the N–S-striking Sudian Fault, indicating that this fault had an important influence on these shocks. Coulomb stress calculations show that three strong(magnitude ≥5.0) earthquakes that occurred in the study region in 2008 increased the coulomb stress along the plane parallel to the Dayingjiang Fault. This supports the Dayingjiang Fault, and not the Sudian Fault, as the seismogenic fault of the 2011 Ms5.9 Yingjiang earthquake. The strong earthquakes in 2008 also increased the Coulomb stress at depths of ≤5 km along the entire Sudian Fault, and by doing so increased the shallow seismic activity along the fault. This explains why the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2011 Yingjiang earthquake were located mostly on the Sudian Fault where it cuts the shallow crust. The earthquakes at the intersection of the Sudian and Dayingjiang faults are distributed mainly along a belt that dips to the southeast at ~40°, suggesting that the Dayingjiang Fault in the mainshock area also dips to the southeast at ~40°.     

A synthetic method for earthquake prediction by multidisciplinary data

China Metropolitan area around Beijing is one of the earthquake test sites in Continental China. Through more than 20 years of hard work, abundant seismic, geological, geophysical and geochemical data have been obtained, and the variation of seismic, geophysical and geochemical parameters was recorded before several strong earthquakes and some moderate earthquakes in this area. In this paper, we chose 19 high qualified observatory parameters in this area to establish a multidisciplinary system for earthquake forecast, including apparent resistivity, ground water level, ground-level, tilt, radon content in groundwater, volumetric strain, Hg content in groundwater, low frequency electric signal. We calculate the synthetic information by a simple algorithm. The procedure is: firstly, we detect the abnormal intervals of the observatory data by some data analysis methods such as filtering, differencing, etc.; secondly, we endow the value of 1 to the abnormal intervals and 0 to other intervals and produce a new time series of data set of the ith parameter; thirdly, we compose the value of the new time series of 19 observatory parameters and obtain the normalized value as called synthetic information. The result shows that there are high correlations between the high synthetic information and the earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in this area. The earthquakes almost occurred several days to several months after the peak value of the synthetic information. This synthetic method might be taken for a short-term prediction method for M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in this area.     

Analysis of a spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata Prefecture, Japan

On October 23, 2004, a series of powerful earthquakes with a maximum M _w = 6.6 located near the western coast of northern Honshu struck parts of northern Japan, particularly Niigata Prefecture; these earthquakes were known as the Chuetsu event. Thousands of landslides, as a secondary geotechnical hazard associated with these earthquakes, were triggered over a broad area; these landslides were of almost all types. The purpose of this study was to detect correlations between landslide occurrence with geologic and geomorphologic conditions, slope geometry, and earthquake parameters using two indexes based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In the study area, the landslide–area ratio (LAR), which is defined as the percentage of the area affected by landslides, was 2.9%, and the landslide concentration (LC), the number of landslides per square kilometer, was 4.4 landslides/km², which is much more than other reported cases of seismic activity with the same magnitude. This was possibly due to heavy rainfall just before the Chuetsu earthquakes. Statistical analyses show that LAR has a positive correlation with slope steepness and distance from the epicenter, while LC is inversely correlated with distance from the epicenter. The Wanazu Formation had the most concentrated landslide activity, followed by the Kawaguchi, Ushigakubi, Shiroiwa and Oyama Formations, although the Wanazu Formation occupied only 4.5% of the total area of geological units. With 8.2% of the area affected by seismic landslides, the Kawaguchi Formation had the highest LAR. It was followed by the Shiroiwa, Ushigakubi and Wanazu Formations with LAR ranging from 4.6% to 6.0%. For lots of geological subunits, landslides are more frequent in a range of slope angles between 15° and 40°. The susceptibility to landsliding of each geologic unit was thus evaluated to correlate with slope steepness. It was also noted that the effects of the earthquakes were made far worse by antecedent rainfall conditions induced by a␣typhoon, and further research emphasizing the role of antecedent rainfall was discussed.     

Attenuation in Southeastern Carpathians area: Result of upper mantle inhomogeneity

The systematic analysis of seismograms recorded on the Romanian territory using Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes shows a strong asymmetric pattern relative to the epicentral area: on one side, in the Transylvanian Basin and the Eastern Carpathians (approximately along the inner volcanic chain), the amplitudes are reduced by a factor of 20 on average and the high frequencies are attenuated, in contrast with the other side, in the foreland platform. This pattern is explained by a significant attenuation increase caused by a strong lateral variation of the structure in the upper mantle, immediately towards NW of the Vrancea seismic active volume. This region corresponds to the most recent volcanic activity in the Persani Mountains and with the low-velocity body adjacent toward NW to the high-velocity body subducted beneath Vrancea area as indicated by seismic tomography and heat flow results. The CALIXTO'99 tomography experiment, deployed for 6 months in 1999, provides the largest number of observations for Vrancea earthquakes ever recorded on the Romanian territory. We select data from 8 earthquakes generated in this time interval in the Vrancea nest, which were recorded with signal / noise ratio greater than 5 by at least 25 stations. All of them are small- to moderate-magnitude events (3.6 ≤ M_w ≤ 4.2). The attenuation is much more important in the high-frequency range (> 1 Hz), than at low frequencies. Since the large Vrancea earthquakes can radiate significant energy in the low-frequency range (< 1 Hz), our results show that the seismic hazard level is much more uniform all over the Romanian territory in the low-frequency range than in the high-frequency range.     

A robust satellite technique for monitoring seismically active areas: The case of Bhuj–Gujarat earthquake

A robust satellite data analysis technique (RAT) has been recently proposed as a suitable tool for satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions and already successfully tested in different cases of earthquakes (both high and medium–low magnitudes).In this paper, the efficiency and the potentialities of the RAT technique have been tested even when it is applied to a wide area with extremely variable topography, land coverage and climatic characteristics (the whole Indian subcontinent). Bhuj–Gujarat's earthquake (occurred on 26th January 2001, M_S  7.9) has been considered as a test case in the validation phase, while a relatively unperturbed period (no earthquakes with M_S ≥ 5, in the same region and in the same period) has been analyzed for confutation purposes. To this aim, 6 years of Meteosat-5 TIR observations have been processed for the characterization of the TIR signal behaviour at each specific observation time and location.The anomalous TIR values, detected by RAT, have been evaluated in terms of time–space persistence in order to establish the existence of actually significant anomalous transients. The results indicate that the studied area was affected by significant positive thermal anomalies which were identified, at different intensity levels, not far from the Gujarat coast (since 15th January, but with a clearer evidence on 22nd January) and near the epicentral area (mainly on 21st January). On 25th January (1 day before Gujarat's earthquake) significant TIR anomalies appear on the Northern Indian subcontinent, showing a remarkable coincidence with the principal tectonic lineaments of the region (thrust Himalayan boundary).On the other hand, the results of the confutation analysis indicate that no meaningful TIR anomalies appear in the absence of seismic events with M_S ≥ 5.     

Evaluation of deep crustal earthquakes in northern Germany – Possible tectonic causes

We present new evidence for seven deep crustal, intraplate earthquakes in northern Germany, a region regarded as an area of low seismicity. From 2000 to 2018, seven earthquakes with magnitudes of M_L 1.3–3.1, were detected at depths of 17.0–31.4 km. By placing the earthquake hypocentres in a geological three‐dimensional model, we can correlate two of the earthquakes with the Thor Suture, a major fault zone in this area. Five of the earthquakes group in the lower crust near the Moho, which implies that parts of the lower crust and the crust/mantle boundary in northern Germany act as a structural discontinuity on which deformation localizes. Numerical simulation implies that stress changes due to glacial isostatic adjustment most likely triggered these deep crustal earthquakes.